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  • Inside the silent mental health crisis undermining global food security

    Inside the silent mental health crisis undermining global food security

    Across the globe, farmers—the hands that feed billions—are under unprecedented strain. With insecurity, failed harvests, and mounting debt pushing many farmers to breaking point, crushing economic pressures, unpredictable weather extremes, and the emotional toll of long, isolating hours are now fuelling a surge in mental-health distress — from escalating anxiety and depression to rising cases of suicide. From Nigeria to the UK and India, research reveals that this hidden epidemic is not only devastating rural communities but also threatening the very sustainability of global food systems, putting global food security at serious risk, reports DANIEL ESSIET

    A global food system under strain

    Across the world, the future of food hangs in a delicate balance. Even as farms produce more than ever before and agrifood systems continue to power economies, the people who make this possible—the farmers—are under unprecedented strain. This is one of the striking realities revealed in the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)’s Statistical Yearbook 2024, a publication that not only tracks global agricultural performance but also exposes the quiet emergencies threatening its sustainability.

    According to the Yearbook, the value of global agricultural production has surged by 89 per cent in real terms over the past two decades, reaching $3.8 trillion in 2022. Yet this impressive growth masks troubling undercurrents. Agriculture’s contribution to global economic output has remained almost unchanged, and the sector’s workforce is shrinking rapidly—from 40 per cent of the global labour force in 2000 to just 26 per cent in 2022. This dwindling workforce, experts warn, could imperil food supplies unless agriculture becomes a more attractive, healthier and safer occupation.

    The silent mental health crisis in farming communities

    But the greatest threat may not be economic. Farmers worldwide are confronting a silent yet devastating mental health crisis—one that researchers say is too pressing to ignore. From crushing workloads and unpredictable weather to tightening regulations and isolation, the pressures facing farmers have created conditions ripe for anxiety, depression and burnout. The United Kingdom offers a revealing case study. A report submitted to Parliament by the University of Oxford, Mental Health Risks to Farmers in the UK, paints a stark picture of the sector’s wellbeing. It found farmers to be at significantly higher risk of mental ill-health and suicide than the general population, citing 102 suicides among agricultural workers in England and Wales in 2019 alone. Similar concerns have been recorded in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    Notably, women—whose roles on farms often go unrecognised—face their own set of challenges. To address this gap, the University of Exeter has launched a national wellbeing survey specifically targeting women living and working in farming communities. Project lead Dr Rebecca Wheeler, working with the Farming Community Network, said the initiative seeks to understand not only the difficulties farmers face but also what supports their health and happiness.

    Another major study by Exeter’s Centre for Rural Policy Research, involving more than 15,000 agricultural workers, reveals the scale of the crisis. Over half reported moderate or severe pain or discomfort, 31 per cent experienced anxiety or depression, and 16 per cent had suffered a non-fatal injury in the past five years. Many also struggled with exhaustion, paperwork, financial instability, erratic weather and disease outbreaks. Wheeler described the findings as profoundly worrying, noting that today’s farming environment combines physical, emotional and financial pressures in ways that make the sector increasingly vulnerable. Without urgent reforms, she warned, the world risks losing the very people who keep its food systems alive.

    According to the study, long hours, volatile markets and the isolating nature of rural life all play a role in the declining wellbeing of farmers. Many now work more than 60 hours a week, often in solitude, while battling rising production costs, uncertain subsidies and the emotional strain of caring for animals through disease outbreaks and extreme weather. Prof. Matt Lobley, co-author of the University of Exeter study, said the findings should serve as a wake-up call to policymakers. “This research provides compelling evidence of the need to understand and address both physical and mental health issues among people living and working in agriculture. A sustainable and resilient food system requires a healthy agricultural workforce able to maintain and improve production without detriment to themselves and their families,” he said.

    As farmers navigate the pressures of a rapidly changing industry—from climate shocks to shifting environmental policies—experts argue that proactive support cannot be delayed. Recommendations include improved data collection, better rural healthcare services, mental-health first-aid training and closer government collaboration with trusted community networks. Without such interventions, they warn, farmer wellbeing will continue to worsen, posing long-term risks to the sustainability of the UK’s entire food production system.

    A deepening crisis across the global south

    Similar concerns are emerging across developing countries, where falling productivity is becoming increasingly apparent. Researchers at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University found that farmers are struggling to keep pace with global demand. Their analysis shows that growth in farm productivity—measured through total factor productivity—is far below the levels required to maintain adequate global food supplies. In many developed nations, farm yields have even plateaued.

    In the UK, the Farm Safety Foundation found that 91 per cent of British farmers consider poor mental health the “biggest hidden problem” in the industry. A survey of 754 farmers in September 2024 revealed declining mental wellbeing across the sector. The study also showed that farmers worked even longer hours in 2024 than in 2023—far above the averages in other industries. The charity highlighted agriculture’s grim safety record, citing Office for National Statistics data showing 44 suicides among agricultural workers in England and Wales in 2022. Dr. Stephanie Berkeley of the Foundation noted: “Farming has always been one of the most demanding industries, but the added strain of long hours, rural isolation and financial insecurity is putting farmers at risk.”

    The situation is equally dire in India. According to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), at least one person working in the farm sector died by suicide every hour in 2023—a stark indicator of the economic stress gripping rural communities. Maharashtra accounted for the highest proportion of victims (38.5 per cent), followed by Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu—regions once known for agricultural abundance but now marked by despair. Although the total number of suicides fell slightly compared with 2022, the scale of the crisis remained severe. In 2023, 10,786 people in the farm sector died by suicide, representing 6.3 per cent of all suicide cases nationwide. Of these, 43 per cent were farmers, while the rest were farm labourers. Nigeria’s farmers face many of the same pressures. Rising stress is linked to unpredictable weather, fluctuating crop yields, loan repayment burdens and volatile market conditions. The Nation learnt that many farmers are experiencing declining quality of life and growing difficulty meeting family obligations.

    According to the Chief Executive of Cato Foods, Pelumi Aribisala, the mental health crisis among farmers is a complex and worsening problem. He explained that crop failures, inflation, rising input costs, the effects of climate change and outbreaks such as avian flu have trapped many farmers in cycles of debt and uncertainty. These pressures, he said, are driving growing rates of depression and anxiety among farmers. Aribisala stressed that this silent crisis demands urgent attention and called for systemic support—especially access to affordable land, capital, climate adaptation resources and health insurance—to protect farmers and secure the future of food production.

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    At the core of the mental health crisis gripping farmers is a deep and growing sense of economic uncertainty—one that leaves many feeling trapped, isolated and overwhelmed. Agricultural expert Pelumi Aribisala captured this reality through recent events in the cassava sector. “Take this year, for instance,” he said. “Many people invested heavily in cassava last year, only to lose everything this year—really lose everything.” The contrast is staggering: what delivered a 125 per cent profit margin the previous year has now swung to losses of more than 300 percent. “It means all the investment, including last year’s profits, has just disappeared,” he added. As a result, farmers are unable to manage their workforce or pay labour costs, plunging many into distress.

    Aribisala stressed that such economic shocks carry serious mental health implications. “When we talk about mental health, we’re talking about emotions, psychology and a whole range of interconnected factors. These pressures can lead to depression and other significant issues,” he noted. He recounted troubling cases from the livestock sector, especially in poultry and piggery. “A few years back at Oke-Aro Farm Settlement, many farmers lost their pig farms. Some ended up in the hospital, and tragically, some did not survive. More recently, a farmer developed a partial stroke after losing everything to infections,” he said.

    Compounding these stresses is a crippling lack of affordable financing. Aribisala revealed that many farmers secure loans at interest rates as high as 30 to 50 per cent. For those unable to access formal credit, the situation is even worse: “Some are borrowing from loan sharks at monthly interest rates of 4.5, 6 or even 12 per cent. When you do the math, that can amount to nearly 60 per cent annually.” Such financial traps push farmers into cycles of debt and despair.

    He emphasised that farmers, too often romanticised as resilient by default, are ordinary people facing extraordinary pressures. “Farmers are people too; they aren’t superheroes,” he said. While suicide statistics from India are stark and well documented, Aribisala noted that similar incidents occur in Nigeria—cases that seldom make it into official reports. Beyond economic pressures, farmers grapple with taxes, physical risks and the sheer unpredictability of their work.

    Since 2019, concerns have grown over how COVID-19 lockdowns worsened farmers’ mental health. A joint study by researchers from Ilorin and Federal University Oye-Ekiti found that farmers reported elevated stress, headaches, anxiety and depression during the pandemic. With insecurity, climate shocks, failed harvests and mounting debt, many Nigerian farmers are now operating at breaking point.

    Protecting farmers, securing the future

    For Kolawole Adeniji, Chief Executive of Niji Farms—one of Nigeria’s largest cassava operations spanning 7,000 acres—the pressures are relentless. He must constantly make high-stakes decisions while facing insecurity, erratic weather, rising costs and volatile markets. Kidnapping fears for farm workers add another layer of distress. “Many farmers are grappling with serious mental health issues, teetering on the brink of losing both their businesses and their hope,” he warned. Adeniji said the signs of psychological strain are visible: changes in routine, reduced care for crops and livestock, rising accidents and deteriorating farm conditions. Severe depression and anxiety often stem from factors outside farmers’ control—crop failures caused by weather extremes, sudden policy shifts and the influx of cheaper imports. These financial blows, he noted, are directly tied to worsening mental health.

    For Babatunde Olarewaju, Lead Strategist at FutuX Agri-consult, the crisis is especially pronounced in rural communities, where mental illness frequently goes undiagnosed. “The mental pain often shows up as physical illness. People say, ‘He has malaria,’ but it’s actually depression,” he explained. The consequences can be fatal. “Some even suffer strokes from the shock. I’ve also come across cases of suicide—people hanging themselves when they feel utterly hopeless.”

    While farming can be deeply fulfilling, the pressures and risks are immense. Stakeholders agree that this escalating mental health crisis is not merely individual—it is systemic, rooted in economic instability and policy failures. They are calling for comprehensive reforms: stronger economic safety nets, improved rural infrastructure, support for climate resilience, and firm action against insecurity. Without these interventions, the wellbeing of farmers—and the sustainability of the food system they support—remains in peril.

    Farmer Samson Ogbole, who runs the innovative Soilless Farm in Ogun State, is one of Nigeria’s leading voices in hydroponics—a farming technique that allows crops to thrive in nutrient-rich water rather than soil. Despite being a pioneer in high-tech agriculture, Ogbole has not been immune to burnout. Years of working in emotionally demanding situations—combined with the pressure of proving that technology can transform food production—have taken a toll. He continues to advocate for the adoption of science and technology in agriculture, urging Nigerians to replicate natural conditions in controlled environments to boost yields, accelerate production, and reduce labour. Yet he has watched promising agri-tech startups collapse under crushing debt, unable to manage the steep financial and operational demands of modern farming.

    Every day, Ogbole confronts challenges ranging from unstable market prices and production deadlines to erratic weather, disease outbreaks, physical stress, and the relentless ticking of the agricultural calendar. To support both seasoned farmers and newcomers, he has expanded his mentorship programmes. More recently, he has trained staff to recognise signs of stress, anxiety, and depression in farmers and link them to qualified mental health professionals. His organisation also hosted a forum dedicated to helping farmers recognise early signs of poor mental health, maintain emotional well-being, and seek help when needed. The Soilless Farm Lab designed the event to create a safe space where trainees, farmers, and their families could openly discuss their struggles. “A healthy mind is just as crucial as a healthy body, especially for those who nourish our nation,” Ogbole said. “For too long, farming challenges have been viewed only through the lens of yield and profit. Mental health is the hidden crop that requires our attention.”

    He noted that the lab is committed to long-term change. “We’ve woven mental health awareness into our regular training sessions. It’s now part of agricultural education, not a one-off event.” Citing an alarming Nigerian Bureau of Statistics study showing that over 50 per cent of youths experience mental health challenges while less than 10 per cent seek help—largely due to stigma and inadequate resources—he urged farmers to break the silence. “We encourage everyone in our community to prioritise mental health and seek help without hesitation. By fostering these conversations, we hope to build a culture of resilience.”

    Recently, the Director-General of the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR), Dr. Joseph Ochogwu, called on policymakers and religious leaders to strengthen the implementation of Nigeria’s livestock policy to promote peace, security, and national unity. Speaking in Abuja at the Second Quarter Policy Review Dialogue, themed From Policy to Practice, he highlighted the central role the livestock sector plays in the country’s conflict dynamics. He described the farmer-herder clashes as a “complex risk system” shaped by climate pressures, demographic changes, weak regulations, governance gaps, and cross-border movements—factors that demand a coordinated and data-driven response. Ochogwu urged improved coordination at all levels of governance, conflict-sensitive implementation strategies, inclusive stakeholder participation, and real-time mon                                            itoring using data on conflict hotspots and pastoralist movement.

    As global temperatures rise, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) warns that more workers will face heat stress, urging proactive measures such as planning with forecasts and early warning systems. Its report, Heat at Work, estimates that stronger safety measures could save up to $361 billion worldwide and reveals that heat stress causes nearly 19,000 deaths annually while exposing over 70 per cent of the global workforce to dangerous conditions.

    Climate-related pressures are also fuelling mental health crises abroad. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) recently reported rising anxiety and stress among British farmers due to more intense flooding and droughts. Senior scientist Dan Blake noted that declining farmer confidence is tied to worsening extreme weather, compounded by financial strain, policy uncertainty, and social isolation. A separate report by the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) found that climate anxiety is now “almost universal” among British farmers, with nearly all linking their distress to erratic weather and poor harvests—symptoms of a farming sector struggling under the weight of climate change.

  • Experts say $20.98bn FX inflows signal growth for businesses, economy

    Experts say $20.98bn FX inflows signal growth for businesses, economy

    With Nigeria’s oil revenue underperforming, the surge in forex inflows is providing vital buffers for the economy. Central Bank of Nigeria-led reforms have attracted US$20.98 billion in foreign capital in the first ten months of the year. Experts say the development will strengthen FX liquidity, improve businesses’ access to foreign exchange, and signal a clear resurgence in investor confidence, with expectations of even greater inflows in the months ahead, reports Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE

    The sustained growth in forex inflows into Nigeria’s economy reflects both financial sector stability and rising investor confidence in the domestic market. In the first ten months of 2025, foreign capital inflows reached US$20.98 billion, representing a 70% increase over total inflows for 2024 and a remarkable 428% surge compared to the US$3.9 billion recorded in 2023. This trend highlights growing interest in Nigerian assets from both domestic and global investors.

    The uptick in capital inflows is closely linked to reforms introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under Governor Olayemi Cardoso, who assumed office in October 2023. Prioritizing economic resilience and investment appeal, the CBN implemented policies aimed at rebuilding Nigeria’s financial buffers. Key measures included currency reforms, unification of exchange rates, and the clearance of over US$7 billion in FX backlogs. These initiatives improved transparency in the forex market, enhanced investor confidence, and positioned Nigeria as an attractive destination for capital.

    The reforms have also drawn commendation from multilateral institutions such as the World Bank, which described the interventions as bold steps toward sustainable economic growth. Concurrently, Nigeria’s sovereign risk spread has fallen to its lowest level since January 2020, reversing premiums accrued during the pandemic and previous economic strains. CBN Governor Cardoso emphasised that the bank’s consistent unification of multiple exchange rate windows and the elimination of the multi-billion-dollar FX backlog have restored credibility to the market, enabling businesses to plan with confidence. The resulting surge in foreign capital inflows underscores a clear resurgence in investor trust, reflecting the effectiveness of deliberate policy measures aimed at sustaining economic growth and strengthening Nigeria’s financial stability.

    Views from stakeholders

    While US President Donald Trump’s widening trade war has taken emerging markets on a wild ride, Nigeria has quietly held its own, attracting foreign capital reassured by currency reforms and other measures designed to revive the economy of Africa’s most-populous nation. “Nigeria appears to be back in business as long-awaited economic reforms take shape,” said Emre Akcakmak, portfolio manager at East Capital. Key measures include improved currency liquidity, leeway for investors to repatriate their profit, and the stable naira. “We feel the Central Bank of Nigeria will continue to stem any sharp appreciation of the naira to limit profit taking from the fast money community,” Akcakmak said.

    “Portfolio inflows have likely been supported by improved confidence amid key structural reforms, better FX market functioning and moderating dollar-naira volatility, as well as the still-robust nominal yield buffer,” said Samir Gadio, head of Africa strategy at Standard Chartered Plc told Bloomberg. “Besides, Nigeria’s local market is seen as less correlated with global risk conditions than more liquid EM peers,” he added.

    The Nigeria’s economy and businesses will have so many things to cheer in 2025 and the impact of the economic reforms in FX market, exchange and huge budge outlays begin to pay off for them. Cardoso said story of Nigeria’s economic recovery cannot be appreciated without first recalling where “we started, because the reforms of today are borne out of a determination to change the conditions we met.” “When this leadership team assumed office, our economy faced severe macroeconomic distortions. Inflation was surging. FX liquidity had evaporated. External reserves were non-existent. Trust in economic management had weakened. Unorthodox monetary practices had eroded confidence. Businesses could not plan or price. Investors could not commit.”

    Continuing, he said: “The foreign exchange market was in paralysis. A backlog of over US$7 billion in unmet FX obligations undermined market integrity. The spread between official and parallel market rates had blown out to more than 60%, creating distortions and rent‑seeking opportunities.

    “High inflation had become normalised, stuck in double digits for most of the last 35 years and risen to 34.6 per cent as of November 2024. Food prices were crippling households. Liquidity conditions were unstable. Many businesses faced an existential threat.”

    Also, the banking sector, though fundamentally sound, was at risk of being dragged into distress by a deteriorating macro environment and inconsistent policy signals. “This was the Nigeria we inherited, not one standing at the edge of a macroeconomic precipice, but one that had already gone over the cliff. It is important to recall this not for drama, but for context: the progress we cautiously acknowledge today is meaningful only when measured against the depth of the challenges that came before it,” he said.

    Achieving economic turnaround

    According to Cardoso, over the past 12 months, Nigeria’s economy has transitioned from crisis management to laying the groundwork for a sustainable recovery. “After nearly a decade in which real GDP growth averaged about two per cent, reforms have restored momentum and confidence in our broad macroeconomic environment. Our economy grew by 4.23 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, the strongest pace in four years, driven by improvements in telecommunications, financial services, and oil production.

    “More importantly in terms of long-term stability, inflation, while still high, has moderated consistently. From a peak of 34.6% in November 2024, it has more than halved to 16.05 per cent in October 2025. This marks seven consecutive months of disinflation. Food inflation, the largest single component of the basket, fell to 13.12 per cent in October, down from 16.87 per cent in September and 21.87 per cent in August,” he said.

    This significant, steady decline in inflation is restoring real purchasing power for households and businesses. It also demonstrates disciplined execution and Nigeria’s return to orthodox monetary policy. “We continue with determination to bring inflation down further. The current double-digit rate cannot be acceptable. Price stability is the foundation of sustainable growth. Our transition to an inflation‑targeting framework is gaining traction. We have improved data analytics, strengthened communication, and ended monetary financing of fiscal deficits. These actions have strengthened monetary policy transmission and anchored expectations.

    “Our models project continued disinflation in 2026, helped by stronger domestic production, improved FX liquidity, and more disciplined liquidity management. As inflation moderates and becomes firmly anchored, we will calibrate the policy rate in line with evolving data,” he added.

    “Domestic and international observers alike have noted Nigeria’s “huge turnaround” in macroeconomic management. Our commitment remains clear: monetary policy will stay evidence-based, data-driven, and unwavering in its pursuit of price stability”.

    Bigger, stronger rebased GDP

    Nigeria’s hope of achieving $1 trillion economy by 2030 will gain significant support from the banking sector. Nigeria’s Statistician-General, Adeyemi Adeniran, had explained how the economy fared in the rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. He said: “In nominal terms, the rebased GDP for 2019 stood at N205.09 trillion N213.63 trillion in 2020, N243.30 trillion in 2021, N274.23 trillion in 2022, N314.02 trillion in 2023, and N372.82 trillion in 2024.”

    The NBS noted that in 2019, the rebased nominal GDP at basic prices represented an increase of 41.7 per cent over the nominal GDP of 2019 of the old base year (2010), 39 per cent in 2020, 38.7 per cent in 2021, 36.1 per cent in 2022, 34.6 per cent in 2023 and 35.4 per cent in 2024. “The results show that the structure of the Nigerian economy has changed significantly with a rise in the share of agriculture and services sectors and a fall in the share of the industries sector in nominal terms, indicating a shift in the structure of the Nigerian economy than earlier reported,” the NBS boss said. Adeniran further explained that the rebasing allows the country to better reflect the realities of the economy. “It’s not just about a bigger number but about accurate, timely data that supports smarter policy and economic planning,” he said.

    Banking sector contributions

    A well-recapitalised banking sector is undeniably crucial for the growth of the domestic economy. Hence, Cardoso advised banks to prepare for a new round of recapitalisation to ensure they have the necessary capital to support the Federal Government’s plan to achieve $1 trillion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) target by 2030. He said that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic plan aims to reach a $1 trillion GDP by 2030, emphasising that the current bank capitalisation is insufficient to support such a large economic scale.

    Cardoso asked: “Will Nigerian banks have sufficient capital relative to the financial system’s needs in servicing a $1 trillion economy in the near future? In my opinion, the answer is “No!” unless we take action. That action was the ongoing recapitalisation of banks, meant to prepare them for expansion and attract big ticket transactions to support economic growth.”

    The Policy Advisory Council report on the national economy had set an ambitious goal of achieving a GDP of $1 trillion, with clearly defined priority areas and strategies. Adeniran revealed that incorporating new and emerging sectors, updating consumption baskets and refining data collection methods helped in producing a more complete picture of national output.

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    Aliyu Ilias, developmental economist, noted that several sectors have previously remained un-captured in official data, particularly entertainment. “By rebasing our GDP now, included those areas properly. This new visibility will make Nigeria appear much stronger to foreign investors, which will naturally help us attract more capital,” he said.

    He explained that the exercise will also reveal untapped economic potential and guide government resource allocation. “It will show where we are strongest structurally, such as in mining or other emerging sectors. That insight will help the government focus its efforts more strategically.” “Finally,” he added, “it will support economic policy formulation, helping us align our strategy with the reality on the ground. We will know exactly where to put more effort.”

    Ilias explained that while this statistical adjustment does not instantly generate new revenue, it creates a more reliable framework for fiscal planning, investment strategies, and development interventions. For him, by aligning economic data with current realities, the government and private sector can more effectively target policies that stimulate job creation, improve productivity, and sustain long-term growth.

    Seun Onigbinde, director of Civic Technology Group BudgIT, said the previous rebasing underscored the substantial impact of policy changes in the services and ICT sectors, such as telecommunications deregulation and banking sector recapitalisation. “Rebasing of the GDP must reflect changes in the economy, which are a product of public policies over time,” he added.

    Rebasing is also critical for domestic policy. It allows the government to better assess tax collection efficiency, measure sectoral contributions, and design social programmes that are data-driven and results-oriented. Gabriel Okeowo, country director for BudgIT, said, “Rebasing allows planners to be more intentional about solving Nigeria’s biggest problems: poverty, infrastructure gaps, and job creation.”

    Lagos-based economist, Nelson Adedeji, explained that despite the bump in GDP size, the rebasing is never a silver bullet. “We must acknowledge that genuine economic growth extends beyond statistical adjustments. For ordinary Nigerians to experience meaningful improvement in living standards, the President Tinubu administration must complement GDP rebasing with substantive policies addressing infrastructure deficits, security challenges, agricultural productivity, manufacturing capacity, and the overall ease of doing business,” he stated.

  • Inside unregulated world of non-medical personnel who run skin-whitening drips, spas

    Inside unregulated world of non-medical personnel who run skin-whitening drips, spas

    The demand for fairer skin or skin-whitening driven primarily by women — and to a lesser extent, men has assumed another dimension. Among the various methods explored for skin whitening is the use of glutathione infusion, a method health practitioners warn could have dangerous implications. ALAO ABIODUN, in this piece, sheds light on the associated health risks, unsafe dermatological Inside unregulated world of non-medical personnel who run skin-whitening drips, spas practices, impacts, and how spas are exploiting client’s desperation for profit.

    The quest to look radiant and beautiful prompted 27-year-old Precious to visit a luxurious spa situated in the Lekki area of Lagos State. For Precious, she was motivated by the perceived social advantages and elevated status associated with a fairer skin. Her routine included intravenous glutathione infusions, a popular but controversial skin and anti-ageing treatment.

    Her self-esteem took a nosedive whenever she compared herself to other light-skinned women. Her insecurity was so overwhelming that, despite her fears of non-medical personnel injecting people, she decided to go for the intravenous glutathione infusions.

    Like Precious, many other women now want more. More bosoms, more buttocks, more Coca-cola-shaped bodies, beautiful and popping skin. But this has come at a cost for some people.

    The increasing quest for beauty through skin-lightening products has left most of its users with more dangerous health concerns such as hypertension, diabetes, cancer, tumours, etc. The process of skin lightening is a thriving procedure that comes in the form of soaps, creams, lasers, pills, and injectables.

    The trend of skin-lightening has eaten into the very crust of Nigeria’s high-class society. A number of spas and wellness centers in Nigeria pride themselves as the go-to place for skin-lightening.

    Why the craze?

    So why are some women willing to go to the extreme to alter their natural complexions? The reasons might be as complicated as the risks. Different skin-lightening beauty methods focus on faster and relatively thorough results, while covering up or downplaying the dangers, which leave the body open to grave health repercussions.

    Notably, the skin-lightening industry has always been a robust one, and for decades, bleaching creams were its core. However, the resurgence of intravenous glutathione infusions in Spas and Wellness centers has raised concerns among the medical community, especially regarding safety, dosage, and the lack of regulation around the practice in Nigeria. They are worried by the ethical implications of the non-regulated treatment, mostly administered at Spas.

    Enter Glutathione injection treatment

    Glutathione is an antioxidant that is naturally produced in our bodies. It is generated by our liver and has multiple responsibilities like repairing and building skin tissues, boosting immunity, slowing down the aging process, neutralising free radicals, and acting as an anti-cancer agent.

    It is also known as the “mother of all antioxidants”. As one gets older, the production of glutathione decreases, which, in turn, accelerates the process of aging. Glutathione injection treatment is very simple. It is quite similar to getting a vaccine shot. The dermatologist will prepare the glutathione injection by mixing multiple chemicals based on the skin type, colour, and other factors.

    When used intravenously for cosmetic purposes, it is said to lighten skin by interfering with melanin production. However, checks by The Nation revealed that there is no scientific consensus supporting its efficacy or safety when used in this way.

    The injection is administered to one’s body through his or her vein. A dermatologist will determine the frequency of the injection. It is usually three times a week in the initial days and then reduced to one day a week. It is believed that one can start seeing the results six to eight weeks after the treatment.

    Just like any other cosmetic treatment, there are a few risks and side effects associated with the glutathione injection treatment. Experts say the severity of the side effects is dependent on the administered dosage.

    In case of very high dosage, there are chances of blood poisoning and kidney failure.

    A Lagos-based dermatologist, Kemisola Ahmed said: “It is largely known that IV glutathione has benefits as an antioxidant, but it hasn’t been proven in any randomised clinical trials that it is safe or effective for skin lightening.

    “After an infusion, your skin may look temporarily lighter, and you probably feel better.”

    Beyond the lack of substantial evidence, she’s of the opinion that there’s an inherent danger in letting someone inject an unregulated fluid into your veins

    She said: “I can’t even wrap my head around how people have normalised letting non-health practitioners inject fluids into their body system. What if there’s an immediate allergic reaction to it? How did we get this careless with our own lives?”

    In the Philippines, glutathione IVs were ubiquitous in neighbourhood spas until 2011 when reports of serious skin rashes, thyroid issues, and kidney failure led to a ban by the country’s government, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued a warning that injectable skin lighteners were unsafe.

    Data from World Health Organization (WHO) reveals that Nigeria has a skin bleaching prevalence rate of 77%. This is the highest in the world. Many persons are unaware of the dangers posed to their lives by the intravenous glutathione infusions they allow into their body system.

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    Dermatologists have consistently advised that little enhanced self-esteem for the sake of aesthetics is not worth the risk of bleaching the skin.

    “I’ve never seen a society that encourages quackery this much. People with zero training have multi-million naira wellness brands in Nigeria, and after chronic exposure to these shambolic health excursions, they will come to the hospital, expecting real doctors to perform miracles.” Samson Adeife, a medical doctor, said.

    A case of body dysmorphia?

    Body dysmorphia could also be another issue fuelling the uptake of aesthetically-pleasing outlook. This is when someone has an obsessive focus on the way they look and this is common among women.

    With varied reasons for the skin and body enhancement, many people go through the intravenous glutathione infusion process and other medications like pills to have their desired light skin.

    Disturbingly, some expectant mothers have caught on the vogue as they take in medications or engage in the glutathione infusion process in an attempt to bleach the skin of their unborn babies.

    Body modification is an age-old practice which has taken on new dimensions in recent years due to factors like body shaming, peer pressure, media influences, global beauty trends, and the desire for the “perfect” body.

    This has led to a rise in botched surgeries and even fatalities, especially when performed by non-professionals or quacks. The government’s response to these issues has been relatively passive, allowing the problem to grow and enabling entry of more unqualified practitioners.

    Our correspondent, who visited popular spas and wellness outlets in Ikeja and Lekki area of Lagos state, noticed a new wave of ‘special’ lightning products and the glutathione infusion patronage by women.

    For these spas, their glutathione IV process begins from N35,000. Some others charge from N70,000.

    The market for skin-lightening products is vast, with an economy of billions of dollars per annum globally. Among the various methods explored for skin health, oral and topical supplementation with glutathione has gained attention due to their proven efficacy and favorable safety profile compared to other approaches.

    The increasing patronage for glutathione infusion is not peculiar to Nigeria alone. Findings by Channel 4 News recently laid bare the alarming scale of unregulated intravenous glutathione drips being used in the United Kingdom (UK) for skin whitening, lightening and brightening.

    The investigation found over 300 beauty salons across the country have been found offering these cosmetic procedures – many without any medical supervision – and promoting them on social media to vulnerable consumers.

    These invasive treatments are being marketed with misleading claims and in some cases, administered in beauty settings lacking hygiene or safety standards. Consumers have reported suffering serious side effects including anaphylaxis requiring hospitalisation, kidney strain and infections.

    Despite the dangers, these procedures remain entirely unregulated in the UK, and injectable products like glutathione are still being sold with ease online and in-person.

    Ian Andrews, Head of Environmental Health at the Chartered Institute of Environmental Health (CIEH), said: “The use of these procedures, many without medical supervision, is extremely concerning and we would really welcome clarity from the Government on when further legislation will be consulted on because existing legislation is outdated.”

    Ashton Collins, Director at Save Face, said: “We are extremely concerned about the increase in the availability of glutathione IV drips in the UK. These treatments are not licensed for cosmetic use here and pose significant health risks.

    “Unfortunately, they are being offered in unregulated, unsterilised environments without proper clinical oversight. Prescribers and providers must understand that prescribing unlicensed medicines like glutathione outside of a genuine clinical diagnosis and therapeutic need is both dangerous and illegal.”

    Spa attendants to clinicians: Desperation from spa owners?

    Adeola Adeniyi, a nurse, expressed dismay over how non-healthcare professionals administer drips to their clients.

    She said: “These spas are beginning to do too much. They seem to be looking for one thing or the other as a competitive edge against their competitors. Desperation to have a unique selling proposition.

    “These glutathione IV drips given are absolutely unnecessary. A healthy diet and drinking water is enough to give you all the necessary nutrients your body needs.

    “When is a spa spot now a medical licensed place for drip? Many ladies keep endangering their lives for a few minutes acknowledgement.

    “Imagine allowing a spa to administer glutathione IV drips, likely by a non-healthcare professional. What if there was a reaction considering the fact that it was straight into your blood? This is unethical,” she stated.

    Experts weigh in

    Medical professionals have opined that exposing the liver and kidneys to large quantities of vitamins can place them under significant stress.

    There is always a risk of infection with IV vitamin therapy, as any time an IV line is inserted; it creates a direct path into the bloodstream.

    Despite this, the drips are on sale and promoted by celebrities, influencers online.

    Global Health Executive, Dr. Ajidahun Olusina believes that the marketing of glutathione IV drips is actually a cash cow strategy used by a lot of spas.

    Olusina said: “The food you eat has enough supply of glutathione which is an anti-oxidant to mop up dangerous ROS, and collagen is a protein produced in your body. Why are they giving what you already have?

    “It’s actually a cash cow strategy used by a lot of spas. If you use the money of that drip to buy tomatoes, veggies, a lot of fruits and eat plus water, you will get more benefits than that drip they are telling you will give you collagen and glutathione. Don’t let these spas dupe you like they regularly dupe Lagos and Abuja elites, “Big girls”, celebs, e.t.c.

    “Your liver stores so much. (Except there’s a problem, which will be addressed at a hospital not a spa). Don’t let all these quacks in the name of beauticians, aesthetician, wannabe masseurs and masseuses siphon your hard earned money.

    “You don’t need to be infused with collagen. You have it in your body already. It makes a huge bulk of supporting protein structures. What they are doing won’t reverse aging.

    “Almost everywhere in your body has collagen, your skin, your hair, your nails, your bones, your muscles, your ligaments, on and on. They will use big words that you need collagen because they know most people don’t know, then get you to pay for what is sitting pretty in you.”

    Another medical doctor, Obinna Ossai warned women to be wary of the antics of spas and wellness centres.

    Ossai said: “Run from any spa that offers to set lines on you and start fluids in the name of giving you a ‘youthful look’ or whatever they are using these days. Such spas are dangerous scammers and should be reported to the authorities. You don’t need vitamin drips. You can get them from fruits and food. Why are you getting vitamin C drip when two oranges gives you all the vitamin C you need in a day, at way cheaper rate than the drip you are getting? They can damage your liver and kidney.  Except you are critically deficient, you don’t need it.

    A UK-based doctor, Olufunmilayo Ogunsanya said all the vitamins, collagen, glutathione needed by one is deposited in one’s food, vegetables and fruits.

    He said: “If you go to a spa or massage parlour, and they give you a drip telling you it is “glutathione” or “vitamins”, you have just wasted your money; you have sadly risked your life and they have just scammed you by exploiting your ignorance. You do not need vitamin/glutathione drips in spa parlours.

    “You do not need “vitamin drips” and “glutathione drips” in a spa. You are wasting your money, you are risking your life and you are being scammed.

    “They can use unsterilised needles for you – they can give you HIV, Hepatitis and many other diseases. They can push air bubbles into your veins which can go into your heart and you will drop dead.

    “Please avoid drip infusions in spas. I know Nigerians think it’s a “healthy thing to do”, but I promise you, it is not. You are wasting your money. You are putting your life at risk. And you could die getting these drips. Eat well, drink water, take fruits, exercise regularly and you are totally perfect.”

  • Enhancing the safety, security of volunteer traffic warriors

    Enhancing the safety, security of volunteer traffic warriors

    Nigeria’s roads remain perilous, with thousands of crashes and lives lost each year, and volunteer traffic marshals often find themselves on the frontlines of this crisis. On November 8, the University of Lagos hosted the 2025 Special Marshals Sectoral Workshop, bringing together policymakers, security experts and volunteers to confront rising risks, review operational gaps, and chart strategies to enhance the safety, security, and effectiveness of those who keep the nation’s highways safer, reports Ntakobong Otongaran

    There is a quiet, uncelebrated heroism that often threads through Nigeria’s highways—borne not in sirens or ceremony, but in the reflective vests of men and women who surrender their weekends and at times their own safety to keep others alive. It was this spirit of selfless civic service, fragile yet determined, that seemed to breathe through the sparkling ambience of the main auditorium of the University of Lagos, where Special Marshals and policymakers recently gathered for the 2025 Special Marshals Sectoral Workshop.

    Unlike typical official gatherings, this one carried the weight of urgency. Nigeria’s roads had again delivered a grim reminder of their volatility: 5,281 crashes in just six months; nearly 40,000 people involved; almost 3,000 lives extinguished; tens of thousands rescued from the brink. And above it all loomed the World Health Organisation’s chilling metric—21.4 deaths per 100,000 citizens—branding Nigeria as one of Africa’s deadliest terrains for road users. The statistics were not recited for drama; they were the shadows under which every discussion took shape.

    Unlike the routine cadence of official gatherings, this one carried a palpable weight of urgency. Nigeria’s highways had once again laid bare their unforgiving volatility: 5,281 crashes in just six months; nearly 40,000 people caught in their chaos; close to 3,000 lives abruptly extinguished; tens of thousands pulled back from the edge. Hovering over it all was the World Health Organisation’s stark calculation—21.4 deaths per 100,000 citizens—casting Nigeria among Africa’s most perilous landscapes for road users. These figures were not summoned for effect; they were the sombre shadows beneath every conversation in the hall.

    Taking the podium on behalf of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dr Tajudeen Abbas, the Chairman of the House Committee on Safety Standards and Regulations, David Idris Zacharias, distilled the debate with crisp clarity. Safety and security, he reminded the hall, are not parallel lines—they intersect constantly and decisively to shape every facet of road governance. The FRSC, he urged, must invest deeper in the skills that truly save lives: emergency response, first aid, fire prevention, safety management. A uniform, he said, does not make a competent marshal; training does, equipment does, the right operational environment does. He pushed the argument further by calling for a bolder embrace of technology—smarter surveillance systems, more agile traffic control mechanisms, and digital tools capable of lifting Nigeria’s road-safety architecture onto faster, more responsive footing. His assurance that the National Assembly stood ready to support efforts to strengthen operational standards sent a subtle ripple of optimism through the hall.

    In his welcome address, the Lagos State Coordinator of Special Marshals, Dr Olabisi Dennis, rooted the day’s reflections in pride and purpose. A UNILAG alumnus himself, he pointed to the symbolic weight of hosting the session at a campus known for producing leaders, thinkers, and nation-shapers. Lagos, he noted with warmth, had become a standard-bearer for volunteer dedication—its Special Marshals embodying discipline, unity, and an unwavering sense of public duty. For Dennis, the workshop was more than a meeting; it was a renewal. The challenges are evolving, he acknowledged, and volunteers must evolve with them. But he expressed confidence—anchored in the shared resolve he saw in the room—that the deliberations would yield ideas strong enough to elevate the Special Marshals scheme for the years ahead.

    The keynote address, delivered by the Lagos State Sector Commander of the Federal Road Safety Corps, Corps Commander Kehinde Hamzat, offered a penetrating appraisal of the operational terrain confronting Special Marshals today. He observed that their responsibilities had grown markedly more complex, shaped by emerging security threats and the increasingly unpredictable behaviour of certain road users. Hamzat noted that both officers and volunteers had, in recent times, endured harassment, threats, and even physical confrontations during operations across Lagos corridors—incidents that, in his view, underscored the urgent need to recalibrate existing strategies to better safeguard personnel.

    Describing the Special Marshals as an indispensable extension of the Corps’ operational strength, he praised their voluntary service, which has elevated public education efforts, enhanced field operations, and deepened community engagement. Yet, he cautioned that today’s realities demanded heightened vigilance, tighter coordination with Regular Marshals, and more deliberate collaboration with security agencies. He referenced several troubling episodes in which marshals had been exposed to danger, insisting that operational security must now sit at the very centre of strategic planning.

    Hamzat outlined priority strategies for the future: stronger situational awareness, thorough pre-operation risk assessments, robust communication channels, and reinforced partnerships with security operatives during patrols and high-risk deployments. He encouraged greater adoption of technology—GPS tracking, authorised communication platforms, and field recording devices—to strengthen accountability and minimise operational disputes. Continuous capacity building, he stressed, was equally crucial, recommending periodic refresher courses on conflict management, first aid, and emergency response. Beyond strategy and equipment, he emphasised the human element: volunteer welfare. Recognition, support, and a sense of belonging, he noted, remained essential to sustaining performance, motivation, and long-term retention within the Special Marshals scheme.

    The technical session, helmed by Prof Iyiola Oni of the Centre for Multimodal Transport Studies at the University of Lagos, widened the discourse, placing Nigeria’s challenges within a global, evidence-driven context. His presentation laid bare the staggering scale of the road safety crisis worldwide: 1.35 million lives lost annually to road crashes, and 50 million more left with serious injuries. Nearly half of the victims were vulnerable road users—pedestrians, cyclists, and children—and 93 per cent of these fatalities occurred in low- and middle-income countries.

    Turning the lens to Nigeria, Oni argued that the nation’s persistently high fatality rate revealed systemic gaps demanding urgent, decisive action. Enforcement alone would not suffice; education, institutional strengthening, and structured volunteer support were equally critical. Within this framework, he highlighted the indispensable role of the Special Marshals. Describing them as individuals of integrity and means, Oni emphasised that these volunteers dedicate their time and expertise to advance the national road safety agenda. Their duties span highway patrols, traffic control during special operations, road safety education, data collection, and research support. It was precisely their voluntary commitment that rendered them a singular asset in Nigeria’s transport safety architecture.

    Yet, Oni did not shy away from outlining the risks they face. Exposure to roadside hazards, harassment from motorists, limited emergency response systems, insufficient safety training, and inadequate welfare or insurance coverage were recurring challenges that undermined both effectiveness and safety. To address these vulnerabilities, he recommended a structured approach: comprehensive safety and security policies for volunteers, improved provision of personal protective equipment, closer collaboration with security agencies, and robust insurance coverage. Regular training in first aid, emergency scene management, and conflict de-escalation, he insisted, must also be institutionalised.

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    Workshop participants reinforced these concerns with vivid field accounts. Coordinators spoke of Marshals confronting aggression from motorists, threats during traffic duties, and insufficient backup from security agencies during high-risk assignments. These testimonies underscored the urgent need for strengthened operational safeguards and institutional frameworks. The presence of the House Committee chairman, Zacharias, lent hope that these concerns might translate into concrete legislative action. Zacharias had earlier reiterated the committee’s commitment to national safety standards, signalling that recommendations from the workshop could influence policy—news that resonated deeply with volunteers who long sought statutory support.

    Technology emerged repeatedly as a transformative tool. GPS-enabled patrol monitoring, digital communication platforms, and body cameras were proposed as essential for transparency, accountability, and efficiency, echoing practices successfully deployed in other countries. Equally pressing was first aid training. Participants stressed that timely intervention often separates life from death on Nigerian roads. They advocated equipping every Special Marshal with basic life-support skills and standardised first aid kits, noting that delays in medical response frequently exacerbate the toll of road crashes.

    As the workshop drew to a close, the Lagos Sector Commander reaffirmed the Corps’ unwavering commitment to the Special Marshals, whose discipline, dedication, and patriotism had consistently bolstered road safety across Lagos—a state renowned for one of the country’s most intricate and demanding traffic systems. He expressed confidence that the recommendations emerging from the workshop would inform future operational guidelines, strengthen field conditions, and enhance the overall effectiveness of the volunteer scheme.

    The event concluded on a note of renewed purpose, emphasizing steadfast adherence to the principles of safety, discipline, and public service. While the challenges before Nigeria’s road safety framework remain formidable, the deliberations highlighted the indispensable value of a secure, well-trained, and adequately supported volunteer corps. The measured tone of the discussions underscored the need for prudence, institutional order, and strategic foresight as the nation navigates the complexities of modern road safety management.

  • Tackling oil price shocks with economic diversification, FX reforms

    Tackling oil price shocks with economic diversification, FX reforms

    Nigeria’s economic diversification project is gaining ground. Oil is now accounting for a smaller share of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 33 per cent of government revenue, and 51 per cent of exports. With oil now a smaller share of GDP and fiscal revenue, a sharp oil-price decline is being cushioned by the flexible foreign exchange (FX) regime, rising non-oil exports, and growing services trade. The deployment of the Electronic Forex Market Surveillance System, shift to a single, market-determined exchange rate regime, and enhanced risk-based banking are expanding Nigeria’s capacity to absorb external shocks and diversify away from oil, reports Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE.

    After nearly a decade in which real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth averaged about two per cent, the economic reforms initiated by the Federal Government have begun to restore momentum and confidence in Nigeria’s broader macroeconomic environment. In the second quarter of 2025, the economy expanded by 4.23 per cent—the strongest growth in four years—driven by improvements in telecommunications, financial services, and oil production.

    The introduction of the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Code has established clear rules for transparency, ethics, governance and fair dealing among authorised dealers. The deployment of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Management System (EFEMS) system, powered by Bloomberg BMatch, has equally transformed FX trading through mandatory order submission, real‑time regulatory visibility, and enhanced price discovery. Together, these reforms have reduced opacity and manipulation, and restored discipline to the market. The naira now trades within a narrow, stable range. The once‑substantial gap between the official and parallel markets has shrunk to under two per cent, down from over 60 per cent.

    Foreign capital inflows reached US$20.98 billion in the first 10 months of 2025, a 70 per cent increase over total inflows for 2024 and a 428 per cent surge compared to the US$3.9 billion recorded in 2023, reflecting a clear resurgence in investor confidence. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, explained that naira now trades within a narrow, stable range. The huge gap between the official and parallel markets has shrunk to under two per cent, from over 60 per cent. For him, macroeconomic indicators show that Nigeria is more resilient to external shocks today than at any point in her recent history.

    For instance, Nigeria’s external sector strengthened decisively in 2025, with the current account balance rising over 85 per cent to US$5.28 billion in Q2, up from US$2.85 billion in Q1. Bolstering our external buffers, foreign reserves reached US$46.7 billion by mid-November, the highest in nearly seven years, providing over 10 months of forward import cover and significantly enhancing the economy’s resilience.

    Cardoso explained that what is most important here is that Nigeria’s FX reserves are being rebuilt organically, not by borrowing, but through improved market functioning, stronger non‑oil exports, and robust capital inflows. “While oil production improved modestly to an average of 1.45–1.52 million barrels per day in 2025, the truly encouraging development is the strong performance of non-oil exports. Supported by ongoing reforms and greater exchange-rate flexibility, non-oil exports have grown by more than 18 per cent year-on-year, reflecting rising competitiveness under a truly market-driven FX framework,” he said.

    He disclosed that as with foreign investor inflows, diaspora remittances have also strengthened with confidence returning to official channels following enhancements in transparency, settlement efficiency, and reporting. “Remittances increased by approximately 12 per cent this year, and we expect this momentum to continue as the Non-Resident BVN, launched earlier this year, becomes more widely adopted in 2026.”

    Flexible exchange rate to be sustained

     The CBN boss said the apex bank is committed to maintaining the current flexible exchange‑rate framework that allows the naira to act as a shock absorber while limiting excessive volatility. “To strengthen this framework further, we will shortly be unveiling the revised FX Manual to expand market participation and tighten documentation standards, enhance EFEMS surveillance, and ensure consistent implementation to avoid any possibility of policy reversal. Recent assessments by rating agencies have provided significant external validation of Nigeria’s reform trajectory,” he said.

    Already, Fitch, Moody’s, and Standard & Poor’s have all acknowledged the positive impact of Nigeria’s reforms, from stronger reserves to improved fiscal discipline and greater FX transparency. Across all three agencies, the direction is consistent: fundamentals are strengthening, reform credibility is rising, and Nigeria’s risk profile is improving. “Fitch upgraded Nigeria from B- to B (stable), recognising our commitment to orthodox policies including FX reform, monetary tightening, and ending deficit monetisation.” Moody’s also raised its rating from Caa1 to B3 in May, citing improved fundamentals and a stronger outlook. And just this November, S&P affirmed B-/B and revised its outlook to positive, underscoring sustained reform momentum, rising reserves, and enhanced macroeconomic resilience.

    Moody’s has also further concluded its periodic review and while headlines may highlight risks, as rating agencies are mandated to do, the substance of the report reaffirms ongoing improvements, including stronger fiscal metrics and deeper diversification. “These endorsements of Nigeria’s policy direction have translated directly into improved borrowing terms, increased investment inflows, and enhanced credibility. Underscoring this progress, Nigeria this month successfully raised US$2.35 billion through a Eurobond issuance, attracting US$13 billion in orders, the largest in the nation’s history,” he said.

    Major policy shifts lifting economy

    Prof. Abiodun Adedipe, founder and Chief Consultant of B. Adedipe Associates Limited (BAA Consult), listed major policy shifts yielding positive results for the economy. He said that the CBN has eliminated  strange arbitraging and round-tripping opportunity through the forex market reforms; through petrol subsidy removal, the Federal Government removed crippling annual waste of US$10.7 billion and created environment for competition; bank recapitalisation is creating stronger and more capable banks to fund US$1 trillion economy while fiscal consolidation is plugging leakages, deploying technology and making government agencies more accountable and expanding fiscal space at sub-national.

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    Continuing, Adedipe said the real game changer remains the tax reforms, capable of igniting regional competition (the secret behind Chinese economic renaissance) while the Nigerian Education Loan Fund, Consumer Credit Corporation, recapitalised Bank of Agriculture, National Credit Guarantee Company Ltd, Single digit interest rate mortgage loans are major steps that should be taken to support sustainable economic growth.

    Support for domestic economy

    Adedipe said that Nigeria’s economy is supported by large, youthful and rapidly growing population (estimated at 237.53 million in July 2025 and sixth largest in the world, median age at 18.1 years). The country, he said, also benefits from rapid urbanisation with 54.28 per cent in December 2023, up from 46.12 per cent in 2013 and 51.96 per cent in 2020, deepening internet penetration which is at 48.15 per cent in April 2025, up from 45.57 per cent in August 2023 and 31.48 per cent in December 2018.

    Nigeria’s tele-density is at 79.65 per cent in May 2025, from 76.08 per cent in December 2024 and 102.97 per cent in Dec 2023, due to data cleanup at end of April 2024. “On global internet users, Nigeria with 123 million ranks 11th and 7th with over 84 per cent on mobile devices. Local oil refining continues to expand and prospects of new refineries, manufacturing is reviving and there is expanding interest in non-oil exports. Improvement in infrastructure will begin to positively impact the cost of doing business,” he said. He added that sustained deep reforms will enhance global competitiveness and Ease of Doing Business, plug leakages and shrink the space for economic rent.

    Fiscal‑monetary coordination

    The CBN explained that monetary reform cannot be effective in a vacuum. Alignment with fiscal policy has strengthened Nigeria’s macro stability and yielded tangible results including reduced domestic borrowing costs, improved liquidity conditions, and more predictable fiscal operations.

    For instance, the discontinuation of direct deficit financing signals one prong in our commitment to discipline. “This stance is unequivocal as there will be no return to the practice of financing fiscal deficits by the Central Bank. In parallel, the fiscal authorities have embarked on key institutional reforms – including the implementation of a Revenue Optimisation (RevOp) framework, the establishment of a new National Revenue Agency, and upgrades to the Treasury Single Account (TSA) – to strengthen revenue mobilisation and public financial management.

    “As we transition towards a full‑fledged inflation‑targeting framework, this partnership will deepen, ensuring fiscal and monetary policies reinforce each other in delivering durable price stability,” Cardoso said.

    Oil/gas output, revenue position

    The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) reported a significant surge in revenue, hitting N5.08 trillion in October 2025, up from N4.27 trillion recorded in September. The figures are contained in the company’s Monthly Report Summary for October 2025. According to the report, NNPC Ltd’s profit after tax (PAT) rose sharply to N447 billion in October, compared to N216 billion in September, stronger operational efficiency, improved market conditions, and enhanced cost optimisation strategies deployed by the national oil company.

    The report shows that production hit 6,997 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscf/d) in October, up from 6,284 mmscf/d in September. Gas sales, reported on an M-2 basis, climbed to 4,713 mmscf/d, marking a significant increase from 3,443 mmscf/d recorded in the previous month. Crude oil production experienced a slight dip, falling to 1.58 million barrels of oil per day (mmbopd) in October from 1.61 mmbopd in September. NNPC Ltd also stated that it will continue to sustain industry-wide collaboration and drive production recovery initiatives.

    Buffers against oil prices fall

    Managing Director, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane, said global oil prices have dropped significantly, now hovering just above $63 per barrel while the naira exchanges at N1,445/$ at the official window. The Wall Street Journal’s grim forecast that Brent crude could fall below $50 per barrel by the end of 2025 only deepens the urgency for strategic policy responses. To strengthen economic buffers and sustain FX inflows, the CBN has proactively initiated strong measures aimed at cushioning the domestic economy against the looming oil price shock and ensuring sustainable economic development.

    Nigeria’s 2025 budget is squeezed by assumption of oil production of two million barrels per day and an oil price of $75 a barrel. At a benchmark of $75 per barrel and a production capacity of two million barrels per day (mbpd), Nigeria’s oil revenues would fall given the present oil price which is below budget benchmark. Such a shortfall could push the fiscal deficit to between six and seven per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), potentially fuelling inflationary pressures and weakening macroeconomic stability. Among these are policies to boost Nigeria’s non-oil export potential, strengthen backward integration to reduce dependence on imported goods, and streamline diaspora dollar remittances to enhance foreign exchange inflows.

    Drawing from China’s economic strategy, the apex bank said Nigeria’s competitive exchange rate can drive export-led growth. To harness this potential, businesses are expected to adopt export-oriented strategies by targeting sectors with strong export potential such as agriculture, manufacturing and creative industries; implement import-substitution models by strengthening domestic production capabilities and reducing reliance on costly imports; and focus on value addition by shifting from exporting raw materials to processed goods, thereby boosting foreign exchange earnings.

    Cardoso said Nigeria’s creative sector has potential to attract $25 billion annually to the economy, highlighting the untapped opportunities in Nigeria’s expanding creative sector, including music, film, crafts and digital exports. He urged businesses to explore international markets, digital platforms, and global tours to increase dollar revenue inflows. The CBN boss also recently advised telecom companies to reduce their dependence on foreign imports by producing key components of their inputs locally. The backward integration proposal for the telecom industry comes at a time the real sector is in dire need of sustainable growth. The CBN boss gave insights on what the economy stands to gain from backward integration in the telecoms sector.

    Discouraging foreign services import

    Speaking in Abuja during a visit by the Airtel Africa management team led by Group CEO Sunil Taldar, the CBN Governor underscored the importance of boosting local production to ease pressure on the dollar, generate employment and strengthen the national economy. Cardoso emphasised the urgent need to domestically manufacture key telecom inputs—such as SIM cards, cables and towers—that are currently being imported in large volumes. He highlighted that the CBN has taken deliberate steps to stabilise the foreign exchange market, strengthen the naira, and attract investor confidence. With these foundations now in place, he urged telecommunications companies to embrace backward integration as a strategic imperative.

    In response, the Airtel Africa CEO commended the CBN’s reform efforts and voiced strong support for local production, noting that such a shift would ultimately yield long-term benefits for the telecommunications industry. He also reaffirmed Airtel’s commitment to expanding financial inclusion across Nigeria through innovative technology solutions.

    Research Head, Cowry Asset Management Limited, Charles Abuede, said the CBN governor’s call was to discourage the importation of foreign services into Nigeria, especially when efforts can be made to develop such services locally. “The high demand for foreign exchange by telecom operators has further pressured the naira due to increased demand for the dollar. However, with adequate infrastructure development and a conducive operating environment facilitated by regulators, these challenges can be mitigated,” he said. According to Abuede, “given Nigeria’s FX policies, illiquidity in the foreign exchange market and infrastructure deficits, I think increased investment in the telecom sector would enable operators to embrace backward integration. This would allow them to manufacture key components, such as SIM cards, locally. As a result, production costs could decline—provided the operating environment remains stable. This will improve profit margins and enhance both top-line and bottom-line growth in the long run.”

    Building resilient economy

    He said Nigeria’s economy has been fully restructured and is now resilient, with huge buffers against global risks. Cardoso said the naira has equally emerged as a competitive currency, with the economy witnessing positive trade balances and large businesses moving from imports to export of locally produced goods and commodities. According to him, the positive economic indicators have combined to create resilient and strong buffers, keeping the economy in great shapes.

    O n the impact of the trade tariffs on the domestic economy, the CBN boss said the tariffs are less of problems for the country. “And for us again, oil is basically the only commodity that was so exposed to the tariffs, and the impact of that was relatively modest. We now have a more competitive currency with the results that, for once, we have a situation where we have a positive balance of trade surplus, and we expect it to be six per cent in GDP for some time.

    “So basically, what is happening is a complete restructuring of the economy, where we are encouraging people to go into domestic production, and, of course, discouraging imports. And I think we were very fortunate, because a lot of the things that were needed to have been done, we did them much earlier, and as a result of that, we’re able to create resilience and buffers against potential shocks,” Cardoso stated.

    He explained further that oil was the oil commodity that was exposed to the trade tariffs, but the impact was equally modest. “So, and of course, in terms of anchoring expectations, we found that those who followed the Nigerian economy were fairly comfortable. And for us, again, oil is basically the only commodity that was so exposed, and the impact of that was relatively modest,” he said. Overall, oil prices may face further declines if OPEC+ decides to raise output. The alliance is expected to focus on reviving another sliver of production in December in a move that may amplify traders’ concerns about a global glut.

  • NERC’s leadership void puts power sector on edge

    NERC’s leadership void puts power sector on edge

    A dangerous leadership vacuum has engulfed the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), where the tenure of the Vice Chairman and several Commissioners expires today, compounding a crisis that began in June when the Chairmanship fell vacant. With the Electricity Act 2023 offering no provision for an Acting Chairman, the Commission now risks operating without a legally recognised head—an unprecedented situation stakeholders warn could plunge the already fragile power sector into a full regulatory shutdown, reports Assistant Editor MUYIWA LUCAS.

    A leadership vacuum now grips the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) as the tenure of the Vice Chairman and several Commissioners expired yesterday, deepening an institutional crisis that began in June when the Chairmanship position fell vacant. The Electricity Act 2023 does not provide for an Acting Chairman once an incumbent’s tenure lapses, meaning the Commission may, in strict legal terms, operate without a head—an outcome stakeholders warn could trigger a “full regulatory shutdown” in a sector already fraught with instability.

    To avert this, President Bola Tinubu had, in August, nominated Abdullahi Garba Ramat—an engineer and former Local Government Chairman—as substantive Chairman, alongside two Commissioner nominees: Abubakar Yusuf for Consumer Affairs and Dr. Fouad Olayinka Animashun for Finance and Management Services. But the confirmation process has stalled in the Senate. Last month, Senate Committee on Media and Public Affairs Chairman, Senator Yemi Adaramodu, disclosed that the upper chamber halted Ramat’s confirmation due to what he described as a “baggage of public and private complaints” surrounding his nomination. According to him, the Senate was “statutorily bound” to step down any nominee under intense public scrutiny, noting that several appointees before now had withdrawn in similar circumstances. He insisted that the National Assembly could not be “dragged into public opprobrium” through allegations—however unproven—such as the widely circulated but unsubstantiated claim of a $10 million bribery scandal linked to the process.

    Despite this, pressure continues to mount. On November 11, protesters comprising civil society groups, human rights activists, and supporters of Ramat marched to the National Assembly, demanding the Senate fast-track his confirmation. They expressed frustration that although Ramat had already undergone screening by the Senate Committee on Power, led by Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, he has yet to be cleared for the role—leaving NERC’s leadership uncertainty unresolved.

    Appointment on merit

    Checks revealed that 39-year-old Abdullahi Garba Ramat may possess credentials that suggest potential for modernisation. He holds a Doctoral degree (PhD) in Strategic Management and has earned recognition for introducing blockchain-driven revenue systems and energy-efficiency initiatives during his tenure as Chairman of Ungogo Local Government Area, Kano State. Yet, despite these achievements, many stakeholders insist that his lack of direct power-sector experience stands as a significant drawback—one that could undermine his ability to lead Nigeria’s most sensitive regulatory institution.

    The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, expressed deep concern over the growing leadership vacuum in NERC. According to him, the electricity sector is already grappling with liquidity crises, widespread metering deficits and persistent operational inefficiencies. In such a fragile environment, a leadership void at the apex regulatory level could stall critical decisions, delay ongoing reforms and further erode investor confidence in a sector in desperate need of stability.

    For Yusuf, the position of NERC Chairman cannot be treated casually or politicised. It requires an individual with deep knowledge of the sector, someone who has acquired technical understanding through years of engagement with electricity market dynamics. This, he stressed, must guide appointments at all levels—government, leadership, management and operations. “The sector has gone through a major transition which needs to be managed strategically and competently by operatives who understand the electricity sector,” he warned. “This is not a sector where the quality of personnel or the quality of governance can be compromised. We need to prioritise prompt appointments to fill vacant positions and build a sustainable succession pipeline within the Commission. These are essential for sound regulatory governance.”

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    Yusuf further emphasised that the electricity industry plays a strategic role in Nigeria’s quest to mobilise private-sector capital, both locally and internationally. Attracting such investments, he noted, demands a regulatory environment that inspires confidence. The calibre of leadership and staff at NERC, therefore, is central to building that trust. He urged the Presidency to critically evaluate all issues surrounding appointments, succession and leadership in the sector. “Nigeria is not short of competent people from every region who can serve effectively. What we must avoid is creating capacity or governance gaps in NERC. This matter requires urgent attention,” he added.

    While political debates continue at the National Assembly over NERC’s nominations, experts argue that the real crisis lies in the failure to appoint a substantive Chairman based strictly on merit. According to a critical stakeholder in the electricity space who requested anonymity, “The uproar in the Senate is a distraction. The real problem is the refusal to elevate people within the system who understand the regulatory environment and have the competence required for the job.”

    Indeed, since NERC’s creation 20 years ago, the Commission has repeatedly appointed individuals with little or no grounding in the electricity sector as chairmen. In most cases, these appointees have had to rely heavily on long-serving technocrats within the Commission to navigate its complex regulatory and market frameworks. This, industry watchers say, undermines regulatory efficiency and slows down reform implementation. This is why many experts insist that promoting seasoned professionals who have grown through the ranks at NERC would provide greater stability, continuity and technical competence. Over the years, however, appointments into NERC’s leadership have tilted more towards political considerations than technical merit—a pattern analysts warn is dangerous for a sector central to Nigeria’s economic survival.

    Even with the comprehensive reforms embedded in the Electricity Act 2023, several economists argue that NERC’s persistent leadership deficiencies remain a key reason for the electricity sector’s recurring failures. Without strong regulatory leadership, they insist, the Act’s intended benefits will remain largely unrealised. The Executive Director of PowerUp Nigeria, a consumer-rights and power-sector advocacy organisation, Adetayo Adegbemle, also expressed worry over the prolonged delay in confirming the Chairman-nominee. According to him, since August—when the President submitted the nominee’s name—the Senate has confirmed several other appointees, yet the NERC nomination remains suspended. “This is a dangerous precedent in a very critical sector,” he warned. “We still do not know whether the nominee will be confirmed or rejected. This uncertainty does not bode well for the health of the power sector.”

    Adegbemle stressed that the indecisive approach of government institutions toward such a sensitive regulatory appointment sends the wrong message to investors. In a sector where confidence and predictability are essential, he said, prolonged political delays can discourage investment and stall development. “This is not the time to play politics,” he cautioned. “We have not made significant progress in the sector, and leadership uncertainty only makes matters worse.”

    Past occupants and status of current Commissioners

    Complicating the ongoing leadership crisis at the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) is the sensitive issue of geopolitical balance. A review of historical appointments into the chairmanship shows clear disparities, with several geopolitical zones yet to produce a NERC Chairman in the Commission’s two-decade existence. The North-West has produced Sanusi Garba, who retired in June 2025 after serving as Chairman. The current nominee, Abdullahi Ramat Garba, also hails from the North-West (Kano State), though his confirmation remains stalled in the Senate.

    The South-South has produced two past chairmen — Prof. James Momoh from Edo State and Ransom Owan from Cross River State. The South-East has produced Dr. Sam Amadi from Imo State. However, the South-West, North-Central, and North-East have never produced a chairman. This imbalance has fuelled renewed calls for future leadership selections to reflect federal character and ensure a more equitable distribution of strategic national positions. Beyond the chairmanship vacuum, stakeholders are expressing alarm over emerging patterns of tenure violations among commissioners. Section 36 of the Electricity Act 2023 stipulates that the Chairman shall serve a single five-year term, while Commissioners serve four-year terms, with eligibility for reappointment where applicable. Yet, some commissioners appear to have exceeded these statutory limits — a development that could invalidate regulatory decisions taken during the extended period, should any operator legally challenge them.

    Among those whose tenure expired on December 1 is Dr. Musiliu Oseni (South-West), the Vice Chairman and Commissioner for Market, Competition & Rates, who bowed out after completing a full 10 years in office across two terms. Also leaving the Commission is Hajiya Aisha Mahmud (North-West), the Commissioner for Consumer Affairs, who has now concluded her first term. But the exits are far from over. A fresh wave of tenure expirations looms between now and early 2026, threatening to further thin out the Commission’s leadership bench. Those nearing the end of their terms include: Nathan Rogers Shatti (North-East), Commissioner for Finance & Management, now in his second and final term; Dafe Akpeneye (South-South), Commissioner for Legal, Licensing & Compliance, also rounding off his second and final term; Dr. Yusuf Ali (North-Central), Commissioner for Planning, Research & Strategy, completing his first term; and Engr. Chidi Ike (South-East), Commissioner for Engineering, Performance & Monitoring, likewise finishing his first term.

    The clustering of these expiration dates has amplified fears that the Commission may soon struggle to form a statutory quorum — a legal minimum required to make decisions, issue regulations, approve tariffs, process licences, and carry out other critical regulatory functions. Without timely replacements, stakeholders warn, NERC could be pushed into a state of operational paralysis at a time when the electricity sector can least afford it.

    System threatened?

    As multiple commissioners depart without new appointees confirmed to replace them, experts warn that Nigeria risks breaching the Electricity Act 2023. Crucially, the Act does not allow for acting appointments for these high-level positions, meaning that once vacated, the seats remain empty until fully appointed and confirmed replacements are in place. “This trend can lead to a regulatory shutdown, endangering electricity market operations, tariff reviews, licensing, consumer protection and market settlement,” a stakeholder cautioned.

    Their concerns are grounded in the law. Section 35(1) of the Electricity Act mandates a full board of seven commissioners, appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate, to constitute the Commission. Section 226 empowers these commissioners collectively to issue regulations and perform all statutory functions. Without the required number of commissioners, regulatory decisions — including crucial processes such as tariff adjustments, dispute resolution, market monitoring, and licensing — risk stalling. Section 33(3) strengthens the Commission’s mandate: “The Commission shall be the apex regulator of the NESI and shall be an independent body in the performance of its functions and exercise of its powers under this Act.” This independence is pivotal to investor confidence, sector governance, and market stability.

    Established under the Electric Power Sector Reform Act of 2005 — now replaced by the Electricity Act 2023 — NERC has long played a central role in Nigeria’s electricity sector. Its responsibilities span licensing participants across the value chain, developing technical standards and operating codes, defining consumer rights and obligations, and setting cost-reflective tariffs under frameworks such as the Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO). Over two decades, the Commission has contributed significantly to sector growth by expanding generation and network capacity through licensing, developing market rules, and driving reforms aimed at efficiency and transparency. These achievements have been anchored on rule-based governance and robust stakeholder engagement.

    However, experts warn that the current leadership gaps threaten to erode these gains. Without prompt, merit-based appointments and adherence to tenure provisions, NERC’s institutional progress — built painstakingly over 20 years — could collapse rapidly. The consensus among stakeholders is clear: restoring stability at NERC is not just an administrative necessity but an urgent national priority.

  • $46bn reserves, falling inflation signal CBN policy impact

    $46bn reserves, falling inflation signal CBN policy impact

    Nigeria’s inflation rate continues to cool, slipping to 16.05 per cent in October from 18.02 per cent in September 2025 — a trend economists say reflects the impact of sustained monetary policy easing and far-reaching reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The easing cycle has strengthened FX stability, boosted foreign reserves to $46 billion, and reinforced confidence in the macroeconomic environment. CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso has consistently highlighted how recent policy decisions have made the naira more competitive and improved Nigeria’s investment climate for global investors, reports Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says ongoing policy easing and structural reforms are steadily filtering into the wider economy, helping to stabilise the naira, ease lending rates, and support the continued moderation of inflation. According to the bank, its recent monetary policy actions reflect a deliberate strategy to restore macroeconomic stability after years of fiscal and external pressures. It added that lower lending rates are emerging as one of the most visible outcomes of its policy trajectory, underscoring the leadership’s commitment to strengthening the financial system.

    The CBN noted that close alignment between fiscal and monetary policies has become indispensable at a time when technological innovation and digital finance are rapidly transforming the financial landscape. This coordination, it said, has enhanced the effectiveness of monetary tools and improved the transmission of policy decisions across sectors. At its 302nd meeting held on September 22 and 23, 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) trimmed the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points — from 27.5 per cent to 27 per cent. The move, the first rate cut since the tightening cycle began, signals a shift in policy direction as inflationary pressures begin to ease. The committee said the decision balances the need to support growth while maintaining stability in the foreign exchange market.

    Early data appears to validate this stance. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its October 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, revealed that inflation fell to 16.05 per cent from 18.02 per cent in September. It added that on a year-on-year basis, the October 2025 headline inflation rate was 17.82 per cent lower than the 33.88 per cent recorded in October 2024 — a significant moderation despite differences in the CPI base year.

     However, the NBS noted some upward movement on a month-on-month basis. The October 2025 inflation rate stood at 0.93 per cent, slightly higher than the 0.72 per cent recorded in September. This indicates that although prices continued to rise, the pace of increase was modest and broadly consistent with overall disinflation trends observed in the past months. Beyond inflation, other indicators are also pointing in a positive direction. The gradual strengthening of the naira, coupled with rising foreign reserves, suggests an improving economic outlook. These gains have contributed to renewed investor confidence and better stability in the foreign exchange (FX) markets.

    Reflecting this trend, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a 3.9 per cent growth rate for Nigeria in 2025, citing ongoing reforms, FX market improvements, and a stabilising macroeconomic environment. The CBN attributes much of the progress to the FX reforms introduced under the leadership of Governor Olayemi Cardoso, as well as new Federal Government policies targeting improved local production, reduced forex demand pressures, and lower domestic prices. Looking ahead, analysts say sustaining these gains will require the CBN to maintain its FX reforms while fiscal authorities intensify efforts to boost foreign exchange earnings, particularly from gas, oil, and non-oil exports.

    Exchange rate positions

     The naira has achieved a notable milestone, strengthening by 3.5 per cent against the U.S. dollar over the past ten months, reaching N1,450/$ at the parallel market. This recovery, though modest, signals a crucial shift, driven by coordinated adjustments to fiscal and monetary policies by the Federal Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

    The start of the year saw the naira trading at around N1,555/$. However, a brief period of instability saw the rate slip to a high of N1,597/$ by the end of April. The subsequent six months were marked by intense policy intervention. The naira briefly firmed up at N1,475/$ in October 2025 at the official market before settling at N1,500/$ at the parallel market yesterday, marking a 3.5 per cent gain from the January starting point.

    CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso says naira is turning the corner, and becoming more competitive in the international markets. He said Nigeria’s economy has been fully restructured and is now resilient, with huge buffers against global risks.

    He spoke during the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four (G-24) press briefing at the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington DC, US. Cardoso, who is the leader of the Nigeria delegation at the meetings, said the naira has equally emerged as a competitive currency, with the economy witnessing positive trade balances and large businesses moving from imports to export of locally produced goods and commodities.

    According to him, the positive economic indicators have combined to create resilient and strong buffers, keeping the economy in great shapes. Speaking on the impact of the trade tariffs on the domestic economy, the CBN boss said the tariffs are less of problems for the country. “And for us again, oil is basically the only commodity that was so exposed to the tariffs, and the impact of that was relatively modest. We now have a more competitive currency with the results that, for once, we have a situation where we have a positive balance of trade surplus, and we expect it to be six per cent in GDP for some time.

    “So basically, what is happening is a complete restructuring of the economy, where we are encouraging people to go into domestic production, and, of course, discouraging imports. And I think we were very fortunate, because a lot of the things that were needed to have been done, we did them much earlier, and as a result of that, we’re able to create resilience and buffers against potential shocks,” he stated.

    What other stakeholders are saying

    The Director-General, the West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM) Dr. Baba Musa, has called on government to ensure that 3.9 per cent growth for Nigeria in 2025 translate to decent jobs, rising incomes, improved productivity, and broader social welfare. In his report presented at the recently concluded 2025 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington DC, titled: “Nigeria’s Economic Outlook at a Turning Point”, he said as Nigeria moves further into 2025, Nigeria’s economic story is one of resilience, renewal, and strategic recalibration.

    Musa, who is also the President, Nigerian Economic Society, said Nigeria’s economic trajectory is increasingly encouraging with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.9 per cent in 2025, up from 3.5 per cent in 2024, with further acceleration to 4.2 per cent in 2026.

    Musa said Nigeria in 2025 is at a critical inflection point, cautiously optimistic yet structurally fragile. “Gains in growth, inflation moderation, and investment confidence mark important progress, but the work is far from complete. To sustain the recovery, Nigeria must maintain macroeconomic stability, deepen structural reforms, and ensure that growth translates into tangible improvements for citizens. Achieving this requires collaboration among government, private sector, civil society, and development partners,” he said.

    According to him, by committing to policy consistency, human capital investment and inclusive growth, Nigeria can consolidate its recovery and emerge as a more competitive, resilient, and equitable economy in the years ahead. “Globally, economies are grappling with slowing growth, projected at 2.7% in 2025 by the IMF for advanced economies, and heightened geopolitical risks that affect trade and investment. Against this backdrop, Nigeria has demonstrated remarkable determination. Domestically, inflationary pressures, infrastructure deficits, and unemployment persist, yet they now represent policy frontiers rather than defining constraints,” he said.

    Musa said recent policy measures, ranging from fiscal consolidation to targeted monetary adjustments, have laid the groundwork for a sustainable growth trajectory. “The real test, however, lies not only in achieving stability but in ensuring that it translates into tangible socio-economic outcomes: decent jobs, rising incomes, improved productivity, and broader social welfare. If Nigeria deepens reforms, invests strategically in human capital, and leverages its structural advantages, the country can achieve not only recovery but inclusive and durable economic transformation,” he said.

    He said the growth for Nigeria is underpinned by stronger oil production following operational improvements and policy reforms in the petroleum sector. “Recovery in services, particularly telecommunications, financial services, and transport, reflecting resilient domestic demand. Improved agricultural output, thanks to favourable weather patterns and government support for mechanisation and inputs,” he said.

    He said the recent GDP rebasing has also given a more accurate reflection of the economy, capturing growth in high-potential sectors such as digital services, modular refining, and the creative industries. This expanded view highlights opportunities for job creation, innovation, and revenue generation that were previously underappreciated. According to him, inflation remains elevated but is gradually moderating.

    “Headline inflation declined to 18.02 per cent in September 2025, down from 20.12 per cent in August, reflecting improved food supply, seasonal harvests, and targeted interventions in the energy market. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s interest rate cut, the first since 2020, signals a nuanced policy shift: a deliberate effort to balance price stability with growth and employment objectives. This approach is consistent with modern macroeconomic management, where inflation targeting is tempered by the need to stimulate investment and production in key sectors,” he said.

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    Speaking further, Musa said, “Investor sentiment is improving, illustrated by Shell’s approval of the HI Offshore Gas Project, expected to supply 350 million standard cubic feet of gas per day to Nigeria LNG. Economically, such projects deliver multiplier effects: they stimulate domestic suppliers, create high-skill and semi-skilled jobs, and strengthen Nigeria’s position as a reliable energy hub in Africa. They also enhance balance of payments stability, by promoting export-oriented production.”

    Moves to support economy

    The CBN under Cardoso is cultivating multiple FX sources to increase dollar inflows, boost dollar access to manufacturers and retail end users. From moves to improve diaspora remittances through new product development, the granting licenses to new International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), implementing a willing buyer-willing seller FX model, and enabling timely access to naira liquidity for IMTOs, the apex bank has simplified dollar-inflow channels for authorized dealers and other players in the value chain. The move has led to substantial accretion to the gross FX reserves and supported the stability of the naira.

    Given that FX inflows to the economy are strategic in achieving monetary and fiscal policy stability, the CBN under Cardoso puts in a lot of efforts in attracting more inflows into the economy. Diaspora remittances to Nigeria, estimated at $23 billion annually, remain a reliable source of forex to the domestic economy. There are also other sources and policies that are being explored by the apex bank to keep dollar inflows coming.

  • S&P upgrade shows impact of FX reforms, rising financial stability

    S&P upgrade shows impact of FX reforms, rising financial stability

    For many stakeholders, S&P Global Ratings’ upgrade reflects Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic indicators and the growing impact of financial sector reforms. It also signals confidence that ongoing monetary, economic and fiscal adjustments will drive growth and sustain foreign capital inflows. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s currency reforms—exchange rate unification and removal of FX trading restrictions—were key catalysts for the positive assessment, reports Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE

    S&P Global Ratings recently revised its outlook on Nigeria to “positive” from “stable,” while affirming the country’s “B-/B” sovereign credit rating. The shift reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic direction, particularly its determination to confront persistent macroeconomic headwinds through bold foreign exchange (FX) and structural reforms—moves that have drawn global recognition for the nation’s economic managers.

    According to S&P, Nigeria’s monetary and fiscal authorities have taken meaningful steps to restore stability, improve transparency, and rebuild market trust. “The monetary, economic, and fiscal reforms being implemented by Nigerian authorities will yield positive benefits over the medium term,” the agency said. This places Nigeria in a stronger position to potentially secure an upgraded credit rating if ongoing reforms continue delivering results.

    S&P’s assessment aligns with those of other major rating agencies. In May, Moody’s upgraded Nigeria by one notch to “B3” from “Caa1,” citing notable improvements in external liquidity and fiscal management. More recently, Fitch Ratings maintained its “B” rating with a stable outlook, acknowledging progress in Nigeria’s FX market reforms. Across the board, these agencies highlight the Central Bank of Nigeria’s FX liberalisation measures as central to stabilising the macroeconomic environment and curbing inflationary pressures.

    Welcoming S&P’s latest outlook revision, CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso said the development reflects the steady progress made in restoring confidence in Nigeria’s financial system. Speaking at a strategic session in Abuja, he noted that S&P’s positive stance demonstrates renewed confidence in the country’s economic recovery trajectory. According to him, the agency’s view suggests Nigeria is now seen as more capable of strengthening its financial position in the years ahead.

    “This is encouraging news for the country. It shows that our efforts to restore stability, strengthen governance frameworks, and rebuild trust in the financial system are being recognised internationally,” Cardoso said. He emphasised that Nigeria’s commitment to disciplined monetary policy, exchange rate unification, and transparency in market operations has played a major role in shaping these improved global perceptions.

    The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, also hailed the upgrade, calling it proof that the difficult but necessary reforms adopted by the administration are gaining international traction. “This development is yet another clear signal that the reforms we are undertaking are earning strong recognition from respected global institutions,” Edun stated. He reiterated that Nigeria remains committed to measures that improve liquidity, stimulate investment, and strengthen economic resilience.

    The private sector has also responded positively. President of the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria, Dr. Aminu Gwadabe, applauded the rating revision, noting that FX reforms have significantly supported exchange rate stability and improved confidence in the market. Several analysts similarly described the S&P outlook as “a significant step forward in restoring investor trust and economic stability,” arguing that improved creditworthiness could unlock new opportunities across various sectors.

    Since assuming office in October 2023, Governor Cardoso has prioritised rebuilding Nigeria’s economic buffers and enhancing resilience. Key CBN policies—such as unifying exchange rates, clearing more than $7 billion in FX backlog, and reducing market interventions—have encouraged foreign investment inflows and positioned Nigeria as a more attractive investment destination. Institutions including the World Bank have praised these reforms as bold steps toward long-term macroeconomic sustainability.

    The impact is becoming evident in financial markets. Nigeria’s sovereign risk premium has fallen to its lowest level since January 2020, reversing the surge that accompanied the pandemic and subsequent economic turbulence. Improved investor sentiment has also helped the country re-enter the international debt market. Last week, Nigeria successfully raised $2.35 billion through a Eurobond issuance to support financing of the 2025 budget, even as the government continues to tap domestic sources to bridge fiscal gaps.

    Analysts caution, however, that sustaining these gains requires consistent implementation, effective coordination across government agencies, and vigilance against external shocks such as global oil price fluctuations. Nevertheless, with reforms gaining momentum and global recognition mounting, Nigeria appears to be charting a more stable and promising economic path.

    Feedback from other ratings agencies

    Recent assessments by major global rating agencies indicate a steady improvement in Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators and growing confidence in the country’s reform agenda. These independent evaluations reflect a broadening optimism about the direction of Nigeria’s monetary and fiscal policies. Moody’s Investors Service recently upgraded Nigeria’s issuer ratings from Caa1 to B3 with a stable outlook, citing significant improvements in the country’s external accounts and fiscal position. The move signals increasing optimism about Nigeria’s economic prospects and the credibility of its reform efforts. Moody’s noted that it revised Nigeria’s outlook to stable because it expects the progress made on the external and fiscal fronts to continue, albeit more slowly if oil prices soften.

    In its statement, Moody’s was explicit about the impact of policy reforms, especially in the FX market. It highlighted the “recent overhaul of Nigeria’s foreign exchange management framework,” describing it as a major shift that has strengthened the balance of payments and boosted the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) external reserves. The agency added that inflationary risks—previously aggravated by policy transitions such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate liberalisation—are gradually easing. According to Moody’s, inflation and domestic borrowing costs are showing early signs of moderation, reinforcing confidence that the current policy direction is stabilising the economy.

    “The stable outlook reflects our expectations that external and fiscal improvements will decelerate but will not reverse entirely,” the agency said, emphasising that Nigeria remains on a firmer economic footing than before the reforms.

    Before Moody’s upgrade, Fitch Ratings had already raised Nigeria’s credit rating from B- to B, maintaining a stable outlook. For many stakeholders who have closely monitored Nigeria’s reform path, Fitch’s rating revision did not come as a surprise. The CBN’s aggressive reforms—including exchange rate unification to curb market arbitrage, the introduction of an electronic FX matching platform, the rollout of a new FX code to improve transparency, and consistent monetary policy tightening to tame inflation—have signalled a clear commitment to macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth.

    Fitch’s latest rating also moved Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) from negative to stable, an important shift that enhances Nigeria’s attractiveness to foreign investors. With a more favourable credit profile, Nigeria stands a better chance of borrowing at lower interest rates on international markets while also boosting investor confidence at home. The agency commended the government for its decisive reforms since June 2023, when Nigeria embraced more orthodox economic policies. Fitch highlighted the liberalisation of the FX market, tighter monetary policy, and strong actions to end deficit monetisation and fuel subsidies as reforms that have enhanced policy coherence and credibility. According to the agency, these measures have reduced economic distortions, eased near-term macroeconomic risks, and improved Nigeria’s resilience amid domestic challenges and global uncertainties.

    Reacting to Moody’s decision, President Bola Tinubu described the upgrade of Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer rating as a welcome affirmation of the country’s economic direction. He noted that the development represents a significant vote of confidence from global partners and reflects the progress made under his administration’s reform agenda. “This upgrade signals to global investors and partners that Nigeria is back on a path of responsibility, reform, and renewed credibility,” the President said. He reaffirmed the government’s commitment to prudent economic management, fiscal transparency, and inclusive growth, adding that the rating underscores progress in stabilising the macroeconomic environment, improving debt sustainability, and unlocking Nigeria’s long-term economic potential.

    An analyst, Dr. Wahab Balogun, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Ambosit Capital Managers, noted that Nigeria’s improved credit ratings offer a critical gateway for the country to re-engage the international capital markets on more favourable terms. A stronger rating, he explained, could lower debt-servicing costs and create additional fiscal space for development projects—an essential advantage for a country seeking to expand infrastructure and stimulate broad-based growth.

    According to him, the stable outlook assigned by Moody’s means Nigeria is not at risk of an immediate downgrade or upgrade, signalling that the reforms already implemented are viewed as credible and broadly effective. “It also reinforces the view that the government’s policy direction is yielding early positive results, though sustained implementation will be necessary to achieve long-term benefits,” he said.

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    Balogun further noted that the dual upgrades from Fitch and Moody’s have been interpreted within financial and investment circles as a sign of Nigeria’s renewed discipline in economic management and a signal of the country’s re-emergence as a responsible player in global finance. As Nigeria intensifies efforts to attract private capital—both domestic and foreign—to advance its development priorities, these improved ratings could strengthen investor confidence and support long-term ambitions in economic diversification, infrastructure expansion, and inclusive growth.

    Why the ratings upgrade happened

    A major factor behind the ratings upgrades is the series of transparency-driven reforms introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). One of the most significant was the launch of the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Code (FX Code) in Abuja, an initiative designed to instill discipline, integrity, and accountability in the FX market. Since its introduction, the FX Code has contributed to greater stability of the naira across both official and parallel market windows.

    Cardoso, who unveiled the FX Code, underscored its central pillars: integrity, fairness, transparency, and efficiency. He explained that the Code is anchored on six core principles—ethics, governance, execution, information sharing, risk management and compliance, and confirmation and settlement processes. These principles align with global standards, while also addressing Nigeria’s specific market challenges. According to Cardoso, the FX Code represents “a decisive step forward, setting clear and enforceable standards for ethical conduct, transparency, and good governance in our foreign exchange market.” He stressed that under the CBN Act of 2007 and the BOFIA Act of 2020, violations would attract penalties and administrative sanctions. “The era of opaque practices is over. The FX Code marks a new era of compliance and accountability,” he said.

    The CBN also noted that while the FX Code is comprehensive, it is not meant to be exhaustive. Instead, it forms part of a broader reform agenda aimed at strengthening compliance across the financial sector. Cardoso highlighted that 2024 marked a turning point, with structural reforms designed to move the naira toward a more freely determined market rate and ease volatility by removing persistent distortions. The FX Code comprises six guiding principles supported by 52 sub-principles, which the CBN intends to use as a market-wide standard for all participating institutions. Backed by the legal authority of the CBN Act 2007 and BOFIA 2020, the Code functions as an enforceable directive that all foreign exchange market participants must adhere to.

    In addition to the FX Code, the apex bank introduced the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS)—a technology-driven mechanism used in other economies to enhance market efficiency. EFEMS is expected to strengthen price discovery, improve transparency, and further support ongoing FX reforms aimed at stabilising Nigeria’s currency and restoring investor confidence.

  • Can the N1tr real estate fund boost affordable housing?

    Can the N1tr real estate fund boost affordable housing?

    In a landmark move to tackle Nigeria’s housing deficit, the Federal Government has listed its N1 trillion Ministry of Finance Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF) on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX). The initiative aims to expand access to affordable mortgages with long tenures and lower interest rates, unlock value from public real estate assets, stimulate economic growth and encourage private-sector participation, offering a market-driven approach to making homeownership more attainable for Nigerians, reports OKWY IROEGBU-CHIKEZIE

    The Federal Government has taken a major step towards tackling Nigeria’s housing deficit by listing its N1 trillion real estate investment fund on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX). The Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF) was formally listed on Tuesday under the leadership of the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Olawale Edun.

    The initiative is designed to expand access to affordable mortgages, offering repayment terms of up to 25 years at significantly lower interest rates than current commercial lending rates. According to Edun, the fund will unlock value from public real estate assets while creating a transparent, market-driven platform for housing investment. “This scheme is aimed at bridging part of the 22 million-unit housing deficit, generating employment, stimulating economic growth, and encouraging private-sector participation in housing construction,” Edun explained. He further highlighted that long-term investors would benefit from market-based returns while helping make homeownership accessible to more Nigerians.

    Edun elaborated on the financial mechanism underpinning the fund, noting: “When I say low-cost, we are talking about low double digits, maybe 11 or 12 per cent, potentially lower depending on market conditions. This will be achieved by blending long-term savings from life insurance companies, pension funds, and other savers with low-cost government funding available at one per cent for up to 40 years. The result is mortgages at affordable rates with tenures of 20 years or more.”

    He stressed that the structure could relieve Nigerians from the burden of commercial mortgage rates that often exceed 30 per cent with short repayment periods. “With this fund, repayment rates could drop to around 10 per cent, giving borrowers longer tenures and much-needed financial breathing room,” he said.

    Despite the promise of the initiative, some experts and stakeholders have called for interest rates in the single digits to ensure genuine affordability for the average Nigerian. Industry players caution that the current 12 per cent rate may limit the scheme’s impact, potentially resulting in mortgages that are still out of reach for many and falling short of addressing the broader housing crisis. Nonetheless, the MREIF listing is seen as a significant milestone in Nigeria’s pursuit of sustainable housing solutions, offering a potential blueprint for mobilising private and public investments to meet the country’s growing housing needs.

    One expert, who spoke to The Nation on condition of anonymity, questioned how the government arrived at the proposed 12 per cent interest rate for the newly listed real estate investment fund. He argued that, given current housing costs, the mortgage system, as structured, does little to benefit the target population. “A combination of single-digit interest rates and some form of housing subsidy is the only way to make homes truly accessible for low-income earners,” he insisted.

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    Festus Adedayo, Executive Director of the Housing Development Advocacy Network (HDAN), acknowledged that a single-digit rate would have been ideal but noted that Nigeria’s current economic realities make this difficult. “Starting at 12 per cent is manageable, considering the fiscal and economic challenges the country faces,” he said. Adedayo also emphasised the importance of using locally produced building materials to lower construction costs and urged the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to play a more active role in the housing and mortgage sector. He further stressed that government support for the Family Homes Fund (FHF) and the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) is crucial to promote social housing and reach citizens who may not even afford a 12 per cent mortgage.

    From a practical standpoint, Adewunmi Okupe, Managing Director of Ace Hi-Teck Construction Co., pointed out that a salaried worker earning N360,000 per month would struggle to service a mortgage at 12 per cent interest. He proposed a more realistic rate between four and six per cent, arguing that affordable housing must be paired with affordable financing. Using the example of a N12 million home, Okupe calculated that interest alone at 12 per cent would amount to N1.44 million annually, or N120,000 monthly—an unfeasible figure for the average Nigerian worker.

    Dr. Niyi Ade, another industry observer, agreed that while 12 per cent improves affordability compared to commercial rates exceeding 30 per cent, it still excludes those at the lowest economic levels. He suggested that interventions should go beyond interest rates to include the promotion of cost-effective construction methods and accessible building materials. However, some experts maintain that 12 per cent is a step in the right direction. Compared to prevailing commercial rates, which often surpass 30 per cent, the new rate provides significant relief for middle-income earners. While single-digit rates would be preferable, a 12 per cent starting point is viewed as a realistic and rewarding approach given the current Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) of 27.5 per cent.

    Estate surveyor and valuer Femi Oyedele has dismissed the prospect of single-digit mortgage interest rates in Nigeria, citing prevailing economic conditions and cultural factors as major constraints. He argued that achieving such rates is unlikely within the next decade. Oyedele also clarified that the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) is not a mortgage bank but a commercial entity established to facilitate financial transactions, rather than provide structured mortgage financing. He referenced a similar N250 billion initiative announced in late 2024, which aimed to stimulate growth in the housing sector but was not designed as an affordable mortgage fund. According to Oyedele, the current N1 trillion Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF) at 12 per cent interest functions more as a low-interest commercial loan than a traditional mortgage. True mortgage financing, he explained, requires structured contributions from prospective homeowners rather than direct government provision.

    A statement jointly signed by the President and Executive Secretary/CEO of the Mortgage Banking Association of Nigeria (MBAN), Ebliate MAC-Yoroki and Adedeji Ajadi, outlined that the N250 billion MREIF Fund is structured to attract long-term private sector and capital market investments from Pension Fund Operators and Life Insurance Companies. These investments are blended with low-cost seed funding provided by the government. “MBAN encourages all Nigerians to embrace this opportunity to access affordable mortgages, fulfil their dreams of homeownership, and contribute to narrowing the housing gap,” the statement read. MBAN member mortgage banks and brokerage firms are positioned to facilitate the process, ensuring the benefits of the fund reach those most in need.

    The strategic intervention by the Federal Executive Council (FEC), under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, underscores a strong commitment to addressing Nigeria’s housing deficit while revitalising the mortgage banking subsector. The MREIF initiative represents a significant step toward making homeownership more attainable for Nigerians, even as discussions about optimal interest rates and accessibility continue.

    The innovative financing model is poised to act as a catalyst for affordable homeownership in Nigeria, offering mortgages at interest rates approaching the single digits, with repayment tenures of up to 20 years. This structure provides much-needed relief to prospective homeowners who have long been constrained by high interest rates and affordability challenges. The initiative aligns seamlessly with the Federal Government’s strategic objective of addressing the country’s significant housing deficit. By facilitating easier access to mortgages, it is expected to stimulate economic growth, create jobs across the mortgage banking sector, and energise the broader real estate and construction industries.

    This development highlights the crucial role of public-private collaboration in tackling national challenges like affordable housing. The Mortgage Banking Association of Nigeria (MBAN) remains committed to working closely with the Federal Government and key stakeholders to ensure sustainable, market-driven housing solutions for Nigerians.

    Dr. Armstrong Takang, Managing Director of the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI), described the project as a landmark step toward promoting homeownership. He noted that mortgage rates under the fund will not exceed 12 per cent, with targets to reduce them below 10 per cent in future phases. “The savings from these low-cost funds are being passed directly to Nigerians through reduced interest rates on mortgages,” he said.

    The initiative is being implemented in partnership with Family Homes Funds Limited (FHFL) and ARM Investment Managers, who will oversee operations. FHFL has additionally secured a credit line from the African Development Bank (AfDB) to further lower financing costs. Through the listing on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), the Federal Government aims to attract private and institutional investors, mobilize long-term capital, and deepen Nigeria’s housing finance ecosystem. The move also reflects a broader shift from direct government spending toward market-based, socially impactful investments designed to promote sustainable development and long-term economic growth.

    Under the programme, civil servants and other eligible Nigerians can access mortgage loans with just a 10 per cent equity contribution, significantly lowering the entry barrier to homeownership. The government has assured that the Ministry of Finance Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF) will enhance transparency and investor confidence by adhering to the disclosure and reporting standards of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).

    For Ngozi Chukwu, Acting Managing Director of Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank (ITMB), the introduction of near–single-digit mortgage loans through MREIF is a commendable “game changer.” However, she stressed that more needs to be done, noting that mortgage banking contributes less than one per cent to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared with 20–40 per cent in developed economies. Chukwu emphasised the need for stronger policy support and access to low-cost, long-term funds to deepen mortgage penetration and make homeownership a reality for more Nigerians. “The government must simplify and reduce the cost of land titling and registration. The current manual process is slow, expensive, and discourages both lenders and borrowers,” she said. She also called for a digital, transparent land registry to accelerate title perfection, enhance mortgage security, and attract greater private investment. Chukwu suggested that government provision of land and basic infrastructure—roads, water, electricity—while leaving development to the private sector could cut project costs by up to 50 per cent. Strengthening the capacity of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) would also expand access to affordable mortgages.

    Chairman of the MOFI Board, Shamsuddeen Usman, described MREIF as a “landmark achievement” in promoting sustainable homeownership, while the National Coordinator of the programme, Sani Yakubu, highlighted its focus on increasing mortgage penetration with active private-sector leadership. Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Agama Emomotimi, noted the initiative’s critical role in advancing financial inclusion and leveraging the capital market for national development. ARM Investment Managers, who oversee the fund, described MREIF as a transparent, scalable, and private-sector-led approach, marking a significant departure from previous housing interventions and offering a more sustainable path toward closing Nigeria’s housing gap.

  • Winners, losers in Anambra 2025 governorship election

    Winners, losers in Anambra 2025 governorship election

    Based on the official results declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the clear winner of the election is Governor Chukwuma Soludo and his party, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). Beyond them, several other key stakeholders can also be considered winners for their roles in the electoral process.

    Soludo:

    As the declared winner, Governor Soludo is the principal beneficiary of the exercise. It was a decisive and well-earned victory. During the campaign, he worked hard to sell his vision to the people and won in all 21 local government areas, securing 422,664 votes. His closest rival, Nicholas Ukachukwu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), polled 99,445 votes — a gap of more than 320,000 votes.

    This result cements Soludo’s electoral legitimacy and gives him a clear mandate to drive his agenda without the shadow of a disputed outcome. It also strengthens his political standing, both in Anambra and nationally, providing leverage in governance, negotiations with the federal authorities, and in shaping the political narrative of the Southeast.

    The APGA:

    The APGA, the platform on which Soludo contested, also emerges stronger. The party retains control of the state, reinforcing its image as a regional force with deep roots. Even though its founder, Chukwuemeka Odimegwu-Ojukwu, passed away in 2011 and Peter Obi, the first governor elected under the party, later left over disagreements with his successor, the APGA has continued to hold sway in Anambra.

    Since 2006, the party has produced every governor of the state — Peter Obi (2006–2014), Virginia Etiaba (2006–2007), Willie Obiano (2014–2022), and now Soludo, who has just secured a fresh term. This enduring control confirms the party’s organisational depth and its ability to connect with voters at the grassroots.

    The latest victory reaffirms the APGA’s dominance in the state and validates its structure and brand. It shows that, despite internal splits and the rise of newer political movements, the APGA remains a powerful symbol of identity and continuity in Anambra politics.

    INEC and Amupitan:

    INEC and its new chairman, Professor Joash Amupitan, also count as winners. A smooth and credible election, especially in a politically sensitive region, boosts public confidence in the commission and its leadership. Unlike in the past, when logistical failures marred elections, this exercise began on time in nearly all parts of the state.

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    Reports indicate significant improvements in logistics and technology. While there were some cases of vote-buying and minor irregularities, the process was largely peaceful and efficient. About 49 per cent of polling units had INEC officials present by 7:30 a.m., compared to 28 per cent in 2021 — a major improvement.

    The BVAS devices functioned well, with only minor, quickly resolved glitches. Result uploads to the IReV portal were highly successful: INEC published results from 5,668 out of 5,720 polling units, a 99.09 per cent success rate.

    In short, the election marked progress in operational efficiency and transparency. The fact that results were declared and accepted without major disruption shows that INEC can conduct credible elections even in challenging contexts.

    The people:

    Voters and residents of Anambra are winners too, both practically and symbolically. A decisive outcome allows governance to move forward rather than being stuck in post-election disputes. Those who turned out to vote fulfilled their civic duty and expect their votes to count.

    On a symbolic level, an election that produces a broadly accepted result reinforces faith in the democratic process. It reminds citizens that their participation matters.

    Voter turnout roughly doubled from 10 per cent in 2021 to about 22 per cent this time — still low in absolute terms but a marked improvement. The 2021 poll took place under the shadow of insecurity and threats from non-state actors. This time, the security environment was much better. Some areas that were once no-go zones witnessed rallies and a peaceful voting day.

    According to groups such as Yiaga Africa, the main factor limiting turnout was voter apathy, driven by weak communication from political parties and a sense of disconnection among citizens. Even so, the improved environment and higher participation reflect a gradual restoration of trust.

    Tinubu and the FG:

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the Federal Government also stand to gain from the outcome. Tinubu appointed the new INEC chairman, whose first major test was handled successfully. A well-conducted election in a key state reduces the risk of political tension and strengthens the administration’s claims to uphold democratic norms.

    The president also earned credit for restraint. He did not impose a candidate on his party or interfere in the process, allowing INEC to operate independently. The result helps counter fears that Nigeria is drifting toward a one-party system. It also gives the Federal Government space to focus on governance rather than election-related disputes.

    Security agencies:

    The security agencies — police, military, and other law enforcement units — played their part effectively. Their presence ensured a peaceful election, with only isolated incidents reported despite earlier fears of violence.

    This performance strengthens their institutional reputation. In a political culture where elections can turn violent, maintaining peace enhances public confidence and shows that security forces can support, rather than disrupt, democracy.

    Democracy:

    Ultimately, democracy itself gained from the Anambra election. The process demonstrated that credible elections are still possible and that democratic institutions can function when given the space to do so.

    Observers agreed that the outcome reflected the will of voters and met the minimum standard of credibility. The use of BVAS and IReV technology improved transparency and reduced opportunities for manipulation.

    After the controversies that followed the 2023 general elections, a process that was largely transparent and technically sound offers a measure of reassurance. It suggests that reforms introduced by INEC are beginning to take root and that progress, while slow, is real.

    Conclusion:

    Soludo’s victory in Anambra touches several layers of Nigeria’s political ecosystem. It rewards the individual winner, strengthens his party, validates the electoral body, re-engages voters, and reinforces national stability. The security agencies earned credit for professionalism, while the Federal Government benefits from the perception of a fair contest.

    Above all, the election serves as a reminder that credible contests and active civic participation still matter. In a time of widespread cynicism, Anambra’s election stands as a small but important win for Nigerian democracy.

    Losers

    • By Emmanuel Oladesu, Deputy Editor

    Obi:

    The greatest loser in the exercise is Peter Obi, former governor and 2023 presidential aspirant of the Labour Party (LP). The visioner of the noisy, garulous and ‘structureless Obedient Movement’ lost his polling booth, underscoring his lack of popularity and loss of relevance at home.

    In the last general election, he proved his meetle, winning over 90 percent of the votes as presidential candidate in the state. However, after the poll, his party lost steam, no thanks to the protacted leadership crisis that hit the platform.

    Apart from being a former governor, Obi was also a vice presidential candidate on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2019. He was always fond of defecting from one party to the other. Although he made a feeble appearance during the campaigns, it never resonated with the people. Obi could not match the aura, intellect, pedigree, and charisma of Prof. Charles Chukwuma Soludo on the podium. The campaign train of the governor was simply electrifying.

    What the outcome of the weekend election has shown is that Obi’s political structure has been rattled and dismantled, and this portends a danger to his future ambition to rule the country. He has been demystified at home.

    Moghalu:

    George Moghalu of the LP is a serial contestant and an impatient politician. He is never strategic. Nobody plans to fail, but many fail to plan adequately, thereby boxing themselves to failure. Despite being a brilliant person, that quality never showed in the result of the election.

    It may be that the LP candidate miscalculated. Moghalu had wanted to build on the Obi’s mysterious success in 2023, oblivious of the dynamics of contemporary politics. He crashed, losing his deposit despite the bravado. Even, voters at his polling booth turned their backs at him.

    Some people believe that Moghalu betrayed the All Progressives Congress (APC), which gave him an opportunity to serve the country as head of the Nigerian Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA). He left the APC for LP when the Abure and Usman factions were locked in a battle of supremacy.  He had hoped to ride to power on the wing of Obi, who could not settle the rift and unite the party.

    He missed being candidate, until reason prevailed. It is now evident that he does not carry any weight, his strategy of leaning on past glory of an inconsistent leader having crumbled.

    The challenge is whether Moghalu would stay in the distressed Anambra LP chapter to rebuild it or defect to another party.

    LP:

    LP is always a party on the waiting list. It is perpectually a borrowed platform, always up for grab by aggrieved and bitter politicians from  other political parties. It is characterised by doubtful membership.

    Its founding authority, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), do not know what they can even use the party for. That gap is usually noticed. Therefore, LP is always a place of refuge for rejected aspirants from other parties who lost out in the intra-party selection process.

    The tragedy now is that the leadership is being disputed. Who is the authentic chairman of LP? Julius Abure or Esther Nenadi-Usman, who chairs the National Caretaker Committee? The caretaker committee won a case in court, but the umpire invited the leader of the other faction to crucial meetings.

    That logjam persisted up to the poll day. It nearly led to the forfeiture of the governorship ticket. The factions could not agree to campaign for the candidate, who warmed the ballot as a decorative figure. The outcome was predictable. Anambra LP failed.

    ADC:

    ADC was a joker, and its candidate, John Nwosu, was a comedian on poll day. In Anambra, the party is at half. It is the half of the PDP, which broke away during the crisis that led to the exit of the Abubakar Atiku camp. Up to now, the coalition pales into daydreaming. ADC is not moving forward. It is not moving backward too. It is at a standstill.

    Anambra poll was its first opportunity. It failed the popularity test woefully. Two reasons were responsible. First, the structure of ADC is weak. The name of the party is strange to the people. Second, it could not withstand the arsenal of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), which has maintained dominance in the state since 2003.

    ADC is still in an embroyic state. It is yet to have a definite party register. Its identity is still being formed. The PDP defectors and old ADC members are yet to come to terms. The challenge of harmonisation has not been resolved.

    The result is a sign of what ADC should expect in future polls, except its proposed coalition is consummated.

    PDP:

    The PDP is at a low ebb in the Southeast state. In 1999, it was the ruling party, with Chinwoke Mbadinuju as governor. Four years later, APGA came with a bang. It was first resisted by the PDP, which falsely installed Dr. Chris Ngige as governor in 2003. In 2009, the interloper was kicked out by the court.

    Since then, APGA has maintained its hold. Not even the threat by another interloper, Andy Uba, could stop it. As APGA continued to wax stronger in the state, PDP continued to decline.

    Even, it PDP and ADC had combined strengths, there was no way they could have displaced APGA.

    Currently, PDP is in disarray. The crisis is affecting the state chapters. It took the strategic intervention of the former Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki, for the party to have a governorship candidate in Anambra. The two camps could not easily agree on who should run.

    The abysmal performance was predictable. Can the chapter ever bounce back?

    Other smaller parties:

    There are at least other 10 smaller parties warming the register of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). They are dormant parties. In the past, those  mushroom parties were deregistered for failing to live to expectation. But there was uproar because some activists felt that freedom of association, assembly and political participation was being tampered with.

    There is no reason to keep on the register parties that indulge in self-deception. Including them on the ballot is meaningless.