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Category: Special Report

  • Economic template for total reset as tax laws take effect

    Economic template for total reset as tax laws take effect

    Despite opposition to and the ripples that attended the introduction of the Federal Government’s new tax laws, their implementation is now a foregone conclusion. All that needs to be on the radar at the moment is monitoring and evaluation to ascertain if their impacts match government’s promises and assuage the concerns of the citizenry, writes Group Business Editor, SIMEON EBULU.

    Opposition to the newly introduced tax laws by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu came early. They faced their first litmus test at the meeting of the National Economic Council (NEC), chaired by the Vice-President, Kashim Shettima, with the 36 states’ governors in attendance. They had resolved at that early stage of deliberation to keep the laws in abeyance until, in their opinion, further consultation was done.

    NEC felt that the bills were sent to the National Assembly without sufficient consultation with key stakeholders, and as such, broader consultation was required to ensure alignment and inclusiveness for the benefit of everyone.

    Also, the proposition model for distributing Value Added Tax (VAT), which sought to change the existing formula to one based largely on derivation, was a major point of contention. Northern governors, in particular, argued that since corporations from which VAT proceeds are derived are located down south, it follows, so they posited, that VAT remittances would favour the region and disproportionately disadvantage the North, regardless of where products are consumed.

    The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), in league with some lawmakers, also latched on to this, arguing that introducing new taxes or increasing existing ones would further burden the already struggling populace and small businesses. There were also concerns that some aspects of the bills, regarding the creation of a centralised Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), to succeed the Federal Internal Revenue Service (FIRS), might disrupt the balance of fiscal federalism and potentially conflict with the Nigerian Constitution, requiring constitutional amendments.

    NEC rose from that meeting with a call to the President to withdraw the tax bills to give room for more consultation. At that point, the Tax Bills were thought to be dead on arrival, but no, not with Mr President. An opposition that would not recede from its avowed stance on stalling the tax laws, also met with a President that would not relent in his resolve to ensure that the right thing was done.

    Tinubu, rather than acceding to the NEC’s advice to withdraw the bills entirely, opted for the legislative process, including public hearings, as other avenues to address the concerns raised by NEC. That was the right thing to do. He turned the documents over to the people’s representatives, the National Assembly. The issues were eventually resolved through further dialogue and negotiation, leading to a revised VAT sharing formula that all parties, including the Northern Governors’ Forum, later endorsed.

    The Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee and arrowhead of the tax reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, took on the gauntlet and eventually pushed through the passage of the laws, which were assented to by Mr President in June, 2025.

    The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee engaged different strategies, including media interviews and stakeholder consultations, among others, to clarify and showcase the benefits of the reforms, particularly for low-income earners and small businesses. He said the reforms will not increase the tax burden on the poor, and that VAT will not apply to essential items, such as food, health and education. He pointed out that the new tax regime will benefit small businesses through zero corporate tax rates.

    Just as the dust was settling on the various controversies around the tax laws and the groundbreaking for the implementation was almost at hand, two issues suddenly popped up, the one around the allegation that the version of the laws passed by the National Assembly was different from what was gazetted, and the other, the alarm raised by Allen Onyema, the Chairman/CEO of Air Peace, that implementing the new Tax laws in their present format, would harm, or jeopardise airline businesses. The outcry further fueled and encouraged dissenting voices, with calls being made to the Presidency to investigate the allegation, and as well postpone the implementation of the new tax laws.

    Onyema, who aired his views on Arise News Television, said the taxes which include Customs duties on imported aircraft, aircraft parts and engines, as well as VAT on tickets will further burden airlines with additional costs.

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    “There is VAT now on the importation of aircraft. So, if you buy an aircraft of $80 million, you are supposed to pay 7.5 per cent of $80 million. Do the mathematics, from money borrowed from the bank; interest rates are 30 to 35 per cent. So, you bring in spare parts, you pay 7.5 per cent on your spare parts. The airline industry cannot withstand additional burdens under the new tax laws. If we implement that tax reform, Nigerian airlines will go down in three months,” he warned.

    Oyedele, however, allayed those fears, saying the new taxes were not designed to hinder businesses, let alone kill them. He said rather than increase air fares, the new tax laws will support Nigeria’s aviation industry and reduce costs. While acknowledging the challenges facing the aviation sector, particularly the burden of multiple taxes, levies and regulatory charges, Oyedele stressed “we are not responsible for the sector’s problems,” saying on the contrary, “the reforms are part of the solution, not the source of the problem.”

    Presidential seal

     In the midst of the discordant voices questioning the veracity of the new tax laws, the President’s voice sounded once again with an unmistakable air of finality, saying that implementing the new taxes across the board is a task that must be done. In an unprecedented move, intended to erase any doubts on his resolve about the tax matters, Tinubu personally issued a statement which, in all material particulars, put paid to any controversy on the tax issues and their admissibility into Nigeria’s tax codes, going forward.

    Tinubu, in the statement, said the tax laws will continue as planned, adding, “these reforms are a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build a fair, competitive and robust fiscal foundation for our country.” For those who have misconstrued the intent of the taxes to be anti-enterprise, saying their implementation will kill businesses, the President said the tax laws, on the contrary is not designed to raise taxes, but to support a structural reset, drive harmonisation and protect dignity while strengthening the social contract. While calling for stakeholders’ support at this “implementation phase,” he assured all Nigerians that the Federal Government would continue to act in the overriding public interest to ensure a tax system that supports prosperity and shared responsibility.

    Stakeholders’ endorsement

     With the roll-out of the new tax laws, the Manufacturers’ Association of Nigeria (MAN) has thrown its weight behind the new tax regime. MAN Director-General Segun Ajayi-Kadir said manufacturers are optimistic that a more business-friendly tax regime is in the offing.

    Manufacturers’ optimism is predicated on their belief that the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration’s tax reforms would put an end to multiple and sometimes illegal taxes by various tiers of government.

    This is on the strength of tax harmonisation promised by the reforms, which streamlines revenue administration and eliminates multiple, overlapping taxes by consolidating over a dozen federal tax laws into a single unified statute and encouraging states to do the same.

    The Managing Director/CEO of Coleman Technical Industries Limited, manufacturers of wires and cables, George Onafowokan, however, said the biggest concern for businesses and investors with regard to the implementation of the new tax laws is misinformation.

    “There is more misinformation than correct information. The government needs to do more to explain the tax laws and their benefits,” he said, while commending aspects of the reforms that provide relief for low-income earners.

    Onafowokan warned that poor communication and immediate enforcement without sufficient transition time could distort markets, recalling how misinformation recently triggered significant losses in the stock market.

    He also clarified that withholding tax on savings interest remains a final tax, dismissing fears of double taxation and urged authorities to intensify public education on the reforms.

    Onafowokan’s hint on ‘sufficient transition time’ aligns with suggestions by some manufacturers that there should be a brief pause in implementation to allow for wider stakeholder engagement and clear guidelines to ensure better compliance and acceptance.

    Despite manufacturers’ support, the implementation of the new tax regime hasn’t been without some controversies, one of which is the alleged discrepancies between the laws passed by the National Assembly and the gazetted versions.

    This led to calls for the suspension of its implementation by other groups and some lawmakers. Nonetheless, the Federal Government has kick- started the process, as the President affirmed, there’s “no going back.”

    The Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Oyedele, insisted there was no stopping the process.

    The President, Bank Customers’ Association of Nigeria (BCAN), Dr Uju Ogubunka, said taxation should be based on income. He said as a finance expert and consultant, transactions that are not based on income should not be taxed, saying he expects the government to properly educate the people on what should be taxed, to avoid fears and panic that would lead many businesses to operate underground and report nothing.

    “I think that across the world, what is usually taxed as income and not turnover. If you push businesses into believing that a lot of their resources will be taxed, they are likely to operate underground and ensure that not much of their funds pass through the banks.”

    He said that tax authorities should educate retirees on what the tax policy entails, whether retirement funds should be taxed, unless there are proceeds from established businesses.

    Ogubunka said the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has spent years pushing for financial inclusion, and a badly implemented tax policy could hurt such achievements. “The tax authorities should look out for justifiable income and tax it. They cannot tax anything that is not earned or capital for businesses. Once these lines are not crossed, I see business compliance rising and the economy better for it,” adding that a badly implemented tax policy could reduce businesses’ transactions in banks, and that will not impact positively on the economy.

    Also, the President/Chairman of Council of the Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria (CITN), Innocent Ohagwa, said as the pre-eminent tax institution in Nigeria, CITN’s concern is in ensuring that due legislative process is observed and not breached, especially in respect of an important subject matter as taxation, which thrives on exactitude of tax legislation.

    He said that the integrity of the tax process will command respect and enhance compliance, pointing out that no effort should be spared in getting it right from the onset to avoid overwhelming challenges in the future.

    He said tax authorities should strive to ensure that any observed discrepancies, whether arising from procedural lapses, administrative errors, or unauthorised alterations in the tax policy, are corrected. According to him, the Nigerian constitution and established parliamentary practice require that laws assented to and gazetted must be identical to those duly passed by the legislature and that any post-passage changes must follow constitutionally recognised procedures. He warned that deviation from this standard, intentional or otherwise, compromises the rule of law, separation of powers, predictability and stability in the tax system.

    Ohagwa insisted that the integrity of the legislative process is fundamental to the rule of law, good governance, and public confidence in democratic institutions. In his words: “Tax legislation, in particular, requires the highest level of accuracy, transparency, and procedural fidelity due to its far-reaching implications for government revenue, businesses, professionals and citizens,” he said.

    Expressing support for the new tax regime, the President of Nigeria Institution of Estate Surveyors and Valuers (NIESV), Dr Victor Alonge, said the relief in the tax composition is not only a plus for the real estate sector, but also, in his opinion, one of the most beneficial laws for Nigerian workers. He said “about 90 per cent of workers will not be paying taxes and small businesses are also exempted from taxation in the new tax regime,” stating that the relief will lead to higher disposable income which can be invested in real estate. Residential properties are not expected to pay VAT but construction companies are expected to pay. If properly managed, he said, the impact of taxation on building materials will not be pushed to subscribers.

    The CEO of Housing Development Advocacy Network (HDAN), Festus Adebayo, said that one of the likely impacts of the new tax regime, among others, is Rent Relief.

    He said: “Tenants can claim up to N200, 000 or 20 per cent of annual rent as tax relief, potentially increasing demand for rental properties.”

    He said a 1.5 per cent tax on high-value homes of about N500 million and above may discourage luxury property investments, potentially shifting focus to mid-range housing. Increased Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rates ranging from 30 per cent for companies and 15-25 per cent for individuals may affect property valuations and investment decisions,” he said.

    He said there will be VAT exemptions for residential properties, while commercial properties and construction services are still subject to 7.5 percent VAT. Adebayo, however, said that there will be withholding tax exemptions for Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) aimed at promoting investment in the sector.

    Expectedly, the new tax regime aims to boost revenue, promote transparency, and encourage affordable housing. It will slow luxury sales and impact investor confidence.

    Chief Operating Officer, QShelter, Adegbenga Alamu, said the new tax regime will have no negative effect on real estate. He said for Home Buyers, the interest is allowable as deduction before taxation, and it encourages people to buy from their savings.

    The capital market is expectant as the new tax laws take off. Market pundits expect harmonisation of taxes, clarity and certain reliefs in the new tax laws to positively impact corporate earnings, and thus the attractiveness and liquidity of the market.

    However, there were concerns about the possible negative effect of the introduction of what stakeholders described as excessive Capital Gains Tax (CGT).

    Managing Director, High Cap Securities, David Adonri, said while investors were not averse to overdue tax reform, the issue of Capital Gains Tax (CGT) has continued to fuel anxiety in the capital market.

    He said: “Soon after the enactment of the new Tax Act, equities reacted with a massive selloff due to the reintroduction of CGT at a massive rate of 30 per cent for transactions above N150 million. The selloffs stopped when the Minister of Finance promised to review the policy.” However, now that we are approaching implementation without concrete action, nobody can predict the reaction of investors moving forward.”

    A Senior Investment Banker and Fellow of Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), Abiodun Adeniran, also agreed that CGT was a major concern, but expressed optimism that the engagement between market stakeholders and the government would find a positive balance.

    “The specific capital market concern is on the CGT, and there are ongoing efforts in collaboration with the relevant authorities on how to mitigate the effects,” Adeniran said.

    Like in other sectors, operators in the Aviation Industry have expressed worry on how the implementation of the new tax law will affect air travel and other allied aviation services.

    Pilot and Aviation Economist, Captain Samuel Caulcrick and the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Aero Contractors, Charles Grant, opined that the new tax regime could plunge the air transport into further crisis, akin to similar fears expressed by the Chairman/CEO of Air Peace Airline, Allen Onyema.

    The airline chiefs have urged the Federal Government to deepen engagement with players across the economic spectrum, so as to achieve seamless and effective implementation of the new tax.

    Caulcrick warned that the economy, including the aviation ecosystem, could be negatively impacted and nosedive until everyone paid their fair share of taxes to the right coffers.

    He insisted that a market economy without a robust tax system lacked the main ingredient to prevent market distortions.

    Grant on his part, observed that   excessive taxation and policy inconsistencies, are crippling Nigerian airlines and threatening the sector’s capacity to contribute meaningfully to the economy.

    He insisted that the sector could not survive under the present newly introduced tax template.

    Grant said the government should see aviation as a platform for commerce, trade and integration, rather than a luxury to be slammed with high-end tax.

    “One cannot tax what doesn’t survive. You have to enable it before you extract,” he said.

    Grant said domestic passenger traffic had dropped by about three per cent since 2022, despite increasing travel demand in a country of over 200 million people.

    He attributed this decline to multiple taxes and rising operational costs, which he declared had pushed ticket prices beyond the reach of average travellers.

    He explained that airlines currently pay several levies, including Ticket Sales Charge (TSC), Passenger Service Charge (PSC), Value Added Tax (VAT), Customs Duties, navigation and over flight fees and ground-handling charges.

    These costs, he stated, make it difficult for the operators to remain profitable, or expand their route networks. “Passengers are being priced out, while airlines operate on razor-thin margins. The outcome is fewer flights, grounded aircraft, and job losses across the value chain.”

    He appealed to the government to restore VAT exemptions on aviation inputs, enforce Customs waivers and eliminate overlapping taxes that make air travel more expensive in Nigeria than in most African markets.

    The President of Association of Micro-Entrepreneurs of Nigeria (AMEN), Prince Savior Iche, raised a red flag over the potential economic fallout of the federal government’s newly signed tax reforms. Speaking on the implications of the Nigeria Tax Act 2025, Iche warned that the implementation of the new fiscal policies is set to trigger a significant hike in the prices of essential commodities, further squeezing the disposable income of average Nigerians.

    The AMEN leader expressed deep concern that the legislative changes would exacerbate the existing high cost of living, which many households are already struggling to manage. He pointed to the lingering effects of previous fiscal adjustments, specifically the Value Added Tax (VAT) increase implemented during the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari, as a primary source of the current economic hardship. According to Iche, many Nigerians are already “paying through their nose” due to the cumulative weight of various taxes and levies.

    A significant point of contention for the micro-entrepreneurial body is the impact of transaction-based taxes. Iche highlighted the burden of daily charges on bank transactions, noting that the frequency and volume of these deductions often go unnoticed by policymakers but represent a substantial drain on the capital of small business owners and the savings of ordinary citizens. He questioned whether the government truly appreciates the extent of the financial strain these incremental charges place on the public.

    “Everything will escalate and increase the cost of living,” Iche stated, emphasising that the new tax regime could not have come at a worse time. He argued that instead of providing relief, the upcoming changes might lead to a price surge across various sectors, as businesses seek to offset their increased tax liabilities by passing the costs onto consumers.

  • THE 2026 OUTLOOK: PROLOGUE

    THE 2026 OUTLOOK: PROLOGUE

    Nigeria’s audition year

    Nigeria does not step into 2026 so much as it drifts there, bearing the weight of a previous year that refused to end quietly.

    The country arrives with receipts folded into its pocket—grievances, catastrophes, breakthroughs and aspirations—each rustling to fate’s torrid leash.

    This is not a threshold crossed cleanly. It is a season entered with the gait of a people who have learned to listen for danger and opportunity at the same time.

    Nothing about 2026 feels incidental. Politics hums beneath ordinary speech, turning casual conversations into coded rehearsals. And every movement of the state seems angled toward a reckoning that lies a year ahead. The 2027 elections have leaked into the present, colouring legislation, stiffening alliances, and accentuating betrayals. The country senses this instinctively; a republic can feel when it is being tested, after all.

    This is the year when institutions reveal their efficiency depths, perhaps. Habits, hardened over decades will surface under pressure. The reflex to litigate politics, manage dissent instead of listening to it, and celebrate reforms faster than outcomes can mature, will meet a citizenry whose patience has thinned into hostile scrutiny.

    The ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC), enters the year psyched with ambition yet plagued by unease. Size, in Nigerian politics, has never guaranteed coherence. It breeds factions, competing centres of gravity, and rival interpretations of loyalty. Party congresses loom, and with them the familiar permutations: parallel meetings, disputed delegates, and consensus discovered after dissent has been buried. Courts, once again, will be invited to settle quarrels that party execs and ideology fail to resolve.  The judiciary will be tasked with lending legitimacy to disputes that should have been resolved long before robes entered the picture and injunctions became headline.

    Opposition politics moves differently, less encumbered by incumbency yet equally haunted by fragmentation. Economic pressure has given opposition language an edge it lacked in easier years. Inflation, transport costs, food prices no longer sound like abstract failures when spoken aloud. The impact is felt in kitchens and register at bus stops. Whether opposition figures cohere into a credible alternative matters less, for now, than the fact that competition itself has grown volatile. The certainty of outcomes has thinned as opposition politics, once strategised and choreographed, now improvises with guerrilla tactics.

    Inside the National Assembly, re-election anxiety influence behaviour as legislators listen more closely to party structures than to public mood. Oversight softens and controversial bills travel faster than persuasion ever could. The logic is brutally simple: survival first, principle later. Or never.

    This atmosphere makes law itself feel provisional. Nowhere is this clearer than in the arguments surrounding taxation. The tax reform laws scheduled to take effect at the beginning of 2026 have exposed a deeper crisis than statutory interpretation. Civil society groups question process as lawmakers dispute texts. The Presidency distances itself even as the chair of the tax reform committee offers clarification. Each political actor attempts to anchor/project authority, yet the real issue lies elsewhere.

    Trust is scarce in the Nigerian clime, hence, the process requires moral substance beyond procedural detail. When citizens suspect that laws can shape-shift between passage and publication, obedience erodes irredeemably. Taxation, more than any other policy, depends on belief, but while the state may compel payment, it cannot compel consent. Thus, compliance may congeal to resentment and even, sabotage, as distrust persists. This is the terrain 2026 inherits.

    Through it all, the economy splays into the year bearing bruises. Subsidy removal, currency volatility, and inflation have morphed from economic shocks to social conditions. Small businesses have collapsed and those that haven’t remain locked in an intense struggle against doomsday contingence. As households learn resilience in the face of militating odds, the government’s mantra of hope remains disciplined and insistent. Yet, the citizens adamantly ask: where is the relief?

    The figures are sobering. The proposed 2026 federal budget stands at roughly N58.18 trillion, ambitious in scale yet constricted by obligation. Debt servicing alone consumes N15.52 trillion. The deficit, projected at about 4.28 percent of GDP, bellows a familiar truth: the state dreams loudly while interest waits patiently. Nigeria’s public debt, reported at N152.4 trillion by mid-2025, shadows every promise made at the podium.

    A vast federal budget, heavy debt service obligations, and a persistent deficit sketch a portrait of ambition under constraint. Public debt figures requires governments at all levels to demonstrate that borrowing translates into tangible improvement. As the pressures of reform travel downward, impacting citizens already stretched thin, anger will not stem solely from hardship. Nigerians have endured difficulty before, what stings is asymmetry: sacrifice preached downward the economic totem pole, while insulation persists above. Calls for citizenry endurance must be matched by ruling class restraint. Evidence of transparent accounting and governance will matter more than rhetoric.

    Yet electoral pressure will accelerate action: 2026 will witness a surge of visible projects. Roads will multiply, power interventions will be announced, the security architecture will expand even as agricultural programmes reappear. But while some initiatives will reflect genuine intent, others will manifest as hurried legacies dressed for inspection.

    For business and investment, activity will persist despite macroeconomic stress. Agriculture will draw attention, driven by food insecurity’s political and economic weight. Agro-processing and value-chain infrastructure will beckon capital. Technology will continue its ascent, powered by a youth economy impatient with inefficiency. Fintech, digital services, and innovation hubs will expand where regulation allows scale. Energy will remain central as renewables, mini-grids, and embedded generation attract focus, responding to a power supply that taxes every enterprise. Still, opportunity will coexist with hazard. Policy inconsistency, regulatory surprises, insecurity, and permit politics will test resilience while agility rivals capital as a survival skill.

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    This year, global currents will reshape domestic stakes. As the competition for critical minerals intensifies, supply chains will reorganise under protectionist pressure. For Nigeria, endowed with resources yet scarred by extractive history, the moment intones dual potential: local value addition could open doors to jobs and industrial depth. Transparent licensing and processing capacity could also shift the country’s role in global supply chains. Beyond the signalling of reform and intent to revolutionise the sector, the measure of success will lie in due process and credible institutions. Systems that resist corruption and reward patience will determine whether 2026 marks an industrial pivot or another chapter of export bereft of development.

    Security, too, enters the year wearing a harder face and heavier boots. The 2026 budget assigns N5.41 trillion to defence and internal security—the largest single allocation to any sector—thus signalling more proactive and aggressive security measures. A new model of surveillance and consolidation of military operations: unified command, and intelligence-led operations, may trigger a decisive shift in the extermination of bandits, terrorists, militias, and armed separatists. Such a measure could also ignite a reclassification of such non-state actors into a single category—terrorists—stripped of romantic euphemism.

    As President Tinubu’s administration emphasises a new culture of digital sovereignty, AI-assisted intelligence, nationwide digital forensics laboratories, and cyber defences built around financial and energy infrastructure, it must assert legitimacy at the grassroots through the Renewed Hope Ward Development Plan, an attempt to seed community intelligence across 8,809 wards.

    Yet money and digitised architecture may not adequately resolve geographic threats, if the northwest and northcentral regions remain porous, letting bandits and kidnappers exploit roam free. This may manifest more severely as humanitarian agencies warn of disruption of farming cycles at the peak of May season.

    Baring more decisive military operations, the northeast may further herald terrorist persistence in the blind spots of Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa; the southeast may simmer with separatist terror that flares unpredictably, despite official claims of gradual normalisation. The Niger Delta hums with the threat of sabotage as militancy and electoral bargaining converge around pipelines and protection contracts. Nigeria remains ranked high on the Global Terrorism Index, travel advisories urge caution, as Sahelian disorder seep toward the country’s weakened borders.

    Over all, these tarnish projections for 2027, a season analysts fear could loosen restraint and invite politically induced instability, even as non-physical threats like cyber fraud and sabotage of financial systems rise in sophistication. The state chooses scale and technology as its answer, but the year will test whether intelligence can outrun distrust, and security, pursued ambitiously, can still be felt in ordinary lives.

    Yet 2026 will not manifest only through anxiety. It also arrives swathed in spectacle and rhythm. Nigeria’s story has never been told by power alone. It has always been completed elsewhere: on dance floors, in recording studios, inside stadiums, and across glowing phone screens held by young hands that refuse to be “handled.” If politics triggers tension, culture will provide the counterpoint.

    Nigeria’s entertainment industry enters 2026 quite confidently. According to PwC, the country’s entertainment and media sector, valued at about $9 billion, is projected to reach $13.6 billion by 2028, making it the fastest-growing in Africa. This growth outpaces global averages and places Nigeria ahead of peers like Kenya, projected at $4.8 billion, and narrows the gap with South Africa’s more mature market.

    The drivers are visible everywhere: social media amplifies culture and monetises it, and internet advertising revenue, alone, is expected to double reflecting 2023-2028 estimates. Afrobeats and Nollywood will continue their outward spiral, reaching audiences that once seemed unreachable as culture becomes Nigeria’s most persuasive diplomat.

    Indeed, entertainment is no longer a side conversation, it has become a serious economy and technology deepens the transformation: artificial intelligence transforms production as 5G reconstitutes space for cloud gaming, immersive streaming, and new storytelling forms. Infrastructure gaps persist yet the direction is unmistakable.

    Sport, however, tells a more complicated story as Nigeria enters 2026 nursing disappointment. The Super Eagles’ failure to qualify for the FIFA World Cup—following a loss to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in late 2025—resonates jarringly among football fans, even as local sports authorities petition FIFA over DRC’s fielding of ineligible players thus seeking participation through the back door. Symbolically, absence from the world’s biggest stage unsettles a nation that has long prided itself on its football prowess—not minding losses in prize money, global acclaim, and commercial revenue.

    The Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco yet awaits, with Super Eagles preparing for the knockout rounds under pressure to the redeem the narrative. The Super Falcons equally look to reenact their Women’s Africa Cup of Nations championship with storied vigour. Domestically, attention turns inward as the federal government proposes a N78 billion spending for sports development, the largest capital allocation in years.

    Thus, Nigeria enters 2026 with its options intact. The country can refine systems while leaving human experience peripheral. It can also dignify policies with empathy and so doing earn the citizenry’s enduring goodwill and trust.

    In the end, this year will serve as an audition. Every nation approaching an election year lives through a rehearsal. For Nigeria, that rehearsal is called 2026.

  • 2026: Year of realignments, defining political battles

    2026: Year of realignments, defining political battles

    The eyes of the world are on Nigeria as the Africa’s most populous country warms up for 2027 electioneering. Political parties are preparing for congresses and conventions. Aspirants are returning to the drawing board. The National Assembly is amending the 1999 Constitution and reworking the Electoral Act. Deputy Editor, Emmanuel Oladesu, examines the power players, events and factors that will shape politics this year.

    Political conflicts, expectedly, would characterise most parts of the year, being the period of nominations for the general election and a critical year preceding another handover. The contestation would cut across parties, tiers of government, districts, and constituencies.

    Politicians would return to the drawing board to perfect strategies for scheming, horse trading and compromises. Intra-party rifts over shadow polls and inter-party crisis arising from hot competition and campaigns for power may unleash tension on the polity. There would, as usual, be resort to media war and propaganda.

    Attention may wholly shift from governance to politicking. Resignations from the federal cabinet and state executive councils, party congresses, zoning or rotational agitations, and partisan endorsements would serve as a prelude to the titanic battle of choice, change or affirmation of leadership.

    POWER PLAYERS

    Bola Ahmed Tinubu

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is on the hot seat. But he is determined to make Nigeria work. He is living up to expectation by fulfilling many of his campaign promises. But, much still needs to be accomplished.

    According to observers, he faces three challenges as he prepares for the third anniversary of his administration. These are economy, security and his quest for deserving continuity, which would gear up his rivals in other parties for determined or feeble resistance.

    From major indications, the economy is stabilising, thanks to bold socio-economic reforms. But there are still complaints that macro-economic stability without corresponding improvement in the quality of life of the citizenry does not inspire hope. Government has reported a revenue surge, following the blockage of loopholes in the oil sector and the strengthening of revenue generating agencies.

    On this front, the much-heralded tax reforms would come under further scrutiny. Last closed to controversy over the legislations following claims that what was gazetted was different from what the National Assembly passed. President Tinubu and his team insisted that this wasn’t the case and pressed on despite the spirited efforts of opposition figures to delegitimise the reforms. The world would be watching to see if the new legislations help the government achieve its pre-stated goals.

    Economic experts have advised that the money should be channelled into productive activities and promotion of public welfare, particularly by the sub-national units. Improvement should reflect in job creation, infrastructural development, revival of the manufacturing sector, stable electricity, consistent investment flow, and conducive environment for business growth.

    Security, as from this year, would be a major campaign issue. It is gratifying that apart from the military assistance and collaboration with the Unites States military, the Nigerian Armed Forces have doubled their efforts to rid the country of terror. Major breakthroughs are being recorded.

    Many of the security challenges, as argued by observers, may be politically motivated. Despite the improvement much still needs to be accomplished, and with speed.

    Nigerians expect the actualisation of state or multi-layer policing through constitutional amendment by the National Assembly. The lawmakers – many of who cannot even go to their towns, constituencies and districts out of fear of banditry, kidnapping and other forms of violence – should take up the challenge of constitution review with patriotism and passion in the new year.

    Eyes will also be on the highly rated Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa, to justify the huge confidence reposed in him by Nigerians across the six zones. He has been pulled back from retirement to take up the patriotic duty of liberating the North from terror and banditry. With the right military tactics, strategies, personnel, equipment and cooperation of all stakeholders, he should be able to make a difference, and without controversy over real or imagined ransom payment.

    There is no doubt that President Tinubu’s re-election prospects would be significantly boosted by any success he is able to achieve in the war against insecurity. Aside collaboration with foreign powers, there is also effort being made to procure more armaments for the armed forces. Hopefully, these efforts would change narrative for the better in large parts of Northern Nigeria.

    In his ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Tinubu, who has been endorsed for a second term, may be warming up for a coronation as candidate during the presidential convention. But the endorsement by the majority does not prevent interested stalwarts from throwing their hats into the ring. The only difference between APC and other parties is that presidential nomination squabble or tension in the ruling party would be so minimal while the opposition parties may still have to contend with peculiar internal contradictions, division and other inevitable partisan hurdles.

    As a politician and active player, the president’s attention may be distracted by power play and scheming that’s bound to dominate 2026 as the country builds up to next year’s general election.

    Atiku Abubakar and ADC

    At almost 80, the lion is still roaring, but there is no prey in sight to devour. For the old political warhorse, 2026 is critical to a long standing ambition to rule Nigeria, an aspiration he developed 33 years ago.

    On six occasions – 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023, the crown eluded him, owing to a combination of factors, including wrong timing, bad strategy, impatience, miscalculation, inconsistency, zoning and diminishing public affection for his brand. This has cast doubt on his pedigree as a learner at the feet of the great Tafida Katsina, General Shehu Yar’Adua, founder of Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM).

    Yet, Atiku can only be ignored to the peril of his opponents in contemporary Nigerian politics. The former vice president came second in the 2023 elections with over seven million votes. He is undaunted and fired by courage. But his platform is now somehow defective, less formidable and fast regressing into a status of mere social club of old Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) comrades.

    His exit from PDP, which he co-founded in 1998/99, to the little known African Democratic Congress (ADC), which affirmed the split in the PDP, was a turning point in his political career.  No governor defected along with him; not even the governor of his native Adamawa State, Ahmadu Fintiri.

    ADC is not waxing stronger, despite the bravado and boastings by the gerontocrats around Atiku, who have lost effective mobilisation prowess in their states. It is not breaking new grounds; it is not making in-roads into the South, Northwest and North-Central.

    Also, the proposed coalition has not seen the light of the day. There is deep-seated friction among the coalition partners neck-deep in discussions on the platform of fragile parties.

    Why the coalition is troubled is that those around the former VP convey the impression that there is a predetermined agenda to make Atiku its presidential candidate. 

    The activities of the party are not held at its secretariat. ADC holds court in the Atiku campaign office in Abuja.

    Zoning is not an issue, and whether there should be power rotation between the North and South is not the concern of those now taking refuge in ADC. If the presidential bid of Atiku collapses, the party goes with it.

    In short, the coalition or alliance isn’t gathering traction because there was no agreement on its leadership structure, philosophy, focus, and candidate. Its goal of removing Tinubu as president is restrictive. There is even quarrel among Southwest, Southeast and South-South members about the choice of presidential running mate ahead of the convention.

    Where is the coalition curator, Nasir El-Rufai, in all these coalition drive? How effective is regional bullying? Who are the new faces being attracted into the so-called movement? Why are governors, ex-governors and National Assembly members shunning the platform and gravitating to APC?

    Former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, who has been part of the coalition talks, has finally joined ADC. Not all the chieftains of the crisis-ridden Labour Party (LP) defected along with him. Governor Alex Otti said he preferred to broker peace in the party instead of jumping ship.

    Details of the agreement that motivated him to join the party are unknown. For now, the only implication of his defection is that the 2027 contest may be a three-horse race involving majorly President Tinubu of the ruling APC, and the candidates of PDP and ADC.

    Read Also: 2026: Achudume calls for integrity, accountability

    Peter Obi

    Peter Obi, symbol of the ‘Obedient Movement,’ is intensifying consultations on his presidential ambition, which collapsed in 2023, despite his over six million votes.

    Factors that aided him then were ethnicity and religion, which were exploited to devastating effects. A serial defector, Obi would have defected to the ADC before now, but the potential offer of running mate to Atiku was not encouraging to his group, which hibernated in the crisis-ridden LP. It is confounding that a politician who cannot resolve the LP logjam and unite the Julius Abure and Nenadi-Usman factions is vying for president of the most populous and heterogeneous country in Africa.

    Unless Atiku declines to contest, which is a remote possibility, Obi’s best bet is LP, despite the polarisation and diminishing appeal of a third force. But his ditching the platform for ADC suggests that he no longer sees it as a viable vehicle to actualise his ambition.

    If Atiku contests, it may seal Obi’s chances of getting the ticket. There are strong suggestions that he may have settled for the lesser option of running as Atiku’s number two. That prospect is likely to polarise his base. Already, the likes of Professor Pat Utomi have vowed to withdraw support if the former Anambra governor accepts the undercard option.

    Obi is a critic without facts, a champion of geographical expression, a beneficiary of politico-religious manipulation and an inconsistent contestant – always eager to lean on a borrowed platform, but lacking the leadership skills required for party nurturing, crisis-resolution, reconciliation, cohesion and harmony.

    Still, he remains visible by the grace of his internet warriors who may not be able to convert propaganda to votes. How he will upstage Atiku in ADC is left to be seen.

    Rabiu Kwankwaso

    A lone ranger, the eminent politician remains an idol in Kano, where his party, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), holds sway.

    But recently his Kwakwanshiya group has been decimated. APC leaders, including Deputy Senate President Jibrin Barau and former national chairman Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, are working hard to pull the rug from off his feet. Some observers, however, don’t believe that this onslaught heralds Kwakwanso’s displacement as a factor in Kano.

    Also, the lone NNPP governor of Kano, Abba Yusuf, has opened talks with the APC on possible defection. Throughout the last week events leading to his decamping have been building up. Matters came to a head with a Kano State High Court court affirming the suspension of Kwankwaso ally, Hashimu Suleiman-Dungurawa, as Kano NNPP state chairman.

    In his place Hon. Abdullahi Zubairu Abiya, favoured by those loyal to Governor Yusuf, was confirmed Acting State Chairman. In reaction the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party dissolved ward, Local Government and state executive committees across the state. All these underscore the cracks in the party.

    APC and ADC are making gestures to the NNPP leader for collaboration. So far, there has been no convincing response. But predictably, Kwankwaso will not be off the radar during the electioneering.

    The PDP factions

    The PDP is currently down. Its two factions, led by Tanimu Turaki (SAN) and Nyesom Wike/Sam Anyanwu, are in court waging a supremacy war. The gladiators in rival camps are flexing muscles.

    The main opposition party has been in turmoil since the 2022 presidential convention. Its leadership has been a subject of dispute. But with four loyal governors – Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa), Bala Mohammed (Bauchi), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara) and Seyi Makinde (Oyo), PDP is still stronger than the Alliance for Democracy (AD) of old which went with the wind of the Afenifere crisis. Makinde is said to be eyeing its presidential ticket.

    The outcome of the litigation over the party leadership will show the way forward for the PDP ahead of the electioneering. The prospects don’t look good. The Bala Mohammed-Makinde wing of party defied two clear judgments to hold its Ibadan convention which threw up the disputed Turaki leadership.

    That legal roadblock recently forced the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to expressly state it doesn’t recognise the outcome of the convention held in the Oyo State capital.

    Those legal woes are also blamed for the mass defection of the party’s governors to APC in recent times out of fear that they may not have a platform to prosecute their re-election.

    Most observers argue that unless calmer heads within the party are able to unite all stakeholders around the caretaker leadership proposal, PDP would still be in legal coma when voters go to the polls in March next year.

    Nyesom Wike and the Rivers factors

    Love him or hate him, the Federal Capital Territory Minister, Nyesom Wike, has become a political factor no one can ignore. His bitter fight with Atiku over the 2023 PDP presidential ticket snowballed into the mutually assured destruction that has brought the main opposition party to its knees. While the former fled to a platform where his word would be law, Wike remains in PDP fighting a rearguard battle for control.

    Having fallen out with the Atiku wing of the party, the former Rivers State governor’s embrace of Tinubu’s presidential was a masterstroke that delivered his state’s strategic votes to APC. Ever since, the incumbent president has held him close – no doubt aware of his political value.

    This year would see the political collaboration between the two men continue despite the differences Wike has with his erstwhile godson, Governor Siminalayi Fubara.

    The minister is currently executing an interesting political manoeuvre that sees him exercising influence in Rivers APC and PDP. He openly declared last month that the structures of the two parties had coalesced into one to further the reelection bid of President Tinubu.

    It’s a different matter entirely when it comes to Fubara’s second term ambition. Despite the governor’s defection to the APC, many observers say a scenario similar to that which played out in Lagos State, where former Governor Akinwumi Ambode was denied a return ticket, could play out in Rivers. In fact, the peace deal which Fubara signed to secure calm in his domain may well be the noose currently hanging around his neck.

    But more than anything, his relationship with Wike is clearly irretrievably broken. So, in the coming months, expect more war songs and jibes like ‘Dey your dey, make I dey my dey,’ ‘As e dey pain dem, e dey sweet us’, followed by the most comic of dance steps. Rivers State politics is set to serve up the most entertaining drama in the run up to 2027.

    INEC, by-elections and reforms

    The Chairman of INEC, Prof. Ojo Amupitan (SAN), would have an opportunity to prove his mettle as an umpire.

    He has two senatorial by-elections to conduct in Ondo South, where Senator Jimoh Ibrahim is vacating his seat to take up an ambassadorial appointment, and Delta North, where a vacancy now exists, following the death of  Senator Peter Nwaoboshi.

    Then, Ekiti and Osun governorship polls will follow. What Nigerians expect from Amupitan is the sustenance of the reforms initiated by his precedessor, Prof. Yakubu Mahmood, in his bid to foster transparency and accountability. The greatest expectation is the electronic uploading, display and transmission of results.

    INEC will be rightly guided by the 1999 Constitution (as amended) and the Electoral Act.

    Currently, 18 political parties are on its register. In September last year, 14 associations that applied for registration were shortlisted for vetting. The commission would have to take a final decision on their qualification for registration.

    A source said some prominent northerners are behind one of the associations. They look forward to the registration which will provide an opportunity for a platform outside PDP, ADC, NNPP and LP to challenge the ruling APC in 2027.

    INEC will commence the implementation of the electioneering schedule through its observation of the party congresses and convention. APC is likely to hold its national convention in March.

    Ekiti election

    Ekiti is warming up for an off-season governorship election. The candidate to beat is Governor Biodun Oyebanji of APC, who is seeking re-election. The poll would be a referendum on his performance as governor. While Oyebanji would be highlighting his achievements during the campaigns, other flagbearers – Ambassador Dare Bejide of ADC and Dr. Wole Oluyede of PDP – would be soliciting for votes based on their campaign promises.

    Oluyede’s prospects are, however, uncerstain given that his name was missing from the provisional list of candidates released by INEC. It was a fallout of the PDP leadership crisis. INEC has refused to recognise the two factions locked in supremacy battle.

    There are 16 local governments in Ekiti. They are run by APC chieftains. The members of the House of Assembly and Representatives, and three senators also belong to the ruling party.

    Apart from the four predecessors – Niyi Adebayo, Ayo Fayose, Segun Oni and Kayode Fayemi – who are rooting for Oyebanji, many prominent indigenes, traditional rulers, religious leaders, women and youth groups have endorsed him for a second term.

    But there are also those against him in the party over the outcome of the primary that produced him as standard bearer. These are the supporters of Kayode Ojo, an engineer from Ikoro-Ekiti and University of Nigeria, Nsukka (UNN) Pro-chancellor, who are not happy about his disqualification, based on party guidelines.

    Without them, Oyebanji will win. But the onus is on the party leadership to reconcile the aggrieved elements with the fold. However, no election can be a walk over. Over-confidence should be avoided. The ruling party cannot afford to sleep on guard.

    Certain elements in Ekiti are peddling falsehood about zoning. This is not a factor in the state. The state was divided into three senatorial districts for political expediency. From the days of Pelupelu, Ekiti has been one indivisible zone.

    Osun poll

    This exercise will generate excitment in the Southwest and beyond. Three candidates – Dancing Governor Ademola Adeleke of Accord Party (AP), Bola Oyebamiji of APC and Najeem Salam of ADC will clash during in a titanic battle for the soul of the State of Living Springs.

    The three of them once belonged to APC. Adeleke, son of Senator Ayoola Adeleke, is younger brother of the grassroots politician, Senator Isiaka Serubawon Adeleke. He succeeded him in the Senate after his demise.

    Oyebamiji was a commissioner under former Governor Gboyega Oyetola when Salam was Speaker of the House of Assembly.

    Zoning is a settled matter. The trio are from Osun West Senatorial District to which the tickets were unofficially zoned. Their running mates, who would be announced soon, would come from either Osun Central or Ife/Ijesa axis.

    Adeleke, a populist governor and entertainer, was running from pillar to post after his original party, PDP, ran into trouble. Although a loyal party member, he had to defect to Accord to avoid uncertainties. The elite of Osun believe that his performing is not impressive. But he is popular among the masses who love his unconventional ways.

    Adeleke will lean on the wealth of his illustrious family and the support of the distressed PDP chapter during the poll. The three PDP senators have vowed to support the President’s second term ambition. They are likely to extend the same gesture to the APC governorship candidate.

    The governor has promised to mobilise for President Tinubu’s re-election. But the president’s party is at loggerheads with him. He faces a dilemma.

    The most experienced and prepared candidate is Oyebamiji, former Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), Lokoja. The people of Osun take him serious because he has no baggage. He is competent, resourceful and highly knowledgeable about state finance and financial engineering. However, there is need for deeper reconciliation to halt post-primary crisis arising from the consensus option. While real opponents pose threats, internal opposition can undermine strategies for victory.

    ADC is seriously mobilising in Osun. The mobilisation has kept the national secretary, Chief Rauf Aregbesola, busy. But, there is a crack in the chapter. The supporters of Moshood Adeoti were dazed that the leader could dump the deputy leader for the former Speaker.

    Analysts have predicted a stiff contest in Osun as former colleagues in the same party clash because of political differences.

    All in all, 2026 promises to be an exciting year where some individuals would rise politically and others would consolidate their positions. But it could also presage the retirement of some old warhorses who have dominated the power space in the last three to four decades.  

  • National Security: Prospects and challenges

    National Security: Prospects and challenges

    As Nigeria moves toward 2026, its national security environment is under sustained pressure from multiple, overlapping threats. Terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, separatist violence and election-related risks now cut across regions, stretching the capacity of the state and testing the resilience of its security institutions.
    The challenge is no longer defined solely by firepower. Criminal and extremist networks increasingly overlap, forests and cyberspace have become active security frontiers, and public expectations for both safety and accountability continue to rise. In response, Nigeria’s security strategy is being forced to evolve toward intelligence-led operations, deeper inter-agency coordination and preventive action.
    Against this backdrop, 2026 emerges as a critical test for the country’s security architecture, the military, intelligence services and the police, whose collective performance will shape national stability in the lead-up to the 2027 general elections. NICHOLAS KALU, MUSA UMAR BOLOGI AND GBENGA OMOKHUNU report:

    DSS under Ajayi — Quiet reforms, hard choices and the 2026 test

    As Nigeria confronts one of its most complex internal security environments in more than a decade, the Department of State Services (DSS) has operated largely outside public glare, yet remains central to whether the country stabilises or slips deeper into cycles of violence. Under its current Director-General, Mr. Oluwatosin Adeola Ajayi, the Service has embarked on a cautious but notable recalibration, one that prioritises intelligence discipline, inter-agency synergy and institutional restraint.

    With 2026 approaching as a politically sensitive and security-heavy year, the DSS stands at a defining moment: to consolidate recent gains or be overwhelmed by rising expectations.

    Ajayi assumed office in August 2024, at a time when confidence in Nigeria’s intelligence architecture had been shaken. His emergence marked a deliberate shift away from confrontation-driven internal security management toward a more methodical intelligence-first posture.

    One of the earliest indicators of this shift was the DSS’s compliance with court orders on prolonged detentions. In 2025, the Service quietly released several individuals previously held without trial and paid court-mandated compensations in cases of unlawful detention. These actions, acknowledged by senior legal stakeholders, helped to de-escalate long-running tensions between the DSS, the judiciary and civil society.

    Though not dramatic in operational terms, these steps restored a measure of institutional credibility and reduced legal distractions that had historically drained the Service’s focus.

    Operational achievements beneath the surface

    Operationally, the DSS under Ajayi has focused less on publicity and more on intelligence coordination. This approach became evident in high-value counter-terrorism outcomes recorded in 2025, particularly the arrest of senior Ansaru terrorist leaders Abu Baraa and Mahmuda, figures linked to the Kuje correctional facility attack and multiple high-profile abductions in the North-West and North-Central regions.

    According to the Office of the National Security Adviser, the arrests followed months of layered intelligence work involving surveillance, human intelligence and technical tracking, signalling a maturation of intelligence fusion involving the DSS, military intelligence and other agencies.

    A key policy turning point came late in 2025 when President Bola Tinubu directed the DSS to deploy trained forest guards nationwide, tasking them with flushing out terrorists and bandits exploiting Nigeria’s vast forest corridors.

    The directive placed the DSS at the centre of a new territorial intelligence strategy, one that recognises forests not just as military theatres but as intelligence ecosystems requiring sustained presence, local sources and long-term monitoring. For Ajayi, the challenge has been translating training into operational effectiveness without over-militarising intelligence roles.

    Challenges moving into 2026

    The DSS faces formidable challenges in 2026 which include expanding threat geography, with terrorism, banditry and separatist violence no longer confined to predictable regions, intelligence saturation, as multiple threats compete for limited analytical and operational resources, election-related risks, with the 2027 general elections approaching, heightening the risk of politically motivated violence, sabotage and foreign interference, and public expectation gaps, as Nigerians increasingly demand visible security outcomes from institutions designed to operate invisibly

    Looking ahead, several trends are likely to define the DSS under Ajayi in 2026:

    Intelligence before force

    The DSS is expected to deepen its emphasis on preventive intelligence, prioritising disruption of plots before they manifest into attacks. This includes tighter monitoring of extremist financing, online radicalisation and cross-border movements.

    Technology-driven intelligence

    With increased budgetary allocation to the security sector, the DSS is projected to expand investments in signals intelligence, cyber-monitoring and data analytics, enhancing early-warning capacity.

    Deeper inter-agency fusion

    Successful joint operations in 2025 are likely to encourage more structured intelligence-sharing platforms between the DSS, the military, the Police and ONSA, reducing duplication and rivalry.

    Election security role

    Without direct visibility, the DSS will play a critical background role in election security, identifying flashpoints, monitoring political violence triggers and advising preventive deployments.

    Rights-sensitive operations

    Ajayi’s early corrective steps suggest the Service will continue balancing security enforcement with legal compliance, aware that legitimacy strengthens intelligence cooperation at community levels.

    Conclusion

    Under Oluwatosin Adeola Ajayi, the DSS has begun a careful transformation, away from institutional defensiveness toward disciplined intelligence leadership. While the Service remains constrained by secrecy and structural limits, its recent achievements in counter-terrorism coordination, legal compliance and strategic restraint suggest a more mature internal security posture.

    In 2026, the DSS will be judged not by visibility, but by absence, the attacks that do not happen, the crises quietly defused, and the intelligence failures avoided. Whether Ajayi’s reforms endure under mounting pressure will determine the Service’s true contribution to Nigeria’s national security in the year ahead.

    From insurgency to banditry: Nigeria’s Armed Forces stretched across multiple fronts

    Nigeria’s security landscape became increasingly tense towards the end of 2025, as the armed forces found themselves severely overstretched, waging simultaneous battles against a resurgence of terrorism and criminal violence. The military has continued to confront Boko Haram and its splinter groups—the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Jamā’at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da’wah wa’l-Jihād (JAS)—in the North East, alongside persistent banditry and kidnappings in the North West, violent herder attacks across the North Central region, and secessionist agitation in the South East.

    The intensity of the threats spread to North Central states such as Kwara, which had hitherto been largely spared since the escalation of insecurity following the emergence of Boko Haram in the North East in 2009; by the tail end of the year, the deteriorating situation was underscored by the abduction and killing of several people, kidnapping of more than 400 students/pupils, teachers, and other citizens in November alone.

    Read Also: Lagos security model standard for sub-national security architecture — APC

    At least 230 schoolchildren and 12 teachers were abducted from a Catholic boarding school in Niger State, 24 girls from Government Girls’ Comprehensive Secondary School (GGCSS) in Maga, Kebbi State, 34 worshippers from a church in Kwara State, a bride, bridesmaids and several others in Chacho village, Wurno Local Government Area of Sokoto State.

    In addition, several innocent civilians were killed by terrorists, bandits, and kidnappers across the North-East, North-West, and North-Central regions. The deteriorating situation became so precarious that President Bola Tinubu was compelled to declare a state of emergency on security. By this declaration, the President directed the Police, Department of State Service (DSS), and the Nigerian Army to recruit more personnel to boost their manpower. He also directed the DSS  to immediately deploy all the forest guards already trained “to flush out the terrorists and bandits lurking in our forests”, declaring that “there will be no more hiding places for agents of evil.”

    The President’s directive put the Armed Forces on high alert, prompting a reorganisation of the command structure through the appointment of new operational commanders and the intensification of operations to crush terrorists and kidnappers, while ensuring the release of abducted victims, including all the 230 schoolchildren and 12 teachers were abducted from a Catholic boarding school in Niger State, 24 girls from Government Girls’ Comprehensive Secondary School (GGCSS) in Maga, Kebbi State, and 34 worshippers from a church in Kwara State.

    Economic hope, insecurity fears

    At a time when the Tinubu administration was recording economic stability in early 2025, insecurity was on the rise. According to the Nigeria Development Update (NDU) released by the World Bank in October 2025, Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.9 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, up from 3.5 per cent in the same period of 2024. However, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) reported that the humanitarian situation in North-East Nigeria continued to deteriorate in April 2025 due to escalating conflict and rising insecurity.

    Military responses

    Despite the setbacks, the Nigerian military also recorded successes against armed groups across the theaters of operations.

    In October, the Defence Headquarters stated that in September 2025, troops rescued 180 kidnapped civilians, arrested 450 terrorists/bandits and killed scores of terrorists, bandits and other criminal elements. It also said that 39 terrorists surrendered to the troops, while 63 assorted arms, 4,475 ammunition and 294 explosive items such as grenades and IED marking materials were recovered.

    The Nigerian military has also confirmed that several terrorists were killed by Nigerian Air Force fighter aircraft along the Triangle, Triangle in Borno and Yobe states.

    In the South East, the military confirmed the killing of IPOB/ESN commanders, including Ifeanyi Okorienta, also known as Gentle de Yahoo, who had terrorised the region for years.

    And just recently, the United States, with the approval of the Nigerian government, launched  “powerful and deadly” strikes against groups affiliated with ISIL (ISIS), in the North West.

    Towards a more secured 2026

     President Bola Tinubu has promised a more secure country in 2026. This followed his presentation of the 2026 budget to the National Assembly, where he earmarked a massive N5.41 trillion to the defence, and security sector.

    The money would be spent, according to him, to increase the fighting capacity of the armed forces and other security agencies through improved personnel strength and the acquisition of advanced platforms and hardware.

    Short of men, stretched by Crime: Nigeria Police seek reset in 2026

    In 2026, Egbetokun’s leadership of the Nigeria Police Force will continue to face significant challenges related to funding, managing complex security threats, and institutional reforms; simultaneously, key prospects lie in leveraging community policing strategies, modernization efforts, and enhanced regional cooperation.

    The police this year (2026) face significant challenges in national security, including evolving cyber threats, organized crime fueled by drug and arms trafficking, and strained resources and public trust. Equally, crucial prospects lie in leveraging new technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data analytics, enhancing inter-agency and international cooperation, and strengthening community policing initiatives to improve intelligence gathering and public relations.

    The force will contend with a rise in sophisticated, technology-driven crimes, including AI-driven cyberattacks, deepfakes used for disinformation and fraud, and the increasing convergence of illicit drugs and small arms trafficking fueling organized crime and extremism.

    Findings revealed that the police face a “brain drain” of experienced officers through retirement and attrition, and the struggle to recruit new personnel amid a challenging social climate.

    The development limits operational readiness and the ability to respond effectively to new demands of insecurity. This and many more issues has made President Bola Tinubu to order the recruitment of more personnel to tackle the insecurity challenges across the country, especially in the northern part.

    There’s a growing emphasis on creating specialized platforms for real-time, actionable threat intelligence sharing among different security agencies and international partners to combat transnational threats like cybercrime and terrorism.

    The focus on community policing and public engagement strategies is a major prospect for building trust, gathering local intelligence, and fostering a collaborative environment for problem-solving with citizens and partners.

    The crisis in recruitment and retention is forcing a shift toward a more holistic approach focusing on officer wellness, job satisfaction, and a reevaluation of traditional career paths to attract and retain talent. The evolving threat landscape highlights the need for specialized training in areas like cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, and human rights, which presents an opportunity to professionalize the force and improve its legitimacy and effectiveness.

    This year, national security efforts for the police will be defined by a shift toward data-driven policing and managing a persistent workforce crisis. While technological integration offers significant prospects for efficiency, it simultaneously creates new challenges in governance, public trust, and the complexity of modern crime.

    Departments are increasingly adopting unified platforms that break down “data silos,” allowing for seamless information sharing between body-worn cameras, license plate readers, and surveillance systems.

    Findings has also revealed that the use of autonomous units for hazardous tasks, such as bomb disposal or search-and-rescue, is projected to grow, with a global market for law enforcement robots potentially reaching over $4.3 billion by the early 2030s. Virtual and Augmented Reality will become standard for high-stakes training, such as de-escalation techniques and responding to mental health crises, providing a controlled environment for complex scenarios.

    The NPF would also face election pressure, due to the fact that 2026 is preceding the 2027 general elections, the police will be strained by demands to secure polling sites, manage protests, and remain politically neutral in increasingly polarized environments.

    Recall that the Police Service Commission (PSC), in collaboration with the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) have commenced the recruitment process of Fifty Thousand (50,000) Police Constables into the Nigeria Police Force, as directed by President Bola Tinubu.

    The Presidential directive is aimed at strengthening community policing, enhancing internal security and expanding the manpower base of the Nigeria Police Force. The recruitment portal for applications from eligible Nigerians has been opened.

    Egbetokun has also sought for proactive policing and collaboration with other security agencies (e.g., the military) and international partners (e.g., AFRIPOL) as well as joint efforts, such as the “G-7” initiative among states to combat cross-border crime.

    Also, the implementation of a revised training curriculum for recruits, covering topics like human rights, computer studies, and the Police Act 2020, aims to enhance professionalism and align with international best practices.

    The police boss recently mandated all commands to implement action plans aimed at a 50% reduction in crime rates which, if successful, will further reduce the pressure faced by the force.  

    The wild north-west is rising into a broad warzone. Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna and Sokoto are hit hardest by organized bandit gangs. Data gathered show that fatalities in this region exceeded 9,300 in 2023–25. Kidnappings reached 716 incidents. There were 290 incidents in 2024 alone.

    Rival criminal networks now openly terrorize villages: cattle rustling, mass shootings and child abductions are daily reality. In 2025 bandits even struck outside their old haunts – gunmen abducted 303 students in Niger State and 25 girls in Kebbi.

    A new group, Lakurwa, epitomizes the threat: it fuses Islamist extremism with outlaw tactics. These gangs hide in porous forests and demand record ransoms (one Delta family’s kidnappers asked ₦30 billion). The flashpoint is self-sustaining: villagers now pay “levies to NSAGs” (armed groups) just to farm.

    The result is a self-reinforcing insecurity cycle. In 2026, it is expected that these scenarios would be a thing of the past.

  • Ghost mansions, hidden loot: Nigeria’s real estate of stolen wealth

    Ghost mansions, hidden loot: Nigeria’s real estate of stolen wealth

    Every year, Nigeria—and Africa at large—loses tens of billions of dollars to illicit financial flows, money that could fund schools, hospitals, and power infrastructure. Instead, much of it—up to 80 per cent—finds its way into a single, largely unregulated sector: real estate. In elite districts like Maitama, Asokoro and Guzape, ghost high-rises and opulent estates stand as monuments to misappropriated public funds, driving up property prices and deepening inequality. In this special report, OKWY IROEGBU-CHIKEZIE examines how corruption and weak oversight have turned Nigeria’s real estate sector into a vault for illicit wealth, while efforts to reclaim and redirect these assets for national development struggle to keep pace

    Throughout much of Nigeria and across the African continent, real estate has become synonymous with the 21st century’s version of a Swiss bank account—a tangible, highly valued asset class often used to launder funds derived from corruption and other illicit activities. In high-brow areas such as Maitama, Asokoro, and Guzape, so-called “ghost high-rises” stand out due to their sheer size and striking architecture, many complete with manicured lawns and 24/7 security. Yet, these buildings remain virtually empty, with at least 80 per cent of windows unlit throughout the day. While the average worker faces rent hikes of up to 50 per cent, these properties serve less as residential housing and more as physical “savings accounts” for Nigeria’s elite, a way for political leaders to convert stolen wealth into cement and steel, shielding it from the volatility of the naira.

    A notable example involves former Minister of Petroleum Resources, Diezani Alison-Madueke. In January 2025, the United States and Nigeria confirmed the repatriation of $52.88 million following a civil asset forfeiture case. Under the agreement, $50 million of the repatriated funds would be channeled through the World Bank to partly fund the Rural Electrification Project, improving the reliability and availability of renewable energy in Nigeria. The remaining $2.88 million would be granted to the International Institute for Justice (IIJ) to support its Rule of Law and Counter-Terrorism Project, which provides capacity building for criminal justice practitioners across East, West, and North Africa.

    Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), emphasised that mechanisms had been put in place to ensure transparency and accountability, with periodic reporting to both Nigeria and the United States. The funds repatriated included the liquidated value of a $50 million luxury condo in New York and the $80 million yacht Galactica Star. Domestically, the EFCC secured the forfeiture of a $37.5 million fifteen-story building in Banana Island, Lagos, Bella Vista, comprising 18 flats and six penthouses. Investigators discovered the property was acquired through the shell company Rusimpex Limited, effectively parking tens of millions of dollars in a single real estate transaction while millions of Nigerians struggled to secure housing.

    The case of former Delta State Governor James Ibori illustrates the international dimension of real estate money laundering. Ibori pled guilty in the UK to money laundering and fraud, maintaining a real estate portfolio that included six luxury properties in London, as well as holdings in Washington, D.C., Houston, Texas, and Johannesburg, South Africa. Despite earning around $25,000 as governor, he was pursuing a $20 million private jet at the time of his arrest in the UAE. In October 2023, a UK court ordered Ibori to repay over £100 million within 18 months or face an additional eight-year prison term. This case highlights how money initially intended for regional development in Nigeria was diverted into high-value, non-productive assets abroad.

    In 2024, the EFCC secured one of Nigeria’s largest asset recoveries in Abuja—a 753-unit duplex/apartment complex acquired with corrupt proceeds by a former senior government official. Located in Abuja’s most prestigious neighborhoods, these properties, like many others seized, were rarely occupied, and never served public housing needs. Alongside this, the EFCC and ICPC recovered more than N277 billion and $105 million in 2024, much of it in tangible real estate assets. Similarly, former Chief of Air Staff Alex Badeh forfeited $1 million alongside multiple properties in prime Abuja locations.

    Even when recovered, these assets often remain underutilised, perpetuating a “warehousing” effect that continues to hinder economic progress. For example, former Inspector General of Police Tafa Balogun was ordered to forfeit N13 billion in assets, including several plazas and residential buildings in commercial districts of Abuja. Subsequent investigations revealed that some of these properties, such as Yashua and Shakir Plazas, were sold at prices far below market value through opaque auctions to unregistered companies. This underscores a troubling secondary issue: without a transparent disposal process, recovered real estate can be reabsorbed by elites rather than being repurposed to address the housing needs of the less privileged.

    These cases collectively demonstrate how real estate in Nigeria has become both a repository for illicit wealth and a barrier to social equity. While high-end properties in areas like Maitama, Asokoro, Guzape, and Banana Island symbolise status and financial security for the elite, they starkly contrast with the housing scarcity and rising rents experienced by ordinary Nigerians. The misuse of real estate as a tool for laundering corrupt wealth, coupled with inadequate transparency in asset recovery and disposal, continues to exacerbate inequality and limits the broader economic benefits that these assets could provide.

    The ongoing efforts by the EFCC, ICPC, and international partners to repatriate and redistribute corruptly acquired funds signal progress, but the challenge remains significant. The physical and financial concentration of wealth in unproductive real estate continues to impact both housing affordability and national economic development. Comprehensive reforms, including transparent asset disposal mechanisms and reinvestment strategies targeting public benefit, are critical to ensuring that recovered wealth translates into tangible improvements in the lives of Nigerians.

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    ICPC has repeatedly warned that high-end property development in Nigeria often functions as a front for illicit financial flows. In public testimonies, the commission has highlighted how corrupt public officials acquire sprawling estates under false names to conceal the illegal origins of their wealth. This practice is facilitated by weak property title documentation, lack of enforcement of beneficial ownership standards, and gaps in regulatory oversight. The ICPC has even launched investigations into the proliferation of “unoccupied estates” in cities like Abuja, Lagos, and Port Harcourt. These properties, largely empty, are rarely intended to house residents; instead, they serve as secure repositories for stolen wealth.

    The scale of the problem is stark. In one enforcement action, the commission recovered 241 houses from a single public official. Another investigation involved 60 buildings situated on a single large plot of land. In a separate case, the ICPC secured the forfeiture of N2.4 billion and several properties linked to former PPMC chief Haruna Momoh. Investigations revealed that Momoh’s wife operated accounts holding millions in both local and foreign currencies, which were then used to acquire luxury duplexes in Abuja’s upscale Olympia Estate. These cases reflect a broader pattern: the use of real estate as a vehicle to convert illicit cash into durable, high-value physical assets.

    This phenomenon is not confined to Nigeria. Organised crime groups across Europe have employed similar strategies, purchasing luxury villas in locations such as Spain’s Costa del Sol. By paying part of the property price in cash derived from illicit sources, these actors convert liquid illicit funds into tangible assets that appreciate over time while avoiding the digital trail inherent in conventional banking systems.

    Within Nigeria, the construction sector often acts as the “layering” phase of money laundering. Corrupt officials frequently control construction firms that secure government contracts, inflating bills for labor and materials. The excess funds are then redirected into lavish private estates, functioning as slush funds. For instance, the ICPC recently confiscated 12 properties from construction firm director Ochuko Momoh, including luxurious mansions in Maitama and unfinished estates in Katampe. The commission noted that the assets were grossly disproportionate to her reported earnings, suggesting that the construction company served primarily as a vehicle for laundering public funds.

    The United Kingdom has witnessed similar practices. Former Delta State Governor Ibori employed a complex network of shell companies and professional facilitators in London to manage a construction and property portfolio funded by embezzled state funds. Money pilfered from the Delta State treasury was funneled through multiple accounts, making it appear as legitimate business income. This method relies on a sophisticated system involving anonymous shell companies, off-the-record cash transactions, and the strategic use of construction projects to artificially inflate costs. Even as transparency laws are being strengthened in Nigeria, the battle between regulators and politically connected elites remains fierce. Cash remains the preferred vehicle for the initial stages of laundering, often channeled into real estate through Bureau De Change operators or other intermediaries.

    The effects of this practice on the broader housing market are significant. When a corrupt official acquires multiple luxury units through a shell company, they are willing to overpay to move large sums of cash quickly. This inflates land prices and construction costs throughout the city. Developers, noticing the lucrative returns from high-end projects, often shift focus away from affordable housing and toward properties designed to store illicit capital. These empty buildings—sometimes called “warehouses for cash”—are rarely intended for tenants. Keeping them vacant allows owners to avoid the obligations and scrutiny that come with rental management. Even with the government’s planned rollout of the “Persons with Significant Control” (PSC) register in late 2025, wealthy individuals continue to use proxies or “straw men” to hide multi-billion-naira assets.

    The laundering of African slush funds extends far beyond Nigeria. Investigative reports, including Transparency International and the Center for Advanced Defence Studies (C4ADS), have traced billions meant for public infrastructure and healthcare into luxury real estate markets across the globe. Dubai, London, and South Africa have emerged as key destinations for this wealth. C4ADS’s report “Sandcastles” revealed that at least 800 properties in Dubai are directly linked to Nigerian politically exposed persons (PEPs), their families, or proxies. Dubai’s luxury real estate market, with its tolerance for cash transactions and high levels of ownership anonymity, has effectively become a “physical bank” for Africa’s elite. While local populations face acute housing shortages, these officials acquire properties they seldom occupy, using them to safeguard illicit wealth against scrutiny and currency fluctuations.

    London has long been a repository for African slush funds. According to the “Pandora Papers,” at least 230 UK properties, collectively valued at £350 million, were purchased secretly through corporate entities registered in the British Virgin Islands and Seychelles. Similarly, the United States has seized luxury properties purchased with illicit African funds. Former Nigerian governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, for example, used stolen oil revenues to acquire a home in Rockville, Maryland, alongside multiple properties in London. More recently, the US Department of Justice sold luxury New York condos linked to former Petroleum Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke for $50 million. These seizures demonstrate that even the most carefully constructed “cash warehouses” can be dismantled through coordinated international action, although for every seized property, hundreds remain hidden behind complex webs of shell companies.

    Analysts have identified a clear pattern in real estate money laundering: placement, layering, and integration. Placement begins with the injection of cash or Bureau De Change funds into land purchases or large construction projects. Layering involves transferring property titles through shell companies and proxies to obscure the true source of funds. Integration occurs when the property is sold years later, or when rental income—now “clean”—enters the economy. This cycle distorts housing markets, as overpaid land drives up costs and reduces availability for genuine low- and middle-income buyers. In effect, properties are constructed not for habitation but as instruments to store wealth, exacerbating Nigeria’s housing crisis.

    The consequences of this systemic practice are profound. While the political elite amass luxury assets both locally and abroad, ordinary Nigerians face skyrocketing rents and limited housing options. Corrupt real estate practices divert resources from public infrastructure, education, and healthcare into private wealth accumulation. Even recovered assets, such as confiscated apartments and luxury estates, often remain underutilized or are sold through opaque processes, sometimes returning to elite hands instead of being redeployed for social benefit. This “warehousing” of wealth underscores the urgent need for enhanced enforcement, robust transparency laws, and global collaboration to ensure that ill-gotten real estate is not merely recycled among the wealthy but contributes to equitable national development.

    Industry responses to corruption and money laundering in real estate

    Recent recoveries by the EFCC have amplified concerns about the use of luxury real estate as a vehicle for illicit wealth. Over the years, high-end properties have been linked to politically exposed individuals and senior civil servants, many of whom allegedly use real estate to shield ill-gotten gains. In response, estate management professionals are calling for stronger institutional frameworks and regulatory oversight to prevent abuse in the sector.

    Addressing the issue, Otunba Sola Enitan, Estate Surveyor and Valuer, and Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Society for Professional Valuation (SPV), emphasised that corruption and money laundering pose significant threats to economic growth. “For any country to thrive economically, we must tackle corruption and money laundering head-on,” Enitan stated. “The impact of laundering proceeds through real estate, without proper oversight, is staggering.” He underscored the need for enhanced management standards, aligned with international best practices, alongside stronger legislative protections governing financial transactions.

    Enitan advocated that public officials be required to declare assets both before assuming office and after leaving, with independent verification by the ICPC. “Public officials must declare their assets at the start and end of their terms, and these declarations should be publicly accessible,” he said. He further called for thorough pre- and post-construction development appraisals to prevent over-invoicing and under-invoicing, practices commonly used to launder money. Procurement officers in both the public and private sectors, he noted, should be held accountable through professional certification and adherence to strict ethical standards.

    The SPV chairman also recommended the establishment of a national online land registry, collaboratively managed by the EFCC and the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), as a tool to increase transparency and accountability in the real estate sector. On the matter of asset declaration, he urged the Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB) to be more proactive in ensuring compliance by politically exposed persons and civil servants, emphasizing that only qualified Estate Surveyors and Valuers are professionally and legally equipped to handle asset declaration and valuation.

    Regarding vacant luxury properties, Enitan suggested heavy taxation of unoccupied units. “Because the funds used to procure many of these properties are proceeds of crime, owners often let them lie idle,” he said. “Government should impose substantial taxes on such properties to raise revenue and discourage misuse of wealth.” He warned that unchecked corruption could destabilise the financial sector, create market distortions, and discourage genuine investment in real estate.

    Isaac Fabuiyi, another Estate Surveyor and Valuer, highlighted the legal obligations of practitioners under anti-money laundering regulations. Professionals are required to register with the Special Control Unit against Money Laundering (SCUML) for transactions exceeding legally approved thresholds. “The EFCC law mandates reporting of any transaction above a certain limit,” Fabuiyi explained, adding that non-disclosure by clients remains a major challenge. “While it’s not our direct responsibility to report clients, we must take precautions to prevent illicit funds from entering the system through our services.”

    Government officials have also acknowledged the urgent need for reform. Barakat Odunuga-Bakare, Special Adviser to the Lagos State Governor on Housing, stressed the pivotal role of government in modernising real estate laws and regulations. Speaking at the inaugural conference of Female Lawyers in Real Estate Practice (FELIREP), themed “The Missing Gap: Absence of Revised Laws, Rules, Regulations, Policies, and Effective Monitoring on Emerging Trends in the Nigerian Real Estate Market,” she warned that outdated legislation could undermine transparency and sustainability.

    “Lagos is a rapidly growing commercial hub, and the real estate market remains a vibrant force in the national economy, attracting investors seeking diversification and steady returns,” Odunuga-Bakare noted. “To ensure continued growth, it is imperative to actively review and update real estate laws, rules, regulations, and policies, while establishing effective monitoring mechanisms.” She highlighted the role of the Lagos State Real Estate Regulatory Authority (LASRERA) in registering practitioners and enforcing compliance, noting that technological innovations such as the E-GIS digital system and the state’s land administration portal have strengthened accountability.

    The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) commemorates International Anti-Corruption Day every December 9, encouraging global leaders to participate in combating corruption. The EFCC similarly marks the day as part of ongoing efforts to raise awareness, emphasising that public cooperation is essential to support investigations and enforcement. During a panel session on industry roles in regulating the market and addressing legal barriers in real estate development, Edward Akinlade, Group Managing Director of SURU Homes, drew comparisons between approval processes in Nigeria and the United Kingdom. He noted that project approvals in Nigeria are often slower and less efficient, creating opportunities for corruption. Akinlade advised industry participants to rely on professional services to reduce malpractice and enhance accountability.

    Panelists agreed on the urgent need for legislative reforms to foster sustainable development, enhance market credibility, and align Nigeria’s real estate sector with global best practices. Collectively, these measures—from stricter asset declarations and pre-construction appraisals to technological innovations and robust anti-money laundering compliance—are seen as essential to protecting the integrity of the sector, ensuring fair market operations, and preventing the real estate market from becoming a haven for illicit wealth.

    Security votes turned Governors’ slush funds

    The EFCC Chairman, Ola Olukoyede, has raised serious allegations against certain state governors, claiming they are siphoning billions of naira from monthly security votes. Speaking at the annual lecture organised by the Honorary Members’ Forum of the Nigerian Air Force Officers’ Mess at Sam Ethnan Air Force Base in Ikeja, Lagos, Olukoyede stressed that corruption is the “real elephant in the room” fuelling Nigeria’s rising insecurity.

    He revealed that stolen funds intended for security and poverty alleviation are often diverted into foreign currency accounts or fake investments, rather than being used to strengthen security infrastructure. Referencing the ongoing case against Willie Obiano, former governor of Anambra State, Olukoyede disclosed that the EFCC discovered over N4 billion in misappropriated security votes. “State governors collect billions each month as security votes without accountability,” he said. “Instead of investing in security systems, these resources are often converted into foreign currency and sent abroad. Had these funds been used properly, the security situation in Anambra and neighbouring states would be far better.”

    Olukoyede also criticised issues with military procurement, highlighting the notorious $2.1 billion arms scandal, and noted how flawed economic models perpetuate poverty, particularly in northern Nigeria. He cited other cases, including a former accountant-general accused of stealing over N109 billion and stalled power projects plagued by bribery allegations. On the EFCC’s achievements, he noted that the agency recovered N566.3 billion between 2024 and 2025, including a record seizure of 753 properties, contributing to economic stability by curbing illicit financial flows.

    Experts warn that the influx of such “slush funds” into property development is also driving up housing costs. Dr. Bennett Muhammad Doro, member of the governing council of the Institute of Mortgage Brokers and Lenders of Nigeria (IMBLN), told Channels TV that money laundering through real estate makes it nearly impossible for the average worker to access affordable housing. “Competition fuelled by illicit funds inflates property prices,” he said. Doro highlighted ongoing IMBLN efforts to professionalize and clean up the sector, collaborating with the EFCC and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) to prevent property being used to hide stolen public funds or finance terrorism. “Cleaning up the industry is not just a legal obligation but a human rights issue,” he stressed.

    Transparency measures are proving critical. Arctic Intelligence, in its report “The Role of Beneficial Ownership Registers in Combating Financial Crime,” noted that registries and digital land titles help expose the real individuals behind companies and assets, curbing anonymous transactions. Examples from the United Kingdom, where the People with Significant Control (PSC) register revealed misuse of Scottish Limited Partnerships, and the United States, under the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA), demonstrate how disclosure requirements deter money laundering. Digitised land records, according to a World Bank study covering 37 economies, can reduce property transfer times by nearly 40 per cent while linking ownership to real individuals, enabling authorities to trace illicit funds hidden in complex structures. As calls for accountability grow, experts insist that stricter enforcement of anti-money laundering laws, transparent property registries, and professional oversight are essential to ensure public funds reach their intended purpose and prevent the exploitation of Nigeria’s real estate market by corrupt actors.

  • Nigeria’s death row dilemma: Crushing cost of indecision

    Nigeria’s death row dilemma: Crushing cost of indecision

    While some countries have abandoned the death penalty as punishment for certain offences, Nigeria has remained undecided on the issue, with governors increasingly reluctant to sign death warrants – a development that comes with grave costs to convicts and the states, writes Assistant Editor ERIC IKHILAE.

    A man convicted of murder sits in a narrow cell, counting days that never end.

    The law says he should be hanged.

    The courts have spoken, finally. Yet years pass, governors hesitate, and the rope never comes.

    Across Nigeria’s prisons, thousands of condemned inmates exist in this limbo, suspended between life and death by political caution and legal ambivalence.

    Their sentences are neither carried out nor lifted; instead, they wait – forgotten, restless, and costly to the state.

    Nigeria retains the death penalty on its statute books, pronouncing it in open court with grim finality. Judges pass the ultimate sentence, citing the Constitution and criminal codes.

    But when the time comes to enforce those judgments, state governors step back, unwilling to sign death warrants or commute sentences.

    The result is a silent crisis: overcrowded prisons, broken justice timelines, psychological torment for inmates, and a system accused of cruelty through indecision.

    From high-profile cases like Reverend King and Maryam Sanda to lesser-known convicts across the country, the pattern is the same. Courts condemn. Appeals end. Executions stall.

    What remains is a swelling death row population and a country unsure whether it believes in capital punishment or merely pretends to.

    As Nigeria debates morality, politics and human rights, the cost of hesitation grows, paid in overcrowded cells, strained public funds, and lives trapped in perpetual uncertainty.

    The Supreme Court, in affirming the death sentence for murder handed to General Overseer of the Lagos-based Christian Praying Assembly, Chukwuemeka Ezeugo (a.k.a. Reverend King) by two lower courts, noted the grievous nature of the convict’s conduct.

    In the lead judgment of the unanimous decision of a five-man panel delivered in February 2016, Justice Sylvester Ngwuta observed that the facts of the case were akin to scenes from horror movies, stating: “The facts of the case could have been lifted from a horror film.”

    Ezeugo was first convicted by the High Court of Lagos State on January 11, 2007, and sentenced to various prison terms, including death by hanging, on a six-count charge of attempted murder and murder.

    He was found guilty of setting ablaze six members of his church in 2006. One of the victims, Ann Uzoh, later died from the effects of the fire.

    The Court of Appeal, Lagos Division, affirmed the judgment of the High Court in a decision delivered on February 1, 2013.

    Ezeugo has since remained on death row in one of the nation’s correctional facilities.

    Similarly, in its judgment of December 12, 2025, the apex court noted that an Abuja-based housewife, Maryam Sanda, acted deliberately when she killed her husband.

    In the lead majority judgment of a four-to-one split decision, Justice Moore Adumein noted the concurrent findings of the two lower courts that the deceased was intentionally killed by the appellant (Sanda), who had a premeditated plan to murder him.

    Sanda was convicted and sentenced to death by hanging by a High Court of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in a judgment delivered on January 27, 2020, for killing her husband, Bilyaminu Bello, during a domestic dispute.

    The decision was upheld by the Court of Appeal, Abuja Division, in a judgment delivered on December 4, 2020.

    Sanda has been on death row since the initial conviction by the trial court.

    A High Court of Nasarawa State, sitting in Lafia, on June 26 convicted and sentenced Oluwatimileyin Ajayi to death by hanging for the gruesome murder of a National Youth Service Corps member, Salome Adaidu, whom he claimed was his girlfriend.

    Justice Simon Aboki, in his judgment, found Ajayi guilty of culpable homicide for killing and dismembering the victim.

    Justice Aboki held that the prosecution proved its case beyond a reasonable doubt that the convict killed the victim at his residence.

    Ajayi is currently on death row.

    An Ogun State High Court sitting in Kobape, Abeokuta, on February 3, 2025, sentenced three men – Lekan Adekanbi, Ahmed Odetola, and Waheed Adeniyi – to death by hanging for the murder of Kehinde Fatinoye, his wife Bukola Fatinoye, and their son, Oreoluwa, on January 1, 2023.

    The couple was attacked at their Ibara GRA residence shortly after returning from a crossover service at their church.

    Led by their driver, Adekanbi, the convicts invaded the deceased’s home at about 2 a.m., killing them before setting the house and their bodies on fire.

    The convicts also tied up their son, Oreoluwa, and an adopted son before throwing them into the Ogun River.

    What binds these four cases is that the courts found that all the convicts committed heinous offences for which they were to die by hanging, as provided under the Penal Code and the Criminal Code.

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    The death penalty is also sanctioned under Section 33 of the Constitution.

    The difference, however, lies in the fact that Ajayi, Adekanbi, Odetola, and Adeniyi are yet to exhaust their rights of appeal to the apex court, should they choose to do so.

    By contrast, Ezeugo and Sanda have fully exhausted their rights of appeal, thereby paving the way for the relevant authorities to execute the judgments directing that they be put to death by hanging.

    However, since culpable homicide and related offences are state crimes, the duty of implementing such judgments rests with state governors.

    Unfortunately, the recent trend has been that governors, who swore to uphold the Constitution and obey the laws of the land, have become reluctant or unwilling to sign death warrants or take other necessary steps in respect of death row inmates.

    Exemption from death penalty provisions

    Nigeria’s laws provide certain exceptions to the application of the death penalty.

    These include cases involving pregnant women and young persons.

    The law provides that where a pregnant woman is convicted of a capital offence, a sentence of death shall not be passed on her; rather, she may be sentenced to life imprisonment.

    This provision is intended to prevent the unborn child from suffering punishment for the offence of the mother.

    Under the Children and Young Persons Act 1994, a young person is defined as a person who has attained the age of 14 years and is under 18 years.

    Where such a person is convicted of an offence punishable by death, the law provides that the death sentence shall not be pronounced or recorded; instead, the convict shall be detained at the pleasure of the President or the Governor, as the case may be.

    The Supreme Court has, however, rejected attempts to extend this protection to nursing mothers.

    The apex court made this distinction in its recent decision in the Sanda case.

    Her lawyer had argued, among others, that Section 221 of the Child Rights Act, 2003 precludes a trial court from sentencing a nursing mother to death if she was nursing at the time of conviction and sentencing.

    Justice Adumein rejected the argument, holding that “the principal intendment of the Child Rights Act, 2003 is the protection of the rights of the Nigerian child.”

    He stated that it was “clearly not the intention of the lawmakers that the Act be used as a legal shield preventing an expectant or nursing mother from criminal prosecution or criminal liability.”

    He further held that “any purported non-compliance with Section 221(2) of the Act cannot be a tool for exculpating a Nigerian mother from the consequences of committing serious offences such as armed robbery, culpable homicide punishable with death or murder.”

    The state of death row inmates

    According to data from the Nigerian Correctional Service (NCoS), 3,688 inmates were on death row across the country as of March 2025.

    The Comptroller-General of the NCoS, Sylvester Nwakuche, disclosed this while appearing before the Senate on March 13, 2025.

    He said the figure rose from 3,590 in September 2024 to 3,688 in March 2025, contributing significantly to prison congestion.

    Nwakuche blamed the situation on governors’ failure to act.

    He said: “State governors are part of our challenges. They refuse to execute inmates on death row, and they also refuse to commute death sentences to life imprisonment.”

    He added that commuting the sentences would allow the redistribution of inmates to less congested rural facilities.

    The last execution in Nigeria occurred in 2016, when three men were hanged for murder and armed robbery during the tenure of former Edo State Governor Adams Oshiomhole.

    Despite criticisms, Oshiomhole defended his action as fulfilling his constitutional duty.

    He said: “The day I was sworn in, I subscribed to obey the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”

    Since then, while courts continue to impose death sentences, governors’ refusal to sign death warrants has resulted in a de facto moratorium.

    Argument against death row

    The debate over the retention or abolition of the death penalty has persisted for decades.

    Opponents argue that executing offenders amounts to multiplying sorrow in society, as homicide creates loss, while execution compounds it.

    Unlike countries that have abolished the death penalty, Nigeria remains ambivalent—retaining the law while refusing to enforce it.

    Is the country confused?

    Nigeria’s indecision is evident in conflicting positions between the Federal Government and the states.

    While some states prescribe death for kidnapping, the Federal Government has opposed capital punishment for such offences.

    Attorney-General of the Federation, Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), voted against capital punishment for kidnapping during a Senate hearing.

    He warned of a “martyrdom effect” and international consequences, noting that Nigeria’s counterterrorism cooperation could be weakened.

    He added: “Our problem is not that punishments are not severe enough. It is that arrests are uncertain, investigations are weak, and prosecutions are slow.”

    Costs of Nigeria’s ambivalence

    NCoS spokesman Umar Abubakar said prolonged death row incarceration poses psychological and management challenges.

    Former FCT Chief Judge, Justice Ishaq Bello, warned that governors’ inaction indirectly encourages crime.

    Lawyer James Barkou described prolonged death row incarceration as double jeopardy, arguing that it violates inmates’ constitutional rights.

    Governors’ action as abdication

    According to law experts, the continued refusal by state governors to execute death penalty judgments, while the provision remains part of the nation’s laws, amounts to an abdication of their responsibility under the law.

    President of the Centre for Socio-Legal Studies (CSLS), Professor Yemi Akinseye-George (SAN), said it amounts to abdication of responsibility where governors fail to implement a judgment prescribing a death sentence.

    For Musibau Adetunbi (SAN), keeping convicted persons perpetually on death row was inhuman as it results in mental torture for such a convict.

    He believes it was necessary for governors to either sign their death warrants or convert them to life imprisonment.

    Barkou argued that governors’ refusal to sign death warrants of convicted criminals was unconstitutional and was an attempt to blackmail the judges.

    He noted that by refusing to sign death warrants for those convicted of capital offences, the governors had run against the constitution, which they swore to protect.

    He said: “The refusal or reluctance of governors to sign the death warrant amounts to blackmailing the Judiciary and it is a way of disobeying the Constitution which they have sworn to protect.”

    This position is amplified by Abdullahi Abaoki, an Abuja-based lawyer, who argued that the signing of death warrants by the governors was part of the oath they took while being inaugurated.

    According to Abaoki, by constitutional provision, the governors had committed an impeachable offence by their failure to execute death sentence judgments.

    What option exists?

    According to Adetunbi, the option available to the country, if it remains uncommitted to retaining the death penalty, is for the National Assembly to amend the Constitution to replace the death sentence with life imprisonment, since the governors are unwilling to sign the death warrants.

    Barkou said: “My take is that we must decide between the death sentence and life imprisonment, which should be the maximum penalty for capital offences.”

    He argued that the country could not afford to sit on the fence on the issue, adding: “There should be no middle ground.

    “It is defeatist to create laws that inherently circumvent their own enforcement through detailed technicalities and enforcement reluctance, as we could see with respect to laws concerning the death sentence.”

  • How policy gaps keep Nigeria dependent on petrol imports

    How policy gaps keep Nigeria dependent on petrol imports

    Nigeria’s persistent dependence on imported petrol has become one of the most expensive contradictions in its energy economy. Despite vast crude oil reserves and growing domestic refining capacity, billions of dollars continue to flow abroad each year, draining public finances and foreign exchange. This paradox has intensified scrutiny of regulators and policymakers, with stakeholders demanding decisive reforms that prioritise local refining, restore competitiveness, and finally break the cycle of import dependency, reports Assistant Editor MUYIWA LUCAS

    The call on the country’s newly appointed petroleum sector regulators to make domestic refining and crude oil production top priorities is well founded. For several years, petrol importation has remained a major drain on public finances, costing the government an estimated $18 billion over the past five years alone.

    In setting expectations for the new appointees, stakeholders across the oil and gas industry have been unequivocal in their demand that this trend be reversed, warning that it has become a cankerworm eating deep into the economy. The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr. Muda Yusuf, was particularly forthright, cautioning that failure to decisively address the issue would further entrench Nigeria’s dependence on fuel imports and deepen its economic vulnerabilities. He urged both the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to pursue policies that reduce import reliance, expand domestic capacity, and attract sustained investment into the oil and gas sector.

    According to Yusuf, strong and deliberate support for domestic refining must be treated as an immediate and non-negotiable priority in the downstream segment. He argued that government policy should clearly favour locally refined petroleum products through targeted fiscal, regulatory, and infrastructural incentives for both public and private refineries, while actively encouraging new investments in refining capacity. “Nigeria must end the current distortion whereby imported petroleum products are made to compete with locally refined products under unequal regulatory and fiscal conditions. This does not constitute fair competition. Genuine competition only exists when all operators function within the same policy, tax, and regulatory environment,” he noted.

    Yusuf stressed that the argument goes beyond investor protection to the heart of Nigeria’s long-term economic interests. A strong domestic refining base, he said, is fundamental to building a resilient, energy-secure, and economically sovereign nation. It is also critical for job creation, foreign exchange conservation, macroeconomic stability, and the development of export-oriented refining capacity. More importantly, he described domestic refining as a key pathway to backward integration and resource-based industrialisation. By strengthening refineries, Nigeria also reinforces its petrochemical, fertiliser and allied industries, creating broader industrial value chains capable of driving inclusive and sustainable growth.

    These submissions are reinforced by public affairs analyst Mayowa Sodipo, who described it as a “paradox” that Nigeria continues to export crude oil while importing refined petrol. This anomaly, he noted, was precisely what the Dangote Refinery was designed to address by boosting local output and conserving foreign exchange. While he acknowledged that the cost of petrol imports places immense pressure on the country’s foreign reserves, Sodipo also observed that prevailing market realities can, at times, make fuel imports unavoidable. “Although policies such as the Petroleum Industry Act are intended to promote local refining, significant challenges remain in implementation, transparency, and in balancing incentives for domestic production with the demands of market competition,” he said.

    The rising burden of fuel imports

    For several years, the cost of petrol importation has remained a major drain on Nigeria’s resources, particularly its foreign exchange. In the first half of 2025 alone, petrol imports cost the country about N4 trillion, with an additional N1.28 trillion recorded in the third quarter of the year. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that Nigeria imported N1.76 trillion worth of petrol in the first quarter of 2025. This figure rose sharply to N2.3 trillion in the second quarter, before moderating to N1.28 trillion in the third quarter, bringing total petrol import spending for the first nine months of the year to N5.28 trillion. Figures for the fourth quarter are yet to be released.

    A review of petrol import expenditure over the past four years reveals a persistent and escalating trend. In 2020, Nigeria spent N2.01 trillion on fuel imports. By 2021, this figure had more than doubled, rising by 126.9 per cent to N4.56 trillion amid growing import dependence and global price volatility. The upward trajectory continued in 2022, with costs surging by 69.1 per cent to N7.71 trillion, driven largely by higher international crude prices. Although petrol import spending dipped marginally by 2.6 per cent to N7.51 trillion in 2023, the reprieve was short-lived. In 2024, the figure spiked dramatically by 105.3 per cent to N15.42 trillion—the highest on record—largely reflecting the sharp depreciation of the naira against the US dollar.

    Economists argue that this sustained reliance on petrol imports has continued to undermine the domestic economy. Beyond the pressure it places on foreign exchange reserves, import dependence effectively exports jobs, supporting employment in refining countries while stifling opportunities within Nigeria. This concern is reinforced by an analysis conducted by Statisense, an AI-driven data analytics firm specialising in financial report analysis. The study revealed that in 2023, Nigeria spent approximately $18.7 billion importing petroleum products, including premium motor spirit (PMS), from about 20 countries, several of them within Africa. From just eight African countries, Nigeria spent an estimated $243 million on petroleum imports.

    The data further highlight striking trade imbalances. Petroleum imports from Malta alone surged by $2.03 billion to $2.08 billion in 2023, compared with just $47.5 million in 2013. NBS data show that in the third quarter of 2023, Malta ranked among Nigeria’s top five import sources. During that period, Nigeria imported goods worth $561.37 billion from Malta, with petroleum products accounting for roughly one-third of total imports. Overall, petroleum imports were valued at about $36 trillion in 2023, with petrol accounting for approximately 21 per cent of total imports.

    However, figures from Trade Map, an online trade statistics database managed by the International Trade Centre (ITC)—a joint agency of the United Nations and the World Trade Organisation—present a slightly different picture of import origins. According to the platform, Nigeria’s largest petrol imports in 2023 came from Togo, valued at $109.3 million, and Tunisia, at $104.35 million. Taken together, these statistics underscore Nigeria’s continued dependence on imported fuel, despite ongoing efforts to expand local refining capacity. Analysts attribute this persistence to a combination of supply chain inefficiencies, demand–supply mismatches, and delays in refinery ramp-up, all of which continue to constrain the transition to self-sufficiency.

    Why the preference for importation persists

    Stakeholders in the oil and gas sector argue that Nigeria’s continued preference for petrol importation is rooted in decades of underinvestment, operational inefficiencies, and policy inconsistency within the domestic refining industry. The result has been chronically low local output, compounded by a persistent foreign exchange crisis that, at times, makes imported fuel appear more competitive—even with the entry of the Dangote Refinery. These factors have combined to create a complex mix of market distortions, logistical constraints, and regulatory hurdles that keep the country reliant on foreign supplies, despite long-standing aspirations for self-sufficiency.

    Nigeria’s state-owned refineries, in particular, have consistently underperformed due to poor maintenance regimes and obsolete technology, leaving them unable to meet national demand. In addition, fuel marketers often find it more economical or operationally convenient to source refined products from international markets, especially when domestic production costs, transportation challenges, or supply-chain inefficiencies undermine the competitiveness of locally refined fuel.

    Despite these challenges, Nigeria’s refining landscape has expanded significantly in recent years. The country currently has 30 licensed modular refineries, of which five are operational and producing products such as diesel, kerosene, black oil, and naphtha. About 10 others are at various stages of completion, while the remaining have received licences to establish.

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    Modular refineries are compact, skid-mounted processing plants designed for rapid deployment and lower capital costs. Using simplified refining processes—primarily distillation—they produce essential fuels and offer a flexible, decentralised alternative to large conventional refineries. Their growth is intended to enhance energy security, reduce transportation costs, and bring refining capacity closer to crude oil production sites. The operational modular refineries include Waltersmith Refining and Petrochemical Company (5,000 barrels per day), Aradel Refinery (11,000 bpd), OPAC Refinery (10,000 bpd), Duport Midstream Refinery (2,500 bpd), and Edo Refinery (6,000 bpd).

    On a larger scale, Nigeria’s conventional refineries form the backbone of its historical refining capacity. The Kaduna Refining and Petrochemical Company (KRPC), established in 1980 at a cost of $525 million, was designed to supply petroleum products to Northern Nigeria. Initially built with a capacity of 50,000 bpd, it was expanded in stages to reach a peak capacity of 110,000 bpd by 1986.

    The Old Port Harcourt Refinery, commissioned in 1965 with a capacity of 60,000 bpd, was constructed at a cost of approximately £12 million by Shell BP. While it operated above 50 per cent capacity in its early years, output declined steadily from the 1990s. In March 2021, the Federal Government awarded its rehabilitation contract to Italy’s Tecnimont SPA. By December 2024, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, announced the mechanical completion and flare start-up of the facility.

    The New Port Harcourt Refinery, commissioned in 1985 at a cost of $850 million, added 150,000 bpd to national capacity, bringing the combined Port Harcourt refining capacity to 210,000 bpd. Similarly, the Warri Refinery and Petrochemical Company (WRPC), commissioned in 1978, is a complex conversion refinery with a nameplate capacity of 125,000 bpd. The facility includes a petrochemical plant commissioned in 1988, producing polypropylene and carbon black, and supplies markets across southern and southwestern Nigeria.

    Among private operators, Waltersmith Refining and Petrochemical Company in Imo State began operations in 2020 with a capacity of 5,000 bpd and has announced plans to scale up to 50,000 bpd in the coming years. The most significant addition to Nigeria’s refining capacity is the Dangote Refinery, a 650,000-bpd integrated facility located in the Lekki Free Zone, Lagos. Built at a cost of about $20 billion, the refinery was commissioned in May 2023. Crude processing began in December 2023, with refined products supplied to domestic and international markets from May 2024.

    Other notable projects include the Azikel Refinery, a 12,000-bpd modular hydro-skimming refinery under development in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State, designed to process Bonny Light crude and Gbarain condensate. The Ogbele Refinery, which started operations in 2012 as a 1,000-bpd topping plant, has since expanded into an 11,000-bpd, three-train facility producing diesel, kerosene, naphtha, and fuel oil. The Edo Refinery and Petrochemical Company, owned by AIPCC Energy, operates in two phases with capacities of 1,000 bpd and 5,000 bpd, and plans a further expansion to 12,000 bpd. Additional modular refineries include Duport Midstream in Edo State, OPAC Refinery in Delta State, and the Aradel modular refinery in the Niger Delta, which produces a range of middle distillates and fuel oils.

    The rehabilitation of state-owned refineries and the completion of the Dangote Refinery were widely expected to usher in an era of fuel self-sufficiency and significantly reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products. However, despite these developments, large volumes of refined fuel continue to be imported.

    Industry experts attribute this gap between capacity and reality to persistent operational challenges, delayed ramp-up schedules, pricing dynamics, and regulatory constraints. Nonetheless, stakeholders maintain that Nigeria’s expanding refining infrastructure remains critical to achieving long-term energy security. With a growing mix of modular, conventional, and large-scale private refineries, analysts argue that Nigeria is structurally positioned to evolve into a global refining hub—capable not only of meeting domestic demand but also of supplying refined petroleum products to regional and international markets, provided policy coherence and operational efficiency are sustained.

    Private investment and profitability constraints

    Investor reluctance to commit capital to refining is closely linked to the industry’s narrow profit margins. Refining is a capital-intensive, high-risk business that typically delivers low margins, except during brief periods of favourable market conditions. Returns are cyclical and heavily influenced by global crude prices, exchange rates, and supply disruptions, making refining a complex and uncertain investment proposition. Africa’s richest man and President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, has publicly acknowledged this reality. Speaking during a recent media tour of the Dangote Refinery, he described refining as a low-return venture compared to other global investments. “There is a very low margin as profit on refining business. In fact, if I had invested the amount spent on this refinery on Google, I would have made twice the investment. There is very little money in refining,” Dangote said.

    For modular refineries—often described as a critical bridge toward energy self-sufficiency—the profitability challenge is even more pronounced. Many modular refiners are still awaiting their first crude oil allocations, despite the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s (NNPC Ltd.) pledge to support them as part of government efforts to boost local refining and reduce fuel imports. The delays have forced several operators to run far below installed capacity or rely on alternative, more expensive feedstock sources. While some refiners have turned to third-party suppliers, others have had no choice but to suspend operations altogether.

    Industry experts attribute the limited output of modular refineries to a combination of structural and operational constraints. The Vice Chairman of the Crude Oil Refinery-owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), Mrs. Oludolapo Okulaja, identified key challenges including poor infrastructure, unreliable power supply, weak transportation networks, and inadequate or non-existent pipeline infrastructure—all of which significantly raise operating costs. Although policy incentives such as duty waivers on imported equipment and tax reliefs exist, Okulaja argued that implementation remains inconsistent. “These incentives need to be properly executed within a clear and workable framework that beneficiaries can actually access,” she said.

    Echoing these concerns, CORAN’s National Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, revealed that modular refineries have yet to receive a single barrel of crude from NNPC Ltd. since the naira-for-crude initiative commenced in October 2024. “As a result, most modular refineries are operating at about 20 per cent capacity,” Idoko said. “They are forced to source feedstock from third parties, which is usually very expensive.” He added that Edo Refinery, for example, relies on trucked crude from third-party suppliers, driving landing costs to nearly four times what they should be. Waltersmith and Aradel refineries, he noted, are able to operate only because they source crude from their own marginal fields—though even that supply is insufficient to fully meet plant requirements.

    The naira-for-crude scheme was designed to address precisely these constraints by allowing local refineries to purchase crude oil in naira through NNPC Ltd. Under the arrangement, NNPC says it has supplied about 48 million barrels of crude to the Dangote Refinery. Although the original plan envisaged supplying seven smaller refineries alongside Dangote, only the Dangote facility ultimately benefited—and even it did not receive the full volumes initially agreed.

    Okulaja said the situation has become critical. “Both modular refineries and the Dangote Refinery are in urgent need of consistent feedstock. Supplying crude to local refineries should now be a top government priority, so plants can operate at optimal capacity,” she said.

    She cited cases where refineries with installed capacities of 10,000 barrels per day—equivalent to 300,000 barrels per month—are allocated as little as 30,000 barrels for an entire month. “That simply does not make sense,” she said. According to Okulaja, local refiners have the potential to transform Nigeria into a net exporter of high-quality petroleum products while simultaneously meeting domestic energy needs. Achieving this, however, requires deliberate policies to expand refining capacity and prioritise in-country value addition. “Refining our crude locally creates far more value than exporting it as raw material, only to import finished products at higher prices and often inferior quality,” she argued.

    She identified regulatory bottlenecks, limited access to financing, and inadequate domestic crude supply as the most pressing challenges. In particular, she accused the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) of failing to fully enforce the Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligations (DCOS) framework, thereby depriving both modular refineries and the Dangote Refinery of reliable feedstock. Okulaja also pointed to Nigeria’s persistently low crude oil production, attributing it partly to theft and vandalism. “Despite decades of oil production, Nigeria has not translated its resources into meaningful national development or wealth,” she said. “The continued reliance on imported, often substandard, petroleum products reflects a failure to adequately support domestic refining.”

    Demand versus supply security

    Given the sheer scale of the Dangote Refinery, many analysts argue that Nigeria should, in theory, have ended petrol importation. Aliko Dangote has repeatedly stated that his 650,000-barrel-per-day facility can meet 100 per cent of the country’s petrol demand. At about 85 per cent operating capacity, the refinery produces over 57 million litres of petrol daily, compared with national consumption of roughly 50 million litres per day. This excludes the refinery’s strategic reserve of more than one billion litres. Projections indicate that the plant could exceed domestic demand by 15 to 20 million litres daily, potentially reshaping fuel supply across Africa.

    However, major marketers caution against relying on a single source for national supply. They argue that operational risks, logistics constraints, and distribution bottlenecks make sole dependence on one refinery impractical. The Executive Secretary of the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), Clement Isong, confirmed that all member companies currently purchase petrol from the Dangote Refinery. Nonetheless, he stressed that supply timing, logistics, and volume constraints prevent the facility from being Nigeria’s only source of petrol. “It is almost impossible for a single source to meet demand in the way marketers require it—when they want it, how they want it, and in the quantities they need,” Isong said. He explained that while some marketers require ship-to-ship deliveries, others depend on gantry loading, and queuing at a single location inevitably creates bottlenecks. According to him, these challenges have already resulted in temporary fuel shortages at some filling stations operated by major marketers.

    The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), however, takes a different view. The economic think-tank argues that exposing local refiners to unrestricted global competition without first addressing structural deficiencies—such as high energy costs, poor infrastructure, and limited access to finance—creates what it describes as a “policy-induced disadvantage.” To ensure that protective measures deliver long-term benefits, CPPE recommends complementary interventions, including low-cost financing, reliable power supply, infrastructure investment, and streamlined regulation. “Protection must be strategic, time-bound, and performance-based,” the group advised, adding that once domestic refineries achieve stability, Nigeria should pivot toward export competitiveness. The centre also called for robust monitoring and evaluation frameworks to ensure that protection drives productivity, innovation, and price moderation, rather than rent-seeking or inefficiency.

  • Unlocking Nigeria’s untapped $44 billion maritime goldmine

    Unlocking Nigeria’s untapped $44 billion maritime goldmine

    Nigeria is sitting on a revenue goldmine. With the capacity to generate an estimated $44 billion, about N70 trillion revenue annually, her marine and blue economy is on a good stead to dislodge oil as economy’s major revenue earner. But the snag is that this humongous revenue remains largely untapped due to structural inefficiencies and outdated laws. Maritime industry experts and stakeholders are now clamouring for a comprehensive legal and institutional overhaul of Nigeria’s maritime sector to unlock its huge and untapped potential. AFIONG EDEMUMOH reports.

    Renowned maritime law expert and former Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) President, Dr. Olisa Agbakoba (SAN), is not a man given to frivolities. For a man sufficiently schooled in the dynamics of maritime law, his positions and insights into Nigeria’s marine and blue economy are usually taken seriously.

    So, when Agbakoba recently revealed that the maritime industry holds promise of swelling the nation’s revenue purse by as much as $44 billion, about N70 trillion annually, it was a call for action by various stakeholders to unlock the industry’s huge but largely untapped potential and ultimately, boost the nation’s revenue profile.

    The $44b potential windfall from the marine and blue economy, which excites Agbakoba and indeed, other maritime law experts and stakeholders, is confirmed by projections from the Nigerian Institution of Marine Engineers and Naval Architects (NIMENA), which pegged the industry’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contribution at approximately $44 billion (N70 trillion) annually, with improved governance.

    However, the N70 trillion estimate, according to analysis from the Sea Empowerment and Research Center (SEREC), reflects the aggregate economic value that a fully optimized maritime and blue economy could contribute to national output, not the level of revenue currently accruing to government. At roughly $44 billion annually, this potential would represent 6–7 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP.

    While this scale is ambitious, experts say that it is not inherently unrealistic when benchmarked against maritime-driven economies globally. But even at this, Nigeria’s present reality tells a more sobering story. Despite hosting one of Africa’s longest coastlines and busiest maritime corridors, actual public revenue from the maritime and blue economy remains below N2 trillion annually.

    Globally, the Blue Economy, defined by the World Bank as the sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods and jobs while preserving the health of the ocean ecosystem, is the seventh largest economy in the world, with its value projected by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to reach $3 trillion by 2030.

    Nigeria, with its vast coastline, Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), and extensive inland waterways, is strategically positioned to capture a significant portion of this growth. Sadly, however, available statistics indicate that the country is currently losing an estimated N20 billion daily due to the state of the ports and other outdated infrastructure used in maritime operations.

    This deplorable state of infrastructure and other operational bottlenecks are said to be forcing cargo diversion to neighbouring West African countries’ hubs in Cotonou, Tema, and Lomé. Besides, statistics further revealed that over 25, 000 foreign vessels are reportedly engaged in illegal or non-compliant trade within Nigerian coastal waters, effectively stifling indigenous economic growth.

    It is against this backdrop that Agbakoba’s revelation becomes critical for Nigeria’s fiscal health. For one, the nation is currently battling with an acute fiscal crisis, with total public debt soaring to an estimated N152.40 trillion (approximately $99.66 billion) as of June 30, 2025. The debt servicing burden remains a crushing obligation for government as it took a bigger chunk of the Federal Government’s total revenue in 2024, amounting to 77.5 per cent, for instance.

    Agbakoba, however, affirmed that “the maritime industry’s N70 trillion in annual revenue could transform our debt servicing burden from a crisis into a manageable obligation while funding the infrastructure and social investments Nigeria desperately needs.”

    Accordingly, in a detailed letter to the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyegba Oyetola, dated November 30 and titled: “Unlocking Nigeria’s Maritime Sector Potential—a Pathway to Realising N70 Trillion Annually,” the maritime law expert was emphatic that a comprehensive legislative framework is the definitive way forward.

    X-raying the proposals

    Agbakoba’s transformative agenda for the maritime industry, essentially, calls for an immediate and comprehensive legislative framework comprising the enactment of nine new laws and the amendment of seven existing ones. These laws are designed to plug the regulatory and institutional gaps that currently allow massive revenue leakages and cripple local participation.

    These new enactments, Agbakoba stressed, are essential for establishing a modern, structured, and secure operational environment that aligns with international best practices and leverages emerging technologies. For instance, the Ports and Inland Waterways Development Act will modernise port infrastructure and streamline governance, ensuring Nigeria’s ports compete globally and attract greater trade volumes.

    On the other hand, the Marine Spatial Planning Act, based on Agbakoba’s proposal, will coordinate the sustainable use of maritime space, balancing economic, social, and environmental goals for long-term sector growth, while the Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture Act is designed to combat illegal fishing and promote blue food security, safeguarding Nigeria’s fisheries for future generations.

    There is also the Marine Pollution Control and Climate Adaptation Act, to preserve the health of the marine ecosystem, aligning with the World Bank’s definition of the Blue Economy and positioning Nigeria as a responsible steward of its maritime resources.

    The Coast Guard Establishment Act will create a dedicated, uniformed service for the civil enforcement of maritime laws, improving safety and regulatory compliance at sea; the Maritime Security and Piracy Suppression Act will build on the success of the Deep Blue Project, further enhancing anti-piracy operations and ensuring Nigeria’s waters remain secure for commerce and tourism.

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    That is not all. The Legal Framework for Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) will position Nigeria as a regional leader in adopting digital maritime services, preparing the sector for the future of shipping technology.

    Similarly, the Electronic Bill of Lading Framework will digitalise and expedite trade documentation, reducing delays and improving efficiency in maritime trade.

    Also, the Blue Economy Act will serve as a unifying piece of legislation, harmonising all sector activities under the new Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy and ensuring a coordinated approach to maritime development and regulation.

    Together, these laws, Agbakoba noted, form the foundation for a robust, sustainable, and technologically advanced maritime sector in Nigeria.

    The proposed amendments

    The proposed amendments are focused on empowering existing regulatory agencies and closing revenue loopholes in major laws such as the NIMASA Act 2007, NPA Act 1999, NIWA Act 1997, Cabotage Act 2003, Merchant Shipping Act 2007, Petroleum Industry Act 2021, EEZ Act 1978, and Sea Fisheries Act 1992.

    These legislative changes, according to Agbakoba, must be complemented by critical institutional reforms, including the establishment of a National Blue Economy Commission to serve as the overarching coordinating and implementation body, a Marine Pollution Task Force to enforce environmental standards, and the creation of specialised maritime courts to expedite the resolution of complex maritime disputes, which is essential for attracting global investors.

    Addressing the $14.2 billion port crisis

    The most immediate revenue opportunity lies in fixing Nigeria’s dysfunctional port system, a problem costing the nation an astronomical sum. The Sea Empowerment and Research Center (SEREC) said that the Nigerian maritime sector loses between $3 billion and $5 billion annually due to freight charges, port congestion, and poor multimodal integration.

    More severely, a report by the African Centre for Supply Chain estimates a loss of about $14.2 billion annually from bottlenecks at Lagos ports alone.

    Agbakoba projects that port infrastructure development can yield approximately N14 trillion annually, and this revenue stream is achievable by eliminating the inefficiencies that cause cargo to take an average of 19 days to clear in Lagos ports, a delay that costs the economy over $1 billion yearly.

    “Nigeria loses N20 billion daily as cargo diverts to Cotonou, Tema, and Lomé due to poor port infrastructure,” Agbakoba lamented, noting that “Enacting the Ports and Inland Waterways Development Act and amending the NPA and NIWA Acts would modernise our ports and unlock revenues from tariffs, cargo handling fees, and special economic zones.”

    He said modernisation initiatives, including ongoing digitalisation and rehabilitation projects, must be accelerated and supported by this decisive legislative framework.

    Unlocking N12tr in inland waterways

    The vast, yet underutilised network of inland waterways presents another formidable revenue opportunity, projected to yield N10-12 trillion annually.

    “Dredging the River Niger and River Benue to create a functional multimodal transport system would reduce transportation costs, decongest roads, and generate revenues from tolls, ferry services, and tourism,” Agbakoba noted.

    This action would relieve the massive pressure on Nigeria’s road networks, which currently handle over 90 per cent of port cargo, incurring trucking costs of nearly N1 trillion yearly.

    Recapturing wealth via cabotage, local content

    The dominance of foreign interests in Nigeria’s coastal trade is arguably the single largest drain on indigenous maritime wealth, with Agbakoba projecting that stringent cabotage enforcement can generate about N8 trillion annually.

    Reports have long indicated that foreign firms control as much as 90 per cent of the vessels operating in Nigeria’s waters.

    While the Coastal and Inland Shipping (Cabotage) Act of 2003 aimed to reserve this trade for Nigerian-owned, -crewed, -flagged, and -built vessels, the provision of waivers has created a loophole exploited by foreign operators.

    A former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria once estimated that the anomaly was costing the country as much as N2 trillion yearly.

    “Over 25,000 foreign vessels illegally trade in our coastal waters. Strengthening the Cabotage Act 2003 would recapture these revenues while creating jobs for Nigerian seafarers and shipping companies,” the legal luminary stated.

    The Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) has previously initiated a five-year plan to end Cabotage waivers, but this strategy requires the robust legislative backing proposed.

    Furthermore, the Oil and Gas Maritime Services sector currently sees the loss of about N16 trillion annually, with over $1 billion in legal services, shipping contracts, banking services, and marine insurance flowing abroad.

    The solution is simple yet powerful: “Enforcing the Local Content Act across all value chains and establishing a Maritime Development Bank would recapture the losses,” creating sustainable financial and professional capacity locally.

    Nigeria’s maritime security dividend

    Maritime Security and the broader Blue Economy, experts say, can generate between N8 to N10 trillion annually, a figure predicated on eliminating the immense financial burden of insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea.

    Though the Nigerian Government’s Integrated National Security and Waterways Protection Infrastructure, the Deep Blue Project, has achieved a notable 30 per cent drop in piracy, the threat remains costly.

    External reports underscore the severity of the threat: maritime piracy in West Africa cost over $800 million in 2017 (Oceans Beyond Piracy), and the conservative estimate for the direct and indirect cost of piracy to Gulf of Guinea nations is nearly $2 billion (Stable Seas, 2021).

    Furthermore, SEREC estimates that Gulf of Guinea war-risk premiums alone cost Nigeria-linked trade $200 million to $400 million yearly.

    Agbakoba insists that while the Deep Blue Project is foundational, “only a coast guard could adequately protect the maritime domain.”

    The establishment of the proposed Coast Guard Establishment Act is the final piece of the security puzzle. “Enhanced security will attract international shipping, reduce insurance premiums by 40 per cent, and unlock coastal tourism revenues,” he said.

    Indeed, maritime security remains a foundational economic issue. Sustained improvements in security not only reduce insurance premiums and capital flight but also restore investor confidence across shipping, offshore services, and coastal trade.

    Looking to the near future, the sector must embrace emerging maritime technologies, which can generate between N5 to N6 trillion annually.

    With the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) set to mandate Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) by January 2028, Agbakoba stressed that “Early adoption through appropriate legal frameworks would position Nigeria as a regional hub for digital maritime services,” preparing the nation for the next phase of global maritime trade.

     “The legal framework for MASS is thus a necessity, not a luxury,” he emphasized, adding that a crucial, yet often overlooked, revenue stream is Oil Rig Taxation, which could yield about N6 trillion annually.

    Tax is currently not collected from oil rigs operating in Nigerian waters; a glaring legal loophole. Amending the NIMASA Act to establish a comprehensive taxation framework would immediately capture this revenue stream, providing a stable, non-oil source of income.

    Push for diligent policy implementation

    Industry stakeholders have largely endorsed the thrust of Agbakoba’s argument while emphasising the critical importance of implementation discipline. For instance, the Managing Director/Co-founder of Trucks Transit Parks Limited, Jama Onwubuariri, agrees that Nigeria can unlock very significant maritime and blue economy revenue, potentially on that scale over time.

    Onwubuariri, however, said this is only possible if the country moves from policy ambition to disciplined execution. “The policy framework is not the constraint; implementation is,” he emphasised.

    From his experience in port access management and maritime logistics, he identified three immediate priorities: governance and institutional alignment, operational efficiency and digitisation, and enforcement of existing laws.

    Onwubuariri said: “Too many overlapping mandates at the ports and waterways create duplication, discretion and revenue leakages. The government should rationalise roles, enforce inter-agency data sharing, and publish clear Key Performance Indicators KPIs.”

    He advocated for a credible national port community system/single window, end-to-end e-payments, and automated compliance processes to reduce human bottlenecks and improve collection, noting that efficiency is a revenue multiplier.

    Most critically, Onwubuariri called for firm, transparent enforcement of cabotage, safety standards, local content and taxation—supported by technology, to close the non-compliance gap without necessarily requiring new laws.

    “The opportunity is real, but to unlock it is simple: reduce discretion, digitise processes, and enforce consistently. That is how the sector translates potential into measurable revenue, jobs, and competitiveness,” he said.

    The realistic way forward

    Indeed, most of the reforms required to unlock the maritime value chain already exist on paper. For instance, the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy (2025–2034) provides a comprehensive roadmap covering port modernisation, inland waterways development, cabotage enforcement, maritime security, local content, and emerging maritime technologies.

    Experts, however, maintain that what has been missing, historically, is decisive execution backed by institutional coordination and political will. Although, SEREC agreed that the country can realistically unlock significant maritime-driven economic value, but this will not happen in an overnight leap to N70 trillion in annual fiscal inflows.

    A more credible trajectory, the group argued, would see incremental gains in the short term, rising steadily as reforms mature. “With focused legislative amendments, strengthened regulatory institutions, and targeted infrastructure investment, the sector could deliver N3–N5 trillion in additional value within the next three years, scaling to N10–N20 trillion over the medium term,” Head of Research, SEREC, Eugene Nweke, said.

    He further noted that key priorities to attain this must include the urgent amendment and enforcement of the Cabotage Act, modernisation of port operations through digitalisation and automation and the activation of inland waterways as viable commercial transport corridors.

    Equally important is the need to empower maritime regulatory agencies with clearer mandates, operational autonomy, and technology-driven oversight to reduce revenue leakage and improve compliance.

     “Maritime security also remains a foundational economic issue. Sustained improvements in security not only reduce insurance premiums and capital flight but also restore investor confidence across shipping, offshore services, and coastal trade.

    “The roadmap, Agbakoba concluded, exists in the National Policy; all that is now required is decisive implementation.”While the world focuses on our oil and gas sector, the maritime sector quietly presents opportunities that could rival or exceed petroleum revenues while creating millions of jobs and establishing Nigeria as a true maritime power,” he underscored.

    According to SEREC, “Ultimately, the N70 trillion proposition should be viewed not as an exaggerated claim, but as a long-term economic signal—a reminder of what Nigeria stands to gain if it treats the maritime and blue economy as a strategic national asset rather than a peripheral sector.

    “Without decisive action, however, the figure risks joining a long list of well-articulated but unrealised development aspirations.”

    For Nigeria, the maritime think-tank noted, “the choice is clear: move from policy rhetoric to implementation discipline, or continue to forfeit one of its most viable non-oil revenue frontiers in an era of mounting fiscal pressure.”

  • Banking with tears: How the visually impaired struggle for equal access

    Banking with tears: How the visually impaired struggle for equal access

    Inclusive banking is one concept that financial sector leaders are never tired of discussing. But in practice, not much is being done to advance the practice and improve the banking experience of customers, especially the blind and visually impaired customers of banks. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN’s) exclusion of braille feature in naira banknotes design and failure of banks to include Braille and Interactive Voice Response (IVR) features in internet/mobile banking applications and Automated Teller Machine (ATM) for visually impaired are pain-points that erode confidence in the financial system. Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE captures blind customers’ pains in accessing financial services and stakeholders’ inability to meet their demands.

    Olurotimi Olubodede, a Ph.D. student at Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Nasarawa State, is not interested in any of the N5.01 trillion naira notes circulating in Nigeria. To him, they are merely pieces of paper—unidentifiable and unusable for meeting the banking needs of the visually impaired.

    Olubodede, who is blind, is frustrated that the interests of approximately 1.2 million Nigerians, born blind or who became blind over the course of their lives, are overlooked in key financial sector policies, including the design of the naira. He lamented that current banknotes lack tactile or other features that would make them accessible to the blind. This omission adds to the numerous barriers that make it difficult for visually impaired individuals in Nigeria to access financial services.

    A Lecturer in the Mass Communication Department at Adekunle Ajasin University, Ondo State, Olubodede said he intends to sustain the fight against the restriction or outright denial of banking services for the blind through advocacy and dialogue with banks and regulatory institutions. “Being born blind yet educated, I have experienced almost everything life could offer—the good, the bad, and the ugly,” he said. “I will continue to speak for visually impaired customers who are often neglected and unheard in this country.”

    Olubodede argued that discrimination based on visual impairment—including denial of equal access to financial services—not only violates universal human rights but also undermines business performance and economic growth. He emphasised that blind individuals are integral to building stronger economies, and there is a clear business case for their inclusion. “With the advent of technology, everyone else is enjoying seamless banking services except the blind. We have repeatedly urged banks, including the major ones, to invest in technology that protects our accounts and enables independent transactions, but to no avail,” he lamented.

    Although he cannot see, Olubodede is acutely aware of the emergence of fast, secure, and seamless digital banking services. He recounted an incident at the Ikare, Akoko branch of a new-generation bank in Ondo State, where he was initially denied a replacement ATM card because he could not produce a work ID. The branch manager eventually issued the card but noted, “I am issuing this card because of your working place.” Olubodede concluded that the visually impaired are routinely denied access to quality, technology-driven services, and in the rare cases when such services are provided, the conditions often compromise their safety and the security of their funds.

    State of the industry

    The CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, announced that Nigeria has extended its Payment System Vision roadmap from 2020 to 2028, reflecting an ambitious commitment to modernize the country’s payments infrastructure and strengthen cybersecurity. He noted that more than 12 million contactless payment cards are now in circulation. Additionally, the regulatory sandbox has expanded to include over 40 fintech innovators, providing a platform for safe experimentation and the responsible scaling of new digital finance solutions. “Revised agent banking guidelines have tightened anti money laundering controls, including geo fencing of high risk areas, while improving consumer protection at the last mile. Integration across switching companies has improved, bringing Nigeria closer to seamless domestic interoperability,” he said.

    According to Cardoso, Nigeria, supported by these measures, currently stands among Africa’s most advanced digital payments markets, with a dynamic fintech ecosystem that has produced eight of the continent’s nine unicorns. He added that by mid-2025, leading fintech apps had surpassed 10 million downloads each, with one surpassing 50 million downloads, reflecting deep consumer adoption

    Despite these milestones, findings showed that the visually impaired customers of Wema Bank, Access Bank, Ecobank Nigeria, Fidelity Bank, Unity Bank, Union Bank, Keystone Bank, among others have continued to complain about the quality of services they receive from the banks.  Many of these banks have stopped Interactive Voice Response (IVR) otherwise known as telephone banking for the blind to save cost. They also deny blind customers opportunity to have access to ATM cards. Aside from technology deprivation, many banks prevent them from entering their banking halls with guide-cane or white-cane meant for them to navigate their ways. The banks are also denying visually impaired customers access to loans, even when they have collaterals.

    More victims narrate their experiences

    National President, Nigeria Association of the Blind (NAB), Stanley Onyebuchi, agrees with Olubodede. For him, banks have failed to ensure the services they provide align with the lifestyle of all categories of customers. Onyebuchi listed the inability of visually impaired customers to access ATM cards, banks’ apps not developed with features that support their use by visually impaired customers and outright denial of banking services to his members.   “We have written twice to the CBN itemising these complaints but got no rely. It is unfortunate that the apex bank is not doing enough to ensure that banks provide the right services to the visually impaired customers.

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    “Our members have continued to complain about banks refusing to issue them ATM cards. In the United States, and United Kingdom, and other advanced countries, the story is different. In those countries, a visually impaired cardholder will just insert his/her headphone, and the ATM will be telling him/her what to do until the transaction is completed,” he said.

    According to him, “the visually impaired also have challenge using writing pen and the Nigerian banks are not accepting thumb printing.  Many of us have irregular signature, unless we use stamp, which also carries its own risks of being used by third parties. Many of us cannot afford android phones to be able to read bank alerts on our phones. For the visually impaired, banking has become a nightmare,” he said.

    David Okon, a visually impaired customer and Executive Member, NAB, said it is unfortunate that some banks are asking visually impaired customers to complete an indemnity form, that is stamped in the court before an account can be opened for them. He said: “Why will banks impose such huge cost on their visually impaired customers? Something they cannot do to other customers who have no such disabilities. We are working to ensure that such practice stops to allow everyone easy access to financial services.”

    Okon, a staff of one of the Tier-1 banks in Nigeria, also narrated how some banks deny visually impaired customers access to internet banking and ATM services. He said: “The challenge is that the banking system does not have uniform policy on how to serve visually impaired customers. The services we get depend on which bank branch one visits, who the customer service person is and his/her dispositions. There is no binding policy that guides financial services provision to the visually impaired.”

    Mrs. Patience Okafor, a member NAB, narrated her experiences with her banks. “If I don’t fill my pay slip before I walk into the banking hall, getting someone to do it for me is going to be a challenge. Another problem is access to the bank. Some of us move with the guide canes which cannot pass the electric doors installed at the entrance of the banking halls,” she said. Continuing, Mrs. Okafor said sometimes, she had to drop her cane behind, or talk to the security personnel to disable the entrance door before she can go in with the cane.

    A visually impaired customer of Access Bank and Convener, Hope and Life for Disabled Persons Foundation (HALFDIPEF), Abiodun Erugbaju, spoke on horrendous experience he had during one of his visits to the bank. “How would you feel when you discover that there are no voice guidance and tactile keyboards on the ATMs your bank expects you to use. Or there is no screen reading software in terms of online banking that enables the computer to speak everything that appears on the screen. Or hearing a customer service officer ask a colleague, who will be operating the bank account for him?” These, he said, were some of his experiences in banks, almost on daily basis.

    He went further: “Sadly though, the customer service officer was not even asking me directly, she was asking a colleague. When I heard it, I felt bad, and quickly told her that the question was ridiculous. If you want to ask this type of question, you should ask me. Not a third party that does not know about me. She is not my brother or someone that knows me. “Asking a stranger who will be operating my account for me is derogatory. Which means I can’t do that even as a master’s degree holder? I brought out four different ATM cards and told the customer service officer that the card she has just given me will make it the fifth that I have at the moment. Then, I told her that she had just insulted me by that question,” Erugbaju narrated.

    Erugbaju said although the CBN has consistently advised banks and financial institutions to provide ATMs that are accessible to and independently useable by individuals who are blind, the banks have largely ignored the directive. “There should be more sensitization of the visually impaired and other members of the society on the workings of digital payment. I have not seen that level of seriousness on the part of the CBN educating people with sight, left alone the visually impaired,” he said.

    Also speaking, a visually civil servant based in Lagos, Mrs. Zaria   Abdul, said there are so many things she wanted the financial sector to improve on. She said she cannot use the ATMs because of difficulties in accessing the keys, adding that banks should put some signs on the ATM that identify the numbers on the keypad and well as the notes. “I was at Wema Bank the other time, and I had to call the security man to assist me with my account number. And you know the account number is supposed to be private, but I have to disclose it just to get the transaction done,” she said.

    According to her, adding Interactive Voice Response will make it easier for visually impaired customers to listen and follow instructions in carrying out their transactions, instead of relying on third parties. Mrs. Abdul said although she has not been a victim of ATM fraud, many of her friends have been defrauded by the very people they trusted with their ATM cards and PINs.

    A member of the Disability Policy and Advocacy Initiative (DPAI), Moses Adigun, who is also blind, supported Erugbayi’s argument saying the banks need to provide software tools that would enable them use internet banking facilities. He said the ATMs are not well equipped for the blind. He said that the banking halls not accessible, with many of them with inadequately measured ramps, and greater number without any.

    “The ATMs are not equipped to give me my account balances, buy air airtime, pay utility bills among other services,” he said. For him such inadequacies have discouraged him from using the banks adding that bank notes are not recognisable to the blind.

    “Look at the polymer notes we are using now. I don’t know how to differentiate between N5, N10, N20 and N50. They all have same texture and feature.  As far as I am concerned, they are all the same. If the CBN wants to create the needed features, it can do it. But the bitter truth is that they do not even think that some people are disabled. We are the ones affected, but some of them may be disabled one day. Challenges can visit anybody just like rain can fall at any time without announcements,” he said.

    Michael Kamya, Executive Director of the Union for the Blind, which operates in Lagos and Nairobi, Kenya, also recounted his experience with Barclays Bank Uganda, where his request for a $10,000 salary advance loan was declined. He said: “I applied for a loan and they said your organisation did not qualify when we did the qualification sampling. Then I said no problem, I am not qualified, but one of my staff who is not disabled applied for the loan and got it. I am the chief executive officer of the organisation where she works, how come I was not qualified? What is the problem so that I rectify it so that other staff will not be denied when they apply?

    “They said I was just not qualified. Then I said, can you put what you are telling me in writing? The bank said no. Then, I contacted my lawyer who wrote them. They sensed there was big trouble when I kept writing them, up to three times. They gave me the loan. I was contemplating dragging them to court before they responded. They just sensed I was on the move.”

    Kamya, who spoke while attending a conference in Ikeja, Lagos, called for continuous advocacy to draw the attention of the authorities to the various challenges faced by Persons with Disability, especially the blind. He said challenges faced by the blind differ from bank to bank, but the issues have to do with discrimination, poor customer services and outright denial of banking services. “Some banks don’t think that I am eligible to have a bank account. Some banks do not accept thumb prints thereby excluding the blind that may not be able to sign with a pen. Sometimes, it may have to do with ignorance by the staff of the banking institution. Some banks even think that as a visually impaired person, one is not entitled to a loan. There are also issues around bank notes not being accessible to blind users who will not be able to differentiate one currency from another. I have seen these practices in Lagos, Kenya and Uganda,” Kamya stated.

    Views from other stakeholders

    President of the Bank Customers Association of Nigeria, Dr. Uju Ogubunka, said banks are not doing enough to ensure that visually impaired persons are financially included. He said banks should make messages about their products and services available to the blind in a manner they can understand them. He called on stakeholders to work towards ensuring the effective inclusion of the blind in empowerment programmes that would have positive behavioural change on their relationship with banks.

    Ogubunka, who was also former Registrar, Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), said the exclusion of the visually impaired from the design, planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of government policies on key issues that affect their lives is highly disturbing. He said there is also need to include the visually impaired persons in national and state strategic plans and other relevant policy documents on banking operations, telecom and reproductive health, which he said, constitute major concern to stakeholders. For him, Nigeria banks can develop homegrown solution to provide quality services to their visually impaired customers. The banks, he added, can also borrow ideas from advanced countries on how they are meeting the banking needs of their blind customers.

    A source in Ecobank Nigeria who asked not to be named because he was not authorised to speak on the matter said the bank’s ATMs have voice prompt that enables visually impaired customers to carry out their transactions seamlessly. “Our online plan is to accommodate people with disabilities and ensure they have the best of services. All the Ecobank ATMs nationwide will have voice prompt,” the source said.

    For Erugbaju, what is needed is stakeholders’ dialogue, adding that sitting back and making policies without talking to those directly affected by it, will not produce the desired results. According to Kamya, governments at all levels need to be consulting with disabled persons when making policies that affect their lives and finances. “We have a slogan that says ‘Nothing for Us Without Us’ meaning that we are the better advocates for ourselves. So, we need to be part of whatever policies that are designed for us. There is also need for more sensitisation in the banking sector so that their staff look at us as human beings,” he advised.

    Other stakeholders advocated for the inclusivity and accessibility of blind people’s needs, not just to banking services but also to information, safe use of public infrastructure, public transport system, access to qualitative and functional inclusive education, attainment of fully independent living, inclusion into political and socio-economic activities among others to promote equitable and sustainable society.

  • Judgment won, justice lost: Inside Nigeria’s broken enforcement system

    Judgment won, justice lost: Inside Nigeria’s broken enforcement system

    • Why court victories mean little to many citizens

    Many litigants have had to endure the hidden crisis and the broken chain of judgment enforcement in Nigeria. After going through the torturous journey of court victory, the real frustration begins: the elusive fruit of a favourable judgment. From corruption and bureaucracy to government impunity, JOSEPH JIBUEZE examines why enforcing judgments remains one of the justice system’s weakest links.

    In Nigeria’s justice system, winning a case after many years in court is often the easy part. Enforcing the judgment is the real tough nut.

    Across the country, thousands of court judgments, some against private companies, others against government agencies, sit unenforced, trapped in a legal limbo where victory brings no relief and court orders command no obedience.

    “Court orders are not respected in Nigeria. This is one pain I live with as a legal practitioner in this country,” said activist-lawyer Festus Ogun.

    From commercial disputes to labour cases, from compensation awards to fundamental rights enforcement, litigants routinely discover that the law’s authority ends where enforcement begins.

    Former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo (SAN) captured the frustrations: “Often, judgment creditors will abandon enforcement because of the high cost and low success rate…”

    The consequences are devastating. Families bankrupted by prolonged litigation find that their “victory” cannot pay hospital bills or school fees.

    Businesses that survive years in court collapse while waiting for judgments to be honoured.

    For many, the failure of enforcement is not just a legal problem; it is an economic sentence.

    Lawyers describe the process as a maze deliberately designed to exhaust claimants. Court registries delay the issuance of enforcement documents. Sheriffs demand unofficial fees.

    Police officers refuse to act without “clear directives.” Government agencies invoke bureaucracy, budgetary constraints, or outright silence.

    In some cases, enforcement is treated not as a right flowing from judgment, but as a favour to be negotiated.

    Unpalatable experience

    In 2005, a governor in a Northcentral state sent teachers back to their states of origin.

    The teachers briefed Jibrin Okutepa (SAN) to challenge the action.

    On February 18, 2008, judgment was delivered in favour of the teachers.

    The court ordered that they be reinstated and their salaries and allowances be paid to them.

    Okutepa said: “From 2008 to date, the state government is yet to obey the judgment.

    “Under the law, these people have the right to enforce the judgment. We have been trying to do so on their behalf since, but we have met one legal antics or another, all being employed by lawyers.

    “We have been facing obstacles deliberately put in place by lawyers who have allowed themselves to be used as instruments to obstruct the course of justice.”

    Other lawyers cry out

    Even the outcomes of arbitration, considered a preferred alternative to litigation, are far from certain.

    A Senior Advocate of Nigeria/Queen’s Counsel, Prof. Fidelis Oditah, has been trying since 2011 to enforce an arbitral award in the case of AIHL vs Meridien.

    The enforcement was challenged all the way to the Supreme Court.

    “As we got a bailiff to execute judgment, the judgment debtor brought fresh proceedings in 2023 to restrain enforcement.

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    “That proceeding has not been argued. Since June 2025, there have been six adjournments.

    “No system can function like that or serve public interest if it is this ineffective,” Oditah regretted.

    A lawyer, Mr Afam Nwokedi, faulted the ugly practice of disobeying judgments by some agencies of government.

    He recalled that he was yet to get the benefits of a judgment his client got against the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.

    He said NNPC was yet to comply with a 2019 Supreme Court judgment, alleging that a petroleum tanker and other items ordered to be returned to his clients have not only been withheld but have now gone missing.

    Nwokedi was referring to the Supreme Court’s decision in Suit SC/167/12, between the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and Jamiu Adeniyi & five others, delivered on February 21, 2019.

    The case arose from the prosecution of the defendants for alleged vandalisation of an NNPC pipeline and illegal procurement of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).

    Five of the six defendants were initially convicted by the Federal High Court, Ilorin Division.

    Following the conviction, the trial court ordered that a Mac tanker with registration number XC 338 JJT, N3.35 million, and 17,000 litres of petrol tendered as exhibits be deposited at the Ilorin Depot of the NNPC and held in the custody of the Federal Government.

    However, the Court of Appeal later set aside the conviction, discharged and acquitted the defendants, and ordered the NNPC to return all seized items to them.

    Dissatisfied, the Federal Government appealed to the Supreme Court, but the apex court unanimously dismissed the appeal, affirming the Court of Appeal’s judgment and again directing NNPC to release the properties.

    Nwokedi said: “Despite the clear and unambiguous order of the Supreme Court, NNPC has refused to comply since 2019.”

    Several formal requests by his firm, Stillwaters Law Firm, have been ignored, he lamented.

    He further alleged that investigations revealed the brand-new tanker had disappeared from the Ilorin depot, accusing the oil company of deliberately frustrating the enforcement of the judgment.

    “NNPC has chosen to play the ostrich game, hoping the demand for compliance will simply fade away,” he said.

    According to Nwokedi, the affected clients have now instructed their lawyers to initiate a fresh action for damages and commence contempt proceedings against the leadership of NNPC Ltd, the Nigerian Pipelines and Storage Company (NPSC), and other relevant affiliates.

    “The rule of law demands obedience to court judgments. No institution is above the law,” he said.

    According to him, the government itself has benefited from Supreme Court judgments, so it is wrong for its agencies not to comply with decisions of the highest court in the land.

    How judgment enforcement is frustrated

    A legal expert, Dr Emmanuel Sani, who has been involved in many judgment enforcement actions, identified deep-seated legal, institutional, and political obstacles that undermine the process.

    He warned that many litigants still end up with “paper victories” long after securing favourable rulings from the courts.

    Sani said enforcement becomes most problematic once the judgment debtor is a government body, particularly agencies under the executive arm.

    “The most difficult aspect of it is where you get judgment against government entities, or a specific arm of government itself,” he said.

    According to him, matters involving the military, police and paramilitary agencies are especially challenging because conventional enforcement mechanisms are largely ineffective against security institutions.

    “When you are dealing with the executive arm of government, specifically the military, the police, or other paramilitary institutions, enforcement becomes almost impossible,” Sani noted.

    He explained that although the law provides several methods for enforcing judgments, including writs of fieri facias (fi fa), writs of possession, and garnishee proceedings, these mechanisms often fail in practice when applied to security agencies.

    Citing a case in which his client obtained a judgment against the Nigerian Navy for breach of fundamental rights, Sani questioned how such judgments could realistically be enforced.

    “How will you go and fi fa the property of the Navy, which are very critical security infrastructures?” he asked.

    He further illustrated the impracticality of deploying enforcement officers to military installations.

    “Will you carry policemen to go to Nigeria Navy headquarters to attach either a tank, a building or stationery?” he queried.

    According to him, court sheriffs lack the independent capacity to enforce judgments and must rely on the police for protection, creating a structural contradiction.

    “The court has no specialised armed guard. You still have to resort to the police,” he said.

    Judgments involving land or property recovery fare no better when government agencies are involved.

    Sani noted that writs of possession, which are ordinarily effective against private individuals, are rarely enforceable against government bodies.

    “The writ of possession is practically impossible when you are dealing with even a government agency,” he stated.

    Secrecy surrounding government accounts

    Garnishee proceedings, regarded as one of the most effective enforcement tools, are also frustrated by secrecy, particularly where government finances are concerned.

    “The challenge is how do you even get the account number or know the banker of a government agency?” Sani asked.

    He said government institutions often operate multiple accounts across different banks, shielded by administrative secrecy.

    “There are multiple accounts and too much secrecy around these things, even in the civil service,” he explained.

    Sani accused some banks of actively frustrating enforcement processes, especially when powerful corporate or government clients are involved.

    “The bank would rather protect its customer, especially if it’s a corporate customer,” he said.

    He alleged that banks sometimes hide accounts with substantial funds while declaring dormant or low-value accounts to the court.

    In some cases, he said, banks even tip off judgment debtors.

    “They even inform the company and say, ‘this is what to do,’” Sani alleged.

    “There is the secrecy of accounts and the paradox of bankers’ duty of confidentiality to their customers and the duty of disclosure imposed by law in a garnishee proceeding.

    “There are instances where a corporate body and a public institution outrightly close all their accounts with their bankers after such disclosure.”

    Attorney-General’s consent as a bottleneck

    Another major obstacle, according to Sani, is the statutory requirement for the consent of the Attorney-General before enforcing judgments against government entities.

    “You need his discretion for consent on whether or not to enforce. Of course, he will not likely give you consent to enforce against the government he represents,” Sani said.

    Although he acknowledged a recent Supreme Court decision that weakened the requirement, Sani said uncertainty remains.

    “It stands as the law, but still, it doesn’t show some degree of clarity,” he noted.

    Citing the case of CBN v Ochofe (2025) LPELR-80220 (SC), Sani said: “The Supreme Court upheld the requirements for the consent of the Attorney-General before funds of a public body can be attached.

    “However, it considers it a mere procedural requirement. In effect, if it is not raised timeously, it may be deemed waived.

    “That was the position of the majority of the panel. However, one of the justices in his minority decision considered the provision of Section 87 of the Sheriff and Civil Process Act – the requirement for prior consent of the A-G – as unconstitutional.”

    TSA and central bank hurdles

    The Treasury Single Account (TSA) policy has added another layer of difficulty.

    Agencies operating under the TSA keep their funds with the Central Bank of Nigeria, rather than commercial banks.

    “You cannot go to a commercial bank because of a single treasury. You will have to go to the Central Bank,” Sani explained.

    He described enforcement through the CBN as a near-impossible task.

    “That is another Herculean task, except you have insiders,” he said.

    Fraud and insider abuse

    Sani also recounted instances of fraudulent enforcement attempts driven by insider information, including efforts to enforce expired judgments.

    Such abuses, he said, further complicate genuine enforcement efforts and undermine trust in the system.

    “Government officials often demand that the judgment debtor part with as much as 50 per cent of the judgment sum to ensure payment, or they will frustrate every voluntary compliance effort,” he said.

    Culture of non-compliance

    Beyond legal and procedural challenges, Sani identified a lack of voluntary compliance as the underlying problem.

    “The bigger problem is compliance – voluntary compliance,” he said.

    While private companies often negotiate once their accounts are frozen, he said, government agencies typically ignore correspondence until enforcement becomes unavoidable.

    “You would write and write and write, nobody answers you,” he lamented.

    Appeals as a bane to judgment enforcement

    Legal practitioner and arbitrator, Bolaji Adeoye, raised concerns about how the appeal process in Nigeria is often abused to frustrate the enforcement of court judgments.

    He said: “The most difficult part of enforcement of court judgments has been the appeal process used as a decoy to frustrate and perpetually keep the judgment creditor from reaping the fruits of the hard-won judgment.”

    Adeoye explained that this abuse is enabled by the constitutional right of appeal, allowing debtors to indefinitely delay payment.

    “I have watched how judgments involving significant sums in commercial disputes continue to lie in the docket of the appellate courts,” he said.

    Even attempts to enforce judgment through garnishee proceedings or other legal mechanisms are often thwarted because debtors can cite “the pendency of an appeal or an application for Stay of Execution or Injunction pending Appeal.”

    He acknowledged reforms such as Order 4 Rule 6 of the Court of Appeal Rules 2021, Order 6 Rule 3(5) of the Supreme Court Rules 2024, and Section 55 of the Arbitration and Mediation Act 2023, which introduce stricter measures for enforcement and arbitral awards.

    However, he noted widespread non-compliance: “Most judgment debtors do not honour this provision,” which requires payment into a court-controlled account or provision of a bond to obtain a stay of execution.

    Adeoye further highlighted that administrative delays exacerbate the problem.

    “Appeals constitute a perfect strategy for frustrating enforcement of judgment in Nigeria because even if there is no formal order of stay of execution in place, a law-abiding judgment creditor will not proceed to enforce judgment in deference to the Court.”

    He also criticised slow prosecution by appellants, stating: “It is not uncommon to find that many judgment creditors dying during appeals,” as courts adjourn matters for procedural reasons, effectively prolonging the process.

    Grim statistics

    There is no centralised national success rate statistic for judgment enforcement in Nigeria, but available data points to relatively low enforcement in practice, especially in international/regional cases.

    Broader legal environment indicators suggest slow, costly enforcement procedures, which generally correlate with lower effective enforcement outcomes.

    For instance, Nigeria has the highest number of unenforced judgments from the ECOWAS Court of Justice in Africa.

    The Court’s Deputy Chief Registrar, Gaye Sowe, who presented enforcement statistics for the region, said many member states have a long record of not complying with court decisions, but Nigeria has the biggest backlog.

    According to Sowe, Nigeria has 125 cases in total. Out of these, 67 were dismissed, 10 have been enforced, and 48 are still not enforced.

    He added that the number of unenforced cases is now about 50.

    Sowe also explained that the Court has delivered 492 judgments across the 12 active ECOWAS member states, and 192 of them were classified as enforceable.

    A rough implication from the ECOWAS context is that if these figures are representative, enforcement might be less than 10 per cent for those specific regional court judgments, though this is not a general domestic enforcement rate.

    The World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business rankings consistently place Nigeria among the lowest-ranked countries, partly due to the difficulties in enforcing contracts and resolving commercial disputes through the judicial system.

    It says the average cost of enforcing a contract is relatively high, close to 39 per cent of the claim’s value, which can be a significant barrier for businesses, especially domestic SMEs.

    Economic implications

    According to Prof Oditah, the commercial implications of judicial delay are particularly severe for small and medium-sized enterprises, which lack the financial resources to sustain prolonged litigation.

    He added: “For these businesses, legal disputes over contracts, debts, or property rights can become existential threats when resolution takes years rather than months.

    “The resulting economic distortion privileges large corporations with greater litigation capacity while stifling the entrepreneurial activity that drives inclusive growth.

    “The economic costs of judicial gridlock in socio-economic matters thus represent both an immediate business constraint and a long-term development challenge.

    “Justice delayed is justice denied and encourages self-help.”

    Prof. Oditah pointed out that economically, the situation harms investment and impedes economic development.

    “If disputes are unresolved for decades, it means that a key ingredient of the rule of law is missing. The consequence is flight of investment, loss of revenue, unemployment, etc

    “The gridlock also creates weak and unaccountable institutions, which undermine our democracy.

    “Every one of us is familiar with the mantra ‘Go to Court’, because there is no expectation that justice can be obtained from the courts,” Oditah said.

    Osinbajo proposes way out

    Prof. Osinbajo believes the problem can be solved.

    He said: “Often, judgment creditors will abandon enforcement because of the high cost and the low success rate of the post-judgment process of identifying and seizing judgment assets. And that’s a problem.

    “What’s the point of going through a whole legal process, an involved legal process? And at the end of the day, you can’t enforce judgment.

    “Government debts, of course, are even more notoriously difficult to enforce, especially with the mandatory requirement of the Attorney-General’s consent before initiating garnishing proceedings to enforce a monetary judgment…

    “I believe that we can do more, generally speaking, to reform the failing system of enforcement of judgments.

    “The first is to remove the obstacles to enforcement. Reduced judicial discretion or automatic or default enforcement mechanisms is perhaps one of the ways that we can do this.

    “For instance, in the U.S., federal and in many states, once a judgment is entered, execution and garnishments are available without further judicial approval in most cases.

    “So, once you have the judgment entered, it’s almost self-executing from there on.

    “In Singapore, once judgment has been given, judgment is the final step. There’s no longer any judicial interference in the process.

    “The Singapore Supreme Court is said to be one of the most efficient in this respect. They have the sheriff of the Supreme Court who controls and supervises all specialised enforcement officers.

    “This centralised and professionalised system is one reason why domestic judgments in Singapore are considered to be some of the most efficient.

    “I think effective enforcement is a function of executive will. Where executive will is lacking, effective enforcement will also be lacking.

    “The executive branch must see enforcement as a priority. The constitution clearly makes the enforcement of laws, including the judgment of the courts, the responsibility of the executive.

    “I will suggest the establishment by law of a well-trained and armed judgment enforcement corps to replace bailiffs.

    “The law should contain clear operational guidelines, autonomy to act without interference from the police, from security agencies or the military or other armed services, so that this is an enforcement force by itself.

    “See, if you cannot enforce judgments of the court, you can’t really speak of justice.”

    Okutepa: political will needed

    Okutepa reinforced the need for political will.

    He said: “There is an urgent need to address the frustrations in enforcing judgments in Nigeria.

    “The relevant authorities must address the frustrating antics of some lawyers to the enforcement of judgments in Nigeria, particularly lawyers working with the government, and for the government who employ all manner of antics to ensure that judgments of courts are deliberately not enforced.

    “They use all manner of deliberate deception in practice, including filing frivolous applications in the courts to undermine the enforcement of judgments.

    “The Nigerian Bar Association, the Body of Benchers, the General Council of the Bar, the Body of Senior Advocates of Nigeria and of course the relevant legal and professional bodies need to urgently see to it that judgments creditors in Nigeria enjoy the fruits of their judgments without any further obstacles and obstruction by legalistic antics by lawyers that are not rooted in the best interest of justice.

    “This is my appeal. Nigerians do not get immediate remedies under the current justice system.”

    Whether those who benefit from the system will want a change remains to be seen.

    A former NBA President, Olumide Akpata, expressed such fears, warning that reform would be difficult without strong executive leadership.

    He expressed concern that beneficiaries of a broken system may resist change.

    “We’re in a catch-22 situation,” Akpata said, describing a paradox where reform is needed but blocked by those who benefit from dysfunction.

    A lawmaker’s move to intervene

    A senator representing Lagos West, Dr Idiat Oluranti Adebule, is pushing for a sweeping amendment of Nigeria’s Sheriff and Civil Process Act, describing the 1945 law as grossly outdated and unfit for a modern, digital justice system.

    Adebule said the Act is “manifestly outdated” and “disconnected from present realities,” noting that it was enacted during colonial rule and has remained largely unchanged despite advances in technology and legal practice.

    She highlighted absurd provisions such as a clause prescribing 45 kobo as a monthly allowance for debtor prisoners, calling it a stark symbol of how obsolete the law has become.

    Adebule stressed the need to align the justice system with digital reforms already adopted by courts, including e-filing and electronic service of processes, which currently lack firm statutory backing.

    “This amendment will bridge that gap and align our legislation with the realities of the digital economy,” she said.

    A major focus of her argument was the difficulty of enforcing judgments against government agencies.

    Under the current law, monetary judgments cannot be enforced without the consent of the Attorney-General, a requirement she described as a serious barrier to justice.

    “Judgment creditors find it exceedingly difficult to obtain such consent and often abandon their claims entirely. This defeats the purpose of judicial awards and encourages a culture of disobedience to court orders,” she warned.

    She linked the issue to human rights standards, citing Article 8 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and cautioned: “When we create structures that make it nearly impossible to enforce judgments, we violate this right.”

    The bill also proposes reforms to modernise the role and operations of court sheriffs, addressing long-standing complaints of inefficiency and inconsistency.

    According to Adebule, the reform is essential to restoring confidence in the judiciary. “This amendment is not just a legal adjustment; it is part of rebuilding trust in our institutions,” she said.

    Lawmakers broadly backed the proposal, with Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin describing the arguments as compelling and referring the bill to the Judiciary Committee for further consideration.

    Lawyer proffers other solutions

    Legal expert Dr Sani believes one of the major problems that hinders prompt compliance by public institutions of government agencies is the fact that there are no budgetary provisions for such contingencies.

    He suggested: “A repository and registry of judgment should be created and administered by the relevant offices of the Attorney General.

    “The registry should be saddled with the responsibility of creating a system of registration and authentication of valid judgments against government and public institutions, and also create a structured and self-auditing system of compliance in coordination with the relevant ministry of finance for every fiscal year.

    “Payments of judgment debts should then be made within the budgetary provision or framework, having regard to the priority of claims and the limitations period for each judgment.

    “Such an administrative system sanctioned by statute will effectively cure the mischief that the requirement of Attorney-General’s consent under the extant dispensation seeks to prevent.

    “The Sheriff and Civil Process Act should be amended in clear terms by removing the apparent unconstitutional provision for Attorney-General’s consent.

    “The provision should be supplanted with a new provision that creates an Administrative procedure.”

    Fed Govt commits to reform

    Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Prince Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), acknowledged the challenges, promising that the Federal Government would implement the needed reforms initiated by his ministry.

    “Public trust in the justice system is central to the existence of the legal profession. Without trust, the system cannot function, and the work we do loses meaning,” he admitted.

    Acknowledging the pressures facing the justice system, the Attorney-General identified structural weaknesses, gaps in process, capacity and funding, as well as behavioural.

    “Under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu, the Federal Government has prioritised the strengthening of the justice sector as part of the Renewed Hope Agenda,” Fagbemi said.

    While Fagbemi publicly affirms the importance of enforcing judgments and upholding the rule of law, civil society pressure has highlighted perceived gaps between rhetoric and practice, especially where judgment enforcement implicates government interests.

    Enforcement remains a key litmus test for his role as Chief Law Officer of the Federation.