Xi Jinping delivered a report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on Sunday.

The following are some highlights from the report:

Momentous five years 

The five years since the 19th National Congress of the CPC have been truly momentous and extraordinary.

The Party Central Committee has pursued a strategy of national rejuvenation amid global changes of a magnitude not seen in a century, with major strategic plans made for advancing the cause of the Party and the country. (Read more)

Historic achievements over past decade

The CPC has taken China on a new journey toward building a modern socialist country in all respects.

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Under the leadership of the Party Central Committee, the entire Party, the military, and the Chinese people have been brought together to carry out a great struggle with many new features of the times. (Read more)

Opening new chapters in adapting Marxism to Chinese context

It is the solemn historic responsibility of today’s Chinese Communists to continue opening new chapters in adapting Marxism to the Chinese context and the needs of the times.

Since the 18th CPC National Congress, with the courage to make theoretical explorations and innovations, the CPC has, from an entirely new perspective, deepened its understanding of the laws that underlie governance by a communist party, the development of socialism, and the evolution of human society. (Read more)www.chinadaily.com.cn

China will pursue opening-up on larger scale and scope and at greater depth, Sun Yeli, a spokesman for the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, said on Saturday.

Sun said at a news conference that opening-up is a basic State policy of the nation, and no matter how the world may change, China’s resolve and will to open up will remain firm.

China has been accelerating its pace in opening-up in recent years, Sun said, and has advanced the Belt and Road Initiative, signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a free trade pact signed by 15 Asia-Pacific economies, and is seeking membership in multiple multilateral trade agreements.

The nation has successfully held the China International Import Expo for four successive years, in an effort to proactively open its market to the rest of the world, he said, and has set up 21 pilot free trade zones. It has also downsized the items on the national and FTZ negative lists for foreign investment respectively to 31 and 27, while removing the items restricted for the manufacturing sector on the FTZ negative list for foreign investment, he said.

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Sun said China’s pursuit of building the new dual-circulation development paradigm — which takes the domestic market as the mainstay and lets the domestic and foreign markets reinforce each other — does not mean China will exclusively focus on domestic circulation and scale back its opening-up.

Building the new development paradigm is a momentous decision based on the changes in China’s development stage, environment and conditions, and, in particular, considering the changes in China’s comparative advantage. It will generate lasting momentum for the Chinese economy in the long run and for the global economic stability and recovery as well, he said.

The new development paradigm features open circulation, rather than a closed domestic circulation, and taking domestic circulation as the mainstay doesn’t mean seeking development behind closed doors, he said.

Instead, by unlocking the potential of domestic demand, China can better link up domestic and international markets, he said, adding that high-level opening-up is an inherent feature of the new development paradigm. www.chinadaily.com.cn

Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield is the U.S. Representative to the United Nations.  In this hybrid briefing joined by United States Bureau Chief OLUKOREDE YISHAU, Thomas-Greenfield sheds light on the latest on the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States’ proposals for reforms in the United Nations and others. Excerpts:

 

Reforming the UN

We’ve been having a discussion around reforming the UN for the past couple of weeks.  As you know, I gave a speech in San Francisco a week or so before High-Level Week.  President Biden also addressed this issue in his statement before the General Assembly.

We do think that UN reform would entail Security Council reform.  It would mean having the Security Council more broadly representative, having more members of the Security Council.  As President Biden noted, we should have African permanent members of the Security Council, permanent members of the Security Council from Latin America, and we need to increase the number of non-permanent members of the Security Council.

Two, Security Council and UN reform would involve how we address issues of the veto.  And one of those actions taken just recently was the Lichtenstein resolution that calls for Security Council members to come to the General Assembly to explain their use of the veto.  And Russia has had to do that several times over the past few months and including their most recent veto where we’re now looking at bringing that resolution that they vetoed for a vote in the Security Council itself – I mean, sorry, on the General Assembly on Wednesday.

One of the things we call for is that countries be sparing in their use of the veto and only use the veto when considered absolutely necessary.

 

 Russia’s latest assault

In response to the illegal sham referenda and Russia’s attempted annexations of Ukrainian territory, the Secretary-General made a striking statement.  He said, and I quote, “The UN Charter is clear:  Any annexation of a state or territory by another state resulting from the threat or use of force is a violation of the principles of the UN Charter and international law,” unquote.

These were the words of the Secretary-General of the United Nations – not the United States, not the European Union or a European country.  It was the words coming from the Secretary-General.  They unequivocally outlined what’s at stake here.  The Secretary-General’s words demonstrate that this vote is not a great power battle or a fight between Security Council members.  This is about something much larger than any one country – something larger than even a group of countries.  This is about defending the United Nations.  It’s about defending the UN Charter that all UN Member States signed onto.

On September 30, we saw Russia once again try to shield itself from accountability and responsibility by vetoing a UN Security Council resolution condemning its sham referenda and annexation attempts.  Not a single country – not a single country other than Russia – voted against this resolution.  Not one.  As I promised at the time, we are not letting Russia’s veto stop us from pursuing accountability.  So, we have brought this issue to the General Assembly, where every country, large or small, Security Council member or not, has a vote.

Yesterday, the president of the General Assembly reconvened the Emergency Special Session on Ukraine to address Russia’s illegal and fraudulent attempt to annex sovereign Ukrainian territory.  The European Union, on behalf of a cross-regional drafting group of several dozen UN member states, drafted a resolution in the UN General Assembly that condemns Russia’s actions as a clear violation of the UN Charter and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

We’ve called on all UN member states to support this resolution.  And as of now, the resolution has close to 70 co-sponsors from around the world.  We expect this number to continue to grow in the coming days.

As countries have stood to make their statements since yesterday, we’ve heard the same resounding message over and over again.  It is the same message shared by the Secretary-General, the one I started with:  It is illegal, and simply unacceptable, to attempt to redraw another country’s borders by force.  It goes against what the UN stands for.

And yesterday we saw Russia’s cowardly efforts to have this vote done by secret ballot resoundingly fail by an overwhelming margin.  We’re encouraged by how many voted against Russia’s procedural attempts to shield themselves from accountability.

I will end with this:  After Russia’s strikes against Ukraine over the weekend, the choice facing UN members has become even more stark.  The stakes have become even more clear.  Now is not the time for placation.  It is the time for action.  As Secretary Blinken said yesterday, “Russia’s attacks are yet another reminder that its war against Ukraine presents a profound moral issue.  No person of conscience – and no country of principle – could be unmoved by the devastation of these horrors,” unquote.

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Countries taking sides with Russia

what is important for us to watch are the number of countries that voted with Russia.  And the no votes were very limited and the countries were not unexpected.  And we expect those numbers to remain low when we bring forward the resolution for a vote likely on Wednesday.

I can’t explain why countries make a decision to abstain.  Some of them have tried to explain that.  But for us, it’s those countries who voted no, and looking at who they are doesn’t surprise any of us.

As for the Turkey – Turkish call for a ceasefire, certainly that would have to be on both sides, because if the Ukrainians stop fighting the Ukrainians are going to lose their country.  And whether the Russians can be trusted or not always remains to be seen.  We certainly support efforts to bring this war to an end, but the simplest action to bring the war to an end is for Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine.

Russia and veto power

They can’t veto the Security Council, and they can’t veto the condemnation that they are experiencing, and they can’t veto the isolation that they are experiencing.  The fact that 14 countries in the Security Council did – voted against them is a clear – is clear evidence of the isolation that they are experiencing.

 

Arab countries and the African countries

The only country intimidating countries to vote is Russia.  We don’t use intimidation tactics.  Our message to all countries is that this is about the UN Charter.  It’s about what the Secretary-General said in his statement.  This is an attack on all of the values that we stand for.  It is not a competition between Russia and the United States.  It is not a taking sides.  It’s about defending the right of Ukraine to exist.  It’s about defending the UN Charter.

And countries that make the decision to abstain, again, I can’t explain those countries.  We do, along with a variety of countries, engage with our friends and our allies and our colleagues to explain the position that we have on the UN Charter, but we don’t use intimidation tactics.  That’s just another disinformation and propaganda message from the Russians explaining to the world what they do to intimidate their – to get the votes.  And they clearly are not succeeding, as you noted.  As you will notice, there were only a few countries that voted with Russia in the three votes that we had yesterday.

 

The draft resolution

 

We’re doing everything possible to ensure that the votes are strong.  Back in 2014, 100 countries supported the vote against Russia on Crimea, and those numbers have gone up.  And I think African countries and countries from the Middle East understand and appreciate the importance of supporting the UN Charter that we all signed onto when it was created.  And they all see with their own eyes the aggression that Russia is taking against the people of Ukraine, and no country of conscience, as Secretary Blinken said, can be unmoved by that.

 

Many international experts are voicing expectations that the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which is expected to open on Oct 16 in Beijing, will generate successes not only for China but also the world.

Erik Solheim, former executive director of the United Nations Environmental Programme and former UN under-secretary-general, said that after 40 years of unprecedented economic growth and poverty reduction, China should focus on how to take the next step toward a high-quality and people-centered society.

He said the 20th CPC National Congress is an opportunity to celebrate China’s progress since it initiated the reform and opening-up drive in 1978, consequently eradicating extreme poverty, extending life expectancy to the level of developed countries and becoming a global leader in renewable energy and green development.

“China should set new high ambitions for its global leadership toward an ecological civilization and shared prosperity for humankind,” the Norwegian politician said.

He said China is already ahead of all other nations in new green technologies and can help lead the world on climate and the environment.

“At a time of much global uncertainty, China’s leadership is critical to create a stable world order for economic progress and green development,” he said.

Carlos Martinez, a British commentator and co-editor of Friends of Socialist China, said the 20th CPC National Congress will likely emphasize common prosperity.

“Alleviating poverty, reducing inequality, preventing the unchecked expansion of capital and ensuring all people in China benefit from China’s growing economic strength — these are all tremendously important in terms of working toward the second centenary goal of building a modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious,” he said.

He pointed to China’s commitment to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, and said he believes the Congress will reaffirm the Party’s commitment to the climate and biodiversity.

He said China is leading the way with renewable energy, electric vehicles, afforestation, pollution reduction and biodiversity preservation.

“With an increasingly urgent climate crisis, this (China’s) leadership is indispensable,” he said.

Martinez believes China will continue to pursue a foreign policy based on peace, development and mutually beneficial cooperation.

However, the 20th CPC National Congress will inevitably have to seriously consider China’s defense capacity, and the need to foster domestic innovation and consumption, in the face of increasingly hostile forces led by the United States, which is attempting to contain China.

Bernard Dewit, chair of the Brussels-based Belgian Chinese Chamber of Commerce, has traveled to China almost every year since the 1980s but has not been able to during the past three years because of COVID-19.

He said the Congress will need to focus on measures to support the economy and hopes China’s pandemic-control policies could adapt to ease travel for businesspeople and tourists from the rest of the world.

Dewit added that he hopes China’s economy will remain open to foreign investment and to partnerships between Chinese and foreign companies in China and abroad. www.chinadaily.com.cn

As the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China draws closer, Li Shengli, a veteran firefighter from Jiangxi province, is excited about traveling to Beijing to attend the gathering.

“I’m greatly honored to be elected as a delegate, and also feel a heavy responsibility,” said Li, who works at the command center for the fire and rescue corps in Jiangxi and is one of some 40 delegates elected by the province for the Party’s meeting in the capital.

Another delegate, Lu Shengmei, a retired doctor from Shaanxi province, also feels the heavy responsibility, and said she will bring to the meeting her experience gained from decades of working at the grassroots.

“I always remember that it is the Party and the people who give me trust and strength. This encourages me to continue serving my patients and to repay society and people’s recognition,” Lu said.

Li and Lu are among 2,296 delegates who will attend the 20th National Congress of the CPC, which is expected to be convened on Sunday. The delegates went through a rigorous and meticulous election process that lasted several months.

Representing the Party’s more than 96 million members, the delegates will review the work reports submitted by the 19th CPC Central Committee and the 19th CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, or CCDI, at the five-yearly congress.

They will present opinions and requests from Party members and the public, discuss and decide major Party issues and elect a new CPC Central Committee, and a new CCDI, the Party’s top disciplinary watchdog.

Noting the importance of the upcoming congress, which is being held at a crucial moment on the new journey to build a modern socialist country in all respects, President Xi Jinping said goals, tasks and policies for the cause of the Party and the country for the next five years and beyond will be set at the meeting.

It is vitally important to build on past successes to further advance the cause of the Party and the country, the future of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, Xi, who is also general secretary of the CPC Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, said at a study session of provincial- and ministerial-level officials in July.

Xi, a candidate nominated by the CPC Central Committee, was unanimously elected a delegate to the Party congress on April 22 in the electoral unit of Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region.

He and other members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee took part in elections in border areas with a large ethnic minority population, old revolutionary base areas, and key regions where national-level development strategies are implemented, setting an example for leading officials, according to Xinhua News Agency.

The leaders’ election as delegates at respective electoral units, and their attendance at group discussions of corresponding delegations at the upcoming Party congress, are conducive to furthering the implementation of major national development initiatives, and building China into a modern socialist country in all respects, according to Xinhua.

Meritocratic process

Shang Hongri, a professor of political studies at Shanghai Normal University, said the election of delegates is an important foundation for a successful Party congress, and when the congress is not in session, the delegates still have many specific duties to perform during their five-year tenure.

The delegates’ ability and work style directly influence the discussion and decision-making at the meeting, thus further involving the Party’s leadership and the prosperity and long-term stability of the Party’s cause and the country, he said.

“As such an important matter, it is natural that the process of electing congress delegates should be very scientific, standardized and rigorous,” Shang added.

According to a Xinhua report, the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core paid great attention to the election of Party congress delegates.

Xi personally planned and made election-related arrangements. He presided over Party leadership meetings to discuss this issue, setting the guiding principles, requirements, and goals and tasks for the election.

He attended multiple briefings on the progress of the election process and issued key instructions, such as enhancing the Party’s leadership, setting strict standards for candidates, carefully reviewing candidates’ integrity, optimizing the spectrum of the delegates, and stringently enforcing electoral discipline, the report said.

As there are more than 96 million CPC members, the chance of a member becoming a delegate to the congress is about 1 in 42,000.

The electoral work, which took place from November through July, was organized by 38 electoral units, including provincial-level regions, central authorities, the central financial sector, and centrally administered State-owned enterprises based in Beijing.

The entire procedure generally consists of five parts: the nomination of candidates by Party members; a nominee review; public notification of the candidates for feedback; candidate shortlists; and the final vote in each electoral unit.

The election was competitive, with more than 15 percent of the candidates eliminated during the process. The elected delegates will be vetted by a qualification review committee before the national congress.

Shang, the expert, said the meticulous electoral system is designed to ensure the delegates elected are outstanding Party members who have obtained the approval and recognition of fellow members and also the people.

The system also highlights intra-Party democracy, with procedures to facilitate the participation of grassroots Party organizations and members, he said.

Innovative methods adopted nationwide to encourage participation in the electoral process include setting up mobile ballot boxes, holding meetings, and seeking opinions through phone calls, letters and door-to-door visits.

All grassroots Party organizations took part in the electoral process, with an average participation rate of 99.5 percent of members, the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee said last month.

“Party organizations and members at the grassroots displayed great political enthusiasm for the election of delegates, and were highly motivated to participate in the process,” the department said.

“The majority of Party members believe that participating in the nomination of delegates improves their sense of honor and mission,” it added.

Broad representation

With an average age of 52.2, the delegates include Party members from different age groups, but those who joined the Party after the launch of reform and opening-up in 1978 form the majority, according to the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee.

The number of female delegates, who form 27 percent of the total, has risen by 2.8 percentage points since the Party’s 19th National Congress in 2017. People from ethnic minority groups account for 11.5 percent of the total, and come from 40 such groups. More than 95 percent of delegates received education at junior college level or higher.

Delegates include members in leadership positions and also those working on the frontlines, with the latter accounting for 33.6 percent of the total, according to official data.

Different sectors of society are represented, including the economy, science and technology, national defense, the judiciary, procuratorial and public security, education, publicity, culture, healthcare, sports and social administration.

Prominent figures among the delegates include 85-year-old leading epidemiologist Zhong Nanshan, Zhang Guimei, a teacher devoted to improving girls’ education in mountainous areas, astronaut Wang Yaping, and Winter Olympics multiple medalists Wu Dajing and Xu Mengtao.

The elected delegates are outstanding Party members highly qualified ideologically and politically, have a good work style and high moral standards, are competent in discussing State affairs, and have made remarkable achievements in their work, according to the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee.

Li, the firefighter, has taken part in more than 11,000 firefighting and rescue operations, saving and evacuating over 30,000 people during his career of 30-plus years. He is a hero and a role model in the eyes of fellow Party members.

The 50-year-old used to lead a squad of experienced firefighters, who are all Party members undertaking difficult tasks. The team was called Shengli, after Li’s given name, which translates as “victory”.

Lu, the doctor, was born and raised in Beijing. After graduating as a medical student in the capital in 1968, she was sent to a county hospital in Yulin, Shaanxi, where she worked with colleagues to establish the county’s first independent standard pediatric unit.

The Organization Department said, “The delegates’ characteristics fully demonstrate that the CPC has a solid class basis and a broad mass basis, and that it is full of vigor and vitality from generation to generation.”

Duties performed

The delegates will fulfill their duties by discussing each item on the agenda for the national Party congress, including evaluating the work reports and potential amendments to the CPC Constitution.

Li said that when he worked on the frontline, he used to devote most of his energy to improving firefighting and rescue skills.

Now, to better perform his duties as a delegate, he spends more time studying national policies and regulations, including those related to his profession, while still performing his daily work well.

Lu said she pays a lot of attention to development of the nation’s medical services and related policies, as they are closely related to improving people’s health and livelihoods.

“I hope to tell the meeting about people’s need for health, which I have learned about through my job, and also to contribute to the work of the Party and the country,” she said.

Shang, the professor, said, “During discussions at the meeting, delegates are free to put forward their suggestions and opinions, but it’s a process that aims to lead to a consensus in the end.”

The congress will conclude with the adoption of official reports and the election of the new CPC Central Committee, which will hold its first plenary session soon after the congress to elect the new Political Bureau, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau and the Party’s general secretary.

However, the conclusion of the Party congress does not mean that delegates’ duties have ended.

Shang said all delegates must maintain close contact with grassroots Party members and the people to listen to their opinions and suggestions, and learn about problems that have surfaced in implementing the Party’s decisions.

Delegates can submit opinions and suggestions to the central leadership in written form, either individually or jointly.

The CPC Central Committee also entrusts delegates with certain backgrounds to conduct investigations and studies into major policies and issues, Shang said.

In addition, delegates are invited to attend the plenary sessions of the CPC Central Committee and voice opinions on relevant topics, he added. www.chinadaily.com.cn

Plato’s The Republic, which is the foundation of Western political thought, is the key for foreigners to understand today’s China. The republic Plato envisaged more than 2,300 years ago is somewhat similar to the People’s Republic of China. China’s governing party can be called the “guardian party” because of its similarities to the “Guardians” that ruled the ideal republic Plato envisaged. The Communist Party of China founded the People’s Republic of China and has led China to achieve enormous social and economic progress unique in speed, size and global impact.

Xi Jinping has been the CPC’s leader since 2012, and his lifelong values and goals guide the continuation of the Party’s highly successful system of government that is essential for achieving China’s national rejuvenation. Xi emerged as China’s leader with close to four decades of experience and constant evaluation in diverse government roles in the Party’s highly competitive leadership training and selection system.

It is a mark of the effectiveness of the Party leadership’s selection process that Xi’s personal values and goals exemplify the rare type of statesman-philosopher, as he is seeking to institutionalize the ideals and pragmatic goals that he manifested in his early articles and during his work as a minor government official and in his books as China’s leader on The Governance of China in four volumes.

My new book, China in 2049: The Meaning of Xi Jinping, presents my analysis, as a Western trained lawyer, businessman and political scientist who is not Chinese, about the importance of Xi’s values and formative experiences that created his goals as China’s leader seeking a constructive shared future for humankind.

The book also explains why and how the economic growth and national security of the United States and China must and can be aligned to peacefully coexist. My goal is to help the policymakers of the two countries to find a constructive instead of a catastrophic shared future.

A Chinese friend once asked me what in my view, as a foreigner, is the most important change in China. The answer is: people in China have become more confident.

The Chinese people have transitioned from timidity and uncertainty about their position in the world to being confident and proud of what China has achieved in just over four decades, something which no other country has been able to do.

The Chinese people’s pride in their country is justified, because the Party has propelled China to a position of global leadership, commensurate with its economic power and population, which comprises more than 20 percent of the global total.

For 38 of the last 40 centuries, China’s was the world’s largest and most technologically advanced economy. Then it started looking inward, which did not turn out well because the economic, technological and military advances made by other countries made China vulnerable to foreign exploitation.

But when pushed into the corner, the Chinese people produced a unique system of government that could defend the country’s sovereignty and make astonishing economic and social achievements. The Party’s people-centered government policies have enabled China to leap from being one of the poorest countries to becoming the world’s second-largest economy.

Hence, future Chinese generations must never forget that without a stable, strong political leadership capable of formulating and implementing successful long-term economic and social planning, China’s fate could easily turn out differently.

Many foreign observers used to say that China’s success was temporary, because it has a political system different from that of Western countries.

In 2020 Eric Schmidt, a key US government adviser and former Google CEO, summed up China’s advantage in developing and applying new technologies to industries that will control the future, saying: “China is simply too big. There are too many smart people in China.”

Yet many Americans used to say China’s one party-led system of government, socialism with Chinese characteristics and the Chinese economy dominated by State-owned enterprises ought to fail because China’s policymakers are not doing what the US thinks they should. But China could not, would not and should not copy other countries’ systems of government and economic management.

China’s political and economic systems are not failing. Instead, the Party leadership is enabling China to become the world’s largest economy. For many Americans, who did not expect the speed and global impact of China’s success, this is a traumatic shock.

Researchers at the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation at Harvard University released in July 2020 a landmark study examining Chinese public opinion over a 13-year period, covering the policy impact of three of China’s government administrations. The study titled “Understanding CCP Resilience: Surveying Chinese Public Opinion Through Time” was the longest-running independent effort to determine Chinese citizens’ satisfaction level with the government’s performance.

Edward Cunningham, director of the Ash Center’s China Programs said: “Since the start of the survey in 2003 to its conclusion in 2016, Ash Center researchers found that Chinese citizen satisfaction with government has increased virtually across the board. From the impact of broad national policies to the conduct of local town officials, Chinese citizens rate the government as more capable and effective than ever before. These strong satisfaction rates counter the argument that as China’s economy continued to expand and economic inequality increased, citizen satisfaction levels would drop as their relative demands increased.”

Many Americans cannot understand or accept China’s success, because they unrealistically assumed that China would copy non-Chinese models of government and economic management.

But the reality is that China’s century-old party rapidly adapts to changing circumstances, and is capable of formulating and implementing successful long-term economic, social and national security policies. The CPC has enabled the country to implement socialism with Chinese characteristics and increase China’s per capita income from $50 to more than $10,000 and lifted close to 800 million people out of abject poverty. These achievements underpin the legitimacy of the Party.

China has a population of over 1.4 billion and the US 334 million. So the US’ economic stability and national security depend on Americans accepting and understanding the reality of the CPC’s success and US policymakers reciprocating the CPC’s policy of peaceful coexistence.

The author is chairman of the America China Partnership Foundation.

The Quinnipiac University Poll is an independent, non-partisan national and statewide public opinion poll that shows where voters in the United States stand on critical issues. Dr. Doug Schwartz is the director of the Quinnipiac University poll. In this briefing organised by the Foreign Press Centers, Dr. Schwartz spoke about the latest results from the Quinnipiac University Poll in advance of the 2022 midterm elections, including their last national poll, as well as more recent polls in Georgia, Connecticut, and Texas. United States Bureau Chief OLUKOREDE YISHAU attended the briefing. Excerpts:

What is at stake in midterm polls

You only need to read the headlines on any given day in the United States to understand how much is at stake in November’s midterm election. The outcome will determine public policy and how much President Biden can get done for the remainder of his term.

In the U.S. House of Representatives, all 435 House seats are up for grabs, and in the U.S. Senate, there are 35 Senate seats that are open. As a pollster – as a pollster, I will share some of the factors I’m looking at to get a sense of what to expect on Election Day.

First let’s take a look at the U.S. House of Representatives. There is historical precedent during midterms for the party in power losing seats in the House of Representatives during the first term of a new president. That gives the Republican Party the advantage. However, that precedent is being tested this year because of the Supreme Court decision in June to overturn Roe v. Wade, which established the constitutional right to an abortion.

Pollsters started seeing conditions improving for Democrats, making races more competitive. In addition, the abortion issue became a key factor in some special elections favoring Democrats. While we don’t poll individual congressional races, the Quinnipiac University poll takes a big-picture snapshot by asking voters in our national polls which party they’d want to see take control of the House.

Our most recent national poll in late August showed Democrats with a slight edge. Previously it had been split. A note of caution: a lot can happen between late August and Election Day that can possibly change that. But it gives you a sense of how this year could buck historical trends.

That big-picture snapshot is not as precise as having 435 separate surveys in every congressional district. To look at individual races, one resource is the Cook Political Report. It breaks down every congressional district. While it doesn’t poll in each district, it has analysis of candidates, demographics, and political history with an outlook for individual races.

Taking a look at the U.S. Senate, which is evenly divided among parties, Republicans only need to gain one seat to take control of the Senate. In our big-picture snapshot in our national polls, voters are split over which party they’d want to see take control of the Senate as of late August.

We polled some individual Senate races, including the closely watched U.S. Senate race in Georgia. Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock faces Republican challenger Herschel Walker, a former football star player backed by former President Trump. Our latest poll among likely voters showed Warnock with a 6-point lead over Walker. That was mid-September. This week the race is gaining a lot of attention with a controversy involving Herschel Walker. The two candidates are also scheduled to debate this month.

Whether these factors will impact the race remains to be seen. One piece of data to consider is that 96 percent of likely voters in Georgia who have chosen a candidate say their minds are made up, while only 4 percent say they may change their minds. Something else to take into account in a race like this one is early voting. In Georgia, it begins on October 17th.

Midterms as a referendum on the sitting president

President Biden is still unpopular, but he has improved significantly over the last few months. He has risen to about a 40 percent job approval, but that is still a low number and traditionally that does not bode well for the president’s party in the midterms.

Having said that, we have noticed that voters are distinguishing between incumbent Democratic senators and the Democratic president. For example, Senator Warnock has a positive job approval rating in Georgia while Joe Biden has a negative job approval rating.

Inflation has consistently ranked as the most urgent issue since March in our national polls, and voters are unhappy with the state of the economy. That does not bode well for the party in power.

Something else that we consistently see is that there are big differences between the political parties over the most urgent issue. Republicans and Independents continually rank inflation as the most urgent issue. In our last national poll, Democrats ranked abortion as the most urgent issue. On the issue of abortion, two-thirds of voters say they think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and more than half of voters say it’s very important to them that a political candidate shares their view on abortion.

Governorship polls

There are 36 states electing governors, and we have polls in some closely watched contests. One of them is in Georgia, where incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp is being challenged by Democrat Stacey Abrams, who is trying to become the nation’s first black woman to become governor. They ran against each other in 2018. Then, as now, they are locked in a very tight race.

In Texas, Republican Governor Greg Abbott is leading Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 7 points in a state with a history of voting Republican. Abbott and some of his controversial policies such as bussing migrants to Democratic-led cities have put him in the spotlight. Earlier this year, he also signed into law one of the strictest abortion measures in the country. O’Rourke, you might recall, ran for U.S. Senate in 2018 and lost to incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz by 3 points. He also launched a presidential bid in 2020.

Of course, everyone is wondering whether there will be another poll miss like there was in the 2020 presidential election where polls underestimated how well Donald Trump would do. After the election, there was no clear reason for the poll miss, but what I can tell you from Quinnipiac polls is that we found an unusually high number of voters who didn’t tell us how they were voting at the end of the campaign. Since that time, we have modified how we follow up on the election question. If people do not give us an answer on how they are going to – on the how they are going to vote question, we have come up with some new follow-up questions that will help us get an answer.

Our polling methodology remains the same. We have live telephone interviewers using random digit dialing to call people on both landlines and cell phones. Over these next few weeks before Election Day, many polls will be released from all kinds of organisations. Not all of them are created equal. Here is what I look for when deciding whether to trust the results. I trust polls that use high-quality methods such as the ones used at Quinnipiac University – telephone polls with live interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones. I also trust polls that are transparent about their methods and have a good track record.

Five weeks until Election Day a lot can happen and the question is: Will this midterm election follow historical patterns or set a new precedent? Republicans have history on their side when the party out of power has the advantage of usually picking up congressional seats in the midterms. There is also President Biden’s approval rating, which has improved but is still negative, where more voters disapprove than approve. And inflation continues to be a big concern for voters, and that doesn’t help an incumbent president and his party.

Democrats have an advantage over the abortion issue. One example: In Kansas, there was a ballot measure in August that would have removed protections for abortion rights and lawmakers would have been given the right to put more restrictions on abortions. That measure failed and turnout was larger than expected. We’ve also seen races become more competitive, and our generic House ballot shows Democrats competitive with Republicans when it comes to control of the House and the Senate.

The Trump factor

There’s also the Donald Trump factor. He’s not on the ballot, but the investigation into classified documents removed from his Florida home has put him in front – put him front and centre along with the investigation into the January 6 storming of the Capitol. He’s backing several Republican candidates and the prospect of another run for president is there, and the question is: How much will that factor into these midterm races?

Russia-Ukraine, foreign policy challenges

So, on the foreign policy front, we have asked voters in our national polls about how urgent an issue they regard – we give them a list of a number of issues and we say, “What is the most urgent issue facing the country today?” And one of the ones that we list is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it typically only gets a very low number, maybe 1, 2 percent when we’ve asked it. So, in terms of being at the top of the list of priorities, it – foreign policy is not there. Specifically, the Russia invasion of Ukraine that we ask about is not there.

And I would say just generally speaking, Americans don’t pay close attention to foreign policy, and as a general rule, it’s not uppermost in their minds when they go to cast ballots. It’s more kitchen table issues, things that they regard as affecting their day-to-day life, pocketbook issues like inflation, as I mentioned, consistently the top issue to Americans. So that’s the foreign policy question.

Loan forgiveness

We did ask about President Biden’s plan to – for loan forgiveness, and we found that most Americans approved, especially young people, not surprisingly, 18-to-34-year-olds. And we did notice at the same time when we conducted the poll, which was right after that announcement, his approval rating did improve significantly with young people. And it – up to this point in time, almost the first two years of his administration, he had been lagging with young people, that historically young people are a strong Democratic group. But President Biden, one of the reasons why he had been getting an overall low job approval rating, is because he was getting a low job approval rating among young people – again, a Democratic group.

But after this loan forgiveness plan, his numbers improved significantly among young people, and that – I would say that’s one of the reasons for his overall improvement – job approval improvement. And it’ll be interesting to see if there is any further improvement among young people or other groups after his latest decision on marijuana.

The United States Consul General Will Stevens has disclosed that Africa’s future rests in the hands of extraordinary young African leaders, who are committed to pursuing and achieving their dreams.

He spoke while delivering remarks at a reception in Lagos for the 2022 Mandela Washington fellows selected to participate in a six-week leadership programme, studying Business, Civic Engagement, or Public Management at U.S. colleges and universities.

This year, 55 young Nigerians participated in the Mandela Washington Fellowship (MWF) programme, which provided participants the opportunity to meet and interact with other young leaders across the globe and engage in high-level workshops with U.S. government officials, and representatives of businesses and organisations with interest in Africa.

“The U.S. government is committed to supporting extraordinary young leaders to achieve their dreams and it is remarkable to see that the Mandela Washington Fellowship programme is impacting communities through the outstanding and inspiring contributions of more than 24,000 alumni,” Stevens said.

He noted that the outstanding contributions of some YALI alumni such as Grace Jerry, founder of the Inclusive Friends Association; Nkem Okocha, founder of the MamaMoni Empowerment Foundation; and Orondaam Otto, founder of Slum2School Africa, has helped improve lives of visually challenged persons, women, and disadvantaged children in remote communities.

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The Consul General urged the new fellows to continue working on critical issues that will impact the lives of fellow Nigerians, which includes promoting entrepreneurship and education, supporting democratic governance, and building a strong civil society.

“As the new fellows take their place as part of the YALI generation, we look forward to learning about their inspiring work in Nigeria and effort to solve climate crises and build a sustainable, inclusive global economy that will shape Nigeria’s future,” Consul General Stevens said.

Established in 2014, the Mandela Washington Fellowship for Young African Leaders is the flagship exchange programme of the U.S. government-sponsored Young African Leaders Initiative (YALI) created to further the United States’ commitment to investing in the future of Africa.  Each year, U.S. Missions across Sub-Saharan Africa select accomplished leaders, who have established records of promoting innovation and positive impact in their countries.

Since the establishment of the programme, about 511 Nigerians have participated in the programme out of a total of 5,800 young leaders in Sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria remains the largest contributor of Fellows each year.

The Africa Polling Institute (API), a non-profit research institute has urged the Federal Government to strengthen existing policies, legislations and institutions that will help to create a sense of belonging, promote trust and foster good governance.

The organisation noted that such policies should provide an atmosphere conducive enough for citizens to thrive and fulfil their life aspirations.

The organisation said this on the backdrop of its latest report that put Nigeria’s Social Cohesion Index at 39.6 per cent.

The survey, carried out by API, with support from Ford Foundation, was conducted between May and June, to measure the country’s social cohesion index.

The organisation noted that there was a need for a national dialogue to help renegotiate the fault lines that currently threaten our shared existence as a country.

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Findings from the survey showed that the National Assembly was the least trusted public institution in Nigeria, compared to the Nigeria Police Force which was least trusted in the 2021 edition of the survey.

Building upon the 2019 and 2021 editions of the survey, the current edition captured the attitudes and perceptions of citizens using 13 key indicators.

The indicators included identity, trust, social justice, participation and patriotism, natural resources, governance, gender equity, impunity, corruption, polarization, peace-building, coping strategies, self-worth and future expectation.

On gender equity, the study revealed that 80 per cent of Nigerians agreed that boys and girls should have equal access to education, while 71 per cent agreed that males and females should be judged based on their qualifications, competence and track records.

It recommended that citizens should also discourage statements and actions that can impede the peace and unity of the country and avert conflicts, chaos and civil unrest, especially as the country gears up for the next general elections.