The Nation Newspaper

Category: Politics

  • Obiano as the symbol of Ojukwu’s legacy

    There are many reasons why observers of the intense political activities leading to the November 16, 2013 gubernatorial election in Anambra State believe that Chief Willie Obiano will win the race. Some of the reasons are easy to see. But some are intricately embedded in the intriguing world of symbols.

    What is easy for all to see is that the APGA standard bearer is the most outstanding of the crop of candidates jostling for Governor Peter Obi’s job.

    For anyone with a modicum of discernment, it is difficult to miss the first symbolism of Obiano’s involvement in the Anambra gubernatorial race

    Interestingly, beyond the symbolism of a break from the belief that politics is reserved for the thugs and the blood-thirsty amongst us lies another symbolism – the symbolism of Ojukwu’s place in Igbo memory and its political leadership. It is a known fact that no political leader in the last half century has embedded himself in Igbo memory quite as completely as the late Ikemba of Nnewi, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu. Interestingly, with his passage and burial last year, it became even clearer that Ojukwu was more than an Igbo hero. Ndigbo know that Ojukwu’s twilight years were spent envisioning a future for them and constructing a roadmap to Igbo renaissance within the larger Nigerian family.

    The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) was a major part of Ojukwu’s grand plan to give Ndigbo a metaphorical political roof to shield them from the torrential rainfall of Nigerian maladministration.  Obi has also validated Ojukwu’s confidence with a 5-Stars performance. So, it is easy to see that among the many issues that will swing voters’ sympathies in the coming election is the symbolism of Ojukwu’s legacy and his ideals. An APGA loss at the polls in November, barely one year after Ojukwu’s heroic burial, will cast Ndi Anambra in the mould of a people without memory.

    Another symbolism is also the symbolism of the party APGA as the only standing political structure that Ndigbo can lay claim to in Nigeria as their own. There is this sense of ownership that APGA represents to them.

    As it were, Anambra is the only surviving turf for APGA and the only reason it still exists. Governor Peter Obi has proved that a thoroughly prepared leader can leave a resounding legacy even as a member of a minority party. Willie Obiano’s emergence as the APGA candidate has re-assured Ndi Anambra that there will be continuity in competent leadership and vision after Obi. When all these symbolisms are considered, it is hard not to see that Chief Willie Obiano is simply waiting to take over from Governor Peter Obi as the next governor of Anambra State.

    -Eze wrote in from Awka

  • Anambra 2013: How candidates may fare

    With the Anambra State governorship election just less than two months away, Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu and Assistant Editor, Remi Adelowo, analyse the chances of the four leading candidates in the race

    Given the intrigues and the sentiments that coloured the primaries, the November 16, 2013 governorship election in Anambra State promises to be one of the most keenly contested in the history of elections in the state.

    It is on record that since 1999, elections in the state have remained one of the most interesting because of naked desperation of political godfathers eager to hijack power and the attendant injection of mega bucks into the system. As would be expected, these lethal combinations had always bred thuggery, violence and high-wired politics of betrayal.

    Today, the stage is set once again. Issues that have been thrown at the table and the actors that have emerged suggest that the drama would not be less thrilling.

    The stage:

    A few days ago, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) disclosed that about 27 political parties would be fielding candidates in the election. Before the electoral umpire pruned the figure down to this figure, media reports said it rose to over 200 aspirants. In fact, it came to a stage where almost every rich and agile Anambra State indigene was either named an aspirant of some political party or a sponsor of an aspirant.

    To guide the power game, certain issues were played up as the determining factors for who would finally emerge the successor of the outgoing governor, Mr Peter Obi of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).

    The factors include the issue of zoning, the quality of the would-be successor, age and political platform, among others.

    On zoning, Anambra North Senatorial Zone, which is the only zone yet to produce an elected governor in the state since 1999, is being promoted by advocates of this factor as a central issue that must be considered before picking a candidate for the election.

    It has also been observed that the intellectual elites of Anambra State are particular about the quality of Obi’s successor. Insiders said this class of  leaders in the state had sworn that quality of leadership must not be lowered below what Obi offered. So, they are paying attention to the academic and professional background of the candidates. “We are worried that people of low intellectual esteem, who have money to throw around, have for long dominated the politics of the state and have therefore muddied the political waters. We can’t allow that to continue. This is the state that produced political heavyweights like the late Owelle of Onitsha, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, who was Nigeria’s first President, the late Dr. Chuba Okadigbo, a former Senate President and former Vice President, Dr. Alex Ekwueme. We must go back to that quality and we still have such men and women in their thousands,” said a campaign official of one of the frontline candidates.

    Another factor that may play a major part in who would get the final nod of the electorates is age. When Obi contested for this office for the first time, investigations showed that age was one of the key factors in his favour. Even then, ever active Anambra youths have sworn that they wanted change and one of theirs must mount the throne. This is still a factor today.

    Of course, the political platform of the candidates is a prime factor.

    These factors have elicited several posers in the minds of average voters.

    First, will the voters dump APGA soon after the exit of Dim Odumegwu Ojukwu, the Eze Igbo Gburugburu? That is, can Willy Obiano, enjoying incumbency backing, retain the seat for APGA?

    Second, what are the chances of former governor Chris Ngige, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who would be having a third shot at the election?

    What of Dr Ifeanyi Ubah, the well-advertised Labour Party (LP) governorship candidate and Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)? What are they bringing to the ring and to what extent can they go?

    To unravel these puzzles, one may begin from studying the strengths and weaknesses of the four leading candidates, who, in spite of their obvious limitations, are fancying their chances of emerging victorious in the election?

    Obiano on the wings of incumbency

    Out of the four leading candidates in the forth coming election, Willy Obiano of APGA is one of the two with little or no political experience. Apart from boardroom politics, which he can really boast of, Obiano is a newcomer into party politics.

    But as the candidate of the ruling party in the state (APGA) with the full support of Governor Peter Obi and the National Chairman of the party, Chief Victor Umeh, who is also from the state, Obiano would be the hard nut to crack.

    Factors in his favour

    Apart from the incumbency factor, which is perhaps his greatest asset in the race, given that the popular opinion is that Obi performed well enough, Obiano is considered by most of the intellectual  elite in Anambra State today as meeting up with their yearnings of who would succeed of Obi. A top professional accountant and banker, he served as an Executive Director of Business Banking at Fidelity Bank Plc, from where Obi also emerged to govern the state.

    A fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountant of Nigeria (ICAN), he started his banking career as a supervisor with First Bank of Nigeria in 1981 from where he moved to Texaco Nigeria plc., as an accountant. Mr. Obiano rose to the position of Chief Internal Auditor in Texaco before joining Fidelity. He holds B.Sc in Accounting and MBA, both from the University of Lagos.

    Obiano is also from Anambra North Senatorial Zone, the zone yet to produce a governor and so part of his campaign strategy would be to appeal to the sentiment of zoning.

    Another sentiment APGA’s Obiano may play up would be that of sustaining the political legacy of the late Ikemba Nnewi, Dim Odumegwu Ojukwu, who is still being projected, strategically, by Obi and Umeh, as the spiritual leader of APGA.

    Hurdles before him

    As a newcomer in party politics, Obiano has no personal political base or machinery to fall back to if things get awry. His greatest hope therefore is that his party leadership will remain united and behind him.

    In Nigerian politics of intrigues, this is a delicate situation, especially in a place like Anambra State, where godfathers may do anything to upturn the table.

    Another problem area is the task of convincing APGA members in the state who have some issues with the way Governor Obi allegedly starved them of funds and patronage. We gathered that Umeh could be the only person to do this tricky job to avoid some form of internal sabotage.

    This is even more critical as some are insisting that the leadership crisis in APGA has not been fully resolved, pointing out that Chief Maxi Okwu is still kicking.

    Ngige on a familiar turf

    There seems to be little doubt that Dr. Chris Ngige, a serving senator, is the most popular of all the candidates that would be slugging it out in the November 16 polls.

    The politician, whose first stint as governor of Anambra State (from 2003 to 2006) ended on an unpleasant note after he was sacked by a Court of Appeal sitting in Enugu, which ruled in favour of Mr. Peter Obi’s APGA, however, turned the setback into a political mileage due to his achievements while in office, in addition to how he successfully dismantled the suffocating yoke of godfatherism in Anambra State politics.

    Though he lost narrowly to Obi in his second attempt at the governorship election in 2010, the University of Nigeria-trained medical doctor since 2003 when he vacated office has assumed a larger-than-life image, while also boasting of a cult-like followership across the state.

    In the 2011 National Assembly elections and the re-run, Ngige defeated the ruling party’s candidate, Professor Dora Akunyili, a victory that further confirmed his acceptance and popularity in the state.

    Also working in Ngige’s favour are the achievements he recorded as a governor in the area of road construction in remote areas of the state and his solid political structures which have remained intact in the last few years and will surely come in handy when the election fever reaches a crescendo in the next few weeks.

    The odds against him

    His popularity notwithstanding, Ngige, as the candidate of All Progressives Congress, may have to scale some hurdles to win the election.

    We gathered from reliable sources that one of the issues that may be used against the  APC flagbearer, is the recent controversy over the relocation of some Anambra State indigenes from Lagos State. Ngige’s political opponents are already making references to this matter in the villages and at public functions, alleging that his reaction to the incident suggest that he is an Igbo hater. To retain his wide support, the APC candidate may need to do something tangible to correct that impression especially since the Lagos State governor, Raji Fashola has formally apologised for the incident.

    Zoning as a campaign issue may also be used against Ngige, The Nation reliably gathered. The argument is that since the creation of the state in 1991, no indigene of Anambra North Senatorial Zone has been elected as governor. Outgoing governor, Obi, has continued to harp on this to garner support for his party’s candidate, who hails from the zone.

    Besides this, sources in Anambra State confirmed that opponents of Ngige are already alleging that he joined a ‘wrong’ political party. APC, they claimed, is not an Igbo party.

    They also cite an alleged varied interests in Anambra APC, pointing at the circumstances that led to Senator Annie Okonkwo’s recent withdrawal as the campaign helmsman of Ngige’s campaign.

    Though Okonkwo has severally pledged support for Ngige, the opponents say there are still some grey areas that needed to be ironed out between the two politicians in order to present a formidable and united front for the election.

    Ubah dares the odds

    In the camp of the wealthy businessman, Ifeanyi Patrick Ubah, the Labour Party candidate, there is strong optimism that is quite infectious.

    Not a few of Ubah’s supporters believe that the oil whizkid who owns Capital Oil and Gas, has all it takes to spring a big surprise in the election in which he is widely adjudged as one of the most politically inexperienced of the four leading governorship candidates.

    Until his foray into politics recently, Ubah, 42, has made a name and a huge fortune in the private sector where he plays big in the downstream sector of the oil industry.

    In the same vein, particularly in the last two years, controversy has continued to trail almost every business and political moves of the businessman.

    From his alleged involvement in the oil subsidy saga; his business-gone-awry relationship with another Anambra State-born business mogul, Cosmos Maduka, which degenerated into a media war, and the alleged take-over of his company by the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON), Ubah appears to be more at home with controversies.

    His strengths

    But those who believe in Ubah’s candidacy are of the opinion that all these may not negatively affect his chances at the polls.

    Boasting a deep pocket to prosecute a money guzzling governorship campaign, Ubah was the first to jumpstart his campaign about two weeks ago at a well attended rally, graced by popular Nollywood stars, which held in the commercial city of Onitsha.

    Analysts also contend that his endorsement by several associations, which include the Nigeria Labour Congress (NUJ), Traders Associations, the Catholic Church, to mention but a few, may count in his favour at the polls.

    Conscious of the influence of the Catholic Church to determine the outcome of elections in the state, Ubah’s endorsement by the church is considered as significant. He is not taking any chances in this area, considering that he recently bankrolled the construction of a cathedral for the church in Nnewi, with a provision of 200 tombs for Bishops.

    And in the area of generating massive publicity for his campaign, Ubah appears to be leading the pack among all the candidates, at least for now, with his campaign commercials appearing daily on several radio and television stations, local and international.

    Another factor that may count for the businessman-turned-politician is his act of  philanthropy, as he is said to be providing food for poor people at the grassroots, while also supplying free kerosene to the needy.

    His weaknesses

    Though there are reports that Ubah has set up campaign structures across the 177 towns and communities of the state, comprising of ward ambassadors and local government directors, his relative inexperience in politics, analysts say, coupled with the suspicious inclinations of the elites to his personality are a few of his major weaknesses that could frustrate his ambition to rule the state.

    The fear of the influential elites in the state, The Nation learnt, is that the controversies over Ubah’s  personal and business antecedents could rub off negatively on the image and fortune of the state, both in the short and long term.

    Ukachukwu and the big umbrella

    Some political observers, aware of the special intrgues that trailed the race for the governorship ticket in Anambra State this year, are yet to fully comprehend how Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu upstaged both Senator Andy Uba and the much celebrated Tony Nwoye to emerge the flag bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

    Considering the hype that punctuated Uba and Nwoye’s entrance to the race, some had written off Ukachukwu. So, when he finally scaled through, observers started wondering where Ukachukwu is coming from?

    But any informed political observer of note cannot deny that Ukachukwu, the founder and CEO of SNECOU Group of companies, is not entirely a new person in political battles. He had featured in many elections and has some strategic connections in Abuja.

    He was at the House of Representatives between 1999 and 2003,  representing Abuja Municipal Area Council and Bwari, of Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

    Listed in official records mainly as “an entrepreneur, philanthropist and property developer in the FCT, it is likely that shelter may be one of the areas of focus of the University of Calabar- trained business tycoon, having served as a member of House Committee on the area when he was at the National Assembly.

    His strengths

    Ukachukwu is not a neophyte in this game. Besides the fact that he is connected in Abuja, where he does most of his businesses and where he had served at the National Assembly, he has also participated well enough in Anambra State politics to understand the terrain and to know where the political land mines are buried.

    His party, the People’s Democratic Party, is also well  entrenched in the state, and can always win elections if well utilized and packaged.

    His weaknesses

    For a reason yet to be conclusively determined, Ukachukwu’s political quests in Anambra State has remained largely unsuccessful and many are eager to see if it would not be the same in the present outing.

    It can be said that since he came to Anambra to seek elective office, he had been outwitted a number of times for the senatorial and governorship seats by both Senator Ugochukwu Uba (in 2003) and Andy Uba (in 2007 and 2011).

    It would be recalled that in 2007, he was literally forced to leave the PDP to run the governorship race on the platform of the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) when Andy Uba grabbed the PDP ticket.

    He suffered the same fate in 2010, when he and other aspirants were allegedly dumped by their party in favour of the former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Prof. Chukwuma Soludo. Ukachukwu had to contest the race under Hope Democratic Party (HDP).

    Now that he secured the PDP under very contentious circumstances, his major task remains how to carry along the divided PDP house.

    Anambra State started out as a solid PDP state, but today, the terrain has changed significantly and without unity, it may be difficult for Ukachukwu to recall the hand of the clock for the party with the big umbrella.

    This is even so, considering that the strength of PDP in the state has, for a long time, been the solid relationship between its flag-bearers and Aso Rock. With the rumour and the signs that President Goodluck Jonathan, considering his relationship Governor Obi, may not reach out today to fight APGA in the state, it would be interesting to see how far Ukachukwu can go.

  • Anambra: What a peculiar mess

    Anambra State is a study in paradox. It is a state where there is a concentration of elites-business, political, social. Thus, the polity is expected to have benefited immensely from this. It is not out of place to expect that only the highly educated and polished would ever venture into the political arena in such a state.

    But, it is an understatement to say this is not so. Anambra is probably the most backward of the five South East states in terms of public affairs. Everyone who owns a container at the Tin Can Ports believes that qualifies him to purchase the governorship ticket of a political party and move on to bulldoze his way into the Awka Government House. Unfortunately, this is not a new development. It has become the political culture.

    At a point, under the crude politicking encouraged by the military, the Lord of the Manor was (Dr.) Arthur Eze. He dictated who got what, when and how. Later, at the inception of the Fourth Republic, (Chief Dr.) Emeka Offor took over from Eze. He dictated the pace; his connection at the presidency was enough to win him sufficient influence to peddle.

    By the time Chris Uba and his brothers arrived the scene, they had learnt enough to create their own brand of politics. Chris was the man who could do anything to pave the way for others. His brawn showed him as a man who would not tolerate any obstacle on his way. He was bold enough to attempt to pick whoever he wished to take the governorship seat. He went further than others by getting his choice (or victim) to sign a contract that he would hand over the key to the state treasury and turn the Government House to a mere extension of the Uba compound. His two elder brothers were strategically positioned. One was sent to the Senate and the other was planted in Aso Rock. He, too, was a member of the Board of Trustees of the ruling party, even when he was yet under 40 years of age. Chris Uba lived large. He sought total domination.

    Like Basorun Gaa in the old Oyo empire who, blinded by his power and influence, decreed that the Alaafin should daily come to pay him obeisance, the emperor sought to decide how Governor Chris Ngige, ruled. A resistance by Ngige who refused to serve as a mere puppet led to a conflagration and the most audacious invasion of the seat of power. Aided by a Police AIG, a sitting governor was abducted and his resignation announced. It was not only an exhibition of absurdity, but an indication that morality had taken full flight from the state.

    What a pity? From the years under Clement Mbadinuju, the soul of the state has been troubled. Crisis has been the name of the game. Consider the situation in 2011. No one, not even the electoral commission, knew who the senatorial candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) were. The commission simply made the electorate vote for the parties. Yet, in the worst form of political abracadabra that I have witnessed, the party’s candidates emerged from the courts winners in all the senatorial districts.

    The setting for the November governorship election is as ludicrous as ever. Who are the flag bearers? Somehow, even if inexplicably, Nicholas Ukachukwu has emerged the PDP candidate. In 2010, Ukachukwu had made a bold attempt to capture the party’s ticket. When he failed, he moved to Hope Democratic Party and ran the race as if he stood any chance. When, as expected he was unsuccessful, he launched a bid to “recover his stolen mandate”. Andy Uba, too, who was edged out in the power game, simply hijacked the Labour Party platform. He ran, but failed. He is in the race this time, too. He organised his own congress and got himself declared the candidate. Need I point out that, barely a year after his governorship bid failed in 2010, he managed to be declared the victorious PDP senatorial candidate? He is the chairman of the Senate Committee on Electoral Commission His predecessor was Senator Adeleke, the serubawon of Osun. What an insult. What a desecration of values and institutions.

    In APGA, it is the turn of a neophyte to fly the flag. Willie Obiano is not known to have played any part in the public arena. He simply got Governor Peter Obi’s nod and that was enough to crowd out others, including a former CBN governor, Professor Charles Soludo, who had crossed over from the PDP assured that the ticket was his to pick. He is a Professor of Economics, not Nigerian Politics. Ngige of the Action Congress of Nigeria appears the only major contender without a serious baggage. He emerged from the 2003 episode a hero of sort. However, some moralists still query this verdict. How could he have chosen to dine with the devil and then complain when the fiend made an attempt to devour him?

    It really does not matter who wins the November 16 poll. The losers are already known- they are the people. Who are the men on parade? What are their antecedents? What do they stand for? Men who hop from one platform to another could not be described as committed and honourable. Men who are known to have been part of a conspiracy to drown the state ought not to be allowed a dance in the public square.

    When a man wakes up in the money, dresses his bed, decorates the mattress with thorns, he would be foolish to complain about the consequences in the night. He who has ears, let him hear.

  • How my successor will emerge, by Uduaghan

    How my successor will emerge, by Uduaghan

    What is your succession plan for Delta State?

    It is on course.There is no way you can hold a position without having a succession plan. The person who is going to succeed me will be elected by the people. The person has to work hard. He also has to work on me who has one vote and also work on the people that have over two million votes.

    The challenge about my succession plan is that I have put a structure in place that I am marketing to Deltans. We should build an economy beyond oil and, since you are going to succeed me, you have to convince the people that your plan is to build Delta economy beyond oil. If you say it is not part of your plan and you want to make the state depend on oil forever, I don’t think you will have it easy to be elected. I am sure the person has to key into the programmes we have put in place.

    What is your reaction to the call by the Nigerian Governors’ Forum, (NGF) led by Governor Rotimi Amaechi for the resignation of the Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala?

    Yes, there was a call by some of my colleagues for the resignation of the Finance Minister, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, if she cannot manage the economy, especially the Appropriation Act. If you read the communiqué, it talked about the projection and what projection simply means is that you are not sure of what is on ground. What that means is that you are making an estimate and your projection may be correct or wrong. What has happened is that the Federal Government is saying that our projection, although it is an Act, is not quite adding up and so, we cannot run it exactly the way it has been projected.

    Again, budget is a statement of intention and there are two parts of budget. You have the revenue and the expenditure. We are talking about expenditure and that expenditure includes giving some money to the states. As regards the position today, the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) meeting, especially for this month, is suspended indefinitely. At least no meeting has been fixed. Why and what is the problem? The problem is that there is no enough money available on the table to be shared.

    Why are we not having enough money to be shared?

    The budget was based on a projection of about 2.3 million barrels per day and with a benchmark of about $79 per barrel. About two or three weeks ago, there were issues of low production because of the crude oil theft and of course, a committee was put up. I was the head of that committee. It was found out that there was about 400,000 barrels loss of oil per day and out of the 400,000 about 320,000 was from shutting and about 80,000 barrels of crude were being stolen.

    Today, those pipelines have been opened up. So, at least, the loss is less than 100,000 barrels per day; it is about 80,000 barrels per day. So, ordinarily, one would say that look, the total production should be about 2.3million barrel per day. So, with the sales going for $100 per barrel, it simply means that there should be enough money for the allocation, but the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) is telling us that they don’t have enough money that would be put on the table to be shared. So, the question is : is it the minister’s responsibilities to get this money from NNPC or is it NNPC that should tell us what is happening to the oil that is being produced and sold? Where is the money? That is where our emphasis should be. The questions should be to the NNPC and not the Minister of Finance. Let NNPC tell Nigerians what is happening to the money from production and sales.

    Some of us in the committee have been meeting for hours. About three weeks ago, we held a meeting where we sat from noon to about 8p.m. trying to get the NNPC to explain to us. On that day, the NNPC said they had some money, which they would make available for sharing. Till today, FAAC has not even got the money; they are old monies for sharing. We are not even talking of the current one now. So, the money is accumulating.

    So, you strongly believe that NNPC should be held liable, not Okonjo-Iweala?

    I think the pressure should be on the agencies that are collecting money on behalf of the federating states; the NNPC being one of them that is collecting revenue. Of course, we have others like the Federal Inland Revenue Services (FIRS) the customs and the rest.

    So, Nigerians should be asking that these monies that are being collected by these various organs, where are they? They should speak out. Pressure should be put on the right quarters so that we don’t unnecessarily sacrifice the wrong person.

    One other issue raised by the Amaechi’s NGF is that the nation’s economy should be managed by National Economic Council (NEC), not the Economic Management Team.

    There is no doubt that everyone has a role to play in the management of the economy. The Economic Management Team that was put in place by our President has some of the best and brightest Nigerians in terms of economic activities. The Dangotes, the Oba Otedekos and the Jim Ovias of this world, among others. I mean you can’t fault those people in terms of their pedigrees. I think the President has been wise enough to put those people together, mainly as advisory body. I don’t see why we should have issues with them.

    The National Economic Council is still meeting regularly; that is where you have the Vice-President and the governors, who are coming out with economic policies. So, I am not sure it is correct to say that the Economic Management Team is the issue with the Nigerian economy.

    How come that your view is different from that of your colleagues? Could it be political?

    It is not about Ministry of Finance or Ministry of Petroleum Resources. Now, in every sector, there are technical people. We have them in the NNPC. We must differentiate the NNPC from Ministry of Petroleum.

    Maybe, because I have deeper knowledge of some of these issues, that is why my position is slightly different from my colleagues’ own. I was the chairman of the committee that had to do with the challenge of oil theft and, for almost three months, I was holding meetings in Abuja every week with the security agencies, the IOCs, the Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Ministry of Finance, dealing with the real issue because of the challenges. Even, some of the communities, all the agencies and the illegal people were part of the meeting every week, and by God’s grace, we were able to reduce the 500,000bpd of oil loss to less than 80,000 bpd.

    So, having said that, that means our oil production is now at the quantity that was budgeted for. So, it is an issue of accountability by the agencies that are supposed to bring this money to the table. I suggest we have proper and correct perspective so that we can deal with this issue.

    How will the states pay salaries, since there is no money to share now?

    Our economy is still oil-dependent and that is why some of us are saying look, let us build our economy beyond oil. Of course, we know that we have started building Delta State beyond oil. We are almost getting there, at least, with our Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), we would be able to pay our salaries. That is our charter; grow beyond oil. Whether the FAAC is coming or not, we should be able to pay our salary based on our IGR.

    Because most states depend on this allocation to be able to pay salaries, don’t forget that, even the Federal Government is an arm in this revenue sharing issue. They all have challenges of paying salaries. I am not sure the Federal Government has paid salaries for this month now because no sharing has been done. Many states have been unable to pay salaries because, for the past three months, what is being given to them is not enough. That is where the challenge of paying salaries is coming from as far as the states are concerned.

    What is the way out?

    The NNPC should come and tell us where they keep the money. That is the solution. The problem is that NNPC has not been able to convince us we don’t have enough money to share. That is the point I am trying to make. I think why they (governors) are a bit hard on Okonjo-Iweala is that she should bring money from the Excess Crude Aaccount and all this sort, but again that is something for another session.

    If the NNPC is holding the nation to ransom, why can’t the Presidency make changes there?

    I usually don’t talk about changes because I have not been in that position to make changes. If I want to make changes in my state, for instance, that is quite easy.

    How is the reconciliation in the PDP now?

    The reconciliation process is on and we must all be appreciative and thank Mr. President for the posture he has taken on this matter. As long as we allow the reconciliation to go on, we will eventually get there. Mr. President is determined to see to the end and that is very important. The solution to that problem is not too far. I don’t think this process will just take one day or it will end on October 7. But I think before October 7, a lot of processes would have taken place that would give confidence to everybody to say something good is coming at the end of the day.

    What is your position on the agitation for a Sovereign National Conference?

    I talked about it about three years ago that Nigeria needs a national confab. What I refused to agree with is a Sovereign National Conference. If we should remove the word sovereign, we should hold a National Conference. I talked about it, maybe in low tone, over three years ago because we have various challenges in Nigeria that we need to sit down and discuss.

    There are regional challenges, there are security challenges, there are even religious challenges that we need to sit down and discuss and agree on the way forward.

    There are economic challenges, there are regional challenges in this country. If you are not from that area, you might not understand some of the challenges in those areas and until we sit down and put the things on the table, then we start the process of give and take.

    Okay, from this part of the country, these are the challenges and from the other part of Nigeria, these are the challenges. Okay I will give in to this, you will give in to that; we start the process of give and take and eventually, arrive at something that is acceptable to everyone and we move on from there. It might not even be the best by the time we even agree, but with time, we build on what we have started as a people. Because like you said, there is much suspicion, there is so much distrust.

  • Urhobo leaders endorse Dafinone for Senate

    Urhobo leaders have endorsed the businesman, Mr. Ede Dafinone, for the Senate, ahead of the Delta Central District by-election.

    They also called on the voters to vote at the poll, based on the candidates’ credibility, competence and ability.

    Dafinone, a chartered accountant, is the son of the prominent Urhobo leader, Senator David Dafinone. He has been involved in many philanthropist activities in the district. He is running under the Democratic Peoples Party (DPP).

    Rising from a meeting at Egini, Udu Local Government Area, theUrhobo Leaders of Thought said “the next senator for Delta Central must be a person with articulate vision, unquestionable credibility, level headed and, above all, a disciplined gentleman”.

    The leaders, who described Dafinone as the best hand for the job, said the chartered accountant has built a strong and purposeful relationship among the various communities in Urhoboland.

    “Chief Ede Dafinone stands out of the pack of pretenders, traders and contenders. He is an accomplished economist, a distinguished accountant, a large hearted philanthropist, a reputable humanist and a God-fearing individual. He is a very successful man, whose success flows, not from his material possession, but from the many lives he has touched in Urhobo land with his love and kindness,” the leaders said.

    According to a statement by the National Coordinator of the group, Mr. Michael Akpomughe, the leaders said: “Chief Ede Dafinone’s victory is vital to the development of Urhoboland”.

    “He is coming to serve and not to make money,” the statement said.

    Recalling the late Senator Pius Ewherido’s contributions to the Urhobo nation, the leaders appealed to Chief Great Ogboru and other top leaders of the Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) to support Dafinone.

    The group urged the Urhobo to vote for a trust-worthy candidate, who will be their ambassador in the Senate.

  • PDP: Bumpy road to October 7

    PDP: Bumpy road to October 7

    The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) peace talks are expected to resume on October 7. The cracks continue to widen. Assistant Editor, GBADE OGUNWALE reports that it has been a classic case of one week, one trouble for the ruling party.

     

     

    THERE is no evidence that peace will return to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on October 7. The two factions are not yet prepared for a truce. Although a meeting is slated for Abuja on that date, sources said that the two sides are not ready to give concessions.

    It does not require any intuition to situate the genesis of the crisis rocking the ruling party. The power struggle started shortly before the 2011 election, when contending interests, conflict of ambitions and clash of egos characterised its nomination. Up in arms against President Goodluck Jonathan, under the cloak of zoning, was a group of Northern elders under the leadership of a former Finance Minister, Mallam Adamu Ciroma. In the group were prominent presidential aspirants, including former military President Ibrahim Babangida and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

    The Ciroma group streamlined the list of aspirants and came up with Atiku’s name as the consensus choice of the northern establishment. On that platform, Atiku went into the primaries with Jonathan, who had mastered the chessboard, with the active backing of his political godfather, former President Olusegun Obasanjo.

    Like others before it, the presidential nomination did not come without row. for inexplicable reasons, majority of the northern governors, who had earlier jumped into the zoning train, massed their delegates into voting for Jonathan at the convention. Thus, a supposedly rustic and shoeless boy from the backwaters of Otuoke, Bayelsa State, trounced the politically experienced, urbane and sagacious Atiku to clinch the ticket. The rest, as they say, is history.

    It was not until March that the nation was made to understand why the northern governors gave in to the Jonathan candidacy for the 2011 poll. Niger State Governor Babangida Aliyu mounted the rooftops to proclaim that he and his fellow governors decided to back the President, based on a mutual agreement that Jonathan would serve for only a single term from 2011 to 2015.

    The pronouncement jolted the otherwise phlegmatic President, whose body language had not left anyone in doubt of his desire to seek re- election in 2015. The battle line was drawn, with a flurry of clandestine moves by both parties struggling to outsmart each other, ahead of the 2015 presidential nominations. The veil was torn to reveal a more determined Jonathan when, on January 1, posters announcing his intention to contest surfaced in strategic locations at the Federal Capital Territory. And the poster war began.

    Thereafter, posters of Governor Aliyu, his Jigawa State counterpart, Sule Lamido, and Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi flooded various locations in the North. While the posters announced Aliyu and Lamido for the presidency, Amaechi was touted as running mate to Lamido. Kano State Governor Musa Kwankwaso’s name also featured as one of the presidential aspirants. The Jonathan camp went on the rampage. The aviation authorities, apparently acting in proxy, started raising prying questions about documentation of a Rivers State-owned aircraft used by the governor for his shuttles. That was after the plane had been grounded for allegedly breaching aviation guidelines. Shortly after, the executive of the Rivers State chapter of the PDP was supplanted by a new team, in deference to a “court ruling”.

    Then entered a new executive headed by Felix Obuah and the assault on Amaechi went full circle. The Obuah team, with the active backing of Minister of State for Education Nyesom Wike, went straight for the governor’s jugular.

    Besides, the heavy hand of the Presidency was stretched to the ranks of the 23 governors elected on the platform of the PDP. This gave birth to the PDP Governors Forum, with Governor Godswill Akpabio as chairman. About 16 of the governors form the actual membership of the Akpabio-led Forum. They were meant to upstage Amaechi in the pending election of the Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF). Plateau State Governor Jonah Jang was propped up as the Presidency’s lackey. But the 12 opposition governors joined forces with Amaechi and six governors of the PDP that are opposed to Jonathan. Ameachi defeated Jang by 19 votes to 16. Jang and his group formed a parallel NGF with him as chairman. But Amaechi’s group of 19 is still holding up. The Forum has continued to remain in tatters.

    The fight to bring Amaechi to his knees has continued on the upward scale. With a script dripping with ink from the godfathers in Abuja, the governor was asked to reinstate the executive council of the Obior/Akpor Local Government suspended by the Rivers State House of Assembly a few weeks back. He declined. The Bamanga Tukur-led PDP handed him a suspension. The Rivers State police command, headed by Commissioner Mbu Joseph Mbu, was co-opted into the Amaechi haunt. In the heat of the crisis, five governors from the north, who are sympathetic to the governor’s cause, headed to Port Harcourt, the Rivers State capital, in solidarity with their troubled colleague. On arrival, they were marooned at the airport by hired hoodlums, who held them hostage for hours. When the governors were eventually allowed to venture into the city to meet their host, the mob escorted them out of the precinct of the airport with a hail of missiles, stones, pebbles and all. Next, seven members of the 32-man Rivers Assembly attempted to impeach the Speaker, Dan Amachree and replace him with one of their own.

    That would have led to the impeachment of the governor, if they had succeeded in the plot. The contending groups met force for force as the remaining 27 lawmakers loyal to the governor resisted the move. It turned out to be a rowdy affair, a bloody one for that matter.

    In a show of shame, Michael

    Chinda, one of the opposing

    lawmakers, was beaten by the pro-Amaechi legislators. The governor’s camp won the round. The stage moved to Abuja. Deputy National Chairman former Sam Sam Jaja, one of Amaechi’s diehard loyalists, became the next target. By virtue of a position paper by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Jaja and others, who were elected into National Working Committee (NWC) of the PDP in the party’s 2012 convention through an opaque process, were forced to resign.

    The 18 affected party officials were given a chance to re-contest for their various positions. But a few days to August 31, 2013 convention date, the Obuah-led Rivers chapter of the PDP announced Jaja’s expulsion from the PDP. The reason for the action could not be located anywhere in party’s constitution. But that did not stop the plot. The Jonathan camp had already marked another candidate, Uche Secondus, for Jaja’s job.

    Having seen the handwriting on the wall, PDP governors in the Northwestern states had positioned their delegates to vote for Jaja on the convention ground. Having got a whiff of what was in the offing for the Amaechi camp, the party prevented the pro-Jaja delegates from the Northwest from taking part in the election. Atiku and six other governors, their delegates and supporters walked out of the convention. In a jiffy, they regrouped at the Yar ‘Adua Centre where they were joined by Amaechi.

    At the centre were Atiku; a former acting national chairman Alhaji Abubakar Baraje; Governors Amaehi; Musa Kwankwaso (Kano); Murtala Nyako (Adamawa); Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto); Babangida Aliyu (Niger); Sule Lamido (Jigawa); and Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara). Others were Jaja; Senator Abdullahi Adamu (Nasarawa West); erstwhile national secretary of the PDP, Olagunsoye Oyinlola; deputies to the protesting governors and others.

    The group announced the birth of the New PDP, with Baraje as the chairman, Jaja as the deputy chair and Oyinlola as the national secretary.

    The protesting chieftains said the group was forced to leave the Tukur-led PDP as a result of arbitrary actions and dangerous permutations by Tukur, with the backing of President Jonathan towards the 2015 presidential race. They also protested against the arbitrary suspension of notable members. To drive home its point, the Baraje faction wasted no time in getting a national secretariat of its own in Abuja.

    The Jonathan camp moved swiftly to seal off the premises before the factional members could move in. The siege is still in force. Then, the Jonathan camp initiated a series of reconciliatory moves. In the reconciliatory train are prominent elders and leaders of the party. Chairman of the party’s Board of Trustees (BoT) Chief Tony Anenih, two former party chairmen, Ahmadu Ali and Barnabas Gemade, were also on board. Obasanjo, Babangida and President of the Senate David Mark were also drafted in. But while the reconciliation and peace talks were ongoing, Jonathan, who initiated the talks, was shooting from the hips in ways that suggested that he was fully prepared for a fight, good or bad.

    Obviously taking a cue from his combative political mentor, Jonathan has chosen to fight bare knuckles. He sacked nine of his ministers, who had links with Obasanjo and other PDP chieftains, who are believed to be opposed to his re-election bid. Oyinlola had lost his position as the national secretary of the PDP in what the party leadership ascribed to obedience to a subsisting court order.

    There are also ongoing moves to wrest the control of party machinery from the “adversarial” governors. In Kano, a caretaker committee has been set up to run the affairs of the party. Leaders of the Kano chapter had in June, officially informed the national leadership that the tenure of the State Executive Committee would expire on August 15. In the memo to the national chairman, the Kano leaders had implored the national body to commence the process of conducting a valid congress to elect a new leadership to replace the expiring exco.

    But no action was taken till

    September 16 when Tukur

    announced the composition of a caretaker committee for the Kano chapter. The appointment of the caretaker committee coincided with a visit to the party’s national secretariat by a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Umar Ghali Na ‘Abba, and a former ambassador, Aminu Wali.

    A few days after Na ‘Abba and Wali’s visit, Mohammed, the son of the late maximum ruler, Gen. Sani Abacha also came calling. Abacha had joined the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) in 2010. He left the party the same year when he failed in his bid to secure the party’s governorship ticket. He announced his return to the PDP during the visit. The Kwankwaso camp is said to be viewing the development as one of the moves by the Jonathan camp to hand over the state party machinery to forces opposed to the governor.

    The Adamawa State chapter has been thrown into crisis as a result of the power tussle between Governor Nyako and Tukur. While Tukur is believed to be positioning his son, Anwal, for the ticket, Nyako also is scheming to have the slot for his preferred candidate. As at now, the chapter is torn between the Joel Madaki and Lawal Mijinjuwa factions, with the former backed by Tukur and the latter, by Nyako. The situation is not different in virtually all the PDP chapters in the Southwest states where various factions have been fighting for the control of the party machinery.

    Anambra State presents a different kettle of fish. There is the Ken Emeakayi faction, which is recognised by the national body, while the Ejike Oguebego faction enjoys the recognition of the Independent National Electoral Commission ( INEC). The two factions had conducted separate governorship primaries on August 24.

    While the Emeakayi faction presented Tony Nwoye as candidate, which the national body endorsed, the Oguebego faction elected Senator Andy Uba as its candidate for the same November 16 election. The crisis has earned Uba, his brother, Chris and two others in their camp an indefinite suspension from the Tukur PDP.

    In Sokoto State, the story is not different. Senator Umar Gada, who is a Political Adviser to Tukur, is being used as a counter force against the governor. It’s too early to tell how far Gada and his team could go, but the various permutations indicate that he enjoys the backing of the PDP.

    Apparently in doubt about Mark’s support for the President’s re-election bid, the party has enlisted Lawrence Onoja, a PDP chieftain from Mark’s Benue South Senatorial District. Onoja contested the Benue South seat with Mark in 2011 on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), but lost to the President of the Senate. Many view his defection to the ruling party as part of the scheme to whittle down Mark’s influence in the Benue chapter of the PDP.

    Perhaps, the greatest threat to the survival of the PDP is the faction. The faction has continued to attract members across the states and the National Assembly. This appears to be threatening the peace moves initiated at the instance of the President.

    The media war between the two camps has taken a fiercer dimension. The last round of talks did not yield any positive result, forcing the parties to slate the next round of talks for October 7. Events in the ruling party have continued to take new twists by the day.

    The President has been oscillating between perceivably phlegmatic and palpably hyperactive reaction to the events in the party. With his actions since the crisis broke out, he appears to be embracing reconciliation with one hand, and at the same time throwing punches with the other. Obasanjo, who is one of the prominent members of the reconciliation team, is also having it rubbed in the face.

    Apart from having his loyalists thrown out of various positions in the party’s national executive, one or two cabinet ministers who got the job through his connection were affected in the last cabinet purge. Despite his role in the peace process, the Jonathan camp does not trust the former President.

    With regular shots in the

    arm, the President’s foot

    soldiers have been on the prowl against “disloyal” members of the party. Others are stoking the embers with unguarded utterances and provocative actions. Chief Edwin Clark, elderstatesman and one of the opinion leaders in the Southsouth zone, decided to join the fray.

    Though many say Clark’s intervention was unsolicited, he has been persistent in his attacks on real and perceived political foes of the President. Jonathan, he insists, must be allowed to run in 2015. The recent visit to the National Assembly by chieftains of the Baraje faction has opened a new chapter in the crisis. This appears to have brought a schasm between the leadership of the federal legislature and the Jonathan camp.

    More troubling to the President’s camp is the pacifist role played by the President of the Senate during the faction’s visit. Mark received the factional members warmly, but he admonished them to embrace peace . The Baraje faction has presented a list of demands to the reconciliation team as conditions for peace.

    Among others, the group is demanding the removal of Tukur as national chairman; lifting of the suspension order on Amaechi; return of party structures in the states to the governors; resolution of the Anambra PDP imbroglio; and dropping of Jonathan’s 2015 re-election bid. But these are pills the Jonathan camp and the Tukur led PDP may find difficult to swallow. With his body language and recent actions, President Jonathan may not be in a hurry to accede to all the demands tabled by the faction.

    Dropping re-election bid may not find any place in the President’s mind. On the other hand, the faction considers it politically suicidal to back out on any of its demands, considering the possible backlash on the political careers of the members. They seem to have crossed the rubicon. Depending on the initiative of the Obasanjo led peace team, the warring factions may reach a win-some, lose-some compromise.

     

  • Nightmare over 2013 budget

    The implementation of the 2013 budget is being threatened by lack of funds. Assistant Editor LEKE SALAUDEEN examines the shortfall in government’s revenue earning and its implications for governance.

     

    The implementation of the 2013 budget has sparked off a fresh row. The Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF) led by Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State has demanded for the resignation of the Minister of Finance and Co-ordinating Minister for the Economy, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, for non-compliance with the revenue projections of the Federal Government’s 2013 budget.

    It is not surprising that this year’s budget is not being implemented as stipulated in the Appropriation Act. It was a product of conflicts between the executive and the legislators. The estimates were inflated by the lawmakers without taking into consideration the government’s revenue status. After the presentation of the budget by the President to the National Assembly in October 2012, a logjam was created by the lawmakers. The increased the oil benchmark from the proposed $75 per barrel to $79; reduced the recurrent expenditure and increased the capital vote; inserted some constituency projects that were not included in the financial estimates proposed by the executive and increased the overall budget by about N63 billion.

    When the budget was passed on December 20, 2012, many were excited that, for the first time in many decades, there was a chance of the 2013 budget being implemented from January 1. That hope was short-lived because the National Assembly did not send the budget to the President for his assent until January 14. It marked the beginning of the waiting game.

    The President took exceptions to the changes in the estimate by the lawmakers. He withheld his assent to the Appropriation Bill. Following public outcry over the delay in signing the budget, the President reluctantly signed the budget on February 26. According to experts, the President signed it for two reasons. The first was that he didn’t want to leave the budget unsigned till March. Also, he wanted to pre-empt the National Assembly from overriding his presidential veto after 30 days.

    In April, the President returned the budget to the National Assembly with a bill seeking to amend it. Initially, the law makers rejected the proposal because the amendment sought by the executive requested them to rework the budget. It took almost four months before the National Assembly could conclude deliberations on the bill. The country wasted eight months on budget deliberation, leaving virtually four months for implementation.

     

    Shortfall in revenue

    earning

     

    During preparation of the 2013 budget, the Federal Government had targeted an estimated N712.92 billion quarterly. However, data from the Budget Office of the Federation (BOF) indicated that, in the first quarter of 2013, the actual gross non-oil revenue of N448.68 billion was received. This signifies a shortfall of N264.24 billion or 37.06 per cent below the quarterly estimate of N712.92 billion.

    The 2013 Budget Implementation Report (BIR) released recently by the BoF indicated that the Federal Government also contended with revenue shortfall in the oil and gas sector, despite the favourable oil prices at the international market.

    According to the report, the actual net oil revenue that accrued to the Federation Account in the first quarter was N967.84 billion, indicating a shortfall of N245.96 billion or 20.26 per cent below the projected quarterly estimate of N1.213 trillion.

    The report noted that, in spite of the favourable oil prices at the international market, the lower- than- projected performance of the net oil revenue in the first quarter of 2013, was due to the fall in oil lifting figures during the period.

    The decrease in oil liftingwas attributed to the incessant crude oil theft, bunkering, pipeline vandalisation, which had been on the increase in recent times in the Niger Delta region.

    Dr Okonjo-Iweala attributed the slow pace of budget implementation to the shortfall in the revenue earnings.

    Renowned economist Henry Boyo disagreed. According to him, the earnings from internally and externally generated revenue sources are more than enough to implement the budget. He said the Federal Internal Revenue Service has generated over N4 trillion this year. Besides, earnings from oil export are higher than what was projected in the budget. The oil benchmark in the budget is $75 per barrel, whereas the type of crude that Nigeria produces has been selling for over $100 per barrel at the international market in the past one year. So, the price of crude oil is over 33 per cent of the benchmark, he explained.

    Boyo said, that “given that the total budget of 2013 is about N5 trillion, I don’t think we should be talking of inadequate revenue to execute the budget. The earnings from internal and external sources are more than enough.”

    He added: “What worries me most is the feeling that they (executive) have not been implementing the budget because of lack of funds. We are making money from two sources. From the internal source, FIRS has generated over N4 trillion this year. If you add income from crude oil export, we have surplus. This year’s budget is about N5trillion. No way, they can’t tell us that we are not generating enough to implement the budget.

    “If the reason is the result of crude oil production, they have not told us that the production falls below 20 per cent. The price of crude oil remains above 33 per cent of the projected price. The benchmark for the 2013 was based at $75. For the past one year the crude particularly Nigerian type sells for over $100 per barrel. We make extra $25 on every barrel sold. Even if we have 20 per cent fall in output, it has been more than compensated.

    “If we are not earning enough, how come we are keeping excess crude account. They are taking us as fools. We should tell them we are not, he concluded.”

    An expert in budget analysis, Dr Tunji Ogunyemi of the Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), said no responsible government would blame its failure to implement budget on the activities of common thieves.

    “It sounds ridiculous that oil thieves have prevented a legitimate government from realising its revenue target. It is a vote of no confidence on the security apparatus of the country.

    “The primary purpose of government is to ensure security and wellbeing of the people. The oil thieves are not ghosts. They are seen operating $3 million worth of vessel to steal oil. They own refineries all over the Niger-Delta. I have never heard of any government in the world blaming shortfall in revenue earning to oil thieves or common thieves.”

    On the performance of the budget, Ogunyemi said the capital project was frustrated in the first quarter because of the delay over the signing of the budget by the President. “The implementation of the budget starts from January 1, but the first three months were wasted as a result of the disagreement between the executive and the legislature on provisions in the budget”.

    He noted that, after the signing in February, the President returned the budget to the National Assembly for amendment. This dragged for some months before it was finally resolved in August. “Nothing was achieved in the second quarter on capital projects because rain has set in.

    “Road contractors are prevented by rain from carrying out construction work. I don’t see how the government can achieve much in the execution of capital projects. With three months to the end of the year, may be government may achieve 35 per cent budget implementation”, he added.

    A financial consultant, Idris Abubakar, observed that many sectors are not working. He said: “Those who are handling the economy are causing confusion. They give the impression that economic growth has no relationship with job creation and other concrete indices of development, he said. Abubakar said that Nigerians are being deceived about the state of the economy.

    “How can they say there is economic growth when people cannot feed or get jobs? They said they are creating jobs here and there under the Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Programme (SURE-P). How many people have secured jobs under the SURE-P? You can’t just assemble 30 young unemployed people and pay them N30,000 and repeat that in another three months and you call that job creation”.

    Abubakar said the handlers of the economy think that Nigerians are fools. “The people cannot feel the impact of what the handlers of our economy are doing; it is not being felt despite all propaganda. We are in September the executive is yet to release funds for capital projects. As a result of this, ministries, departments, agencies (MDAs) are crying over non release of funds to them,” he said.

     

    A draw-back for the economy

     

    Experts say the backlog of implementation of the 2013 budget is a setback for the economy. They observed that most of the gains that could have accrued to the country, if the budget had taken effect from January 1, have been lost. Many importers were kept in a state of apprehension, due to the logjam. Specifically, they made reference to the original budget proposal submitted to the National Assembly, which contained stimulus packages for investors in the solid minerals, aviation, transport and agriculture sectors. None of the investors, who had envisaged a prompt implementation of these stimulus packages, would be able to access them until now, which is three months into the New Year.

    The contractors, who had expected quick payments for work done, or payment of mobilisation fee to the site were disillusioned. The experts conclude that the polemics that have trailed the 2013 budget is bad for the ailing economy.

     

  • Census: Can Nigeria get it right?

    Census: Can Nigeria get it right?

    Efforts at producing reliable statistics for national planning have failed because the periodic headcounts have always hit the rocks. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU writes on the politics of population census and its implications for the polity.

     

    Seven years after the 2006 census was conducted, the controversy trailing the exercise has not ended. The headcount is inconclusive. Recently, the Census Tribunal ordered the National Population Commission (NPC) to conduct fresh census in the pre-existing 14 local governments (now 40 local governments and Local Council Development Areas) in Lagos State to correct the previous defective exercise.

    After a critical assessment, the NPC Chairman, Mr. Festus Odimegwu, had declared that the last figures were inaccurate. Barely a week after the remarks, the National Census Tribunal nullified the results in 14 local government areas in Lagos State. The nullification followed massive complaints by 19 local governments. They are Agege, Alimoso, Amuwo-Odfin, Apapa, Badagry, Epe, Eti-Osa, Ifelodun, Ifako-Ijaye, Ikeja and Ikorodu. Others are Kosofe, Lagos island, Lagos Mainland, Mushin, Ojo, Oshodi-Isolo, Somolu and Surulere. After considering the petition, the tribunal ordered a recount in the old 14 councils.

    Lagosians have argued that the figures allocated to the state by the NPC under the chairmanship of Chief Samaila Makama reflected a wide margin of error. The melting pot was credited with barely nine million, unlike the old Kano State, now consisting of Kano and Jigawa, which had 14 million. The population of both states was 5.8 million in 1991, while that of Lagos was 5.7 million. Sensing credibility problem on the part of the commission, Lagos State had conducted a parallel census during the 2006 exercise. Its enumerators registered 4.9 million buildings, both residential and official.

    The state, according to the Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, Mr. Ade Ipaye, arrived at almost 18 million people, which is not a departure from the United Nation’s projection. He said the cancellation of the figures has vindicated the Lagos State government’s resolve to base its physical and economic plans on a projected population of 17,553,924 and over 21 million currently.

    Already, the NPC is planning for a new census in 2016. However, it must now hold a supplementary headcount in Lagos before the next exercise. The puzzle is: “Can the commission learn from the past mistakes?

    Like the periodic general elections, census has become a trigger for passion in Nigeria. Both census and voters registration are often rigged by the manipulators. But census generates a greater passion. What normally comes into the front burner are the age-long crises of identity, integration and distribution in the diverse, multi-ethnic social formation. These factors have remained the most formidable obstacles to nation-building in a supposedly African giant groaning under a skewed federal arrangement and flawed revenue distribution mechanism. Therefore, despite the fact that census is a national affair, it connotes different interpretations to the antagonistic component units constituting the fragile federation.

    According to economic experts, during the census, many people feel that they are counted, not as Nigerians, but as citizens of tribes and ethnic nationalities. The politics of census has also thrown up educated warlords, who understand the implications of the exercise for governance. Census is critical to political calculation, especially, the sharing of political offices and economic formulation in a country where people have refused to develop a national outlook. Therefore, experts contend that the census war is always at the root of the politics of state and local government creation. It is also at the root of the delineation of state and federal constituencies and distribution of national revenue and social infrastructure.

    A political scientist, Boniface Ayodele, submitted that census may not succeed in Nigeria for a long time. Although it is desirable and non-negotiable, he pointed out that the exercise has become an opportunity for competition by the regions, states, local governments and towns. “A region that wants more states, a state that wants more federal constituencies, a local government that wants more wards, and communities pressing for separate local governments hinge their hope on the census outcome”, he pointed out. The University of Ado-Ekiti teacher said that the implications of a flawed census are grave. He said planning with false figures could be counter-productive.

    In many communities, there is mobilisation for the exercise. Some people return to their states of origin to participate in it in community interest. Critics have alleged that indigenes cooperate with traditional rulers and community leaders to contribute “census expenses” or “census fund” to rub the hands of enumerators, supervisors and other officials. The objective, analysts argue, is to have an advantage over rival towns, communities, states and regions when the results are collated. “During the census period, traditional rulers, council chairmen and governors are usually apprehensive”, Ayodele said.

    There are also claims that the “geographical number ”has instilled unsubstantiated ethnic superiority and inferiority, following the much internalised media classification of tribes and ethnic groups into the “majority” and the “minority”. Indeed, in the march of federalism, the reliance on population strength by the dominant regions and the fear of it by the disadvantaged zones, have created the feelings of domination and resentment to marginalisaton.

    In his book titled: ‘Nigeria: The Truth’, Daniel Agbowu noted that politically, each tribe has hinged its relevance and survival on the quantity of its population. “What is of great concern to all is the relative number of different tribes or nationality groupings. How many Northerners? How many Southerners? How many Easterners? How many Westerners? Indeed, how many Nigerians?”, he said.

    The author submitted that “ as the Nigerian society becomes more politically sophisticated, the pre-eminence of the larger tribes is being challenged by the so-called minorities who are smarting from years of neglect and relegation”. He added: “The cry today is no longer of majority/minority dichotomy; it is one of equality of nationalities. Therefore, since democracy is a game of numbers, it is a critical factor for the survival of each nationality to enquire as just how many they are, and as to how much of the country’s collective resources they have had access to since independence and whether their future is still assured in a federal Nigeria”.

    The country’s census history reveals the pattern of consistent resentment and rejection of the results by the Southern elements, who loathe the population superiority of the North, as suggested by the outcome of the result by successive census boards. According to census historians, headcounts were conducted between 1911 and 1921, but the results were not made known. The exercise followed the passage of the census ordinance in 1917 by the colonial government. But the first post-amalgamation census that was documented came in 1931. Since that year, it took place in every 10 years, although it was skipped in 1941 because of the Second World War between 1939 and 1945. The results were as follows: Northern Region, 11,343,000 (57.2 per cent), Western Region, 3,855,000 (19 percent), and Eastern Region, 4,641,000 (23.4 per cent). The 1952/53 census results affirmed the population distribution in the tree regions as: North: 16,840,000 (55.4 per cent), East: 7,218,000 (23.7 per cent) and West: 6,359,000 (20.9 per cent).

    The 1962 census was the first

    post-independence census. It

    was conducted by a Briton, Mr. J. J. Warren, a federal census officer. It was cancelled due to public outcry. Prime-Minister Tafawa Balewa and the three premiers, Alhaji Ahmadu Bello (North),Chief Samuel Akintola (West) and Dr. Michael Okpara (East) agreed to hold a new census in 1963. The 1962 figures were first criticised, not by politicians, but by civil servants, who participated in the headcount. It marked the politicisation of the exercise. “Accusations and counter-accusations were freely traded among politicians from the three regions. Warren described the result from the Eastern Region as false and inflated, complained about the figures from the Western Region, but carried no adverse report about Northern Nigeria. Many observers believed that the scheming and scramble for more figures got to a peak because population figures formed the basis for the delineation of electoral constituencies.

    The 1963 census was also marred with controversy. Complaints trailed its outcome. The North had 29,809,000; East 12, 394,000; West 10,931,000, and Midwest 2,536,000. The census tension engulfed the country. The Prime Minister further fuelled the tension when he declared that the North was now entitled to have more electoral constituencies than the whole of the South. The Premier of the Eastern Region fired back. Rejecting the census, Okpara said that it smacked of inflation of astronomical proportion, adding that the results were worse and useless. Venting his anger, he went to court to seek redress, but he lost on technical ground as the court ruled that it lacked jurisdiction to hear the case. His Midwest counterpart, Denis Osadebey, followed suit, saying that the outcome was a stupendous joke of the year. He pointed out that women were counted in purdah without being seen. The result was nullified by the Prime Minister and the country reverted to the 1953 figures.

    The fear of 1963 census gave birth to two alliances. The Southern based parties- the Action group (AG) and National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC)-teamed up under the United Progressives Grand Alliance (UPGA) to fight the Nigeria National Alliance (NNA), made up of the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) and Nigeria National Democratic Party (NNDP).

    In 1973, the military regime conducted its first census. It did not yield any meaningful result for planning. The chairman of the Census Board was the late Chief Justice Adetokunbo Ademola. According to the analysis, the North had 51 million and the South 28,758,696. The total population of the country was 79,758,969. As Agbowu pointed out, “of this, the six states Gowon created in the North were given 51 million while the six states in the South were allotted 28,758,969”. The analysis meant that the population of the North had jumped from 53.6 per cent in 1963 to 63.8 per cent in 1973. The Southern population had dwindled to 36.2 per cent from 46.4 per cent. The first Premier of Western Region, the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, promptly rejected the figures. He said the 1973/74 headcount was a “barren exercise”. Former Head of State Gen. Yakubu Gowon consequently withheld the final figures. His successor, the late Gen. Muritala Mohammed, later cancelled the controversial results.

    Second Republic President Shehu Shagari was planning for a census in 1983. He set up a census board headed by Alhaji Abdurahman Okene in 1981. But the headcount did not hold.

    Following the creation of

    states by the successive mili

    tary governments, the fighting spirit of the regional blocs and tribal organisations were, to some extent, broken. Thus, their reactions and criticisms of the 1991 census were mild. In the 1991 census, out of an estimated 88,992,220 Nigerians enumerated, the North was credited with 46,146,743; the South had 42,845,477. The figures were disputed. In 2006, the North had 75 million and the South had 64,978,376. In addition, there were 71.7 million males and 68.3 million females. To some, the gender distribution was laughable. For the North, it showed a 62.58 per cent increase. For the Southwest, is was 49.86 per cent. Southsouth’s figure of 21,014,655 represented a 48.86 per cent.

    Observers have pointed out that the 2006 exercise was a ruse. They had predicted gloom, ahead of the headcount. The polity was divided over the modalities. Christians demanded that religion should be an important element for consideration. The clergy and laity in Christendom were indirectly challenging their Muslim counterparts, who often claimed that their faithful were in the majority. Also, ethnic associations leading the agitations of the ethnic nationalities for relevance, insisted that the enumeration papers should shave columns for tribal status. Non-Muslims berated the counting of women in purdah, advising the enumerators to see the total picture of the person and not legs. The joke in many Southern Nigerian drinking joints was that, in the North, goats and sheep were counted as human beings.

    In his critical analysis of the census results from 1931 to 1991, Agbowu observed that “over the 60 year period, each region has maintained approximately the same proportion of total population without regard to changes and differences in demographics, economic factors and other sociological phenomena”.

    As a corollary to the “proportional representation”, Agbowu pointed out that “the internal rate of population growth for each region varies widely over the time, as well as varying significantly between regions”. The population of the West grew by 26.3 percent between 1931 and 1953. It grew by an astonishing 124.6 per cent between 1953 and 1963. But between 1963 and 1991, it slowed down by 63.6 per cent. On the other hand, the North had grown consistently and steadily by over 60 per cent between 1963 and 1991. The West and Midwest had the highest growth rate of over 70 per cent during the 60 year period, when compared with the average national rate of 65 per cent. This, to Agbowu, is a puzzle. “If the country as a whole grew at an average rate of 60 year period, one would have expected that the components, whose rates of growth, exceed the national average should show an increased proportion. But curiously, the West and Midwest have been clamped into the proportional population trap, and their growth artificially construed”, he added.

    Agbowu contended that “this mathematical accuracy that maintains the proportional balance between the regions in a manner, which keeps the population of the Northern Region at a level higher than the other regions put together, defiles logic. What the census result proves is that population distribution in Nigeria is the opposite of what obtains everywhere around the world. That the population is larger in the Northern-semi-arid and Sahara belt, than the southern forested area, is a kind of reverse gradient.

    Census is cumbersome and logistic problems may mar it. However, the internal politics of the country, which has always shaped the process and outcome, is more damaging. “Nigeria is afraid of counting itself. They even factor in their rigging permutations into the census preparation. We don’t know the accurate population of youths, adults, men and women, and children. Government wants to plan social policy for the aged, but data are unavailable”, said Ayodele. The university don warned that defective statistics will always result into defective planning.

    What is the way out? To get it right, Ayodele suggested the use of biometric method. He also said that there should be an enlightenment that will change orientation from the desire to rig the census to the advantage of the tribes, to the appreciation of its importance for planning. “The country should have a national identity and data bank. This will eliminate false enumeration. Any other means will be an exercise in futility”.

     

  • ‘APC will transform Anambra’

    ‘APC will transform Anambra’

    Anambra State All Progressives Congress (APC) governorship candidate Senator Chris Ngige has promised to transform the state, if elected into office.

    “My antecedents speak for me. I have done it before and I have a good legacy”, he said at a party meeting in Akwa, the state capital.

    In Ngige’s view, the November 16 poll is crucial to the future of the state. He said that he wanted to return to the State House to continue the good works he started in 2003.

    The APC candidate spoke ahead of the inauguration of his campaign committte today by the party leaders. Expected at the ceremony are Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola, his Imo and Nasarawa counterparts-Owelle Rochas Okorocha and Alhaji Al-Makura, the National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Layiwola Mohammed, and other chieftains.

    Ngige has been to many local governments for consultations and meetings. His campaign director, Chief George Moghalu, has also been mobilising support for his ambition among the stakeholders.

    November 16 is a litmus test for the APC. The party will test its strength, popularity and acceptance in the 37 year-old state for the first time.

    Eyes are on Ngige, who won the senatorial election against the APGA candidate, Prof. Dora Akuyili, in 2011. The question on the lip of many people is whether he can also win the governorship against all odds.

    Ngige’s APC is the only party that is not factionalised in Anambra State. The ruling All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) is in disarray. The party is in and out of court resolving the dispute generated by its rancorous primaries. Although the court has now pronounced Chief Willy Obiano as its candidate, his rivals at the shadow poll are still up in arms.

    Also, despite the court’s ruling, the gladiators locking horns over the party leadership have not sheathe their swords. Observers contend that the party may go for the poll without putting its house in order.

    Peace has also eluded the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). For weeks, Comrade Tony Nwoye and Senator Andy Uba have been struggling for the ticket. Parallel primaries produced the two aspirants as the flagbearers. Although the court has now ordered that the electoral commission should recognise Nwoye as the flag bearer, the move has not ended the crisis.

    PDP sources said that party chieftains opposed to Nwoye are planning to challenge the recent ruling of the High Court on the primaries at the Appeal Court. Also, tension has not ceased in the APGA because the national chairman, Chief Victor Umeh, and Maxi Okwu, who is challenging his leadership, has not surrendered.

    Ngige said the crises rocking the party is a pointer to the fact that they are not ready for repositioning the state. He said the APC is the only party that has the progressive blueprint to transform the state through responsible, accountable and transparent governance.

    Ngige, who represents Anambra Central Zone, in the Senate, promised to fight the infrastructure battle.

    Since his emergence as the APC flagbearer, his name has send jitters down the spines of other parties.

    Unlike the APGA and PDP candidates, he has political experience. Although he could not weather the storm as the governor in the past, he had bounced back on the scene by winning the senatorial election. Analysts believe that the APC flagbearer has a thick skin. In the Senate, he has also not been a bench warmer.

    APC is the only party that does not have any distracting suit in the court. This has assisted Ngige to project the image of a conseunsus builder and symbol of unity.

    Moghalu, who also spoke in Awka, said that power must shift to the APC on November 16.

    He said the APC governors have served the people creditably in the 11 states. Besides, the campaign manager said that the party has people-oriented manifestos, which were crafted after an indepth need analysis.

    He predicted that the so-called power of incumbency will collapse on pull day, adding that there will be no room for over-confidence on the part of Governor Peter Obi.

    Moghalu said the APC administration will insist on prudent management of scare resources and mobilise the talents of the indigenes to fuel development.

    However, many challenges will confront Ngige. One of them is the selection of his running mate.

     

     

  • Is national conference feasible before 2015?

    Is national conference feasible before 2015?

    Last week, Senate President David Mark threw his weight behind the call for a national conference to address the many ills plaguing the country. AUGUSTINE AVWODE and MUSA ODOSHIMOKHE examine its feasibility before 2015.

    For The Patriots, a group of eminent Nigerians, a national conference to address Nigeria’s socio-economic and political problems, should hold before 2015. This was their position when they visited President Goodluck Jonathan in August. The group was led by its chairman, Prof. Ben Nwabueze, (SAN).

    Briefing reporters after the meeting, Nwabueze said, “We talked about the transformation of this country. Its entire economy, the entire polity and the entire society would need to be transformed. We believe that the way to achieve that objective is through a national conference, a national conference of ethnic nationalities in this country.

    “We need to bring these nationalities around a conference table, to discuss how we are going to live together as one country in peace, in stability, in security with the aim of achieving national unity. As of today, we are not a nation yet; we are a state. So, that is the gist of what we put forward to Mr. President and that this conference should be conveyed as a matter of priority as soon as possible, in any event, before 2015 general elections.”

    The President’s response was reassuring. He said he was concerned about finding a workable platform for a national dialogue that will reinforce the ties that bind the country’s many ethnic nationalities together.

    He pointed out that the National Assembly has a major role to play in any process that will lead to such a dialogue. “The limitation we have is that the constitution appears to have given that responsibility to the National Assembly. I have also been discussing the matter with the leadership of the National Assembly. We want a situation where everyone will key into the process and agree on the way forward”, President Jonathan said.

    In a way, Jonathan tactically passed the ball into the court of the National Assembly. Therefore, when Senate President, David Mark endorsed the call for a national conference in the country, it was a piece of cheering news to many.

    According to Mark, “We live in very precarious times, and in a world increasingly made fluid and toxic by strange ideologies and violent tendencies, all of which presently conspire to question the very idea of the nation state. But that is not to say that the nation should, like the proverbial ostrich, continue to bury its head in the sand and refuse to confront the perceived or alleged structural distortions which have bred discontentment and alienation in some quarters.

    “This sense of discontentment and alienation has fueled extremism, apathy and even predictions of catastrophe for our dear nation. A conference of Nigeria’s ethnic nationalities, called to foster frank and open discussions of the national question, can certainly find accommodation in the extant provisions of the 1999 Constitution which guarantee freedom of expression, and of association”, Mark declared.

    2015 target not feasible

    Howver, the question is whether such a conference is feasible or not before the 2015 general election as suggested by the Patriots. While many people have applauded the position taken by Mark, they have, however, said the 2015 target is not feasible and that it might even cause more dislocation in the polity. In fact, to politicians in the opposition camp, the endorsement of a national conference by Mark at this point in time is simply a diversionary tactic.

    Speaking to The Nation last Friday, Executive Director, Human Rights Monitor, Chief Festus Okoye said the prevailing insecurity in the country, crises in some of the political parties and the fact that elections are slated for 2015, all combined to make it practically impossible.

    “A national conference before 2015 is not possible. The present insecurity challenges, which the country is facing in the Northeast and Northwest zones of the country is an obstacle.

    “Again, apart from the issues of kidnapping and armed robbery in the Southeast and South-south regions, there are crises in some parties. Most importantly, elections are approaching, which are slated for 2015. We don’t want a situation where politicians will hijack the process to further their own interests.

    “In the final analysis, both the objective and subjective conditions for a national conference are not available now. For me, I would rather call for a systematic completion of the review of the constitution, before anything is done in respect of a national conference ”, he said.

    Former Governor of Edo State Chief John Oyegun agreed with Okoye. He called for the ‘salvaging’ of the country first, before embarking on a national conference.

    “It is our idea; we have been calling for it. But just now, or before 2015 is not feasible. What I want us to do first, is salvage the country from the hand of those who have kept us down in the last 14 years. When we have rescued Nigeria, then, we can now tell Nigerians that we all need to sit down and talk. The atmosphere now is too tense for any meaningful dialogue. We are on the verge of salvaging Nigeria, we have to salvage the country first, we don’t want this diversionary thing, and we will not be taken in by this approach. When we have the power to call a meaningful national conference, we will do it. But first, it is the soul of the country that must be salvaged”.

    Legal luminary and chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Chief Mike Ahamba, described the 2015 target, as advocated by the Patriot as a “grave mistake”. He pointed out that there is no law in place which empowers the National Assembly to facilitate such a conference to be attended by people other than members of the National Assembly”.

    He referred the Senate and House of Representatives to what happened in 1977, when a law was enacted, and which led to the setting up of a Constituent Assembly. It was that Constituent Assembly, he pointed out, that produced the 1979 Constitution.

    “If we target a particular date, say, 2015, we will be making a grave mistake. There must be an enabling law, first. The members are going to come from outside the National Assembly, and if that is the case; then, there must be a law like that of 1977. It formed the basis of the Constituent Assembly which produced the 1979 Constitution. “All these things are contained in the memo that I submitted to the National Assembly in respect of the constitution review some time ago. It is when that has been done, that we can now fix a time and approach it slowly. Not set a target that it must be before 2015”, Ahamba said.

    Apart from the issue of a targeted date, which is said to be inauspicious; the whole idea of a national conference does not sound quite logical to others. Former Minister of Police Affairs and now chieftain of the APC, Dr Ibrahim Lame is simply not enthusiastic about the idea of a national conference. He told The Nation that, those proposing a national conference, are yet to define exactly what they mean and what they want. He said the nation’s problems won’t be solved through a conference. “My qualm is that nobody has defined exactly what they mean by national conference; nobody has told us anything about what they mean, what they want to achieve and who will go. So, I don’t understand them, and I am sure many people also don’t understand what they are talking about. Look, I acknowledge the fact that Nigeria has problems, yes, but we don’t have to necessarily go through a national conference to solve these problems. I don’t think a conference in itself, is a panacea to Nigeria’s problems”.

    Dr. Lame offered a different route out of the country’s problems. He said what the country needs is ‘doing the right thing’ by following the rule of law. he added thatNigeria must establish proper leadership recruitment system.

    “What I think Nigeria can do is establish the rule of law and follow it religiously; make sure that leaders are accountable to the people and establish a process that will ensure a proper recruitment of future leaders. What we need is capacity building and capacity utilization. Once that is done, all this talk of a conference will be unnecessary. What I see is a ploy by the proponent s of the national conference to create job for their hangers-on, their friends, cronies and siphon the resources of this country for their personal use”, he said.

    However, others expressed optimism about the workability of the 2015 target date. One of such people is former Minister of Information Prince Tony Momoh. He told The Nation that it is possible to have the conference. “The major issue is political. When you address political problem, the economic problem is automatically solved. If you have a particular arrangement, where one man dictates what happens, then there will be problems. There was a time we had three regions, Nigeria worked. Then we have four, 12, 19, 21, 30 and now, we have 36.

    “People are still calling for the creation of more states. The more you split up Nigeria, the more you spend money on running the country. The less you have, the less it becomes burdensome. Everywhere in the world, development is part of democracy. In Nigeria, we put democracy ahead of development; that will not work. There is the need to meet to discuss what is needed to grow Nigeria. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo tried it in 2005, but instead of moving in that direction, they were working at extending his tenure. So, they could not achieve that, they did everything possible to nail the process.

    “We must all recognize the need to spend less money running Nigeria than we are doing now. We spend more than 80 per cent of our money running Nigeria, which is recurrent expenditure. We should not spend up to 20 per cent running Nigeria. The other 80 per cent should be for development. Government is for the security and welfare of the people.

    “We can do this between now and the 2015 election. And what we should go for is the parliamentary system, not presidential. We should equally go for part time parliamentary legislature, and not full time. If we have the political will, it can be done before 2015”.

    Similarly, Senator Femi Lanlehin agreed with Momoh. He said: “the conference can hold before 2015 because it is all about how to run the country. In doing this, all shades of opinion must be considered. All nationalities must be involved, the positions they take would have to be considered and then passed through the National Assembly.

    “We can have a national conference, if the people are serious about it. For instance, the conference can even look at the modus of transition. I think if we are serious about having a conference, from now to 2015, it can be done”, Lanlehin said.

    However, whether the age long call for a conference to discuss the national question will take place now or later, only time can tell.