Covid goes to school

Niyi Akinnaso

Since the COVID-19 arrived in Nigeria on February 27, 2020, the virus has continued to spread by jumping from one person to the other in droplets emitted by an infected person through the nose (when sneezing) or mouth (when speaking, shouting, crying, or singing). As the infection spreads, some are killed, while others are spared.

Everyone is at the risk of infection but the elderly and particularly those with pre-existing conditions (such as, heart, lung, and kidney disease) are most likely at the risk of death from the virus.

For three months, from February 28 to May 31, 2020, as many as 10,162 persons had been infected in the country, resulting in 287 deaths. This shows that the figures had been rising steadily, hitting 553 on May 30, 2020. By this time, contact tracing was getting complicated as it was clear that community spread had already set it.

Unfortunately, this was precisely the time when the Federal Government eased the lockdown, allowing more places, including churches and mosques, to reopen, subject to existing protocols. Notable features in the month of June include: (1) the prevalence of youth and middle age infections; (2) the recording of 15,500 cases within a single month, indicating an astronomical rise in the number of infections and confirming the scale of community spread; and (3) pushing Nigeria to the third most infected country on the continent after South Africa and Egypt.

These figures show that there were more cases in June alone than in the preceding three months! Besides, half of all coronavirus fatalities so far occurred in the month of June.

Yet, by July 1, 2020, the Federal Government bowed to pressure from road transport workers, domestic airline operators, private school proprietors, and, of course, the deteriorating economy to approve, among others, (1) movement across state boundaries outside curfew hours of 10pm-4am; (2) the commencement of domestic aviation services; and (3) the resumption of graduating classes (Primary 6, JSS3, and SS3) to prepare for their final examinations.

True, the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19, which announced the commencement of these activities, provided guidelines, emphasising necessary measures to mitigate infections, it did not provide information about monitoring and evaluation to ensure that the necessary measures were in place and remained in place in schools that were reopened. Worse still, no exact date was given for school reopening against which states should prepare their schools.

Similarly, nothing was said about what the rate of infection should look like in any state that wished to reopen schools. It will be recalled, for example, that the American Center for Disease Control recommended at least 14 days of declining infection rate for states to relax their lockdown.

The southern states, which flouted this recommendation by reopeing early are not rueing the consequences of their action as they are struggling to cope with high positivity and hospitalization rates.

The discussion about school reopening has not even started. Even President Trump’s suggestion that schools should reopen in the Fall (that is, September) has been rebuffed or totally ignored.

The gaps discussed above were there to explore by wayward governors, such as the Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde, who went ahead  to reopen schools for graduating students on Monday, July 6, 2020, even as the infection rate spiked in his state, pushing it to third position among highly infected states in the country.

Neither his and six other Governors’ positive tests and treatment for COVID-19 nor the painful death of his predecessor due to the virus could make him pause for the coronavirus graph in his state to start falling. It will be recalled that it was in Oyo that over 100 workers in a single factory tested positive for the virus.

Makinde also learned nothing from the proactive stance of the Lagos State Government, which decided on August as the tentative date for the resumption of graduating students. Nor did Makinde learn anything from international cases (China, South Korea, Australia, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Israel), where schools had to close again shortly after reopening, because school children and teachers were infected by the virus. These are countries in which the guidelines for school reopening were strictly followed.

What is even more worrisome in the Nigerian case is the absence of a monitoring and evaluation measure to ensure that the guidelines for school reopening were followed.

Although made-for-TV images on Monday indicated some level of compliance with necessary guidelines in an ill-equipped school in Oyo state, the overgrown shrub around the school was being mowed even as classes were going on in a classroom. It is unclear what would happen after the press crew has left.

To further complicate the politics of school reopening, the PTF confirmed on July 6, 2020, that the spread of the virus in Nigeria may not peak until September.

If that is the case, why rush school reopening now,?  If nothing else, this information about the possible peak of the virus in September leads us to consider a few facts.

First, as indicated above, schools have had to be closed again in many countries, where they were reopened, because not only were school children infected, they got really sick and some of them died!

Second, the risk of infection in school is very high, because children, teachers, and otherworkers often come from different homes with varying conditions.

Some might bring the infection to school and transmit it to others, who, in turn, will take it home and infect adults, including elderly parents or grandparents.

Third, with poor facilities in public schools and lack of essential personal protective equipment for teachers, it is difficult to guarantee that infected teachers will not transmit the virus to others in school in the midst of high community spread as at now.

Fourth, it is dangerous to put the economy and politics over public safety in the face of a pandemic. The world is witnessing the fallout of such a mistake in the United States, where President Donald Trump pushed for early reopening the country, leading to the ongoing dangerous spikes in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in over 30 states!

Finally, although testing centres are expanding in Nigeria, hospital beds are not keeping pace with the rate of infection. As infection cases rise, the tracing, tracking, and treating protocol will collapse. This is, therefore, not the time to allow Covid to go to school.