The Nation Newspaper

Category: Dele Agekameh

  • Leah Sharibu’s ordeal

    Last Tuesday, Leah Sharibu, the only remaining captive of the 110 girls abducted in February 2018, from their school in Dapchi, Yobe State, turned 16 years old.  It was with tears that her family marked her 15th birthday last May, after their Christian daughter’s courageous stand against members of the Islamic State in the West African Province (ISWAP), an offshoot of the dreaded Boko Haram insurgents. Leah refused to convert to Islam, even after her Muslim schoolmates were released, following some negotiations with the Nigerian government. One year after, Leah and her family find themselves in the same position as her last birthday. But this time, there is even more concern about the commitment of the government towards her release from captivity.

    Since the kidnap of about 276 girls from their school in Chibok, Borno State in 2014, there has been increasing awareness of the activities of the insurgents in the northeast. The global effort to secure the release of those girls saw the leaders of powerful countries like the United States, United Kingdom, France and many others lend their voice to the campaign.

    It is thought that the pressure and support of world leaders, and the exceptional commitment of members of the Bring Back Our Girls (BBOG) coalition, moved the government to negotiate the release of some of the kidnapped Chibok girls in May of 2017. The whereabouts of about 112 of the Chibok girls is still unknown to the public, more than 1,500 days after heir abduction. Similar pressure led to the release of the Dapchi girls (and one boy) in March of last year. All except Leah.

    Moved by concern for the plight of the teenager, Nigerians and people around the world have not let up on their pressure on the government to secure her release. Last Tuesday, on the occasion of her 16th birthday, there were demonstrations in Lagos, Abuja, Adamawa and other Nigerian states. Organised demonstrations took place in the US and in London, UK, including one involving David Linden, MP, the Member of Parliament for Glasgow, who shares the same birthday with Leah. Protests and demonstrations had earlier been organized on the one-year anniversary of her abduction in February of this year.

    The success of negotiations in some of the past cases makes government failure in Leah’s case exceptionally heartbreaking, especially for her family. Added to that, the popularity she has now acquired through her defiance may have also made her case exceptional in the eyes of her captors. ISWAP had issued a final ultimatum for her life in September, 2018. However, even though two aid workers also abducted by the group were executed that month, Leah was spared, and declared as a lifetime slave to the group, alongside Alice Loksha Ngaddah, another aid worker.

    The government, on its part, continues to give assurances to Nigerians and Leah’s family that all will be done to secure her release. The reassurances may not be enough, since the group holding Leah is known and there are channels for negotiations between the government and the group. Nigerians cannot imagine why there has been no breakthrough in whatever efforts are being made to secure Leah’s release. Nobody wants to see the teenage girl mark a third birthday in captivity. Leah’s case is a national tragedy, and it has become a focal point for religious bodies of the Christian faith, including the Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN. Because of the circumstances of this case, if the government cannot find a way out for Leah soon, her continued captivity may encourage divisive comments, which may have already begun to be expressed.

    As we hope for Leah’s freedom, we watch on the news the display of true dedication and commitment to the welfare of citizens, by other countries. Two weeks ago, a French rescue operation was launched in Burkina Faso, to free two French tourists that had been kidnapped by an Al-Qaeda linked group in the West African country. The operation was successful, but at the cost of the lives of two of the French soldiers that took part in the operation. An extra two captives, one American and one South Korean were also freed.

    Although the West has always drummed the “no negotiation with terrorists” mantra, it is suspected, and confirmed in some cases, that this has been done in the past. In the case of the French tourists in Burkina Faso, intelligence gathering enabled the French commandos to track the kidnappers for some days before the operation was approved. The hostages were held for only about seven days. Therefore, our response to the attacks and kidnappings in Nigeria needs to be timely. The more days Leah spends in captivity, the harder it becomes to secure her freedom.

    The lesson in the French rescue is the commitment to do everything necessary to secure the release of the hostages. If the French authorities had waited for ransom to be demanded and paid, there was a risk that executions may have happened first, to make a statement. And it could have endangered French people around the world, who would become a money-making business in the eyes of terrorists.

    Whether or not the Nigerian government has paid ransom for the release of some of the girls that have been freed from captivity in the past couple of years, there is a greater duty to deter the act outright. We should not create a kidnapping business for terrorists within Nigeria’s borders through financial and other concessions to the terrorists. It is worse when the terrorists pick and choose who to release, and under what conditions, as in Leah’s case.

    Again, one must return to the question of political will. In the history of this country, the will to effect an outcome has been displayed in the past, even where the country did not have the expertise and training to handle the operation on its own. One recalls the case of Umaru Dikko, a government official that went on exile after the military coup of 1983. Nigeria acquired the services of Isreali Mossad operatives to force Dikko back to the country. He was ‘tagged and bagged’ (labelled “diplomatic baggage” in a sealed crate) and about to be loaded unto a plane before British customs foiled the operation at the airport.

    Co-incidentally, the Head-of-State at the time is now president today. He has acquired a reputation for dogged pursuit of objectives he his committed to. All Nigerians now ask is for a display of the same level of commitment the president has shown in the past to be applied to the matter of Leah’s freedom. Success will go beyond securing a young Nigerian girl’s release, which should be enough inspiration. It will also be a statement of intent by the government to put a stop to any form of profiteering with the lives of Nigerians.

    As the country continues to keep vigil for Leah, we all must ensure that the focus on her freedom remains paramount, without letting ethnic and religious sentiments move the discourse in other areas that may trigger divisive utterances  and actions. No matter what happens, Leah Sharibu has already conquered her captors in the eyes of the world, and this should give the Nigerian government the impetus to conquer the hate and division that her captors wish to spread in their campaign of death and destruction. It can begin with securing Leah’s freedom.

    This column joins Nigerians of all faiths in prayers for the safe return of Leah to her family. The smallest and youngest in our midst are capable of great feats and inspiring great causes. Malala Yousafzai is a leading example in this regard, and her story is not so far off from the one now building around Leah. Little David in the Bible achieved his victory against Goliath with a small pebble. These girls have done so with a little belief and courage. Like David, their lives have already become an inspiration. May the God that delivered Malala deliver Leah back to us.

  • Wake-up call for southwest

    Last week, travellers on the Ibadan-Ife-Akure expressway were accosted by bandits who attacked, injured and robbed people while shooting sporadically. Also, in what appears to be a separate incident on the road that same day, one professor from the Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospital, OAUTH, was abducted. The incidents have brought a chilling cold running through the spine of many of us who are used to travelling on that road.

    This column remembers, with nostalgia, those days in the late 70s and early 80s when one could move on that road at any time of the day, even at the dead of the night, without fear that bandits could strike. Students of the University of Ife, as it was then called, would cram into cars or get on their heavy-duty motor bikes and leave the campus for parties in Ibadan, Ondo or Ilesha by midnight, to return to campus in the wee hours of the morning without hassle. But not anymore.

    But the robberies and kidnappings on that route did not start last week. On June 30, 2009, Prince Dotun Layade, a building engineer and chairman of Dotlay Engineering Company, based in Ibadan, Oyo State, met his untimely death on that road. He had left his base in Ibadan in the evening of that fateful day, on his way to Igbinedion University, Okada, Edo State, where he was supervising the construction of some buildings. Unfortunately, he ran into a road block mounted by some bandits along the Ife-Ilesha-Akure stretch of the road. He was kidnapped along with some of the people in his entourage and taken away into the thick forest. One thing led to another and, Dotlay, as he was fondly called by his admirers, gave up the ghost in the forest while being ruthlessly tortured by his captors. Of course, not knowing what next to do, his captors fled the scene. His body was later found by a search party after his driver raised the alarm.

    Since then, it has been one gory tale of man’s inhumanity to man as kidnappers and robbers intermittently carry out their nefarious business along that route. About a month ago, a senior lecturer with the Rufus Giwa Polytechnic, Owo, met his death along that route. Onukaba Adinoyi-Ojo, a journalist and former managing director of Daily Times Newspapers also died on that road a few years ago. It is apparent that the innocence of that road in the past has been violated. The situation is also made worse by the bad state of the road, which slows speeding vehicles and helps the criminals in their nefarious activities.

    How many more Nigerians must fall victim before a solution is found to the menace of the bandits on that road and other roads in this country?  At the launch of “Operation Puff Adder” organised in Osogbo by Leye Oyebade, the newly posted Assistant Inspector General of Police, AIG, Gboyega Oyetola, the governor of Osun State, had hinted that intelligence reports reaching him indicate that the bandits terrorising Zamfara State and the Northwest had started sneaking into Osun State and other contiguous states. Nobody needs a soothsayer to prove that any more.

    What happened last Sunday is a pointer to the fact that the Southwest may very well be under invasion. A source who lives on that axis confirmed that they have been witnessing suspicious movement along that corridor in recent times. According to the source, truckloads of people suspected to be Fulanis, Malians or Nigeriens, are usually seen passing-by at night, heading to Ilesha or Ibadan. The professor, Olayinka Adegbehingbe, who was earlier kidnapped last week but has now been released after a ransom was paid, also claimed his abductors were of Fulani origin. Although one cannot attest to the veracity of the profiling or linguistic knowledge of the victims, their accounts are in line with recent news and observations about the movement of the bandits along that route.

    For anyone that thinks that the scale of insecurity in this country tips towards the north, there is news for them – we are all in the eye of the storm. The whole country is now engulfed in widespread killings, kidnappings, violent robberies and all manner of evil, and there is no sacred place or sacred cow. Anyone can be violated anywhere and at any time. Army generals, community leaders, lawmakers, professors, foreigners and ordinary Nigerians are fair game in the pool of insecurity the country appears to be sinking into.

    Violent crime in this country is becoming a hot venture, with criminal ‘upstarts’ quickly mushrooming and replicating across the country. In the real business world, this kind of boom is only possible in an enabling environment.  So the authorities need to ask themselves how the status-quo is enabling violent criminals to flourish in all corners of the country. Even local and foreign aid workers are being kidnapped and killed while our top security officials are afraid to travel on our roads. The country has also been struggling to attract investors. But how do we protect their investments and that of the existing investors in the country?

    Mohammed Adamu, the energetic Inspector General of Police, IGP, has said that the police force is under-staffed and under-equipped, and as such, cannot realistically contain the insecurity that pervades in the country. Government strategy has been to utilize the military and to form multi-agency security task forces, which sometimes, includes ordinary citizens and local hunters with their dane-guns. However, even this has proven to be inadequate to contain the insecurity. It means that the combination of our security forces and volunteer civilians has failed against the marauding bandits and terrorists parading more sophisticated weapons all over the place.

    It is often said that, in times of peace, it is advisable to stock up on arms to boost the security capability of a country. This country has not seen peace for decades. The equipment that materialise from the little funds that actually trickles down to bolster security are immediately deployed in fighting terrorists, bandits, armed robbers, hostile protesters, and periodically, election ‘troublemakers’, not to mention equipment lost during attacks by the same criminals. As such, there is never enough. Finding recruits for security agencies is also most difficult in times of war, which is why there are war-time drafts. With the many civilian JTFs, it already appears like we are doing just that.

    If one is to tell it as it is, the accounts of the attack on the Ibadan-Ife-Akure expressway last week shows that our wildest fears are coming true. Criminal elements are setting-up interstate networks that may be too hard to contain if those in authority sleep on their duty. Without intending to be divisive or stir emotions, it is a security breach of the greatest proportions for kidnappers and robbers of other tribes or nationalities, who constitute themselves into an army of bandits, to be terrorising people all over the place.

    This is why the leaders of the southwest must come together to device strategies to prevent the zone from being turned into another theatre of war by these migrating bandits. Unfortunately, some of the leaders, especially the traditional rulers, are currently engaged in supremacy war amongst themselves. They need to wake up to their real responsibilities. Many of these bandits invariably live among the people, and as such, with concerted effort, they can be identified and exposed. It is a time for vigilance, for security agencies and ordinary citizens alike. We cannot allow ourselves to be overrun by bandits. Countries that let their security apparatus to be dismantled in the way we seem to be going almost never recover.

    We cannot erect walls between states and regions, as the strength of this country is in our unity in diversity. However, answers to questions of security begin at the local level, which is why many of us have criticised our northern leaders for so long, even as we sympathised with the innocent victims of their inaction or irresponsibility. One hopes that indolence does not become a national leadership quality. A stitch in time saves nine.

  • Zainab’s case as eye opener

    For ardent practitioners of the different faiths in Nigeria’s religious landscape, there are sacred rites that sometimes take the faithful outside the country on journeys to holy sites around the world in adherence to religious duty or personal fulfillment. While the Christians go to Jerusalem in Israel, Muslim faithful converge in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, periodically. The mindset of worshippers at these times is often one of sober reflection, in preparation for communion with God.

    However, one Muslim student on a religious trip to Saudi Arabia in December 2018 got a rather rude awakening by law enforcement officials in Saudi Arabia. Zainab Aliyu, a student of Maitama Sule University in Kano state was arrested at a hotel in Medinah on December 26, 2018, for a drug related offence. The shock and dismay of the girl and her family was more painful because, as we now know, the young girl was completely innocent of the matter.

    During Zainab’s four-month stay in detention in Saudi Arabia, her father, who is a journalist, the rest of her family and even the people of Kano and elsewhere in Nigeria frantically made efforts to ensure her release. The penalty for drug offences in Saudi Arabia is death, and Saudi Arabia traditionally executes people by beheading. Many Nigerians have already suffered that fate, including one woman, very recently.

    In the middle of the social media campaigns, street protests and calls to the authorities in Nigeria and Saudi Arabia by Zainab’s family, an even more shocking and sickening discovery was made by the authorities in Nigeria. A syndicate of drug pushers was discovered at the Aminu Kano International Airport in Kano, from where Zainab flew into Saudi Arabia. Part of the modus operandi of the syndicate is the planting of drugs in the luggage of unsuspecting travellers, or addition of strange bags into the luggage of the travellers. This was how the Tramadol, a banned drug in Saudi Arabia, was found in the luggage checked in under Zainab’s name. The issue then remained for Nigeria to convince the Saudis with all the evidence and developments in the case, that Zainab was indeed innocent.

    For once, the machinery of state was effective, with Abike Dabiri-Erewa, the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Foreign Affairs and Diaspora, confirming orders from the president himself for a quick resolution of the matter. In the end, Zainab was released on April 30, while another individual arrested in similar circumstances, 74-year old Ibrahim Abubakar, was also released the next day.

    For Zainab, she was not abandoned by God or her country and family. As such, hers is a bitter-sweet tale that we can all feel proud about. But there is no telling the number of individuals who may have lost their lives to the activities of the syndicate in Aminu Kano airport and other airports in Nigeria, whose cries of innocence would have been ignored by foreign officials or even scoffed at by family and friends.

    Even with the happy ending in Zainab’s case, there is clearly a dangerous game going on at our airports, as we are now beginning to see. Confessions of similar tactics being used at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport and other places are now beginning to come up. As in the Aminu Kano case, the syndicates usually involve officers from customs, immigration, the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) and staff of the Nigerian Aviation Handling Company (NAHCO). It is a pure evil operation, no matter which way one looks at it. Slipping extraneous materials into a person’s assumed possession is bad enough, but when those materials are hard drug substances, on a flight to a country where drug offences carry the capital punishment, then one may have reached the pinnacle of wickedness.

    Aviation industry professionals profess that this type of wickedness has been going on for years. Even when not related to drugs, it has been revealed that merchants who do not care for the hassles of travel, or of arranging freight or cargo shipments, simply bribe airport officials who have in the past attached up to 40 bags of materials, though not drug related, to the luggage of unsuspecting travellers. Without knowing it, people have been mules for all kinds of things, legal and illegal, based on the corruption of airport officials in Nigeria and possibly other countries too. It is said that the baggage handlers at airports are the most dangerous in this criminal line, as they can literally open passenger’s bags and slip in foreign substances, with a pre-arranged way to retrieve them at the destination.

    The government has to take these emerging facts really seriously. The fact that this has been going on for years is shameful, because these wicked cartels must have been caught in the act previously for their tactics to be so known within the industry. Yet, no safeguards are seen to have been made in this respect. The officials in the Kano airport who have already been arrested should be made scape-goats and should suffer exemplary punishment for their wickedness, as a deterrent to others. One remembers the time of President Buhari’s first coming in military uniform, when drug offences were made punishable by death. In 1984, Bartholomew Owoh, Bernard Ogedengbe and Lawal Ojuolape were publicly executed by firing squad in what was a retroactive application of the penalty. Following public outcry, the penalty was changed to life imprisonment in 1986.

    While one cannot in good conscience advocate the return of capital punishment for drug related offences in 2019, there is a real desire for members of these cartels to suffer the highest punishment. While remembering the three men that were victims of the retroactive capital punishment in 1984, it is safe to say that the public outcry would have been much less if those involved in incriminating Zainab were the ones facing the barrels of the soldiers’ guns. The Saudi officials too must have had their doubts because Zainab was not charged for the offence all through the time she was in detention. With the resolution of the matter now, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia would be seeking extradition of the people involved, especially as some are officials of the Nigerian state. Otherwise, it would have been very satisfying to have them face the gauntlet themselves.

    The administration of our airports and seaports has been built around mind-boggling corruption, perpetrated by petty profiteers and major criminal syndicates alike. The bubble of corruption is so thick and resistant to change that any attempts to improve transparency and safety is put through cost-benefit analysis of the corrupt system and undermined or totally quenched. As this can only be done at the highest levels, it suggests complicity of high ranking government officials in some of the illegal activities.

    This may explain why we don’t have better security scanners at our airports or a more robust search procedure that protects passengers and the image of the country. Officials posted to airports and seaports are mindful only of the opportunity to profit from the posting, which involves accepting bribes to look the other way while the lives of many Zainabs out there are put in danger for no fault of their own.  If this happens at the airports, one can only imagine to what degree it is taking place at the seaports and the ‘amorphous’ illegal routes.

    Finding a solution to these problems would take a radical overhaul of the system. Such a measure must include swift and severe prosecution and punishment for collaborators. It should also involve better pay for officials, improved funding for security and training of officials and limiting the number of personnel involved in the checking process at sea and airports, in favour of more automated means. None of it will be easy though. But a commitment to positive change and proper planning in the circumstances cannot be defeated by the corrupt interests who depend on anonymity. Needless to say, passengers, especially at airports, must also be extra vigilant.  May God help us all.

  • Zamfara: The gold ‘armada’

    In the past couple of months, Zamfara State and most of the northwest, has been in the news for distressing reasons. Killings, kidnappingsand destruction of property have been ongoing in the region for some years, and the violence has now reached a level at which the government can no longer soft pedal in its response to the mayhem. The bandits responsible for the killings have been linked to the lucrative trade in gold that has somehow quietly thrived in the northwest for decades, especially in Zamfara. In the ensuing outrage at the insecurity now prevalent in Zamfara and the northwest, some of the criticisms have highlightedthe opportunity for GDP growth and development of the region that has been lost to the largely underground trade in gold.

    On October 1, 1996, the late General Sani Abacha effected a placatory creation of states to stem criticisms of the military government during his regime, thereby adding six states to Nigeria’s total of 30 at the time. One of the six states created was Zamfara, carved out of the already existing Sokoto State (formerly part of the old “Northwestern State”), in which mining of minerals had been taking place since the early 1900s. The Second World War interrupted the mining activities of the colonialists in northern Nigeria, and the industry was further crippled by the discovery of oil. Thus, exploring of mineral resources in the new state quickly took a back bench, especially when oil prices began to rise in early 2000s, during the commodities boom.

    As oil prices peaked sometime in 2008 and began to drop, the demand for gold and other solid minerals was on the rise. When word got out, the mostly farming communities in Zamfara State and around the northwest, who had been involved in some artisanal mining, began to drop their farming tools for small-scale mining instruments. Artisanal gold mining in Zamfara State and others picked up at a frantic pace, with renewed government interest also reflected in the Nigerian Minerals and Mining Act of 2007. Small players in the international gold trade like Australian Mines and Savannah Gold were also on ground to cash in.

    But what triggered this violence in the region? Although the occurrence of gold and solid minerals in the northwest had not (and still has not) been properly mapped, new mining licenses and activities were impeded by new settlements along formerly identified gold-rich areas. The transmission of landed interest from traditional systems of ownership also posed a threat that was not properly handled by the government. Therefore, the artisanal gold miners formed themselves into cooperatives that sought to dominate mining activities in each area.

    The interests of the cooperatives soon clashed with that of legal and illegal local and foreign players in the gold mining industry, and government reaction remained almost non-existent. As such, as in all things where a vacuum of authority exists, private and ruthless players soon emerged to fill the void, infiltrating the cooperatives and other groups and encouraging the saturation of arms. As such, the violence relating to gold mining began.

    While the activity was getting increasingly dangerous, the frenzy of amateur mining by former farmers looking for a big score, without proper instruments and training, also led to another unintended consequence – an outbreak of lead poisoning, especially amongst children below five years of age.  The outbreak, which was most severe in Bagega, Zamfara State, was considered the worst outbreak of lead poisoning in modern history. It took the intervention of international agencies and civil society for funds running into millions of dollars to slowly reach communities and health professionals in fighting the outbreak. By the time any real help reached the communities, about 500 children had died between 2009-2013, with about 3500 more in danger.

    Even with the growing violence, and after surviving a lead-poisoning epidemic, mining operations in Zamfara and its north-western neighbours did not receive enough government attention. The efforts of the government to attract more investors was frustrated by the relatively low proven deposits of gold in relation to neighbouring African countries like Ghana, whose proven deposits is said to be 10 times the size of Nigeria’s. Other limiting circumstances include the insurgency in the North which discourages investors. The oil industry’s domination of the economy and the media also ensured that the rest of the country, with the exception of those in the business ofmineral resources and commodities generally, were largely ignorant of the dangerous but thriving trade in gold in Zamfara and the northwest.

    The violence in Zamfara and the northwest increased in the past two years, coinciding with the resurgence of the activities of insurgents in the northeast and the new spread of bloody attacks between well-armed cattle herdsmen and farming communities. Some have made connections between these security threats and the banditry. The so-called bandits razed villages probably to free potential mining spots, while cattle rustling, especially in Zamfara, also increased. According to reports, illegally mined gold is draped around the rustled cattle and passed through mostly unrestricted borders into neighbouring countries like Niger Republic, where they are traded, for onward transmission to end markets like the United Arab Emirates. Nigeria gains nothing in this underground trade.

    The economic loss inherent in the violent illegal mining of gold has been a major concern for some, alongside the loss of lives and property. The economic discontent mostly comes from southern Nigeria, which has often decried the poor contribution of the north to the economy. For instance, the lucrative cattle trade which has caused widespread violence across Nigeria is said to be so poorly monitored and taxed that the huge profits are lost to the northern shadow economy that his controlled by the North’s elites. It now appears that gold mining falls in the same category, even as other regions bear the strain of the national economy.

    In response to the increased violence in northwest and elsewhere in the country, all mining activities have now been suspended, and Mohammed Adamu, the Inspector General of Police, has announced the activation of “Operation Puff Adder” in the country, to combat banditry and kidnapping all over the country. The military has also stepped up its offensive in the northwest, hinting at the connivance of traditional rulers in the mayhem that has gripped the region. The veiled accusation by the military led to counter-accusations, by some traditional rulers, of civilian deaths after a military air-raid, only for the traditional rulers to recant their claims in suspicious and unclear terms.

    What to do? With emerging reports of collaboration between the bandits and traditional rulers in the northwest, which includes reports of social interaction with known bandits at celebrations hosted by some traditional rulers in that region, the picture of how the illegal trade has been sustained for so long is becoming clearer. Rumours of the alleged involvement of influential northern elites have also been rife, in explaining the downplaying of the violence that has gripped Zamfara and other places for so long.

    If the rumours and reports are true, about high level complicity in the mayhem tearing through the northwest, then the innocents in that region and the country as a whole have been dealt a wicked hand by the greedy masterminds of the terror. The gold-inspired violence in Zamfara and the Northwest is a multi-layer problem that combines issues of the economy, insecurity, border-control, regional hegemony and politics. Any government response must factor in each of these issues for it to be robust and efficient. The government must also act fast, as there is a danger that the gold-rustling bandits may spread to other gold-rich areas outside the northwest, like Osun State.

    Nigeria’s non-oil mineral resources are a vast treasure trove of potential economic activity that can bring real returns if given the attention that oil and gas enjoys today. The creation of an NNPC equivalent for solid minerals, which has been canvassed in the past, may not be a bad place to start. As always, the ball is in the hands of the government, and one hopes it does not drop the ball as it has done on security all over the country.

  • A season of ‘banditry’

    For nearly a decade, the intensity of the Boko Haram insurgency has surged and waned in Northeast, between periods of keen military action and times of almost criminal negligence by the government. Also, in the last five years, the long suppressed threat of conflict between farming communities and cattle herdsmen took a deadly turn nationwide, and the terror of ‘killer herdsmen’ swept across Nigeria. Now, while the country is reeling from the damage to nationhood and livelihood that these two evils have brought, there is yet another scourge of terror tearing through Northwest. This time, the perpetrators have been labelled “bandits”.

    In the Northwest, particularly in Zamfara State, there have been gun-toting marauders wreaking havoc on communities for unclear reasons. There is no single or clear agenda to their madness. It is reported that over 100 lives were lost to the rampage of the so-called bandits in Zamfara in 2018. For instance, on December 19, 2018, suspected bandits attacked three separate communities in BirninMagaji Local Government Area of Zamfara State, killing at least 25 people.  The turn of the year saw the situation deteriorate further, with the attacks seemingly taking on fresh fervour, necessitating a revamped military and security campaign against the bandits.

    As the military offensive intensified, it is believed that some of the bandits fled to other north-western states like Sokoto and Katsina, where they have been engaged in mindless attacks and kidnapping. In February, it was reported that members of a vigilante group lost their lives in open confrontation with the bandits in Raba Local Government Area of Sokoto State, after a round of attacks by the bandits. According to media reports, the police spokesperson asked people in the affected areas to “keep their fingers crossed” as the police is doing all it can.

    Having endured many months of seeming ‘occupation’ by the so-called bandits and the inadequate security response by the government, the people of Zamfara were at their wits end on Tuesday, April 2, when members of what is called the Civilian Joint Task Force from a community in KauraNamoda Local Government Area of the state marched into the forest hideout of the bandits to engage the bandits. According to the Speaker of the Zamfara State House of Assembly, over 50 persons were killed in that clash. The desperate assault by the civilians caused the military to step up their efforts, through air raids and ground assaults that have caused the bandits to abandon their hideouts and mix with the civilian population.

    After the military raids, the people cried out through media reports that the bandits had abandoned their hideouts and were walking about with arms in broad day light amongst the ordinary people, with the alleged help of some civilian collaborators. It seems like a change in strategy, to prevent air raids by blending in with the local population. The confidence of the bandits is indicative of a region now saturated with arms of all kinds, for civilian vigilantes and the so-called bandits alike. Meanwhile, on April 9, some of the suspected  bandits that had fled to Katsina razed buildings and killed indiscriminately in Sabuwa and Batsari local Government Areas of the state, causing Mohammed Adamu, Acting-Inspector General of Police, IGP, to visit the areas.

    In this sordid tale of mayhem and carnage that stretches all the way to Kaduna, and also with the kidnappings on the Abuja-Kaduna expressway and elsewhere in the country, there seems to be a real security crisis on our hands, and one could have made this statement at any time in the past 10 years in Nigeria. The country appears to be in a bubble of insecurity that seems resistant to all remedies. Not even the tears of governors and senators from the northeast and northwest have inspired any enduring solution. Benue and Taraba are still hot from continued communal clashes after the violence was likely momentarily diverted into election conflict. Just last Sunday, there were beheadings on the streets of Ajah, in Lagos State. Nigerians no more feel safe.

    While the military is doing its bit with the resources it has in fighting the bandits, it faces strong criticism and near opposition by some traditional rulers in the Northwest. The native leaders claim that air-force jets are bombing innocent people, while the military has hinted on the involvement of some traditional rulers with the bandits. This difference of opinion could have been settled by evidence garnered from good intelligence gathering, but like in our other internal  ‘wars’ against terror, there is a serious lack in that department.

    The menace of the bandits has also brought to light, the threat posed by the seemingly underground mining and trade in precious stones that are going on in the Northwest. This dimension is already causing ripples nationally. It is thought by some that the banditry is not unrelated to the activities of illegal miners who had armed themselves in an increasingly dangerous trade in that region. Others think that the banditry has little or nothing to do with the mining activities. That there are many desperate men with guns is unfortunately, a real and present danger, in any case.

    The saturation of arms in the country generally has been linked to many things, some tracing the origins as far back as the civil war. A more current source has been traced, by analysts, to the activities of politicians who procure arms to distribute to local thugs as part of preparation for elections. With the excess of guns and desperate men for hire in the fallout of conflict in Libya and other places, and with our porous borders, anyone with sinister plans has little difficulty in smuggling arms into the country. The problem may begin there, but continues when the “principals” of the now armed thugs have achieved their aim. The guns and the men remain, left to their own devices.

    The security issues bring to question, again, the best model for securing our communities, rural and urban. Community policing is a tried and tested model and the rise of vigilante groups and the many “Civilian Joint Task Forces” is already indicative of a natural gravitation towards that solution. When communities are forced to form unofficial vigilante groups in the face of governmental inefficiency, the results have not always been good. The excesses of the Oodua People’s Congress, Bakassi boys and many more examples show how they can go rogue or become ethnic militias.

    Several theories have been advanced for the poor state of security in the country today. The fact is that many of the “major” security problems we now face have only now burst into the open after bubbling beneath the surface, unchecked, for too long. Our authorities have displayed a serious lack of foresight in dealing with security challenges, and the lack of local, pro-active andmulti-institutional collaborativeeffort is at the root of the problem. The security council should not be convened in Abuja for internal and local threats, but should be done at state or community level.

    The rise of the militant warfare between Boko Haram and Nigerian troops could have been halted if long term consequences were discussed between security agents and moderate religious leaders at local level. The bloody and widespread communal clashes that gave rise to the “killer herdsmen” could have been avoided if the impacts of climate change, population surge and land rights could have been viewed through a local security lens. The banditry that has now gripped the Northwest is not a situation that suddenly happened overnight. Men with guns do not just appear in forests.

    We cannot continue to ascribe military solution to every threat within our borders, when communities, through the police, are in the best position to develop security plans for protecting themselves. State policing should advance from the stage of idea and discussion and become a reality in Nigeria. Only at the state level can smaller communities organize into security units and departments. We cannot continue in ignorance. We must halt the dangerous drift towards a failed state.

  • Again, xenophobia in South Africa

    Fresh attacks on black foreigners have, once more, unearthed the cankerworm of xenophobia in South Africa. In the latest spate of attacks, which began around the end of March, black foreigners in Brits, located in North West province and Durban, located in Kwazulu-Natal province of South Africa have faced hostilities by locals. The hostility has been aimed at persons and their businesses, in the same pattern of attacks that have become a regular occurrence in South Africa since 2008. Nationals of many African countries have had to seek refuge in police stations.

    The widespread violence that erupted in South Africa in 2015 is still fresh in our memories, when a particularly bloody wave of xenophobia enveloped South Africa, after divisive remarks by Zulu King, Goodwill Zwelithini, stirred racial sentiments amongst the black population. The attackers have always cited competition for jobs and incursion of criminals from other parts of Africa as reasons for their xenophobic outbursts against black foreigners in the country. The Nigerians in South Africa have been severally accused as being behind majority of the activities that fuel the attacks, with places like the notorious Hillbrow area of Johannesburg fingered as the den of “Nigerian criminals”.

    The Nigerian government has said that hundreds of Nigerians have been killed in South Africa in the past few years alone. On March 15, South African authorities confirmed that a 44-year old Nigerian man was killed in eastern Pretoria, and a manhunt was launched for the man’s killers. Despite the repeated attacks and killings of Nigerians and other African nationals in the country, the hostility has never been contained. The attacks have continued, sometimes with the alleged complicity of South African police and even public figures, as in 2015.

    The response of the Nigerian government has always been measured, and many would say, ineffective so far. What we have on our hands is a crisis which could trigger retaliatory attacks all over Africa. The governments of African countries like Nigeria, Malawi, Zimbabwe and others, who are usually caught up in the xenophobic episodes, have been too soft on their South African counterparts. Finding a lasting solution to the severe anti-African sentiments that bubbles beneath the surface amongst the black population has now become a matter of great serious concern to all.

    On April 1, South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, condemned the latest attacks, reminding his countrymen of the sacrifice of African countries towards the struggle against apartheid in South Africa. His message can pass for an “April fool” joke because the president himself has been credited with statements that could have incensed the xenophobic sentiments. It is also clear that the election season rhetoric amongst South African political leaders, has stirred up those ugly sentiments. Black foreigners are the usual scapegoats for the high level of crime and economic strife suffered by the lowest rung of the South African society.

    In decrying the targeted attacks on Nigerians and others in South Africa, one must also acknowledge that Nigeria has some bad eggs, all over the world, who have been giving the country a bad name. Just recently, there was news of the apprehension of five Nigerians who allegedly were involved in a daring robbery of a money exchange house in Sharjah, United Arab Emirates (U.A.E). Within the same period, news of the execution of a Nigerian woman in Saudi Arabia for drug related offences was still in the news. This led to a plea made by Abike Dabiri-Erewa, Senior Special Assistant to the president on Diaspora, for Nigerians to adopt good conduct when abroad. She said the woman executed in Saudi Arabia was the eighth Nigerian executed there in recent times, while another 20 are on death row in the kingdom. The image of the country is suffering a battering in many places. Even one of our closest neighbours, Ghana, recently deported scores of Nigerians who were reportedly subjected to inhumane treatment during the process.

    The trouble of wide-scale emigration from Nigeria is not a surprising thing when the country is struggling to provide basic amenities to a growing population. It is often said that the generation of Nigerians below 45 years of age, have never seen a stable Nigeria, without the dream-killing and suffocating lack that pervades every facet of life. As Nigerians go in search of better systems and opportunities in foreign countries, the hardworking and focused ones are quietly assimilated into their new environment without ceremony, while the antics of the bad crops are publicised and magnified until it becomes a smear on the image of the country.

    With the large population in Nigeria, the size of our emigrants is also substantial, especially in an under performing economy. The significant number of Nigerians migrating to other countries creates the impression that “Nigerians are taking over”. Thus, our size, which can be a strength, is working to our detriment in places like South Africa, where locals with xenophobic tendencies find the numbers of our countrymen uncomfortable, despite the advantages to their economy which may exist. Being the most identifiable African immigrants, because of their industry and numbers, Nigerians bear a great portion of the brunt of South Africa’s hatred.

    Without paying much attention to the high crime rate in South Africa, even in neighbourhoods predominantly populated by native South Africans, South African political leaders and authorities irresponsibly point at the African immigrants, through obvious accusations and subtle hints, and through inaction at times of xenophobic attacks. The weak response to the indolence of South African authorities is also a contributing factor that is, perhaps, the most unfortunate for the victims. Nigeria and other African countries need to explore all avenues available to pressure South African into taking responsibility and standing up to the dangerous fire of xenophobia burning within its borders. No better avenue than the African Union, AU, exists, for an open discussion and adoption of measures to protect Africans in South Africa.

    With the South African elections around the corner, there is a greater danger to Nigerians and other foreigners in this period. It will be wise for the Nigerian government to secure the assurances of the South Africans that there will be consequences for inciting violence against Nigerians and others. In a continent that requires greater collaboration than ever before in its history, this seemingly small matter of xenophobia in South Africa can lead to far greater consequences for African unity if it is not dealt with decisively. A few high profile prosecutions will go a long way to reassure African countries of South Africa’s commitment to peaceful co-existence, to which it has only paid lip-service so far.

    The great Nelson Mandela, that fine African that captured the hearts and minds of people all over the world, would be consumed by grief, if he could behold what some South Africans are doing today. He always sued for tolerance, peace and equality, even in dealing with South Africa’s former oppressors. His foresight saved South Africa from the fate of many African nations today, and he never lost sight of what a strong Africa could be in the world. South Africans need to be reminded of the example laid down by their most revered statesman. Particularly, the political leaders in South Africa need to remember the achievements of that visionary leader, which he earned through collaboration and tolerance.

    For Nigeria, the plight of our countrymen in these foreign countries should be an indicator of that popular saying: “there is no place like home”. Nigerians should not have to flee their homes in search of basic comforts in a foreign country. Also, for whatever reason that a Nigerian has left this country, the government’s duties for his or her safety is not extinguished by reason of the decision to seek a better life in another country. The government is responsible for the welfare of its citizens, wherever they may be. The truth is that we must get it right at home before our government can be composed enough to protect its citizens abroad. May God help us.

  • The shame of the police

    In the early morning of Wednesday, March 20, a senior officer of the National Security and Civil Defence Corps, NSCDC, was allegedly beaten to death by police officers in Nyanya, Abuja. His offence was that he made an illegal u-turn in his haste to drop his children at school. The pleadings for mercy by his wife could not dissuade the callous police officers from snuffing out life from the ‘offending’ NSCDC officer. One would think the early morning rush on a weekday is a time to let go of petty traffic offences, in the interest of free flow of traffic. One would also think that the presence of children and the fact of their pleading on behalf of their father would have struck a sympathetic nerve somewhere. Apparently, when dealing with policemen in Nyanya, one would be wrong.

    The incident narrated above reminds one of the dark days of the military era, when men were whipped silly in the presence of their families. In those days, the definition of dignity was qualified, and khaki was the symbol of supreme authority in every facet of life. Today, policemen that would not have been fit to eat at the same table with the khaki-clad ‘gods’ of those days have become a law unto themselves.

    Anyone trying to wrap their mind around the incident in Nyanyashould save themselves the stress. There is no understanding what would have driven the policemen to such outrage. However, what we do understand, as Nigerians, is that there is a serious failure of leadership in the police, one that has endured for many years, under many police chiefs and presidents.

    If this was a one-off incident, one would be inclined to accept it as an unfortunate mistake. But it is not. First, there is that irritating inter-agency rivalry between Nigeria’s security agencies that is on display quite frequently. It has led to violent clashes between the Police and NSCDC men, in particular, several times in the past. Even in the last elections, there were rumours of clashes between soldiers and policemen, in the course of trying to outdo each other in the questionable activities that went on during the elections. One cannot clearly say that this was a factor in the unfortunate incident on that fateful Wednesday, but we surely cannot put it past our mostly dishonorable men in black, who have become a terror to the people they are sworn to protect.

    Secondly, police brutality is something Nigerians deal with on a daily basis, and there are numerous examples. At the end of January, a video circulated online showing policemen in Benin dragging an unarmed man in the street before shooting him to death at point blank range. On Thursday, March 28, a motorcyclist was reportedly shot dead in similar circumstances by police officers in Kilo, Surulere in Lagos State, when the cyclist allegedly refused to part with N200 bribe during police “stop and search” operation in the area. Just this last Sunday, a 36 year old man was also reportedly killed by a police bullet in Mangoro area of Lagos, while at a football viewing center. The police had allegedly shot recklessly in a busy neighbourhood while attempting to arrest a totally different person.

    Every day, we hear cases of police brutality, with people getting abducted, beaten, robbed and killed for sometimes maddening reasons. Last year, when Nigerians were apparently fed up with the free reign of terror of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad, otherwise known as SARS, there was nationwide clamour for the dissolution of the notorious police unit. In response, Ibrahim Idris Kpotun, the controversial Inspector General of Police at the time, announced a series of ineffective reshuffles and a ‘federalisation’ of the unit which was reflected in a new name – Federal-SARS or F-SARS. The measure was cynical, as the vice-president’s directive that forced that lame reorganization was largely ignored. Still dressed like common thieves and thugs, SARS or F-SARS are still operating like they have a license to kill anybody at anytime.

    One explanation for the dearth of leadership in the police force is the politicization of promotions and appointments at the top hierarchy. The office of the Inspector General of Police, IGP, for instance, is the most insecure post in all uniformed services in the country. IGPs come and go frequently, usually leading to frequent, mass, compulsory retirement of senior police officers, either to create way for a political appointment or to clear the way for a new appointee to perform his true (political) assignment in the top police job.  The effect on the leadership structure is telling, such that the top officers can’t really get a grip of the force before being shuffled away into retirement. It also leads to the likelihood of insubordination.

    Like the SARS men have proven, where the personnel are rotten at heart, no change of name or declaration of new uniforms or other such cosmetic measures can lead to any real change in police attitudes, in their engagement with the public or in the performance of their core duty to protect the populace. Even though there are fine officers amidst the crop of misfits that wear the uniform, they seem to be widely outnumbered and their impact is seldom felt by the common man on the street. The locations of the extra-judicial killings by the police cited above are instructive, and it is replicated all over the country. It stresses the point that the best officers are either guarding VIPS or working beats in highbrow areas, where they know how to be careful and cautious in their dealings with the public. As such, there is a design to this ‘madness’.

    The present IGP, Mohammed Adamu, seems like one of the better officers that have taken up the post. Adamu’s credentials speak for themselves, having spent a long time working with Interpol where he rose to become Vice-President (Africa). Such a highly decorated officer being placed in charge of a mixed pot of good officers and misfits, coupled with the ever present politics, raises one’s curiosity. One hopes that he realizes the task before him and is able to rise to the challenge. In the mean time, as the news shows, the trigger happy and unruly officers are still at it and a stellar career as a police officer will not stop Adamu being bombarded by frustrated Nigerians if there is no noticeable change to the terror that has become the Nigeria Police.

    One suggestion, especially for the leadership of the police, is to have fixed tenures for IGPs, along with some extra level of decoupling of the powers of that office from executive control. Given the top cop free reign and security of tenure will afford dedicated officers the time and freedom to audit all units and squads and determine their efficiency and usefulness in the wider functions of the police. It will also help the chain of command and bring stability that will slowly trickle down the chain and force accountability on the boots on ground in the streets, who are the face of the police as far as the people are concerned.

    Right now, there is too much speculative reshuffling and reorganization within the police and it is not resonating with the poorly trained men at the bottom of the pile, who mostly think about how to profit from the authority their riffle commands. The orientation of the least ranking officers towards the public is still ‘obey without complain’. The reality is that people will complain, especially with the reputation of the police, and these men have no training to deal with that situation. Because they are poorly trained, they can’t take initiative, even when they are being used to carry out atrocious acts. It is a shame, one that Nigerians do not have to die for.

     

  • Elections in Nigeria

    After the collation of results in the gubernatorial and state assembly elections that held on March 9, the gubernatorial election results of six states – Bauchi, Sokoto, Plateau, Adamawa, Kano and Benue- were declared inconclusive by the umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC. Supplementary elections to determine the winners in those states were set for last Saturday, March 23. On the day, a pending court action stalled the conclusion of the election in Adamawa. However, the exercise that was conducted in the other five states were very much like the other elections already conducted in 2019, in terms of disruptions and violence.

    As at 11am on Monday, INEC had managed to announce winners in Sokoto, Benue, Plateau and Kano states. For those who are more concerned with counting tallies for the two major political parties, it was two apiece for the major parties in the final collation and result in those four states. The All Progressives Congress, APC, recorded victories in Plateau and Kano states, as Simon Lalong and Abdullahi Ganduje, both incumbents, were announced winners respectively.

    The opposition People’s Democratic Party, PDP, defeated its fiercest rival through the victories of Aminu Tambuwal and Samuel Ortom in Sokoto and Benue states respectively. Also, a pending court action had prevented the announcement of result in Bauchi; in the end, Bala Mohammed of the PDP was announced the winner, having beat the incumbent APC candidate.

    The marked use of violent disruptions to influence results in the elections is one of the major concerns of 2019 so far, and the nightmare seems to be dragging on forever. As at the time of writing, apart from Bauchi and Adamawa states, Rivers State is the only other state where the result of gubernatorial elections are yet to be announced. In a class of its own, Rivers State looks to have been set aside by INEC, probably until conclusion of the exercise everywhere else, because of the alarming degree of violence and disruption that occurred on March 9 in the state. Even if INEC and security outfits plan a concentration of personnel to collate and announce results there, most people agree that only one outcome – a Nyesom Wike win – is likely to restore normalcy (whatever that means in Rivers State) to the PDP stronghold.

    As it stands, APC has clinched 15 states to PDP’s 11 in the 29 states where gubernatorial elections were conducted in 2019. With the likely possibility that PDP will take the outstanding three, an outsider would think that our politics has produced a rich democratic outcome with the almost even split between the two biggest parties. The attractiveness of a duopoly for a healthy democracy is a matter of global debate, but Nigeria is in the same company with some aged and mature democracies in its inherently two party political system. The only difference is that our two major parties are separated by a revolving door, and our politicians can not always decide where to come out.

    Although the signs have always been there, this election is a refresher on the rudiments of election victory in Nigeria. First, as just discussed, is the adequately sized ‘platform’ – a synonym for political party in Nigeria. As of now, only two political parties fit that profile. Apparently, size does not refer to the number of members; it is about the size of the pocket of the party or the pockets of its key members. This matters in our politics of stomach infrastructure. Bags of rice, beans, garri, etc., are branded and distributed openly in election season, without shame or repercussion, by law or by conscience. In recent times, this has degenerated into distribution of raw cash at the polling units, during voting. There were reports to this effect during the presidential, gubernatorial and even in the supplementary election on Saturday. Our politics is heavily transactional, and only parties with deep pockets can compete.

    Then there are the thugs, for obvious reasons. They are unruly, violent and brazen, but methodical and targeted in their activities. They are responsible for most of the bloodshed in these past elections and virtually all the cases of inconclusive results. As for our security operatives, although there has always been suspicion of undue influence by them in elections, in 2019, we have received disturbing reports of active involvement and engagement in the disruption that makes it hard to tell the thugs apart from the security officials. The situation in Kano especially over the weekend further demonstrates that preparations for the disruptions were made. Lives have been lost and innocent voters maimed.

    After the money and the muscling, come the lawyers. Win or lose, the election war chest is incomplete without funds for the likely legal battle afterwards. The legal option can redefine winning and losing in Nigerian elections, as history has shown. That is why our politicians always run to tribunals. A day before the supplementary elections on Saturday, a shocker was delivered by the election tribunal hearing petitions against the victory of Gboyega Oyetola, winner of the Osun State gubernatorial election held last year. Oyetola was sacked by the tribunal, and INEC was ordered to retrieve his certificate of return and issue one to Ademola Adeleke of PDP. Of course, Oyetola continues to draw on the war chest by going on appeal. But the decision has given impetus to Atiku Abubakar, now of the PDP who is currently contesting President Muhammadu Buhari’s victory, and other would-be petitioners who have smelled a chance for a comeback.

    In this regard, the lawyers and tribunals become players in the warped game, selling their services, and more, to the highest bidder. History has exposed the underhand deals that have put the legal profession under scrutiny. Careers have ended and legal reforms have been carried out. But in 2019, old tricks are returning to this theatre of manipulation and with the election exercise all but done, the ball will again be passed on to the lawyers and the nation will say a silent prayer that integrity and honour will prevail, even though the signs have not been good in this election year.

    So what does it mean to win or lose elections in Nigeria, in a murky playing field where almost everybody is smeared by the filth on the field of play? Victory is fleeting and the pangs of defeat are short-lived, because the game is always afoot and a loser can switch teams within a moment’s notice to enjoy the benefits on the ‘winning side’. It is not a pleasant picture by any means, especially when the real loss is not suffered by anyone on that murky field of play, but by ignorant cheer leaders, wilful or inadvertent bystanders and even the unborn.

    To cure the ignorance of the electorates, our politicians need to find a conscience and begin to engage people on issues that matter, rather than through stomach infrastructure. They must begin to engage the wilful, apathetic political bystanders, by ensuring a better, fairer contest in elections, with officials that know their duty. The force of law may be needed through better electoral laws, but compulsion should be accompanied by working systems.

    National identity cards for example can be synchronised with driver’s license, passport and other documents of identification including the voter’s card, with a unique number for all living Nigerians, managed by a sophisticated system of biometric identification and verification. Integration of this system in the electoral process can help increase faith in the system and minimise disruptions. INEC’s approved budget was over N240 billion for this election alone. If that had been frontloaded into better biometric systems, we would have solved several problems for the price of a failed election.

    At the end of the day, the guilt is evenly spread and some may say that we have the electoral system we deserve. Election rice may be sweet on one person’s plate, but the same hand that offered the food may have engineered the death of another Nigerian many miles away or just next door. It is time we get our priorities straight.

  • Supplementing failure

    The conduct of supplementary elections into governorship positions in some six states in Nigeria are now only three days away. In total, across the country, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, declared over 40 elections of all categories inconclusive. INEC followed the “margin of lead principle”, which, according to the commission, is supported by the Electoral Act and mandates that no winner can be declared where the difference in votes between the two leading contenders is less than the number of cancelled votes. Votes are deemed ‘cancelled’ where voting is hindered by violence, non-availability of election materials and/or officials or where votes are voided due to over-voting(when ballots cast exceed number of accredited voters).

    In Benue State, INEC declared that as many as 121,011 would-be voters in the gubernatorial election were not able to vote. Although the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, claimed a lead of about 81,000 votes, going by announcement of results by the state returning officer, the All Progressives Congress, APC, disputed the results with claims of subterfuge and massive rigging against Samuel Ortom, the incumbent governor and PDP candidate. In any case, the 81,000 lead was exceeded by the 121,011 votes that were deemed cancelled, hence the declaration of results as inconclusive.

    In Sokoto, there were 75,403 cancelled votes across 136 polling units in 22 Local Government Areas of the state. The battle between Aminu Tambuwal of the PDP and his erstwhile deputy, Ahmed Aliyu of the APC, appeared to be very closely contested,as Tambuwal edged out his opponent with a difference of only 3,143 votes in the count so far. Similarly, in Bauchi, the difference between the PDP candidate Bala Mohammed, who is in the lead, and Mohammed Abubakar, the APC incumbent governor, is a mere 4,059 votes compared to the 45,312 votes deemed cancelled in the state. For Adamawa, the margin between the two leading candidates was much wider, but the votes deemed cancelled were however higher than the difference between the leading contenders. As it stands in the state, Ahmadu Fintiri of the PDP leads Jibrila Bindow of the APC by 32,576 votes.

    For Plateau, the only state of the six where the APC candidate is in the lead currently, Governor Simon Lalong leads PDP’s Jeremiah Useni with 44,929 votes, but this still falls short of the total number of votes cancelled. The reasons for cancelled votes in the state, according to the state returning electoral officer, were over-voting, manual voting and violence. As such, fresh elections will be conducted in 14 local governments out of the 17 in the state.

    In Kano State, Abba Yusuf of the PDP is currently in the lead against the incumbent governor, Abdullahi Ganduje of the APC, by 26,655 votes. However, with the number of cancelled votes across 22 local governments more than five times that number, Kano state gubernatorial election results were also declared inconclusive. Further elections for some seats in state assemblies across the country, like in Ekiti, and 32 seats for Senate and Federal House of Representatives across the country will also be held.

    With the unprecedented cases of inconclusive results, INEC and the multiple security agencies that were supposed to lend support to its operations have failed. The police, military, National Security and Civil Defence Corps, NSCDC, customs and about every other para-military agency employed by the state had a role to play.  However, the loss of lives and free-flowing violence in many places portrayed gross incompetence, or worse still, connivance of these security and official actors in the elections. Rivers State and most of the South-south, for instance, had the highest deployment of security operatives, with one US-based civil society organization reportedly describing scenes there as a war zone. Yet, most of the violence occurred there, leading to the suspension of collation in Rivers State even under the heavily militarized atmosphere.

    Although the military has denied the involvement of its men in the election fracas that was caught on tape in some cases, it has set-up a panel to investigate the role of its men in the violence that ensued. INEC has also placed some of its officials under arrest in some places. The Rivers State situation necessitated an official inquiry by INEC, but the report produced, apart from passing a seeming indictment on security agencies deployed in the state, has not led to any tangible results that can calm frayed nerves and encourage participation in areas where further violence may be expected.

    In Kano State, reports of the deputy governor allegedly leading an attack  on a collation centre in the fiercely contested Gama ward in the state, have been largely ignored by all government agents, including INEC. The incumbent governor of that state, AbdullahiGanduje, appears to be in a fight for political survival in the state, even after President Buhari won Kano in the presidential polls. Perhaps, the governor is still in the public eye over the compromising videos of him that surfaced online recently. In an absurd turn of events, the state government is said to have embarked on a last-minute dash to implement projects, including road construction in the possibly decisive Gama ward, few days to the supplementary election in the state.

    All of these may be hurting the ruling APC’s popularity, especially in relation to the integrity campaign of the president. On one hand, many are lauding the richness of the contest in many parts of the north, including the areas where results have been declared inconclusive. On the other hand, the praise is punctured by what appears to be a disingenuous attempt by some, like Ganduje and his men, to pull the wool over the eyes of the electorates, in an atmosphere where accusations have been made about interference and disruptions allegedly engineered to influence the raft of inconclusive results.

    The seeming employment of legal instruments to supplement the other nefarious activities in these elections is another dimension in the politics of violence that spells grave danger for the future of elections in Nigeria. The “margin of lead principle”, for instance, sends a wrong message to future unruly candidates and their parties that by successfully scuttling voting in enough areas, they can score a re-match, where ludicrous desperate projects, or worse, can be hastily carried out.

    The activities of politicians in Rivers and other places where disruptions have been rife continues to pull the nation back into the abyss of do or die politics that we have laboriously tried to climb out of in recent years. Where security agents and sitting government officials are not free from the smear of actual involvement in the disruption that defaces the electoral process, then the country has a long way to go yet.

    In a perfect world, by now, issues surrounding the conduct of Nigeria’s 2019 elections would have begun to recede further and further away from the front pages of the dailies. In that imaginary world, the first phase of the election would have taken place on February 16, as planned. But we are certainly not in a perfect world. The imperfection of our world has been shoved in our faces during these elections and amplified by the inadequacies of INEC, and the laws (and law enforcers) that govern our elections.

    Not only did INEC fail to stick to its schedule, it also failed to supervise and conduct a seamless exercise, despite the initial postponement. Multiple disruptions and irregularities have now led to the declaration of inconclusive results in the gubernatorial election in six statesand protracted suspension of collation in one notoriously volatile state. Additionally, the failure of the process in many parts of the country has opened a justifiable avenue for insinuation of partisan interference by politicians in some places. By and large, the conduct of the last elections was a failure in many respects, but in politics, success and failure are astoundingly relative terms.

    This Saturday, one then wonders whether it is real electorate-driven elections that are coming, or we are expecting supplementary disruptions and failure afterall. In an electoral system that seems to be sliding back into much darker times, there is no telling what to expect. With many failed promises already, expectations are not very high.

  • The winds of O to ge

    The second phase of voting in the 2019 general elections has come and gone. The first phase two weeks agohad presidential elections and elections into seats at the National Assembly, which saw widespread voter apathy and numerous disruptions across many states that led to loss of lives and re-runs in some places. Last Saturday, the gubernatorial and state House of Assembly elections had even lower turnouts, more violence and altogether tougher contests in many places.

    Like the surprising upsets at the National Assembly elections, the state gubernatorial elections produced big shockers that tell different tales, depending on the location. Of the many interesting outcomes, Kwara State was, again, amongst the most surprising. The gubernatorial election in the state further confirmed the deflation of the political power of heavyweight politician, Bukola Saraki, the outgoing senate president and former governor of the state.

    Saraki’s anointed People’s Democratic Party, PDP, candidate, RazakAtunwa, was roundly defeated in the contest by Abdulrahman Adulrazaq of the All Progressives Congress, APC.With the “O to ge” movement (which translates to “enough is enough) that swept Saraki aside in Kwara, the APC leadership completed its promise before the election to deal Saraki a humiliating defeat in the state. Saraki’s O tunya campaign for the senate was initially rejected at the ballot on February 23 by the people of his constituency. “O tunya” roughly means “ready (to go) again”.

    In Lagos, opponents of the APC and its candidate, Babajide Sanwoolu, tried, and failed, to deploy an O to ge movement against the APC in Lagos State. Jimi Agbaje, the perennial opponent to the APC and its predecessors in Lagos, was defeated once again, by a wide margin, to no surprises. Agbaje, who has little political presence outside election periods in Lagos, maybe more suited to adopt the O to ge catch phrase for himself by putting his Lagos gubernatorial ambition to rest. His repeated candidature and defeat shows the poor structure and reach of other political parties in Lagos and his lack of capacity to mount a winning challenge in the state.

    Some states produced some interesting contests, in relation to past political trends in those areas. Oyo State, for instance, has been known for its political intrigues, especially during the time of the late LamidiAdedibu who gave new meaning to power brokering in the politics of the state. A not-so-surprising result there saw BayoAdelabu of the APC losing to SeyiMakindeof the PDP, despite the efforts of outgoing governor,AbiolaAjimobi. Like Saraki, Ajimobi had been rejected by people of his own constituency in his bid for the senate on February 23. Having led a crass, authoritarian administration, Ajimobi has robbed the APC of its hold in the state, which was evident during President Buhari’s visit on the campaign trail.

    The South-south and Southeast appear to have retained their PDP leanings, according to results released as at the time of writing. However, parts of the North continue to show thought provoking political flexibility that may suggest the existence of more complex and competitive political machinery in those states, despite the low levels of education, or, some may say, precisely because of it. The close contests in Sokoto, Adamawa, Bauchi have led to declaration of inconclusive elections in those states. Plateau is the only other state where elections have been declared inconclusive as at the time of writing. The cancelled votes in those states exceed the difference between the two leading political parties. In Kano, the contest seems to be very keenly contested too, going by the results already announced. It is especially interesting, following the controversy surrounding Governor AbdullahiGanduje and suspicions of corruption generated by the now popular “Gandollars” videos. The winds of O to gethreaten to blow towards Kano as it stands.

    One of the most concerning things in the 2019 elections have been the disruptions, violence and death. The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room has recorded a total of 58 deaths during the 2019 elections, and these include the deaths of at least two soldiers and another likely election related death of one lawmaker from Oyo State, TemitopeOlatoye of the Action Democratic Party, ADP, at a collation centre in Lagelu Local Government Area of Oyo State. The multiple reports of security agents, including military men, partaking in the disruptions and allegedly aiding the snatching of ballot boxes are also disconcerting. In Oyo State, collation materials were burnt, and INEC had to rely on duplicates.

    Even more serious, especially for the election umpire, INEC, is the report that it handed over at least two of its personnel in Imo State to the police, after they apparently confessed to announcing and collating results from places where they earlier admitted elections did not hold. Ballot boxes were reportedly snatched in those areas. Announcement of Imo State’s results was suspended as a result of the confusion and disruption arising from the exercise in the state. The narrative that is emerging is not encouraging, especially when the disruptions across the different states were effected surgically, so that the prevalence is not extensive enough to lead to cancellation of elections, but impactful enough to discourage voting in strategic places, as was the allegation in parts of Lagos.

    The hands that are driving the election violence and pockets of disruption are obviously mindful of electoral laws and have perfected the art of keeping the disruptions just under the threshold of cancellation. The story in the South-south is very troubling, as the elections have been reportedly fully militarized, according to reports coming out from voters and members of the press in that area. The notorious Rivers State has, again, exhibited its notoriety, leading to the suspension of voting in the state.

    The O to ge refrain has been used in reference to breaking political chokeholds in certain parts of the country. O to ge should rather be used by all Nigerians to say enough is enough to electoral violence and the politics of intimidation that have played out in the country over the years. Many say 2015 was a step forward, but 2019 is looking like two steps backwards for the exercise of elections in Nigeria. INEC has also displayed a surprising lack of preparation, where voting materials were not better protected in some parts of the country, while other parts are over-militarised to the extent that people say soldiers were guarding thugs snatching ballots papers and boxes.

    In addition, the lack of attention to the welfare of ad-hoc staff of INEC is disgraceful. Many had to sleep out in the open in the absence of any provisions for their accommodation or even any form of comfort, down to water for baths. It explains, in part, the voter apathy, the propensity of officials and voters to compromise, and the quality of leaders that emerge from the process. There are many things that can be said for the elections, but while we keep fighting for freeness and fairness, there are many other factors in the margins that affect the integrity of the process and any results that emerge from it.

    The picture is dire, on the whole, despite the appearance of peacefulness of the elections in many parts. As for the politicians, whether they have been victims of O to ge, or they are fortunate to echo the counter phrase coined by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the APC in Lagos, “O to pe” (praiseworthy), they should be aware that the voting trends in this country are shifting, and the electorate is evolving, even in the most unlikely places in Nigeria. If our politicians are still caught up with the style of politics that has been practiced for too long in Nigeria, without any willingness to evolve, O to ge may soon become a nationwide refrain.