Category: Niyi Akinnaso

Niyi Akinnaso

 

Since the COVID-19 arrived in Nigeria on February 27, 2020, the virus has continued to spread by jumping from one person to the other in droplets emitted by an infected person through the nose (when sneezing) or mouth (when speaking, shouting, crying, or singing). As the infection spreads, some are killed, while others are spared.

Everyone is at the risk of infection but the elderly and particularly those with pre-existing conditions (such as, heart, lung, and kidney disease) are most likely at the risk of death from the virus.

For three months, from February 28 to May 31, 2020, as many as 10,162 persons had been infected in the country, resulting in 287 deaths. This shows that the figures had been rising steadily, hitting 553 on May 30, 2020. By this time, contact tracing was getting complicated as it was clear that community spread had already set it.

Unfortunately, this was precisely the time when the Federal Government eased the lockdown, allowing more places, including churches and mosques, to reopen, subject to existing protocols. Notable features in the month of June include: (1) the prevalence of youth and middle age infections; (2) the recording of 15,500 cases within a single month, indicating an astronomical rise in the number of infections and confirming the scale of community spread; and (3) pushing Nigeria to the third most infected country on the continent after South Africa and Egypt.

These figures show that there were more cases in June alone than in the preceding three months! Besides, half of all coronavirus fatalities so far occurred in the month of June.

Yet, by July 1, 2020, the Federal Government bowed to pressure from road transport workers, domestic airline operators, private school proprietors, and, of course, the deteriorating economy to approve, among others, (1) movement across state boundaries outside curfew hours of 10pm-4am; (2) the commencement of domestic aviation services; and (3) the resumption of graduating classes (Primary 6, JSS3, and SS3) to prepare for their final examinations.

True, the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19, which announced the commencement of these activities, provided guidelines, emphasising necessary measures to mitigate infections, it did not provide information about monitoring and evaluation to ensure that the necessary measures were in place and remained in place in schools that were reopened. Worse still, no exact date was given for school reopening against which states should prepare their schools.

Similarly, nothing was said about what the rate of infection should look like in any state that wished to reopen schools. It will be recalled, for example, that the American Center for Disease Control recommended at least 14 days of declining infection rate for states to relax their lockdown.

The southern states, which flouted this recommendation by reopeing early are not rueing the consequences of their action as they are struggling to cope with high positivity and hospitalization rates.

The discussion about school reopening has not even started. Even President Trump’s suggestion that schools should reopen in the Fall (that is, September) has been rebuffed or totally ignored.

The gaps discussed above were there to explore by wayward governors, such as the Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, who went ahead  to reopen schools for graduating students on Monday, July 6, 2020, even as the infection rate spiked in his state, pushing it to third position among highly infected states in the country.

Neither his and six other Governors’ positive tests and treatment for COVID-19 nor the painful death of his predecessor due to the virus could make him pause for the coronavirus graph in his state to start falling. It will be recalled that it was in Oyo that over 100 workers in a single factory tested positive for the virus.

Makinde also learned nothing from the proactive stance of the Lagos State Government, which decided on August as the tentative date for the resumption of graduating students. Nor did Makinde learn anything from international cases (China, South Korea, Australia, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Israel), where schools had to close again shortly after reopening, because school children and teachers were infected by the virus. These are countries in which the guidelines for school reopening were strictly followed.

What is even more worrisome in the Nigerian case is the absence of a monitoring and evaluation measure to ensure that the guidelines for school reopening were followed.

Although made-for-TV images on Monday indicated some level of compliance with necessary guidelines in an ill-equipped school in Oyo state, the overgrown shrub around the school was being mowed even as classes were going on in a classroom. It is unclear what would happen after the press crew has left.

To further complicate the politics of school reopening, the PTF confirmed on July 6, 2020, that the spread of the virus in Nigeria may not peak until September.

If that is the case, why rush school reopening now,?  If nothing else, this information about the possible peak of the virus in September leads us to consider a few facts.

First, as indicated above, schools have had to be closed again in many countries, where they were reopened, because not only were school children infected, they got really sick and some of them died!

Second, the risk of infection in school is very high, because children, teachers, and otherworkers often come from different homes with varying conditions.

Some might bring the infection to school and transmit it to others, who, in turn, will take it home and infect adults, including elderly parents or grandparents.

Third, with poor facilities in public schools and lack of essential personal protective equipment for teachers, it is difficult to guarantee that infected teachers will not transmit the virus to others in school in the midst of high community spread as at now.

Fourth, it is dangerous to put the economy and politics over public safety in the face of a pandemic. The world is witnessing the fallout of such a mistake in the United States, where President Donald Trump pushed for early reopening the country, leading to the ongoing dangerous spikes in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in over 30 states!

Finally, although testing centres are expanding in Nigeria, hospital beds are not keeping pace with the rate of infection. As infection cases rise, the tracing, tracking, and treating protocol will collapse. This is, therefore, not the time to allow Covid to go to school.

By Niyi Akinnaso

This essay has two apparently contradictory messages. On the one hand, it affirms that the coronavirus disease, otherwise known as COVID-19, is not necessarily a death sentence.

There are countries, such as Uganda and Vietnam, which have recorded no deaths so far, despite confirmed cases of coronavirus.

Although over 500 deaths have been recorded in Nigeria, nearly double that number has recovered from the disease. But that is only one side of the story.

On the other hand, the coronavirus disease is a death bomb for certain individuals who are infected. That’s why over half a billion people so far have died of the virus worldwide.

True, people with pre-existing conditions, such as heart, lung, or kidney disease, are at greater risk of death, the data so far show that the virus can kill just about anybody.

Yet, there is neither a certified cure nor a vaccine against the virus as of today.

In the search for cure or vaccine, researchers have studied the behaviour of the virus in the last six months, while others have studied selected autopsies of dead victims, in order to understand why so many people have died of the virus. Such knowledge is necessary in order to develop an effective cure or vaccine.

Three findings stand out. First, there is no doubt that the coronavirus is capable of laying its victims to waste as it can cause massive devastation of various organs.

When the virus enters through the mouth, nose, or eyes, its first home is the upper respiratory tract. The virus binds to particular receptors and begin to replicate itself.

The receptors, technically known as Ace-2, help in regulating blood pressure. They are common in the upper respiratory tract but are also found in the lungs, heart, kidney, intestine, blood vessels, and even the brain.

Research shows that the virus may migrate from this initial binding to the receptors in the other organs listed above.

The presence of the virus in these receptors, especially those in the blood lining, may be the reason for the unusually excessive clotting of the blood and why patients with hypertension and diabetes are at very high risk.

Worse still, Ace-2 receptors may help the virus reach as far as the brain, where it binds to the Ace-2 receptors in the brain.

This may well explain some of the bizzare symptoms of the virus, such as loss of taste and smell, erratic breathing, irregular heartbeat, seizures, stroke, and even nervous breakdown.

Second, it has been found that it is not the virus alone, which kills its victims. The body’s defence mechanism deployed in fighting the virus can overreact and cause death.

Here, in a nutshell, is how it happens. When a pathogen (virus, bacterium, or any other microorganism) enters the body, immune cells are attracted to the point of infection to destroy the intruder.

A protein, technically known as cytokine, is released by the body to coordinate the body’s response to the intruder.

In the process, excess white blood cells are produced, which rush to the point of infection to fight it. Inflammation follows as part of the process of healing the body from the infection.

Unfortunately, however, the body’s immune system can overreact, leading to a “cytokine storm”, whereby excess immune cells are produced, leading to hyper-inflammation.

In the process, the body is destroyed along with the virus. The patient may get better and even test negative for the virus, while still in hospital.

However, multiple organs may have been destroyed and blood pressure may drop to dangerous levels. When a patient gets to this level, death often follows.

A third major finding helps to explain why individuals vary in their reaction to coronavirus infection, that is, why some die while others survive, even in old age.

First, although humans share the same genes, the ways in which the genes are regulated in the body differ from person to person.

Therefore, many victims of coronavirus may weather the storm and survive the infection, while others succumb to it, depending on their genetic makeup.

Genetic variation may also explain why Ace-2 receptors are expressed differently in different organ tissues, depending on the individual.

As indicated earlier, the underlying condition of the various organs is also a critical factor. That’s why those with preexisting conditions are at much greater risk.

However, as the above findings and the data on coronavirus deaths show, there have been people with no preexisting condition, who nevertheless still died of the virus. Not just old people, but young folks as well.

It is natural for readers of this essay to ask: What’s the treatment or what’s the best treatment? The simple truth is that, as of today, there is no cure for coronavirus.

Each case is often managed as it comes and as the patient’s condition deteriorates. This is not to say that there are no treatment options.

The naked truth is that no option has been found to completely prevent death in all patients or even in the majority of patients.

That leaves you and me with the non-pharmaceutical option of following the WHO-sanctioned guidelines, provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and echoed repeatedly by the Presidential Task Force on COVID 19:

• Stay at home, if you are not working or on essential service.
• Wear face masks, if you go out. You should even wear one at home, if you are coughing or sneezing or if someone in your household is.
• Maintain physical distancing of at least six feet (ese bata mefa) whenever you go out.
• Avoid touching your mouth, nose, or eyes.
• Wash your hands frequently with soap or alcohol-based sanitizer.
• Main good overall hygiene at all times, including occasionally wiping door handles, remote controls, and your phones, with disinfectant.

In addition, the oga among us must ensure that their aides, drivers, cooks, gardeners, and other dependents or co-workers follow these guidelines.

They must work with leaders in their primary or secondary communities to educate people about the existence and prevalence of this virus and to let them know that it can kill.

For now, following these mitigation measures is our best bet. To put it in another way, the best cure for coronavirus for now is NOT to catch the disease at all.

By Niyi Akinnaso

In a country where underachievement is pervasive and the government treasury continues to leak, it has become customary for journalists and armchair columnists to focus on negative developments. Yet, there are one or two trailblazers deserving of attention. The Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board is one such institution. Yet, much less has been written to highlight the Boards achievements, because the Nigerian press has typically interpreted its role of holding the government and its institutions accountable to mean that we must look for something to criticise or condemn.

To be sure, JAMB has been the focus of media attention for various reasons since its establishment in 1978. Up until 2016, when Professor Ishaq Oloyede was appointed as the new Executive Secretary of the Board, much of the report on JAMB had been negative. That negative focus welcomed Oloyede into office and continued through his first year in office.

A retrospective analysis of JAMB’s activities since 2016 to date reveals several major achievements, which were unprecedented in the history of the Board. These achievements were neither foreseen nor understood when the new Registrar began a comprehensive overhaul of the Board’s activities. In the process, the media focused on the gaps and lapses, which the overhaul revealed, while also criticising the Board for innovations that would eventually be widely accepted because they are found to be extremely beneficial.

The first major development was the reorganisation of the Board’s activities through the deployment of new technologies, which allowed the Board to streamline and speed up the processes of registration and verification of results; to detect abuse in Computer Based Test Centers both by Center owners and test takers; to administer the distribution of admission spaces in a fair, equitable, and transparent manner; to ramp up capacity building in specific areas for its staff; and to save operational and management costs.

A few examples will suffice. First, by closely monitoring CBT Centers and test takers over the years, JAMB had discovered and delisted defaulting CBTs, while also cancelling the results of test cheaters and prosecuting them, where necessary. It is now nearly impossible for fake candidate to stand in for a genuine applicant. The ultimate goal is to make the UTME error-free, rigorous, fair, and reliable enough for tertiary institutions.

A second development is the elimination of the old-fashioned methods of using scratch card, third parties, such as Cybercafes, and text messaging for checking UTME results. JAMB has now gone fully digital with the result verification process. Students can now check and even print their results for free from the comfort of their homes by logging on the Board’s website at www.jamb.gov.ng. After three simple steps, the result slip could be printed: One, click on QUICK LINKS. Two, click on E Facility. Three, provide your registration details and click on check my results. Bingo! Your result notification slip will be displayed for printing.

A third major innovation is the Central Admissions Processing System. It is an automated system for all institutions in the country to conduct their admissions. This system has three major advantages. First, it takes JAMB out of the show and leaves the sole authority for recommending candidates for admission to the respective institutions—universities, polytechnics, colleges of education, and so on.

Two, the system eliminates the institutions’ portals from conducting admission, which led to flagrant abuse of the admission process in the past. It also eliminates under-the-table admissions by ensuring that only candidates admitted through CAPS will be issued their admission letters on JAMB’s official letterhead.

JAMB has developed JAMB CAPS Mobile App for students to be able to login in with the phone number they had used for the UTME registration. After logging in and following the appropriate prompts, an OTP code will be sent to the provided mobile number. Once the code is entered and verified, the candidate’s admission notification will be displayed.

Some, including me, had argued in the past that JAMB’s duty should have ended with the conduct of the UTME and left the universities to make their own selections. There were even critical spats at JAMB for going beyond its mandate by policing the exams. Only those who have attended JAMB’s policy meetings in the last three years would appreciate the extent of exam malpractices and the extent of abuse of the admission process by various institutions. The truth is that the education system is not exempt from the endemic and systemic corruption in the country. That’s why, to some extent, JAMB has to continue to function more or less as the EFCC of the admission process. It may not be the best thing to do but it is the only option available for now. And it is working!

Perhaps the most astonishing achievement of JAMB since Oloyede took over its administration is the return of billions of Naira to government coffers every year since 2017, in compliance with the mandate to MDAs to remit their operating surpluses to the Treasury Single Account. So far, in four annual tranches, JAMB had remitted over N28 billion. As reward for good service, the government gave the Board part of the refunds to overhaul its infrastructure. The government also gave part of the excess funds to the UTME applicants, by reducing the cost of application from N5,000 to N3,500.

JAMB has wisely invested its own share of the money in enhancing its technology; building mega CBT Centers across the country; in developing a question bank; in staff training; and in creating several innovations to meet the COVID-19 contingencies, such as the e-facilities for checking results and for setting up appointments at zonal and state JAMB offices.

Also as part of its own corporate responsibility toward combating COVID-19, JAMB has donated ventilators, PPEs, and other medical equipment, worth millions of Naira, to the University of Abuja Teaching Hospital. It also took care of its staff nation-wide by purchasing ventilators, environmental disinfectant safety sprayers, and vehicle-mounted disinfectant sprayers from the National Agency for Science Engineering Infrastructure to sanitise its workers daily across the nation.

It is interesting to note that JAMB’s performance in the last four years has led ASUU and university authorities to shift the tune from talks of university autonomy to how JAMB could share the money it makes with the universities as intervention funds, for example, to improve Internet connectivity on campuses!

Niyi Akinnaso

 

WHEN I arrived at the Noi Bai International Airport in Hanoi, Vietnam, on April 11, 2019, one thought dominated my mind: How far along the path to recovery has the country come after at least two decades of civil war (1955-1975), which eventually involved its immediate neighbours and, more importantly, the United States, China, and the old Soviet Union?

This thought became dominant because of the devastating effects of the war on lives and property. Over 2 million Vietnamese were killed in the war; 3 million were wounded; and 22 million became refugees. The war also demolished the country’s infrastructure and economy. I could not but ask myself how such a country could recover from such a ruinous war, which lasted nearly seven times as long as the Nigerian civil war (1967-1970) and inflicted much less damage?

It took only a few hours to realise the high quality of governance at every level and how disciplined a society Vietnam is. A tour of the country showed how much national improvement had resulted from these traits. To be sure, there are motor vehicles of different shapes and sizes, motorcycles (okada) are still the predominant mode of personal transportation. They dominate the streets, even in the biggest cities, such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Yet, in nearly two weeks spent in both cities, not a single accident was reported.

What is most encouraging about Vietnam is the people’s entrepreneurial spirit, which mirrors the government’s enterprising adventures. After the war, the government embarked early on egalitarian land distribution and equitable economic policies aimed at improving living standards and reducing inequality. And the people seized the opportunity and worked the land. Once a poor country, the relative poverty rate in Vietnam quickly became less than that of China, India, and the Philippines. Today, Vietnam is a middle-level country.

For quite some time, agriculture was the mainstay of the economy. Today, Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of cashew nuts; the largest producer of black pepper; and the second largest rice exporter in the world.

However, the country has since moved beyond agriculture. Today, light manufacturing, information technology, and high-tech industries are a large and fast-growing part of the national economy due to huge investments in science and technology in recent years.

Against the above backgrounds, I was curious to know how Vietnam has been coping with the coronavirus pandemic, especially given its shared border and trade ties with China. The findings show a country that is proactive, plans well, executes its plans, has the trust of the citizens, and strives to be self-sustained in its COVID-19 containment and treatment strategies.

As of June 15, 2020, the total confirmed cases in Vietnam is 334 out of which 303 have been treated and discharged. Not a single death has been recorded. Yet, Vietnam is a country of about 95 million people. How did this happen?

There are several major factors. First, Vietnamese authorities were aware of the pandemic very early and started planning before they even had their index case on January 23, 2020.

Second, after monitoring the situation in China for a few days after the index case, Chinese tourists were quickly banned from entering Vietnam and all foreign nationals were later banned from entering the country. Strict quarantine and testing measures were put in place for returning nationals.

Third, drastic and people-centric strategies were developed and strict quarantine measures were enforced, especially in communities with even a single reported case.  Each local administration meticulously traced every single person who may have been infected with the virus and quarantined entire streets as well as villages even over a single case.

At the same time, hospital capacity was beefed up to cope with possible cases. Bed spaces, health workers, and Personal Protective Equipment were meticulously monitored to prevent overflow or shortages.

Fourth, the authorities effectively mobilized the strength and the participation of both the government and the citizenry in making COVID-19 prevention a priority. Wearing face masks, washing hands with soap or sanitizer frequently, maintaining physical distancing, and avoiding large gatherings quickly became the new normal. Both the government and the people did not mind sacrificing immediate economic benefits to protect people’s health and lives.

Fifth, rather than rely on China for medical supplies and testing kits, the Vietnamese authorities turned to their scientists and factories as early as January. Testing kits were developed by Military Medical University and Viet A Company. The Ministry of Science and Technology funded the projects and the kits were licensed by the Ministry of Health. They also produced their own PPEs

The COVID-19 testing kits they produced provide result within an hour with a 90 percent accuracy. The testing kits use the Real-Time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) method, and have passed European Standards. They also have been recognized by the Emergency Use Listing procedure of the World Health Organization.

The testing kits, which are said to be adaptable with multiple types of testing equipment, went into mass production in March. The kits are exclusively ordered by a distribution partner and are now being used in many countries, including the UK, the US, India, and Mexico. Over 20 countries and territories are said to be negotiating for the purchase of the testing kits from Vietnam.

What is particularly significant about the Vietnamese approach is the early decision to decentralise the containment and treatment efforts. Local communities have been in the forefront of the fight against COVID-19 in Vietnam, quickly identifying infected persons, tracing, tracking, and treating them, where necessary.

The high degree of compliance with appropriate mitigation measures also played a major role in Vietnam’s success. It is most unfortunate that Nigerians still have to be educated about how deadly COVID-19 is when the number of Nigerians killed so far by the virus far exceeds the total number of infections in Vietnam.

With infections rising and killing more and more people, it is high time to mount widespread public education to reduce the level in public ignorance and increase compliance with mitigation measures. Without a doubt, the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 has preached the necessary sermons. The situation is now beyond sermonisation. It is now time for real grassroots education at the community level.

 

 

 

Niyi Akinnaso

I argued last week why schools should not reopen until September 1, 2020. The basic reason is that the transmission of COVID-19 in various communities across the country is on the increase. Worse still, the outcome is at present so unpredictable that no permanent arrangements can be made about the immediate future, not least about reopening schools.

Here’s how the Secretary to the Government of the Federation and Chairman of the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19, Boss Mustapha, put it to a Senate Committee barely 48 hours ago: “I must say that the virus is still very dangerous. We have not peaked; we have to meticulously plan. There is no timeline; that is why money is not being thrown at it just because it has been released … We don’t know how long this will take us. Even the budget that the National Coordinator mentioned is for a period of six months. We do not know how long it will take us”.

Knowing what we know today about the behaviour of the COVID-19; the incredulity of many Nigerians about the virus; and the non-compliance of most Nigerians with the WHO-supported mitigation measures established by the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control, it will be foolhardy to think of reopening schools earlier than September. Neither the science not the data of COVID-19 in Nigeria today leads us to think of reopening schools soon.

Even in advanced countries, such as the United Kingdom, which hurriedly reopened some primary schools, have had to recant. Many of Britain’s primary schools vowed not to reopen, while the discussion about reopening secondary schools have not even started.

Some universities in the UK, such as Cambridge University, have even cancelled in-class meetings (save for a few exceptional cases) and moved classes wholly online for the 2020/21 academic session. Some American Universities, such as the 23 campuses of the California State University system, have followed suit.

There are three problems with reopening schools in Nigeria, where many dormitory rooms are as overcrowded as classrooms. First, the infrastructure for maintaining physical distancing and washing hands with soap every now and then is not available in most schools.

Second, parents, teachers, and students often come from different parts of the country to many of the nation’s schools, especially in the cities. With the confession of the PTF that Nigerians are refusing to show up for testing, who knows what many of them will bring to the schools, if they were reopened while the infections are spiking without an end in sight?

Third, apart from talking about planning for a staggered reopening of schools at some point in the future, what exactly has the federal and state ministries of education done in terms of preparations? Are there enough masks for the schoolchildren? What about PPEs for the teachers, administrators, and other school aides?

What role are teachers playing in the government’s plans to reopen schools, whenever it happens? Have federal and state governments discussed with teachers and parents the social, psychological, and financial needs that should be met before schools are reopened?

As for the universities, the idea of online learning is nothing more than self-deception on the part of government and many universities in the country, because neither the infrastructure nor the trained personnel is available in most public universities. Even in private universities, such as Elizade University, which boast of successful online classes during the ongoing pandemic, the percentage of students who are able to participate effectively ranges from 30 to 70 percent.

If the situation could be that bad in the universities, imagine how poor it could be in primary and secondary schools. That’s why the idea of radio, TV, or online learning for primary and secondary schools during the ongoing pandemic is nothing more than a big joke. Of course, the government’s good intention should be acknowledged. Nevertheless, it is an intention that was never backed by necessary and appropriate resources. For students to learn profitably online, they should have been trained to do so during normal school time, not dumped on them in an emergency.

A critical step toward reopening the universities is being taken by the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board this month. The 2020 Policy Meeting for all tertiary institutions will hold online this year on June 16, 2020 out of respect for the NCDC’s COVID-19 protocol that prohibits large gatherings. The process of admission for 2020/21 follows the policy meeting and it traditionally takes three to six months from that date. It is at that meeting that heads of various institutions will agree on cut-off points for admission into various categories of tertiary institutions.

The critical question now is about those who have to take final exams, especially school-leaving and graduating exams. These are the ones I had in mind for a September reopening, and that only if it is possible. Schools could be open between September and December for such students to study for, and write, their exams, while the 2020/21 in-class academic session could begin in January 2021, with a modified school calendar of not more than 12 weeks per semester. In that case, the 2019/20 academic session would have been extended to December 2020 for final year students and lost by others to the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, this is a special circumstance to be negotiated with parents, teachers, and students by federal and state governments as well as proprietors. It will be unwise to simply assume that we should just move on like that as we are wont to do in Nigeria.

At this juncture, it is necessary to address a lingering question on many parents’ and students’ mind regarding this year’s WASSCE and NECO exams postponed owing to COVID-19. To the extent that in-class meetings are required for these exams. I don’t see any of them taking place before September 1.

A similar question is also on the minds of many University Vice Chancellors and Registrars. Some of them have been contemplating online final exams for their students. This is possible for those who have the infrastructure for mass video coverage, such as Webex, Zoom, Google Suite, and so on, to monitor the students. The problem, though, is that no one can guarantee that all students will have the necessary resources at their end to write online exams.