Category: Insight

Political leaders and their allies in Taraba State have returned to the trenches ahead of the 2023 general election. The Nation gathered that the next governorship election in the state promises to be a fierce one on account of the issues currently trending during discussions of the forthcoming election across the state. Already, the race has gathered momentum as aspirants for the top political office in the state are beginning to come out of their political cocoons amidst a fierce debate over which of the three senatorial districts of the state should produce the next governor.

Pundits say the situation is the same in the two major parties in the state, namely the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the opposition All Progressive Congress (APC). The Nation gathered that an alleged zoning arrangement that has been observed in the state since 1999 in determining which of the three zones produces the governor, is leading the many issues being considered by stakeholders ahead of the election.

According to Abubakar Lau, the state’s coordinator of Coalition for Democracy (CFD), both the ruling PDP and the opposition APC are conscious of the ongoing debate about zoning and none of the two is willing to make any mistake regarding the agitations of the people of the various zones. “For a state that has been governed by the PDP since 1999, and with the APC determined to build on its recent successes and make appreciable inroads in 2023, the cautions being exhibited by the two parties is understandable. It is obvious that this zoning is one of the factors that will determine where the pendulum will swing in 2023 here in Taraba State and only an unserious political party will handle such an issue carelessly,” he said.

With all the three senatorial district having tasted the governorship seat, the raging arguments, The Nation gathered, are in two folds. “We have those who insist that there has never been a zoning arrangement in the state and governors of the state have always emerged in open contests while there are those who say it is the zoning arrangement that ensured that all the three districts tasted the governorship between 1999 and today. This is just as a fresh debate on where the zoning arrangement should continue for is now raging,” Lau said. As we speak, neither the PDP not the APC has given any idea of what they plan to do as regards zoning the 2023 governorship tickets.

The indecision of some political parties on the zoning agitations is believed to be responsible for the reluctance of some politicians being touted as aspirants, to declare their ambitions. “Many of them are still bidding their time about declaring their ambitions publicly or making some political moves because they want to see what their various political parties will decide concerning zoning. Whatever the PDP and the APC come up with concerning the agitations for zoning will determine the aspirations of many of the current contenders and they all know that for certain,” Lau said.

The arguments

When the Taraba State PDP chairman, Lt. Col. Kefas Agbu (rtd) recently hinted that the party will maintain a zoning arrangement in choosing its governorship candidate in 2023, some prominent chieftains of the party in the state publicly faulted him, claiming the party boss spoke for himself. “Whatever is agreed by the party will be followed for our candidate to emerge. Remember, I am a product of zoning. It is zoning that brought me here. So I don’t think there’s anything that changed, I am not aware. Even with the zoning, we want the best person to emerge,” Agbu said.

The Nation also learnt that Governor Dariu Ishaku is a staunch supporter of the zoning principle. While he is yet to reveal who his preferred candidate is, the governor has not left anyone in doubt of his resolve not to support any candidate from the same Taraba South senatorial district as himself in 2023. “The governor strongly believes his own senatorial district should be exempted from the 2023 governorship race. He believes in the zoning arrangement and will want the party to abide with it,” an aide told The Nation on phone.

“In practical terms, the zoning arrangement has worked in Taraba and the people of our dear state want the system to continue. We urge the political class to avoid doing anything that will disrupt the arrangement. Jolly Nyame from the northern zone first took the mantle after which the late Danbaba Suntai from the central zone took over and now incumbent Darius Ishaku from the south. The zoning arrangement has been observed by the PDP which has been in power since the coming of civilian rule in 1999,” Ahmed Bape, a pro democracy activist, said.

Within the opposition APC, there is a lull in the agitation for power to shift. This may be because the party has not been in power in Taraba State before. Senator Emmanuel Bwacha, representing Taraba South in the national assembly, while responding to a question on whether his intention to contest the 2023 governorship elections was not against the power sharing arrangement in the state, explained that since all the three zones of the state had had the opportunity to produce the governor of the state at one time or the other, the contest should be thrown open to all the zones to participate.

Bwacha argued further that if the alleged zoning was to be continued, it should start from the last zone that produced the current governor and gradually rotate back to where it started from. By implication, the Senator, who recently dumped the ruling PDP in the state for the opposition APC, is saying that the northern and central zones should hold on while Taraba South should continue in office after Ishaku. It is after this that the central zone and then the northern zone will take their turns.

But there are chieftains of the party, especially from the north and central zones, who are supporting the clamour for power shift based on what they described as the existing power sharing formula in the state since 1999. To them, the southern senatorial district should excuse itself from the race. Expectedly, many aspirants from the north and central zones are seeking the ticket of the opposition party. But their southern counterparts are not deterred by the zoning debate.

Instead, the likes of David Sabo Kente, Danladi Kifasi and Ezekiel Afukunyo have remained in the race. A former deputy governor of the state said “APC cannot ignore zoning issue. Even our chieftains in Taraba south are now saying since previous APC governorship candidates had emerged from the northern zone, the next candidate of the party should come from the southern zone. They want the zone to be given the chances of producing the APC candidate for fairness within the party. So, it is an issue we are looking at.”

The aspirants and the permutations

Former PDP chairman in the state, Victor Kona, has already purchased his governorship nomination and expression of interest forms to signal his readiness for the race. Currently being touted as the preferred candidate of Governor Ishaku, the ex-party boss says he is determined to emerge as the next governor of the state. The decision of current party boss, Agbu escorted Kona to Abuja to purchase the form is already generating controversies amidst claims that the duo also obtained a senatorial nomination form for Governor Ishaku.

But the state chapter of the PDP on Tuesday assured that the party would allow a level playing field for aspirants during primaries. Agbu stated this during a stakeholders meeting in Jalingo. He said the desire for credible leaders and the transformation of Taraba would fail if the people are overruled and impose with a candidate during the process. “We have no anointed candidate, everybody is free to contest and win the election. We have no crack in PDP, we have been winning and we are set again to win”. Agbu assured.

Among those rumoured to be waiting for their parties’ position on the zoning agitation in their bid to rule the state come 2023 are Dr. Anthony Manzo, Minister of Power, Saleh Mamman, Bala Kona and Senator Yusuf Abu Yusuf of Taraba Central, among others. Many of these aspirants are yet to make categorical statements on their ambitions largely due to the ongoing zoning debate. Also in the race is Garba Umar, a former deputy and later acting governor of the state.

So far Alhaji Sani Abubakar Danladi, Deputy to late Governor Danbaba Suntai who was impeached and later reinstated by a Supreme Court judgement has shown interest. Danladi who later became the acting governor of the state was the flag bearer of the APC in 2019. He hails from Karim Lamido Local Government Area of Taraba State.

Similarly, Chief David Sabo Kente appears unstoppable in his determination to clinch the APC ticket. A grassroots politician who is not a new comer to the race, Kente enjoys both the sympathy and admiration of the people across the state. Kente comes from Wukari Local government area of the state and is seen as one of those favoured by the zoning agitations. His firm grip on the APC structure across the state is also seen as an advantage.

Meanwhile, Senator Bwacha, according to his close aides, will contest the 2023 governorship election come what may. “He is in the race to win and will not back down for any reason,” an aide said on Thursday. The Taraba South politician was appointed as Commissioner for Agriculture in 1999 by the then Governor Jolly Nyame. In 2003, he contested and was elected to represent Donga/Ussa/Taking Federal Constituency of Taraba State under the PDP platform. He is presently a third-term Senator representing Taraba South Senatorial and was the Deputy Minority Leader of the Senate. He dumped the PDP for the APC recently. The current Speaker of the state assembly, Joseph Kunini is an academician and politician who has also shown seriousness in the quest for the ticket of the PDP. While some pundits say he will not enter the race without the go ahead of Governor Ishaku, others say he is being propelled by zoning agitators back home. He hails from Kunini, Lau Local Government Area of Taraba state. Prior to his election as Speaker in December 2019, he was the Majority Leader of the State Assembly.

Like in many other states across the country, gubernatorial election will take place on 11 March 2023, in Ogun state. Across the state, the forthcoming election is being discussed just as governorship aspirants are daily signifying there interest in the job on the platforms of the various political parties, especially the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Incumbent APC governor, Dapo Abiodun, who is eligible to seek a second term in office, is yet to publicly declare his interest in the race.

Following the Saturday, October 16, 2021 victory of his loyalists at the state congress of the ruling APC in the state, Abiodun has been strengthening his hold on the structure of the party across the state. A factional group within the party, loyal to his predecessor in office, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, who currently represents Ogun Central in the upper chamber of the National Assembly, has been at loggerheads with the governor’s group.

Although, there were parallel state congresses organised by loyalists of Amosun, the leadership of the APC’s Caretaker/Extraordinary Convention Planning Committee (CECPC) recognized the officials produced by the governor’s camp, which it sent representatives to supervise and which was monitored by officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). That sealed the fate of Amosun and his supporters as far as the party structures are concerned.

But the victory of the governor’s camp renewed the face-off between him and Amosun. Feelers from the Senator’s camp suggest that he is determined to stop the governor’s second term bid at all cost come 2023. “Amosun is set to stop Abiodun from getting a second term despite the loss of the party structure to the governor. He will ensure Abiodun is not unopposed during the APC primary election. And there are fears that his supporters may also work against the APC should the governor emerge as candidate,” a source said.

That is the scenario in the ruling party as at today. Perhaps due to the uncertainties and the intrigues currently playing out, only one chieftain of the party has signified interest in the APC gubernatorial ticket till date while supporters of Governor Abiodun insist that he will declare his desire for a second term at the appropriate time. Within the camp of Senator Ibikunle Amosun, not less than two names are being bandied as possible governorship aspirants but none of them have come out to openly join the race.

Within the opposition PDP, the situation appears a little clearer. The hitherto troubled party has found a way round the intractable crisis that threatened its very existence since 20011. The party now has one state executive committee, as against the multiple factional leaderships it paraded since 2011. But it is obvious that the contest for the PDP governorship ticket will not be without intrigues. Already, not less than three chieftains of the party have indicated interest in the ticket.

The State Chairman, Sikirullahi Ogundele, the PDP would produce the next governor of Ogun State in 2023. He told the state Governor Abiodun and the APC to prepare to leave the government for the PDP in 2023. This is just as stakeholders of the party continue to insist on a free and fair primary election amidst fear that the Ogundele-led state executive committee plans to hand over the ticket to one of the aspirants on a platter of gold.

APC

So far, only Mrs Modele Sarafa-Yusuf, a former Special Adviser on Communication to Governor Abiodun, has indicated interest to contest under the platform of the APC. Addressing newsmen after her declaration, she said she is in the race to encourage other women in politics to make their intention known by declaring for various political positions. “I want to be a transformative and inclusive leader and to make Ogun the state of choice for people to live, work, and play because of the educational, economic, and cultural opportunities; safety, livability, vibrancy, and connectedness. I’m not running because I’m a woman, I’m running because I’m capable and because I know I can do the job,” she said.

But analysts say the ace broadcaster may not go all the way in the race as she does not have the political structure and deep pocket required for the governorship contest, especially the general election. “I think Sarafa-Yusuf is merely out to make a point. Once she has done that, she is most likely to leave the race for the real contenders. Her move is being applauded by women within and outside the state,” an official of the party said.

Although Governor Abiodun who enjoys the constitutional right to seek another term of four years in office, is yet to signify interest, close aides told The Nation that the governor will be seeking another term in office. “Given his sterling performance and the fact that much work remains to be done in the quest to make Ogun the state we desire, Dapo Abiodun will seek another term in office,” one of the governor’s Special Advisers said on Thursday.

The Ogun State chapter of the ruling APC recently said that the people of the state will determine the second term of Governor Dapo Abiodun. “For about three years now, Prince Dapo Abiodun has been solely preoccupied with building enduring infrastructures, expanding the democratic space and entrenching sustainable development in Ogun State; so much to the admiration of all discerning citizens, residents and visitors to the state. Ogun State people will determine the governor’s second term. His works speak for him,” Tunde Oladunjoye, APC spokesperson in the state, said.

Though he is yet to declare his next political move, Adekunle Akinlade, former House of Representatives member for Egbado South/Ipokia and 2019 Allied Peoples Movement (APM) gubernatorial candidate, is also being expected to throw his hat into the contest on the platform of the APC. The youthful politician contested the primary election of the party against the incumbent governor in 2019 but lost. He enjoyed the support of Senator Amosun then. He is still an avowed loyalist of the former governor but it is not clear if Amosun will be backing Akinlade for the 2023 race.

Another ally of Senator Amosun’s, Ramoni Olalekan Mustapha, the Senator representing Ogun East in the national assembly, according to party sources, is discreetly preparing to challenge Governor Abiodun at the APC primary election. Should Mustapha enter the race with the support of Amosun, analysts say the contest will be a keen one between the Senator and the Governor. Mustapha, a renowned grassroots mobiliser, is from the same Ogun East zone as the governor.

PDP

For now, three chieftains of the PDP are slugging it out for the ticket of the opposition party. And all the three have obtained the nomination form of the party ahead of the primary election. Former member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Ladipupo Adebutu stormed the national secretariat of the party in Abuja along with his supporters to pick the forms, saying afterwards that if the primary election of the party is conducted in a free and fair manner, he will be the candidate to beat.

Adebutu, the main financier of the PDP in Ogun state following the death of Senator Buruji Kashamu, enjoys the support of the leadership of the party in the state. An ally of former governor Ayo Fayose of Ekiti state, he is the leading aspirant in the race for the ticket. His state wide structure and deep pocket position him as the candidate to beat in the race. Barring an unforeseen surprise, he will effortlessly win the contest among the current contenders.

Last Monday, Segun Sowunmi, Atiku Abubakar 2019 presidential campaign spokesman, picked the nomination form to challenge Adebutu for the PDP ticket. He was accompanied to the PDP National Secretariat by a crowd of party chieftains and loyalists, who insisted that it was time to redefine governance in Ogun State, noting that in Showunmi, they had seen a window through which the status quo could be changed effectively. But analysts say beyond his Abeokuta, Ogun state, base, Showunmi may not pull enough cloud and clout to win the ticket.

Completing the numbers of PDP aspirants still in the race, Special adviser to Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai on Investment Promotion, Jimi Lawal, obtained the PDP nomination form to contest for governor in his native Ogun State. Lawal, an erstwhile APC chieftain picked up his nomination forms on Thursday in Abuja. The former managing director of defunct Alpha Merchant bank sought governorship ticket of the APC in 2019 but lost to incumbent Dapo Abiodu

We are well into the political season with the two major political parties done with their national conventions, and getting prepared to conduct primaries to select candidates for next year’s general elections. While the contest for the presidency has the nation transfixed, an equally intriguing battle is shaping in most states as ambitious politicians jostle for the bulk of the nation’s governorship seats.

In most cases, incumbents are finishing their second term leaving the contest open for aspirants without the advantage of incumbency. In a couple of cases like the off cycle Osun govership polls, Governor Gboyega Oyetola, is aiming for reelection after conveniently winning his party’s ticket.

In this first instalment, we take a look at what is shaping to be a fierce contest in states like Delta, Taraba, Ebonyi, Ogun, Kaduna and Plateau. All of these have incumbents who have served out their constitutional term limits – save for Ogun where Governor Dapo Abiodun would be looking to see off challenges from the camp of his predecessor and political rival, Ibikunle Amosun.

Common to the contest in each of these states are issues like zoning.  All crucial is the role to be played by incumbents who who determined to install the successors through overt or covert means.

Assistant Editor, Dare Odufowokan and Abdulgafar Alabelewe report on the state of the race for Government Houses across the country, looking at the personalities and factors that would determine the outcomes.

The All Progressives Congress (APC), a major opposition political party in Delta State has declared war against the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ahead the 2023 general elections in the country. Since the turn of the new year, the party’s stalwarts and chieftains have been urging the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to be prepared to quit Government House in 2023. The APC in the state has undergone some reorganizing and repositioning since the 2019 general election. Deputy Senate, President, Senator Ovie Omo-Agege, recently boasted that the APC in Delta State would dislodge Governor Ifeanyi’s PDP in the 2023 governorship election. “Whether PDP like it or not, APC will still win the presidency come 2023, no matter how struggle PDP will put in. For Delta, the people of Delta state will decide their governor and other representatives in 2023. It is not for one man or a certain pressure group to decide,” Omo-Agege said. His views have been severally reechoed by other APC leaders in the state including Engineer Omoni Sobotie, the APC state chairman and Senator Peter Nwaoboshi, among others.

But the ruling party says the opposition party is not in a position to defeat the PDP come 2023. The governor, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa on Wednesday said PDP in the state had never been stronger, cohesive and more united than now. “As individuals or groups, we must shun anything that will undermine the new spirit in the PDP. If we do this, I can say without any fear of contradiction that the PDP is poised to reign supreme from 2023,’ he said. Okowa dismissed claims that the ruling party is threatened by the opposition APC.

Observers of the politics of the state however say the 2023 governorship election in the state will be a tough one between the two leading parties. According to pundits, while the APC has gained a lot of confidence since 2019, the PDP, though still very much on ground across the state, will have to deal with a lot of internal issues that has to do with how its governorship candidate should emerge if it desires to win the next elections in the state. “PDP must put its house in order to remain in government because the APC is stronger than it was before now,” a source said.

Zoning

One issue that will play a major role in the next governorship election in Delta state is zoning. Already, across political divides, political elites in the state are divided into two groups of pro zoning proponents and anti-zoning crusaders, according to pundits. The first group consists of those who feel Delta Central senatorial district should automatically produce the next governor of the state in line with a rotation arrangement that have seen all the three senatorial district in the state having a shot at the position since 1999.

But the other group, made up of those who argue that there is not zoning arrangement in existence in the state as gubernatorial contests in the state had always had people from all the three districts in the race. There is also the argument that whatever arrangement produced governors in the past, has nothing to do with senatorial districts but ethnicity. The argument has been raging for months, especially within the ruling PDP. For the APC, it appears the party is poised to allow Delta Central pick its ticket.

Delta state is made up of the Anioma, Urhobo, Isoko, Ijaw and Itsekiri predominantly. But like all other states in the country, these groupings have been re-grouped into three senatorial districts as follows; Delta Central with eight local government areas (Urhobo), Delta South with eight local government areas (Isoko, Ijaw and Itsekiri) and Delta North with nine local government areas (Anioma, Ndokwa, Ika). The state, in all, has 25 local government areas. The PDP which has governed Delta state since the return to democracy in 1999 has produced three governors in all.

From 1999 to 2007, Delta Central produced Chief James Onanefe Ibori as the governor of the state with Chief Benjamin Elue from Delta North as his deputy. They were succeeded between 2007 and 2015 by Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan from Delta South with Prof. Amos Utuama from Delta Central as the deputy governor. In 2015, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa from Delta North has been in the saddle with Barrister Kingsley Otuaro from Delta South as the deputy governor. This is what the pro-zoning agitators are presenting as argument.

However, the anti-zoning groups are quick to tell those who care to listen that Ibori emerged as governor largely because his Urhobo kinsmen got the support of the Anioma people in their quest to produce the governor after the capital of Delta state was controversially moved from Warri to Asaba. To them, the emergence of Uduaghan as governor is also being linked to the support given the Itsekiri clan by their Urhobo cousins in 2007 on the prompting of Ibori while Anioma was supported in 2015 as a compensation for supporting the Urhobos in 1999.

Leading the pro-zoning divide is the Delta Central 2023 (DC-23), while the Ijaw Agenda for 2023 (DIA-G23) has been the major proponent of the ‘no zoning’ agenda. There have been insinuations that DIA-G23 is a campaign group for Senator James Manager, an Ijaw gubernatorial aspirant. He currently represents Delta South senatorial district at the National Assembly. Last week, several Ijaw groups announced that they will vote against the PDP if the party fails to give an Ijaw man from Delta South its guber ticket in 2023.

But some prominent leaders of the party insist that the governorship position having gone round the three senatorial districts, in the interest of equity, justice, peace and good brotherliness, should go back to Delta Central senatorial district, where it began in 1999. While the APC is not experiencing much agitation, the PDP is currently very troubled by the zoning agitation. Indications to this effect emerged at the party’s last caucus meeting at Government House, Asaba, where caucus members from Delta Central and Ijaw in Delta South senatorial districts engaged in severe shouting matches when the state chairman, Chief Kingsley Esiso, introduced the matter of zoning.

The contenders

Expectedly, a number of governorship aspirants from Delta Central are currently jostling for the tickets of their respective political parties. A couple of aspirants from Delta North have also shown interest in the race. Between the ruling PDP and the opposition APC, there are about ten serious aspirants in the race.

Omo-Agege

Senator Ovie Omo-Agege is the Deputy Senate President of the Senate, and the Obarisi of Urhobo land. He is the de-facto leader of the APC in Delta State and a governorship aspirant on the platform of the party. With the successful takeover of the APC in the state by his allies following the party’s congresses last year, observers of the politics of the state say Omo Agege is as good as the APC governorship candidate in waiting.

Pundits also posit that with the current political permutations in the state, especially with the agitations over zoning and allegations of imposition rocking the PDP, Omo-Agege stands a very good chance to deliver an upset in 2023. A seasoned politician with strong grassroots appeal and structures across the state, the Deputy Senate President is seen by many as capable of winning the 2023 governorship election on the platform of the APC.

Edevbie

Former Delta State Commissioner for Finance and immediate past Chief of Staff, Olorogun David Edevbie, who is a governorship aspirant on the platform of the PDP, is another aspirant from Delta Central. He is not a newcomer to the race having contested the governorship ticket of the PDP in 2014. He recently resigned from Okowa’s cabinet to pursue his 2023 gubernatorial ambition. He served as the Principal Secretary to late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua.

Touted as the preferred candidate of the Ibori political group, his chances of clinching the PDP gubernatorial ticket remain very bright not minding speculations that Governor Okowa may have other plans. Described as one of the hardest working aspirants in the race, The Nation gathered that he enjoys the support of majority of Urhobo political elites as far as the governorship race is concerned.

Gbagi

Olorogun Kenneth Gbagi, a criminologist, entrepreneur and lawyer is another PDP chieftain strongly in the race for the party’s guber ticket. A former Minister of State for Education, Gbagi was seen as the man to beat in the race for the PDP ticket until he got enmeshed in a protracted police case that saw him being declared wanted last year over alleged assault. In spite of that drawback, his associates believe he still stands a very good chance of clinching the PDP ticket.

But his alleged lack of support from both the camps of former governor Ibori and Governor Okowa is regarded as a huge challenge on his road to the ticket. But some pundit say Gbagi may benefit from the ongoing disagreement should the situation get to a stage where a consensus candidate from Delta North is required. “For now, he is more like the candidate for nobody and at the same time for everybody,” a party leader said.

Oborevwori

Now addressed as the ‘New Sheriff in town’ in political circles since he joined the gubernatorial race, Rt. Hon. Sheriff Oborevwori is the incumbent Speaker of the Delta State House of Assembly as a representative of the Okpe State Constituency under the PDP. He joined the contest for the PDP ticket last month and today, he is being touted as the possible aspirant that will get the nod of Okowa in the long run. Although the governor has not indicated any interest in the Speaker, the rumour has refused to go away.

Should he win the confidence of the governor, Oborevwori may cost home to victory in the primary election, but many observers are uncertain about his chances in the general elections. “Except the governor’s clout and structure help him, he will find the general election a herculean task, being without known political structure anywhere in the state outside his constituency. But

Manager

Senator James Manager represents Delta South senatorial district in the Nigerian Senate. He became a Senator in 2003. He is the leading Ijaw governorship aspirant in the race currently. His aspiration is believed to be the interest of the GIA-G23 group currently opposing the zoning arrangement and pushing for a governor of Ijaw extraction. Manager stands a good chance in the race for the PDP ticket given his wide political network as a fifth term senator in the state.

His greatest weakness, according to analysts, remain his inability to get the backing of the Ibori political family. Rumoured to be enjoying the support of Governor Okowa at a point, insiders claim the governor is not convinced about the Senator’s aspiration. But the unrelenting determination of Manager’s kinsmen from the Ijaw ethnic group is a factor the politician is banking on to press home his aspiration.

Michael

Chief (Amb) Uba A. Michael, an aspirant on the platform of the opposition APC is another Urhobo contender. The politician who recently described the position of a Delta Central lobby group, DC-23, on candidates for next year’s governorship election as being a far cry from the realities on ground, is insisting that he is the best candidate Delta Central can throw into the race. He vowed never to step down from the governorship contest.

Observers of the politics of the state are however of the opinion that there is no way Michael will pick the APC governorship ticket ahead of Senator Omo-Agege. “If truly he intends to see the race to the very end and contest the general election, we may see him decamping to pick the ticket of another party soon. With the APC leadership and structure firmly in the hands of Omo Agege’s allies, it is left to be seen how Michael will actualize his dream,’ a source said.

Otuaro

Deputy Governor and governorship aspirant on the platform of the PDP, Deacon Kingsley Otuaro, is another contender of Ijaw extraction. In spite of claims by him that Governor Okowa has endorsed his ambition, the aspiration of Otuaro is not flying high. Even in his native Ijawland, analysts continue to place him behind Senator Manager in the race for the PDP ticket.

He has severally been rumoured to have stepped out of the contest. This, and insinuations that Ijaw leaders have plan to ask him to leave the race for Manager continue to make his quest for the number one position a hard task.

Not a few chieftain of his party doubt his ability to win the general election for the ruling party. But Otuaro is quick to tell whoever cares to listen that he is the best man for the job after Okowa.

Ahead of the governorship elections in Ekiti and Osun States, Assistant Editor, Dare Odufowokan, examines the issues and forces that will determine the outcome of the gubernatorial contest in the two states.

The last few weeks have been intriguing in Ekiti and Osun States as the process leading to the gubernatorial elections in the two states started oficially.  Last June, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), announced dates for the off-cycle elections. According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu, Saturday, June 18, 2022 has been slated for Ekiti, while the Osun Statecontest will be held on Saturday, July 16, 2022.

The commission also announced that it has fixed January 4 to 29, 2022 for political parties in Ekiti to conduct gubernatorial primary elections and resolve disputes that arise from them, while those in Osun have between February 16 to March 12, 2022 to do the same.

Consequently, the stage is set for another round of epic battles between the dominant parties in the two states, the All Progressives Congress (APC), which is ruling in both states, and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which has vowed to take them back in 2022.

There are a dozen other parties preparing to join the contest but their chances are nor rated highly.

2023 undercurrents

As INEC and politicians in the two states prepare for the elections, certain undercurrents look set to determine the final outcomes. From all indications, the battle is not anyone’s to lose yet. However, each passing day reveals evidence that the final outcomes may follow some existential extrapolations.

Come June 18, 2022, the electorate in Ekiti will go to the polls to elect a governor to pilot the affairs of the state for the next four years. Given the current look of things, pundits say they will either elect the candidate of the ruling APC to succeed Governor Kayode Fayemi, who is rounding off his second term in office, or opt for whoever the PDP throws into the race.

In Osun, the scenario is a bit different as incumbent Governor Gboyega Oyetola of the APC, is running on his record in the last almost four years. “With or without Oyetola, the guber race in Osun is between the APC and the PDP. It will be fierce, almost a repeat of the 2018 election that saw APC running away with victory after a second ballot,” an analyst predicted.

For the two rival political parties, the elections are not just about the governorship seats at stake. There is the 2023 general election to consider as politicians in the Southwest prepare for the guber polls in the two states and this will impact greatly on the exercise.

Currently, the APC, with governors in five out of the six states in the zone is favoured. To remain in pole position ahead of the 2023 elections, the party must retain the two states. But the opposition PDP is desirous of taking over in the zone and winning the two states will put it in an advantageous position as 2023 beckons. This scenario explains why it is a fight to finish in both states for APC and PDP.

Also, the widely speculated presidential ambition of Fayemi is causing ripples within the ranks and files of the APC in the state. The party under the leadership of Paul Omotosho recently endorsed the governor for the presidential race, but many chieftains of the party across the state dismissed the endorsement, insisting that the APC chairman spoke for only himself.

Similarly, PDP leaders in the state are currently divided in their support for different presidential aspirants and interest groups ahead of the 2023 election. It is also being alleged that the desire of a prominent leader of the party in the state to seek the Vice Presidential slot on the party’s ticket is at the root of the current crisis within the party.

Internal wranglings

Not surprisingly, the two leading political parties are battling internal upheavals in both states where elections are slated to hold next year. And analysts are strongly of the opinions that the ability and speed with which the APC and the PDP resolve the crises currently tearing their ranks apart in Ekiti and Osun ahead of the gubernatorial elections, will determine who carries the day in both states.

In Ekiti, both the APC and the PDP are at present plagued by factions and internal wrangling in a bid to take over the soul of the two parties. In the ruling party, an aggrieved group which feel its members are being marginalised, continue to accuse Fayemi of hijacking the party ahead of the governorship election. Many pundits claim the feud is a lingering fall-out of the governorship primaries in 2018.

The situation is such that the APC is divided down the line into groups loyal, one to the governor and the other to some party leaders led by former minister Dayo Adeyeye. The anti-Fayemi group has, apart from holding parallel ward and local government congresses, challenged the congresses that produced the current party executive committees at all levels.

The situation led to the suspension of some APC bigwigs in the state, among them Political Adviser to the President, Babafemi Ojudu, and counter suspension of Fayemi and the APC state executive headed by Paul Omotoso. Though the national leadership of the party waded into the matter, the crisis has refused to go away.

With the election fast approaching and the groups refusing to sheath their swords, fears abound that parallel primary elections may be held, leading to legal issues that may affect the chances of the ruling party.

“What we are seeing today in Ekiti APC portrays a very bad omen for our party, but we will salvage the situation so that we can rescue whatever that remains for the benefit of all of us. There are divisions everywhere. I have decided not to contest this election, so that I can assume a leadership position mediating among aspirants,” Ojudu told The Nation.

For the PDP, the fierce rivalry between former governor Ayodele Fayose and his erstwhile deputy, Senator Biodun Olujimi, has split the party in two. This led to the conduct of parallel congresses at the ward, council and state levels, and the emergence of parallel executive committees at all levels with loyalty to the two camps.

In spite of moves by the national leadership to douse the tension by promptly recognizing the executive of the faction loyal to Fayose as authentic, Olujimi’s supporters are still carrying on as a parallel group and vowing to clinch the PDP gubernatorial ticket.

Observers of the politics of the state fear that with the exit of Prince Uche Secondus as national chairman, the Ekiti PDP primary election may end up in litigation as the Fayose faction will resist any attempt to outwit it.

Already, the Olujimi faction has approached a Federal High Court to seek among others, an interim order of the court restraining the national party from recognising the list from the ‘purported’ congresses of the Fayose faction.

In spite of the recognition of the Fayose group’s congresses during the pendency of the suit, the case is now at the Appeal Court. This is fuelling fears that the two groups may, by their actions or inaction, cost the PDP victory in the election.

Former governor and chieftain of the PDP, Chief Segun Oni, recently called on members and leaders to resolve all grievances for the party to stand a chance of defeating the APC at the election.

The situation in Osun state is similar for the two leading political parties. But while there is no peace in Osun APC at the moment, analysts say Governor Oyetola looks good to clinch the ticket of his party on Saturday, January 22.

“This is because there appear to be no visible challengers within the party. His opponents appear comfortable with ensuring he loses the general election,” Fola Jinadu of Osun Coalition for Democracy (OCFD), said on Thursday.

However, the tussle between the camp of the former governor and Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola and that of the governor is a source of concern for party members across the state.

The Osun Progressives (TOP), a group of Aregbesola’s loyalists, has vowed to stop Oyetola’s reelection at all cost. Efforts by party leaders to stem the crisis have failed woefully with the gladiators expanding the coast of the political war by the day.

Both factions elected new party executives at different locations in the state during the APC nationwide congresses. Gboyega Famodun was re-elected as the state chairman of the party as the Ilerioluwa Group held its congress at the Osogbo City Stadium, while Alao Olabisi was elected as the secretary. The Osun Progressives, on the other hand, held its parallel congress at the Onward area of Osogbo. Rasaq Salinsile was elected as the chairman of the faction with Adelani Baderinwa as secretary.

Determined to make things difficult for Oyetola, loyalists of Aregbesola dragged the leadership of the party to the Federal High Court sitting in Osogbo. The faction claimed it sought court intervention owing to the manner the congresses in the state were held. They challenged the legality of the congress presided over by the committee.

Consequently, there are fears that litigation may mar the chances of the ruling party. But the camp of the governor says there is little or nothing to fear. Remi Omowaiye, Commissioner for Works and close ally of the governor, assured that in spite of the lingering crisis, the party will win in 2022.

“We are a family and at the appropriate time, we will all put the interest of the party over and above all other interests and grievances so as to win the election,” he said.

Last month, chairman of the PDP in Osun State, Sunday Bisi, stated that the party was united ahead of the 2020 poll. “We had a successful convention in Abuja and all of us were together. We are now one big united family in PDP in Osun. There is no rift in our party now, all those things have been settled and they are gone,” he said. But feelers suggest that a fresh crisis is brewing and PDP may soon return to its troubled days.

With former governorship candidate, Senator Ademola Adeleke, leading five other aspirants who are vying for the governorship ticket, allegations and counter allegations are flying around again. Others who have collected expression of interest and nomination forms are Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi, Sanya Omirin, Prince Dotun Babayemi, Alhaji Fatai Akinbade and Dele Adeleke, Senator Adeleke’s nephew.

Earlier this week, the party had, as part of its efforts to reposition itself ahead of the 2022 contest, named Wale Ojo as Acting Chairman. The appointment was based on the ratification of a resolution by some PDP stakeholders in the state. It was intended to fill the vacuum created by the exit of Soji Adagunodo, who recently assumed the office of the Vice-Chairman, Southwest Zone.

Ojo, a former senator representing Osun East Senatorial district, reportedly belongs to the Adagunodo faction. His appointment was reportedly validated by all the local government areas in the state, as well as the verdict of an Osun State High Court, which recognised and affirmed the actions of the outgoing chairman.

Read Also: 2022: PDP battles uncertain future

But signs that the party is not about to know peace soon emerged when another faction announced the suspension of Ojo and some others on Thursday. Expectedly, the development has thrown the party into a fresh crisis that is capable of truncating its plan to oust the ruling party from Government House.

The Nation gathered that the current crisis within the party has to do with an alleged agreement by party leaders to field Senator Adeleke as consensus candidate. While some party leaders are insisting on the agreement, others are calling for a primary election to determine the candidate of the party. The looming crisis is worsened by the growing numbers of aspirants on the platform of the party.

Zoning as factor

In both states, especially in Ekiti, the issue of zoning has remained on the front burner ahead of the gubernatorial elections. Last week, a member of the House of Representatives and governorship aspirant, Hon. Femi Bamisile, warned it would be a dangerous mistake for the APC to ignore the ‘deafening’ calls by members from the south senatorial district to zone the ticket to the area. He is not alone in the call for zoning. Across party divides, the agitation has been rife.

Speaking on the agitations, National Treasurer of the PDP, Wale Aribisala, said: “Everybody is free to agitate for his senatorial district. But I believe that it is the best that should win in the primaries. Ekiti is a homogeneous state, we are all Ekiti. All we need now in Ekiti is good governance. Forget whether you are from South, Central or North senatorial district – that does not matter now. What we need in Ekiti now, especially considering the present poor state of things, is the person that can do the job.”

APC chieftain, Kayode Ojo, also advised agitators for zoning to drop the idea. He said at no time did politicians in the state agree on zoning governorship seat to any senatorial district in the state.

“There was no time politicians from any part of the state were denied of contesting for the governorship election, but Ekiti people have been deciding who would govern them. Everybody is going to go to the polls and Ekiti people will choose who they want. We are one family in Ekiti as we speak the same dialect,” he said.

In Osun, there are pockets of agitators urging the political parties to cede their tickets to Osun West. But the opposition to the agitation has been fierce too. One major group opposed to the call for zoning insists Oyetola must be allowed to enjoy a second term.

Even PDP members from the governor’s senatorial district are opposed to the call for zoning and may vote against PDP unless its candidate is from their zone,” a party source said.

“Interestingly, Governor Adegboyega Oyetola has in the last three years proved that one must not necessarily have his own at the helms to get the government’s presence infrastructure-wise and in all spheres. What you need is a leader, who would see the entire State as his constituency, make sure that development touches every part of Osun,” Ismail Omipidan, Chief Press Secretary to Oyetola said while insisting that the agitation for zoning is not a serious threat in Osun.

As plausible and sympathetic as the zoning mantra seems to be, the argument that political delineation shouldn’t be allowed to divide the states is also holding water across the state. No doubt, the consideration for and against zoning will play vital role in determining the outcome of the next guber election in the state.

The endorsement card

Amidst growing allegations that Fayemi has endorsed the Secretary to the State Government, Biodun Oyebanji, from Ikogosi in Ekiti Central, as his choice for the APC ticket, while his predecessor Fayose has already openly backed Bisi Kolawole, also from the Central for the PDP ticket, tongues are wagging over the propriety of such endorsement and this may affect how the people will vote during the elections.

In the same vein, the endorsement of Gboyega Oyetola by Osun APC Elders (Agba Osun) and the Famodun-led state leadership of the party are also being discussed with chieftains of TOP accusing elders and leaders of the ruling party of attempting to force the governor on the party as candidate.

But the governor’s men claim the endorsements were inevitable, given Oyetola’s performance in office. His supporters say only the governor can guarantee victory for APC.

But three prominent leaders of the state have vowed to work together to stop the governor’s re-election. Former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Lasun Yusuf, former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Najeem Salam and former Secretary to Osun State Government, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, jointly declared that APC cannot win the 2022 governorship election if it fields the incumbent.

Of course, the alleged anointing of a candidate in Ekiti by Fayemi has been denied, but it was said to have rattled many officials and an uneasy calm now reigns in the government circles in the state.

The alleged endorsement has heated up the polity and set some of the appointees of the governor who are eyeing his seat against each other. Chief of Staff (CoS) to the Governor, Biodun Omoleye, had to call an emergency conference where he specifically debunked the alleged anointing of the SSG or any other person.

“You might be hearing around that the governor has chosen someone as his successor. This is not true. The governor has not spoken in this regards. He is focused at completing his tenure well and he will not be distracted by rumours. The governor is the leader of the party and he is the one in charge,” he was reported to have said.

But many pundits insist the issue of endorsement may come back to haunt the parties and their eventual candidates after the primary elections.

Direct or indirect primary?

In both Ekiti and Osun, the mode of primary election used to nominate the gubernatorial candidate will impact the outcome of the polls. No doubt, the battle against the imposition of unpopular candidates will be carried into the process leading to the primary elections, especially with allegations of planned imposition already rife.

With some aspirants already clamouring for direct mode of election as against consensus or indirect being preferred by others, a showdown looms when PDP and APC commence the processes to select their flag-bearers.

A governorship aspirant in Ekiti State, Bamidele Faparusi, has told the APC to make the state a testing ground for the conduct of credible direct primary in the country. Faparusi, who resigned barely a week ago as the Ekiti State Commissioner for Public Utilities, described direct primary as the most credible and reliable way of electing a candidate of any party and an opportunity to give power back to the ordinary Nigerians. He made the call following insinuations that the party in the state is considering consensus mode of primary election.

In Osun, members of TOP are warning against any plan by the party to nominate Governor Oyetola as the consensus candidate of the party. According to a chieftain of the group, it is not true that the governor is in the race for the APC ticket unopposed.

“Just wait and see what happens next. He is not unopposed. There are APC chieftains ready to slug it out with him for the ticket. We just want to warn that no other mode of primary election other than direct primary will be acceptable to us,” he said..