Following the emergence of George Moghalu as the Labour Party (LP) flag bearer in the off-cycle governorship election scheduled for November 8 in Anambra State, the party is set to test its popularity again. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI examines the factors that may make or mar its chances in the election
As the off-cycle governorship election in Anambra approaches, there is considerable speculation about Peter Obi’s potential involvement and whether his influence could secure a victory for the Labour Party (LP). The performance of the LP presidential candidate in the last general election has raised the party’s hope in the election scheduled for November 8. Although Obi did not win the presidency, his candidacy significantly raised the party’s profile and galvanised a substantial support base, particularly among the youth. For instance, in Anambra, the LP secured two of the three senatorial seats, five out of the 11 House of Representatives seats and eight of the 30 available seats in the state House of Assembly.
Therefore, Obi’s influence in Anambra politics is undeniable. His tenure as governor between 2006 and 2014 set precedents in governance that continue to shape the state’s political discourse. His transition to the LP and subsequent national exposure has further solidified his status as a significant political figure.
Nevertheless, the party’s performance in Anambra in the 2023 election could be attributed to the bandwagon effect of Obi’s involvement as the LP presidential candidate. So, it could be a different ballgame in a local election such as the forthcoming governorship. As a result, translating Obi’s influence into an electoral victory for the LP presents challenges.
Given the competitive political landscape in Anambra, the November 8 governorship election is shaping up to be a pivotal contest among the three major political parties participating in it. The parties are the ruling All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Labour Party (LP). The influence of the former ruling party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), has waned in Anambra to the extent that it is not regarded as a major contender in the forthcoming election.
Over the years, the Anambra governorship has attracted attention because it is like a dress rehearsal before the four-year general election cycle across the country. Two years before the next general election in 2027, the LP faces a litmus test in this year’s Anambra governorship. The party is experiencing internal challenges ahead of this year’s governorship election.
As a result, though the LP had gained momentum in Anambra, notably influenced by Obi’s association, its chances in the upcoming election have been weakened by several factors. This includes the disunity within the fold. Observers say there is a lack of cohesion within the party ahead of the contest, which may prevent it from presenting a united front. Following its success in the 2023 general election, it has faced numerous internal crises that have weakened it. This led to the exodus of many party chieftains in Anambra to other parties.
The departure of key figures, such as Valentine Ozigbo, ahead of the primary due to perceptions of favouritism has further complicated the party’s internal dynamics. Ozogbo’s decision to dump the party was predicated on allegations of betrayals and manipulations by the trio of Tony Nwoye, who represents Anambra North at the National Assembly on the LP platform; former aide to Peter Obi, Oseloka Obaze; and the LP National Organising Secretary, Chief Clement Ojukwu.
As a result, the circumstances surrounding the emergence of the party’s candidate could have been better managed since candidate selection is a crucial factor in every election. A source in Awka, the Anambra State capital, told our reporter that Ozigbo’s exit in February threw the party into disarray. His departure, he added, triggered a collapse of the power blocs that drove him out of the fold.
Before his exit, Ozigbo was widely acknowledged as the most formidable aspirant who could secure the ticket with ease, given his credentials in politics, support base, and network of backers and because he hails from Anambra South, which is favoured by zoning to produce the governor. He was the first runner-up in the 2021 governorship election when he contested as the PDP candidate.
A key turning point, our source added, was the party’s refusal to zone the governorship ticket to Anambra South. This move would have naturally cleared the path for Ozigbo and disqualified aspirants from other zones. Observers believe that development, coupled with the unending leadership crisis at the state and national level, was the final reason that compelled him to leave the fold. Ironically, according to our source, after Ozigbo left the party, those who worked against him fell apart, and the governorship ticket was eventually zoned to Anambra South.
The LP further complicated its case when its National Working Committee (NWC) declined to sell nomination forms to Senator Nwoye to vie for the party’s ticket. This decision led to allegations that the party’s leadership was backing the re-election of incumbent Governor Soludo of the APGA. Critics said the development was a setback for the LP’s ambition to win the November election.
Besides, there was little or no competition in the LP primary, which took place last Saturday, as it was contested by only two aspirants, Chief George Moghalu and Sir John Nwosu. Nwosu has, however, described the primary as a charade, adding that no contest took place. In a press release, the Director General of John Nwosu Campaign Organization, Ben Chuks Nwosu, said his principal never took part in the primary. He said votes were merely allocated to him to legitimise the process, as Nwosu had stepped down before the exercise when irregularities were noticed in the delegates’ list.
Be that as it may, the zoning of the ticket to Anambra South eventually paved the way for Moghalu, the former Managing Director of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), to clinch the ticket. Moghalu, from Nnewi, is relatively new to the party; he resigned from the APC on August 26, 2024, and joined the LP on October 1, 2024.
Afam Ilouno, a lawyer and LP chieftain in Anambra, said the party’s internal challenges may hinder its ability to present a united front ahead of the election. He said that though Moghalu has considerable experience in Anambra politics, he may not be able to galvanise the support of many party leaders and supporters to back his candidacy because he is relatively new within the LP.
He added: “As a new member of the LP, he needs to work extremely hard to make the party return to the height it attained in 2023. Again, he needs to get the backing of the party’s former presidential candidate, Peter Obi, to support his campaign because Anambra is his primary constituency. Nothing matters more in Nigerian politics than a politician’s local base.”
Given the strength of the opposition that the LP would face during the election, it needs to put its house in order ahead of the contest to live up to expectations. The state’s political landscape is competitive. Incumbent Governor Soludo has secured the APGA ticket for his re-election bid. The APC has also positioned itself to challenge the ruling APGA.
However, Anambra remains the stronghold of the APGA. The party’s incumbency gives it the advantage of showcasing tangible achievements under Soludo’s administration. The party’s confidence is bolstered by the belief that the opposition lacks the cohesion and credibility to mount a significant challenge.
Besides, the APC is the only party demonstrating significant intent to challenge APGA’s dominance in Anambra. The party is positioning itself as a viable alternative, capitalizing on the influx of prominent politicians from other parties. The APC primary was fiercely contested by seven aspirants, including Valentine Ozigbo, Obiora Okonkwo, Johnbosco Onunkwo and Nicholas Ukachukwu, who eventually secured the ticket.
The former founding member of Anambra PDP has been affiliated with multiple political parties over the years and served as a member of the House of Representatives from 1999 to 2003, representing the Bwari Abuja Municipal Federal Constituency. In January this year, he left the APGA and joined the APC, declaring his intention to contest the Anambra governorship.
Ilouno, who was a member of the Media and Publicity Committee of the LP Presidential Campaign Council during the last general election, said the APC is determined to consolidate its entry into the Southeast by winning Anambra in this year’s election and bringing the number of states it controls in the region to three. He told our reporter on the phone: “The APC all of a sudden is trying to have a firm grip in the Southeast, especially Anambra State. The party feels that Anambra State is the heartbeat of Igboland and that any party that takes the state has taken a major part of Igboland. Secondly, the party wants to dominate the state that produced many prominent Nigerians like the late Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe, the late Chuba Okadigbo, and the late Chukwuemeka Odimegwu-Ojukwu.
“Sadly, the PDP, which used to be the governing party in Anambra, has gone from being the number one party to being non-existent. As we speak, the PDP does not have a candidate for the forthcoming election.
“So, the current scenario favours the incumbent ruling APGA candidate, Governor Charles Chukwuma Soludo, who all of a sudden is doing well in the developmental process, unlike his lukewarm attitude at the outset that infuriated many people. However, they are seeing a better side of him now and are prepared to give him another chance. Soludo is the man to beat in this election, and it is his election to lose.”
The Anambra LP chieftain said winning the election would be an uphill task for his party, with the crisis currently tearing it apart. He added: “The APC has a candidate capable of challenging the ruling party, but the odds favour the APGA. For one thing, sentiments are in the ruling party’s favour, and for another, Governor Soludo is doing well now.
“There would be a battle, though. However, the APGA is in a pole position to win the contest. The APC and the LP will make their mark. Incidentally, all three major candidates are from Anambra South. This is because we have embraced zoning.”
Ilouno said it is not a good omen that Dr Nwoye and his Anambra Central counterpart, Chief Victor Umeh, who was elected on the platform of the LP, have conveniently remained silent over the crisis rocking the party, particularly in Anambra. He added, “For them to secure their re-election as federal lawmakers in 2027 on the ticket of the LP, they must make sure that the party makes an impact in the forthcoming off-cycle governorship election in Anambra State. This is because the two of them are the highest-ranking LP chieftains in the state; they need to put in some work between now and November 8 to show that the LP is still a force to reckon with in Anambra.”
On the recent Supreme Court judgment on the LP, Ilouno said politicians are trying to interpret it to favour their selfish agenda. His words: “The problem we now have in Nigeria is that when the Supreme Court or any court gives an order, politicians will start interpreting the judgment to suit their purpose.
“The recent Supreme Court judgment on the LP was categorical the leadership of a party is an internal affair of the party. It also affirmed that the Court of Appeal, which had earlier ruled on the matter, had no jurisdiction to entertain it. Based on that, the Supreme Court annulled the judgment of the Court of Appeal that had recognised Julius Abure as the party’s national chairman. So, ipso facto, it is clear that Abure is no longer the LP’s national chairman.
“However, we have seen snippets flying here and there, trying to change the interpretation of the Supreme Court judgment; they are trying to input other meanings to the judgment. The judgment is obvious. It is now up to the men and women in the LP to stand firm and rebuild the party and not allow it to die, to have a multi-party democracy in the country.”
A political pressure group under the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the Alimosho area of Lagos, Alimosho Voice, has congratulated a former member, Lagos State House of Assembly, Bisi Yusuf, on his emergence as leader of the Mandate Movement in the area, following the resolution of an 18-month-long internal crisis.
The development marks the end of a prolonged leadership tussle within the influential political bloc.
The rift had led to the formation of a parallel structure, a move that fractured party cohesion in the area until it was recently resolved by the Lagos state governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu.
The group’s public relations officer, Alabi Ade, said the crisis had caused significant damage to the political and developmental fortunes of the local government.
He explained that the leadership tussle had not only undermined political unity but had also adversely affected the wellbeing of Alimosho residents.
“Finally, the crisis over who is the authentic Mandate leader in Alimosho has been laid to rest. The blame for political misery, financial misappropriation in governance, and lack of adequate infrastructure in Alimosho lies at the doorstep of the Mandate Movement.
“While the going was good within the Mandate Movement, the residents of Alimosho suffered and are still suffering from their ineptitude. It is glaring that when the pot of soup started cracking and the soup began to leak, they parted ways,” he said.
The group urged the lawmaker to lead with inclusivity and engage the opposing faction to foster unity within the APC in Alimosho.
“We once again congratulate Bisi Yusuf on his emergence as the new leader of the Mandate Movement in Alimosho. He should be magnanimous enough to carry Enilolobo’s faction along. Their crisis cost us the presidential election in 2023, which we lost to the Labour Party,” the spokesman added.
National Secretary of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) Senator Ajibola Basiru, has rejected the award of Excellence in Leadership to be conferred on him by the Nigerian Economic Society (NES) Osun Chapter.
He accused Osun State Government of manipulating the society following the abrupt postponement of the award over what he described as undue political interference and manipulation by the Osun State Government.
NES had in a letter dated April 7, 2025 by its Chairman, Prof. Adeleke G. Aremo and Secretary, Adewale Sam-Aliyu intimated Basiru of the postponement of the award slated for Thursday 11th April, 2025, hinging their decision on unexpected turn of events, logistic and security complexities. No new date was fixed.
Faulting the postponement and rejecting the award, Basiru in a letter by his Special Adviser, Legal and Political Strategy, Barrister Othuke Amata Aso said the society has compromised the integrity of the award.
Basiru criticizeid the NES for what he described as an unprofessional communication regarding the “postponement” of the ceremony, calling the letter “convoluted” and “hastily prepared.”
Expressing dismay at the abrupt cancellation of the award, which was labelled a “postponement,” Basiru said the April 7 letter was lacking coherence and clarity.”
The APC National Secretary alleged external interference as the primary cause for the cancellation of the award ceremony.
According to him: “Reliable sources within the ranks of the NES, Osun Chapter revealed that the pressure to cancel the award ceremony came from the Osun State Government, specifically Governor Ademola Adeleke.
“The real reason for this shameful retreat is the undue pressure and shenanigans exerted by the Governor of Osun State, Mr. Ademola Adeleke, on the leadership of your society.”
The APC Scribe accused the Osun State administration of lacking excellence and being politically motivated, specifically calling out what he described as “mediocrity” and “cheap politicking” on the part of the state’s leadership.
Basiru, who said he initially hesitated to accept the award due to skepticism towards honorary awards, accepted it after encouragement from well meaning colleagues, and friends.
He rejected the recognition, stating that the actions of the NES Osun Chapter represent “a stain on its reputation” and a “disservice to the very ideals it purports to champion.”
Basiru advised NES Osun State Chapter to find a way to redeem itself and rise above political influence, reinforcing that merit should not be “subverted by the whims of those in power.”
Key oposition figures have opened coalition and merger talks as part of strategies to wrest power from the All Progressives Congress (APC). But the ruling party, which is not sleeping on guard, is also enlarging its coast by wooing more politicians into its fold. Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the challenge of alignment and realignment of forces ahead of 2027 polls.
Ahead of 2027 electioneering, key opposition figures are contending with unanticipated, but inevitable hiccups in their badly coordinated alliance talks. Observers believe the move has not generated enthusiasm because the foundation is shaky and the idea behind it is narrow, subjective and self-serving, thereby lacking the character and appeal of a movement.
Consensus building is a tall order. Unlike the alliance, coalition and merger talks that culminated in the formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC), which is the fusion of legacy parties, the mergers being mooted now may be facing a brickwall because it is anchored by individuals and not premised on group interest.
A major factor in success in the 2013 ‘collaboration plan’ was the similarity of ideas and unity of purpose among the leaders of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), led by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, now president; All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP), led by the late Dr. Ogbonaya Onu, Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), led by Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, a faction of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), led by Chief Rochas Okorocha, and the new Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), led by Dr. Bukola Saraki and his co-travellers.
It was not a day-journey. The road was long and rough. The expedition was tortuous and challenging. It was not for the feeble-minded. The ACN National Leader, Tinubu provided the leadership, which inspired his compatriots to sustain the collective vision to effect change in 2015. Also, the merger leaders or partners were able to carry along the rank and file in the parties, thereby enabling the novel initiative to acquire a national outlook and gain widespread support, even at the grassroots.
To analysts, these conditions are lacking in the Atiku-Obi-El-Rufai adventure, which seems to pale into a peculiar grandstanding. Despite its projection in the adversarial media, it has not produced a monumental impact.
But there is still time, as the next presidential poll is about two years away. Thus, the opposition gang of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai are hanging on hope, the elixir of life.
These individuals command no troops, having lost incumbency powers and the political wherewithal to sustain a vast fanatical followership. Neither are they fully in charge of the political parties they intend to use for bargaining. In their desperation, they miscalculate, based on the spurious assumption that the Tinubu government would lose popularity due to the transcient pains of reforms. While wiping ethnic sentiments by alluding to the electoral power and numerical strength of their bloc regions, Atiku and El-Rufai inadvertently revived cross ethnic curiosity, anger and resistance to polarisation and propaganda.
Division over merger in PDP:
There are discordant tunes in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which is the leading opposition party, because the talks are ill-timed.
The party is crisis-ridden, bogged down by protracted leadership squabble that seems to have defiled solution. Today, two chieftains- Senator Samuel Anyanwu and Monday Ude-Okoye- are laying claims to the position of the National Secretary. The governors on the platform of the party have asked the two warring stalwarts to step aside and allow the Deputy National Secretary, Setonji Koshoedo, to act. But Anyanwu is kicking against the compromise, hinging his decision on the recent Supreme Court judgment that is not understood by most party members.
Also, the position of the National Chairman is still vacant. The Acting National Chairman, Ambassador Umar Damagum, does not enjoy the support of all the members of the National Working Committee ((NWC). But he is holding on to the interim leadership, leaning on a court verdict that affirms his claim till December.
Two committees set by the party; Reconciliation Panel chaired by Gen. Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Disciplinary Panel led by former Senate President Adolpus Wabara, are battling with the herculean tasks. At the national and state levels, many of the PDP chapters are not at peace.
Amid the confusion, Atiku, on March 20 at the Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja, in company with El-Rufai, announced the plan for a coalition of the opposition against the All Progressives Congress (APC). He did it without carrying the party along after arrogating to himself the leadership of opposition.
Emphasising the significance of coalition building, Atiku said: “Opposition parties must realise that it is extremely difficult to dislodge a governing party, however unpopular it may be and however fed up the people may be with it.
“Coalition-building and outright mergers are critical for building the capacity of the opposition to achieve that goal. Our own history and examples from other countries prove that.”
However, many party stalwarts believe that it was a unilateral step; a solo effort devoid of wider consultation. Hence, according to other party chieftains, it is not a product of consensus. Without that critical collective involvement, there is no commitment.
PDP Governors: No to alliance
Frowning at the personal move being decorated as a collective agenda, PDP governors have disowned Atiku, ruling out any involvement in the merger. Rather, the governors, who are the pillars, financiers managers and ‘generalisimo’ of the party, said any political party or individual seeking a bigger platform is free to join the PDP.
Besides, the thinking in the party among top members is that reconciliation and crisis resolution should precede any inter-party cooperation.
Rising from its meeting at Ibadan, capital of Oyo State, the PDP Governors’ Forum chaired by the governor of Bauchi State, Senator Bala Mohammed, declared: “On the nationwide speculations about a possible merger of political parties, groups and / or associations, the Forum resolved that the PDP will not join any coalition or merger.
“However, the party as a major opposition party welcomes any party, persons or groups that are willing to join it with a view to wrestling power and enthroning good leadership in 2027.”
Shedding light on the resolution, the host governor, Seyi Makinde, identified a gulf between Atiku’s coalition motive and the task before the governors. He said the merger or coalition talks are unknown to the PDP, stressing that Atiku is on his own. He emphasised that the preoccupation of the governors, for now, is rebuilding the party, adding that it is important to put the house in order before thinking about 2027.
“As a party, we have not gotten there. Our first assignment is to put the party on a sound pedestal,” he said.
The Oyo State governor said it is improper for any chieftain to just draw the party into any arrangement when the party organs do not have clue on what is being done. “They have no clue of what is in this coalition. They also have no clue whether this is personal or whether you are doing this in the best interest of the party and the people of Nigeria. Those are critical,” he added
Unlike the former vice president who is personally looking for allies, Makinde said the governors’ resolution reflected the wide consultations with party stakeholders. Demonstrating the import of consensus, he said the Ibadan meeting was validated by the party leadership, which was also invited.
“The Acting National Chairman, National Legal Adviser and the National Organising Secretary were there with us. Other members of the National Working Committee (NWC) were waiting around the venue of the meeting, just in case there would be any need for them,” Makinde said.
Apparently chiding Atiku for jumping the party’s official and conventional procedure for inter-party relationship, the governor stressed: “There must be a process. If the managers of the party, the organs of the party are going into a merger or coalition, there is need for the managers of the party to know.”
While conceding to Atiku his right to associate with anybody outside PDP, Makinde said: “Politics is a game of interest. You must be interested, you must have alignment with the wider organs of your party before you go out to meet other people.”
Other party leaders, who supported the governors’ position, said the collective interest of the party should supercede the personal interest of an individual. “The real issue is those who want to run every time without following the party’s constitutional guidelines,” intoned Dan Orbih, Edo PDP leader, who hoped that the proposed congresses would produce new leaders who will repisition the platform.
A Board of Trustees (BoT) member, Commodore Olabode George, who described the decision to disown plans for merger and coalition, said it was classic and reasonable. He suspected that Atiku’s motive for merger is personal, saying that is in pursuit of his presidential ambition.
Faulting Atiku’s bid, George, a former PDP Deputy National Chairman, said it is a bone of contention, adding that it would violate zoning.
He, however, clarified that the PDP Governors’ Forum only made solid suggestions which would be subjected to the decision of the NEC and the National Convention, the highest authorities.
Objecting to at any alliance or merger talks, he added:”How can you expect an Iroko political party to go and join other parties? People should come and join us. We are a formidable iroko tree founded by the founding fathers. They (the governors) have made their suggestions and that is the starting point.”
George warned against the repeat of 2023 mistake by the PDP when it neglected zoning, saying that the party would pay dearly for it. He also said while Atiku is free to vie for president, PDP should not make him the flag bearer. He said if Atiku is given the ticket, the party would collapse.
“Atiku cannot be PDP presidential candidate. There is zoning, which must be adhered to. The North had eight years. The South should have eight years. Atiku cannot pick the ticket of PDP. If he picks it, it is the end of the party,” he said.
Other chieftains, who canvassed the same arguments, said for mergers to succeed, it should not be driven by a narrow, egocentric and particularistic motive of a manipulative actor, whose selfish ambition is to fulfil a marabout’s prediction.
They believe that it should be premised on the great idea of how to reorder society and improve the lot of the people.
Showunmi, a vocal Ogun State PDP chieftain, doubted if the merger talks are motivated by such ideas. He described the hurried resort to merger as a lazy approach, saying that it is misguided to think that unseating the ruling president requires only a merger. He said rather, PDP should package itself as a alternative route to power by resolving its protracted crisis and demonstrating the competence and capacity of a formidable opposition.
“It’s very lazy and extremely annoying that a political party like PDP is not working very hard in the field to try to make itself electable. And to do that, they need to stop the quarrel, one. Number two, they need to do a differentiation of why people should vote for them.
“You can’t be speaking from the same side as the ruling party. You are not as efficient as them, and you want people to dump them for you. You can’t be saying, ‘I want to be president,’ and your only pathway for president is not to get into the field and start working, but to sit there and be talking as some people are going to come and join you,” he said.
Showunmi, who queried the feasibility of the merger, retorted: “When you bring all six of you together, which of you have agreed to be the president? Then, all of you will bolt out of the arrangement, claiming that you didn’t get what you want. You who cannot even endure in a legacy party like PDP, are you the ones that will endure if you go to another party and you don’t get what you want?”
In his view, the opposition parties should present realistic, actionable and verifiable ideas, rather than relying on alliances.
“You are not going to come and defeat any incumbent just by thinking that you can say you are harvesting misery. The bottom line is that you must be bringing to the table realistic, actionable, verifiable, at least hopeful ideas,” he added.
Showunmi, who also warned against allowing divisive figures to infiltrate opposition parties, highlighted the potential danger of alliances with the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
He warned the SDP national chairman, Shehu Gabam, against fraternising with aggrieved defectors from other parties who would invade the platform with an intention to dictate and dominate, the same attitude that led to the destruction of their party.
Atiku adamant, says it is coalition or nothing:
Atiku, who is used to intra-party battles, returned the salvos from the governors, saying that the alliance talks are unstoppable.
“Indeed, the coalition train has left the station and would have multiple stops to bring on board Nigerians of all shades,” he wrote on his X handle.
The interpretation, according to analysts, is that there is an imminent parting of ways between the former presidential candidate of PDP and his political party in the build-up to the 2027 election.
Apparently hinting about likely defection from the PDP, Atiku said: “Whatever vehicle that will give us good governance in the future of our children and grandchildren; that is the vehicle we are going to ride on.”
At a meeting with a delegation of the PDP from Nasarawa State, Atiku insisted that the governors cannot stop the merger. The team was led by Alhaji Jibirin Sabo Keana and members of ‘National Opinion Leaders,’ headed by Yusuf Sheriff Banki.
Atiku said: “The pan-Nigerian coalition that I am building is in conjunction with other leaders and stakeholders across political divides and regions.The ‘Nigerian Movement’ is being powered by Nigerians desirous of reclaiming and rebuilding their country from across the nooks and crannies of our country.”
He said leaders from various parties, including the APC, PDP, Labour Party (LP) and others, have been meeting to forge a new path towards a better Nigeria. He referred to the initiative behind the coalition as “Sabuwar tafiya” in Hausa, translating to “a new pathway” in English.
A long standing ambition:
Despite his tutelage under the Tafida Katsina, the late Major General Shehu Yar’Adua, and his long years in politics, Atiku, according to observers, has continued to make costly mistakes. One of the wrong calculations is thinking that younger elements who are now governors on the platform of his party are not central to his quest to fulfil his presidential aspiration. Obviously, there is communication gap between them and his camp of old stalwarts.
Also, the feeling that only the votes of the North can take him to Aso Villa is a fatal error of judgment.
But, a Lagos PDP chieftain, Segun Adewale, believes that the former vice president is an asset and an experienced politican who can actually lead the party to victory.
“Atiku has been contributing to the party for years. Atiku would have won in the 2023 presidential election. Anti-party activities are what led the PDP to where it is today, where people are suffering. PDP would have been in power after the 2023 elections,” he said.
A stalwart, Dr. Ladan Salihu, who agreed with the assertion, rejected the governors’ views, warning that it is unconstitutional for the Forum to hijack the responsibilities of the National Executive Committee (NEC).
He suported the push for coalition by Atiku, saying that it would boost the chance of opposition at the poll.
However, Salihu who believes that Atiku will run again, also agreed that coalition should be the collective decision of the stakeholders. “Anything short of coalition will make President Bola Tinubu retain power in 2027,” he added.
Also, the Ogun State PDP chairman, Abayomi Tella, who supported zoning, said the governors’ suggestion may not be final because there would be room for further discussions.
If Atiku throws his hat in the ring in 2027, it will be his seventh attempt. In 1992, he vied on the platform of the proscribed SDP. But he was asked to step down for the late Chief Moshood Abiola by his sponsor, Gen. Yar’Adua. Although he bargained for the slot of running mate, it also eluded him.
As the acclaimed face of Yar’Adua’s Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), he paired with President Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 as running mate. In 2003, he made a futile attempt, which also became a factor in the feud between him and his former boss.
His third attempt was in 2007, when as the candidate of ACN, he ran against Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua, younger brother of his late mentor and leader. Atiku also struggled in 2011 at the PDP primary, but lost the ticket to President Goodluck Jonathan.
In 2015, he competed for the ticket in the APC, but President Muhammadu Buhari was preferred. After that, he retraced his steps to PDP, got the ticket in 2019 and lost to Buhari at the general election. Due to his penchant for defecting at will, he was labelled as an inconsistent politican.
Undaunted, he also ran against President Tinubu in 2023, but without success.
By 2027, Atiku will be 81 years. The question is: can he get the PDP ticket? If not, what are the options available to him?
Can Atiku build an opposition without PDP?
Some analysts contend that Atiku cannot be underrated because he has the clout. An experienced politican, he exploited the ethnic sentiments during the 2022 presidential primary of the PDP, ralling behind him morthern leaders who mounted pressure on delegates from the zone to give their votes to him. Suddenly, a presidential aspirant, Senator Aminu Tambuwal, withdrew from the race and teamed up with him. The former Sokoto State governor was later described by the former national chairman, Senator Iyorcha Ayu, as the hero of the convention.
But Atiku could not penetrate the G5 – the aggrieved five governors – who mounted a stiff opposition to his candidature and tilted support to the APC. The same scenario appears to be playing out now. Indeed, Atiku of 2003, who was popular among the members of the National Assembly and loved by PDP governors, is facing a difficult popularity test before the latter-day PDP Governors’ Forum. In the past, he was perceived as a bridge builder of sorts with tentacles across the regions. But, now largely perceived as a serial defector and man of shifting loyalty, that image of inconsistency may be an albatross for him in certain quarters of the party.
A chieftain, Nyesom Wike, who said Atiku is not an option, alleged that he does not keep to his words. It is evident in the way he opted for Ben Obi instead of Tinubu, and Ifeanyi Okowa instead of Wike as running mates in 2007 and 2023. Thus, there is a damage to trust.
In addition, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister said his view on power rotation has made him to offend pro-zoning crusaders who loathe any attempt to malign, marginalise and exclude their zones, particularly the South.
If Atiku defects from the PDP, it is not new. In 2006/7, he left the party for the ACN. He returned to PDP, to the consternation of Tinubu/Akande/Osoba forces, who offered him a refuge and shielded him fron Obasanjo’s arrows. Atiku also later left the PDP for ACN (APC), contested and lost the presidential primary, and went back to PDP.
Although he rode to political stardom on the wings of Yar’Adua, he has not exhibited the traits of a poweful and resilient planner, organiser, mobiliser and strategist critical to the formation, nurturing and stability of personal structure and political party.
While ACN revolved around the personality of Tinubu and CPC around Buhari, the former vice president has not been associated with a similar pathfinding initiative and action.
His defection from PDP, if he leaves, would be tantamount to his rejection by the governors, who have now taken charge of the party. The negative impact of defection often manifests in the decimation or shrinkage of followership as some supporters may refuse to also jump ship as a matter of principle.
There are puzzles: Atiku rode to Aguda House in Aso Villa as the arrowhead of the PDM. Where is the PDM today? Its core members are ageing, deserted by the stamina and vibrancy of old. Regeneration has not been contemplated by the inheritor of the legacy. The Peoples Front of Nigeria (PFN) was also founded by his mentor. It was a promising caucus held in awe and esteem. What became of it in post-Yar’Adua period?
It took Tinubu/Buhari/Onu almost a decade to build APC, can Atiku now build a new party between now and 2027 for his presidential ambition?
Options for the gladiator:
There are three options open to the eminent politician from Adamawa State. The first is to stay on in PDP as a founding father, open talks with the governors on his proposed merger or muster the strength, inspite of the predictable resistance, to fight and win the 2027 ticket.
The second is for him to rally his depleting support base and float a new party for the realisation of his long standing ambition to rule the country.
The third is to borrow an opposition party and mobilise other smaller parties to support his candidature under the guise of realignment, alliance or merger. Available for borrowing are SDP and Labour Party(LP), which is being torn apart by protracted leadership crisis.
The three options, according to keen watchers, are challenging.
The PDP governors appear determined to revamp the party, not for Atiku, who they disowned at Ibadan. But a window of opportunity can be exploited by the Atiku camp. The influence of the PDP Governors’ Forum on non-PDP states which are left in the cold like orphans have to be ascertained and assessed. Their delegates may be fascinated by a political leader ready to galvanise them.
But how united are the PDP governors? A source said PDP governors from the South may not show absolute interest in a 2027 calculation that leaves out consideration for zoning or power rotation, which the South may not be willing to compromise or sacrifice. This tallies with the view of the Lagos PDP leader, Chief George, who insisted that Atiku’s ambition is not a priority. “How can we explain to our people that the South should not have its eight years in Aso Rock? Don’t we have people who can run for president from the South?”he asked.
According to the source, the governors are also divided over the speculated presidential ambition of Bala Mohammed of Bauchi, who refused to step down for Atiku during the 2022 primary, despite the persistent pressures of influential northern leaders.
Indisputably, some PDP governors have demonstrated open admiration for President Tinubu’s style of political accommodation. Lauding the president recently, Governor Umo Eno described him as a great leader. “Tinubu will do eight years and we will stand by him,” he added.
Party insiders also confide that governors of Plateau and Enugu are gravitating towards the president in varying degrees.
Former Jigawa State Governor Sule Lamido described Tinubu as a formidable, daring and adept politician, who cannot be ousted, warning that a person who overcame multiple hurdles to get to the highest office will not allow power to slip from him.
Already, the main party has technically lost Wike, Minister of Federal Capital Territory (FCT), to the ruling party. Although he may campaign at other layers of elections in 2027 for PDP, the party can only expect him to support its presidential flag bearer in vain.
The cracks in the PDP may be to the advantage of APC in the long run. The trouble is compunded by the lack of leadership, which Atiku, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, former Vice President Namadi Sambo, Damagum and even the BoT cannot offer.
Fayose, former PDP governor of Ekiti State, who said Atiku and the PDP governors are fighting for their survival, pointed out the governors do not need Atiku to survive.
He also said the proposed alliance mooted by Atiku is a figment of imagination. “Atiku cannot step down for Obi. Obi cannot step down for Atiku. They cannot make sacrifice. How can the alliance work?” he queried.
As an observer put it, a further crack in the PDP, particularly among the governors, would leave the governors with the option of regressing to their states, with limited commitment to PDP at the centre. “The know the value of alliance. The only reason they are shying away is Atiku,” he said.
Can APC afford to sleep on guard?
The ruling party is sensitive to the gradual realignment of forces. First to jump ship was El-Rufai, who was dropped from the ministerial list, despite his high hopes. Although he and Atiku parted ways in 2006, when the former vice president was indicted by a ministerial panel headed by the former FCT minister, interests appear to be aligning.
El-Rufai is an effecive campaigner with a huge capacity for persuasion and propaganda. He is the major defector from APC, and from the CPC corner. His is in SDP, where he is being suspected because of his domineering posture. Although he had hinted that more CPC folks would also defect, none, so far, has followed suit. But a lot of consultation and wooing is going on undeground.
A major setback is that the founder of the CPC, elderstatesman Buhari, though in retirement, has categorically said that he will remain in APC. Sources said some of his former ministers may, like El-Rufai, opt out for personal reasons. Shehu Malami, former Attorney-General and Justice Minister and his Communications and Digital Economy counterpart, Isa Pantami may bid farewell to APC.
When Buhari was President, Malami and the cabal equated the bloc to the APC. But now that Tinubu of the ACN bloc is President, they are battling with fading influence. In the build up to the 2023 primary, there was no evidence that Malami worked for Tinubu. It was speculated that the lawyer wanted to succeed Buhari or at the worst, be a running mate to Godwin Emefiele, governor of Central Bank, who was said to be interested in the race. According to the sources, SDP may be their next point of call.
But the snag is that without Buhari, the potential defectors are not up to lightweights.
However, the visit by El-Rufai and his new club to Buhari, a man who once submitted that he was for everybody, but not for anyone, had made some APC leaders to be go back to the drawing board. Analysts said it is in acknowledgement of the symbolic 12 million votes, which has made the Daura-born a factor in national politics in the past.
APC National Secretary Dr. Ajibola Basiru took a spite at the CPC delegation to Buhari, describing them as idle, indolent political jobbers who are chasing shadows. “APC is not threatened,” he said.
Although there is no correlation between the visit of APC leaders to Obasabjo in 2014 and the subsequent electoral victory of the party in the 2015 presidential poll, APC leaders are not willing to leave anything to chances ahead of 2027.
Through their correspondent visit to Buhari in Kaduna, in greater numbers that dwarfed and intimidated their rivals, they succeeded in drumming home the point that the CPC bloc is still intact in APC and loyal to the President.
A prominent member of the caucus, Sumaila Kawu, chided El-Rufai for projecting his personal affair as group interest, clarifying that he left APC because he was not considered for ministerial job. He said Tinubu assisted the leader of the group, Buhari, to win in 2015 and 2019, adding that one good turn deserves another.
During the visit, the CPC bloc laid to rest the rumour of a planned defection, reiterated their support for Tinubu and pledged their loyalty to the ruling party. The communique was signed by 20 prominent members, including former Nasarawa State CPC Governor Tanko Al-Makura, former Katsina State Governor Aminu Masari and former Education Minister Adamu Adamu
Other signatories are Senator Ibrahim Musa, Senator Mustafa Salihu, Farouk Adamu Aliyu, Almajiri Geidam, Waziri Bulama, Dr. Nasiru Ladan Argungu, Dr. Dominic Alancha, Ayuba Balami, Osita Okechukwu, Chief Okoi Obono-Obla, Lucy Ajayi, Captain Bala Jibrin, Uche Ufearoh, Alh. Yusuf Salihu, Abubakar Maikudi, Mutallib Badmus, Alh. Muhammed Ahmed Datti, Muhammed Etsu, Chief Jerry Johnson and Alhaji Alkali Ajikolo.
The statement reads: “We, the undersigned leaders and committed members of the former CPC, who were part of those instrumental in the historic merger that gave birth to the APC, hereby issue this statement to clarify our unalloyed loyalty to our great party and express firm solidarity with the administration of President Tinubu.
“Recent misleading narratives suggesting a defection or disaffection among CPC stakeholders are false, mischievous, and should be ignored.
“We remain integral to the APC and are fully aligned with its leadership and vision. We stand firmly with the APC. We wish to state categorically that we have neither left the APC nor do we intend to leave.
“The CPC bloc remains one of the legacy foundations of the APC, and we are resolute in our commitment to the party and its progressive ideals.
“The APC is our collective project: As part of the legacy parties that formed the APC, we take pride in the sacrifices made to build a platform that promotes national unity, justice, and development.
“We will not allow some people to dismantle the party we helped to build through years of tireless work and dedication.
“We reject the politics of division and desperation. Attempts to create disunity within the party and the country do not reflect the will or position of the genuine CPC core members, and it is unacceptable.
We support President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda. We align ourselves fully with the economic and governance reforms being undertaken by President Bola Tinubu. Though challenging, these policies are necessary steps to rebuild our economy and secure a better future for all Nigerians.”
But, the CPC bloc also noted the complaints of the aggrieved defector. Therefore, it called for the resolution of internal discontent through due process, and better engagement and communication by the party leadership.
The statement added: “While we acknowledge that some party members may feel sidelined, we emphasise that such grievances are not exclusive to any one bloc. We advise those concerned to seek redress through constitutional channels within the party and not to resort to negative public agitation or hasty exits from the party.
“Our democracy and party must be strengthened, not weakened. At this critical point in Nigeria’s democratic journey, it is imperative for all APC members—especially those with deep roots in the party’s formation—to work together to preserve its legacy and help consolidate Nigeria’s democracy.
“We must avoid actions that erode our unity and the stability of the nation. We call on the leadership of the APC to scale up engagement with members across all levels. Strengthening internal communication will reduce tension, foster inclusiveness, and enhance support for the party’s programs. Party unity must be nurtured continuously in order to sustain the gains and to secure the future.
“The CPC family remains a vital pillar of the APC and will continue to play a responsible role in its growth and the progress of Nigeria.”
Former Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, Farouk Aliyu, said those spreading the rumour that the bloc will quit are mischievous.
He also described former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai as a “ bitter and selfish politician.”
“It is not true; there is nothing like members of the defunct CPC wanting to move out of APC. Our certificate, the certificate of CPC, was part of what formed APC. So, how can we leave? To go where? This is our party,” he emphasised.
Aliyu, who clarified that Buhari did not endorse El-Rufai’s defection, urged the APC leadership to engage all blocs in the party to prevent competition and disunity before the next poll.
He added: “Politics is about engagement. Politics is about the interests of groups, people and so on.
“That is what we are saying: engage more; not only with people from the defunct CPC, but even from the PDP, so that in 2027, there will be less competition.”
While few may be leaving APC, many are defecting to the party from the opposition parties, including PDP, LP and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). They include state and federal lawmakers, chairmen of boards and other actors. Others stay in their parties, but extend support to Tinubu. An example is Ekiti PDP leader Fayose, who is unapologetic about his support for the president.
Is SDP beautiful bride?
With two senators and a few other elected public officials in few states, SDP is augmenting its deficiency by noise making in the media. The party is being galvanised by its former presidential candidate, Adebayo Adewole, a rich lawyer and businessman with a gift of the garb.
SDP structures are not strong across the states and efforts to package it as the incarnate of Abiola’s SDP of Third Republic has been futile.
However, like the LP, the SDP can become another borrowed platform where salvos can be fired at the ruling party.
A gap in the membership composition of SDP now is lack of similarity of ideas. What the new defectors stand for contrasts sharply with the puritanical posture of old SDP members, who canvass the cleansing of the morally, economically and politically decadent society.
The deep suspicious is rooted in the clear belief that those defecting into the fold only requre a temporary refuge and platform for bargaining in 2027. Yet, their defection would compel the harmonisation of structures for the purpose of accommodating them as joiners.
SDP National Secretary Dr. Olu Agunloye, described El-Rufai as an intelligent person; an achiever. But he said his motivation for defecting should be scrutinised. “The key issue is not about how to welcome or celebrate him but what he is bringing on the table and what his motives and programmes are,” he added.
Adewole, who is also ambivalent about the worth of defection, said: “The issue is that I see him as an asset, as a hard-working person and he has a verifiable and measurable track record of public performance. What I believe is that he has his weaknesses which he needs to work on. But I am not his mentor or therapist.
“What I know is that Nigerians have a bird’s eye view of el-Rufai. They will consider some of the comments he’s made and some other aspects. Overall, Nigerians will say: ‘Here is a very good public servant.”
Kwankwaso and NNPP:
The influence of NNPP is not beyond Kano State, the base of its leader, former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso. The party is maintaining its hold on that stronghold when its founder remains a crowd puller. But further membership drive is shallow as the party has not been able to extend its tentacles to other states.
Kwankwaso is still nursing a presidential ambition. Some party insiders believe that if he returns to the APC early enough, he has prospects after the second term of Tinubu, when power automatically shifts to the North. Any alliance with Atiku leaves the Kano kingpin with nothing because both of them are pursuing presidential ambitions. The possibility of Kwankwaso accepting to be running mate to Obi is also remote, a source said.
Scores of NNPP members have defected recently to the APC, following the campaign for the enlargement of coast by Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, who has embarkedon an aggressive membership drive for the party.
The Kwankwaso factor has endured and any alliance with the party by APC will boost its chances in 2027.
NNPP is incapable of solely installing Kwankwaso as president.
LP in distress:
LP sprang surprise in 2023 presidential election when its candidate, Obi, through the support of scattered ‘Obidients,’ polled over six million votes. Social media warriors hailed the feat, saying that a third force had emerged in national politics.
Largely perceived as a ‘structureless’ party, the party shocked observers. This is Obi’s source of motivation as he gazes at 2027.
However, the party is now fractionalised and rudderless, with the three factions – Julius Abure, National Careraker Committee (NCC) headed by Senator Esther Nenadi-Usman and Lamidi Apapa – working at cross purposes. The three factions are interpreting the recent Supreme Court judgment in ways that suit them.
Nenadi-Usman’s interim leadership, backed by the lone LP governor, Alex Otti of Abia State, has taken over the control of the party, although Abure still holds on to the key of the party’s national secretariat.
The position of LP founder, the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC), is that Abure’s tenure has expired. But, Apapa, Deputy National Chairman (South), who made a futile effort to summon the NWC meeting during the week, is kicking. Citing the inexplicable judgement, he is laying claim to leadership, which he believes was vacated by Abure.
Already, the leadership squabble is taking its toll on the Anambra chapter where Abure and Usman conducted parallel governorship primaries that threw up two candidates – George Moughalu and Jude Umejiego.
To Presidential aide David Bwala, the unresolved crisis in LP is an indictment of Obi, a person who wants to rule the country, but cannot manage the party that should serve as vehicle to power.
Unless LP puts its house in order, it may not be an attractive merger or coalition partner. Other bigger parties may, therefore, seek coalition or alliance with the lone governor on its platform, and not the party as a group.
The recent Supreme Court ruling on the Labour Party (LP) leadership crisis has thrown the chieftains into confusion.
The Julius Abure-led faction, and the Nenadi Usman-led faction of the party claimed that the Supreme Court ruling validated their leadership.
The Supreme Court set aside the judgment of the Court of Appeal in Abuja, which recognised Abure as the national chairman of the Labour Party (LP).
A five-member panel of the apex court said the appellate court lacked the jurisdiction to enter any pronouncement in favour of Abure since it had earlier found that the subject matter of the dispute bordered on the leadership of a political party.
The court held that the substance of the case centred on the domestic affair of a political party, which no court has the powers to meddle into.
Consequently, the Supreme Court allowed an appeal that was filed by a former Minister of Finance, Senator Esther Nenadi Usman and Hon. Darlington Nwokocha, who are the chairman and secretary, respectively, of a Caretaker Committee that was earlier appointed to pilot the affairs of the party.
Following a leadership crisis that rocked the LP, the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the party resolved to remove Abure as the national chairman.
To fill the leadership vacuum, the party constituted a 29-member caretaker committee, with the former Finance Minister, Senator Usman as Chairman and Hon. Nwokocha as Secretary.
The decision was sequel to the outcome of an expanded stakeholders’ meeting of the party that was hosted in Umuahia by governor Alex Otti of Abia State. The candidate of the party in the 2023 presidential election, Mr Peter Obi, chaired the meeting where Abure was sacked from office.
In a swift reaction, Abure-led National Executive Committee (NEC) has threatened to sanction the Abia State Governor, Alex Oti, should he go ahead with the planned “illegal” stakeholders meeting, scheduled to hold on Wednesday, April 19, 2025.
It also warned the party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 election, Mr. Peter Obi, against any conduct or utterance, which promotes disunity within the party.
The party leadership said it would no longer take kindly to anti-party activities from any member “no matter how highly placed.”
In the same vein, the LP NEC also announced the sack of Hon. Afam Ogene from his position as leader of the party’s caucus in the House of Representatives. In his place, NEC appointed Barr. Ben Eternabene, as the new leader.
These decisions were contained in a communiqué read by the Party’s National Secretary, Alhaji Umar Farouk, at the end of a NEC meeting held at the party’s National Secretariat, In Abuja, on Monday.
Farouk said, “NEC in session in exercise if it’s duties , hereby caution the former presidential candidate of our great party not to participate in any action capable of undermining the peace unity, and integrity of the party as the NEC will not hesitate to issue stiffer penalty if found culpable.”
The party’s NEC also expressed satisfaction with the resent ruling of the Supreme Court affirming the supremacy of the party in determining its leadership.
Farouk further said, “Accordingly, NEC in session reaffirmed the Nnewi National Convention held on the 27thof March 2024 that produced the current National Working Committee (NWC) members under the chairmanship of Barrister Julius Abure.
“NEC in session condemns in strong terms the activities of the Caretaker Committee illegally established by Alex Otti and Peter Obi in a so-called stakeholders meeting held on the 4th of September 2024 in Umuahia.
“The Supreme Court admonished party leaders and members of the party to always abide by the constitution of the party.
“NEC noted that Article 14 (4) (B) gives power to call meetings only to the National Secretary with the approval of the National Chairman.
Accordingly, NEC warned all members to abide by the constitution of the party.”
Speaking specifically about the Abia State Governor, the communiqué said, “NEC in session notes the various anti-party activities of Gov. Alex Otti, including calling of unauthorised stakeholders meeting and usurping the powers of NEC.
“He also conducted LGA election using another political party. The governor has also intensified his effort to factionalize the party leadership by calling an illegal NEC schedule to hold on Wednesday.
“The leadership of the Labour Party is also aware of the governor’s plot to cripple our party before moving to another political party where he hopes to contest the 2027 governorship election.
“His anti-party activities is unbecoming of highly respected personality and can no longer be acceptable, NEC stated that it will not hesitate to discipline him in line with Article 19 of the party’s constitution.
“NEC in session noted that it would not hesitate to discipline any other erring member who violates the party’s constitution regardless of how big or powerful such individuals may be.
On Ogene’s removal as LP Caucus leader: “NEC in session reviewed the activities of the House of Representatives Caucus leader, Honourable Victor Adam Ogene and wishes to note as follows:
“That the voice of the current leadership of the party is not being heard in the hallowed lower chambers; that there is a lack of cohesion amongst our members in the House; that the leadership appears to be compromised; and that the ideology and programs of the party are not well represented.
“NEC in session, as a result of the aforementioned, decided to relieve Honourable Ogene of that leadership role for dereliction of duty. Consequently, Hon. Barrister Ben Etanabene, has been appointed by the NEC in session as the Labour Party’s Caucus Leader in the House of Representatives.”
The NEC subsequently mandated the NWC to communicate the decision to relevant authorities.
It also demanded that Ogene hand over all the party’s properties in his possession, particularly all the financial contributions made so far by other Labour Party lawmakers, which are in his possession to the party, and render proper account to the party with immediate effect.
The party vows to go to any length to retrieve all its belongings, including monies that belong to it, which Hon. Ogene is holding tight to.
Earlier, in his address of welcome, Abure, who chaired the NEC meeting said, “Recent developments within our party, particularly in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s pronouncement on the leadership matter, have necessitated this gathering.
“Let me begin by extending our profound appreciation to the Supreme Court of Nigeria for its courageous and principled stance in affirming the supremacy of political parties in managing their internal affairs.
“In its judgement concerning the Labour Party, the apex court unequivocally reasserted that leadership disputes arising within a political party remain within the exclusive purview of the party’s constitution and governance structures.
“Accordingly, the court declined jurisdiction in the appeal brought by Senator Nenadi Usman, thereby reinforcing the foundational principle of party autonomy.
“It is, however, regrettable that certain actors, most notably Senators Nenadi Usman and Darlington Nwokocha, have chosen to misrepresent the ruling, deliberately misleading the public and attempting to manufacture confusion through a purported “Caretaker Committee.”
“Let it be stated categorically: this so-called committee is both unconstitutional and illegitimate.
“Those who convened the meeting in Umuahia lacked the legal authority to do so, and they neither hold the office of National Chairman nor National Secretary as required by our party’s constitution.
“The Labour Party held a valid National Convention in 2019, whose tenure was constitutionally due to end in June 2023.
“In response to the extraordinary demands of the 2023 general elections, our NEC meeting in Asaba in April of that year, authorized a one-year extension, pushing the end of tenure to June 9, 2024.
“In line with this resolution and the constitution of our party, a fresh National Convention was duly convened and held on March 27, 2024, in Nnewi, Anambra State.
The leadership crisis rocking the Lagos State House of Assembly is far from over. The possibility of resuming plenary sessions anytime soon is bleak.
The ongoing litigation between Speaker Mudashiru Obasa and 36 lawmakers have brought the legislative activities to a grinding halt.
Although a date for the latest adjournment in the case between Obasa and the lawmakers at the Lagos State High Court, Ikeja, will be communicated to the parties involved.
The ruling is the latest development in the contentious case, which has seen multiple applications and counter arguments.
The case, which came up on Monday 17 March, was full of expectations that all cases would be withdrawn and the business of the House of Assembly would continue.
This was because the lawmakers were at the weekend preceding the March 17 adjournment in Aso Rock Presidential Villa, Abuja, at the behest of President Bola Tinubu to call the warring factions to order.
After the closed door meeting, they left the villa seemingly happy, chanting ‘on your mandate we shall stand,’ only for the case to commence on Monday without any hint that it would be withdrawn.
In fact, when the court sat in the morning and adjourned to 2pm, it was thought that they went to fine tune the withdrawals but alas, it was not so.
As the case continues, the business of making laws and making life easy for Lagosians remain on hold till further notice.
At the Federal level, the House of Representatives is required to sit for a minimum period of 181 plenary sessions in a year, the Lagos State Assembly’s inactivity is raising concerns.
However, there is no clear cut out period of plenary sessions in a year for state assemblies.
Political watchers are worried that should this case last the whole year, then nothing would have been achieved in the state and there is no justification for receiving their salaries and other related benefits.
Another issue why plenary may not hold as the cases are ongoing is whether the lawmakers themselves will attend plenary and cooperate with the Speaker 36 of them locking horns in court with Obasa.
It could still be the same four members (Ayinde Akinsanya, Mushin 1; Noheem Adams, Eti- Osa Constituency 2; Abdulkareem Ayodeji, Agege 2; Hon. Olumoh Sa’ad Lukman, Ajeromi –Ifelodun Constituency 1) on the side of the Speaker that may likely attend plenary which is not enough to form a quorum thereby invalidating whatever law that may emanate from the House.
In spite of the imbroglio, it is on record that lawmakers sat more than they did this same time last year.
It was gathered that they went on a six-week break and resumed almost at Ramadan period to sit once or twice a week because of the fast.
This year, lawmakers sat a period of seven times since the former Speaker, Hon. Meranda took over on January 13.
Within 49 days, she set a record of five times. Obasa sat twice. The first was when security operatives invaded the Assembly with the withdrawal of the security of Madam Speaker.
He presided with four lawmakers on his side and the second one was when Meranda resigned. He again presided and adjourned sine dine till date.
Obasa returned from his trip abroad after his impeachment to insist that he remains Speaker. The APC moved in and a lot of intrigues took place which led to his reinstatement. He also went to court to challenge the process that led to his impeachment, maintaining that he was illegally removed.
Oluwole Kehinde, Editor, Nigeria Weekly Law Report shares his perspective on the situation.
He says: “My position surrounding the whole issue of the Lagos State House of Assembly is a picture that shows that the Assembly itself is not independent and that all is not well. It erodes public confidence in the institution.
Moreover, the intervention by external forces in an open and brazen manner dictating what the assembly should do and how they should go about their business does not portend a good future for democracy. And I think that it is certainly not the best for our system.
To me, it is not right, it is not proper and it is condemnable. Unfortunately, nobody cares about what happens again around our political institutions because it is either people are settled or people are looking for what to benefit or people who have good intentions are shut out and all you have is promotion of political interest at the expense of the public interests and good governance.
At the end of the day, our politicians and their supporters benefit while society suffers.”
Activist and lawyer Monday Ubani advised the lawmakers to settle their differences and continue their legislative duties, noting that the state will suffer if the crisis persists.
“If they have cases in court, that means that they have not been doing their legislative duties. That also means they have not yet resolved the problem. Thank God they have not gone to the Rivers State situation.
“I think that they have been able to come to a compromise. Of course, the state will suffer for it but my advice to them is that they should settle whatever differences they have for the interest of the state and continue in their legislative duties,” he said.
Dr. Akin Fapohunda, Secretary-General of Western Region Organisation and member of Patriots, spoke about the constitution review and the imperative of restructuring as the key to federalism. Excerpts by EMMANUEL OLADESU
What is your view on constitution review?
We analogously have a huge “worn out cloth,” but we are patching it anew in 39 places. Is it useful to patch a cloth that is worn out in 39 places and expect a good outcome? The House of Representatives has come up anew with 39 proposed amendments. Members of the Senate have not come up with their own set of amendments. Eventually, we might have between 60 and 100 amendments in the Constitution.
What a waste of valuable time of the country and its people. What we need is a readable prose, a Federal Constitution in not more than 30 pages We need to have a serious document that can be readable in just 30 pages, which all Nigerians can easily memorize and know what it’s all about.
The original Constitution was written on four large sheets, using about 4500 words, including the 27 amendments since 1776, it now runs 7500 words. Printed on pocket-sized paper, it is just a 36-page document. The Nigerian Constitution on the other hand consists of 320 articles divided into eight chapters, running into almost 400 pages.
What form of Constitution would you suggest?
A holistic appraisal of our framework of governance is most appropriate, rather than just changing clauses that catche the fancy of some members of NASS. So, have they amended the revenue allocation formula? Have they acted on the winners take all electoral system? Have they amended the political party structure that would bring out well qualified candidates? What of the very bloated exclusive list of functions that only Abuja is burdened with?
Overall and holistically, what NASS is proposing is till vague. Is it the French model? Are we using the British model? Why can’t they say that what we need is a federal with concurrent regional governments; with a two tier Constitutions in a decentralized system, and a clause that permits referendum in order to ascertain the wishes of the various ethnic nationalities?
What is your appeal to the President on the constitution review?
President Tinubu should set the agenda. We need to decentralise. The views of eminent Nigerians like Dr. Emeka Anyaoku; Chief Afe Babalola (SAN), Mr Wole Olanipekun (SAN), Mr. Olisa Agbakoba (SAN), the late Chief FRA Williams; the late Professor Nwabueze and the late Chief Edwin Clark and Chief Ayo Adebanjo should be considered. They have made suggestions on the constitution review.
Let me give the President the credit that he is a very good person. When The Patriots paid him a visit last year; he said he was interested in the economy. I appeal to him to reconsider their suggestions.
The President should take time to read and digest the Peoples Republic, a book written by Obafemi Awolowo.
The report of the National Political Conference of 2014 was not implemented by former President Goodluck Jonathan. Can the report solve the problem?
Timeliness is everything. If the report was implemented in 2014, that is 11 years ago, it would have made some sense. But the atmosphere in the country then is very different from what we have now. President Muhammadu Buhari later rule for eight years. All the compromises of 2014 have expired. Even if it was implemented in 2014, in 2025, it is time now to forget the patch-up of 2014. We now need a fundamental change. A lot of water has passed under the bridge. Nigeria can no longer afford 18 additional states.
Before leaving office, former President Buhari took some items – railways and electricity – from the Exclusive List to the Concurrent Listst. It that not a form of decentralisation?
Our problem is more complex than applying cosmetic changes to them. Can States that are unable to implement 70,000 minimum wages take on power generation? Electric Power investment is huge. You need a lot of dollars to build turbines, do transmission lines, etc. Unless we decentralize government and scale down political leadership, we are heading nowhere. For the country to develop, we must reduce recurrence expenditure from 80 per cent to nothing more than 30 per cent to have enough money to execute capital projects.
We must cut areas of waste so that we can free enough money to do critical things for the next five, 10 to 20 years. In fact, we need five-year plans for our budgeting cycles.
I am going to credit the National Assembly for the creation of Regional Commissions. That is an admission that Nigeria must be run in a modular manner because each of the regions have peculiarities to be managed differently. If we have a Constitution that recognizes decentralized regions, each region should have control of affairs holistically. Each region will generate its own revenue and contribute to the maintenance of the Federal Government as if it is a club. We’re back to the time when the late Sir Ahmadu Bello said, look, I’m not interested in “Lagos” as it then was. I want to stay in Kaduna. Let (Sir Abubakar) Tafawa-Balewa go to Lagos and be the prime minister. We should make the center unattractive.
In fact, President Tinubu would have made a better prime minister of Western Region. He knows far more about the Western areas than any other part of Nigeria. Obviously, Mr. Peter Obi will be better as premier of the Eastern Region. Mallam El-Rufai is most ideal for the North West and so on. Nigeria needs to be managed in a decentralized manner. There will be positive competition. There would be massive development across the country. Should there be any mistake at policy implementation levels, eight regional governments cannot make the same mistakes simultaneously.
What is the position of your group, Atunto, on all these?
We need a Constituent Assembly without further delay. And it can be done. In fact, all these groups already have drafts that reflect what we have been saying for years. It is to just synthesize them and publish for Nigerians to debate and agree through a referendum. And within three months, we can promulgate a new constitution into law to replace the 1999 Constitution. And if we do it before the end of the year, it means the 2027 election will be based on the new framework where you don’t need to do more than win elections in your constituency and from there onwards, it will be an electoral college to get to higher offices. Once anyone win elections at the LGA Constituency level, he/she can be elevated to become prime minister without expending any further funds. No one will ever need region-wide campaigns to become Premier or nationwide travels to be prime minister. This will reduce the tension, obviate maneuverings and backbiting. There will be no need for 100 million naira to purchase nomination forms.
As a country, we have been fumbling and wobbling since 1999. We need to discuss how the 371 ethnic nationalities can live and coexist in peace, with focus on real development.
The eminent personalities mentioned by name in this interview have a very urgent duty to work concertedly with all civil society groups and leaders of ethnic nationalities across Nigeria towards the drafting of a Bill seeking for the Substitution of the 1999 Constitution for formal presentation to the National Assembly, as soon as possible.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s recent declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State and the appointment of Vice Admiral Ibok-Ette Ibas (rtd) as Sole Administrator, following the suspension of all elected officials, has sparked controversy, NTAKOBONG OTONGARAN examines the issues involved
The crisis in Rivers State cannot be divorced from the power tussle between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor in office and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike. The latter was the state’s governor from 2015 to 2023. He handpicked Fubara as his successor in 2023, expecting a loyal echo. Instead, the protégé rebelled, igniting a feud that spiraled into chaos. Fubara and Wike belong to the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the oil-rich state.
Indications that all is not well between the two political actors emerged in October 2023 when 27 lawmakers loyal to Wike purportedly defected to the ruling party at the centre, the All Progressives Congress (APC), and subsequently threatened to impeach Governor Fubara over fiscal defiance. Three months after, Fubara’s faction, with four rival lawmakers, allegedly demolished the assembly complex following an explosion. It was ostensibly to prevent the lawmakers opposed to the governor from sitting and making good their threat.
The climax came on March 17-18, 2025, when militants struck the Trans Niger Pipeline and Soku oil facility, which generates about $14 million daily to the country’s purse; a development which prompted Tinubu to act by suspending Governor Fubara, his depty, Mrs Ngozi Odu and all members of the Rivers State House of Assembly. These developments came after the Supreme Court ruled on the crisis, reinstating the 27 lawmakers and decrying the absence of a functional government as Fubara flouted their budget mandate.
Speaking on the matter, a political analyst, Peter Aka, blamed a “corrupt electoral system” for the crisis. Another commentator, Jerry Chukwueke, echoed this sentiment emphasizing Rivers’ strategic importance to the nation. He said, “It’s not just politics—it’s national security.”
Observers blame the degeneration of the crisis on the nature of the country’s federal structure and the weak institutions that were supposed to act as checks and balances within the polity. Realist theorists, drawing from the stern pragmatism of Thomas Hobbes and the cunning of Niccolò Machiavelli, view the state as a Leviathan tasked with imposing order amid fragility. In Nigeria—a nation stitched together by ethnic diversity, resource conflicts, and faltering institutions—this perspective casts emergency powers as a necessary shield against collapse.
Prof. Claude Ake, in his seminal Democracy and Development in Africa (1996), argued that African states often prioritize survival over democratic ideals when faced with existential threats.
Rivers State is no ordinary patch of land—it’s an economic jugular, pumping 40 per cent of Nigeria’s crude oil, the lifeblood sustaining a nation of over 200 million. The pipeline bombings and governance paralysis, realists contend, are not mere local squabbles but tremors threatening national stability, justifying President Tinubu’s intervention as a sovereign act to restore order.
Jerry Chukwueke, a public policy analyst and former advisor to the Imo State Governor, embodies this realist stance with a fervour that cuts through the noise. He declared: “Rivers stands apart—it’s a strategic linchpin. We’re talking about massive investments in hydrocarbon infrastructure—export pipelines, storage facilities, crude production.
“If Nigeria is to repay $15 billion in forward-sale debts accumulated over years, supply crude to local refineries like Dangote’s, and earn dollars to keep the exchange rate from spiraling into chaos, the president has no choice but to act decisively.”
Chukwueke framed the crisis as an “existential threat” to Nigeria’s one-dimensional economy, brushing aside constitutional debates with a pointed question: “What’s the alternative when oil theft and vandalism imperil the only resource keeping us afloat?”
For realists, the appointment of Vice Admiral Ibokette Ibas (rtd) as sole administrator is not a “power grab” but a bulwark, a necessary measure to protect the nation’s economic heartbeat.
However, critics argue this pragmatism risks legitimizing a perpetual executive dominance, a shadow that has loomed over Nigeria since its military past, threatening to trade democratic vitality for a brittle, enforced peace.
As expressed in the philosophies of John Locke and Montesquieu, the two other arms of government, the judiciary and the legislature, are institutions that are expected to act as checks and balances to the power of the executive in a liberal democracy. The voice of the people, as expressed during periodic elections, is also part of the checks and balances to the power of the executive.
However, in Nigeria, such institutions are weak and often yield to executive fiat rather than stand as guardians of democratic checks and balances. In the Rivers saga, this lens casts President Tinubu’s emergency decree as a rupture in the constitutional fabric, a move that sidesteps the very mechanisms meant to preserve governance by consent.
Afam Osigwe, President of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), articulated this critique with a clarity that reverberated through legal circles. He said: “Let’s examine the foundation of this emergency. Two explosions tearing through pipelines and a political feud between a governor and his former mentor—these are the threads the president has spun into his justification.
“But turn to Section 305, subsection 2, and you’ll find a far loftier threshold: war rending the nation’s seams, invasions breaching its borders, or a collapse so profound it shatters the state’s bedrock. What we have in Rivers is a storm. But it is leagues away from the cataclysm the law demands.”
Osigwe added: “The suspension of Fubara, his deputy, and the assembly is a manoeuvre that finds no sanctuary within our legal framework, no matter how you bend the text. Look to Section 11, subsection 4, and you’ll see a steadfast barrier, explicitly denying the National Assembly any authority to oust a governor during an emergency.
“Turn to Section 188, and you’ll search its provisions in vain for any whisper that a state of emergency justifies stripping an elected official of their mandate. This isn’t a gray area—it’s a transgression against the democratic edifice we’ve vowed to uphold, a breach that echoes through our legal heritage.”
Osigwe painted President Tinubu’s haste—24 hours from blasts to decree—as a reckless lunge. He said: “Like swinging a sledgehammer at your skull to ease a nagging headache.”
He called for Fubara’s restoration, saying, “He should still be steering Rivers through this tempest—the Sole Administrator’s oath is an alien artifact, unrecognized by our Constitution.”
Itse Sagay, a constitutional lawyer, has long warned that “emergency powers must not decapitate democracy,” a sentiment bolstered by the Supreme Court’s February 28 ruling ordering legislative function in Rivers.
Femi Falana (SAN) notes that President Tinubu chose suspension over enforcement, a pivot he labeled a precedent for “executive override at will”. Similarly, Peter Obi called it “reckless,” a cry echoed by liberal theorists who see institutional erosion.
PDP governors and the nonprofit, nonpartisan, legal and advocacy group, the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP), have filed lawsuits to pursue the matter in court. Osigwe foresees a Supreme Court showdown. “This will test the very bones of our democracy,” he said.
The spectre of authoritarian drift, drawing from Max Weber’s bureaucratic dominance and Carl Schmitt’s state-of-exception, casts a darker shadow over Rivers. This lens sees emergencies as gateways to tyranny, where crisis becomes a pretext for executive overreach, echoing Nigeria’s military-era decrees—like Decree 2 of 1984 under Buhari, which Tinubu once resisted.
Wole Soyinka, in his work, The Open Sore of a Continent (1996), cautioned against Nigeria’s slide into “dictatorship by stealth”, a warning that resonates as Ibas, a military figure, rules without a constitutional oath—Osigwe dubbing it “an alien artifact haunting legitimacy’s corridors”.
Ibas’ recent dissolution of the state cabinet and Council of Traditional Rulers deepens this unease, prompting Yakubu Maikyau, former NBA chairman, to call it an “aberration”, with Yiaga Africa warning of “democratic backsliding”.
Olusegun Obasanjo’s 2004 suspension of Plateau State’s Governor Joshua Dariye, a gambit later denounced as unconstitutional, looms as a spectral reminder, its ghost whispering of past overreaches that echo into the present.
Nigeria’s federalism, as Eghosa Osaghae argued in Crippled Giant (1998), promises state autonomy, a vow strained by colonial centralization and ethnic diversity. In Rivers, this lens frames the emergency as a federal assault on that promise, with Ijaw leader Benjamin Okaba declaring on March 20, “This is 1962 redux—a death knell for our self-governance.”
Okaba sees Wike’s Ikwerre influence and Tinubu’s Yoruba base tilting against Fubara’s Ijaw-led PDP, a power play masked as necessity. Falana blames the 1999 Constitution. He describes the constitution as a “unitary relic,” ill-equipped for such tensions.
The Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) warns of renewed militancy if the situation persists. The IYC fears were stoked by an incident witnessed on March 19, when Ogoni youths blocked Aba Road in Port Harcourt and set tires ablaze, shouting, “Tinubu, hands off!”
Federalism’s lens probes: Is this economic salvation or ethnic domination? Chukwueke’s call for a “reset”—“a chance to calm all sides”—clashes with Okaba’s dread of lost autonomy, a fracture Nigeria’s federal pact struggles to bridge.
As Rivers State navigates the uncharted waters of emergency rule, Nigeria stands at a pivotal juncture, its democratic future hanging in a delicate balance. Will President Tinubu’s decree forge a stable tomorrow, or will it unravel the threads of a democracy already frayed? For Rivers and beyond, the road remains uncertain—stability’s allure wrestling with liberty’s cost.
The Coalition for Good Governance and Transparency in Nigeria (CGGTN) has sent a “save-our-soul” appeal to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on the spate of politically motivated killings that is currently rocking Benue state.
The leader of the coalition, Comrade Igwe Ude-Umanta, made the appeal while briefing newsmen in Abuja on Sunday.
Ude-Umanta lamented the State has been witnessing series of killings since the Benue State Local Government Election Tribunal delivered judgment in favour of the elected councilors from the seven local government areas of Benue North West Senatorial District.
The coalition, in collaboration with Advocates of Social Justice (ASJ), alleged that some members of the National Assembly, whom they described as “enemies of Benue State” as the sponsors of the pockets of killings being experienced in the state.
Calling on the President to immediately wade in and deflate “the powers in Abuja backing civil unrest” in the State, the coalition noted that it is worrisome that people who are elected to serve the people are the ones also killing them indirectly, just to score political points.
“What will the people gain if they continue to loose their loved ones because you want a state of emergency declared in your own State. These rascals must be stopped. Do they think that Nigerians would fold their arms and watch these few elements pull down the Country?” they queried.
The group then called on the security agencies to immediately go after the serial killers in Benue state.
Expressing concern at the rising wave of killings in the state, the group alleged that street and campus cults are being used to perpetuate evil and in return blamed the crisis on the State Governo, accusing him of failing to provide security even when he does not have control over security apparatus in the state.
The group also accused some disgruntled persons in the State of being the mastermind of a plan to cause chaos and destabilized the state.
They claimed to have unearthed plans by these elements to mobilise more than 20,000 people for a protest march in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja in a bid to cause another chaos in the country.
According to Ude-Umanta: “We urged President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to watch his back as the people in question are around the government and they have access to funds and could do anything just to prove a point.
“Mr President sir, your enemies are within you but you shall overcome all animosity. They are people who have access to security and huge stolen funds that could be used against anyone or authority. Mr. President must know that his government is being attacked by the same people he appointed into sensitive positions, in the guise of getting at the Executive Governor of Benue State, the working governor.
“We know and they know, that the only thing they could do is to cause civil unrest and cause more death and hardship on Benue communities and Nigeria at large just to give the government a bad image. The Inspector General of Police must not take this information for granted as the days are near. The Police must be seen working just like the Honourable Chief Justice of Nigeria is working.”
Chairman of Ogun chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Chief Yemi Sanusi has expressed sadness over the demise of the Publicity Secretary, Com. Tunde Oladunjoye, describing him as a “pragmatic and loyal party man.”
Announcing the death on Saturday morning, Sanusi said Oladunjoye in his life time was always ready to stretch himself beyond convenience threshold to achieve the party’s goal, lamenting his exit was a great loss to APC, his family and Ogun State at large.
He prayed the Almighty Allah to grant the deceased Aljanah Fridaus, bless and prosper the family that he left behind and also fortify the party leadership and followers against untimely death.
Sanusi stated: “With total submission to the will of Almighty God, I announce the sudden departure of our State Publicity Secretary, Comrade Tunde Oladunjoye.
“I can recall that our paths crossed in 2018 when our party leadership appointed him, Mr Ayo Olubori and my humble self as Caretaker Committee for Ogun APC. Ever since then, I have known Tunde to be an irredentist, pragmatic and loyal party man who is ready to stretch himself beyond convenience threshold to achieve the party’s goal.
“Tunde Oladunjoye as the image maker of our party, would not tolerate any stain on the image of the party and would promptly deploy his vibrant pen to set the records straight.
“He fought for the party and any course he so much believed in but unfortunately, he couldn’t defeat death. No doubt he fought death to the end. His death is a great loss to APC, his family and Ogun State at large.
“I pray that Almighty Allah grants him Aljanah Fridaus, blesses and prospers the family that he left behind and also fortifies our party leadership and followers from untimely death.”
