During the campaigns, Bayelsa State Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate Senator Douye Diri canvassed continuity. His All Progressives Congress (APC) counterpart, David Lyon pushed for power shift. Who will the electorate vote for tomorrow? Senior Correspondent MIKE ODIEGWU examines the issues that will shape the poll.
Tomorrow will be a historic day for the oil-rich Bayelsa State. Voters will come out at their various polling units to elect a new governor. Based on statistics obtained from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) out of the 923,187 registered voters, 867,088 persons, who collected their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), will decide the future of Bayelsa by voting for their preferred candidates in 2,243 polling units.
Though Bayelsa has eight local governments and 105 wards, its terrain and topography have made election in the Ijaw homogeneous state a Herculean task. Most communities can only be accessed by water and INEC has said it will take three days to complete the electoral process and announce the winner.
Whoever wins the poll will take over the reigns of power from Governor Seriake Dickson, who hails from Sagbama Local Government Area and has made history as the only governor at the verge of completing two terms.
The election is a straight battle between the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Senator Douye Diri and the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Chief David Lyon. Other 43 political parties are in the race as pretenders apart from the candidate of the Accord Party, Ebizimo Diriyai, considered in some quarters as the dark horse because of some seriousness he had demos treated ahead of the election.
PDP versus APC
Undoubtedly, the election is between the two leading political parties, the PDP and the APC. PDP has since 1999 perpetuated itself into the politics of Bayelsa. It has been at the helms of affairs with its structures spreading across the creeks and hinterlands.
But, the flowing tide of PDP’s acceptance appears to be shifting. In the 2015 governorship election when the Petroleum Minister (State) and former governor, Chief Timipre Sylva, contested on the platform against Governor Seriake Dickson, who ran for a second term in office, there was a strong sentiment against the broom party.
The sentiment was used as a weapon to compromise critical institutions to stop the APC from winning the state. Most people felt that it would have been a double jeopardy for the APC to defeat an Ijaw son, former President Goodluck Jonathan, home and away. They felt it would have been disgraceful for the APC to sweep Jonathan out of the Aso Rock and still defeat his party, the PDP, at his home state, Bayelsa.
But, the APC has grown in stamina after the 2015 reelection of Dickson. The strength of the APC is attributed to Dickson’s style of governance, his unimpressive performance in office, growing poverty under his administration, collapsed economy, and his alleged autocratic style, which culminated in his political choices ahead of the poll.
Many people criticise Dickson for single-handedly picking the PDP’s candidate Diri, and his running mate, Senator Lawrence Ewrujakpor, without recourse to former President Goodluck Jonathan and other leaders.
Even before the preparation for the poll, the results of the 2019 general elections, showed that the APC was gaining momentum in the state.
In the 2015 presidential election, Jonathan, who contested on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), won Bayelsa, by landslide. Figures by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) showed that Jonathan defeated the then candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Muhammadu Buhari, with 361, 209 votes in the state. In fact, it was an abysmal outing for APC. Buhari, only scored 5,194 votes.
Also in the 2015 National Assembly elections, APC candidates only contested for formality. While PDP candidates posted bogus figures and were declared winners in their districts and constituencies, APC contestants were left to lick their wounds.
But, the scenario changed dramatically in the 2019 presidential and National Assembly elections. The margin of difference between Buhari and the PDP candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, was a remarkable departure from the 2015 election. Atiku polled 197, 933 votes to beat Buhari of APC, who scored 118, 821 votes. It is a difference of 79,851 votes, compared to 356,015 votes difference between Jonathan and Buhari in 2015.
There was also a close contest between the National Assembly candidates of the PDP and those of the APC. Beyond all expectations, INEC confirmed that candidates of the APC won two seats in the House of Representative and one in the Senate.
The results showed that the candidate of the APC for Brass-Nembe Federal Constituency, Isreal Sunny-Goli scored 41,150 votes to his closest of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Marie Ebikake, who polled 19, 279 votes. In Southern Ijaw Federal Constituency, APC candidate, Preye Oseke, scored 56,804 votes to defeat the candidate of the PDP and Speaker of House of Assembly, Kombowei Benson, with 34,104 votes. APC also won the East Senatorial District with its candidate, Degi Eremienyo Wagara, scoring 43,303 to win his counterpart in the PDP, who polled 32,363 votes.
The dynamics have further changed ahead of tomorrow’s election. Dickson is no longer contesting and many people view the choice of his candidate as a continuation of his reign. Therefore, observers believe that there is a general consensus and conspiratorial move to halt Dickson’s influence. Besides, those who caused the cancellation of Southern Ijaw results, which would have been used to upturn his mileage in that poll, are not longer working with him.
Though the APC message of liberation and better Bayelsa has resonated many people believe that it required more efforts for the APC to win than merely attracting crowd. The party is up against Dickson, known as a deft, calculative, cerebral and organised politician. Dickson with his bag of political tricks can always spring surprises to defeat his carefree opponent.
Diri:
Diri and Lyon are shaping the political discourse. The duo are from two different backgrounds. Diri, who hails from Kolokuma-Opokuma, the smallest local government in Bayelsa, rose to prominence by holding various public offices. He once served in the Ijaw National Council (INC).
But, he was propelled into mainstream politics by a former Managing Director, Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Chief Timi Alaibe, who nominated him to serve as a Commissioner during the administration of Jonathan as a governor.
His meteoric ascendancy began when Dickson became governor. He served as Dickson’s Deputy Chief of Staff, his principal secretary and was later handed the PDP’s Yenagoa-Kolokuma-Opokuma Federal Constituency’s ticket to represent the area in the House of Representatives. Diri was supported by Dickson to become a senator representing the Bayelsa Central District.
Diri, against all odds, became the candidate of the PDP through his godfather, Dickson. The governor stepped on powerful toes within his party, including Jonathan, Alaibe, Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State and other PDP power brokers to ensure Diri’s victory at the PDP primary poll.
The controversies and disappointment that led to the nomination of Diri have yet to be resolved. Alaibe, rated the most popular aspirant and the choice of Jonathan and other power brokers during the primaries, is still in the court challenging the process that threw up Diri.
Alaibe, who mentored Diri and brought him to mainstream politics, has shunned pressures mounted on him by Dickson to withdraw his case and throw his weight behind the PDP candidate. Alaibe rated as the political powerhouse of Diri’s Kolokuma-Opokuma Local Government Area, has remained resolute in his quest to retrieve the PDP ticket from Diri.
Lyon:
Unlike Diri, Lyon, who hails from Southern Ijaw, the largest local government area, rose to prominence through personal struggles and individual efforts. Lyon, who is married with three children, was famous for engaging oil multinationals operating in his community to live up to their social responsibilities. Lyon became an oil industry player, especially in the security sub-sector, when he proffered lasting solutions to illegal oil bunkering, pipeline vandalism and illegal refining of crude oil, which were rampant in Southern Ijaw.
Lyon, a Christian, has been a successful businessman and has expanded his business empire. He worked as a foreman in Western Geophysical Company LTD. But he is now the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Darlon Oil and Gas Nigeria Ltd, Darlon Group Nig.Ltd, and Arutex and Sons Nig.Ltd.
Lyon is also known for his philanthropic gestures. He became popular by empowering the needy and the physically-challenged persons in the state. Through his David Lyon Foundayion (DLF), he has been floating a functional scholarship schemes with beneficiaries drawn from the eight local government areas of the state. He provides regular financial and material assistance to the elderly, widows, physically-challenged persons and other needy individuals.
Lyon is not a political neophyte or a rookie in politics. He joined politics in the Third Republic. As a member of the defunct, National Republican Congress (NRC), he contested and won a councilorship election at Ward 4 in Southern Ijaw. But, the military incursion aborted his tenure in 1997. He was a founding member of the PDP in Southern Ijaw and was appointed a caretaker committee chairman of Apoi Olodiama Local Government Development Centre. He later joined the APC. During the trying times of the APC in Bayelsa, Lyon was said to have stood as its main financier. He kept the flag of the party flying and eventually won the admiration of most party members.
Also against all expectations, Sylva surprisingly drafted Lyon into the governorship race. He plotted a process that led to the emergence of Lyon in a direct primary, which caused some rumblings in the party following refusal of a former Minister of State for Agriculture, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri and a founding member of the APC, Preye Aganaba, who contested the primary, to accept the victory of Lyon.
Lokpobiri challenged the emergence of Lyon at the Federal High Court, praying the court to declare him the authentic winner of the primary. Aganaba has also instituted a suit asking the court to void the primary that produced the APC candidate. While Lokpobiri has instructed his supporters to vote for the APC, Aganaba has remained silent, refusing to partake in the activities of the party.
Those against Lyon claim he lacks the requisite academic background and good command of the English Language. But, his supporters insist that Bayelsa is in dire need of a candidate with the will to develop the state and not a grandiloquent orator.
How far can the running mates, Ewrujakpor and Degi go?
The two running mates are incumbent senators. While Senator Biobarakumo Degi of the APC represents the East District, Ewrujakpor, represents the Bayelsa West, the senatorial district of Dickson.
Degi, who hails from Basambiri in Nembe Local Government Area, is a grassroots politician. He is also an astute public servant. His selflessness and philanthropy made him popular among the people. Degi-Eremienyo studied Agricultural Economics/Extension at the Rivers state University of Science and Technology, Port Harcourt, graduating with a Bachelor of Science degree in 1990. He holds a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from the same university.
Degi is seen as a better politician than his counterpart in the PDP. The APC running mate started his political career in 1980s. He became a member of the local chamber in Nembe Local Government Area in 1990. He became the vice-chairman in 1993 and emerged the Chairman of Nembe Local Government area in 1999. The chairmanship made him closer to the grassroots as he was said to have used the local resources to touch many lives.
Besides, his emergence as the running mate was devoid of controversy. Analysts believe that Degi has added value to the campaign of the APC. His recent disqualification by the Federal High Court has become his major setback. The court, which gave judgement on Tuesday, four days to the election, in a suit hidden from the prying lenses of media, said the senator presented false information to INEC in his form CF001, following multiple variations in names contained in his certificates.
But Degi, who described the judgement as a travesty, said he had instructed his lawyers to seek redress at the Appeal Cour. He disagreed with the judgment saying the plaintiff he made the assertions could not prove his case beyond every reasonable doubt.
In a statement he personally signed, the senator said: “Upon been served with the court processes, I quickly denied the allegation of presenting false information to INEC by deposing to a counter affidavit wherein I clearly stated the circumstances leading to the variation forming the plaintiffs complain.
“I equally applied to the court to summon the West African Examination Council (WAEC) and Government Secondary School, Anyama – Ogbia to come with the particulars including photograph of the actual individual who sat for these examinations in order to ascertain whether it is any different from me.
For the PDP running mate, Ewrujakpor, a man of intelligence, is a close confidant of Dickson. He hailed from same Tarakiri clan with the governor. The senator served as Dickson’s legislative aide when the governor was in the House of Representatives.
In terms of academic prowess, competence and experience, Ewrujakpor is qualified to run as the deputy. Politically, however, Ewrujakpor is seen as a liability to the PDP. He has a low popularity rating politically.
First, his origin as a descendant of Urhobo ethnic group in Delta State, has always hunted his political adventure. His community, Ofoni (Ughelli-Urhie), is an Urhobo community in Sagbama Local Government Area. When he was made the senatorial candidate of the PDP in 2019, hell was let loose as many Ijaw stakeholders protested. Following his victory after the senatorial poll, some Urhobo groups acknowledged him as the second Urhobo Senator in the National Assembly after the Deputy Senate President, Omo-Agege.
His choice as a running mate to Diri attracted criticisms from some stakeholders, who insisted that they would not have Urhobo as their deputy governor in a homogeneous Ijaw state. It is believed that the sentiment may hunt the PDP at the poll.
Besides, the emergence of Erwujakpor as a running mate created a lot of bad blood in PDP. Many stakeholders believed it was against zoning the principles of equity, balance and fairness espoused by Dickson. The issue tore the PDP apart, with many voices telling the governor to reconsider his position. They told the governor that it stood logic in the head for him to insist that his kinsman, Ewrujakpor, should be a running mate, despite the fact that his Sagbama local government is about completing eight years of governorship.
In fact, many people in the state feel that Dickson’s insistence on Ewrujakpor is self-centered and in line with his ambition to succeed him at the Senate in case the PDP wins the poll. Stakeholders appealed to the governor to zone the position to the East and consider giving it to Ogbia, the local government area of former President Goodluck Jonathan.
Others argued that, even if the governor wanted the position to remain in his Western zone, he should consider Ekeremor and not his own local government, Sagabama. Following the pressure mounted on him, Dickson promised to reconsider the matter and explore an option of substitution in a stakeholders’ meeting. But, the meeting, when it eventually held failed.
Defections:
The chances of the PDP may be affected by the decisions of most Dickson’s appointees to resign their positions. Resignation letters dropped in torrents as the affected appointees switched their camp to the APC. The defectors were particularly angry, that despite the hullabaloo that led to the emergence of Diri, Dickson still ignored entreaties to balance the polity by zoning the running mate slot to Bayelsa East Senatorial District, especially Ogbia, the local government area of Jonathan. They felt that the choice of Ewrujakpor, who hails from Sagbama, the same local government area of Dickson was a selfish calculation defiling all sound political permutations.
The Jonathan factor:
The influence of Jonathan is a huge factor. Jonathan and his wife, Patience, felt slighted by the way and manner Dickson cornered everything to himself. Dickson after choosing both the candidate and the running mate have tried in vain to get the support of the former President. Though Jonathan has kept himself busy with international duties, sources disclosed that he is disposed to the ambition of Lyon. Also, his wife was reportedly prevailed upon not to attend an APC flag-off rally that was held in Ogbia, Jonathan’s local government area.
Recently, the body language of Jonathan’s family was revealed when Lyon and his campaign entourage visited Eunice, the mother of the former President. The mother gave her blessings to Lyon in Otuoke, Lyon was led to the home of Eunice by Ogbia leaders and Jonathan’s kinsmen, including a grassroots mobiliser and former Chairman of Bayelsa Environmental Sanitation Agency, Chief Robert Enogha, who recently left the government of Seriake Dickson to join the APC.
The APC candidate, who exchanged pleasantries and held brief discussions with Madam Jonathan, bowed before the woman for prayers. Jonathan’s mother, who spoke in Ogbia dialect, was seen beaming with smiles as she received the candidate and his team. Also, many foot soldiers of Jonathan and Alaibe have abandoned the PDP for the APC. There are strong indications that many PDP leaders are bidding their time to join the APC.
Also, the ex-militant leaders have declared their support for Lyon. A notable ex-militant leader, Ebikabowei Victor-Ben, popularly known as Boyloaf, who spoke on behalf of other ex-creek warlords, said the ex-militant leaders after due consultations, decided to adopt Lyon as their candidate for the poll.
Describing Dickson as an emperor, Boyloaf said the ex-militant leaders would work to dethrone to enthrone the government of the APC.
Lyon revealed the undercurrents in the Ijaw nation ahead of the poll. At the APC rally, the APC candidate devoted ample time extending greetings to Jonathan, E.K. Clark and and the Commander of the Movement for Emancipation of Niger Delta (MEND), Government Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo.
Local councils:
There is no doubt that Sagabama, the local government area of Dickson with 105,705 active votes will opt for the PDP. Apart from Dickson’s presence, Ewrujakpor and Miebi Bribina also hail from the area. PDP is also expected to win Ekeremor, which has 123,567 votes, but not by landslide, following the defections of key politicians, including a former acting Governor, Peremobowei Ebebi from the PDP to the APC. Both local government areas are from the Bayelsa West.
“In Bayelsa East, Nembe (89,866 votes), Ogbia (108,691 votes) and Brass (65,900 votes) may vote massively for the APC. For the first time in the history of Nembe, the two dominant communities, Nembe Bassambiri and Ogbolomabiri are on the same political page on Lyon candidacy. Brass has been the stronghold of the APC while Ogbia based on Jonathan’s factor and the allegations that Dickson hates them and has done nothing to develop their area may opt for Lyon.
In the Bayelsa Central, Southern Ijaw with 164,844 votes seems to have made of their minds across party lines on the APC candidate since Lyon hails from the area. The candidate is also very popular in his local government area. The People of Kolokuam-Opokuma with the least votes of 50,477 may give Diri their votes since he hails from the area. But the APC presents a big obstacle in the area following the anger among most of them that the PDP ticket should have been given to Alaibe instead of Diri.
Yenagoa with 180,263 votes, however, will be a battleground. Most non-indigenes are unhappy with the PDP because of the collapse of the economy of the state and may likely cast their votes for the APC. Also, the Epie-Atissa, a dominant ethnic group in Yenagoa have been canvassing votes for the APC. But the APC leaders need to summon courage to confront a member of the House of Assembly, Ofor Orji, who has been the game changer for the PDP in the area.
‘We want to assure you that as far as the credible processes are concerned, we shall maintain our neutrality as umpires. INEC is not a political party. INEC has no candidate in the election’
INEC, Police preparedness:
The National Chairman of INEC, Prof. Yakubu Mahmood, has insisted that the commission was fully ready for a free, fair and credible election in the state. Mahmood was quoted to have said that only an atomic bomb would change the plans of the commission. On two occasions, the chairman visited Bayelsa and held consultative meetings with stakeholders.
Mahmood said the commission was ready to conduct peaceful, free, fair, credible and conclusive election in Bayelsa and appealed to the traditional rulers to make suggestions and contributions that would change the narrative in Bayelsa.
He said: “We want to assure you that as far as the credible processes are concerned, we shall maintain our neutrality as umpires. INEC is not a political party. INEC has no candidate in the election.
“The choice of who becomes the next governor eat entirely in the hands of the people of Bayelsa State. We have delivered all the non-sensitive materials for the election. We have secured funding and made funds available to the Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) for the administration of the election.
“We have no problem whatsoever. We will deploy straight from our office in Yenagoa to the registration areas to make it faster for us to be able to open the polling units at 8am. We are committed to ensuring that voters don’t wait for INEC officials and materials to arrive. We should be there waiting for voters to come and vote.”
The Inspector-General of Police, Mohammed Adamu, also visited the state, held pep talks with policemen and attended a consultative meeting, where the candidates signed peace accord. Adamu read the Riot Act on critical areas including buying of votes and violence during the election.
Also 32,000 policemen detailed by the Inspector-General of Police to monitor the election began arriving in the state. The activities of the policemen are to be supervised by 15 Commissioners of Police, three Assistant Inspectors-General (AIG) of Police and the Deputy Inspectors-General of Police (DIG) deployed in the state for the poll.
Some of the Commissioners of Police are Garba Baba Umar, Sanusi Buba, Bello Makwashi, Usman Sule Gomina, Mohammed Gimba, Bashir Makama, Habu Sani and Danladi Bitrus Lalas, Omololu Bishi, Joseph Mukan and an Acting Police Commissioner Odumosu Olusegun among others.
The DIG of Police on Bayelsa Election, Anthony Ogbizi , assured the people of the State of their safety and promised that the security personnel would ensure level-playing ground for the INEC to conduct a free, fair and credible election.
Bishi called on the people to come out en masse to cast their votes for their preferred candidates on Saturday election. However the pendulum swings on Saturday, Bishi has words of advice to the people. He said: “Anybody that wins the election is a son of the soil and not a stranger. There is no need for anyone to fight because no office is worth the blood of the people.”