The Nation Newspaper

Category: Wednesday

This democracy

The opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth – Niels Bohr

In the space of a week, the expression of the people’s will to be governed by people they elect showed three different faces. Vastly different nations, political contexts and democratic systems in Nigeria, The Gambia and United States of America presented major variants of a system of governance that sends back many of its students to drawing boards. In Nigeria, a routine constitutional requirement that presidents proceeding on leave notify the legislature and submit the leadership of the nation to deputies was met by President Muhammadu Buhari as he left the country for 10-day leave and medical attention. A few years ago, the failure of the late President Umaru Yar’Adua to comply with this requirement plunged the country into a constitutional crisis of such proportions; it required a rare national consensus and ingenious legal brinkmanship to push the nation beyond. In The Gambia, the popular will required a hefty push from barrels of the gun to survive a major setback. In the USA, a president-elect who had defied all conventional wisdom to win was sworn in to lead a nation that is deeply divided over the elections that produced him.

The elections of 2015 in Nigeria broke with tradition in many respects. The results were not widely and violently disputed. An incumbent president and a dominant party were defeated, and they yielded power to those elected in a seamless transition. It is difficult to remember that in 2010, Vice President Goodluck Jonathan only assumed the office of President after a frightful attempt to create obstacles to the activation of constitutional requirements, a transition that represented a triumph of elite consensus around constitutionalism and evidence of a maturing democracy. One year later, the electoral mandate he won was stained with the blood of hundreds of victims of election violence which followed the elections. Nigerians were reminded of the fragility of their democratic process, and you could not fault those who wondered if it will ever be free of the damaging limitations which elections progressively subjected it to. The next general election then restored confidence that Nigerians could organise credible elections and strengthen the foundations of the democratic process. Those foundations allowed a president to leave the country in the hands of his deputy who himself was out of the country at the time, and hardly anyone batted an eyelid.

Even as he left the nation in the hands of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Buhari was aware that the Nigerian military he had despatched to shore up the popular will of the people of The Gambia was on its way. Nigeria was executing the mandate of nations in the ECOWAS sub region to enforce, if necessary, the will of the citizens of a tiny nation whose landmark decision to reject a leader who was in power for 20 years was in danger of being repudiated. The Gambia was going to test the commitment of many African leaders to the democratic process, but Jammeh may not have been alone in underrating the capacity of Africans to influence the course of history in other nations. Many Africans had thought the freedom to travel long distances to fight on foreign soils and impose different orders belonged only to the most powerful nations, such as US, EU countries and Russia. There were many who hoped that the intense lobby of Jammeh will make him budge, because they did not believe that it was prudent and expedient for countries, such as Nigeria to wage wars in The Gambia over election disputes.

As it turned out, the threat of the use of force was precisely what was needed to save the democratic process in The Gambia. Tragically, Jammeh shunned the fresh examples of John Mahama and Goodluck Jonathan, but while he shut out the voices of Gambians, he could not ignore the drums of war. A man who could have written his own political future ended up with one imposed on him, even with the elaborate assurances of the ECOWAS, AU and UN that he will be free of persecution. Gambian democracy has been rescued by outsiders who stood with a majority of voters. What does this say of the future of the democratic process in many African countries which, Gambia or not, will experience disputes over election outcomes? Is The Gambia a fluke or a standard? What will be the benchmark for disputes that should force nations to move into action, including the threat or use of force? Can Africans sustain armed threats or use of force against leaders who defy popular will in places, such as East and Central Africa?

It is tempting to believe that the new Gambian president will respond to the historic decision of Gambians to choose him over Jammeh, as well as the resolve of African nations and their allies to enforce that decision, with good governance and a constant reminder of the experience of Jammeh. He will be challenged with the daunting task of liberalising the political environment that bore the character of Jammeh’s prolonged stay in power, and rebuilding an economy that needs fresh confidence and massive investment. The Gambia’s rescued democratic processes will be closely policed by neighbouring Senegal and other regional powers, such as Nigeria. The other major dimension of The Gambia experience is that it places a major burden on shoulders of leaders that went out on a limb to rescue the will of the Gambian people. Big nations, such as Nigeria and Ghana will now have to behave with as little blemish as possible, not just because they raised the bar in The Gambia, but because their own messy disputes around election results will almost certainly not be resolved by direct foreign intervention. They cannot afford to yield the higher ground to nations with a little more muscle than The Gambia, where disputes could create real threats of civil wars if foreign intervention is resisted by parties to disputes.

While Africans were celebrating a victory of sorts, one that required the threat of war to enforce an electoral verdict, a new President was being sworn-in in America. The event was as profound as the swearing in of a black president eight years earlier. In 2008, the American son of an African student became president of the US, suggesting that American people and democracy had matured to a point where race played second fiddle to merit. After eight years, Obama’s dignified presidency was handed to a man who will fit the tag of serial offender of all known and unknown sensitivities Americans and the world have come to associate with responsible leadership. A sulking, powerful layer of US voters dragged the presidency from convention and handed it over to a man who offended races, religions, neighbours, allies, women, the media, the intelligence community and just about everyone or thing that can be tweeted into anger or fear. A supreme irony was lost to the world at a time a candidate who had threatened to reject an electoral verdict from US voters if he lost, was being sworn-in, and another in Africa who actually rejected the verdict of voters in his country was being forced to yield to popular vote. It may be just an amusing, academic question to ask what could have happened if Trump had lost the elections and carried out his threat to reject the result. A legitimate question to ask will be if Trump’s heresy had in any way bolstered Jammeh?

US voters got what they wanted. Only time will tell if that will be what the Americans need to reunite a divided nation, with major segments angry and suspicious that they will be engaged in bruising fights with a president who thinks his mandate is an endorsement of everything he is and of his plans. The world now waits to see the new face of America, an exercise that is tasking, to say the least, because it worries that the future will demand major painful adjustments within the very little room available. People of The Gambia were handed a reprieve, but will now hope that subsequent elections will not require foreign warships and boots to enforce their will. Africans improved their ranking in the league of champions of the democratic system, and will now hope that The Gambia will represent a strong threshold that will determine future conduct on the continent. Nigerians have been further committed to the support of the democratic process, and will now be continuously reminded that you cannot export what you do not have yourself.

January 25, 2017
Our Girls; IDPs; ‘In-sourcing USA’; Trump-ing Nigerian politics?

Our girls are still missing since April 15, 2014. It was heartening to see the Bring Back our Girls (BBOG) and the federal government touring Sambisa Forest to get ‘wartime’ appreciation of each other’s efforts. Make war documentaries.
The Air Force bombing of Rann IDP camp was a preventable, anticipated tragedy and serious setback to Nigeria and intelligence sources. The Americans call it ‘Friendly Fire’.
Did the federal government remove EDUCATION from the Concurrent to the hated Exclusive List- a totally failed federal might preserve of conservative reactionaries? The growth of Nigeria depends on shortening the hated Exclusive List. Is the federal government merely a few ‘wrong agenda’ men and women spearheading this? Is this an APC or sectional agenda? Buhari, Osinbajo, Oyegun please explain the resultant forthcoming illiteracy cloud!
If the ECOWAS/AU/UN Gambian solution had been applied to Babangida, Nigeria would have been better today?
In Davos 2017, electric power for Africa championed by Akinwumi Adesina, the President of African Development Bank (AfDB), is spending $12b over five years and $20-50b from private sector including Dangote Group. Meanwhile Nigeria has 3-5,000Mw for all its stolen billions. Adesina says that ‘TO REMAIN IN POWER, POLITICIANS MUST PROVIDE POWER’. What hope? Power is the next big thing in Africa.
The Minister of Finance Mrs Kemi Adeosun correctly told National Assembly (NASS) that our fat banks, fed fat on government money, often corruptly, must change their diet from Treasury Single Account (TSA) and government deposits to normal banking, giving loans to all and living off the interest. Banks should support development, businesses and families. Every Nigerian is an entrepreneur needing SINGLE DIGIT LOANS. CBN must cut the Monetary Policy Rate to zero for everyone.
Billionaire Trump has achieved the yearnings of billions of suffering world citizens by breaking the political dynamic of power- the financial excesses of politicians and the ‘low services’ and low returns for huge tax bills – massive costs of election and tribunals, loss of life, huge government running costs, corruption and SAPP-Salaries Perks and Pensions – even post humus, all for near zero development – not even a few roads, rail, a bridge or electric power or a well-run hospital, clinic, school. Nigerians are not greedy. Yet they must ‘SUFFER FOR DEVELOPMENT’. Potholes and taxes grow malignantly from empty promises, projects uncompleted and more outrageous the new government beast- Internally Generated Robbery strategies – like 419 scammers –‘Give ‘us’ N1m, to reduce this bill from N5m to N2.5m’ and a credit to highway robbers and carjackers- ‘Give me N10,000 or we will tow you and charge N25,000 in the office- all ruining city parking even on wide-enough roads. ‘NO PARKING=NO CUSTOMERS=NO BUSINESS=NO TAXES’ IS NOT NOBEL LAUREATE ECONOMICS or even nuclear physics. It is common Trump business political sense. EMPTY STREETS=NO BUSINESS. Customers go elsewhere. GOVERNORS – YOUR CITIES ARE DYING ECONOMICALLY AS YOU READ THIS!!
TRUMP IS AN EXPERT OUTSIDER and has suffered and studied politicians to get projects like taking over the National Post Office Building and making it Trump Towers, near the White House. He now ‘owns’ two USA prime real estate areas. Trump has character and thinking negatives, accused of being sexist and racist. However, he believes the political class is not God but a catalyst and conduit to service citizens. When the POLITICAL CLASS ENCOURAGES AND CONSUMES MORE THAN 10% OF THE BUDGET, by corruption or legally-illegal ‘419’ acquisition, the country is doomed to decay and death. NO BUSINESS OR GOVERNMENT CAN SURVIVE 10%+ THEFT, CORRUPTION OR WASTE! Nigeria has far too few living patriotic leaders. Buhari is one as a defender of the naira and financially not corrupt, thus saving 50% of the budget going by records of his Presidential predecessors. To become a great statesman, he must, however, be publicly and impartially exonerated from ethnic or religious bias in public and military offices and in the terror of Fulani herdsmen.
The transition in the USA is a lesson to Nigerian politicians preoccupied with amassing fortunes and mega-pensions while the minimum, often unpaid, wage is N10,000-15,000/month- cheaper than A FULL TANK OF PETROL FOR A POLITICAL JEEP. Trump does not drink. In Nigeria, January kicks off government madness, issuing deliberately inflated tax bills to give ‘opportunity’ for ‘corrupt negotiations’ UNREALISTIC ‘DEMAND NOTICES’ WITH 7-14 DAY ULTIMATUMS AS AN INSULTING RUDE LETTER, while the Ombudsman and National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) sit by silent at this annual human rights abuse and mental torture. Politics must change worldwide.
There will be slivers of good governance we can learn from Trump’s ‘Big-Business Approach to Get Small- Government for the People’. Big Government is killing Nigeria. However Berlusconi in Italy was also a billionaire but he did not change anything except scandals. Will Trump be different?
Trump announced ‘In-sourcing of the USA’, anti-globalisation. His people have no jobs. He has to tackle cheap labour, foreign alternatives from China in particular and the AI, Artificial Intelligence ‘robotisation’ of American factories taking human jobs. Are Americans patriotic, enough to ‘buy expensive USA’, over cheaper foreign goods?
From Trump, Nigeria should learn Obama’s ‘Audacity Of Hope’ and confront Nigeria’s development-killing political dynamics by grooming NEW LEADERSHIP MATERIAL, a newer broom to succeed Buhari-Mr Anti-Currency Corruption. we should be ‘TRUMP-ing Nigerian politics’ and raise a ‘CLEAN MODIFIED ‘TRUMP’ to deliver what MOST NIGERIAN WANT: A CHEAPER, LEANER, SITTING ALLOWANCE ONLY, PART-TIME, ONE HOUSE POLITICS AND NASS POLITICIANS PAID/SPONSORED ENTIRELY BY HOME STATES.
Nigeria must construct 1,000 bridges and 150,000Mw and new roads and rail. Stop the un-economic double concreted medians and concrete bus lane dividers!

January 25, 2017
A day in Maiduguri

Cross the river in a crowd and the crocodile won’t eat you – African proverb

I was part of a delegation of Northern Elders Forum that visited the Borno State capital, Maiduguri, last week. The visit lasted all of one day, but it revealed an entire future that is both inspiring and frightening. The last time a delegation of the Forum visited Maiduguri was about three years ago, and it barely managed to leave the beleaguered city with some dignity because President Jonathan’s State of Emergency order was made on its first day in Maiduguri. There was no such cause for panic this time. The short stay was informed by the challenges of age and conditions of people well past use-before dates, and a loaded programme designed to engage major stakeholders, political and community leaders as well as victims. A day was long enough to see the outlines of a disaster in transition, and enough to judge the progress of communities and a nation through an uncertain future.

Surreal is one way of describing the overall feeling you get when you look deep into the faces and soul of Maiduguri. The city which witnessed the tipping point in the history of the insurgency and then went through six years of agony is bravely attempting to come back to life although the war is far from over, it is stretched beyond imaginable limits with more than one and a half million internally displaced people in homes and camps, the odd suicide bomb goes off now and then, soldiers and other security personnel live on constant alert, neighbours closely scrutinise each other, and the global community attempts to find entry points into one of the biggest humanitarian disasters in recent human history. In this city where families were split into insurgents and victims, or scattered into varied circumstances, there are children who will never know the love of parents. Many did not know electricity until the last two years. Many have spent years out of school or lived under care, or no care at all. Many have seen deaths and other psychologically-traumatising experiences that require intense counselling and other therapies they will never get. Children under 10 in Maiduguri have grown up knowing what bullets and bombs sound like. In 20 years, they will be adults, the people who will determine the way all others live.

Engaging the governor and senior public officials, you get the distinct impression of leaders who believe they have won decisive battles by not surrendering to the insurgency. You see confidence among public officials who could not visit home in towns and villages this time last year, and a few whose towns are still not easily accessible. You see evidence of a leadership made up of Muslims and Christians bonded by the realisation that Boko Haram makes all faiths equal victims. The governor’s confidence belies his recent altercation with NGOs and relief organisations, the challenges of meandering through the forest of federal and state agencies as well as frustrations over the daily struggle to balance current needs of citizens against rebuilding a context for a secure and productive future. The relief over the recent successes of the military campaign in Sambisa forest is palpable, and you get the impression that Borno State people will vote for President Muhammadu Buhari as many times as he will ask for their support. You will not detect a feeling that they feel abandoned, but the leadership and citizens of Borno are quick to appreciate gratitude for even token gestures that assure them that they are not alone as they walk away from a murderous insurgency into a future full of challenges.

The spectacle of dignified splendour around the Shehu of Bornu barely conceals the reality that this ancient civilisation has been traumatised and squeezed into Maiduguri by an insurgency whose origin and development it disowns at every opportunity. The Shehu’s empire substantially hangs around his palace, with subordinates chased out of palaces, while government offices, schools, hospitals, basic social and economic infrastructure, homes, mosques and churches have all largely been destroyed. If you thought the Shehu’s assertion that Borno will rise again was conjured bravado, you are forced into doubt as you see hundreds of young people outside his palace watching a football match, the number of young people who run towards any siren to raise clenched fists in greetings and adulation, or the number of school children (including, significantly, school-age girls) who squeeze through heavy traffic to go to school, or the relaxed faces on streets even when no one is certain that the next person may not be concealing a bomb.

The faces of resistance are represented in elders and elite who have stayed behind to resist this assault either because they have no choice or because they chose to risk staying put in Maiduguri. It is also represented by the mostly young Civilian JTF, that precocious group that forced its way into a war, making the difference by exposing relations, neighbours and suspects, providing an invaluable compass in the fight and paying a very high price for its effort. Borno Elders Forum serves as the voice and vanguard of the community, often irritating or serially annoying authority at all levels by its insistence that there are right ways of dealing with security challenges and the rights and dignity of citizens. These elders paid their dues to the Nigerian state at many levels, and they will not abandon the belief that it is possible to re-engineer a Nigeria with Borno as a pillar.

In the Northeast generally, and in Borno State in particular, everyone speaks in statistics. You will hear that there are over 2m IDPs in the region, only 10 per cent of whom live in camps. The numbers increase literally by the day, as the military dislodge more insurgents and free captive populations. There are anywhere between fifty and one hundred thousand young orphans, a curious phenomenon in an African context until you are reminded that no one has the space or resources to give them a home. Many of the IDPs are children or relations of insurgents who are shunned with such vehemence, they require special protection. More than half of school-age children have not been to school in the last five years. Ninety per cent of the IDPs living with families receive no assistance, nor do their host families. Their future depends largely on when towns and villages can be secured, when basic infrastructures including houses are rebuilt and when the means of production are made available. The statistics relating to poverty levels, malnourishment, juvenile delinquency, crimes and vulnerability of women and children and even the possibility of the prolongation or mutation of the insurgency can safely be marked up in the next few months, even with increased support, coordination and resources. The .2m IDPs who will be released into the population if the Government of Borno State goes ahead with its plans to close down all IDP camps in May this year, will pose additional problems for security and victims’ management.

Maiduguri is the epicentre of devastation, the magnitude of which the nation is yet to fully grasp. At this stage, only a few things are certain: the resolve of the government of Nigeria to degrade the insurgency to a point where it is no longer a credible threat; the determination of the leaders and the communities in the Northeast to claw their ways into a rebuilt future; the determination of international relief and humanitarian organisations and friendly nations and many Nigerian NGOs to sustain the difficult tasks of reaching the vulnerable and the needy; and finally, a hugely uncertain future for millions of people in Nigeria and neighbouring countries. The pace and tempo of the military campaign must be sustained and matched by parallel efforts at rehabilitation, reintegration and reconstruction. In the last few months, the Federal Government has made improvements in the manner it coordinates activities of governments and agencies involved in managing a major humanitarian disaster. Still, the domestication of the Kampala Declaration will vastly improve the legal and policy framework for protecting and assisting IDPs. The people of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states and many parts of the North have lived with a nightmare for many years. Even if the insurgency is comprehensively defeated soon, this will only mark the beginning of another long and tasking challenge to rebuild lives and livelihoods. In Maiduguri, we saw signs among the population that there is hope for a safe and secure future. It is not just their future, because every Nigerian lives in Maiduguri.

January 18, 2017
Our Girls; FG: Corrupt port; Crippling Post-Office perks & pensions

Our Girls are still missing since April 15, 2014. Please pray and work for their release even as negotiations are ongoing. If YOU do not pray for them, no one else will.
Shamefully, Kaduna’s Azikiwe and other roads upgrade is done for out-of-towners using the airport while Abuja airport is closed and not for citizens of Kaduna. Governance is service not politics. We always do the right thing for the wrong reason. Why do citizens not matter to politicians? FILL ALL NIGERIA’S POTHOLES, not just the ones on Kaduna-Abuja Road. MAKE STRAIGHT OUR PATH.
There is a tussle between the Federal Government’s ban on vehicles crossing road borders to enter the country and Senate and citizens opposing that move. I have on Sundays been overtaken by smuggled car convoys speeding to escape Customs at Ogere and other traps. The origin of using land borders is threefold.
The first is the much touted huge delays, inefficiencies, demurrage fees and corruption at the Nigerian seaports with its multi-layered non-communicating and non-cooperating security arms, all feeding desperately from multiple administrative and actual road blocks.
The second reason is simply to avoid or reduce customs tariffs and bribes, which the smugglers claim, and actually are, mysteriously reduced and cheaper in foreign African ports even added to the 200+ km tortuous and often illegal land routes than the 5km from a Tin Can Island Port ship to Apapa roundabout. How can a country operate when a 200km rough, dangerous, sometimes deadly route is more economical than a 5km journey from Apapa Port?
Thirdly it shows the measure of the corruption and citizen’s confidence in Nigeria’s governance, where all security agencies malignantly bastardise an entire normal international shore-ship-shore transaction which now works so worthlessly that Nigerian citizens would rather ship to Ghana and Cameroon than face their own port- Lagos.
Apparently the Senate has overturned the ban but there is no word on further cleaning- up of time wasting, the corruption and the multiple ‘long-room’ perpetual palaver at the ports. In spite of SERVICOM, ask yourself, who smiles when they have to go to the port, a police station, hospital or ministry? Government should understudy ports in small neighbouring countries and ‘Clean-up and streamline the port’, for every Nigerian. Only then will smuggling be for smugglers and not a necessity for everybody.
Still on the expensive matter of Nigeria’s perpetual debts to past and present serving politicians and civil servants of variable moral background. Nobody would object to a reasonable stipend for duly elected leaders but how does a person who seizes power qualify?
Already the same government drowns such political people in national honours while plaques weigh down their walls. In short, thieves, be they military, militancy, agbada or babanriga, banker, business, contractor, captains of industry, directors and shareholders manipulating stocks or topless thugs wielding machetes or cudgels and sagging jeans manipulating ‘FAF’-Free and Fair’- elections, all know that there is CAUSE AND CONSEQUENCE OF THEIR ACTION. They protect themselves from those consequences. Yes, even thieves who since 1960s have deprived you of minimal standards of living. They can ‘see clearly now’ but sing ‘I don’t care’ about our consequently diseased, dying and dead from unfilled medical prescriptions and unfilled potholes. Indeed Nigeria once the pride of Africa, in its own estimation anyway, has come to vie for last place by many observers as ‘the darkest spot’ of Africa with the weakest currency, poorest services, poorest social and indices and we seem so proud of our nothingness –near nakedness. Every one of the potholes COULD BE FILLED IN A DAY, WHERE THERE IS A WILL THERE IS A WAY. Each pothole is a symptom of our political and engineering incompetence and screams ‘CORRUPTION’, as it halts traffic WITH CONSEQUENT BUSINESS DELAYS AND EXTRA FUEL CONSUMPTION AND REDUCED LIFE OF TYRES AND BRAKES. It consumes tyres and lives shedding the blood of the dead at the road side where too many are ‘lying dead in UNMARKED POTHOLES FIT FOR A KING’. Let us judge the effects of these people still sucking Nigeria dry by millions daily even after most of them spent a lot of time sucking Nigeria dry while in office.
Nigeria is in a bad state with among the lowest health and education indices and budgets worldwide and has been in decay since forever because of these people who boldly gather around the Council of State table to yet again pretend to ‘solve’ problems they often created.
No one would expect a Nigerian ex-head of state to walk or drive around without a security detail fully paid for by Nigeria. But things have been taken too far under secrecy making each of them the equivalent of a President or Vice President or Governor for Life, a ‘CRIPPLING FIRST Line BUDGET BURDEN’ of Post-Office Perks & Pensions, without the ‘responsibility burden’ of the office.
The horrifying revelations of the ‘perpetual burden of office holders on the nation’ was glimpsed when it was revealed that massive sums are being paid to even the families of late disgraced, un-great, rulers in Nigeria. We must add that this is going on for generals, and certainly for governors, perhaps commissioners, certainly past chairmen of Local Government Areas. So Nigeria has thousands of ‘perpetual dependents receiving exorbitantly juicy pensions, perks and transport, security. What hope for Nigeria between legally illegal pension laws and overt port corruption driving ‘business’ abroad?

January 18, 2017
How to make 2017 count
Politics, a strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles – Ambrose Bierce

All that needed to be said about the disappointments and achievements of year 2016 have been said. The government of President Muhammadu Buhari acknowledged that it had substantially under-performed, blaming factors which predated it, as well as new, unforeseen developments that adversely affected the economy and national security. It celebrated substantial progress in the fight against Boko Haram, and even a trickling of success in the return of the Chibok girls as major successes. The campaign against corruption had been flagged, but was being challenged by cynicism over its popularity in circles around the President as well as frustrating limitations in the judiciary and the legislature. Governance below the federal level had avoided much national scrutiny, but citizens in states had lived with daily excuses from governors echoing the national lamentations over collapsed revenues. Many citizens were bewildered by state governments that did not pay salaries and pensions, but found the means to undertake eye-catching projects. Governors had taken refuge behind the massive profile and clout of the Buhari federal administration to avoid being accountable. Weak political opposition had created the context for disturbing complacency and massive intra-party disputes. The year 2017 will present an opportunity to leaders and the nation to demonstrate that there is political will and faith behind a nation facing one of its biggest challenges. If that opportunity will not be lost, some of these need to be accorded priority.
- Rediscover the mission of leadership
Widespread disenchantment with poor governance and weak political will combined with the appearance of a credible alternative that could lead to national rebirth to produce the Buhari administration. The majority of Nigerians voted for a leadership that was going to fight and defeat insurgents, stop corruption, give jobs to young people and create an economy that did not count its successes in the number of billionaires it created. Most Nigerians believed Buhari will lead the nation to recover its strengths and punish those who bled its unity and resources. His administration was going to be different, the expression of a popular demand behind the need to do things differently. Its worst enemies feared that it will be a tough administration in the character of the leader, and certainly did not envisage that it will be just another administration waiting for elections to seek another mandate. President Buhari and the APC need to rediscover their mission, even if the real challenges of governance have made the re-invention of that messianic aura largely problematic. In plain terms, Buhari cannot be just another President.
- Create a sense of urgency
If there has been a consistent negative trait associated with the Buhari administration, it must be that it routinely takes too long to do too little, or nothing at all. Incredible lethargy and pronounced tardiness in decision-making have long silenced excuses that the need to be meticulous and avoid past mistakes justify delays. In practical terms, the APC has only about a year left to make a telling difference in the quality of leadership which it offers Nigerians. Outside the military and one or two of its agencies, all the basic institutions of state operate without zeal or speed, marking time under an administration that cannot afford to lose a day seemingly sitting on its hands. The nation’s challenges demand a pervasive sense of emergency in the manner they are handled. Leaders cannot afford convenience and luxury of delays, because citizens will believe that they either have no solutions, or do not care enough to find solutions.
- Change tactics
At this stage in the life of the administration, it should be seriously considering options in its tactics in achieving key goals. Where the administration lacks financial resources to tackle problems, it should tap the tremendous intellectual and other human resources available to it to find solutions to many social problems. It should re-visit the value of involving greater say for high quality private sector input into the management of the economy. The nation’s military cannot fight and win victories against all internal security challenges. Many of these problems require only minimal involvement of military and other security assets to contain, but their resolution requires the deployment of strong political will and imaginative utilisation of political options. Fighting corruption requires creating strong linkages with other arms of government, as legislators and the judiciary will support or resist the fight against corruption largely on the degree to which they feel they are not primarily set up as its targets. A long-term perspective needs to be employed in this fight against a deeply-entrenched scourge, and public support has to be vigorously cultivated to survive the appearance that this is a partisan issue.
- Re-prioritise
Massive revenue shortfalls and limited foreign investment should compel a review of priorities and some difficult choices. There are evident positive consequences of the recession which has forced restrictions on imports of particularly food items. These are in markedly improved outputs by mostly small scale farmers that can be sustained with some encouragement through enlightened policies and incentives to producers. The rising cost of living is felt more by the elite and urban populations, and there may be some advantages in focusing more on the rural poor who, in any case, is the backbone of the APC administration. Social intervention policies may deliver on election promises, but poor design and faulty implementation as well as their potential for deepening partisan divides and political alienation and high costs of administration could seriously detract from their impact. Between now and the middle of next year, the political benefits of N-Power and cash handouts may be difficult to quantify and translate into political capital. The billions spent on them on the other hand could be re-assigned towards areas with greater multiplier effects and social support. Funding of government activities is still enslaved to a process that demands that every agency must be funded, even if all it does is to pay salaries. Within this year, the government can undertake a comprehensive review of its size, commitments and resources, not in the manner of the so-called Oronsaye report that suggests that size can be reduced without respect for laws or social consequences, but in a manner that outlines a short and long-term restructuring that will produce an affordable government at the centre, and state governments that do not exist only to pay salaries. Rehabilitation and expansion of critical infrastructure and adoption of policies that allow private sector access to managing roads, airports and seaports should be given priorities.
- Address quality of management
The nation will forgive President Buhari for making wrong choices in appointment of ministers and key aides, but it will not tolerate a continuation of a team that has created near-universal consensus as performing well below one that should actualise his vision. It cannot be the easiest of jobs working under the imposing shadow of President Buhari, with little resources and institutions and processes of governance and bureaucracies that appear never to have known what happened in 2015, but a few have stood out, while many have only created an image of poor decision-making and a reluctance to revisit mistakes around the President. Nothing much will change in terms of rediscovery of the administration’s mission, creating a stronger momentum for greater impact, taking initiatives, setting new goals and achieving them or inspiring a lethargic bureaucracy to respond to the demands of improved service delivery under the current management team of the President. The quality of people involved in running state administrations is quite possibly one of the worst in the nation’s history. There are very few change agents and champions in administrations that came to power promising change.
- Be political
This time next year, the APC will have a stronger opposition, much of it made up of people who laboured with President Buhari to create the APC. His party will require very strong muscles to limit the damage that will become evident as powerful and ambitious party men do what was done to the PDP in 2013 and 2014. President Buhari will be put under tremendous pressure to make his plans for 2019 known, and this will cause further turbulence within his party, whatever he decides. This is the time to comprehensively survey the terrain and begin to build, or rebuild platforms, alliances and new territories in hitherto hostile areas. The intimate linkages between partisan politics and national security will be made prominent as politicians calculate what their assets are in the fight for control of the nation in 2019. The President could slow down or head-off a crisis involving massive depletions of powerful allies by engineering fresh concessions that gives them attractive incentives to stay close. He could also commence a delicate process of grooming and empowering a potential successor for the 2019 elections, in the event that he decides not to run.
January 11, 2017
Our Girls; Build real bridges; Slaps injure eyes & ears

Our Girls are still mostly missing in spite of the near closure of Sambisa Forest and the recovery of Nigeria from Boko Haram. Some of us continue to pray for their families and their safe return. What do you pray for in this 2017? Did you include ‘Freedom for Our Girls’ in your 2017 Prayerful Wish-List? It pays to pray for others and not just for yourself and your family. Governor Ambode has just brought true freedom to the people of Badagry. His government has built a 500-metre bridge in Badagry among many new projects being executed. Bridges cut distances and costs, bringing communities together but have been largely neglected by governments with the notable exception of the wonderful example of Federal-State cooperation, the Lagos Lekki Bridge, built during the Fashola administration. Nigeria requires 100 new bridges in new directions for development to break the stranglehold of the colonial-driven major roads built to evacuate goods to the UK and now largely abandoned by the federal government. If 2017 can become the year of bridges, we will get to places through ‘bridge short cuts’. More bridges please!!! Meanwhile we have been waiting 25 years for the 2nd Niger Bridge.
In the light of the political profligacy, in the past and ongoing, I think we all need to do reality checks regularly. My reality check is what I see in my clinic. Every family is affected one way or another by illness in members of the family or friends or co-workers. I see the pain of illness and the joy of health daily in my work and contacts. This week I saw in my clinic a three-year old girl who was blind since birth in both eyes, a 25-year old woman who will never have a pregnancy because she has no uterus, a 40-year old man who will be dead from liver cirrhosis by Feb 1, a 15-year old girl pregnant for her father’s brother, a house girl pregnant for her employer’s husband, a 51-year old man who has cancer of the pancreas, a 10-year old boy with one testicle, a 13-year of girl with a breast lump probably not malignant, a 25-year old undergraduate with a breast lump probably malignant, a 30-year old woman with a 28-week pregnancy with twins only one of which is alive, a 29-year old with kidney stones and blood in the urine and backache, a 45-year old politician and a 55-year old priest and a 60-year old woman lawyer all with fatty liver disease, a 35-year old man with a scrotal fluid collection-hydrocoele, a 25-year old woman with a pregnancy of a baby with short limbs, three women with ectopic pregnancy not in the uterus, several women with dead pregnancies in the uterus and many women with perfectly normal pregnancies. One of the most painful to me personally was a child who had lost an eye to a slap from a parent.
Slap injuries really annoy me because of all the diseases and conditions mentioned that we see daily mentioned above, the one really preventable condition is a slap injury and yet it is so common, slap injuries are not the only problem affecting the eye. The SLAP EYE INJURY is followed quickly in numbers by the BEATING EYE INJURY from beatings at home and in school using canes, belts, whips and often affects innocent children and bystanders as the weapon for beating is raised over the shoulder or the individual being beaten seeks refuge behind another individual. The dirty slap and the beating eye injuries from family, friends, workmates or foes and enemies like teachers, bullies, security personnel and other violent people are recognised medical effects of GBH- Grievous Bodily Harm- an assault.
But partial or total blindness in one eye is not the end of the matter. Please note how close the eye is to the ear. Do you know how many of you readers, your children and your colleagues are deaf in one ear following a perhaps long forgotten dirty slap in the past- so treasured in bad language fights –‘I will give you a dirty slap’. The force of the slap can make the eye pop out and also burst the eardrum. So next time you hear someone say ‘I will give you a dirty slap’ or takes a whip or cane to someone please take preventive action or someone may go blind and become deaf in one eye and one ear for a lifetime because you took no action. Why spend so much time in hospitals and money on investigation, medication, operation and seeing and hearing aids. SAY NO TO THE SLAP AND THE BEATING.
When did Nigeria sign on to babysit and offer geriatric care to anyone elected or imposed on it? Yes, a pension is eight and just for long service, but is politics worthy of such stupendous rewards? Nigeria’s eternal gratitude to its voted and coup-leading Presidents, Vice Presidents, High Civil Servants, Governors, Deputy Governors, has recently been partly measured. It grew exponentially under the Jonathan era. To complicate matters it seems that such people are blessed with long life meaning that we have many, some say too many, ex-leaders to feed, clothe, bath, transport, medicate, and eventually terminate in a grand funeral.

•[To be continued]

January 11, 2017
Pretentious nebulous verbosity?
Like a chameleon: one eye on the future, one eye on the past
– Malagasy proverb

Professor Jibrin Ibrahim, the Friday back page columnist of the Daily Trust, wrote a preview contribution under the title, ‘2017 Trend Analysis and the Contours of Inertia’. In an Internet group we belong to, the respected law professor, Awwal Yadudu, took up Jibrin on his projection that the Shia issue could represent the major security problem in 2017 and on the value of projections generally, concluding with a reference to the book by A. Stanislav, Social Science as Sorcery (1972), described by Wikipedia as an indictment of “pretentious nebulous verbosity which is endemic in modern social sciences”.

Except for the rude reminder represented by Donald Trump’s victory to the effect that all received wisdom should be interrogated, Stanislav’s book here is really anachronistic. Projections and trend analyses are widely-used and perfectly legitimate tools employed by all policy and decision makers in governance and the economy. Looking ahead is risky but rewarding if you get at least some of the projections right. The material below was what I published around this time last year, representing my understanding of key issues that the nation will deal with in 2016. I will leave you to judge, with the benefits of hindsight, if it represents pretentious nebulous verbosity. Before you do that please join me to pray for the soul of Malam Sanusi Abubakar, an economist who soiled his boots in the best traditions of an activist. May Allah grant him Aljanna.

Happy New Year.

2016: A watch list

This year will define the basic character of the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari and highlight opportunities and limitations that will challenge the administration and the nation. In this first, full working year of President Buhari, a number of major issues should be kept under watch.
- The economy
The Nigerian economy will be severely challenged in 2016. The dramatic fall in crude prices and uncertainties around attracting increased foreign investment will slow down growth. Plugging major leakages in revenue collection could improve available funds, but institutions involved in raising revenues need to be strengthened and their capacities improved. The pro-poor provisions in the 2016 budget are ambitious and bold, but their successful implementation will be predicated on quality conceptualisation, planning and sustainability. Major fiscal and monetary policy decisions will represent areas of intense interest, as all social segments will feel the effects of an economy that will go through a difficult period. APC and PDP legislators will test their strengths on budget debates, and the legislature as a whole may fight against some of its provisions which affect them.
- Security
The Boko Haram insurgency is damaged, but not crippled to a point where it will not continue to threaten population. There are questions about the credibility of the military’s successes, principally because of conflicting narratives over the presence of insurgents in Sambisa forest, in towns and villages as well as cells in many areas that can strike with guns or suicide bombs. The captive Chibok girls will continue to haunt the fight against Boko Haram, and managing two million IDPs will be a major challenge for the administration.

The investigation of former militant leaders will trigger a resurgence of violent activity in the Niger Delta. Increased military presence in the area will pitch the militants and the military in direct confrontations under an administration determined to stamp its authority against violence. The Biafra agitation will be tested in terms of its support and capacity to take on the Nigerian state, with the ongoing trials of its leaders. The Shiite movement in the North will continue to be a source of stress and tension, and the manner the state handles the detention and trial of its leader will be a major factor in determining future Shiite-government relations. Managing national security in the context of increasingly limited resources will be a major problem for the administration.
- Fighting corruption
The administration enjoys popular support in its fight against corruption. Spectacular revelations about massive theft of public funds in many sectors of the economy suggest that many high profile individuals, including some who are pillars of the ruling party investigated and prosecuted. There are concerns over the degree to which the legislature will support the President in this ever-expanding campaign, with many legislators likely to be fingered, or have their cases re-opened. There are also legitimate concerns regarding the integrity and capacity of the judiciary to process possibly hundreds of cases. The possibility of the state being stonewalled by a weak and compromised judiciary and powerful interests with considerable mileage in avoiding penalties is real. Nigerians will be frustrated at the pace of investigations and trials, and there is a genuine possibility that too much of the administration’s time and energy will be devoted to pursuing corruption cases at the expense of imaginative and productive policies that should rebuild the economy and strengthen institutions of governance.
- Public institutions
The Buhari administration inherited weak and compromised public institutions that are vital to re-engineering the economy, plugging leakages and reducing corruption. It will need to radically improve basic policing institutions to turn the tide against crime and internal security challenges. The public service has been very badly damaged by the previous administration, and it will need an extensive review of its basic philosophy, operations and leadership to bring it up to the required level as the key institution in protecting public interest and serving as the foundation of good governance.
- Governance and politics
The real character of the All Progressives Congress (APC) will begin to show as the spoils of victory are distributed and the real business of running the country becomes the major focus. Key elements in the APC, such as the character and persona of President Buhari, the often-conflicting interests of very powerful office-holders who hold varied opinions over the real meaning of the ‘change’ mantra, the chieftains from parties who led and submitted to the merger, and Nigerians who expect dramatic and quality changes in the conditions of their lives will clash or reinforce each other this year. The manner President Buhari relates with the legislature, particularly the Senate, will be an important factor in the degree to which he succeeds in pushing through critical legislation, or is frustrated in the fight against corruption.

Disgruntled party chieftains can be ignored only up to a point. The lessons from the damage done to the defeated PDP by its members who defected with much of its assets will need to be carefully read and understood. Intra-party disputes will become more pronounced, and will be made worse unless the party is made strong and relevant by all political office holders at all levels. The administration will need to pay close attention to managing regional and religious threats, and its disposition to the elite with capacities for mischief or improving popular support will be tested. Ambitious politicians with an eye on 2019 could divert attention and energy from creating synergy in policies and programmes at all levels of government.
- Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
The PDP is unlikely to recover from its many and varied challenges any time soon. Its internal schisms and the large numbers of its present and former leaders who are being mentioned in scams of all types will deplete its capacity to re-invent itself. It is unlikely to benefit from disputes within APC, or provide an effective opposition outside the legislature. Nonetheless, its members in the National Assembly are a vital asset, and they could exploit intra-APC disputes to damage the administration’s plans and programmes.
- President Jonathan
The noose is increasingly tightening around President Jonathan’s neck, with more and more revelations about scams and outright thefts that took place under his watch. It is a matter of time before his personal role and others, such as Dr. Okonjo-Iweala, Alison-Maduekwe and other key ministers and officials are more closely scrutinised. President Buhari seems bent on extending the frontiers of enquiry into the management and abuse of public funds and other assets. It is unlikely that President Jonathan and former senior ministers will evade complicity in some of them. President Buhari may have to raise the profile of the fight against corruption and the inmates in EFCC holding cells by nodding towards the investigation and possible trial of the former President and key ministers.
- The Buhari factor
Nigerians will become better acquainted with the persona and character of President Buhari. So far he has come across as determined and focused. He has been the face and voice of his administration, and has shown a personal trait of intolerance against corruption and threats to national security. In 2016, Nigerians will see whether he plans to yield some space to his Vice President and some of his ministers with solid accomplishments, to complement his image of strong personal integrity and unbending will. His temperament and disposition will be tested by the capacity of corrupt people to fight back, to be frustrated by compromised or weak institutions, or by the imperative of making compromises where they become necessary. President Buhari will retain wide popular support as he fights corruption, but in 2016, he also has to lay the foundations of solid socio-economic achievements. These will be his asset as an elite steeped in a tradition of pillage and plunder fight him back.
January 4, 2017
Our Girls; Police Barracks; Kaduna Killing; Bridge Bombing

Our girls are still missing since April 15, 2014. As the year 2017 begins painfully for many parents, may they all return safely, Amen and Happy New Year 2017 to you and yours.
The collapse of the Police Barracks with the death of a recently transferred Sergeant and his visitor speaks volumes of the level of ‘responsibility for staff movement’ and discipline in the uniformed services as an ‘unsafe building’ on which quit notices had been administered twice. It also tells of the quality of maintenance in Nigeria. The police barracks nationwide are unsightly buildings wholly-owned by government with no maintenance in 50 years while government gives its (109+ 360 = 469) National Assembly (NASS) members billions annually for housing etc. What a paradox as the same police leave their collapsing barrack hovels to protect these NASS members living in luxury at Nigeria’s expense. The maintenance money, perhaps also padded heavily over the years, has been allocated and stolen by the police hierarchy or was stolen elsewhere so there was no allocation. NASS could investigate sums allocated for ‘maintenance’, though the exorbitantly high NASS salaries and perks, SAP, are partly responsible for under-allocations in budgets. In the 60s, the standards decay had not set in. As students in St Gregory’s College Ikoyi, we lived next to a clean Obalende Police barracks. Historically the coups led to the military policy of a weakening the police through a reduced or diverted budget and a blind eye to internal fraud which resulting in massive diversion of funds for maintenance and barrack buildings into private pockets making barracks – a disgrace to Nigeria and uninhabitable by human beings. We should recall the Channels TV investigation into the Command Training College in Ikeja and the withdrawal of the Americans from a joint training exercise at that same college because the sanitary and teaching standards were subhuman. Add the persistent failure of the police to aspire to Global Police Practice by establishing an International Standard Forensic Laboratory in spite of checkable N50m annual budget allocations ‘BELIEVED TO BE STOLEN’. Yes, a FORENSIC LAB is at last coming on stream but will maintenance corruption remain? Of course some local heads will roll, but the big fish will continue to escape. President Buhari should enquire as to who ‘chopped’ or mismanaged the police building maintenance money over the years. Could the police corruption 1999 to 2014 be any less than the military corruption being investigated by an EFCC crippled and made ‘headless’ by NASS questionably motivated refusal to confirm Magu?
You can then see our predicament in a country were FINGER-PRINTING AND FACE PHOTOS are not routine in every station and added automatically to a Nigerian data base. Why not use common cell phones. How do we use the existing databases -Voter, Driver’s Licence, Passport, Cell Phone SIM Registration, Bank BVN, Tax [TIN] etc.? Are they interlinked, crosslinked for security or kept separate, fragmented, incomplete and virus-corrupted by recruited ‘419’ experts to protect a corrupt elite?
Can we get some honest results from NASS enquires into other people’s activities? The second reading of the law apparently criminalising even accusations against NASS members in social media suggests NASS will be protected. Accusations always come before investigation and prosecution. Unfortunately there appears to be NO PARALLEL LAW PROTECTING THE CITIZENS FROM OUTRAGEOUS CLAIMS, LYING AND STEALING BY POLITICIANS in general and NASS members in particular which has an unrepentant, and unenviable reputation in probity and leadership qualities and love of country aka nationalism. It is on record that even actual charges often do not result in any shame or punishment for NASS members who appear to mercilessly adverse to higher moral goals and have a very thick skin, so the new law will only attempt to muzzle the Nigerian citizen more. This law will allow NASS members to continue their unbridled and avaricious grip on power for their own benefit and not that of the nation which still lacks Nigerians who love Nigeria in most political offices.
Since forever, each spike of killing fellow Nigerians in Southern Kaduna results in a spike of the same political platitudes, a lull and further killings of fellow Nigerians. This cycle of murder and violence matches the three+million IDP, 30,000 dead siege of Nigeria by Boko Haram, the 25,000 dead blood soaked trial of Fulani herdsmen criss-crossing the country. Is this a country with a future when we add the disasters of false federalism? In the actual electrical and economic darkness of the times as we end the year with two hours of power a day and nearly N490:1$; the foiling of the plot to blow up Third Lagos Mainland Bridge must bring congratulations to the security services. The press should not give too many details or over-flog the issue so as not to spread the infection. I am not sure that we ever had regular or irregular surveillance patrols along the underbridge water route to detect criminal activity or recruited local fishermen as patrols or spies on strangers. Even the on-bridge police patrols to secure rush hour traffic seem to have been withdrawn. Surely there are some constants in security that limits crime and terrorism? Unfortunately the stepped-up police patrols and the complementary FRSC and other patrols inside cities and on expressways make life miserable for travellers, driving tourists away.
We must put INCREDIBLY KNOWLEGEBLE AND NATIONALISTIC PERSONS IN POWER at the next elections. Search.

January 4, 2017
Southern Kaduna

Events in Southern Kaduna are once again the focus of national attention and concern. Home to roughly one-fourth of a state that captures and reflects the basic essence of northern Nigeria, many of the residents in this area spent the Christmas in partial lockdown following days of protests and clashes. The tipping point were the attacks on the governor, his deputy and members of the State Security Council who had decided to hold a meeting in the largest town in the area, Kafanchan, to find a way out of the killings and reprisals that had become almost endemic in and around many villages in many parts of the region in the last few years. These killings had created problems which had become more pronounced with the persistent mention of Fulani as attackers and the prominence of partisan politics as a factor in responses and mobilisation of passions. Villagers will now confront a new reality: hundreds of soldiers, policemen and an assortment of security personnel, who will be part of their lives for a few weeks or for much longer, depending on the state’s perception of the threat which villagers and herders pose to each other and to national security.

Significantly, this very presence will give a large part of the population the comfort and assurance it seeks from a state that had appeared too distant and indifferent. While security agents attempt to keep citizens from taking on each other and anyone else identified as the enemy through sharply-defined prisms of faith, ethnicity and relationship with the state government, Kaduna State government will labour to convince the world that it is not punishing naked women and youths who defied a curfew to attack Governor el-Rufai and show utter contempt for laws of the land.

The Federal Government will watch to see if it has to design a new security outfit for long-term stay, similar to the one next door in Plateau State. New frontiers in propaganda will be opened. Some communities will say they are being occupied, while the real culprits, the Fulani herders and their political backers roam free, planning new attacks. Some will urge the state to lean hard on citizens from communities and politicians who encourage them to believe they have earned the right to ignore the state completely while they go for their pounds of flesh or when they design their own protection. Churches and mosques and the social media will take up battles, making all faiths part of this fight between historical oppressors and victims. Regional politics will be prominent as a factor as APC’s opposition raises its voice to reinforce the fact that this region has been a solid PDP supporter since 1999. APC itself will not abandon one of its very own, particularly one who will flash deep involvement of PDP politicians in encouraging defiance and violence.

Today’s conflicts in Southern Kaduna have deep historical and cultural roots, giving every group many good reasons to successfully plead the case for being a victim. From the 1970s, competition for political and territorial space, egged on by faith institutions and urban-based elite, began to create conflicts in parts of the region that would reverberate across the entire state or the country every time they occurred. Kasuwan Magani, Kafanchan, Zangon Kataf, the 1999 installation fights, the ‘Shari’a’ riots, ‘Miss World ‘riots, the ‘Cartoon ‘riots, 2011 post-election riots, the riots that followed the church bombing by Boko Haram in 2013 have been etched into history as horrific blood-letting occasions that made the state at a time the most dangerous place to live in because you could live or die in the hands of mobs only on the basis of your faith or location at the time. Except for the jailing of some prominent elite from the region by a Judicial Commission of Enquiry following the attempted ethnic cleansing that was Zangon Kataf, not one citizen anywhere has been punished by the state for killings and arson. Killers melted into communities, victims cried and sulked in a state that begged pained hearts to forgive, and life became cheaper with every bloodbath. Communities built arsenals for the next conflicts. Towns and cities became virtually segregated along religious and ethnic boundaries. Trust between communities broke down completely, and was worsened by partisan politics that reflected the hue of religious and partisan character. PDP’s brand of politics gave the Christian communities a prominence and a share of the spoils that belied their actual aggregate strength. They in turn stood by the party with unwavering loyalty, refusing to budge even when much of the northern Christian communities in other northern states switched sides and supported the APC.

The gradual spread of killings of villagers by suspected Fulani herders that began from the southern part of the state introduced a relatively novel element in the geo-politics of the region, and confronted the state with a very complex problem. History and ecology have combined to create an elaborate tapestry of communities, cultures and economies that were impossible to isolate from each other. Changing patterns of land use and a politicised land ownership epidemic were pitching herders and farmers across most of the North in skirmishes. Long-term solutions required a stable political environment, enlightened policies and strong political will to craft. None have existed in the last decade or so. Communities and groups therefore designed their own protection and defined the enemy. As villagers died in greater numbers at the hand of killers that seemed impossible to arrest or stop, more and more villagers lost faith in the state to protect them. Respect for authority plummeted, demonstrated more graphically in the humiliation of the late Governor Yakowa in Zonkwa, the retreat of former Governor Yero from protesting elderly naked women in Sanga Local Government and the series of events culminating in the attacks on Governor el- Rufai.

Governor el-Rufai’s personality and brand of politics have not prepared him well to deal with the daunting cumulative legacy in Southern Kaduna State. The voters from the region rejected him, preferring to stick with the sinking PDP. He has been unable to build political bridges with the region, choosing to operate with politicians without any weight in their communities. Prominent politicians and elders from the region who would have been inclined to work with and for him have been alienated by his tendency to believe that all past is a liability, and he can create his own world. He has accumulated massive hostility from a Christian community from many sources going as far back as a re-tweet some years ago which some say insulted their faith, to the plan to regulate religious preaching, to plans to demolish ‘Gbagi Villa’, a highbrow, largely Christian location in Kaduna he insists is illegally built and must be demolished. PDP politicians in the state have made massive political capital out of the governor’s travails with Christians and Southern Kaduna communities, in many instances specifically and openly urging disobedience to authority in the name of resistance.

Yet, Governor el-Rufai needs support to pull the state from the brink of a long-drawn crisis that will suck in a lot more than the rest of the region, the state and the nation. He is already deeply engaged in the trenches with the Shia, a group with rich credentials in building strategic alliances with religions and sects that would further its cause. This is the time to advise that the mobilisation of law enforcement agents must be accompanied by serious thinking over exactly what it is to accomplish. At all cost, it must not stay in place of peace and security that does not require soldiers and police to enforce with boots on the ground. Communities need to be assured that they are safe, and this will involve the elimination of the threats from attacks as well as attacks from other communities. The governor should engage key clergy, community leaders, politicians and elders from the region and other parts of the state to help identify possible solutions in the long term, and to bring down tension in the short term. It will be a serious mistake for the governor to believe that events in Southern Kaduna State are about him. They pre-date him, and will in all probability outlive him. Today, it is his lot to deal with a very serious and complex manifestation of an old problem. If he is unable to mobilise a lot more than his officials and security agents and re-examine his do-it-all-alone philosophy to get over this challenge, it will be about him. And that will be an even bigger tragedy, because a major part of the problem sees him as the problem.

December 28, 2016
Our Girls; Identify ‘Love and Work for Nigeria’

Our girls are still missing since April 15th 2014. As the year ends may they all return safely, Amen.’A Poem Unread Is Dead’ and there will be nothing more to be said!!!! I want to share with you my 2016 Christmas Poem read at Trenchard Hall University of Ibadan Christmas Concert. Preamble: In our greed, Nigeria failed to feed our own Nigerian family of IDPs and thus created a crisis of malnutrition and starvation in our IDP camps awaiting a UN solution while Fellow Nigerians steal their food. What manner of criminal culpable and preventable incompetence is that @Christmas?
POEM: Where do we go from here?/ It is so difficult to generate Christmas Cheer/ Empty bank accounts are creating Christmas fear/ Empty pockets shed a Christmas child’s tear/ A new meaning for cashless economy/We have no bank card to use as money/Naira worth less than toilet paper/ Disappears like water vapour /With no money to travel home or for presents
Parents’, replace Christmas presents by Christ’s presence/ Christmas is under deadly attack/ / Throwing our life, work and home off-track/ Merry Christmas replaced by an anonymous ‘Season’s Greeting’ Pack / Who wants Christmas Dead?/ ISIS, Boko Haram and now Berlin/We must make sure they do not win./How will the living cope/ 3 million IDPs [Internally Displaced Persons], malnourished cannot give a Christmas laugh/ As their food is stolen, cut by half
But December 25th, Christmas, is an annual reminder/ For us to be kinder/ To friend and foe, employee and enemy/ Christ forgave the repentant thief/ And gave him Heavenly relief /There is no repentant politician to forgive/ We die in penury, their progeny in luxury live/ Perhaps it is time to find a person in need/ And do a good Christ-like deed/ Are you an employer of labour/ Then it is time to imitate your Saviour/ If only our politicians listened as well/ Then we would not be living in this kobo-less hell/ Powerless, waterless, cashless/ But politicians could not care less/ Today’s Christmas Concert carols lighten the load/ Of the tormented timid and the brave bold/ Rich or poor, Christmas offers everyone a free gift –the Child Christ / Christ is be born on Christmas Day / Will you rock the cradle or move it out of your wicked way?/ Will Baby Jesus smile at what you do and say? / This Christmas you may be empty-handed/ But never be empty-hearted/ Give a BJS, Baby Jesus Smile/ To bring the Christmas Sun/ To someone… and everyone/ Merry Christmas END
I hope you had a good Christmas and shared it with someone in serious need, and shared a smile and some fun. Even the poor are entitled to laugh.
There is no doubt we are in serious trouble. I say this in spite of the efforts of this government to rescue the country through Presidential and official reduction in the traditional ‘top down corruption’. But ‘uniformed’ corruption at the grassroots is alive and very well. Buhari hopefully is not corrupt. Are those around him? How much have we saved as ‘the President is not corrupt’? Corruption is also about ‘Policy Corruption’. One policy like killing the railways can impoverish a country while enriching trailer owners. One policy like developing Tin Can Port instead of Apapa Port can guarantee a life of haulage instead of rail evacuation. One negative power policy can provide ZERO power forcing economic darkness and environmental pollution. One policy can pit an immoral Federal Might against pauperised states’ right to develop and build 100 Lekki Bridges nationwide. One policy can turn an oil nation into a generator generation ‘exporting raw oil material and importing ‘fine finished fuel’. Some say this government should ignore or legitimise the wholescale politically driven robbery over many years also used by all parties to fund fraudulent elections as ‘war chests’. We have been here six times before with tumbling naira and quality of life, absent salaries and high loans and ‘belt tightening’. It is hard to stomach the stolen sums–the cause of part of our current penury complicated by policy weaknesses.
A friend Professor Osofisan asked rhetorically ‘Is this what we are going to leave for our children?’ It appears so. The change may be in progress but in less than two years, the battle lines of politics will be drawn again and billions of naira will feed a dirty billion poster and mega billboard advert campaign and the campaign trail of vultures, vagabonds and voters-for-sale, all to expound the questionable virtues of those with political ambition but little or no pedigree, personality, policy or potential to actually change current misfortune and stop ‘50 year corruption curse’ against the poor and rich Nigerian alike.
Check out your friends, acquaintances, even strangers you come across for their sterling qualities in this koboless country. Can they be introduced into the next political race to save Nigeria? Of course sterling qualities before being elected or selected often fail in office. Nigerian leaders have covered the spectrum. Too few have succeeded. Put an illiterate, professional, man, woman, rich or poor there. Most failed spectacularly but almost without exception come away rich and in-famous for their capacity to acquire huge chunks of national cake for themselves and progeny. All this while in ‘service’. Find future politicians who will LOVE AND WORK FOR NIGERIA to make it grow, not regress! HAPPY NEW YEAR.

December 28, 2016