The Nation Newspaper

Category: Wednesday

Gumi and his chorus line

There’s a certain tendency among the Nigerian elite whose only formula for relevance is hammering on our ethnic and religious fault lines. For them no disaster or tragedy is too grievous to be exploited for diabolical ends.

No surprise therefore that the killing by the army in Tudun Biri, Igabi Local Government Area of Kaduna State, of over 120 innocent citizens in a drone attack, has seen them crawling out of the woodwork in their numbers.

This latest incident has triggered widespread anger and soul-searching given that it’s not the first. Ali Ndume, senator representing Borno South Senatorial District at the National Assembly, says they have happened 16 times with a death toll of 485.

In any time or clime people would demand answers for such a calamity. The Nigeria Army insists the bombing was not intentional. While many are inclined to believe them given that there’s no logical reason why villagers in some remote part of Kaduna State would be deliberately targeted for elimination, there’s a sense of frustration that the military haven’t learnt any lessons from past incidents.

This could be down to the fact that consequences were non-existent. Who was held to account? What was the punishment? The establishment just went its merry way, probably arguing that these things happen.

In some countries heads would roll because of the monumental embarrassment and shock this has caused to the system. We may yet see people pay a price for incompetence or errors of judgement given that President Bola Tinubu has vowed to punish those found culpable.

While reasonable demands for answers keep pouring in, we are also seeing an orchestrated effort by the usual suspects to fill the void with insane and dangerous conspiracy theories that can destabilise the country unless there’s pushback.

For instance, controversial cleric Sheikh Ahmad Gumi, has categorically stated that the bombing wasn’t an error. Delivering his weekly sermon at the Sultan Bello Mosque, Kaduna, he argued that if the first bomb dropped on the people was a mistake, the second that targeted those evacuating the bodies 30 minutes later – as claimed by the villagers – couldn’t be described as such.

He said: “I kept telling you not to invite people who see war as a solution but people refused to listen. Here it’s now. War is never a joke because it affects everybody. I warned you on this but you keep saying they should be killed.

“It’s you that will be killed. That bomb was meant to target the families of some people so as to kill their children and wives.”

His suggestion is that victims were targeted because of who they were – ordinary Muslims out on a religious procession. The allegation that the bombing had sinister religious or ethnic undertones is a weighty one to make – especially when not backed up by any evidence other than one’s extreme assumptions.

Trotting out the same sectarian drivel, was former Executive Secretary of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), Prof. Usman Yusuf, who found a way to link the tragedy to the outcome of the 2023 presidential election, military postings and even fallout from the coup in Niger Republic.

In an interview on Arise TV, he argued that the President and Vice President were both Muslims, yet Muslims in the North were still being killed.

He stated: “Our people in the North are saying you are killing Muslims, inflicting a lot more pain on Muslims. You closed the borders along all the seven Northern states because you want to go to war with Niger. You are inflicting pain. Look at the military hierarchy, people are being mischievous. Look at the operational military hierarchy and look at their religion. The military needs to be very careful and start doing damage control fast.’’

The professor’s outburst suggests that in the last eight years when Muhammadu Buhari – a Muslim was president – Muslims were not killed in conflict situations across the North, or that borders in different parts of the country were not shut. In fact, the point was made that while they were firmly closed down South, up North they were only so in name.

Another contributor to the debate, a Sokoto-based Islamic teacher, Sheikh Muhammad Yabo, bemoaned the fact that error bombings happened only in the North, without a single one occurring down South. Wow! I know of quota and federal character requirements in our statutes, but I wasn’t aware they also applied to human tragedies.

Read Also: Kaduna bombing: Tinubu’s daughter visits victims, donates N5m to injured survivors

One of the more interesting interventions was from a former Special Assistant on Digital Communications to Buhari, Bashir Ahmad. He posted this on his X handle: “Haba! You can’t kill 126 innocent souls – a hundred and twenty-six civilians, and just call it a mistake. I can’t even remember a time when the troops killed such a number of terrorists anywhere in this country at once.”

The internet never forgets they say. So people swiftly reminded him of his tweet dated January 18, 2017 in which he announced: “A presidential delegation led by COS, Abba Kyari, will today visit Rann, Borno, where NAF accidently bombed a civilian community yesterday.”

That error air strike in a town hosting thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs) left 126 dead – among them aid workers and refugees. One estimate by Médecins Sans Frontières put the toll at 170, others say as many as 236 died.

Aside foreign groups like Human Rights Watch and the like, not many remember vociferous cries of condemnation from those who are now vocally condemning “the killing of Northerners.”

One of the biggest tragedies to have befallen Nigeria is the mismanagement of the Boko Haram sect in its infancy, and the subsequent killing of its founder, Mohammed Yusuf, in murky circumstances. Those actions laid the foundation for the transformation of a local irritant into an insurgency that has ravaged the Northeast and destroyed its economy in the last decade. The bungling was pulled off by an administration headed by a Northerner, Umaru Yar’Adua.

The violence by Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) is estimated to have killed more than 35,000 people between 2009 and 2020. But in a 2021 report, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), put the total number of those killed at nearly 350,000 – ten times higher.

All of these losses were incurred in the North. Some of those fatalities occurred when suicide bombers deliberately targeted mosques. Not much was heard from Gumi and his fellow regional and religious champions about the atrocities. It’s almost like they are saying: ‘it is okay when we are in charge and killing ourselves, but not so when someone else is calling the shots.’

That tells me their bitter, hypocritical venting is driven more by petty grievances over loss of privilege and advantage than genuine compassion for the victims of Tudun Biri.

While we are asking how much longer the military can continue making these avoidable errors, we should also be querying how long the country can continue to humour ethnic and religious extremists whose only agenda is to further divide us.

When Gumi is not attacking President Tinubu for appointing Nyesom Wike – a Southerner and Christian – Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister (as if the position was exclusively reserved for his region), he’s making the case for coddling of bandits in the Northwest who think nothing of slaughtering scores of hapless villagers, or setting their dwellings ablaze for failing to pay protection levies.

His extreme and inflammatory rhetoric has gone on for long enough. It’s time more people said to him: enough is enough.

Thankfully, the greater percentage of the elite don’t subscribe to his ideas. Some of them have taken practical steps to show compassion to the victims. Senators have donated their December salaries. The Northern Caucus of the House of Representatives, many individuals and groups have committed to giving millions to the devastated community. What has Gumi and his chorus line done for the people he claims to love so much beyond mischievous fault-finding?

December 13, 2023
Ondo again: Aiyedatiwa as Acting Governor

“A formal letter regarding the medical leave and a notice formally transferring power in line with the Nigerian Constitution will be transmitted to the House of Assembly.

“In the absence of Governor Akeredolu, the Deputy Governor, Hon. Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa, will assume the responsibilities of the Governor in an acting capacity.” —Governor Rotimi Akeredolu’s Chief Press Secretary, Richard Olatunde, in Akure on Monday, December 11, 2023

Ondo is a very lucky state, and it is not luck that came by happenstance. It is luck well earned, rather than merely bestowed. For example, the state’s literacy rate is among the highest in the nation; its political sophistication is unparalleled; and it’s among the few states in the nation that contributes to the nation’s wealth through oil and other mineral resources. It is no wonder then that far more politicians, lawyers, and columnists from outside the state than citizens living in the state have had a lot to say about the seeming governance crisis believed to have been caused by the protracted illness of the state Governor, Rotimi Akeredolu, SAN, CON.

Unfortunately, however, most commentators had limited knowledge of the issues involved. Most of them hang their opinion on the constitutional provision of power transfer to Akeredolu’s Deputy, Lucky Aiyedatiwa, in the event of a prolonged absence of the Governor from the state, for whatever reason. Nobody cared that, since he had been going abroad for treatment, Akeredolu had previously transferred power to his Deputy at least once each year since 2021, the latest being between June and September 2023. He would have continued in power but for the reasons stated previously on this column (Ondo state on my mind, The Nation, October 18, 2023) and Aketi, Lucky, and the future of Ondo state, The Nation, October 25, 2023). It was also for the same reasons that the House of Assembly sought to impeach him.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took the foregoing into consideration, when he ordered the maintenance of the status quo, following a meeting with Akeredolu’s representative, the Deputy Governor, the Speaker of the House of Assembly, the Secretary to the State Government, the state Chairman of APC, and others on Friday, November 24, 2023. The understanding then was that, since the Governor was still alert and claimed he was in control of the state, Ondo politicians, especially the Deputy Governor, would act in good faith, by keeping the wheel of governance moving until such a time that the official transfer of power would be necessary. However, rather than do that, the Deputy Governor refused to go along with the arrangement. Honestly, I cannot blame him for that, except that he should have gone about it quietly. Instead, he orchestrated a media blitz, including a petition to himself, rather than to the Governor, by one of his supporters on the cabinet, alleging fraud and sending documents to a purported “forensic expert”.

I had anticipated these shenanigans, following the President’s November intervention. Here’s the way I put it in my November 29 column below: “I use the word “truce” in the above title in its true sense of temporary cessation of hostilities, although the President meant to put an end to them. Nevertheless, I fear that maneuvres and intrigues will continue underground and may possibly come to the fore later. The driving forces will be greed, lust, and the upcoming governorship election in the state, which fomented the loss of trust in the first place” (The President and the Ondo truce, The Nation, November 29, 2023).

If only Aiyedatiwa had been a little patient, all that would have been unnecessary, as Akeredolu decided over the weekend that he would go back to Germany for further medical treatment and transfer power to his Deputy. With this development, the President’s political solution had to give way to the constitutional path of formal transfer of power. It was not surprising, therefore, that the President again summoned the lead actors in Ondo state to Abuja yesterday (Monday, December 11, 2023) to order compliance with the constitutional provision on the transfer of power. The above quote from Governor Akeredolu’s Chief Press Secretary was consequent to that order.

Read Also: Kaduna bombing: Tinubu’s daughter visits victims, donates N5m to injured survivors

It may appear that Aiyedatiwa is the ultimate beneficiary of the mischief he has orchestrated, which has put the state in bad light. It is, however, unfair to blame him alone. As I indicated in Ondo state on my mind (October 18, 2023), Akeredolu and his family cannot escape culpability. True, Akeredolu had reasons to withdraw power from Aiyedatiwa on his return to the country on September 7, 2023. Nevertheless, his failure to disclose those reasons and his decision (actually more of his family’s) to remain in Ibadan rather than Government House or even Owo, his hometown (like Governor Alex Otti of Abia state), clearly open him to blame. Even more blame flows in his direction for failure to talk to the people of the state he governs about his illness or merely that he was going abroad for treatment. That’s why speculations and mischiefs abound about his illness and his government.

Be that as it may, the ball Aiyedatiwa had been struggling to kick is now on his half of the field. How he plays it will determine not just the quality of governance in the state from now until further notice. It will also determine his own fate as a leader. However, he must remember at all times that he is only an Acting Governor, not the Governor. He is acting on behalf of, not as, Governor. This means that he is not in a position to destabilise the structures and programmes put in place by his boss. Indeed, the President’s “status quo” of November 24 remains. The only difference is the constitutional power now being formally transferred to him to “act” on behalf of the Governor.

Come to think of it, the position of “Acting Governor” is an aberration, like other aberrations in our political system, such as the legislators’ humongous salaries and allowances. We have yet another aberration in the so-called “Doctrine of Necessity”. Not in America, whose constitution we copied, does such a position or doctrine exist. It must be emphasised here, however, that the doctrine of necessity is not at play as in Yar’Adua’s case. While Yar’Adua was not in a position to concede to the transfer of power or even sign necessary documents, Akeredolu conceded power and signed the necessary letter to that effect.

It is now up to Aiyedatiwa to rally appropriate state officials, lift the workers’ morale, raise the state’s profile once again, and give hope to its citizens.

December 13, 2023
Intel failure deaths. Political birthday presents?

We mourn with the estimated over 80 killed in the bombing against ‘terrorists’ which turned out to be a gathering of normal suffering Nigerian citizens celebrating. Later the Nigerian Army successfully got their real terrorists in another attack. We appreciate the break with deny-deny-deny as the armed forces regretfully immediately claimed responsibility and expressed shock and remorse and is working on funeral costs, funding care of the injured and hopefully the federal government will step in with adequate compensation. We must remember that many injuries require long term medical attention and even restorative operations and prosthetics -artificial limbs. Sadly, Nigeria still lags behind in the provision of modern functional electronic prosthetic limbs and prostheses for other body parts affected by bombs and road crashes, like face and skin areas.

Nigeria deserves a cutting-edge prosthetic service in a public-private sector to cater for providing the semblance of normal useful life to the millions of victims of road traffic crashes, Okada epidemic attacks, victims of violence in politics and ethnic clashes, Boko Haram and other terrorist actions with the resultant large number of victims.

Of course, it would have been better for this mistake never to have occurred and every effort must be made to limit the damage by proper long-term care of the victims and adequate moral, monetary, mental support. Beyond that, the question of military intelligence gathering comes up. Obviously, we now know, and the authorities now know, if they did not before, that every gathering in a war ravaged or terrorist invaded area is not automatically hostile. It is the duty of the military to ensure that targets are hostiles or terrorists and not just ‘maybe’. Why was the intel so misleading or was there no intel at all, and just information of a gathering presumed hostile, arrogantly waving a red flag in front of the military.

Is it possible that Nigeria’s numerous security services, clandestine and visible, had no visible or invisible presence, in this time of terrorism and in a terror attack prone area, and did not have spying eyes, ears and cell phone communication among the teaming crowd? One would have thought that intelligence gathering was a high art form in Nigeria now, especially as hopefully many of the Boko Haram sympathisers in the military have been isolated to prevent counter-spying. A lot must be learnt from this tragedy and the mental, physical and financial stability of the survivors cannot be overemphasised. They require their National Health Insurance Service, NHIS fully paid up by government and loving care if that is possible from a government so used to making ‘Demand’ of its people instead of ‘Requests’.

The recent bombing ‘demanded’ the lives of over 80 unarmed innocent hopeful Fellow Nigerians. Lives unwillingly given, forced to become instant martyrs for Nigeria and join the sacrifice of thousands of our gallant soldiers who deliberately accept that the offer of their lives daily may be ‘demanded’ or ‘requested’ of them.

Read Also: Sanwo-Olu donates 300 vehicles to security agencies

Even as we mourn our lost brothers, sisters and children in this huge tragedy, which may have been prevented with a higher ‘demand’ of ‘proof of terrorist presence at the scene’, we are faced with news of the uncomfortable financial revelations surrounding the birthday of the senate president, and not a special birthday as such -just 61years. Perhaps it is his first birthday as senate leader and we are to have four or more such meganormous money guzzling celebrations in a country burdened with a 70% poverty rate? How many Nigerians have ever given a wealthy man N1m as a birthday present, let alone a collective trans-senate and perhaps the entire NASS, LGA and MDAs adding their own ‘ten cents’ of the countries fractionated budget? Is the disgusting list of senate donors true and correct for false? This is undignified, unwarranted, unaffordable, undistinguished and unnecessary, if true. Is it true that MDAs and LGAs etc have been asked to donate? On what account heading do they sign off on such money? Is it imprest, emergency, miscellaneous, entertainment, PR or just NASS strategic extortion strategies?

Perhaps they had no choice making it a compulsory voluntary donation to stay buoyant and thriving in the juicy senate club in NASS? Please tell me how this differed from outright corruption. It will be difficult to imagine that such huge payments are made out of love or altruism and not for some fringe or central benefits by those in search of ‘juicy oversight appointments’. Of course, that thought could be wrong. Perhaps altruism is not dead after all.

Maybe the birthday man is secretly seeking to collect this huge amount of money in order to demonstrate uncommon citizens love and magnanimously ‘return money to its source-the people’ by dividing it in amounts of N500k-N1m among the over 100 most needy NGOs, orphanages, handicapped homes and schools, youth centres and youth groups like Boy Scouts, Girl Guides, etc. in his senatorial district and beyond to celebrate his birthday with the people. This would be far more politically correct than flying a plane load of politicians to a party of enormous proportions. Politicians must get the fact that ‘acts of service’ are the overriding primary reason for their selection, election and position. Service is therefore the single most important responsibility of politicians and they must demonstrate that service instead of blatant self-service. After taking N300k for Christmas/New Year, a donation of their December salary towards bombed families is too low, but thanks anyway.

December 13, 2023
Governance 2023 norms; Cancel ‘Licence to Kill’ for boats & Okada

Nigeria in 2023 must get governance right and distinguish between governance, economic downturn and misled negligent politics. The hot non-question ‘Cement Vs Asphalt?’ is a Course 1-0-1 university strictly civil engineering/engineering research/professional matter depending on the terrain, rainfall and trailer abuse by high axle weights. It is facing asphalt contractor-driven political pushback.

Politicians think they belong to some all-knowing, all-powerful ‘Politics Profession’ claiming superiority to all other professionals while denying political prostitution. They outshout professionals but ignore our rubbish roads and under-electrified country and our disillusioned citizens paying the cost in poor healthcare and overloaded trailers and lethal short-lifespan roads infected with a politically driven pothole epidemic, for which no politician offers any apology.

Nigeria deserves better norms of governance regardless of political party, tribe, sex, age or state. Existing but ignored norms include the Sustainable Development Goals and International Agency Agendas, some UN-based, and the Human Rights Court, Transparency International, and NEITI thought we failed as we are dragged down by a corruption cloud in solid minerals and petroleum.  Now our oil output has been slashed, like a slash across our throat, to 1.7m/day, even though corruption denied us this level for years! Does that 1.7m include future local refinery allocation of 3-600,000bpd?

Read Also; Makinde, Mbah, Obaseki, Aliyu present Appropriation Bills to Assemblies

In our cumulative 50+yrs of political negligence to the citizenry, politics has sunk to require international agencies input on ‘OPEN DEFECATION’ while elsewhere, governments compete over heavenly penetration with space rockets and generally beneficial serious scientific research.

You see why Nigeria suffers in spite of paying the highest undeserved salaries and perks for politicians worldwide? Yet we neglect to employ and utilise our 10,000 BSc, Masters and PhDs in Health Sciences! So why are schools, office and home toilets, really rocket science and nuclear physics in Nigeria! In a class of 50 science graduates, maybe two are in their area of training or teaching. The others are in politics, preaching etc.

Also, our governors should stop ‘Named Governor Projects’ which will die when they leave office and instead have a new norm called ‘State Project’ or ‘People Projects’. The media comment ‘Governor donates’ is wrong as it is the ‘state’s money’ being ‘given’, not ‘donated’. The governor should use a new norm ‘The state gives or allocates X’. The people own the money. Governors are ‘state fund managers’. And governments in 2023 should stop writing rude letters to citizens they recently begged for a vote. Use a new norm, a ‘Request Notice’ is better than an emotionally destructive ‘Demand Notice’ and means the same.

‘God Forbid, Amen’ a drowning. Yet ‘God did not forbid’ when Nigeria lost more 20 citizens needless to lifejacket-less drowning in Taraba State. Sadly, there have been about five mass-drowning this year. Yet, Nigerian authorities only mourn and mourn again. Who are those responsible for failing to prevent the wiping of families from history? Who is responsible for preventing further drownings? Why are there no social media outcry and no boycott of river transport even before Christmas and new year when millions more passengers will travel by water?

Is it because we think only poor people travel by canoes and unseaworthy or overloaded boats? Everyone in the speed boats have the usually red or blue life jackets.

But the ‘Gods are not to blame’ -Ola Rotimi. Sometimes the passengers are bullied by the crew or beg the crew, resulting in overloaded boats. The passengers know the dangers, having heard of drownings or lost relatives. Passengers never give life up voluntarily. Just a few moments before, they were travelling on that water for work, pleasure, ceremony, leave or leisure,  all ‘just a boat-ride away’ but a premature death as certain as if by Boko Haram,  domestic help stabbing or in an auto-crash like the sad case of three Obas in Oyo State.

So now we are warned again, because we have ignored the danger, in fact ad nauseum, that even a simple trip ‘just a boat ride away’ can and does kill even those with great water skill, like boat crew. Yes, boat crew also drown.

The arrogance of the boat crews, captains, and boat owners, across Nigeria, in not wearing and providing life jackets makes them the primary guilty party in the ‘Boat Drowning Epidemic’ sweeping Nigeria’s waterways. But such arrogance is not new. In the 70s to 90s, seatbelts and crash helmets were not routinely worn. Drivers and passengers were arrogantly ‘resistant to therapy’.  It took Police, FRSC and the NGO, Educare Trust, campaigning and financing jingles and video messages on the air to catalyse change.  Crash helmet use faced even stiffer objection. Crash helmets abuse still leads to needless head injuries though many neurosurgeons face ‘japaitis’.

Meanwhile the high speed Okada, with apparent ‘Licence To Kill’, defying FRSC, brings misery to millions annually, and is an ignored ‘Okada Epidemic Celebration of Death’.

Beyond politics, all 2023-27 Nigerian governments must adhere to some norms using existing National Orientation Agency, the electronic media, profession and groups like teachers, students, markets, religious groups and associations to PREVENT DROWNINGS BY WEARING LIFEJACKETS, OKADA KILLINGS BY SPEED REDUCTION, HEAD INJURIES BY STRAPPED CRASH HELMET USE & ROAD ACCIDENTS BY POTHOLE FILLINGS.

Beyond economic hardship every citizen expects governments to adhere to the norm to withdraw the ‘Licence to Kill’ and truncate these Epidemics of Death plaguing the transport sector. It is merely good governance in which norms must be met even in a harsh economy.

December 6, 2023
President Tinubu: Six months and beyond

In President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 100th day in office, he was in faraway New Delhi in India, attending the G-20 Leaders Summit to which he had been invited as one of nine guests of world leaders. I had argued before then that he should avoid the first 100 days jamboree and the attendant media blitz, given the plethora of problems he met in office and which he needed time to resolve (see History and mythology of the first 100 days, The Nation, June 14, 2023, and Avoidable trap of the first 100 days, The Nation, August 23, 2023). I submitted that the press should give him six months to set his agenda. Indeed, governance and development experts, from the late Dr Henry Kissinger to our own Professor Ladipo Adamolekun, favour six months as a good take-off trajectory. They argue that a leader, whose policies and governance direction are unclear after six months in office, is hardly worthy of the position.

In Tinubu’s case, three major considerations led to the rejection of the first 100 days jamboree. First, President Tinubu needed time to unite the country, given the divisiveness that attended and followed the competitive election that brought him to power and the protracted litigation that followed. True, he won the election fair and square and according to all applicable laws. Nevertheless, with only 36.61% of the votes, nearly twice as many people voted against him than for him. Rather than close the divisions, the consecutive court judgments in Tinubu’s favour in the election cases further aggravated the divisions, partly due to the investment by his competitors in litigating his victory and partly due to the false expectations they had sold to their supporters.

Read Also: Cash crunch hits Akure

Second, although candidate Tinubu prepared an elaborate manifesto, detailing what he would like to do and achieve as President, he did so as an outsider. He needed to be in government to know what exactly was in store for his administration. And what he found was not pretty. A corporate accountant that he was before venturing into politics, it was one thing for him to know in advance that the economy he inherited was depressed. But it was another thing to realise that the national treasury was empty as the National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, would reveal later.

Third, although the National Bureau of Statistics claims to maintain a database on a variety of national issues, those figures are doubtful, largely because we don’t even know how many we are as a people since our last census, controversial as it was, went back to 2006! On the economic front he needed full access to the national accounts in order to fully grasp the enormity of the economic problems. As a result, time and care were needed to plan well.

The above obstacles notwithstanding, Tinubu engaged in major activities and took consequential economic policy decisions within the first 100 days that could shape the development of the nation and the welfare of the citizens for years to come. Four of the policies included the removal of fuel subsidy; the unification of the exchange rate; the establishment of student loans; and the development of nation-wide palliative measures. Fuel subsidy had to go because the subsidy funds were going only into a few pockets. Similarly, the exchange rate had to be unified because the Central Bank, under disgraced Godwin Emefiele, had established multiple exchange systems to favour different categories of buyers! Both systems were a shorthand for corruption. A third policy was the establishment of an elaborate system of palliatives to cushion the effects of these two major policy decisions (see Akinnaso, The President’s speech on the economy, The Nation, August 2, 2023).

Also, within the first three months, Tinubu appointed and inaugurated his cabinet and gave them mandates to work on over the next three months. He and Vice-President Kashim Shettima also took advantage of various meetings of world leaders to sell Nigeria to various investors, while also establishing bilateral relations and deepening existing ones. These engagements were necessary, given the gradual death of manufacturing and industrial production over the years as well as the level of infrastructural decay, resulting in the present depressed state of the Nigerian economy.

Over the next three months, several more appointments were made, and the administration engaged in more preparations, leading to the game-changing cabinet retreat of November 1-3, 2023, in the sixth month of the administration. The retreat introduced at least three novelties to governance at the federal level, namely, (1) performance bonds, which outline the mandates for various ministries, the key performance indicators, and the timeline for performance evaluation; (2) a Results Delivery Unit, which details the evaluation mechanisms, including performance metrics and delivery tracking templates for periodic measurements of progress; and (3) a performance monitoring mobile App with which citizens can monitor the performance of particular ministers and projects, thus ushering in an era of accountability and inclusive governance.

Unfortunately, however, the suffering masses, crushed by the economic impact of escalating inflation, fuelled by the removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of multiple exchange rates, have been the focus of the media. It matters no more that the President was praised initially for these bold policies by local and international economic experts. Citizens, of course, don’t live in the past. They live in the moment and hope for a better future. Given the raging sting of the economic bite on citizens at the moment, they can only look into the future with squinty eyes.

It is within this context that the outcry has been loud against certain government acts and practices people view as superfluous, if not profligate. They wonder, for example, why over a thousand Nigerians participated recently in the climate conference in Dubai, and why the Federal Government would sponsor as many as 422 of them in these austere times. There were also other teething problems reflected in appointments and in mixed messages.

While questioning government intentions on these matters, it is also the duty of the press to educate the public about the nature of government and why government’s economic policies need time to mature. The government’s own communication with the public on its programmes also needs significant improvement. It is not enough to announce a policy, especially one that touches the people’s lives directly, such as the removal of fuel subsidy. It is even more important to follow it up with public education programmes, even in local languages, and to encourage Nigerians to hope for a better tomorrow.

December 6, 2023
That Kaduna drone disaster

One thing that war is guaranteed to deliver is collateral damage – be it of property or persons. It doesn’t make it less of a shock when that expected loss of lives becomes reality.

On the night of Sunday, December 3, over 80 people gathered for the celebration of Maulud (birthday of the Prophet Muhammad) on a field in Tudun Biri, a village in the Igabi community of Kaduna State, became the unintended victims of a drone strike targeted at bandits by the Nigerian Army.

Local emergency services claim to have buried 85 corpses, but Amnesty International projects that the fatalities could be as high as 120. On any given day this massive waste of lives ranks as a national calamity. It is also a morale-draining embarrassment for the military in its long-drawn battle against diverse manifestations of insecurity across the country.

Army spokesperson, Brigadier General Onyema Nwachukwu, said soldiers had observed the gathering of worshippers and wrongly analysed their activities as similar to those of bandits, prompting the drone strike.

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While it is clear that the military couldn’t have intentionally targeted innocent civilians for such large scale devastation, incidents like this have become a common occurrence in the last five or six years.

In January this year, there was one in Nasarawa State where the military was accused of misfiring at unarmed civilians during air raids. Over thirty people were said to have died in that instance. After initial denials followed by a six-month silence, the Nigerian Air Force (NAF) finally admitted responsibility for the fatal error.

The United States-based organisation Human Rights Watch claims a senior commander acknowledged the January 24 airstrike in Kwatiri, Doma Local Government Area of Nasarawa, was part of an intelligence-driven operation against suspected terrorists. But other reports identified the victims of the airstrike as cattle herders with no links to terror.

In 2017, the Air Force erroneously bombed an Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camp in Rann, Borno State, killing more than 70 and injuring over 120.

These are a few notorious examples due to the large scale loss of lives. There may have been others with fewer fatalities that never arrested the imagination of the country. But irrespective of the body count, such bloody mistakes raise serious questions as to the utility of these bombings in what is largely asymmetric conflict in parts of the North.

The bandits troubling large swathes of the Northwest are in no position to go toe-to-toe with Nigeria’s conventional forces. They know that and have instead adopted and adapted methods that have kept them in the game for nearly a decade. They live amongst the people in rural communities and use them as shields when necessary; they melt into the surrounding forests at the slightest scent of the military. Their preferred vehicles for transportation and operation are motorcycles versatile in urban and jungle terrain.

That their numbers keep multiplying after all these years, so much so that the only solution that appears viable to contain them is carpet bombing, is an admission that the military hasn’t found a remedy for this unconventional foe. It is a dilemma that isn’t limited to Nigeria’s armed forces but one faced by even more powerful armies around the globe.

The United States, rated as having the most powerful military in modern times, was forced to exit the likes of Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq by inferior forces using effective guerrilla methods. The equally mighty Russian army backed out ignominiously out of the same Afghanistan when it couldn’t impose its will on local forces. But somehow the historic lessons from those encounters seem not to have seeped through to us.

I can understand why carpet bombing of terrorists may be an attractive short term option. Ideally, it is something that when driven by quality intelligence can sufficiently degrade the criminals, buying the authorities sufficient time to deploy long term solutions. Unfortunately, we’ve have been seduced into believing we are going to bomb our way out of insecurity – especially in Northern Nigeria.

Two years ago, when bandits laid siege to many Northwest states, carrying out mass abductions in secondary schools and universities, then Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, was a vocal advocate of bombing the bandits to smithereens. He was not alone. Many influential voices, among them religious leaders across the divide, felt salvation lay in aerial military action given that the locations of the terrorists were well-known. Sadly, it is in his domain that the downside of this approach has now manifested.

At that point, so much was made of how Super Tucano fighter jets which the Federal Government had just acquired would be game changers in the battle not just against bandits, but also in the longer war against Boko Haram and ISWAP in the Northeast.

The only snag was that the aircraft suppliers specified conditions under which the jets could be used – to prevent them being abused to suppress internal opposition. To create wiggle room, the then Muhammadu Buhari administration triggered a national debate about rebranding bandits as terrorists so as to bring them into the jets’ crosshairs.

So many sorties after, it is now evident that it would take more than just bombings, change of nomenclature, to banish bandits and terrorists. This is not to say, that air strikes haven’t had an effect. Anyone who tracks these things would admit we are far from the crisis points of 2021 and 2023, but nowhere close to Eldorado.

In the aftermath of the Igabi incident, the nation has been plunged into soul-searching. President Bola Tinubu has ordered an investigation of a disaster he described as disturbing. Kaduna State Governor, Uba Sani, convened a stakeholders meeting to address the situation and prevent a recurrence.

These are standard interventions which provide a sense of calm and create the impression something is being done. There would be financial compensation for families that have lost loved ones and the affected communities. But none of these things would restore the lives than have been lost. What is most important is ensuring that lessons are learnt and these tragic cycles are not revisited.

No one needs any special investigation to know that at the root of the Igabi disaster was a failure of intelligence. These things happen in war. Sometimes lives are lost to friendly fire. But such calamities become unacceptable when they are repeated.

Some estimates put the number of those killed in these bombing errors in the last seven years at well over 300. Is that an acceptable price for the progress that has been made in the war against insecurity? I doubt it.

Airstrikes cannot be totally excluded from the options available to the military. But they must be sure of what they are doing before taking actions that have potentially deadly consequences; ones that may ultimately set them back in the pursuit of their wider objectives.

More importantly, military thinkers must not stop looking for other solutions for fighting an enemy that has shown a frustrating ability to absorb all that has been thrown at it. Perhaps, it is time to deploy more ground troops into this theatre until it is relatively pacified.

In the search for answers, there would be calls for people to take responsibility for their actions or inactions that led to the massive loss of lives. But in doing so, everything must be done not to inflame the situation or dampen the morale of the military.

It is easy to be critical but this national tragedy shouldn’t be politicised. Under these circumstances we should rather wrap the flag around ourselves, seeking ways to defeat a common enemy. Everything shouldn’t be about scoring points in the court of public opinion.

December 6, 2023
The President and the Ondo truce

“The President advised all opposing parties to bury the hatchet and embrace peace, eliciting commitments to this effect.

“This means that Governor Akeredolu remains the Chief Executive of the State, Aiyedatiwa remains Deputy Governor, and members of the State Executive Council continue their respective duties, even as the leadership of the State’s House of Assembly and the APC Chapter in Ondo State is preserved.” — Presidential spokesperson, Ajuri Ngelale, on Saturday, November 25, 2023

Everyone had an opinion on the governance crisis in Ondo state in the last two months. But very few knew exactly what led to the crisis as everyone focused on the state Governor’s ill health. This is especially true of armchair columnists, sponsored reporters, and social media netizens. To be sure, the Governor’s situation had to do with the problem, but the real problem was with the Deputy Governor as I indicated in two earlier columns (October 18 and 25) in this newspaper. This is no longer the time and forum to go into those details.

Given the tension the crisis had created, only an astute and experienced politician of the stature and experience of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu could have successfully achieved the truce as stated in the above quotes by the President’s Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, Ajuri Ngelale. Here is a President, who knew about Deputy Governors up close while he was Governor of Lagos state. Besides, he knows Akeredolu and Ondo state very well and has been on top of the governance crisis there since inception.

It is important to stress that there were many parties involved in the governance crisis in Ondo state until the President’s intervention last Friday, November 24, 2023. The major actors included the Governor of Ondo State, Rotimi Akeredolu, who is currently recuperating from illness; the Deputy Governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa, who betrayed the trust the Governor had in him, when power was transferred to him as Acting Governor; the Ondo state cabinet and the tenuous relationships among its members as the majority aligned with the Governor, while a few aligned with the Deputy; the House of Assembly, which initiated the impeachment of the Deputy Governor, leading to various court filings by both sides; and the All Progressives Congress executive in the state, led by Ade Adetimehin, an erstwhile staunch supporter of the Governor, but who reportedly found himself under threat by the national Chairman of the party and started seeking new alliances.

Some have questioned the President’s decision that all the parties should maintain the status quo. As I hinted above, only those who are ignorant of the facts, are acting on sponsorship, or are simply mischievous would make such a recommendation at this point. I am sure no one would think that the President and other party leaders, including the national Party Chairman, in attendance on Friday were ignorant of the Nigerian constitution and the constitution of their political party at the time the President made his recommendations.

I use the word “truce” in the above title in its true sense of temporary cessation of hostilities, although the President meant to put an end to them. Nevertheless, I fear that maneuvres and intrigues will continue underground and may possibly come to the fore later. The driving forces will be greed, lust, and the upcoming governorship election in the state, which fomented the loss of trust in the first place.

It is very important to examine news reports and opinions on events in Ondo state in order to separate facts from fiction or mere delusion. For example, despite the clarity of the President’s recommendations and the agreements reached last Friday, there are reports still pushing the Deputy Governor’s agenda. A day after the truce, a popular mainstream newspaper put the Ondo case on its front page with various headlines, most of which were false. A close look at the newspaper’s position since the inception of the Ondo crisis easily betrays its leaning. Such false stories must stop as must sponsored stories parading measures that depart from those on which the various parties agreed at the President’s instance last Friday.

The question is whether those measures, based on a politically expedient compromise, are workable. I strongly believe they are, provided the leading actors put the state’s business ahead of their individual ambitions. However, the measures require that the lines between the executive, the legislature, the civil service, and even the political party leadership in the state be partially blurred for the next one year. They must find ways of working together to move the state forward in these rather exceptional circumstances.

Read Also: Ondo Assembly fails to declare Aiyedatiwa Acting Gov

I happen to know that there are projects and programmes that Governor Akeredolu planned to accomplish during his second term. One of them is the take-off of the newly established Local Council Development Areas, which the Governor signed into law on September 9, 2023, shortly after his return to the country. Salaries and pensions must be paid. University subventions must be paid. The infrastructure projects must continue on roads and school facilities. There are also issues that have come up, which need the government’s attention. For example, the distribution of palliatives to cushion the effects of subsidy removal, which has been going on smoothly, must continue until completed. From now on, the people must see the face of the government.

Finally, the ball is also in Governor Akeredolu’s court. He should order the state executive to meet as soon as possible. If he cannot attend in person, he should order his Deputy to chair the meeting.

On his part, the Deputy Governor should seize this opportunity as a second chance. He should summon a meeting of the leaders identified by the President and also invite the Attorney General and the Commissioners for Finance and Information to such a meeting to review how best to implement the terms of the agreement reached with the President. With such a meeting, to be held from time to time, he can begin to rebuild trust. He should henceforth spend time on state matters, rather than seeking sanctuary or succour in Abuja. He has a chance to show his leadership skills, and he should seize opportunity. Besides, it is in his best interest to honour the President’s recent intervention and ensure the successful implementation of the recommendations to which all parties agreed last Friday.

November 29, 2023
N300m present for senators = N1b loss/state

Every time you expect the National Assembly, (NASS) to act in a normal, citizen-oriented manner in pursuit of serving the electorate, its members seem to become possessed with self-importance and appear in constant search of irrational excuses to make a legal acquisition of the citizens’ property – the budget. There is such a creation as an ‘illegal legality’ or a ‘legalised illegality’ in which something obviously wrong and self-serving and clearly seen to be to the detriment of others, is maliciously and selfishly made law. Just because predecessors in NASS, similarly allocated to themselves stupendous and immoral large allowances and particularly holiday allowances, does not make that action right or proper especially when 70% of the citizens are groaning in the severe hunger of serious poverty.

The latest manifestation of this Machiavellian activity is allocating as Christmas/New Year allowance the sum of N300,000,000 each to senators i.e. the minimum wage, N30,000 of 10,000 workers for each senator. This totals N32,700,000,000, N32.7b. This does not include the substantial amount to Representatives for the same purpose.

There are three senators per state meaning that the politicians across the country will have more than N1,000,000,000 per state. Is the senators’ N300m/senator’s gain come at a N1billion loss per state? Should we the citizens be grateful? Will any of this money reach to citizens? If so, how much of it would actually reach the needy? Is this the best way to get money to the needy citizens, if they – the needy – are actually the true target of such huge funds?

We are told by the same benefiting political caucus that the money is necessary because of the high demands on all politicians by genuine and political hangers-on. The politicians are never tired of telling us about the widows, orphans, school fees, salaries, and ceremonies like weddings, namings, birthdays, burials, that they support. These claims are not properly documented in sufficient detail to justify the huge sums taken from the budget in the citizens’ name. In fact, this haphazard approach to funding the poor and needy leaves opportunity for politicians to take huge percentages of this money and divert it for their own ends. Since such money appears obviously available, Nigerians demand a proper programme with 100% proper retirement of such funds at the rate of N1b/state.

How should the money be distributed in a way that it reaches the citizens and is not trapped, reduced, diverted or sequestered into the very large and bottomless pockets of the politicians of NASS and their personal political hangers on and those who can get through the barrier of thugs, security and political cabal around each NASS member, leaving those who do not have such connections and ‘man-know-man-or woman’ with nothing?

Every state has orphanages caring for motherless babies and orphans, handicapped homes, homes for the blind and communities of really poor and many physically challenged as well as widows, very sick and needy citizens, well established NGOs and organisations like Boy Scouts, Girl Guides, Blue Crescent, Man-O-War etc. The list of well-organised, but uniformly underfunded organisations in each state is endless. But little if any of the N1billion per state will reach them. It is shameful that these organisations are almost never supported, even though they do such good work.

After several months of reduced robberies on the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, robberies and kidnappings are again being reported on the ever busy and newly rebuilt road, the main artery in and out the country from Lagos. We are grateful to the several police and Amotekun and other units which have largely reduced the high rate of kidnapping on that road. To be attacked, robbed and kidnapped are very frightening and sometimes injurious and even lethal and certainly ruinous to the years of hard work and saved income. Sometimes one wonders exactly where the kidnappers expect the huge sums they demand to come from without total ruin of the livelihood. Someone should investigate the aftereffects of kidnappings on families.

Read Also: INEC, political parties absent as NASS begin process of electoral reform

Perhaps then much more effort will be put in by government to fund and fuel the vehicles of the police and Amotekun and urge them not to remain as static patrol points but to order them to drive up and down the few kilometres each patrol unit is allocated to patrol. This will take a larger fuel allocation, much better radio linkages, better rations and more frequent supervision by the zonal commanders. I know what it is like to face murderous attack on that expressway as we were attacked at 3.30ish pm at Km 41 on March 17, 2017 when 10 murderous men stopped and surrounded 10 vehicles. Thankfully, we managed to escape, but at least one person died. A week later, the police captured them. They were so close during the attack that I recognised three of the six in the newspaper picture the following week. Prevention of such attacks is far better than the cure in hospital or paying huge money that no one has to spare.

The Lagos, Ogun and Oyo governors and their respective security and other relevant authorities should take a very active interest in the Daily Security Report from the all roads and particularly the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway. They should re-strategise and energise every effort to motivate, empower and increase the security personnel deployed to the new improved one hour 15minute Lagos Ibadan Expressway to achieve zero crime as an example to the country.

November 29, 2023
There goes Obasanjo again!

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo has a special knack for hogging the headlines. When he is not playing kingmaker, he is openly scolding traditional rulers – demanding respect. At other times, he’s posturing as some intellectual power house.

He was at it again this week, declaring that liberal democracy has failed across Africa because it was imposed by colonialists. To replace the ‘failed system’ he proposed something called ‘Afro democracy’.

All the theorising was at an event held at his Presidential Library in Abeokuta, Ogun State on Monday. The theme was ‘Rethinking Western Liberal Democracy for Africa.’

The central point of his argument was that democracy as a system of government has failed to deliver on the welfare and well-being of all the people of the continent because it wasn’t conceived here. He equally questioned whether it sufficiently addresses representation for not just the majority, but also the minority.

For starters, this novel idea was unveiled at the Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library Complex. This is not an original Nigerian or African concept. Rather it is something copied from the United States where foundations build such facilities for former leaders at locations of their choice. This shows an idea can’t be all bad just because of its source, otherwise Obasanjo wouldn’t have that grand platform to pontificate from .

There’s something rather suspicious about these proposals given their timing. For one, they come rather late in the day for the man and his continent. From 1976 to 1979, he was a military dictator superintending a transition to democratic rule. In that period he oversaw a Constituent Assembly for writing a new constitution and elections that ushered in the Second Republic. From 1999 to 2007, the Western Democracy he now despises enthroned him as civilian President.

Secondly, to suggest that democracy has failed to deliver a better quality of life across Africa is something of a wild generalisation. Perhaps, the former general should stick to drawing such conclusions about his own country which he was privileged to rule twice – the second time under democratic settings where he had every opportunity to make a difference.

Up till 2014 Obasanjo had no problems with the type of democracy practiced in Nigeria because his stock remained fairly high with those who held the levers of power. But his alienation began with the Goodluck Jonathan administrabreaking free from his suffocating yoke. His exile from the power sanctums would be exacerbated over the next eight with the All Progressives Congress’ (APC) Muhammadu Buhari. Now, he faces a longer exile with President Bola Tinubu at the helm.

Could his increasing irrelevance, as well as his failed bid to make Labour Party’s Peter Obi president, be responsible for this new campaign to junk the system of governance we are only getting used to?

Obasanjo said at the Abeokuta event: “The weakness and failure of liberal democracy as it is practised stem from its history, content, context, and practice.

“Once you move from all the people to representatives of the people, you start to encounter troubles and problems. For those who define it as the rule of the majority, should the minority be ignored, neglected, and excluded?

“In short, we have a system of government in which we have no hands to define and design, and we continue with it even when we know that it is not working for us.

“Those who brought it to us are now questioning the rightness of their invention, its deliverability, and its relevance today without reform.”

Read Also: Democracy not working for Africa because it was forced on it, says Obasanjo

Like anything developed by man, liberal democracy has its flaws and failings. But it’s suitability as a system of governance cannot be judged simply because it didn’t originate here. If our desire is that our people have a better life, then it can be argued that this system is much better than what existed before.

Our history is chock full of empires and kingdoms ruled with iron fists by monarchs. The people in many such places were just serfs and property to be sold into slavery for something as cheap as alcohol. These overlords were accountable to no one. Even the poorest example of democratic rule today provides for day-to-day accountability in governance and ultimately through elections at regular intervals.

Across the continent millions have been delivered from these forms of strongman rule. Today, they have the right to vote leaders of their choice and not have someone lord it over them. Surely our former maximum ruler can’t be proposing we reintroduce some authoritarian flavour into what we have now?

The ‘Afro democracy’ Obasanjo just dreamt up suggests that there is something inherently different about Africans that makes Western democracy ill-suited to them. Whatever it is he doesn’t say. He doesn’t tell us what would be retained or dumped from the original and what would be introduced in the new hybrid. But truth is, only democracy in its purest form can be used to harmoniously manage the ethnically diverse countries in Africa.

So, rather than nitpicking and concluding that our problems are down to the system of governance alone, I would suggest our troubles are caused by the managers of our democracy. Obasanjo, for instance, makes an interesting case study.

A man conveyed into office a second time by the constitution and elections, tried his level best while in power to subvert that same constitution. On his watch minorities in states assemblies – Plateau and Oyo – executed dodgy impeachments of sitting government with the security agencies providing cover and Obasanjo looking the other way. In both instances, the judiciary – armed with the power to check an overreaching Executive – overturned the illegality.

The great advocate of ‘Afro democracy’ was scheming again as the end of his second term drew near. Rather than respect the constitutional limit, he began plotting a third term. It was the Nigerian Senate – empowered under our democratic constitution to rein in a rogue executive – that shot down his illegal maneuver.

After being frustrated, he grudgingly started executing the transition by imposing candidates on his party. He hounded his Vice President Atiku Abubakar out of PDP and imposed Umaru Yar’Adua as candidate. The same individual who should have been statesmanly in ensuring better levels of governance and politicking, gleefully declared that the 2007 general elections were a “do or die affair.”

Democracy is not our problem, rather we have issues with those assigned to manage it. Any system that guarantees voting rights, regular and transparent elections, checks and balances in governance, independent judiciary and free press would ultimately deliver a better quality of life for the people, notwithstanding whether it originated from the North or South Poles.

Any system can be used to deliver improved economic conditions for the people where there is vision. The monarchs of the UAE conjured today’s Dubai out of what used to be a desert in fifty years. Although they were despots, South Korea’s Park Chung Hee and Indonesia’s Suharto transformed their countries. What was Obasanjo’s enduring vision for Nigeria or Africa?

When it comes to governing people, he won’t reinvent the wheel with ‘Afro democracy’?. Our problem in Nigeria and in large parts of Africa is impatience. We keep amending constitutions we have barely had time to implement. After the First Republic we dumped the Westminster model thinking it was the wrong fit. Thirty four years after adopting the American presidential model, we are being seduced for another wild goose chase.

If only Obasanjo’s proposal was driven by altruism it would been worth the time of day. But this just sounds like another attempt to discredit whatever is on the ground because he doesn’t control it. It’s just like his erstwhile deputy Atiku proposing a six-year single presidential term after losing the last elections. All these grand proposals are just about the selfish concerns of those making them. They are not the things bothering the average man in Lagos or Luanda.

November 22, 2023
The dimensions of poverty in Nigeria

In response to economic depression in Ghana, following a global slump in cocoa prices in the 1960s, Ghanaians began to migrate to Nigeria in droves in the 1970s to take advantage of the oil boom in Nigeria during that period. Within a decade, Ghanaians were everywhere in Nigeria. They were teachers. They were artisans. They were labourers, gardeners, cooks, and house-helps. They would do anything to make ends meet. As they heeded the Nigerian government deportation orders, once in 1983 and later in 1985, their emigration back home was a pitiful sight as they carried or dragged their rectangular plaid woven bags we have come to know today as Ghana-Must-Go bags.

The evacuation order by the Nigerian government followed economic slow-down in the country, largely as a result of prolonged governance deficit and growing corruption for which Ghanaians were not responsible. Today, Nigeria and Ghana literally have swapped position. Of course, all is not well with Ghana yet; but it is much better for Ghana today than it was over forty years ago. Nigeria, on the other hand, has fared much worse. True, there are noticeable improvements here and there, but the economy has nosedived, leading the government to live on borrowed funds.

A clear indication of Ghana’s economic recovery is its current poverty rate of 23.4% vis-à-vis Nigeria’s of 40.1%. Moreover, only 9% of Ghana’s population lives in “extreme poverty” (that is, less than $2 a day), while as much as 32% of Nigeria’s population lives in extreme poverty. That’s about 70 million people, which is more than twice the entire population of Ghana. On her part, Ghana has been able to take more and more people out of poverty over the years due to improved governance and superior management of funds derived from cocoa, gold, and more recently oil. Of course, Nigeria is endowed with much greater quantities of these resources than Ghana. However, they have been poorly managed and the funds derived from them have gone into a few pockets.

In addition to mismanagement and direct diversion of funds, two government policies—fuel subsidy and multiple exchange rates—were used to mask some of the corrupt practices, which deprived the masses access to necessary political goods. That’s why President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s first line of attack at corruption was the reversal of these policies during his inauguration on May 29, 2023. He has also rightly gone further to probe the activities of the Central Bank and to improve security around the nation’s oil wells and pipelines, recently leading to increased oil production. Moreover, the administration has embarked on a policy of giving back to the people some of what has been stolen from them, by establishing an elaborate palliative policy which makes funds available for farming, infrastructure, transportation, housing, and entrepreneurial training. Cash is also being made available for the poorest of the poor.

The problem, though, is that the multiple dimensions of poverty in Nigeria have hardly been properly assessed. Besides, periodic poverty alleviation measures cannot translate to poverty eradication. Yet, proper assessment of the dimensions of poverty in the country has to be done if appropriate policies were to be established to take more people out of poverty on a permanent basis.

A good starting point is the Multidimensional Poverty Measure created by the Global Poverty Working Group out of the various dimensions of poverty developed by the UNDP, the Oxford Poverty and Development Initiative, and the World Bank. The four major dimensions and their indicators (in parentheses) are: (1) Health (nutrition and child mortality); (2) Education (literacy level, often measured by years of schooling); (3) Living Standards (housing, electricity, drinking water, sanitation, cooking fuel); and (4) Monetary (daily consumption or income. Any person who suffers major deprivations in three or more of these indicators is said to be multidimensionally poor.

Read Also: Terrorism: Why Nigeria must reduce over-reliance on foreign military hardware – Badaru

Nigeria has consistently scored low on the various indicators, especially in the rural areas, where most of the population lives. What government after government has done was to throw money at the problems, often without the benefit of accurate data. We don’t even know how many we are since no census has been conducted since 2006! We’ve relied on population estimates, often by major world bodies, such as the United Nations and the World Bank, which is why many facilities are inadequate for the populations they serve. Many projects were abandoned due to inadequate funding, lack of clearly laid out implementation plans, lack of supervision, or outright corruption.

But Nigeria’s problem is even deeper than these evident measures and indicators of poverty. There is also a general planning deficit, resulting from poor governance. Fortunately, the Tinubu administration has shown signs of improvement in these areas, going by the outcome of the cabinet retreat in November, which featured performance bonds with key performance indicators, a Performance Delivery Unit, and a performance monitoring App.

What remains is a comprehensive plan to take a certain number of people out of poverty in a certain number of years. In designing such a programme, the starting point is knowing in which indicators of poverty people suffer the most deprivations and the number of people affected. In this regard, the Tinubu administration has something to learn from India, which took about 135 million people, about 10% of India’s population, out of poverty in the last five years alone!

Of course, India did not achieve this feat overnight. Since the 1950s, the central government has been working with regional governments, non-governmental organisations, major businesses, and local communities to initiate and implement several programmes to alleviate poverty. The programmes include subsiding food, housing, and other necessities; increasing access to loans; improving agricultural techniques and price supports; promoting education and family planning; and accelerating entrepreneurial and ICT training. These measures have gone a long way in reducing or eliminating famines, developing technological skills, and reducing illiteracy, malnutrition, and joblessness. The results have been steady reductions in poverty levels.

India’s case shows that poverty reduction or eradication is the result of sustainable programmes that are transferable from one government to the other, rather than of one-off poverty alleviation measures in moments of crises. Indeed, sustainability and self dependency should be promoted as integral parts of a successful poverty eradication policy.

The Indian case also shows that poverty eradication is not just a top-down project. It is a project that succeeds only when it is decentralised from conception through implementation. This brings to the fore the incessant calls for decentralisation.

It is high time a comprehensive policy was designed to eradicate poverty in Nigeria in order to derive the full impact of the new economic measures the Tinubu administration has developed.

November 22, 2023