The Nation Newspaper

Category: Niyi Akinnaso

  • The APC governorship primary in Ondo

    The APC governorship primary in Ondo

    The APC governorship primary election in Ondo state may have come. But it appears it is not gone yet, and it may not go for years to come. It should have been an uncontroversial victory for the declared winner, incumbent Governor Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa, had he and the party leaders handled the process differently. Instead of prosecuting it as a primary election, the Governor of Kogi State, Usman Ododo, who led the Primary Election Committee, allowed it to degenerate into a primary selection process, or perhaps that was his mandate. So did the co-aspirants and many voters across the state conclude.

    These two theses, namely, how Aiyedatiwa was declared winner and the role of the Ododo-led Primary Election Committee, need further clarification. Aiyedatiwa was said to have won in 16 of 18 local governments. He lost only in Ilaje, his own local government, to Olusola Oke, SAN, who hails from there as well. There was no election in Ifedore local government as Aiyedatiwa’s thugs were said to have scared voters away.

    At the end of the day, 48, 569 votes were allocated to Aiyedatiwa, while Samuel Akinfolarin was placed second with15,343 votes. Oke was said to have come third with 14,915 votes. It should be remembered that the same Akinfolarin had collapsed his support and organizational structure into Aiyedatiwa’s days before the election. The terms “allocated”, “was placed”, and “was said” signify the views of co-aspirants and voters, who alleged that there was no election, only concocted results.

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    This leads to the second thesis. The Ododo-led Committee was said to have done a hatchet job: The guidelines set out by the committee were not followed. Voting materials were not distributed as promised. Officials to supervise the election did not show up, and the few who showed up did so very late. Voting did not take place in many places, either because there were no voting materials, or officials did not show up, or voters were scared away by thugs. In a rerun election scheduled for Sunday in Okitipupa, which other aspirants had boycotted, the counting process was a novel mathematical exercise. In a viral video of the counting process in Okitipupa, the figures for Aiyedatiwa moved quickly to over 600 in a line of less than 100 people! Only the Election Committee could explain why a rerun was scheduled for Okitipupa alone and not for other local governments, such as Ifedore, where no votes were recorded due to violence. Why the election was scheduled for Sunday, when Christians would still be in church, is another matter.

    The truth is that the election need not have gone that way. On the one hand, Aiyedatiwa did not need all the fuss to win, because he was far ahead of the other contenders in many respects. One, he is the incumbent Governor in control of the states’ levers of power, from quid pro quo appointments to the state’s treasury. Two, he has more access to resources, including state resources. Over N30 billion had accrued to the state since he became Governor. Three, he has been running for Governor since he became Deputy Governor on February 25, 2021. Whether as part of his routine function as Governor or as part of his campaign, he has had opportunities to go round the state.

    As the campaign peaked, he allegedly bought several endorsements and covert support from state elders and party leaders to prospective voters, including youths and women. Fourth, he was much more visible than any other candidate throughout the state through billboards and paid advertisements. On many occasions, his thugs destroyed opponents’ billboards in order to maintain high visibility.

    On the other hand, the Election Committee did not help his case by bungling the process and depriving it of needed transparency. A situation in which aspirants had to pay the annual dues of members so they could participate in the primary election leaves much to be desired. While that happened even before the Committee was set up, the allocation of resources and votes by the committee further deepened suspicion as the gap between Aiyedatiwa and the rest of the field did not match the reality of the competition. Why Okitipupa Local Government with three aspirants, including Senator Jimoh Ibrahim, was deprived of personnel and material resources on the day of election was baffling. Even more inexplicable was the Committee’s decision to have a rerun election in Okitipupa and not in other LGAs, where voting did not take place. Worse still were election returns in places where voting did not take place at all.

    There are many lessons from the Ondo primary election for the APC as a political party, for Ondo voters, and for our democracy. This is the second controversial governorship primary election in a row. Both of them could have been avoided had the party leaders followed due process and allowed for a transparent procedure. There is nothing wrong with a direct primary. However, in this age of vote-bying, voting by secret ballot should be better than standing to be counted without regard to accuracy of figures.

    Democracy thrives on the ability of party leaders to ensure internal democracy and allow for a transparent process whereby party members go through a fair process of election or selection as a party nominee for elective office. Where a competition is allowed to take place, as in Edo and Ondo, the process should be fair, just, and credible, and be seen to be so.

    Two recurrent killers of our democracy are two apparently contradictory factors, namely, greed and poverty. Those who have are never satisfied. They want more. Those who don’t have want something. And what better time to satisfy both groups than election time, when consent and support are bought rather than earned?

    Fortunately, Ondo voters have moved beyond the provocation of a botched primary election as they await the governorship election in November. However, dissatisfaction festers among many contenders in the primary, some of whom are calling for the cancellation of the exercise. How the party handles their complaints may indicate whether or not Ondo state will join Ogun, Osun, and Oyo states, where the APC is riddled with factionalism. To be sure, their anger is directed more at the party than at Aiyedatiwa, the declared winner. Nevertheless, how Aiyedatiwa himself handles the victory allocated to him will be the beginning of his preparation for the November election. In this regard, he has lessons to learn from how the prostrating Ekiti State Governor, Abiodun Abayomi Oyebanji, turned a rancorous APC in Ekiti state into one amicable family.

  • When will prices begin to come down?

    When will prices begin to come down?

    The most recurrent response to my column last week on the appreciation of the Naira was a question: When will prices begin to come down? The question presupposes that Naira devaluation alone was responsible for rising prices. The investigation reported below shows otherwise.

    The good news, however, is that prices of some commodities have begun to adjust in line with the appreciation of the Naira, but only for certain products and only in certain areas. For example, Financial Derivatives Company Limited reported over the weekend that the prices of rice, flour, and noodles have begun to fall, although at varying rates. The Company’s Managing Director, Bismarck Rewane, added that prices will continue to reflect the Naira appreciation as more businesses begin to stock up at the new Naira/$ rate.

    However, investigations in Akure, the Ondo state capital, reveal limited corroboration, according to my team of investigators. The team investigated prices in various markets and stores, including three popular food markets (Isikan Market on Ondo Road, Shasha Market on Owo road, and the sprawling Oja Oba Market near the Oba’s palace); Supermarkets (notably, Shoprite, Ceci, and Vigeo); and various Household goods stores for electronics, electrical wares, plumbing, and furniture.

    Prices remain high everywhere. Prices of rice and flour have not adjusted for Naira appreciation in the Akure markets, but the price of noodles, especially the Indomie variety, has come down a little. It was also noted that certain items are cheaper in certain markets than in others. For example, fresh fruits and vegetables are cheaper in Shasha than in the other markets. Generally, Shasha prices are lower for foodstuff and meat products, because Shasha Market is a dropoff point for trucks bringing foodstuff from various locations. Even at that, Shasha prices now are higher than ever before. However, once foodstuff and fresh veggies make it to fancy shelves in Supermarkets, such as Shoprite, they get particularly overpriced. Prices of imported goods remain very high, much higher than similar goods produced locally. However, both are much higher than they were six months ago.

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    The more interesting findings, however, are why prices are not being adjusted in line with Naira appreciation. Some retailers, such as local market women are not aware of Naira appreciation, while others are skeptical. One retailer insisted that the whole Naira appreciation story is a gimmick. Another one, more informed, thinks that we should wait to see if Naira appreciation will be sustained. “I don’t want to lower my price today and have to raise it again tomorrow”, he said. When I explained that even Goldman Sacks, a global financial institution, has praised the Central Bank Governor, Yemi Cardoso, for his policies, and even predicted that the Naira may exchange for less than N1,000/$1 by the end of the year, the response was that they don’t know the Nigerian government.

    Some of these responses have their basis in trust deficit in government (see Trust deficit in Nigeria, The Nation, March 13, 2024). Others demonstrate the poverty of information from the government to the people, especially the non-reading public and the illiterate market women. If politicians could reach this population for votes, then the government should find ways to inform them of impactful activities.

    Another interesting finding from the investigations is that the value of the Naira is only one of several factors responsible for rising prices. Another major factor is the high cost of fuel, following the removal of fuel subsidy. Fuel is needed for transporting goods to the market and for powering generators in the absence of regular power supply. For example, fish sellers and cool drinks sellers from roadside kiosks insisted that they needed to add the cost of transport and refrigeration to their prices in order to make some profit.

    Since high fuel cost is a direct result of the removal of fuel subsidy, it follows that what traders need is beyond palliatives. They want the government to find a way to moderate the high cost of fuel in order to bring down food inflation, just as it has moderated the exchange rate to enhance the value of the Naira. This could be achieved by doubling up on local refineries. In this regard, Dangote and Port Harcourt refineries are welcome developments. Already, Dangote is said to have lowered the cost of diesel. Hopefully, it will reflect in price tags soon.

    There is yet another problem affecting the costs of foodstuff. Desertification and climate change are affecting farmers’ productivity in the so-called food basket zone, including Benue, Kogi, and Nassarawa states. In Benue State, for example, dry season farming is no longer profitable. A recent report in Premium Times shows how a previously fertile land has turned arid due to extreme heat, caused by climate change (Nigeria’s ‘food basket’ faces new foes, Premium Times, April 6, 2024). As a result, farmers are left to lament poor yield, like this farmer, cited in the report: “How can you cultivate 32 hectares of yam farm and you will not even be able to get up to 100 tubers of yam that you will sell?’. You can imagine that whatever this farmer is able to sell from his farm will attract a high price tag, regardless of fuel cost and the value of the Naira. Here again is an invitation to the government to provide more than fertilizers to farmers. Those in the food basket zone and up North want the government to pay more attention to climate change and provide solutions to their farming problems.

    There are at least two striking conclusions from this analysis. One, more patience is required for prices to come down, because there are many factors at play that have been driving up prices. In this regard, it is important to view food inflation in Nigeria today against a global trend in the last 25 years. Virtually nowhere have prices come fully down once they go up.

    Two, it would appear that the government is expected to do everything, partly in the belief that it caused the present problems with its policies and partly because of the dearth of infrastructure as a result of government negligence over the years. This is where banks too should be under the spotlight for their contribution to the seriously challenged economy from which they have managed to make astronomical profits. The 2023 financial reports of just six banks —Access, Zenith, GTCO, UBA, Stanbic, and Wema—show that, despite serious economic challenges, they generated profits worth over N3 trillion! All on our back, one way or the other.

  • Cardoso and renewed hope in the CBN

    Cardoso and renewed hope in the CBN

    Accept my hearty congratulations for your brilliant performance on ARISE TV today. The cadence and tone of your responses, added to your executive carriage, conveyed an image of the CBN we have not witnessed for a long time. You offered superior education to the nation and confidence to the international community. Well done!

    — Congratulatory message from me to Yemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank, on his impressive appearance on Arise TV on February 5, 2024.

    Thank you, Prof.

    — Response from Yemi Cardoso on February 6, 2024.

    I begin with this brief exchange of SMS messages with Yemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, for several reasons. First, I thought it was necessary to diffuse the overly critical stance of the press toward government officials, especially of the present administration. Yet, by initially refusing to understand the thrust of the policies Cardoso stated in his interview exchanges with Boason Omafaye, Anchor of Arise Xchange, on February 24, 2024, critics missed the clear outlines Cardoso provided for (a) removing distortions from the forex market in order to stabilise the Naira; (b) ensuring transparency and accountability; (c) controlling inflation; and (d) working toward necessary synergy between monetary and fiscal policies. They also missed or ignored his carriage, thoughtfulness, and tone of voice. I immediately wanted him to know that there were viewers, who listened to him with open mind. Appearing on Arise TV, generally regarded as adversarial to the ruling All Progressives Progress, was a very bold move, more or less like a Democrat (politician or political appointee) appearing on Fox News in the United States. It was even more creditable that Cardoso did so with candour and executive carriage. Credit also goes to Omafaye for probing, yet non-adversarial, questions, which elicited desired responses.

    Second, I wanted to use the exchange between us as part of the context for my assessment of what transpired since the interview. The assessment should be understood against the wider context of the malpractices that nearly wrecked the Central Bank under Cardoso’s immediate predecessor, Godwin Emefiele, and drove the economy aground. It should be recalled that Emefiele violated or abused the CBN Act in various ways, including abuse of Ways and Means to the tune of over N30 trillion; mismanaging intervention financing; loaning money to selected customers; redesigning the Naira, without going through proper processes; throwing the nation into cash scarcity with ill-advised currency swap; depleting the foreign reserve; accumulating a backlog of $7 billion in foreign exchange; and growing inflation from 8.2% to 22.41 %. Besides, Emefiele caused dislocations of monetary transmission, which often truncated the decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee. He also allowed liquidity challenges in the forex market to cause a significant gap between official and parallel exchange rates.

    However, to Cardoso’s credit, the only infraction he mentioned was in response to a question about a $7 billion uncleared foreign debt he met on ground. As of the time of the interview, Cardoso confirmed that he had cleared $2.4 billion of the debt, leaving only a balance of $2.2 billion, after forensic audit identified various infractions and irregularities with a whopping $2.4 billion of the supposed debt. Cardoso refrained from name calling on the debt; instead, he promised that the legitimate balance of $2.2 billion would soon be cleared.

    The good news is that Cardoso has kept his word on the inherited foreign debt: By the end of March 2024, the verified balance of $2.2 billion had been cleared. The effect was felt right away with the lowering of fares on foreign airlines, steady inflow of foreign investments, and remarkable increase in daily forex turnover.

    How did Cardoso mininize distortions in the forex market and achieve remarkable improvement in the value of the Naira? He developed several measures, four of which stand out. One, banks with large dollar holdings were given an ultimatum to put them back in the market and recapitalize their profit. Banks and forex dealers were also warned against reporting false exchange rates. More recently, the CBN also instructed banks to stop accepting foreign currencies as collateral for naira-denominated loans.

    Two, the CBN revoked the licenses of over 4,000 Bureax de Change Operators for failing to observe regulatory provisions. Furthermore, hundreds of illegitimate forex operators were closed down with the assistance of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission.

    Three, Money Transfer Operators were encouraged to send money through the formal channels. As a result, recipients of money transferred in foreign currency would receive the money in Naira, instead of the foreign currency denomination, which often drove recipients to BDCs for forex exchange. The new measure further reduced the access of BDCs to the dollar, and, therefore, the ability to manipulate the exchange rate.

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    Four, the duly registered BDC operators were allowed to buy a limited amount of dollars from the CBN every week, with a cap on how much they could sell to consumers. In the latest sales on Monday, April 8, 2024, the CBN sold $10,000 to each BDC at N1,101 to the dollar. It also directed BDC operators to sell the dollars at a spread not more than 1.5 percent above the purchase price. By closing the gap between the official and parallel market rates in the direction of the official rate, the Naira began to appreciate in value.

    As a result of these measures, the Naira now exchanges for only about N1,200/$1 in the parallel market, instead of a rate that went as high as 1,917/$1. With regular communication with banks, BDCs, and the public, CBN activities are getting more transparent than before.

    Reading between the lines, the measures taken so far by Cardoso’s CBN reveal some of the culprits behind the volatility of the foreign exchange market. They include banks and BDCs. The two institutions are largely responsible for the widening gap between official and parallel market rates. We now know why BDC operators parade banking halls, engaging in transactions with banks and their customers alike. We also now know that the humongous annual profit reported by banks comes largely from foreign exchange dealings. The game has changed as a new CBN policy now requires BDCs to report their forex sales at stipulated times, by paying in Naira to designated accounts. Sanctions also await banks, which engage in hoarding foreign currencies.

    With the Naira sharply appreciating in value as a result of these measures, critics, such as Peter Obi, must have regretted their premature forecast that “the (CBN’s) action will further escalate and worsen the exchange rate situation in the country”. Poor Obi; he recycled the same word-of-mouth recommendation—change the country from consumption to production, without explaining how, and why controlling forex volatility should not be the starting point.

  • Governors and palliatives

    Governors and palliatives

    By the end of August, 2023, media platforms—TV stations, newspapers, and social media—were full of stories, columns, opinions, questions, and suggestions about the nature, distribution, and potential effects of palliatives in providing some relief to those who were most affected by the removal of fuel subsidy. Such is the nature of the Nigerian press. A lot of noise is made at the inception of a programme or project, followed by dead silence. No one follows through to know how the programme or project has fared.

    Those who questioned the implementation of the palliative programme misdirected their questions at the Federal Government instead of the state governments which had taken custody of the funds. That’s why shortly after the palliatives were released to the states, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu himself made it clear that he could not give orders to state Governors about the distribution of the palliatives as that would undermine the federal system. Later in November, 2023, the Federal Minister of Information, Mohammed Idris Malagi, amplified this position by urging state Governors to use the funds as outlined and ensure the effective distribution of the palliatives to needy citizens.

    Today, eight months after the release of the funds, no one knows exactly how much was given to each state government as part of the palliative package not to speak of knowing how the funds were disbursed. At some point, the Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, mentioned a huge amount, which the Governors quickly contested, but without mentioning how much exactly they got.

    To be sure, there have been reports about the distribution of palliatives in some states; however, most states have been silent about such activities. The press quickly jumped at the deadly stampede during the distribution of palliatives in some states but asked no probing questions about the palliative funds and what else the affected state governments have done beyond distributing rice. For example, whatever happened to the funds for infrastructure and agricultural development? What about the N35,000 wage award for eligible recipients?

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    At the inception of the programme, there were talks of a register of those in need of assistance. Nothing else has been heard about whether or not such registers exist and in what states. At least that is the case in my own state of Ondo, where nothing has been heard about how much was received as palliative fund, who has received what, when, where, and how.

    What is known is that elaborate preparations were made by the administration of late Governor Rotimi Akeredolu. Unfortunately, however, the state was embroiled in power transition politics up to his death. One would have thought that the elaborate palliative programme would be implemented after the Governor’s obsequies, but all we hear about is the forthcoming governorship primary election, with Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa reportedly buying endorsements here and there.

    Accordingly, newspaper reports about the state have focused on the aspirants and speculations about their chances. Most of the speculations have been vacuous as none is based on verifiable qualifications, administrative or governance experience, domestic probity, personality traits, and verifiable opinion polls. Nevertheless, the question of who is most suited to rule the state in the near future is secondary to the focus of this essay.

    The central question is about the palliatives made available to the states within the last eight months or so. Three or four distinct entities have a duty to inform the public about which state got what and when as well as how and when the palliatives were disbursed.

    First, nothing prevents the Federal Government, through the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Services, Disaster Management, and Social Development or the National Bureau of Statistics from releasing ALL details about the palliative funds and materials disbursed to each state of the federation since August 2023 or so. One would have thought that, by now, data onda the palliatives per state should have been available online months ago. However, when I visited the website of the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs yesterday, the information under programmes and policies has not been updated since 2021!

    Second, each state and Local Government Area should tell its citizens how much was given in cash and in kind and how they were disbursed. Moreover, who gets how much cash and/or rice, when, and where? This means that a verifiable register of recipients should exist somewhere for curious citizens to see.

    Third, the media should probe this issue, by sending out investigative reporters to find answers to these questions from federal and state governments. True, many media houses are facing fund shortages for large-scale investigations. But then every newspaper has at least a reporter or correspondent in each state headquarters. They surely can do more than he-said, she-said in their reporting.

    Finally, instead of waiting to sue the federal or state governments for information, civil society and non-governmental organisations, such as the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project, interested in holding government accountable should first find out what data federal and state governments have on palliatives. That failing, they could then sue for the release of necessary information.

    I raise these issues now because of the persistent failure to provide necessary and correct information to the public. A case in point was the recent abduction and subsequent release of Kuriga schoolchildren of Kaduna state. For two weeks until the children were released last Saturday, March 23, 2024, the figure reported worldwide was 287 children. Some reports even indicated “nearly 300” children. Such high figures were even still reported by various newspapers hours after the children were released.

    However, both the state Governor, Uba Sani, and the Army confirmed later that only 137 schoolchildren were abducted and that all of them were rescued from neighbouring Zamfara state. Where did the additional figure of 150 plus children come from? Why didn’t the school authorities or state government correct the erroneous figures when the abduction took place? Why didn’t a reporter visit the school or at least the Local Government headquarters to find out how many children were enrolled in the school, how many attended the school that day, and how many were actually abducted?

    In this digital age, government and governance are driven by data. Not only does lack of data hinder effective planning and project implementation; data deficit also promotes trust deficit in government.

  • Haiti in trouble again

    Haiti in trouble again

    History, they say, repeats itself. This is particularly true of the Caribbean Island we have come to know as Haiti. For the umpteen time, the Island is again embroiled in multiple crises—the crisis of leadership; the crisis of hunger; the crisis of infrastructural decay; and the crisis of insecurity. These crises are worsened by gangster-led attacks on citizens and state actors alike, particularly security agents and state structures. The present spate of gang violence began on February 29, 2024.

    However, when it comes to Haiti, it is often difficult to know precisely when one crisis ends and another begins. True, Haitian history is typified by one type of crisis or another, the present spate of crises could be said to have begun in 2010, following a 7.0 magnitude earthquake, which destroyed much of the capital, Port-au-Prince, killed up to 300,000 people, and dispossessed over one million people.

    In the aftermath of the disaster, various gangs developed or consolidated in association with various members of the economic and political elite. Gang competition for territorial space has been going side by side with elite struggle for power. The competition and power struggle escalated with the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021, which left a power vacuum occupied by Prime Minister Ariel Henry.

    In the last few weeks, a federation of gangs, including the gang of Jimmy Cherizier (a.k.a Barbeque), a notorious Haitian gangster, has seized power, by seizing the airport, burning down the house of the police chief, and trading fire with police, which is outnumbered by weaponised gangsters. In the face of these crises, nobody seems to care anymore about how Haiti came to be and why it remains a troubled nation.

    Political conflicts

    What eventually became Haiti was originally born out of conflict between the Spanish and the French over the western portion of the Spanish island colony of Hispaniola. In resolving the dispute, the western part of the island, where the French had settled by 1625, was ceded to France in 1697.

    For nearly two centuries (1625-1804), the French colonists extracted the last drop of labour from West African slaves brought in to work on the sugar cane and coffee plantations. By the time of the French Revolution in 1789, the colony had emerged as France’s richest colonial possession and one of the richest colonies in the world.

    However, the economic boom would soon perish. It all started with the struggle for independence. Piggybacking on the French Revolution, the slaves mounted their own revolution against the French. After 12 years of conflict, Napoleon Bonaparte’s army was defeated, and the French territory was renamed Haiti on independence on January 1, 1804. By this feat, Haiti became the only nation in history that was established by a successful slave revolt; the first country to abolish slavery; and the first independent nation of the Caribbean and Latin America.

    These feats notwithstanding, Haiti would know no peace. First, fearful of the spread of independence revolt to American slaves, the American government pursued international isolation of the newly independent nation.

    Heavy debts

    Second, the French returned with warships in 1825 to demand compensation for the loss of their colony and the plantations. The agreed sum of the compensation seriously undercut Haiti’s economic activities for 122 years! By the time the compensation was fully paid in 1947, Haiti was already sinking under political turmoil.

    For a century after independence, Haiti struggled but made no progress. Continued political instability in the early 1900s led to American fears of foreign intervention. As a result, the United States occupied the country for 19 years between 1915 and 1934.

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    Although the Americans tried to stabilize the economy during their occupation, their exit was followed by even more political instability and more debt. True, power did not change hands as frequently or violently as before when the Duvalier family (Papa and Baby Doc) took over for 20 years (1956-1986). However, instead of stabilizing the country, the Duvalier dynasty was marked by state-sponsored violence, corruption, and economic stagnation. Worse still, the dynasty incurred additional debts. Although the debts were eventually forgiven, political instability and corruption would prevent national development.

    Political instability

    Haiti has never been able to sustain democracy. Neither America’s Operation Uphold Democracy nor the United Nation’s Stabilization Mission has been able to salvage democracy in the country. Its leaders were either ousted in a military coup, forced to resign and flee the country, or assassinated. At least five Haitian leaders have been assassinated since independence, the most recent being Jovenel Moïse, who was killed in his bedroom on July 7, 2021.

    Natural disasters

    What is worse, nature has not been kind to Haitians. In 1994, Hurricane Gordon killed between 1,122 and 2,200 people. In 2004, over 3,000 people were killed in flooding and mudslides by Tropical Storm Jeanne. Again, in 2008, a series of Tropical storms killed over 300 people and left as many as 800,000 in dire need of humanitarian aid. Two years later, in 2010, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck, killing as many as 300,000 and displacing over one million people. Then in 2021, a 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck another part of the country, killing thousands more and destroying property.

    Images of the devastation from these disasters showed helpless people and grossly inadequate or weak structures, obviously a result of poverty and government neglect. Many were picking debris with bare hands, looking for loved ones still buried beneath the rubble or scavenging for food or something of value.

    Gang violence today

    Genuine efforts to deliver food and medical aid to thousands of victims of natural disasters were often disrupted by criminal gangs and mob violence. Haitians fought for 12 years for self determination and attained independence 220 years ago. Today, they are the poorest people in the Western Hemisphere, struggling for survival. On several occasions, the international community, led by the United States, has come to Haiti’s aid.

    Unfortunately, gang violence has delayed the latest attempt at a temporary resolution. A nine-person (recently reduced to eight-person) transitional council set up by the international community has been prevented from naming a transitional Prime Minister, following Henry’s planned resignation. It is now hoped that the council would meet next week.

    Some Nigerians may begin to see some of Haiti’s problems here at home, such as poverty, hunger, and infrastructural decay. They may think that there is no difference in the violence by gangs and violence by Boko Haram and bandits. After all, they are all non-state actors. Nevertheless, only those who have been to Haiti or otherwise know the country well would realise that there really are no comparisons. The differences between Nigeria and Haiti are far more than the similarities in substance and scale. But that is a subject for another day.

    Given Haiti’s enduring historical and cultural ties to Africa as well as its use as a reference point for Blacks, the time to acknowledge Haiti’s problems as Africa’s problems is now. This is particularly true of the West African subregion, from where most slaves in Haiti were taken over 400 years ago.

  • Trust deficit in Nigeria

    Trust deficit in Nigeria

    Societies function smoothly on the basis of trust. You drive on the roadway, trusting that other drivers will obey traffic rules and regulations. You eat at a restaurant, trusting that the food will be safe. You go to the polls, trusting that your vote will count. You pay your tax, trusting that the government will do the right thing with the money. You deposit your money in the bank, trusting that you will have perpetual access to your funds, and without unnecessary charges for doing so.

    However, trust deficit occurs when social, economic, and political activities are shrouded in doubts and misgivings. Trust deficit is optimal when a large segment of the population lacks faith or trust in social, economic, and political institutions. Trust deficit is a global phenomenon these days, leading to the rise of populist candidates, who ride on voters’ distrust of political institutions. We saw this in the election of populist, autocratic leaders in otherwise democratic countries, such as Viktor Orbán (Hungary); Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil); and Donald Trump (United States).

    In Nigeria today, trust deficit goes beyond social, economic, and political institutions. It extends to traditional and religious institutions as well. Trust deficit is particularly high in public perception of government and its institutions in every sector.

    True, trust deficit is quite high today, but it has been festering since colonial days. Trust deficit killed the development of Hausa, Igbo, and Yoruba as national languages. Yes, they were later written into the National Policy on Education and the constitution but the implementation was never enforced. It also delayed the attainment of independence as one part of the country said it was not ready yet. Trust deficit within and across regions led to the collapse of the second republic and subsequent military take-over. Mistrust also led to various coups and counter-coups thereafter. With the return of democracy in 1999, the opportunity to rebuild trust was again truncated by personal, ethnic, and religious rivalries.

    In no time, rigged elections, poor governance, corruption, oppressive banking policies, and the erosion of moral values further destroyed the basis of trust in social, economic, and political institutions. More recently, social media came to provide a fertile forum for promoting distrust in government through misinformation, negative propaganda, and false representations. The result is the juxtaposition of truth and untruth and their interpolation with ethnic and religious divisions.

    Perhaps at no time has trust deficit in government been this notable, starting with the 2023 presidential election won by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The failure of the Independent National Electoral Commission to upload results to its viewing portal created doubts about the results of the election, leading to the neglect of other areas which attested the authenticity of the results.  Political opponents, notably in the Peoples Democratic Party and the Labour Party, have carried over the animosities of electoral defeat and tripple legal losses, by opposing every move the President has taken so far, even when they promoted similar policies as candidates.

    To be sure, things are really hard on the masses as a result of the removal of fuel subsidy and the elimination of multiple foreign exchange rates. Detractors have capitalised on the negative effects of both policies to drive a trust wedge between the public and the government. Yet, these policies are necessary to end decades of putting money in a few hands at the expense of the same masses, who now mistrust government.

    Leading economists have pointed out repeatedly that these negative effects are temporary and that things will be better over time. We are already seeing some positive results. The Naira has appreciated in value, by gaining as much as N600 in dollar exchange. Direct foreign investment is picking up, and the economic outlook is shaping up better than before.

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    The truth is that public trust in government institutions can neither be taught nor legislated. The best cure is to strengthen social, economic, and political institutions in order to optimise their performance. The starting point is to strengthen the civil service, which is responsible for implementing government policies. A situation whereby the Head of Service of the Federation, Mrs Folashade Yemi-Esan, and other senior civil servants were absent from an event honouring eminent retired Permanent Secretaries does not indicate that the civil service is on the mend, the more so when the Head of Service was expected to declare the conference open on behalf of the President (see Martins Oloja, Reflections on Nigerian Public Service: An outsider’s perspective (1)).

    At the same time, ministers and subnational leaders, especially Governors, have a duty to ensure implementation of mandates and directives from the Federal Government. The President did not need to remind state Governors, as he did recently, about the effective distribution of wage awards and palliatives, which have been made available to them.

    In the meantime, however, the government needs to develop better ways of reaching different segments of society about the advantages of government policies and the state of implementation. Palliatives should not be limited to Naira and rice alone. There should be lexical palliatives as well—soothing words from the President, Governors, Ministers, legislators and other leaders to assuage the pain and raise public hope. In particular, there should be periodic updates about improvements in the economy and public assurances that those improvements will trickle down over time. It is important to realise that trust deficit also thrives on information deficit.

  • Ajaero on errand

    Ajaero on errand

    Some persons deserve pity for their actions. Others deserve education in order to modify their actions. Yet others deserve outright condemnation. Joe Ajaero, National President of the Nigeria Labour Congress, deserves all three for his incessant calls for strikes against a young government doing everything possible to correct decades of social, economic, and structural imbalances in the country.

    Pity

    Ajaero deserves pity for not knowing how to run a slave errand like a freeborn. As the leader of a large umbrella organisation, such as the NLC, he should not have agreed, in the first place, to run any errand for any political organization. But he did, and he chose to run the errand like a hungry lad, who, having come upon some food, used both hands to squeeze big portions into his mouth.

    True, historically, the NLC owns the Labour Party, which was established in 2002. However, under Ajaero, the relationship was reversed. The NLC was subsumed under the Labour party such that Ajaero’s bosses are the leaders of the party with whom he publicly associates, and who often quickly come to his aid, whenever he is in trouble or is simply criticised. Of course, it is well known that he shares ethnic and religious affiliations with the party’s presidential candidate during the 2023 presidential election. But his relationship with that party’s vice-presidential candidate is not all that clear. We do know, however, that he recently earned a law degree from Baze University, owned by the would-be VP.

    It would appear that Ajaero’s political agenda continues to becloud his judgement. That’s why his protest in his native Imo state attracted physical confrontation the other day.  It was election season, and a Labour party candidate was flexing muscles against the incumbent Governor, Hope Uzodimma, who was seeking reelection.

    Nobody believed Ajaero when he argued that the protest was against Uzodimma’s failure to fulfill his promise to the NLC. The timing was wrong. Listen to Uzodimma: “What has happened in this ugly coincidence is that the National President of the Nigeria Labour Congress is from Imo state and has not been able to demarcate the difference between being a national leader of an organisation and then an interested party in local politics”. The non-partisan South East Transparency Initiative confirmed the Governor’s observation, by alleging that Ajaero had a mission to derail the November 11, 2023, governorship election for political reasons.

    Senator Adams Oshiomhole, himself a former Governor and former National President of the NLC, corroborated this view: “Unfortunately, this strike is not about those (economic) issues. And I think we have to be careful not to mix our political opinion with our responsibilities.” Recalling his own experience as NLC President, Oshiomhole added: “I was not anybody’s boy. I wanted to make my decisions. I took responsibility for those decisions. You couldn’t find me in the house of a politician.”

    Let me make it clear: In civilised democracies, there is nothing wrong with a union endorsing a presidential candidate. Just last week, several workers’ unions in the United States endorsed Democrat, Joe Biden, for the forthcoming 2024 presidential election. The unions include the United Auto Workers Union, the Actors’ Equity Association, the American Federation of Teachers, and the American Federation of Government Employees.

    What is different from the Ajaero-led NLC is that, beyond endorsements, the American unions do not identify with any political party. Moreover, they do not participate in political meetings, and are not paid for their endorsements. Most importantly, they do not harass the government. Rather, they direct their protests at specific employers. For example, on different days last year, President Biden and former President Donald Trump joined the Auto Workers strike against the leading auto makers, demanding better pay.

    Education

    Ajaero should not be in want of knowledge about the economic situation in the country and why we are in this mess. He is well educated, having earned a Bachelors degree from UNN, a Masters degree in Business Administration from UNILAG, and several diploma and certificate courses from Cambridge and Harvard Business Schools as well as from the International Labour Training Institute in Turin, Italy. He is also a trained journalist.

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    Against these educational backgrounds, Ajaero cannot claim not to know about the plundering of the Nigerian economy by previous administrations. He cannot claim not to know that between the immediate past CBN Governor and the immediate past President, the nation’s debt portfolio reached an all-time high. He cannot claim not to know that the present administration inherited not only a high debt profile but also an empty treasury. He cannot claim not to know that more oil is reportedly being stolen in the creeks, at pipelines, and in the high seas than is reported to the government. He cannot claim not to know that the former President deferred the removal of fuel subsidy for Tinubu to confront on assumption of office, by not including fuel subsidy in the budget as from June 2023.

    If Ajaero knows all this, where does he expect the government to find the funds to meet all his demands? And why not give the young government some more time for its policies to mature and for the fulfillment of its promises?

    Condemnation

    Ajaero’s problem, is his inability to know the appropriate time for action. It is bad enough for him, as NLC President, to wear the cap of the Labour Party. It is worse not to know where and when to wear it.

    After all, he has an alibi for protests. It is true that the economic situation is dire: Inflation is high. Food prices are high. The prices of petroleum prices are high. Youth unemployment is high. Yet, salaries and wages have stagnated. Only the rich can do philanthropy these days.

    Ajaero does not need a strike to make these points. They are all self-evident. They are existential. Nor does he need the militancy once associated with unionist culture. He does not need to shout down from rooftops. What he needs is continued engagement  with government and with other employers of labour. In negotiating with the government, he should realise that, in the present economic dispensation, it is as difficult for government as it is for the people.  

  • Petrol prices across Africa

    Petrol prices across Africa

    Candidates are known for making rosy campaign promises to win elections, but which they do not intend to fulfill or cannot even fulfull. That’s why expectations were very high when, as a presidential candidate, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu made several high-stake campaign promises, involving tough policy decisions. Two such policies stood out in his manifesto. One was the removal of fuel subsidy. The other was the harmonisation of the exchange rates.

    He did not disappoint as he steamrolled both policies as soon as he assumed office nine months ago. He was praised by local and international observers for the boldness and promptness with which he acted. True, he made it clear on several occasions that the gestation period of the policy would be painful, but neither the government nor the citizens were prepared for how painful it would turn out to be. For the government, praise quickly turned to blame, while attempts to ameliorate the pain were complicated by sabotage. Besides, chronic critics and election losers capitalised on the masses’ knowledge gap to blame the President at every turn. Unfortunately, the government has not done enough to fill the knowledge gap (see, for example, my piece, How we got here, The Nation, February 14, 2024).

    For the citizens, both policies have led to widespread economic destabilasation and deepened the existing poverty level. For example, attempts to harmonise the official and parallel exchange rates have led to the devaluation of the Naira and corresponding increases in commodity prices, while the removal of fuel subsidy instantly led to a hike in petrol prices. In no time, transport costs increased across the country. The resultant inflation has made matters worse in the face of stagnant wages.

    It cannot be denied, however, that the government has continued to work round the clock to improve the economic situation. Palliatives, wage increases, infrastructure development, agricultural expansion, and release of grains from the reserve have all been rolled out or put on the table. Unfortunately, instead of engaging their state officials, who are largely responsible for implementation, some continue to protest the Federal Government. Of course, some economic problems remain unresolved, leading the Federal Government recently to set up a tripartite Economic Advisory Committee, involving the Federal Government, states, and the private sector.

    Lest we continue to misconstrue the Nigerian situation, it is important to put it in a wider perspective, by taking a look at the price of one litre of petrol across Africa. The goal is to show that, even at N650 per litre, petrol price in Nigeria remains one of the lowest on the continent, and even across the globe.

    Let me repeat: even with the price hike following the removal of petrol subsidy, the cost of one litre of petrol in Nigeria is still below the average cost across Africa and the world at large. The truth is that, apart from a few countries in Africa, mostly oil producing, such as Libya, Egypt, Algeria, and Angola, the average price of petrol in Africa is over one dollar, that is, over N1,650. For ease of comparison, I use the dollar price for the rest of this essay.

    Let’s begin with West Africa, where Nigeria, Cameroon, Ghana, and Chad produce oil in varying degrees, with Nigeria being the highest producer. While the dollar price of one litre of petrol in Nigeria is about $0.69 (that is, 69 cents), the price in Cameroon is 1.37 (that is, over N2,000). The price is less in Ghana at 1.05 (that is still over N1,650.00). However, the price in Chad is 0.84. This is closer to, but still higher than, Nigeria’s price. Other West African countries in which the litre price is less than one dollar, but still higher than Nigeria’s, are Liberia (0.80); Niger (0.97); and Gabon (0.98).

    In all other West African countries, the litre price of petrol is higher than one dollar. Here is a sample: Benin (1.12); Togo (1.15); Guinea (1.39); Burkina Faso (1.42); Sierra Leone (1.50); and Senegal (1.65). Take a look at Senegal again: In that country, the price of one litre of petrol is approaching N3,000! And that is a country where the President was attempting to sit tight the other day.

    The situation in East Africa is worse than in West Africa as there is no single country in which the litre price of petrol is less than one dollar, partly because there is no oil producing country in the region. Here’s a sample: Tanzania (1.20); Uganda (1.36); Ethiopia (1.37); Rwanda (1.4); and Kenya (1.43).

    It is a different story, however, in North Africa, where the only country that pays over one dollar for a litre of petrol is Morocco (1.53). It is close to a dollar in Tunisia (0.81), but much less in the oil producing countries of Libya (0.03) Algeria (0.3) and Egypt (0.4). Incidentally, these are oil producing countries in which crude oil is also locally refined.

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    However, local refinery did not save the day in oil producing South Africa, where the litre price of petrol is over one dollar at 1.21. This may well be due to corruption, which once reached a level described as “state capture”. But the story is different in Angola, another oil producing country in Southern Africa, where the litre price of petrol is only 0.36. In all other countries in the region, it is well over a dollar. For example, it is so in Malawi (1.50); Zambia (1.50); Zimbabwe (1.64); and Swaziland, which pays the highest price in Africa, at two dollars (that is, over N3,000) per litre.

    On a global perspective, fuel price is high around the world, the average price being about $1.30 per litre. Variations in fuel prices are generally due to variations in taxation; amount of subsidy paid, if any; level of corruption; whether or not crude oil is indigenous; and whether or not oil is locally refined or imported.

    Going by the above data, it is good news for Nigeria that she is still among the countries with the lowest litre price of petrol in the world, despite the removal of fuel subsidy. True, it has taken a toll on the citizens, but it was good riddance, because it only benefitted a few, while it lasted.

    Those who have been asking to see the savings from the subsidy should go ask their state Governors, who have been receiving more money as federal allocations since the removal of fuel subsidy. Now, with Naira gaining strength by the day, the cloud in the economic horizon is gradually clearing. Hope surely will be renewed.

  • Beware of glaucoma

    Beware of glaucoma

    I got a surprise at the end of my last routine annual visit to my ophthalmologist in Philadelphia late last year. He referred me to a glaucoma specialist. Since he has been my ophthalmologist for about 30 years, why would he refer me to a glaucoma specialist at this time?

    As I walked to the front desk to book the appointment, the initial surprise turned to a scare, the more so because I already had cataract surgery on both eyes. Besides, I knew that glaucoma could lead to total blindness. It is a disease resulting from the buildup of fluid in the front part of the eye. The extra fluid increases the pressure in the eye, resulting in damage to the optic nerve.

    The optic nerve is made up of numerous tiny nerve fibres like an electric cable made up of many small wires. Increased pressure in the eye kills the nerve fibres gradually, resulting initially in blind spots. But the blind spots may not be noticed until most of the nerve fibres have died, resulting in total blindness. It could happen to one eye at a time or to both at the same time.

    Armed with this knowledge beforehand, my questions began to mount. Am I going blind? If so, how would I be able to continue with my habitual practice of reading and writing? I began to think about appropriate apps to use as I wondered why I was being referred to another eye doctor, when I did not complain of any eye problem?

    It did not take long for me to discover that glaucoma is a silent eye killer, because there are often no warning signs or obvious symptoms in the early stages. Even blind spots are often unnoticed or ignored when they develop in peripheral (side) vision as the disease progresses. This is particularly the case with open-angle glaucoma, which is the more common type in which fluid does not drain as well as it should in front of the eye.

    The other type is angle-closure glaucoma in which the iris is so close to the drainage angle as to block it gradually, preventing the normal flow of fluid in front of the eye. When the drainage angle is completely blocked by the iris, eye pressure rises very quickly. Damage to the optic nerve soon follows. It quickly could lead to blindness, if intervention was delayed.

    Fortunately, my anxiety was allayed two weeks later, when I saw the glaucoma specialist. After reviewing my clinical records through the years, he concluded that I did not have glaucoma after all, but that I should see him annually each time I saw my regular ophthalmologist.

    In the ensuing conversation, it turned out that my regular ophthalmologist had a reason for referring me to a glaucoma specialist, while the specialist had a reason for suggesting annual visits. The former thought there was a slight increase in my eye pressure reading when I saw him.

    On his part, the glaucoma specialist concluded that my eye pressure reading was normal that morning and that occasional elevated eye pressure was consistent with my records over the years. This may have been due to the sporadic use of medication that contained steroid. Nevertheless, he advised an annual visit to his office, because according to him, West Africa has the highest incidence of glaucoma in the world! The information rang an alarm bell in my head. Since Nigeria accounts for half the entire population of West Africa, it means that many Nigerians are possibly walking around with glaucoma.

    Research suggests that glaucoma in West Africa is predominantly open angle glaucoma. Unlike other eye problems, such as cataract, vitamin A deficiency, and onchocerciasis, for which there are established cost effective remedies, there are as yet no satisfactory treatments for glaucoma. As a result, training and ophthalmological practice focus on eye diseases for which there are satisfactory treatments to the neglect of glaucoma.

    That’s why screening for early detection of glaucoma is negligible or nonexistent. What is even worse, there are fewer ophthalmologists than other medical specialists. It is estimated that there is only one ophthalmologist per one million people in West Africa, and they are concentrated in the urban areas! This means that patients in smaller towns and rural areas must travel long distances to receive treatment.

    In the absence of a cure, glaucoma could only be managed, usually just for some time. There are two basic approaches to management. One is by eye drop medication, which should be used everyday to lower eye pressure. However, for a number of reasons, chronic medication often fails to lower eye pressure sufficiently long enough to prevent total blindness. Besides, the medicines are generally expensive relative to most patients’ income, and they are often not readily available. As a result, many patients use the medicine sporadically or discontinue medication altogether.

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    The other treatment for managing glaucoma is operating room surgery. The standard method of surgical treatment employed is trabeculectomy, which is used to create a new drainage channel for fluid to leave the eye to prevent high pressure on the optic nerve.  Unfortunately, however, in spite of its efficacy for some patients, this surgery is not performed in large numbers in West Africa. For one thing, the procedure is generally poorly accepted by patients. Even for those who accept it, their problem is often presented too late for the procedure to produce effective results. What is worse, trabeculectomy is a cumbersome operation and requires more postoperative care than cataract surgery. It is, therefore, generally avoided by most ophthalmologists.

    There are also a few non-invasive laser surgeries, such as argon laser trabeculoplasty for open-angle glaucoma and iridotomy for angle-closure glaucoma. Other alternatives, such as non-penetrating drainage surgery are also available or being pursued. None, however, appears to rank with operating room trabeculectomy, despite its shortcomings.

    There are many risk factors for glaucoma, including age (40 and older); heredity (family members with glaucoma); any eye problem (high eye pressure, far- or nearsightedness, eye injury); medication (such as long-term steroid use); and certain health problems, such as diabetes, high blood pressure, and migraines). If you have one or more of these risk factors, you should see an ophthalmologist immediately. Don’t wait for symptoms. There may be none until the disease has advanced. Even if you think you are not at risk, you still should see an ophthalmologist, if only to establish the baseline condition of your eyes.

    When you see your ophthalmologist, request a complete or comprehensive eye exam. Remember that glaucoma cannot be reversed.

  • How we got here

    How we got here

    I have been speaking with various artisans about the economic situation in the country. I interacted with mechanics, welders, electricians, carpenters, bricklayers, tilers, okada riders, and professional drivers. Sometimes I just listened to them, freely discussing the economic situation in the country. At other times, I asked them directly for their opinion.

    There was uniformity in their assessment of the economic situation. Things are bad, very bad, they all acknowledged. Everything is expensive, they said. Food costs are high. Housing costs are high, including building materials, from cement to electrical and plumbing materials. Energy (electricity, fuel, gas) costs are high. Transport costs are high. One Okada rider was particularly bitter about the cost of motorcycles, which has since tripled, according to him. Drivers mouthed similar complaints.

    All the artisans complained about reduced patronage, leading to reduced income. This makes them even more vulnerable, given high inflation and rising costs. If artisans feel this way, one can only imagine how the unemployed would feel.

    I also wanted to know if they knew what caused the present economic situation. This is where divisions began to emerge among them. First, while they all cited President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s policies as responsible, few could name the specific policies. While the majority cited the removal of fuel subsidy, much fewer cited the unification of the exchange rate and the attendant devaluation of the Naira. What is worse, for many of them, the problems started with Tinubu.

    The second noticeable division in the findings was generational difference. Older artisans went beyond Tinubu to cite endemic corruption, which predated the Tinubu administration. An older bricklayer went as far back as the Goodluck Jonathan administration to cite the case of Dasuki, then National Security Adviser, who was doling out the money recovered from General Sanni Abacha, the notorious army dictator, as Jonathan began to prepare for re-election in 2015. Another one, a much older driver, even went further back to talk about the billions of Naira that former President Olusegun Obasanjo said he allocated to the rehabilitation of Sagamu-Benin road, without much to show for it till today.

    On every occasion, I took advantage of the level of ignorance or unawareness to explain what was going on. The problems have a very long history, I told them. Military dictatorships, starting in 1966, institutionalised corruption, by suspending the constitution, dispensing with the legislature and the judiciary, and suppressing the press. They told and showed us only what they wanted us to know and see.

    With the advent of democracy in 1999, there were many more people to share the loot. In no time, it became a case of “My loot is bigger than yours” with many more people sharing the loot. You only need to go to Abuja to see the humongous houses, hotels, and businesses, built by politicians, legislators, and civil servants.

    Matters began to get worse under President Goodluck Jonathan, beginning in 2013 as preparations got underway for the 2015 general elections. Incidentally, that was the year the All Progressives Congress was formed, mounting a very strong opposition to the Jonathan administration. That was the background to what came to be known in the press as Dasukigate, which the bricklayer cited above.

    Apparently, with recent revelations, things got worse under the Buhari administration. Domestic and foreign debts went through the roof. The nation’s foreign reserve was depleted. The Governor of the Central Bank, Godwin Emefiele, appeared to have colluded with the Buhari administration to perpetrate untold atrocities. Naira was printed illegally in order to increase loan to the government.

    By the time Buhari was handing over to Tinubu, the CBN had loaned the government over N20 trillion, with nothing to back up the loan and with no clear terms of repayment. Foreign loan was almost four times that amount. So much was borrowed and so much was looted that Charles Soludo, former Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria and present Governor of Anambra state, declared recently that Tinubu inherited a “dead economy”. It will be recalled that Nuhu Ribadu, the National Security Adviser, had also said as much.

    On his own, Emefiele set up multiple exchange rates within the banking system and gave different customers different rates. The so-called anchor borrowers programme intended to assist farmers was used to assist those he wanted to assist. He was also giving loans to friendly individuals as if the CBN was a commercial bank. He allegedly opened numerous accounts at home and abroad and funneled money into them. Part of Emefiele’s scam was the botched currency swap ahead of the 2023 general elections, which caused untold hardships for millions of Nigerians.

    Between Buhari and Emefiele, a subsidy regime was maintained to keep the country going, while also getting deeper and deeper into debt. Electricity was subsidised. Even the Naira was prevented from devaluation by keeping the official forex market low and supplying the dollar to the market, when necessary. Then there was fuel subsidy, which had become a scam to put money into a few hands, some of which did not even supply fuel at all.

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    For years, many previous governments had planned to end fuel subsidy but failed to do so for political reasons. The plan was completed by the Buhari administration. However, for political reasons, he stopped short of ending the subsidy. Instead, he left the job for Tinubu by making sure that there was no subsidy in the budget as from June 2023, when Tinubu took office. In other words, Tinubu had no choice but to end the subsidy. It was equally necessary to provide a level playing field for foreign exchange transactions by unifying the exchange rate.

    What Tinubu did was to end the tradition of money for a few so that it will be money for all in the future. However, such a transformation can never be instant. The intervening period will be difficult. There will be pain. There will be suffering. There even will be hunger. But not for too long. However, how soon remains uncertain. That’s why he released billions of Naira as palliative, which state governments are meant to disburse. Incidentally, none of the artisans I spoke with got anything. 

    Above is a summary of the explanations I offered to various artisans. As I collated my findings, the IMF released its recent assessment of the nation’s economic situation. It concluded that Nigeria is in the throes of stalled per capita growth, high poverty levels, and significant insecurity. The IMF also noted Tinubu’s constraints: “Low reserves and very limited fiscal space constrain the authorities’ option space”.

    Neither the problems nor the constraints began with the Tinubu administration. However, the bulk now stops at his desk.