The Nation Newspaper

Category: Wednesday

  • ‘Our Girls; IDPs; CBN; Power

    Our Chibok Girls were kidnapped on April 15, 2014, five years ago on Monday, and over 100 are still unaccounted for. Leah Sharibu, kidnapped on Feb 19, 2018, one plus years ago, in Dapchi was the only one held back after a mass release of over 100, excluding five who died.

    SECURITY: Both events are extreme terrorist murderous outings taken in proportional perspective to thousands killed and millions displaced with no names or places. Last week another 50 dead; murderers masquerading as Zamfara miners; stabbing of new doctor and kidnap of Lagos fire chief and suicide bombs females perhaps forced to kill JTF heroes compound the problems.

    Are we breeding humans for slaughter? The Presidency laments as ‘Operation Puff Adder’ kicks in. Why advertise? Perhaps to inform marauders to relocate before action is taken? The cycle of attack- mayhem-murder-kidnap- show of force visit- bold political statement of never again- withdrawal and another attack is familiar. And now the armed forces, usually reactionary, want more of our budget.

    Are checks and balances in place to ensure that multi-billion naira financial inflows, meant for armed forces service delivery across all defense services do not follow the pre-2015 path of being expropriated and buried in soak-aways, by armed forces top brass and the alleged purchase of jets and the stupendous wealth of many military children? Fear always wins where security is concerned. The armed forces will get their money but how much good will it do the suffering citizen and armed forces units in the fighting field or the Abuja-Kaduna Road requiring more accurate and faster intelligence, instant communication and quicker response time?

    Are there now checks and balances to prevent this profligacy during this government?  Across the spectrum, the ugly head of massive corruption has stained the process of delivery of democracy and distorted the outcomes in all segments from business, electricity, health, education, roads and even the care of IDPs.

    CBN: Stop discriminating against Nigerians!! The minor cut, not slash, in Monetary Policy Rate to 13.5% did not end the world. Cut more. Yes, give single digit loans to music, films and media, cocoa, palm oil etc. But those businesses will still die if the citizens are not empowered to buy their products. CBN still forces citizens to borrow at 30% including 14% MPR. Cut MPR and make single digit loans for every Nigerian citizen. Banks and oil companies are still reporting crazy profits.

    POWER: The nation remains severely underpowered in spite of powerful statements claiming we now have 8,000Mw but can only use 6,000Mws or so and that the problem is evacuation of created power. Well, fix it. That is your job. Who creates a product but does not take it to market, but still boasts about one’s failure?? Only government!!!

    Talk to the South Africans and especially the Japanese who got 10,000Mw of emergency power from emergency power companies [Google them] within three months during a shutdown of Fukushima power plant. South Africa has 51,309Mw for its 58 million population. UN recommends 1,000Mw for every one million citizens. The ministry should wake us up when it has achieved 150,000Mw for its approx. 150 million people. We are not 198 million-a fake fictional figure of politically manipulated grandiose delusions! First the beneficiaries of the power failures must be educated on the benefits of 24/7 grid power. Then get someone or the Chinese who put in 30,000Mw annually in China to extend and revamp our grid to 120,000Mw in four years.

    IDPs: This government wants $8b in loans and donations to rehabilitate/rebuild Nigeria’s IDPs. We must not only pray but we must work to ensure that that money, if realized, actually reaches the IDPs and does not disappear into the pockets of out of state, non IDP workers, contractors, building materials, accountants, bank accounts of  administrators – the very things that diluted the effects of other interventions in the past. Over-administration and excessive bureaucracy increase costs with no added benefit to improved results. This last one is particularly painful because this government should have prevented anything adverse happening to the IDPs. Have they not suffered and are they not suffering enough? Prevention of scandals -sexual and moral, fraud and funding are paramount responsibilities of the government.

    ELECTIONS:  Those thinking that the Buhari government has succeeded in the anti-corruption drive meet the harsh reality that the recent elections demonstrated huge expenditures of money [from where?] by all the major three or four parties- perhaps corruption fighting back but such expenditure was always cross-party for survival. This political financial flood including expenses for crazy mega-billboards, thugs-by-the-dozen, a billion posters and stomach-infrastructure gifts for millions of electorate effectively buying votes by foul or fair means but not for development suggests that political election corruption is alive and will be illegally recovered as ‘first line deductions with massive interest’ from the federal and state budgets. Losers will go the sympathetic states and get fake contracts to replenish their investment in the 2019 election- all crippling the ever-losing Nigerian citizen.

    Meanwhile the real winners of any election, corrupt or not, are the legal ‘luminaries’ lined up on either side of the political divide seeking changes in the results for various reasons and the victorious media houses drunk with the inflows of sacks of political cash for campaigns strategies and material like mega posters, flyers, etc. They have been laughing to the bank for many years-every four years, like clockwork.

     

  • Cut NASS salaries; no VAT hike

    What do Senator Ahmed Lawan and Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila, who seek to lead the senate and House of Representatives think about the insultingly high and mostly secret salaries and perks and constituency projects? Will they seek the slashing of same and bring salaries into the salary scale of the federal government e.g. Level 18,19,1 up to 25? This unbridled and nearly blank paycheck is the main embarrassment of our politics in the international community and a serious insult inflicted on the electorate and citizenry by a greed-polluted political class.

    New National Assembly (NASS) members are being shown around. We hope they too are planning less salary and perks? This should be a key plan of this government.

    Some governors are moving around their finishing projects. But is it an avenue for stealing?  If not, it is a pleasant surprise and a credible alternative to the former widespread practice of raiding their treasuries and shutting down business including the business of paying salaries so as to accumulate ‘take away funds’.

    It is always strange when elephants talk to each other, move menacingly, rub tusks or even struggle with each other especially by prox. Last month, it was an ex-president and an incumbent president seeking re-election. This week it is a proxy war. Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS)’s BabatundeFowler, promoted from working for one elephant to working at a higher plain for another, who proclaimed that national salvation lies in more taxation and in particular more VAT and its immoral distribution across states which did not pay it. He spoke on behalf of a rejuvenated re-elected government’s interest in yielding to the taxman’s suggestion that VAT should be ‘way up there’ – a misquote! Buhari’s is the bigger elephant and may not like to be advised by two people for the same Southwest to go in two directions.  Is this struggle over the spoils of war, the ruins left by war against the people or in the genuine interest of the people? I believe it is about sharing the future income of the hardest workers with others with less opportunity to work or with less inclination to work or those seeking to benefit from where they did not sow from religious inclination. The sharing formula for VAT has always been an acrimonious unsatisfactory event. The situation will only get worse with increasing VAT.

    I have never been a fan of what I consider to be often draconian tax level introduced in Lagos under Tinubu when he was governor and consolidated by Fashola and taken enthusiastically to an outrageous edge by Ambode before he was reined in by the courts after mass protest. This is because it takes no notice of the Nigerian factors in daily life – substituting for power, transport and health failures, extended family costs and the constant fall in naira value all decimating incomes and the value of that income. Yes, an undisclosed fraction of the tax income was used, mostly without permission of those it was extracted from, outside the state nationwide. For this I believe Lagosians who contributed deserve a rebate, not an increase in VAT! However, Lagos has severely underperformed compared to its multi-billion portfolio of income streams. I have always objected to the huge wasteful cost of reducing the overcrowded three-lane Ikorodu Road to a two-lane road, a bad move, with a multibillion concrete lane divider. And too few buses. Even the federal government has made a similar costly error on the Lagos-Ibadan so-called expressway where the concrete median is duplicated more than doubling the cement costs. Instead that money should have tarred many alternative roads or completed the tarring of the expressway.

    Nobody except Nigeria stimulates an economy or manufacturing sector by increasing taxes. Even the Nigerian government offers tax breaks to foreign investors and even single digit loans. Charity, tax charity, should begin at home. Nigerians are very resourceful substituting for a collapse of infrastructure – power, transport, water and security.  And they have created many jobs not on the tax list – middle man, motor tout, car parking boys, road-way sellers in traffic they sometimes create by digging potholes, the army of okada drivers, shopping-bag carriers in addition to the yahoo-yahoo etc. I agree that VAT should not be increased, more people should be brought on board, and some taxes should be lowered to stimulate growth in the economy. At last the MPR, Monetary Policy Rate, has been reduced to 13.5%. Nigerians have suffered for too long under this CBN/Government punishingly high ‘add-on’ to any loan Nigerians take. This is a shameful and evil burden especially in the light of the huge amounts in multi-billions maliciously stolen by almost anybody willing to steal in and out of government and even legally – illegally by NASS members under the guise of as stupendous salaries and perks and constituency projects, SAPing Nigeria dry. Add to this the late and therefore underperformance of the budget and you have a lot of unaccounted funds. Why add to this more tax funds through an increase in VAT?

    Presumably the 9th Senate will guarantee efficiency and re-institute a January -December budget from January 1, 2020. Hopefully it will cut NASS salaries and perks to upper civil service scale and revert constituency projects to relevant ministries. Only then will Nigerians be convinced that NASS has been rebranded in the national interest and we NASS and Nigeria have a future together.

  • National Assembly after Saraki and Tambuwal

    For drama, there are very few institutions that can match Nigeria’s National Assembly. On a given day, anything could happen: from legislators hurling chairs at each other or exchanging blows, to masked thugs invading the chamber to spirit the mace away.

    Sometimes the entertainment is provided by external forces. For instance, in the dying days of the Goodluck Jonathan presidency, the lawmakers arrived for work one day to discover that all entrances had been blocked by the police.

    It was part of the fallout from the power play between Jonathan’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) government and Speaker Aminu Tambuwal who had been flirting openly with the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC). At that point, the votes of the opposition were the only thing sustaining him in office.

    Enraged that they couldn’t gain entrance into their offices, and fearful that the executive was about to pull off something unsavoury against their man, the more excitable and adventurous among the legislators took to scaling the high gates and fences – not minding the impediment of their billowing agbadas. In the end the police backed off and normalcy was restored.

    More recently in August last year, it was the secret police in the form of hooded State Security Service (SSS) agents that arrived to seal off the assembly. Assisted by truckloads of the regular cops, their assignment was ostensibly to supervise the overthrow of Senate President Bukola Saraki and his deputy Ike Ekweremadu.

    But such was the backlash that Acting President Yemi Osinbajo removed the then SSS Director-General, Lawal Daura, from his position.

    From the early days of the Fourth Republic, the assembly has been a hotbed of intrigue as a succession of Senate Presidents and Speakers were toppled in messy coups at the behest of the Executive.

    Among victims were the likes of Evans Enwerem, Chuba Okadigbo, Anyim Pius Anyim, Adolphus Wabara, Salisu Buhari, Patience Etteh and Dimeji Bankole.

    While the legislature is a separate arm of government, its ability to choose its leadership without interference from external forces, has been limited. Although the arms are supposed to work in concert, the parliament’s power over the national purse as well as constitutional role in the possible impeachment of a president or governor makes it a threat to insecure politicians in the executive branch.

    This fact has often defined the relationship between the two sides. Many in the executive believe that they can only sleep with two eyes closed if they install a stooge to lead the legislature. On the part of the lawmakers many chafe under this constraint as they struggle to balance the desire for cordial ties with their constitutional duty to provide checks and balances.

    Under President Olusegun Obasanjo, the National Assembly was a very unstable place for those who led the institution. His successors – Umaru Yar’Adua and Jonathan – were less overbearing and allowed the lawmakers greater room for self-expression. But that didn’t stop the pattern of the executive overtly trying to install Senate Presidents and Speakers.

    That was until President Muhammadu Buhari famously washed his hands off the matter in 2015, declaring that he could work with anyone. His position was unprecedented in recent times and completely caught the APC leadership which was still trying to guide the succession process off-guard.

    In the vacuum that was created Saraki launched his power grab in the Senate with a bloc vote from the PDP, while half of the APC lawmakers were on a wild goose chase elsewhere in Abuja. In the House of Representatives, his confederate, Yakubu Dogara, pulled a similar stunt – again allying with elements of the opposition to defeat Femi Gbajabiamila who was backed by the party.

    While Saraki’s actions angered many within the ruling party’s leadership, his move was by no means original. Indeed, he had merely torn a page out of the APC’s very own play book as the party had openly cooperated with Tambuwal when he defied the PDP to run against the party approved candidate for Speaker, Mulikat Adeola. So, this was a case of unorthodox politics coming back to bite you.

    Since that episode, however, many have come to think that this is the proper way of doing things. Nothing can be farther from the truth.

    In pursuing their bids for self-actualisation, Saraki, Tambuwal and Dogara, trampled the concept of party supremacy underfoot. They probably felt they could later beg for forgiveness after deliberately sinning. It helped that at that point they were dealing with a naïve president and a weak party chairman.

    With attention now reverting to the National Assembly succession, many have been watching to see how the APC would handle things and how the PDP would play its own cards.

    Anxious not to allow a repeat of the debacle of four years ago, Buhari and the ruling party’s leaders have quickly seized the initiative by anointing Senate Majority Leader, Ahmed Lawan, to lead the upper chamber. They are believed also to have lined up the House Leader, Femi Gbajabiamila, for the Speaker slot.

    Further firing up controversy, APC National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, bluntly declared that the ruling party would not share power with the opposition. All committee chairs would be from the ruling party except for one slot constitutionally set aside for the opposition.

    While some have questioned whether this forceful intervention is wise given that it takes away much of the approved aspirant’s room for compromise, it does appear to have had an effect.

    It has only drawn muted protest from one aspirant – Senator Ali Ndume, but we’ve not witnessed the sort of mutinous response we saw in 2015. Buhari has also moved to mollify another interested party, Danjuma Goje.

    For its part, the PDP insists it would put up candidates to lead the National Assembly and would do everything in its power to derail the APC’s plans.

    Despite the criticism he has received, I can’t find much that is wrong with Oshiomhole’s position which simply echoes a basic principle that in a democracy the majority rules.

    Nigeria’s National Assembly, just like the presidency, is closely patterned after the United States’ model with minor modifications. In the US, the day to day business of the Senate is run by the Majority Leader and not a Senate President.

    However, succession from election to election is without fuss, as the most senior person simply moves into the next slot. For instance, when the Democrat’s Harry Reid was Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell of the Republican Party was Minority Leader. When the Republicans became the majority he became the leader of the Senate.

    The same thing happened in the  House of Representatives where Nancy Pelosi who used to be Minority Leader seamlessly stepped into the Speaker’s chair when the Democrats became the majority last November.

    In the same manner, it is the party with the largest number that heads the legislative committees. What occurred under Saraki in the Senate and Tambuwal and Dogara in the House with the two parties sharing chairmanships as equals was an aberration.

    They had to share power with the opposition because the manner in which they emerged demanded that there be a quid pro quo. Such arrangements are forced on you where you can’t muster a majority and have to cobble a working coalition together. It is uncalled for where you are in clear majority in the two chambers as is the case with the APC today.

    It is immoral politics for a party in minority to seek to rule over the majority. That would be like attempting to overturn the expressed will of the people.

    Rather than seek to govern a chamber where it is the second largest in number, the PDP should strive to excel in its opposition role and offer Nigerians a clear governance alternative.

    But such is the character of our politics today that despite its clear majorities in the House and Senate, there is still considerable trepidation within and without the APC as to whether it can make its members line up behind those backed by officialdom.

    There is this false notion that once people step into the chambers of the assembly, they should no longer be held to their partisan obligations. Nothing could be more wrongheaded. The Senate or House are not some special political clubs where legislators lose their partisan identifies.

    They are simply fora where people advance the vision of their parties for governing the country. Sometimes, there could be bipartisanship on issues. At other times voting could follow strict pary lines. It happens all over the world and we would not reinvent the wheel in Nigeria.

    I suspect that the case would be different in 2019 for a couple of reasons. The ruling party now has a strong leadership that has shown that it is able to confront those who were hitherto untouchables. Its handling of Ogun State Governor Ibikunle Amosun and his Imo counterpart Rochas Okorocha attests to that.

    Secondly, there is no Saraki in this contest. In 2015, he was driven by ambition and the politics of the legacy groups within APC. Since the presidency was out of the question, the Senate Presidency was the next best thing his new-PDP could fight for. He had the profile, following and resources to go against the party line and emerge unscathed.

    The dynamics are different this time. Those expecting a repeat of what happened four years ago should ask themselves whether Goje or Ndume want the Senate Presidency so badly that they are willing to confront Buhari and the APC high command. How far would they be willing to go in pursuit of their ambition?

    But perhaps the most important factor in the struggle for power in the National Assembly is the fact that PDP has emerged from the elections stronger than before. It has taken four states from the APC and now has governors in all zones. The APC has lost its lone foothold in the Southeast – Imo State.

    But what it lost at gubernatorial level, it has made up for by adding control of the National Assembly to its grip on the presidency. For it to maintain the initiative going into the next election cycle, it only makes sense for it to unapologetically maximise its advantages. I suspect that the PDP would do the same if positions were swapped.

     

     

     

  • Our Girls; Success – a girl failed by governors

    Our Chibok girls were kidnapped on April 15, 2014. Leah Sharibu and others are not yet released.

    Study the total votes in Kano, Plateau, Benue and Rivers; where are the voters? They do not exist. Our population is probably around 130-150m as we had under 30million voters. INEC is blameless, not responsible for violence during elections – political parties are. Face the parties, not INEC!

    The Success Adegor story is about a delightful Delta State articulate girl-child sent home for not paying what government quickly labelled an ‘illegal exam levy’.  Her parents, out of penury or protest or pride or ignorance or arrogance or anti-corruption, did not pay.

    Do your research before apportioning blame. Is the acting headteacher an honest soul struggling to educate children with no government grants for running costs? Governments rarely give running cost grants beyond salaries. Parents and governments always misinterpret the slogan ‘free education’ for ‘total free education’. Unfortunately they then refuse to substitute for a negligent government which under-provides equipment and learning environment and is also guilty of lying about its policy desire or ability to provide total education.  This leaves the pupil at an educational disadvantage when compared to pupils in liberal schools and private schools. In the latter, parents are encouraged to add value through donations of funds, magazines, books, sports and other needed equipment, buildings and payment for excursions.

    No school or university anywhere in the world has enough despite fees and good education budgets. It a painful paradox that only Nigerian ‘free education’ schools are not allowed to admit that they need help. Nonsense! Not allowing teachers to request, under supervision, for support is stifling initiative and the quality of education delivery. Allowing them to ask is not an admission of failure of free education policy but a reality check and a required supplement. No budget is ever enough, especially in education. Do not deny parents and PTA their primary responsibility for their children’s education. And stop deceiving teachers. Rather give awards to the best-supporting parents and PTAs and Old Students Associations and corporate bodies. Is the corrupt teacher extorting?

    While we castigate our teachers as the education funds are repeatedly stolen, one Kenyan maths and science teacher Peter Tabichi in a religious brother’s habit has won the Global Teacher Prize of $1m by the Varkey Foundation in Dubai for turning around the fortunes of a similarly neglected school as the one that Success goes to. We saw on TV the accursed pigsty quality of the school facilities making it more dangerous than the private Lagos collapsed school building because it is a government entity, protected from inspection and closure.

    No government has closed its own schools, yet across the country, there are thousands of government schools like the Success school- pigsties. The Delta State school is not ‘Child and Teacher Friendly Learning Environment’. It is a shameful pigsty in a state which is has the 4th highest per capita income in the country and receives 13% derivation and exposes a flaw in governance, repeated nationwide. Shamefully, every state has 500-1000+ such neglected schools. The teacher said the levy was for photocopying etc. The travail of the girl Success is a failure of political and education services.  Free education is often ‘Rubbish Under-funded Education’ with little help beyond delayed salaries provided by government especially at the primary level where there are not even Old Students Associations to help out.

    We all conduct or have participated in exams and know what they take in terms of material and logistics from time-table to question papers. If government does not give exam grant, do we expect no exam or the teachers to take funds from their tiny salaries for the purpose? I can bet you there is no grant from the Ministry of Education for anything including examinations and sports and co-curricular activities. The abysmal and selfishly myopic or ignorant or misguided refusal of Nigerian parents to provide the missing support to the abysmal free education efforts of governments coupled with the rejection of support from willing parents and the absence of primary school  Old Students Associations and the non-accessing the UBEC counterpart funding and of course the refusal of states to give needed grants to schools for running costs culminate in killing the potential of millions of children like Success and the denting and dampening the dedication of any wonderful Nigerian teacher/education leader.

    Saraki’s and senate’s N30,000 minimum wage is a Greek Gift -the Trojan Horse- and a poisoned chalice and is classic Saraki like the forced 1+ year calamitous delay forced on Nigerians by the slashing and diversion of a budgeted N15b Lagos-Ibadan expressway budget to untraceable corruption-driven National Assembly (NASS) constituency projects. It is a parting present which is a financial burden to his enemies currently in power. Who will face dwindling capital budgets from this rising recurrent wage bill above the N27,000 recommended by the federal government. Governors always manage, like Saraki, to forget that their own huge salaries overburden the budget. The extra money will come from huge funds of governance that would otherwise have been stolen. It is a desired parting gift dangled before workers but undeliverable. Now Saraki is in a win-win situation. He will retire laughing as Buhari may not sign it into law. Saraki will be long gone by the 30 days senate needs to override the president as senate seeks to keep their own fat-fat salaries and constituency projects.

  • Lagos: Why I don’t envy Babajide Sanwo-Olu

    Aside the presidency, being governor of Lagos State is one of the most powerful and prestigious political offices anyone can occupy in Nigeria – and for good reason too.

    Lagos is the nation’s commercial capital and currently ranked the fifth largest economy in Africa –putting it ahead of over 40 countries on the continent. It equally outstrips the 35 other states in terms of revenue generation and overall economic performance.

    Such is the depth of the state’s strength that in 2018 it generated 76% of its revenues internally. This amounted to about N34 billion monthly. Governor Akinwumi Ambode mid last year spoke of an aspiration to reduce the state’s dependence of federal revenues to less than 10%.

    While these figures may seem impressive against the backdrop of 27 states being almost bankrupt, much of what it generates is also devoured by overheads, an ambitious infrastructure development programme and the challenges of catering for an ever surging population whose reveal numbers remain guesstimates.

    State government statistics says 86 immigrants enter Lagos every minute of the day – the highest rate of any city in the world. That translates into 123,840 entrants on a daily basis and they come to stay.

    This influx overwhelms whatever facilities are on the ground and outpaces the ability of the government to provide new ones. So while the city might look like one massive construction site, whatever is being built simply plays catch-up, but never catching-up.

    This pattern will remain for as long as the rest of the country continues to struggle economically – leaving the city and to a lesser extent Abuja and Port Harcourt as the only centres of opportunity open to the desperate. This is the challenge that Governor-Elect, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, will inherit in a matter of weeks.

    His rise was unscripted, as the incumbent Ambode was expected to have an easy ride to a second term courtesy of his ambitious vision for altering the face of the city. In the first two years, his aggressive opening up of the interior of the state as well as showpiece projects like the Abule-Egba and Ajah flyovers, the skywalk and bus terminals at Oshodi and elsewhere, marked him out as a man of action who was intent on outperforming his predecessor, Babatunde Fashola.

    He was not only building big, he was equally providing solutions in certain areas of the city like Ojodu and Oworonsoki where traffic jams had become nightmarish. Unfortunately, it all went wrong suddenly.

    Ultimately, his attempt to reform the process of clearing refuse in the city proved his undoing. In the Visionscape debacle his political skills were tested and he fell short. Just as the deal collapsed, the coalition that brought him to power gave way – and the rest is history.

    Whatever may be Ambode’s legacy in terms of infrastructural development, he leaves for his successor a city that has regressed in so many ways.

    Today, Lagos has become one of the dirtiest cities on the continent. This dubious distinction was something the Bola Tinubu and Fashola administrations had managed to bury.

    The inability of the outgoing governor to crack the Visionscape logjam provides Sanwo-Olu with an opportunity for a quick win. The city stinks and is crying desperately for a clean-up. The world would sit up and notice if he can make the mounds of filth disappear.

    To his credit, under Ambode violent crime remained relatively low. Ironically, it was also a period marked by unprecedented lawlessness on the roads and elsewhere. A drive on most Lagos roads is like engaging in mortal combat. You may escape with your life but your vehicle would be the worse for wear.

    On any given day, from the tony environs of Ikoyi to the more prosaic parts of town, swarms of commercial motorcyclists (okada) and tricyclists unleash a reign of terror on the roads. Not satisfied with seizing the roads where the laws say they are officially barred, they now ride freely on pedestrian sidewalks! Driving against traffic, jumping the lights, is accepted practice. Frankly, on Lagos roads you can get away with murder – and not just in a figurative sense.

    Compounding the sense of chaos is the collusion of security officials with delinquent commercial bus drivers and motorcyclists. It is really a lost battle when those who are supposed to enforce regulations are in bed with offenders.

    Another maddening contradiction of the Ambode era is the fact that while embarking on these huge projects like the BRT lane from Abule-Egba to Oshodi, basic things like patching potholes on existing roads were left undone.

    What used to be a tradition of constantly fixing failed portions of key arteries in the city has been abandoned. No area is exempt – not even the seat of government in Alausa.

    The only reason these roads would be left in this condition is lack of funds. But a state that is able to finance multi-billion naira mega projects can spend a few billions fixing potholes if those governing care about the same things as the governed. The condition of roads – major and minor – is another crisis area Sanwo-Olu must address in a hurry.

    Lagos is a city of contrasts where breath-taking opulence lives side-by-side with depressing poverty. The aforementioned swarms of commercial motorcyclists are not just a nuisance on the road: they are a constant reminder of the impoverished state of the larger population in the city.

    That poverty is also on display in the form of street traders selling everything from fresh fruit to fire extinguishers taking over the rail tracks at Ikeja or the uncompleted BRT lane at Iyana-Ipaja as evening falls. The streets become a moving mall because the vendors – battling with daily survival – cannot afford regular stalls in proper markets.

    This poverty is another reason why the okada problem has defied solution. Although they provide transport solutions for people who wish to move swiftly along the clogged roads, they are now one of the major employers of labour in the city. The numbers in operation are probably in the tens of thousands. To eliminate them would require the creations of tens of thousands of jobs otherwise many would take to a life of crime.

    The ability of the government to create jobs for such a large number is limited. But the new administration can encourage the private sector to generate employment by ditching policies that are not pro-business or those that deter the would-be entrepreneur. In this context, multi-taxation by different levels of government in the state needs to be addressed.

    It is no exaggeration to say that if Lagos works, Nigeria works. For the city to be better than it is now, the incoming governor and his team must outgrow the smug satisfaction of being better endowed than less-favoured states, and focus on transforming the city into a truly world class metropolis.

    That begins with dealing with the problem of lawlessness and ensuring that basic rules are obeyed. Lagos cannot be a jungle where anything goes, if it truly aspires to be something special. The Eko o ni baje slogan must move beyond a fond wish and become active impulse that drives how people live.

    That requires a measure of ruthlessness. The governor-elect looks like a nice guy – all smiles and charm. But in Lagos nice guys don’t win, unless their external veneer hides an iron will. Until Fashola, Oshodi was a transport hub notorious for crime, grime and gridlock. But with steely determination he tamed it. Does Sanwo-Olu possess that same streak? His actions would shortly speak for themselves.

  • Our Girls; Census fiction; politics vs governance

    Our Chibok girls were kidnapped on April 15, 2014. Leah Sharibuand others are not yet released. Fifty killed in New Zealand terror attack on a mosque. Cyclone kills 150 people in Southern Africa, death everywhere.

    Census fiction, population politics! Fake census figures!! Where are they? Who? The number of registered voters was 82-84million. The total number of voters 28,614,190 active voters =35.6% of registered voters. Perhaps this figure is exaggerated by 5-10% by thumbprint fraud, but these extra votes will cancel out those who did not vote from violent exclusion. Where are the remaining voters? 82-84,000,000 – 29,000,000 approximately= 53-55,000,000 lost voters. And what a waste of unused voter material.

    Are the remaining unseen voters abstainers, protesters or nonexistent? Perhaps we also need an ‘I did not vote’ protest vote register. Imagine if they had all voted for a single new party. Are they real or fictitious, no-show under-aged voters, in hospital, at work, dead and voters who registered elsewhere? Are they imports from foreign countries? Do they exist? Are they part of the fictional political media-mouthed exaggerated projections for Nigeria to be 200 million people, without the matching reproductive success to guarantee growth in the population? Nothing can explain the absence of 60+ percent of voters, except that, just maybe, half do not legally exist, leaving us with a true population of 198- 60m =138 or maximum 150million. Our censuses have always been a dangerous tragic minefield of magical mathematics and blatantly arrogant travesty of justice since the British tampered with them to give advantage to the North and are inflated for fiscal and power-keeping reasons.

    Alert; alert to all politicians. Politics is politics. Governance is hard work. Moral reputations are easily made and easily destroyed. The unsavoury information around a largely unlamented recently deceased National Assembly (NASS) member with a peculiarly questionable past does not inspire the youth with confidence in politicians. Nigerians feel disgusted with an apparently stupid and ludicrously expensive ‘tradition’ of suspending governance of 150m citizens for a day just because a NASS member dies. What a waste. NASS please change this rule to ‘One Minute Silent and a few tears’. We all die, and NASS member’s death is no different from the rest of us. The country cannot stand still for a day especially not at NASS members pay. NASS members are not worth it. When dead they should get a ‘minute of silence’ like the rest of us, who however mostly get only a ‘moment of silence’. It feels worse when NASS takes a day off when dishonor is smelt.

    Politicians must distinguish between ‘politics for self’ and ‘politics to accelerate service for progressive governance’. In normal societies ‘Governance’ is not a mere side-effect or sideshow of politics. Governance is the norm.   Is a norm, a necessity, not a choice? It is part of the oath of office. The people are angry in their failure to make progress against the politicians’ wall of irresponsible behaviour in governance. Sloth, feeble distribution of a few implements of work. Political dancing and singing will no longer work to entertain and divert their attention. Politicians, beware 2019-2023 will be different. Politicians, be aware that during 2019-2023, the people want nothing but their long denied rights including proper use of their money, all their money.

    Perhaps the past performance of some politicians is not their fault. But failure is certainly morally their fault because everyone instinctively knows right from wrong. Why do so many politicians choose the wrong path, the path of criminality and evil?  Have you ever thought through the words good and evil? One letter added or taken from each leads to their master? Remove ‘o’ from Good = God, Add ‘d’ to Evil = devil. Simple. But we are told politicians are under tremendous pressure to do evil and allow their members to recover campaign expenses often massively inflated. Invest N10million claim N20 or N50 0r N100 million, abi? Who is counting? It is not their money anyway. It is obvious that they do not ‘have the love’ or understand responsibility for others wellbeing. This makes them unsuitable for a leadership role in anything especially politics which requires a passion for people’s needs. Politics is founded on service not power, the reverse of the Nigerian situation even at LGA level. Politicians have not learnt everything is not politics or political. They require to wear two hats or two faces. There should be two modes for politicians -the ‘Political Mode’ during elections and the development ‘Service Mode’ to deliver the rightful development needs of every citizen irrespective of party affiliations.

    The development needs of the citizens are the non-political service exemplified by the UN-demanded SDGs for the 21st Century ‘Universal Rights of Democracy’. They are not politically motivated and are wrongly labelled ‘Dividends of Democracy’ which are extraordinary democracy developments, not exercise-books. Politics must be distinguished from ‘Routine Responsible Governance’ to provide infrastructure and services regardless of political bias. The mixing of the two led to Nigeria’s reversed fortunes in development manifest best described by a lack of electric power. Development plans die, sacrificed on the altar of political expediency. The ‘Political Great Greed’ of a few thousand party people and co-thieves destroys ‘The People’s Great Need’  of 120-150,000,000 citizens for growth. Nigeria repeatedly starts an engine only to kill it before it can deliver democracy forcing Nigeria into decline.

  • Nigeria and her vanishing voters

    At the just-concluded general elections, many voted with their feet rather than fingers and we are still scratching our heads wondering why.

    If voters are becoming an endangered species, it is certainly not for lack of numbers. Officially, Nigeria has 84 million registered voters and of that number, 72.7 million collected permanent voters cards (PVCs) to enable them participate in the polls. That represents 86.3% of persons on the electoral roll – a very high figure indeed.

    But those who picked up the cards were probably more intent on using them for identification purposes, than for queuing in the sun to elect their leaders.

    On Election Day they confirmed this by the numbers that showed up at polling stations. In states like Abia, Enugu and Ebonyi turnout was well below 30% at the February 23 presidential and National Assembly polls. The national average was only slightly better at 34.75%.

    If those numbers were depressing, the turnout for the governorship and state houses of assembly elections two weeks later was abysmal in most places across the country. At some locations it was barely 20% of those who could vote.

    These figures represent a steady pattern of decline from a high of 70% in 1999 when the military ceded power to civilians, to an average turnout of 42% in 2015, and now barely 35% showing up to vote in this year’s polls. Anyone attempting an honest analysis of this phenomenon would do well to acknowledge that the trend is not new.

    What should bother anyone concerned about sustainability of democracy in Nigeria is that until now we’ve not had a serious national discussion about voter apathy.

    It is especially troubling that this year’s turnout is one the lowest of all recent elections held on the African continent. According to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (I-IDEA), it is the second lowest – the worst being 32.3% recorded at the 1996 Zimbabwean presidential election.

    While we may not all agree as to what is responsible for the apathy, it is evident that these low numbers are symptomatic of something grievously wrong with the electoral process. The source of the dysfunction needs to be quickly identified and addressed.

    Catholic Archbishop of Abuja, John Onaiyekan, speaking immediately after the gubernatorial polls, described the turnout as a “massive boycott.” He said in many places it was “a loud protest and vote of no confidence in a process that had destroyed their trust in the system.”

    It was a sentiment echoed by Atiku Abubakar, presidential candidate of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who, after voting on March 9 in Yola, Adamawa State, mournfully declared that he had no confidence that his vote would count. Never mind the fact that his party had won the state handily on February 23 and is well-placed to prevail in the governorship contest in a state presently controlled by an All Progressives Congress (APC) administration.

    Voter apathy in 2019 is a malaise brought on by a complex mix of factors; it goes beyond any shortcomings that can be attributed to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) or the Muhammadu Buhari administration.

    At a primary level, it is a protest against politicians who only remember the people every four years when they desperately need their votes. This is the dynamic that drives vote buying and selling. The cynical voter feels that the only time he or she would benefit from the politician is when they can extract the measly two thousand naira price for their vote. Once the results are in, the victors quickly revert to their default mode: filling their pockets with the spoils of office far from the cares and concerns of their hapless constituents.

    This disconnection between the political class and the people is being further exacerbated along age and regional lines. The younger generation of Nigerians – especially south of the Niger – who incidentally form the bulk of the population, appear less interested in all matters political than the older folk.

    A meme that made the rounds on social media during the elections aptly captured this phenomenon. In the image, there is a long queue of voters of all ages somewhere in the North, waiting patiently to cast their ballots. Directly beneath that was another picture of a group of youths playing football on a traffic-free street in Lagos on Election Day.

    That is a pithy riposte to cynics who sought to understand why turnout was much higher in certain areas up North supposedly susceptible to insurgent attacks, whereas in many areas in the South far from fear of violence, it was anaemic.

    Contributing to the problem is the low priority paid to civic education. INEC and government at different levels are not doing enough, neither are political parties, schools, religious organisations or parents helping much.

    Voters don’t just materialise, they are mobilised. Even in established democracies like the United States and United Kingdom, get-out-the-vote initiatives are major undertakings by political parties and non-partisan organisations to boost the turnout on voting day. It is something executed in a systemic manner – not by deploying the fire brigade approach for which we are famous.

    So, we now have a major problem getting the young and middle-aged enthusiastic about the political process.

    Getting the self-absorbed selfie and Instagram generation interested in anything other than themselves is tough enough: getting them excited about their civic responsibility requires more effort than is presently being devoted to it.

    Another factor that has definitely impacted turnout is the order of elections. In the past when the presidential elections came last, the outcomes of the gubernatorial contests stirred up enough anxiety, keeping interest at fever pitch for the main bout between the leading presidential candidates.

    But since the order was reversed – making the presidential polls first – state elections have become something of an anti-climax. It requires something extraordinary to motivate disappointed supporters whose candidate has just lost out in the big one, to file out for another contest where all signals indicate that defeat is the likely end. You need just as much effort to push the complacent.

    The other major reason for low turnout is fear of violence. In this cycle, the role of the military in the electoral process has come under close scrutiny. In certain parts of this country like Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Delta States, violence has become an intrinsic part of the process.

    Every electoral season is marked by killing, maiming and burning. Whoever has the upper hand in wreaking violence, or has the cooperation of the security forces, had free rein to cook up fraudulent results – especially in remote areas.

    It is to be expected that a people who have been terrorised by desperate politicians using vicious thugs to secure their goals, would be wary of putting themselves in harm’s way. The real question is whether it is the presence of soldiers or the activities of the fearless gunmen that frightens potential voters off the streets.

    These thugs are so well armed that the police – supposedly the lead security agency for the elections – are often outgunned. It is only the military that has proven to be sufficient deterrent to them. So if people argue that the presence of soldiers suppressed turnout in the Niger Delta, can the same be said of other areas of the country where they sight of them had a calming influence on the populace?

    Take away the soldiers from Rivers and Bayelsa and they would revert to the theatres of violence and bloodletting that we saw in 2015.

    Was there abuse of the electoral process by the military? Did they in any way prevent voters from exercising their franchise? That is for the authorities to investigate and punish where infractions are confirmed.

    The much-anticipated 2019 elections have come and gone. The process may not been pretty, but some of the surprising and unexpected outcomes are indicators that much of the past abuses are fading away.

    To win back the voters, more reforms are needed to make the process less tiresome. Still, it all boils down to what the government does about the identified security challenges. Democracy cannot take root, for as long as those bent on violently denying people the right to make a free choice, are allowed to thrive unchallenged.

     

    The avoidable deaths at Ita-Faaji

    wo days after the loss of 20 lives following the collapse of another decrepit building at Ita-Faaji in central Lagos on Wednesday, March 13, the state government began demolishing many of the structures in the area which had been marked for demolition.

    The four-storey structure which became the tomb for 20 young lives was marked for demolition in 2014. If it was adjudged to be unsafe for human habitation five years ago why was allowed to remain until it buried over a dozen little boys and guys?

    Lagos State Governor, Akinwumi Ambode, who rushed to the scene for the usual sympathy visit had an explanation: some of the landlords whose properties were affected, resisted the notices. This is an appalling excuse to give.

    What is the use of pasting a demolition notice if you have no intention of acting on it? In what form was the defiance of the landlords manifested to the extent that demolition could not be carried out for all of five years? Were there court orders stopping the government from following through on an action that was essentially for public safety?

    The absence of political will on the part of the state government, rather than the obduracy of the so-called landlords, was what allowed this avoidable calamity.

    We see that same weakness manifesting with regards to the insanity on most Lagos roads. In spite of all the laws against commercial motorcycles roaming free on expressways, today they have become an uncontrollable menace – just one road rage incident away from causing a major disaster in the city.

    We would not see any action until it happens – triggering a merry-go-round of sympathy visits and photo-ops from those who should have acted firmly to prevent it. A stitch is time can still save many potential casualties.

     

  •  Our Girls; Victory= service; ballot papers = jotters

    Our Chibok girls were kidnapped on April 15, 2014. Leah Sharibuand others are not yet released.

    An Ethiopian plane crashed claiming 156 lives including two Nigerians: Professor  of Literature and African Studies and columnist Pius Adesanmi and Ambassador BiodunBashua. A tragedy for Ethiopia, Nigeria and for all.

    Murder to win a political office of service? Violent victory is not politics but murder. More than 56 killed and others kidnapped or injured in 2019 election violence according to civil society groups, including voters, security and INEC staff kidnapped. A horrifying record of criminality by political parties, not INEC. INEC is an administrative body, not a security outfit. Murder, kidnapping, theft and burning ballot boxes are security breaches, not INEC administrative failures. You cannot get a miracle from mayhem. Politics is Nigeria’s natural disaster.

    The Nigerian electorate has been crippled by the criminal cash-carrying raiding of the budget and the citizen’s pocket. Hopefully, you elected ‘I love Nigeria’ knowledgeable candidates in 2019 thus meeting SDG 16 and securing Nigeria’s developmental and economic future. Hopefully, yes, and if not, Nigerians must force the ‘elected’ and their political baggage to be humble and fulfill the shattered aspirations for respectable living. Poor political human material gives poor developmental results unless the professionals are recognized and utilised. Politicians know nothing but decide everything.

    Winning brings grave responsibility to work for the masses!!!! Another cycle of political failure will ruin Nigeria! Today’s Nigerians demand that a winning political party, winning by any means necessary, can no longer be an extortionist invading armed force pillaging the coffers and abandoning the citizens. Nigerians have a history of being insulted and walked over as ‘mere masses’ by politicians wallowing in ‘euphoria of victory’ as if they outwitted the citizens. The Nigerian citizen is not your prize or possession, the budget is not your reward or your private property. Nigerians suffer from a neglected right to be protected by politics. Instead we are extorted from by the greedy, selfish political self-funding system inherent for 50 years compounded by the consumptive presidential system Salaries and Perks -SAP-, constitutional projects scams and deliberately opaque fiscal surveillance and morality. This is criminal sometimes legalized rape of the citizen. Nigeria’s states will not survive another four years of greed and rape of the budget, failing in providing the nation’s infrastructural needs, essential to civilized existence.

    Politicians quickly forget the suffering of the voters. No people, no vote. Politicians must pay the people back. Probably more than 80% voted without political bribery, just using heart, head and hearsay hoping for improved service delivery. Politicians should not be entitled to unearned Excellency, Honourable and Distinguished and should earn the prefixed through genuine service as they should be deeply indebted to Nigeria’s voters. We expect maximum service not ‘power play’. Citizens, do not stand up when politicians below level of governor enter the room. They do not deserve such honour from you.

    Politicians, your ‘victory’ is not an act of God. God knows exactly what you did, good and bad, and what was done to others in your name. He allowed, but cannot approve of, criminal activities enforcing a wrong victory. That victory may also be partly the result of your actions, in your past life and present actions, by fair means or foul, with or without the following: stolen money in past positions, bloodstained streets and graves, broken bodies and spirits, intimidation, bribery of the electorate and the ubiquitous stomach infrastructure with mass cancellation of votes and even over-voting. You may have spent millions or billions. Whose money? Stolen? Will you rob Nigeria to replenish your spent money with huge interest by stealing from cripplingly inflated, abandoned unexecuted contracts and extortionary backdated rates and taxes- a post-election ‘gift’ to voters- the citizenry?

    Society cannot survive more than 10% political corruption. The election expenses of politicians are an extra-budgetary payback ‘Political election debt burden’ the country is forced to pay to politicians by them stealing on assumption of office. It is the foundation of the underdevelopment and destruction of Nigeria. Nigeria will die, be consumed by the locust political class, if this greed does not stop immediately. Politicians must keep, not kill, the goose that lays the golden egg.

    God has provided that every state and even LGA has annually been allocated more than enough for the complete revamping of the infrastructure. It is the state political class, which has failed and we mistakenly blame the federal government. Stupid us. True, the federal government must be blamed for stealing funds needed to alleviate rubbish power supply and poor roads, but states and LGA corrupted leadership has no zeal for development of even their own kith and kin. Yes, you are the politicians in power today. From tomorrow you will either steal from your ‘new children’ or give them their rights opportunities enshrined in the constitution to enter the 21st Century.

    Winners who won honestly or even by crook or hook, must ensure they quickly tabulate the hundreds of fantastic ideas, policy suggestions, cries of neglect, manifesto points from other parties, public debates and the media and brain storm with a POST ELECTION THINKTANK quick incorporation into progressive policy.

    Politician, you ignore professional advice and under-develop Nigeria. Your every action or inaction in addressing files and policies affects the citizen’s life.

    INEC: Recycle: Do not destroy or burn unused ballot papers. Make them into jotters for school students.

  • 2019 Elections: Why Buhari won and Atiku lost

    Except you are Atiku Abubakar, you would accept that the 2019 general elections have been won and lost and nothing is likely to change the outcome.

    But the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate is a fighter who knows that this is probably his last shot at the presidency and would use every means possible to actualise his long-cherished dream.

    For him and many of his diehard backers, Muhammadu Buhari and his All Progressives Congress (APC) procured their victory through massive rigging. To prove that he is right and everyone else is wrong, he has initiated a legal challenge of the declared results.

    He calls the 2019 general elections ‘the worst in Nigeria’s history.’ But then it wouldn’t be a Nigerian election if the loser doesn’t cry rigging.

    These polls were certainly not flawless, but by no stretch of the imagination can they be dismissed in such ungenerous terms. Most observers acknowledge that the process was largely free and transparent across the country.

    Sure, there were disruptions in a number of locations. But the sinners were on both sides. For every video of malpractice which the opposition has, there are many showing people identified as PDP supporters doing dirty things. What Atiku has to prove, is whether this pattern was so prevalent across the 36 states as to invalidate the official results.

    Anyone insisting that these elections were only about rigging is simply in denial. The surprising pattern of results across the country doesn’t support such claims: not even Machiavelli could have cooked them up.

    Four years on, the president and APC still couldn’t manage a win in any of the South-South and South-eastern states – despite the police and military being available to be used as instruments of rigging.

    In the Southwest – supposedly a stronghold of the ruling party – Atiku won in Ondo and Oyo States. In the latter, the incumbent governor Abiola Ajimobi was humiliated in his bid to win a senate seat.

    Buhari only edged the former Vice President by about 10,000 votes in Osun. In Lagos, the margin between the parties closely mirrored what happened in 2015.

    Should we then assume that the improvements achieved in this zone by the PDP were down to its rigging prowess?

    One of the biggest stories of this election cycle was the comprehensive dismantling of the Bukola Saraki political machine in Kwara State. But rather than put his shocking defeat down to rigging, the Senate President quietly accepted his fate and graciously congratulated the winners.

    As predicted, Buhari and the ruling party lost in Benue, Plateau and Taraba States because of herdsmen killings as well as issues of religion and ethnicity. Here, again, we see the rigging allegations falling flat on their face.

    That leaves us with the Northwest and Northeast which, even, the most cynical of the opposition’s supporters would acknowledge as the ruling party’s strongholds – where it doesn’t have to manipulate things to achieve its ends. But the PDP would have us believe that the rigging here had to do with tweaking the margins between the parties!

    With Atiku already in court, we would soon discover whether he and his party are right and the rest of the world is wrong. But on available evidence, nothing about their loss surprises me. It was something I predicted four years ago because the then ruling party misdiagnosed why it lost power.

    It actually believed that the major factor in its defeat in 2015 was what it called APC’s ‘lies and propaganda.’ In rare moments of light penetrating, some of its leaders had apologised to the nation for its errors. But the ambivalence over the real source of its problems would see its other leading lights whining about being undone by propaganda.

    I argued in my column titled ‘PDP must earn right to criticise Buhari’ published on Sunday, May 10, 2015, that the former ruling party would never get it right for as long as it refuses to properly identify why it has found itself in the opposition wilderness. The reason is not the rigging or propaganda prowess of its main rival.

    I reproduce the following excerpt from that four-year old piece:

    “Buhari’s assignment is complicated by the bitterness factor. The Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) was unprepared for the loss of the presidency. Party spokesman aptly described his organization as ‘traumatized’.

    “Many in the ruling party still cannot reconcile themselves with what has just happened: they are handing over the reins to the man they disdained and they just can’t stop the habit of sniping at him. This is the campaign that never ended, and the attacks would continue whether or not they are reasonable or morally justified.

    “That the PDP is in disarray after its calamitous electoral performance is to be expected. The scope of the debacle is such that the party which has been in power for an unbroken 16-year stretch would be would be psychologically damaged for a long time.

    “In Abuja, national chairman Ahmadu Muazu and members of his National Working Committee (NWC) are exchanging brickbats with aides and associates of President Goodluck Jonathan over the defeat while crossing swords with governors who want them sacked.

    “The savage in-fighting that has already kicked off is not going to disappear just because a committee has been appointed to examine why the party did poorly at the polls. Peace will only come when one of the factions contending for the soul of the party prevails.

    “Although there’s no unanimity as to the best way forward most members agree that PDP has to reinvent itself. But that isn’t going to happen until the party understands where it went wrong. The reactions of some of its leaders – from President Jonathan who’s already dreaming of PDP’s speedy return to power in 2019 to Muazu who’s been bragging about transforming into a vicious attack dog who will give the All Progressives Congress (APC) government nightmares – shows they still don’t get it.

    “Their comments and those of their camp followers on the internet show that their understanding of their new opposition role ends with lobbing criticism and invective at every move of the incoming lot and their leader, Buhari. It was that sort of woolly-headed thinking that inspired the hate campaign strategy that backfired spectacularly of March 28 and April 11.”

    Interestingly, the Muazu referred to in that piece has since defected to the APC. He is not alone; many of the party’s other leaders in the north have done the same in the last four years – further weakening it in a region where it desperately needed rejuvenation.

    As for reinventing itself, the PDP has remained largely the same – making it easy for its opponents to successfully hang all sorts of negative tags on it.

    Anyone who followed the party’s 2019 presidential campaign would have been astounded by the incoherent messaging. Initially, I thought it was going to revolve round the question: ‘Are you better off today than you were four years ago?’

    That singular focus on the economic struggles of Nigerians is something people from every region could have related to. But rather than make an effective case for changing the APC regime on this ground, the party quickly lapsed into its tried-and-failed abuse strategy.

    Its name-calling and attempts to label Buhari as corrupt and dictatorial failed to gather traction. A reputation built over a lifetime wasn’t going to be undone by one month of electoral mudslinging – especially when sensational claims were not backed with credible evidence.

    It was Atiku and the PDP’s misfortune that they were running against Buhari. Although they revile him, they should have been more dispassionate in analysing his strengths and perhaps come to more modest expectations for the 2019 polls.

    The president is one of those unusual political figures who emerge once in a generation. He is the only Nigerian politician who has attracted unwavering backing from followers across a region for more than a decade. He is very much a figure in the mould of the late Obafemi Awolowo in terms of his charisma.

    Beyond his much-vaunted honesty, his appeal is hard to place. He’s not popular because of any known ideological beliefs. All he needs to do is raise a clenched fist and a stadium full of delirious supporters would be baying ‘Sai Baba! Sai Buhari!’

    Despite the economic challenges of the past four years, arising from the recession and the slow recovery process, his popularity has astonishingly held up in his traditional strongholds. This wasn’t down to ethnic solidarity because he was up against another northerner unlike in 2015.

    Against this unusual opponent, the best the PDP could throw up was Atiku. But the strongest PDP candidate was also one who came with substantial negative baggage. It was easy for the ruling APC to define him as the graft-challenged alternative to their pristine candidate. Such was his problem with this tag that even his eventual entry into the US after 12 years – rather than being a help – further reinforced the notion of a man with a problem.

    People enjoyed a few laughs over Buhari’s serial gaffes during campaign stops, but there was no comment more damaging than when Atiku proudly announced to an audience of business leaders in Lagos that he would ‘enrich his friends.’ Whatever he actually meant by that loaded statement, it was a gift joyfully received by APC influencers to further paint him as someone who was only in government for what he could corner.

    Atiku and the PDP just didn’t make a good enough case for regime change and that’s why they lost. From the outset they never outlined a convincing path to victory, preferring instead to hang on to the vain belief that Buhari’s support had collapsed across the country.

    The only way the opposition could have won was to break up Buhari’s base up north. Atiku failed to deliver that and just like in 2015, they were punished across the region. PDP didn’t need help across the southern zones. The party’s candidate – a northerner – should just hold up his hand and take responsibility.

  • State of the Nation: Governorship election: How States will vote

    Political analyst and Sunday Editor of The Nation Newspapers, Festus Eriye, joined by Senior Correspondent Dare Odufowokan to discuss how states will vote at 2019 governorship and state assembly election.