Category: Foreign

By Steven Kopits

RECENTLY leaked intelligence papers suggest that the US is spying on world leaders, including US allies.  This is no doubt true, and it’s certainly nothing new.  The very nature of NSA surveillance techniques, which involves culling trillions of bytes of data from every imaginable communications source, by definition will monitor the phones and internet traffic of foreign leaders, and pretty much everyone else.  That means the US spies on Ukraine, too.

And it’s probably a good thing.

One of the interesting cultural differences I observed in Eastern Europe revolves around manager-subordinate relations.  In the US, if a superior asks a question of a subordinate, answering, “I don’t know,” or “I’m not sure,” is okay.  Expressing doubts about an initiative is not only acceptable, but often required.  The manager is trying to ascertain what is known and unknown, and as a manager myself, I wanted the story straight up.  This kind of interaction comes directly from the liberal arts tradition, where inquiry, uncertainty and an exchange of ideas is encouraged.  A topic can be discussed irrespective of the status of the participants.

That is not the system in Eastern Europe.  Students tend to be taught rote, and they are expected to know the ‘right’ answer.  Failure to do so draws a demerit.  Subordinates therefore feel under pressure to yield the ‘proper’ answer, resulting in claims of competence, knowledge or expertise which they may lack.  Consequently, an American manager will regularly be surprised by Eastern European subordinates who bite off more than they can chew and fail to deliver.  This in turn leads to delays and greater problems down the line.

“Sport has the power to change the world,” Nelson Mandela once said. The actions of UEFA and a number of European football clubs demonstrate the truth of his words.

This sounds a bit like the information, or rather the lack of it, coming out of Kyiv regarding Ukraine’s combat capabilities.  We know much more about Russian personnel, tank, aircraft and artillery losses than we know about Ukraine’s.  This leads to unwelcome surprises, for example, seeing Ukraine cede ground where we might expect it to be winning.  Part of that arises from Kyiv’s culturally conditioned fear of divulging bad news, of giving the ‘wrong’ answer.

On the other hand, just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean that they are not out to get you.  US support for Ukraine is ultimately political.  Kyiv has to keep the US public on board and may feel a need to paint a rosier picture than the reality on the ground.  Further, the hard right wing of the Republican Party wants to cut Kyiv loose, and President Biden remains hesitant about pursuing victory over Russia.  No less than Ben Hodges, former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe, has excoriated the Biden administration for this waffling:

“Just say, ‘we want Ukraine to win.’ Instead, what we hear from very good, smart, hardworking senior officials [is], ‘we want Ukraine to be in the best, in the strongest possible position so that when they go to the negotiating table, they’re in a good, strong position.’”

What trust should Kyiv lend the US under the circumstances?  The Ukrainians are fighting for their lives, and the Biden administration is playing for a tie.  Does that foster open, full and frank communications?  Or does it open the door to another Afghanistan-style disaster in 2024 as the Ukraine slowly runs out of men?

I always try to close my posts with some interesting insight.  Here I struggle.  Trust is important.  That’s cliche.  The partners should trust each other.  Well, the partners’ objectives are not quite aligned.  Moreover, the Ukrainians are a bit unsophisticated, and the US president vacillates.  Maybe the US and Ukraine should not trust each other entirely. In such a world, spying can have an upside, because it can deliver bad news on the sly and allow US planners to adjust military support more rapidly.  At the same time, Kyiv cannot afford to fully trust US leadership and be a passive consumer of US policy.  The Ukrainians need to be able to think for themselves, and outside the military sphere, they remain subpar in this regard by a substantial margin.

Finally, President Biden’s legacy still rests on victory in Ukraine.  Two days after the start of the war, I wrote “The Democrats will be buried in the Ashes of Kyiv,” in which I argued that the Biden administration will own any loss in Ukraine.  That’s also true for a “tie” which allows Russia to retain any of its gains.  Moreover, the administration has to see Ukraine win the war within the next sixteen months if it wants credit at the polls next November, and that includes any possible recession between now and then.  For the Biden administration, playing for a tie is fraught with risk and likely a political loser.

The administration would do better to commit to victory.  With it, the Ukrainians will trust us more.  This can lead to victory in the field, which should ensure President Biden’s re-election in 2024.

Perhaps that’s the lesson for today. Commitment creates trust, and trust is political capital in the long run.

•This article was first published in www.kyivpost.com

India is set to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation, with almost three million more people by the middle of this year, data released by the United Nations yesterday showed.

Based on the projections, India’s population by mid-year will reach 1.4286 billion, compared to China’s 1.4257 billion – 2.9 million fewer – according to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) “State of World Population Report” for 2023.

But the UN has been unable to determine a date this shift will take place, due to “uncertainty” about the data coming from China and India.

India carries out a census once every 10 years, but the last one – which was due to be held in 2021 – was delayed during the pandemic. The country’s most recent official data dates to 2011.

By mid-year, the global population is estimated to hit 8.045 billion, the UN report said.

And by 2050, eight countries will account for half the projected growth in global population: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.

French President Emmanuel Macron has braved hecklers who shouted for him to resign as he threw himself into the uphill task of repairing damage done to his presidency by forcing through unpopular pension reforms.

A visit to eastern France, close to the border with Germany, was part of a concerted new effort by Macron and his government to put the furore caused by the pension change behind him.

Raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 has ignited a months-long firestorm of protest in France.

The climate of discontent threatens Macron’s ability to get some other planned policies through in the remaining four years of his second and last term.

He got to see first-hand how unhappy people still are when he mingled among a crowd in the town of Selestat.

One man who shook his hand did not hold back and told Macron that his government is “corrupt” – a claim that the president immediately denied.

“You’ll soon fall. You’ll see,” the man said.

Working his way along the crowd, which was kept back by a metal barrier, Macron argued for his pension reform but also acknowledged that it was “unpopular.”

“It doesn’t make anyone happy to work more and for longer,” he said.

Still, he insisted that he would not be cowed from mixing with people.

“I’ve known worse,” he said.

In the background, some shouted “Macron, resign,” or intoned a song that has become an anthem of the retirement protests.

Earlier yesterday, during a visit to a company specialising in wooden buildings, Macron was met by a more silent protest.

Legislator Emmanuel Fernandes, of the far-left France Unbowed party, appeared wearing a gag over his mouth bearing the number 49-3, in reference to the constitutional article that the government used to force the new pension age through parliament without a vote.

Sudan’S paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) yesterday agreed to a new temporary cease-fire with the Sudanese army.

In a statement, the RSF said the 24-hour cease-fire will start at 6 p.m. local time (1600GMT).

“We affirm our full commitment to a complete cease-fire,” it said.

There was no comment from the Sudanese army on the RSF announcement.

On Tuesday, the two conflicting rivals agreed to a 24-hour cease-fire, but traded accusations of violating the temporary truce.

At least 270 people have been killed and 2,600 others injured in armed clashes between the army and the RSF fighters since Saturday in Khartoum and its surrounding areas, according to the Health Ministry.

While the RSF accused the army of attacking its forces south of Khartoum with light and heavy weapons, the military said the paramilitary force was “spreading lies” and declared it a “rebel” group.

A disagreement between the two military rivals regarding military and security reform, which envisages the full participation of the RSF in the army, has turned into a hot conflict in the last few months.

The dispute between the two sides came to the surface last week, when the army said recent movements by the RSF had occurred without coordination and were illegal.

Sudan has been without a functioning government since October 2021, when the military dismissed Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok’s transitional government and declared a state of emergency in a move decried by political forces as a “coup.”

Sudan’s transitional period, which started in August 2019, was scheduled to end with elections in early 2024.

Nyanmar’s Supreme Court agreed yesterday to hear appeals of ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s convictions and requests for reduced sentences in several cases in which she was charged with corruption, election fraud and violating the official secrets act, a legal official said.

Suu Kyi, 77, was arrested on Feb. 1, 2021, when the military seized power from her elected government. She is serving prison sentences totaling 33 years after being found guilty in a series of politically driven prosecutions brought by the military.

Her supporters and independent legal experts say the cases are an attempt to discredit her and legitimise the military’s takeover, while preventing her from returning to politics.

A legal official familiar with Suu Kyi’s court cases said the Supreme Court has not yet set a date to hear the appeals and requests for reduced sentences but might do so in the next two months.

The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he is not authorised to release information about the decision. Suu Kyi’s lawyers, who had been a source of information about the proceedings, were served with gag orders in late 2021.

Suu Kyi has been convicted on a range of charges, including illegally importing and possessing walkie-talkies, violating coronavirus restrictions, sedition and seven other corruption matters. Most appeals filed by her lawyers on her behalf have already been rejected.

Yesterday’s Supreme Court’s decision was not publicly announced. Myanmar’s justice system operates with little transparency, and all of Suu Kyi’s trials were closed sessions.

The army’s 2021 takeover was met with massive nonviolent resistance which was suppressed by the military with deadly force and has turned into a widespread armed struggle. The military-installed government has not allowed any outside person to meet with Suu Kyi since she was arrested despite international pressure for talks that could ease the country’s political crisis.

At least 17,517 political detainees, including Suu Kyi, were being held as of Wednesday, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, an independent organization that keeps verified tallies of arrests and casualties linked to the nation’s political conflict.

The Supreme Court agreed to hear an appeal of a corruption case in which Suu Kyi was convicted of abusing her position and causing a loss of state funds by neglecting to heed financial regulations. She was sentenced in December to seven years in prison on five corruption charges for granting permission to Win Myat Aye, a Cabinet member in her former government, to hire, buy and maintain a helicopter.

It also agreed to hear a request for a reduced sentence in a case involving the country’s official secrets act. Suu Kyi received a three-year sentence last September after being convicted with Sean Turnell, an Australian economist, and three members of her Cabinet. An earlier appeal of the conviction in a lower court was rejected.

Turnell, who served as an adviser to Suu Kyi, and two of the convicted Cabinet members were released after being receiving amnesties. The most recent, Kyaw Win, a former minister of planning and finance, was among more than 3,000 prisoners freed on Monday to mark the traditional New Year holiday.

The Supreme Court also agreed to hear a request for a reduced sentence in election fraud convictions of Suu Kyi, ousted President Win Myint and the former minister of the president’s office, Min Thu. They each received three-year sentences last September.

By Ekaete Bassey with Agency reports 

A Chinese man has gone viral after spending almost an entire day kneeling outside his ex-lover’s workplace, in the rain while begging her to accept him back.

The unidentified young man spent 21 hours, from 1 pm to 10 am. the next day, on his knees with a bouquet of flowers in front of his ex-girlfriend’s office building located in Dazhou, Sichuan province, China; trying to convince her to take him back.

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Despite efforts from locals urging the man to give him his efforts, the young man turned deaf ears as he remained on his knees in the rain while battling with cold.

Amid all of these, his ex-lover was nowhere to be seen.

“Many of us tried to talk him into leaving,” said a man, surnamed Li, according to South China Morning Post.

“It’s not necessary to keep on kneeling. The girlfriend is not willing to show up but you are still here, losing face.”

The offbeat situation attracted so much attention that even the police reached the scene and tried to persuade him to leave.

However, he was undeterred and asked the police, “Is it illegal for me to kneel here? If it is not illegal, please leave me alone.’”

A police officer informed that his ex-girlfriend broke up with him a few days ago, adding that he was seeking forgiveness and hoped she could date him again.

The man ultimately left the scene the following day at 10 am ‘because he could not bear the cold any longer’.