The Nation Newspaper

Category: Wednesday

  • ASUU; Construction obstruction; 40 year 4th Mainland Bridge?

    ASUU salaries should be paid. Government continues to make the mistake that there are only a few Academic Staff Union of Universities, ASUU members when in fact there are millions affected by this decision of government and it will influence their actions at the polls. We are now told that government is withholding union dues. If government feels that it will make education better by hobbling or eliminating ASUU as a critic, the simple answer is it will not. A government with critics got education into the disgracefully large hole it is in. Imagine how poor education will be if government can provide only what it wants to provide and not what it should provide?

    We must request for more caution from our professionals in the media and academia because publicly at conferences and in the media when analysing the security and election prospects, they often give ideas, suggestions, scenarios about how robbers, kidnappers and terrorists and fraudulent politicians could circumvent security and election strategies. We must remember that agents and sponsors of these nefarious activities are also listening and can say ‘what a good idea. Let us use that method?’ We must make every effort not to feed criminals fresh ideas. 

    Fortunately, the year ended on a strong infrastructural note of nearly completed projects among which the 50-year late Second Niger Bridge, the 15-year delayed Lagos-Ibadan Expressway and the deliberately scuttled monorail abandoned by Buhari with a penalty of $184m back in 1983 and inaugurated by the current governor of Lagos State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu. Yes of course we say ‘Hurray’ and Thank you’ to all those who saw the vision slowly and painfully translate into reality from presidents, governors, ministers, commissioners, engineers down to diverse to ordinary workers shifting earth and controlling traffic. They all had a spectacular role. Many motorists have attested to the relief experienced from the 2nd Niger Bridge and already millions have had their travel time on the Lagos-Ibadan Road cut from 4-8 hours to 1.5hours sometimes door to door like it was in the beginning 1976. It is that instant difference in time wasted, energy expended but not constructively, extra fuel consumed, lost hours of your life irretrievable that make Nigerians really angry with governments. The construction company barriers have caused billions of lost hours, lost business. Are they laid without traffic flow knowledge or empathy or with nonchalance and perhaps a corporate bullying strategy perpetrated by collusion of some workers?

    The barriers came crashing back down again even though the initial promise was the thought to be January 15. Maybe we were wrong. Anyway, traffic is terrible again and lost and wasted hours accumulate in this new year at a terrific rate. When will it end? Maybe three months? We pray for an end to ‘Construction Obstruction’.

    There is celebration about the 4th Mainland Bridge. Hurray. Judging from its nearest relative, the 2nd Niger Bridge, it will, with the best will in the world and the traditional Nigerian political attitude to these things, take 40 years or more, perhaps even 50years for this dream to come true. This is not a curse or a prediction of doom, just deductions from the facts of Nigerian government construction and maintenance timelines over history.

    Remember that each succeeding government, even of the same political party as presently constituted and minister and commissioner and political party will seek to halt, re-examine and re-negotiate and revise the contract or parts of the contract always ‘in the interests of the citizens’ and always costing months and years adding unimagined and uncalculated delays to the timelines and overall contract time frame. Don’t say ‘no, not possible’ because it has happened consistently or repeatedly and with monotonous regularity in the past to a very single contract not completed within the time frame of a government’s lifecycle. So Nigerians and particularly this generation of drivers and commuters should not even begin to dream of practice driving or calculate the time saved when the bridge is open. Maybe in our children’s lifetime. Or perhaps in their own children’s lifetime.

    As long as we have greed-driven politics and not service-driven politics for that long will we have delay upon delay and cancellation of contract upon contract cancellation. But we must start on this project, long or short, hard or easy, deep or shallow, if we want a better tomorrow. Remember Lagos State citizens from all parts of the country lost out when the so-called Jakande Rail was cancelled by the Buhari regime December 1983-1985 at a penalty clause fee of approximately $184m out of the approximately $600m cost of contract.  It is only now almost 40 years later that a new railway is being inaugurated, strangely by the same man. If he had modified the contract to remove corruption, and not cancelled it, surely that railway would have been carrying its one billionth fellow Nigerian around Lagos by now, instead of zero. This demonstrates the unlimited harm contract cancellation and undue interference can cause and cost the citizenry. Of course, many contracts are purely evil, designed by specialists in fraudulent practices and corruption, with time frames and guidelines not to be fulfilled. Such contracts were never designed to be executed or completed and just conduits for the corrupt contractors, civil servants and the political class members to syphon money from the citizenry. May we be invisible to the enemy in 2023. Amen.  

  • The tricky business of political endorsements

    The much-heralded election year of 2023 is finally here. Fittingly, former President Olusegun Obasanjo got things off to a controversial start on the very first day with his endorsement of the Labour Party’s (LP) candidate, Peter Obi. The timing was symbolic and, no doubt, designed to generate as much mileage as possible.

    While jubilant supporters of the former Anambra State Governor have been celebrating like all their candidate needs to move into Aso Rock is Obasanjo’s seal of approval, the furious clap back from the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) may just have exaggerated the importance of the ex-president’s intervention. 

    Yesterday, another prominent elder statesman and Ijaw leader, Chief Edwin Clark, joined Obasanjo in endorsing Obi. He famously backed Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 and we know how that ended.

    In the coming days and weeks other individuals and groups who consider themselves important enough to influence voter choices at the coming election, would grandly inform us of who they are backing and urge us to do likewise. The beneficiaries may be APC’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu or PDP’s Atiku Abubakar, or even Obi or the New Nigerian People Party’s (NNPP) Rabiu Kwankwaso. 

    So how much store should we place by such endorsements? Would they significantly sway the electorate and determine the outcome of the polls? Would we look back and acknowledge that the contest was turned on its head the moment Obasanjo stepped in to tell us who to vote for?

    It would be dishonest to say they are valueless. Were that to be the case candidates and their campaigns wouldn’t be pursuing them. But let it be clear that nobody ever won an election on the strength of endorsements, but by number of votes cast and counted at the polling station.

    The strength of an endorsement lies in the established capacity of the one giving you backing to turn things in your favour. That is why those who made light of Obasanjo lining up behind Obi have a point. In the last two or three election cycles, everyone he supported failed woefully and those he opposed carried the day. 

    His previous attempts to sponsor some sort of third force option against the APC and PDP flopped spectacularly, leaving him in such desperate straits that he was  constrained to back an Atiku – whose character he had savaged on several occasions – in a vain bid to spite the incumbent Muhammadu Buhari in 2019. 

    In coming days and weeks expect more dramatic endorsements from the usual suspects: Northern Elders Forum (NEF), Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Afenifere, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, League of this, League of that and sundry associations of ex-this and ex-that. But we all know that support from these groups is only good for newspaper headlines. Which of our legion of office holders owe their election to these folks? In reality, the business end of this electoral cycle would be determined by governors, local power brokers and money bags. 

    Read Also: Ogun: Endorsements, emotional intelligence and oppositional defiant disorder

    Another reason endorsements are overrated is that they are a product of some individual’s or group’s assessment of who is the better or best candidate. These judgments are hardly ever objective, but rather a function of whether they agree with the position of the person on the ballot. On the strength of that test he or she is graded the ‘best.’

    But political observers around the world would tell you that elections are not always won by the ‘best’ candidate; no electorate anywhere would ever agree on who is ‘best.’ Let’s face it: elections are just beauty contests where one man’s ugly duckling is another’s queen. 

    In the Second Republic, Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the defunct Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) was often touted as the most cerebral and prepared of the presidential candidates. Such was his reputation that former Biafran leader, Emeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu, wrote in the condolence register at his death “the best president Nigeria never had.” In 1979 and 1983, the lawyer, newspaper publisher and celebrated author, squared off against the National Party of Nigeria’s (NPN), Alhaji Shehu Shagari – a modest school teacher – and lost each time. 

    In 2015, much of the campaign was devoted to mudslinging over the fact that Buhari’s educational accomplishments didn’t transcend the second school level and there was much ado over whether he actually had a certificate to support that attainment. He ran against Goodluck Jonathan who had a Ph.D and prevailed against a rival most would insist was better qualified. Why? He got the most votes!

    Ronald Reagan is rated today as one of the great United States’ presidents of the modern era. He came into his 1980 contest against the more intellectually endowed Jimmy Carter with a reputation as an ageing Hollywood actor notorious for nodding off in the middle of important meetings. But he was handsome and affable, and that appealed more to voters than the studiousness and seriousness of the Sunday School teacher Carter.

    Endorsements by influential individuals and groups may count for something where the contest is wide open. But for the first time in a long while we see a race in which many have made up their minds quite early. People have made, or are making their choices, not on the strength of a candidate’s manifesto or track record, but on such base factors as religion, ethnicity, age or just blind hate. This is an election blighted by fake news and contestants have been defined by how much falsehood has been dumped on them in social media. 

    In the end no endorsement will change the mind of a voter who has made up his mind to vote one way or the other come what may. So VIP or celebrity backing at this stage is just elite gimmickry that only helps with the optics, nothing fundamental.

    Every side would love to bag that endorsement. They create a sense of momentum where the endorsers have political weight. Otherwise, they only provide comfort for the candidate who can feel in the pit of his stomach that he’s headed for a good old shellacking. 

  • Wishing Ayo a speedy recovery

    Wishing Ayo a speedy recovery

    I was myself in hospital bed, when news reached me on December 22, 2023, about Professor Ayo Olukotun’s sudden illness. Were the message not from Professor Toyin Falola, I probably would have been somewhat skeptical. The message came on a network of international scholars to which it was the same Ayo, who subscribed me. I had read Ayo’s Friday column of December 16, 2023 over that weekend, and had responded to his phone call a few days earlier, without him knowing that I was battling the flu. “?`gbó?n, e? màn ní mo rán-an yín ní’??´ o. E? máa bá mí ?e nkankan”, he said on the phone. “At your service, Director” (referring to his position on the Oba Sikiru Adetona Institute of Governance at Ago Iwoye). We both laughed. He told me what to do, and I did it immediately.

    Ayo’s column in The Punch has been a major subject of conversation, especially on the same USA-Africa network of scholars for nearly a decade. Over the years, he has interrogated, among others, rampant corruption, declining educational outcome; inadequate hospitals and decrepit healthcare facilities; decaying infrastructure; and, above all, repeated governance and policy failures. During his tenure as Endowed Chair of Governance at Ago Iwoye, Ayo gave an annual lecture in which he explored various aspects of governance. His ultimate goal is to explore the possibilities of change in the orientation of Nigerian leaders in order not only to improve the fortunes of the citizens but also to save the country from possible collapse.

    About 10 years ago or so, I invited Ayo to a soul-searching conversation over our columns. I was also writing the Tuesday column for the same newspaper at the time. I pointed out that I did not like the they-are-all-failures approach of many columnists in their attempt to hold government accountable. That approach has developed the vocabulary of lamentation and condemnation, leaving little or no room for redemption, except, perhaps in some editorials.

    I suggested that, if our columns were really to have the desired impact, we should not only criticise the government, we should also offer useful suggestions on the way forward. It was in reaction to the overarching negative stance of many a newspaper column that I decided to promote or denounce certain politicians on certain projects as well as endorse others for election or reelection. I burned my fingers with some, but feel validated by the majority. The amúnidárò among them made no progress, while the awúnilori continued to make progress.

    This brings me back to Ayo’s latest column, “2023: Returning power to sub-national governments” (The Punch, Friday, December 16, 2023), in which he criticised the vertical geography of power, characterised by what he aptly terms a “feeding bottle” federalism in which the states approach the centre with “begging bowls”. Even states have also applied the same vertical geography of power to local governments. Incidentally, President Muhammadu Buhari recently criticised states for stifling the development of local governments, without seeing the hypocrisy in such a criticism: The centre, which he controls, has been doing the same thing to the states.

    This is the thrust of Ayo’s latest column. He not only decried the over-centralization of power in the centre, he also called for the decentralization of power, as the column’s title suggests, arguing that that 2023 presidential candidates, voters, and non-governmental organizations should prioritize the return of power to sub-national governments.

    Read Also: NEDC begins Northeast education recovery programme with 18 mega schools

    However, I would have loved to point out to Ayo that there are issues to confront before his suggestion could be implemented. After all, the call for decentralization of power and resource allocation has been in public debate since the inception of the present Republic. At least two major national conferences have been held, each recommending decentralization among other restructuring objectives. None of the recommendations has been implemented in any significant way. Even attempts at reviewing the Constitution have been haphazard at best.

    The critical question then is why has decentralization not happened? Two answers to start with: One, the lopsidedness in the creation of states and local governments, which gives undue advantage to a certain section of the country, provides that part of the country with numerical advantage in the National Assembly. That section of the country has consistently opposed decentralization, with many of its leaders mischievously confusing restructuring with disintegration. Any wonder, then, that constitutional review has not gained much traction?

    Second, the opposers of restructuring and decentralization are often rent seekers, for whom the central government is business and daily bread. They are found in various sectors, for example, around government institutions, in the money market as Bureau de Change Chiefs, and in the oil sector as oil merchants in support of fuel subsidy. They are also opposed to state police, despite the ravaging activities of insurgents, bandits, and kidnappers in their native neighbourhoods.

    There is an interesting irony about the centrist orientation of Nigerian leaders. Virtually every major activity in the country is performed bottom-up. Schools are located in local governments and states, despite an overarching Federal Ministry of Education. Offenses are committed at local levels, which neither the Inspector General nor even State Commissioners nof Police could prevent. Only local police posts, working in concert with other posts, can prevent and fish out offenders. There is a Federal Ministry of Agriculture with a huge budget, but the Federal Government has no land for agriculture. Food is grown and harvested in local communities. Elections, including presidential ones, are conducted at polling units and collated at ward, local government, and state levels, despite the centralising power of INEC.

    That’s why the next President must start with rigorous public education about the value of localism, which decentralization facilitates. Moreover, as my grandmother used to say, if the head portion of the yam is too hard to cut, go to the bottom part, which is usually softer, and then cut it toward the head.

    Only one Presidential candidate so far has indicated understanding of my grandmother’s advice. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, has indicated an approach that would whittle the power of rent seekers in some way: Unify the exchange market and remove fuel subsidy. That done, he can then move on to implementing his policy on “Federalism and Decentralisation of Power” (Renewed Hope 2023, pages 68-69).

    It is for this kind of analysis and debate that we fervently want Ayo back soon to his column, in addition to his other scholarly activities, his social engagements, and, above all, his friendship. Ayo, we are waiting for you.

  • PSC, Police Internal Affairs? Prevention not explanation

    PSC, Police Internal Affairs? Prevention not explanation

    Wishing you and Nigeria a Happy New Year 2023; ‘Invisible to the Enemy’. No doubt we have witnessed many downs and a few ups in 2022. Everyone will have different 2022 stories, good and bad.

    Is the Police Service Commission a toothless bulldog? Does it to advise and monitor police anti-shooting strategies? The Christmas Day shooting of a loved, lawyer Bolanle Raheem, carrying twins by ASP Drambi Vandi, followed the shooting of Gafaru Buraimoh by an unknown officer in the same division. They are dead and Nigerian Bar Association, NBA, is demanding N5b for ‘unlawful killing’.

    One killing may be an accidental tragedy but still unforgivable, two is arrant impunity by him and his superiors who failed to supervise him though sworn to protect the citizenry from harm even by their own officers. This is inadequate implementation of the lessons claimed to have been learnt and implemented from past police inquiries into similar murders. Or is it resistance to change of the rank and file to the efforts of the police high command to disseminate lessons from post-EndSARS Enquiry and hundreds of other protests at killings?

    We are tired of police talking but not taking out police bad eggs before they killed unarmed women. Roadside checkpoint corruption is back to pre-ENDSARS levels. Ditto for LASTMA, FRSC, Customs who are not spotless. Is there anything like LASTMA Internal Affairs, FRSC Internal Affairs, Customs Internal Affairs, Police Internal Affairs to daily police the police, customs and LASTMA? Their less-than-sparkling reputation in society should alert government to the need for a clean-up and better monitoring of their agency  members. The Police Authority even at station and traffic control level must be seen to weed out drunk-prone, belligerent, tough, bullying unstable male and female characters, and those with unprovoked violent, uncontrollable, murderous talk or streaks of mental instability incompatible with holding a gun. We have all met fine police and bad police and I have been at the wrong end of a drunk-driven teargas gun at an isolated expressway checkpoint. We want prevention of murder not explanation!

    Terrorists are not the citizens’ only problem, even our ‘friend the police’ can become the shooting enemy. On that same Christmas Day, I came onto the main road at 8.30am on my way to Church to find an FRSC team operating opposite Foodco, hand raised, halting three happy church-bound family members’ cars for interrogation. We pray not also for extortion. While in Lagos in December, I witnessed classic entrapment by a tag team of LASTMA team in VI, Lagos.  One official blocked the car while the other rushed to get into the car and direct it to the eatery park for negotiations. Why can LASTMA not monitor its own officials and prevent these daily street crimes by a few of their number? Must citizens mount monitoring operations? Why must we accept this corruption as permanent?  2023 should be year of anti-corruption self-assessment of security and uniformed outfits. Until police hierarchy tighten  control on  lower ranks and take responsibility for the own officers and men under them, we citizens will remain the victims and line up on ‘Road Death Row’ and ask each other ‘Who is next?’          

    When we do things, we do not know the outcome or effect. There is cause and consequence for every action. The outrageous N100m fees for APC presidential aspirants helped rubbish the naira value and galvanised common kidnappers to index-link victims to that N100million with deaths for non-compliance. Giving okada to untrained, unrestrained youth created a traffic and other crime wave, facilitated nationwide terrorist attacks and a hospital medical ‘Okada Epidemic’ of deaths and amputation. 

    The best things that have happened are the new currency initiative and the limits on cash transactions deposits and withdrawals which have mostly crippled large-scale illegality overnight. The revised limits are cash withdrawals of N500,000 for individuals and N5m for businesses. The professional criminal world in and out of politics is forced to alter its corrupt practices business and election plans and may need to pay millions of middlemen to help them launder their billions into the banking system. Banks must report more suspicious transactions. With so many staff ‘japa-ing’ i.e. relocating abroad, making the banking sector honest will be an uphill task especially when some of the banks ‘best’ customers may be crooked with kickbacks, kick-forwards, over-invoicing, under-invoicing, bribery, uncompleted contracts and election fraud plans. The honest poor do not need six months to bank their money. Those who have naira warehoused in buildings, in cartons and sacks under their beds and in cellophane wrapping in holes in the ground may need six months. Is the six months merely a calculated attempt by NASS to destroy the currency change project by using the citizens as cover?

    The CBN’s intention is not a mere cosmetic change but a cunning anti-corruption measure against large scale election and business corruption. Are the citizens walking, pushing their sacks of money across Nigeria on foot? No, just to a bank within their state, a two-week walk at most. A six-month window will destroy the currency project cunningly designed by CBN to stop guns/kidnappers with financial roadblocks like Al Capone was stopped for tax evasion, not murder. It is working. Kidnappers demanding N100m have stopped. Secondly there is political panic because election political corruption and other corruption will be strangled. Not ‘Mission Impossible’ after all!

  • 2022: Not just an ordinary year

    2022: Not just an ordinary year

    For more than a decade, one of the defining images of December in Nigeria has been long queues of vehicles and people camped in petrol stations across the country, in desperate search for subsidised fuel. Some years under President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration were an exception as they were largely free of the annual ritual.

    But this year, queues which popped up in major metropolis intermittently, came back with a vengeance at year end and, despite the best efforts of government and its agencies, remain an ugly blight on festivities and travel plans for many across the land. 

    It could have been worse but for the fact the regulators have turned a blind eye to allow as many marketers as can get away with it to sell at rates as high as N250 and N300 per liter if it made economic sense. That limited the snaking queues to Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and outlets of other major marketers that could still afford to sell at the controlled rates.

    The temptation therefore would be to say that this year, the more things changed the more they’ve remained the same. After all, one of the proud boasts of officials of the administration is that for most of the Buhari years the December petrol scarcity carnival has largely been absent. 

    The fact that despite the government’s best efforts the problem has resurfaced in the dying days of its tenure confirms that the fundamental causes haven’t been addressed. The rapid collapse of the naira to the dollar simply meant that the crisis was unavoidable because the government for reasons of stability in the polity couldn’t afford to allow such a strategic commodity to be sold at prices that truly reflected economic reality, when the people’s earnings were not adjusted accordingly.

    Previous attempts at ending subsidies bleeding the country dry have often been resisted by labour unions and were usually abandoned on the back of street riots. It would be politically inexpedient to expect the administration to pull the plug knowing the price it would pay with a crucial election just two months away. So, it had to do the next best thing which is kick the troublous can further down the road. 

    It may not have solved the problem, but one thing the administration has done is prepare people psychologically for the inevitable removal of what has become an unsustainable subsidy burden. In many parts of the country motorists have bought fuel at rates far north of the official price – except in major cities like Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt. Today, many residents in those places would gladly pay whatever it takes to fill their tanks rather than spend hours and days at the station.

    So far, the leading presidential candidates have made comments suggesting their commitment to doing something drastic about the problem. None more so than so than All Progressives Congress (APC) flagbearer, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who while acknowledging there would be resistance, has vowed to end the subsidy regime. What’s going on presently gives him a soft landing if eventually it becomes his lot to take that tough decision.

    This year has also been special as it marked the beginning of the transition process – one trailed by all manner of conspiracy theories. It was the year that pundits assured would produce gloom and doom, instead it delivered a damp squib. The heavens didn’t fall after all. We were only served the usual entertaining twists and turns – not political Armageddon.

    Beyond the ongoing fixation with who would eventually prevail in the presidential race and other high profile contests, what has played out in the parties this year would have profound transformative effect on Nigerian politics going forward. 

    This was the year when conventional wisdom was turned on its head and a couple of sacred cows slaughtered to the mildest of protests. Take for instance zoning. Harking back to the Second Republic, the concepts of regional balancing and power rotation had become unquestioned articles of faith in Nigerian politics.

    That was why long before the parties set about choosing their candidates, Southern governors across party lines, met in Asaba, Delta State, and agreed a communique demanding that the next president come from the South after the incumbent – a Northerner – would have held office for eight years. They reaffirmed that commitment at a subsequent conclave in Lagos.

    But surprise, surprise, some of those same governors in the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) quickly repudiated that agreement to support the emergence of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar – another Northerner – as the party’s candidate. The host of that landmark Southern governors summit, Delta State Governor, Ifeanyi Okowa, joyfully joined the ticket as running mate. The consequence of that fundamental u-turn is the long-running intra-party crisis that produced the G5 governors faction.

    As of today, Atiku is rated by most credible commentators as one of the two leading contenders for the presidency given the national spread of his party’s structures. The upshot if he were to win in February 2023 would be the untimely burial of power rotation as a concept in Nigerian politics. It is not hard to predict that Northern control of power for a further four or eight years would be deeply divisive – even if it doesn’t bring an end to the federation as we know it. 

    Across the divide, APC’s Tinubu took the daring decision of picking someone of same faith as himself – former Borno State Governor, Kashim Shettima, as running mate. It was a move with historical parallels as the late Chief M. K. O. Abiola, running on the platform of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP) thirty years ago, did the same by picking Babagana Kingibe. The supposedly taboo ticket would go on to win a famous victory.

    Three decades later, arguing that the same formula was his best path to victory, Tinubu has taken a similar gamble. If he prevails in February, something fundamental would have have changed in Nigerian politics. It’s bad enough that we still have to worry about region and ethnicity, but sectarian meddling in the process would hopefully recede. This is the year when all of that happened; and it’s one we would never forget. 

    That said, I wish you dear, esteemed readers and all of Nigeria, the best for the New Year – hoping it brings the new dawn we all truly desire.

  • How to renew hope in Nigeria – 2

    How to renew hope in Nigeria – 2

    The Economy. In this section on the economy (Renewed Hope 2023, pages 11-25), four major premises for the proposed reforms are highlighted: (1) that the structural model upon which our national economy has always been based “needs major reform”, because it always has been out of alignment with the nation’s economic realities; (2) that, “if our nation is to live up to its promise, our youth need to be given a fairer deal than this”; (3) that it is necessary to adjust the allocation of revenue between federal and state governments in order to give states greater flexibility to foster grassroots development; and (4) that, while being fiscally active, government must be very prudent, because “public money is also a storehouse of public values and public trust”.

    The proposed economic reforms call for radically new policies on fiscal and monetary matters; industrial plan; and housing development. There are also some modifications in other sectors, such as the agriculture and power sectors, which have a direct impact on the economic policies. The following brief discussion is limited to fiscal and monetary policies.

    FISCAL POLICY. Tinubu/Shettima argue that basing the nation’s budget and fiscal policies on the dollar value of projected oil revenue not only artificially restricts the government’s fiscal latitude, it also unduly attracts attention towards a single source of revenue to the detriment of others, such as agriculture, cultural production, and the emerging service economy. A more efficient fiscal methodology is proposed in which budgeting will be based on the projected level of government spending as this optimizes growth and jobs without hyping inflation to unacceptable levels.

    In order to achieve this growth-based budgeting, (1) a clear and mandatory inflationary ceiling on spending must be established and (2) the link must be broken between Naira expenditure and dollar inflows into the economy. In the meantime, however, the limits on government spending must be suspended, like the European Union and the United States have done, to accommodate the protracted global economic turmoil, aggravated by the pandemic, the Russian war in Ukraine, and domestic challenges in insecurity, unemployment, and the youth population bulge.

    Taking advantage of the fiscal latitude provided by the budgetary reforms, a national infrastructure campaign will be launched, to which millions of unemployed Nigerians will be drafted to modernize national infrastructure. This would allow for (1) elaborate road construction to make transportation faster, cheaper, and safer; (2) national water supply scheme, via states and local governments, to bring portable water within reach-this will also involve reticulation of major dams and the construction of small-scale irrigation and water catchment system in rural areas; (3) completion of the Green Wall of the North, using environmentally viable flora, to mitigate deforestation and thus lessen economic migration and resultant social dislocation; and (4) involvement of Public Private Partnerships to attract more private sector investment in needed infrastructure projects.

    Another aspect of the new fiscal policy is import substitution to curb reliance on imported goods. A two-prong approach will be employed. On the one hand, importation of non-essential products will be discouraged through policy measures, such as higher tariffs and processing fees and luxury taxes. On the other hand, international brands will be incentivized with tax credits and rebates to establish manufacturing plants in Nigeria for domestic and international consumption. Furthermore, the African Continental Free Trade Agreement will be exploited to boost domestic manufacturing and production.

    The proposed tax reforms will not burden citizens with new taxes during times of economic weakness. However, effective tax policies and appropriate technology will be deployed to review the corporate tax system. The overall goal shall be to create a progressive tax regime, plug harmful loopholes, and enhance the efficiency of tax collection.

    The fight against corruption will continue, with necessary modifications. The areas of focus shall include (1) civil service reform, to reduce bureaucracy, streamline agencies, and decrease inefficiency and waste; (2) capping fiscal expenditures on government buildings, salaries, and compensation packages; (3) weeding out ghost workers and ghost projects; and (4) applying appropriate sanctions, where necessary. At the same time, to boost morale, bona fide hardworking civil servants shall be commended and rewarded from time to time, while others shall be incentivized to optimize their stewardship.

    Finally, on fiscal policy, the nation’s Internally Generated Revenue shall be boosted by tapping into appropriate skills and expertise, by reducing leakages in the financial system, and by attracting private sector initiatives.

    MONETARY POLICY. If fiscal policy, which has multiple channels of transmission, is to spend public money in a way that maximizes employment of people and resources, and sometimes cater directly for a specific segment of the population, then monetary policy, whose channels are limited to banks and financial institutions, must buttress the overall goal of fiscal policy. Accordingly, monetary policy must focus on the exchange rate, interest rate, and price levels in order to appropriately support the fiscal policy.

    For maximum benefit, a nation’s monetary policy must be internally generated and based on more stable currency founded on a real vibrant and productive economy. A stable exchange rate regime is critical to the proposed economic policy, whose goal is to optimally grow an economy driven by agricultural, industrial, infrastructural, and technological expansion.

    Inflation targeting and management must ensure equilibrium between fiscal and monetary policies. The current inflation surge in the country is a global trend, caused by known production, distribution, and supply disruptions. In our case, it has been worsened by imposing higher interest rates and tighter money supply measures on an already depressed economy. A better solution is to find ways of increasing production and supply. In the final analysis, inflation must be targeted and effectively managed, while the right mix of fiscal and monetary tools must be deployed in order to grow the economy.

    The measures to be taken to protect our exchange rate and preserve foreign currency reserves include; (1) limiting exposure to large debt obligations denominated in foreign currency: (2) limiting necessary foreign currency debt obligations to projects that generate cash flows from which the debt can be repaid; and (3) avoiding multiple exchange rates, which cause arbitrage, currency speculation, and financial dislocation; and (4) optimizing the exchange rate regime toward full harmonization.

    Tinubu has been more specific on what he wants to do. Hear him at the business dialogue, organized by Business Forward, in Lagos on December 21, 222: “I will eliminate multiple FX exchange rate regimes when I become President in 2023”. Within hours, economic and financial experts began to hail his plan for a unified exchange rate regime.

    Of the presidential candidates for 2023, no pair is better suited to propose and implement such reforms than a combination of a Corporate Accounts Executive and a Bank Executive, each of whom has been a Senator of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and a State Governor for eight years, namely, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and his running mate, Kashim Shettima, of the All Progressives Congress.

  • ASUU; Help failing students; face early learning

    ASUU; Help failing students; face early learning

    ASUU salaries should be paid. 

    President Buhari and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) must persevere with the change in the currency, no matter what real and concocted allegations or campaigns of calumny or a rent-a crowd ‘storming’ National Assembly (NASS) are thrown at Emefiele, to derail him. Daily huge sums are found in holes in the ground. Yes, the initial deposit/withdrawal limits were very restrictive and good. CBN has relaxed them under pressure. The new limits must be monitored closely to prevent fraud and political round-tripping to keep them minimal compared to levels before the currency change.

    All true Nigerians will applaud and support the CBN governor when they see a free, cheaper and fair election and a recovery in the naira. But this does not exonerate the president from the numerous charges of ethnic domination etcetera against him and his government.

    Nigeria must not ignore and thus abandon poorly performing students or they will fall into the abyss.  Many great professionals had weak school report cards. They are late bloomers. Also many very brilliant youngsters fizzle out in later in the university.  Every brain is different with parts totally beyond the control of the student owner. Nobody can read and write and do maths at birth. Early learning is the key to the human existence. Everyone needs and gets lessons from parents, family, friends and teachers.

    In the West, education starts very young. Nursery rhymes, some bad, are sung to babies.  Almost every child seen is ‘SELF-LEARNING’ by using the parent’s phone filled with an explorable world of games, songs, words, maths and puzzles. Already children know their parents’ phone better than the owner. Of course, too much screen-time means poor communication skills and requires balance with books, conversations, comics and physical games. Many children with no parental phone support lag behind in learning and even the finger/thumb reflexes. The real education leveller is schoolwork and it is well known that early learning is a recognised advantage leading to double-promotion.

    Yet in Nigeria we neglect early learning. Early learning requires inspiring, inviting, multiple methodology and ‘I-want-to-go-to-school-Mummy’ classroom content. Does any government provide that for their six-year-old let alone for their three and four and five year olds? Do we even have the trained teachers for solid systematic early learning?

    Yes, we have some ‘demonstration’ schools. But what about the remaining millions of 4-6 year-olds? Sadly, here those charged with early learning are ill-equipped and lacking in exploratory learning. They are often poorly educated nannies, who are wonderful individuals but had their own education truncated. What is their mind-set coming to care for and teach a child? In advanced countries, the kindergarten content is research-driven and early learning is taught by specialist graduates and even PhDs. Sadly, the governments at federal and state and LGAs have neglected education beyond imagination. Meanwhile at a stage there was N1b SUBEB funds un-accessed. A disgraceful shame. Are our children and our teachers happy in their school environment? Even when parents want to help, some governments deny them the opportunity for political reasons saying they are giving free education. No school on earth except in Nigeria dares reject a free gift from parents. It is a rubbish and wrong political policy.      

    In 1994 I conceived an Education NGO – Educare Trust to help in the fight for the brains of the youth threatened by military governments, a negligence that led to today’s ASUU strike. Professor Ayo Banjo advised that we focus on primary and secondary schools to quickly improve the input into universities.

    Even in primary and secondary schools, teachers and teacher associations must quickly accept their responsibility in students’ success and failure. ‘A GOOD TEACHER IN TIME SAVES NINE EXTRA TEACHERS’ and saves money and time for remedial lessons or lectures. Adequate teacher feedback, teacher-teacher meetings on poorly performing and potential failures, teacher-parent meetings and value-added monitoring to remove ‘teacher bullying’ or ‘teacher abandonment’  hindering the student. In addition, teacher’s unpreparedness, poor knowledge, poor productivity due to un-motivating environment including ‘NO USEABLE TOILET’ and remuneration, the students suffer. Teachers need to be monitored for bad eggs and tasked to improve poor students often abandoned when all they require is extra lessons, which may not be provided because the poor cannot pay. Good teachers need rewarding. Many families, even struggling ones, provide extra lessons from even kindergarten.

    Not enough is done to prevent children failing and falling through the education net. It is no use getting the estimated 10m Out-of-School children into ‘CHILD UNFRIENDLY SCHOOLS DESIGNED TO FAIL’; better to provide adequate facilities to get the education supposed to be offered. So, the children will be unmotivated, unfulfilled, under encouraged and will just fall out of education again and be seen again on the street. The politicians all like good cars, good this and that. Let them count how many good school environment schools there are.

    As a new year 2023 approaches, there are many predictions and prophesies, not all good, in fact many are doomsday predictions. CORRUPTION IS THE MASTERKEY TO NIGERIA’S DESTRUCTION. Corruption involves Money, Mind, Manifesto, Manipulation [& Abuse of Federal Character].  But we have responsibility for our children and grandchildren to hand over a good sustainable country.  What can we do? WE MUST URGENTLY STOP PERSONAL AND PROFESSIONAL, PUBLIC AND PRIVATE CORRUPTION, INJUSTICE, VIOLENCE and GREED.

    HAPPY NEW YEAR 2023. Work and pray we survive 2023! MAY WE BE INVISIBLE TO THE ENEMY.      

  • How to renew hope in Nigeria

    How to renew hope in Nigeria

    It is no exaggeration that Nigeria is bleeding. Every aspect of national life is crying for attention. In particular, national security has been under attack for years by terrorists, bandits, kidnappers, and so-called unknown gunmen. The threat they pose to other aspects of national life is why presidential candidates have been paying attention to national security in their campaigns.

    In their outline of how they hope to renew hope in Nigeria, the Presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and his running mate, Kashim Shettima, covered every aspect of national life in an illustrated 80-page festival of ideas. In this first of a serial review of selected aspects of their manifesto, I focus on their attempt to enhance national security for at least two reasons: First, insecurity is very high on the people’s agenda right now, partly because of the fear it has created in people over the past few years and partly because it may also disrupt the 2023 elections barely two months away. Second, how to tackle insecurity is the number one item on the Tinubu/Shettima agenda (see Renewed Hope 2023, pages 5-10).

    Their approach to national security is based on three premises: One, that the fundamental responsibility of government is the protection of the lives and property of its citizens; two, that national security is the bedrock of a democratic and prosperous society; and three, that a proactive and intelligence driven security approach is needed to address the nation’s security threats. As much as possible, it should be prevention rather than cure.

    Building on these premises, their approach to national security emphasizes (a) sweeping reforms of security forces across the board, that is, military, police, paramilitary, and intelligence personnel; (b) special attention to be paid to the welfare of security forces; (c) integration and expansion of existing database; (d) acquisition and deployment of state-of-the-art technologies of warfare, including communication and intelligence gathering technologies; and (e) intensification of international collaboration.

    The reforms will involve massive recruitment, training, reorientation, and equipment upgrade (discussed in more detail below). The starting point is recruitment into the armed forces and the police. Some comparative data are necessary in order to appreciate the depth of personnel deficits in these security forces. According to the International Institute of Strategic Studies, the total number of Nigeria’s armed and paramilitary personnel is under 250,000, whereas Brazil, with comparable population, boasts over 2 million. Even small Cuba, with a population of just over 11 million, has over 1 million military and paramilitary personnel. Granting that Cuba is a communist state, that is still a huge number for a small population. Similarly, with only about 350,000 personnel, the Nigeria Police Force is relatively short-staffed.

    It is not just a question of increased personnel numbers. Their salaries will be reviewed upward and special to their welfare concerns. In addition to addressing the concerns of frontline security personnel, “a special programme, providing housing, scholarships, stipends, and health insurance for the families of our fallen heroes will be created”.

    Furthermore, more attention will be paid to the structure and practices of the security forces. For example, with regard to the Armed Forces, anti-terrorist battalions with special forces units will be created with the sole mission of employing necessary strategic and tactical initiative to take out terrorists, kidnappers, and bandits. Police reform will include freeing police personnel from extraneous duties, such as VIP security and guard duties. Moreover, the provision of security for public buildings and other critical assets will be transferred to the Nigeria Security and Civil Defense Corps.

    The identity database is critical to national security as it provides the central tool for identifying who is who. In the United States, for example, a citizen’s Social Security Number is assigned from birth or from school or workplace or on naturalization and becomes a unique identifier of each citizen. The multiple identification numbers for each citizen in Nigeria (BVN, NIN, SIM Number, and so on) should eventually coalesce into one-the NIN. Tinubu/Shettima will build on current efforts of the Buhari administration to achieve full integration and expansion of the identity database.

    Technology is central to the reforms of the national security apparatus. In addition to upgrading appropriate weapons systems and promoting local production of basic and essential military hardware and equipment, special attention will be paid to procuring up-to-date aerial surveillance equipment, such as drones, to proactively identify actual or potential attacks on critical national infrastructure, such as oil pipelines, power stations, airports, and rail transportation network. Governor Nasir el-Rufai’s answer to the question about attacks on oil pipelines at Chatham House earlier in the month was based on this section of Renewed Hope 2023.

    In order to better secure borders, forests, and local communities, appropriate security agents will be refined and deployed as necessary, be they Customs Officers for borders, Forest Guards for forests, or local police and vigilante for local communities. As necessary, the Ministry of Interior, the National Assembly, State and Local Governments, and Local Communities will be consulted in developing appropriate measures.

    Finally, the Tinubu/Shettima government seeks to prioritize collaborations with key neighbours, international partners and allies, and appropriate World bodies in order to ensure the safety of Nigerians at home and abroad. In this regard, participation in the operations of the Multinational Joint Task Force will be accelerated.

    Although attention is paid to the role of local communities and “locally-based law enforcement institutions”, there is no direct reference to the role of traditional rulers and other local leaders. Nor is there any reference to religious leaders in the entire section on national security. Yet, these are the first points of contact for politicians in every local community throughout the country. Besides, these leaders have suffered from attacks by terrorists, kidnappers, and bandits. Their role should be explicitly courted in the implementation of the new security measures.

    Another area to be explored in the implementation is the gathering, sharing, and utilization of intelligence. To be sure, this is not a matter for public discussion but readers should at least know that there are plans to coordinate and use intelligence appropriately in order to avert the kind of lapses experienced in the recent attack on Kuje prison.

  • ASUU; Buhari@80; CBN: Cashless vs Cash crunch

    ASUU salaries should be paid.

    Eighty-not-out is a celebration especially in Nigeria where life-expectancy for men is 56 and sadly lower for women. Our President Muhammadu Buhari is 80. Amidst our current miserable circumstances – financially and security- in particular, some related to, and some independent of his government’s decisions and indecisions, we should wish President Buhari a very HBDTYOU@80. The age 80 is no mean age in Nigeria especially for an officer although I am strangely surprised at the longevity granted our past military leaders who by the nature of their work witnessed the truncation of many other lives including the backdated execution of three drug smugglers and numerous counter coup-plotters and protesting innocents.

    Perhaps past heads of state (PHOS) longevity it is an occupational bonus or hazard?  President Buhari will be re-joining PHOS soon and we wish him luck while we join too many millions facing a very miserable merry Christmas, this Sunday and a harrowing New Year’s Day next Sunday while merely seeking the next salary in millions of businesses threatened with or already closed. Or for many they merely are seeking the next meal for those with no job or in Internally Displaced Persons camps.  Obviously Head of State and Past Head of State are occupations with no hazard now that coups are unfashionable even among traditional international sponsors and the African Union, AU.

    Of course there have been coups especially recently in West Africa but they were frowned on and Nigeria has been ‘free’ but under milito-political reign since 1999, meaning that 23 year olds have never lived under a military regime and could be misled by glamour and ignorance. Those who remember the dreaded but sometimes mistakenly welcomed ‘martial music at dawn’ followed by ‘I ……..’  want no return to those days. Some @23year old now imagine that military take-over will clean out the political Augean Stable of corruption as they may mistakenly think that even the military is better in power than the corrupted politics of today.

    Repeated history has proved them wrong. Perhaps in the military there are not enough pure hearts to run a good and just government in the interests of the citizens and country, rather than only servicing ethnic cabals dedicated to controlling others and emptying the treasury. This knowledge that a coup will not be welcome seems to have emboldened those corrupt politicians to arrogantly think they are invincible, immovable, uninvestigable and above even their own laws and it is well known that the massive oil corruption needs the military and other security forces’ connivance to succeed in stealing the lifeblood of Nigeria. They act as if they have been given ‘Powers of Corruption’.

    Some think that because they avoid the EFCC and ICPC, that they are upright in perception if not in fact. However if their actions break every Federal Character law by reserving or allowing your watch to be used to subject entire corporate or Ministries, Agencies, Departments leadership to one ethnic group, that is the worst expression of corruption because the actions of such imposed leaderships can only be severely financially detrimental to country and citizens under the power and greed of that single ethnic group. But we all know there is more than enough to go round everybody in Nigeria as God designed. Why interfere wrongly with God’s good plan for Nigeria and Nigerians when we could all be proud together? So why hoard Nigeria’s oil and resources and incomes in 2022 when we should be sharing posts, positions and profits equally- a wonderful 80th Birthday present from the celebrant@80 to Nigeria.

    We must congratulate Minister Babatunde Fashola for delivering to the citizens and country and to his boss a birthday present of the huge magnitude of the 50 year late 2nd Niger Bridge, the greatest tribute to this Buhari regime achieved against a very negative NASS which delayed delivery of the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway finishing now in 2023 when its selfish NASS members diverted N135b from the N150b allocated in 2019/20 by the government to largely suspect Constituency Projects. This single savage act of the ‘powerful individual group of politicians over the collective’ selfishness caused the current catastrophic billion hour traffic jam losses temporarily relieved by Julius Berger lifting the malicious construction barriers.

    I wonder if ASUU will send President Buhari@80 him a note even as some members transited to 50, 60, 70 years in near penury without salary for eight months?

    Is CBN planning a CASHLESS or a CASHCRUNCH society? It is good we have the new currency introduction and the principle of limiting deposits and withdrawals for individuals and companies to curb the burgeoning threats to our democracy and economy posed by political and oil and cash bribery corruption and hostage taking. But perhaps more research and consultation will produce optimum figures that will still combat fraud and the uses of cash for voting and in other areas of politics. The POS employment matter remains thorny but Nigeria has several layers of workers not found in other countries. Black market aboki, parking touts, security outfits at every social function, vigilantes, POS support stalls. Any change will be exploited by politicians and business and bribers. The CBN must negotiate a line between destroying the minefield of corruption while not damaging the new economy by collapsing vendors, SMEs and even big business requiring cash calls.

    MEXAHNIA=MERRY XMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR and  ‘X’ really does mean CHRIST = chi in Greek -Google pls.

  • The chatter about Chatham House

    The chatter about Chatham House

    On Monday, December 5, 2022, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, was at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, otherwise known as Chatham House, to speak on security, economic reform, and foreign policy within the context of the 2023 general elections. The event provided him with the opportunity to espouse his agenda as outlined in his manifesto, themed Renewed Hope 2023. This is a document he had worked on with members of his team, who were there with him at Chatham House.

    He had hardly stepped out of the venue before critics jumped at him, starting with paid protesters waiting outside. Their protest has nothing to do with the content of his speech or whatever transpired in Chatham House. It was a predetermined opposition. In no time, the pages of newspapers, the airwaves, and social media platforms began to circulate disparaging comments about the event. For some critics, style (the way questions were answered) dwarfed content (the answers provided to questions). For others, the criticism was familiar—his age, identity, health, education, and so on. Yet others complained about the tempo of his speech. Well, I have known Tinubu for about 40 years; he has never been a fast talker.

    They said Tinubu said nothing at Chatham House. That he was packaged by his handlers. That he should not have delegated authority to members of his team in answering questions posed after his speech. To these pathological critics, such delegation speaks to his incapacity and not to his philosophy of team work. “It’s a joke”, screamed one TV  host, known for his persistent criticism of the APC candidate. As far as these critics are concerned, nothing of value came out of Chatham House on December 5.

    But there is substantial evidence, in text and in video, that Tinubu said a lot at Chatham House. First, he spoke for about 25 minutes, followed by questions and answers for the next 35 minutes or so. Typically, a Chatham House event runs for about one hour. Like most Chatham House presentations, it was a festival of ideas on a range of issues about the 2023 presidential election and the challenges for the next President.

    Deploying the latest technology in tele-prompting, which Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo has been using to great effect, Asiwaju stood by the lectern for at least 25 minutes and went through an array of issues of significance to Nigeria; its four adjoining neighbours; West Africa; Africa; and the world at large.

    He began by highlighting the significance of the 2023 election for democratic consolidation, following 25 years of unbroken democracy in Nigeria. Besides, the effective conduct of the election is critical to the legitimacy of the next President and the acceptance of his government. This is especially the case because so much is expected of the ensuing government in reviving the economy, securing lives and property, generating employment, and providing steady energy and other critical infrastructure. He also emphasized the need for the election to be a beacon of hope for democracy in Africa, especially in the Western and Central Africa subregions, where democracy has been subverted recently in a number of countries.

    He went on to highlight the implications of insecurity for economic development, food sufficiency, and trans-border challenges. He reiterated his commitment to tackling the problem head on, by recalibrating domestic policy to privilege security and ensuring that foreign policy is in alignment with domestic policy. Tinubu also reiterated commitment to ECOWAS and Africa Union agenda.

    Read Also: Tinubu: The message from Chatham House

    This is important because his proposed economic model, which privileges private sector participation, cannot thrive in an insecure environment. Yet the private sector is critical to the production of goods and services and the generation of employment. His government would advance on ongoing infrastructural projects and further provide the enabling environment for a thriving private sector.

    Similarly, the enabling environment needs to be provided for agricultural production beyond security. Necessary infrastructure—energy, roads, water, storage facilities—and loans to farmers are critical to the agriculture value chain.

    Given the critical role of regular and steady energy to the production of goods and services, it is necessary to move beyond government involvement in energy production to promoting private sector participation. He cited the success of the telecom sector as a good example of what needs to be done in the energy sector.

    At the end of the speech, eleven questions were asked. Tinubu answered a number of questions himself, including those about his identity, about youths, and about Diaspora voting. He allocated others to various members of his team, all of whom drew upon Renewed Hope 2023, which provides a comprehensive template for his action plan.

    It was the Q&A session that provided further insights into Tinubu’s solutions to certain major problems. For example, the idea of decentralisation became evident in the discussion of the energy sector and the security architecture.  With regard to energy, Tinubu made it clear that the centralisation of energy and the epileptic national grid are a “broken system”. Instead, energy production and distribution should be decentralised, by getting the private sector involved, and supplemented with renewable energy (see Renewed Hope, pages 30-32, for details).

    Similarly, the security architecture will benefit from a decentralised police system in which federal, state, local, and even smaller communities would have their own police. This is the norm in advanced democracies. The idea is that the more security agents are present, the harder for bandits and kidnappers to operate. The full template for security is contained in the section on National Security in Renewed Hope 2023 (pages 5-10).

    The question about youths allowed Tinubu to highlight some aspects of his education agenda, such as student loans, improved facilities, and the infusion of technology. A further look at the Education section of Renewed Hope 2023 (pages 41-44) shows additional emphasis on improved curriculum, accreditation standards, teacher training, STEM incentives and special education fund.

    It will be useful if critics could set some time aside to read Renewed Hope 2023 to see the beauty of his ideas. They should also reflect on how much ground Tinubu ha covered in his campaign, starting from January this year, when he embarked on consultations. The truth is that he has covered more states to date, some multiple times, than any other presidential candidate. His choice by Chatham House as the first presenter among four top candidates is symbolic of the premier status of his candidacy.