The Nation Newspaper

Category: Special Report

  • Reforms take balance of payments surplus to $4.6b, FX reserves to rise

    Reforms take balance of payments surplus to $4.6b, FX reserves to rise

    The Balance of Payments (BOP) surplus, the ongoing surge in diaspora remittances and continued accretion to external reserves are direct outcomes of crucial financial sector reforms. The $4.60 billion BOP surplus recorded in the third quarter of 2025 marks a sharp turnaround from the deficit position in the previous quarter. This performance highlights strengthening external sector fundamentals, growing investor confidence, and the sustained impact of reforms in the foreign exchange market, monetary policy implementation and the domestic energy sector, reports Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE

    The monetary and fiscal authorities have made remarkable strides in restoring macroeconomic stability, bringing down inflation, enhancing data analytics, ending the practice of monetary financing of deficits, and narrowing the foreign exchange (FX) market gap to under two per cent. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reforms have played a pivotal role in organically rebuilding FX reserves, which are projected to surpass $51 billion this year, driven by stronger non-oil export performance and improved market functioning. These reforms have also spurred growth in key economic sectors and attracted a notable surge in foreign capital inflows.

    Reflecting these gains, Nigeria recorded a Balance of Payments (BOP) surplus of $4.60 billion in the third quarter of 2025, a turnaround from the deficit recorded in the preceding quarter, according to CBN data. The improvement was underpinned by a sustained current account surplus of $3.42 billion, supported by robust trade performance, resilient remittance inflows, higher financial flows, and continued accretion to external reserves. The goods account remained in surplus at $4.94 billion, reflecting higher export earnings and strengthened economic fundamentals during the period.

    “Exports increased to US$15.24 billion in Q3 2025, from US$14.90 billion in Q2 2025, on account of increases in crude oil and a refined petroleum products exports. The country is gradually switching from a net importer of refined petroleum products to a net exporter.  Import of petroleum products decreased by 12.7 per cent to US$1.65 billion,” the CBN said.

    Also, net out payments in the services account increased to US$4.07 billion in Q3 2025, from US$3.74 billion in Q2 2025. “The increase in net out- payments for services was due to increases in net import of transport, travel, insurance, computer & information, other business, and Government services not included elsewhere. The debit balance in the primary income account increased significantly to US$2.95 billion in Q3 2025, from US$1.25 billion in Q2 2025,” the report said.

    “This was largely attributable to repatriation of reinvested earnings by domestic banks on their foreign investments abroad especially on direct investments. The secondary income account balance decreased slightly to US$5.50 billion in Q3 2025, from US$5.51 billion in the preceding quarter. Personal transfers (workers’ remittance) from Nigerians in diaspora slightly decreased in Q3 2025 to US$5.24 billion, from US$5.30 billion in Q2 2025,” it added.

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    Crude oil exports rose to $8.45 billion, while exports of refined petroleum products increased by 44 per cent to $2.29 billion, indicating further progress in domestic refining capacity and Nigeria’s gradual transition from a net importer to a net exporter of refined petroleum products. Total goods exports stood at $15.24 billion, while imports of refined petroleum products declined by 12.7 per cent, resulting in an improved trade balance.

    Workers’ remittances also remained strong, with the secondary income account recording a surplus of $5.50 billion, including $5.24 billion in remittance inflows from Nigerians in the diaspora. Developments in the financial account further supported the overall BOP outcome, with Nigeria posting a net lending position of $0.32 billion.

    Foreign direct investment inflows rose to $0.72 billion, while portfolio investment inflows remained robust at $2.51 billion, reflecting improved investor sentiment and continued non-resident participation in domestic financial instruments. The country’s external reserves increased to $42.77 billion at end-September 2025, up from $37.81 billion at end-June, thereby strengthening Nigeria’s external buffers.

    According to the CBN, the Q3 2025 BOP outcome underscores strengthening external sector fundamentals, firmer investor confidence, and the continued impact of reforms in the foreign exchange market, monetary policy implementation, and the domestic energy sector. CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso had earlier reaffirmed that the banking system remains resilient, with continued vigilance on emerging risks. At the 60th Annual Bankers’ Dinner, he outlined the Bank’s 2026 priorities which include strengthening the banking system, ensuring price stability, modernising payments, deepening financial inclusion and supporting responsible fintech innovation.

    He also noted growth in digital payments, expansion of contactless cards, improved agent-banking controls, and Nigeria’s exit from the FATF grey list as major confidence boosters. He concluded by restating the bank’s commitment to disciplined, transparent, and forward-looking policies to keep Nigeria’s economy stable and positioned for sustainable growth.

    Journey through reforms

    The CBN had embarked on a series of bold reforms to attract more foreign capital to the economy, achieve price and exchange rate stability. In 2023, the new administration, alongside the CBN under Governor Cardoso, implemented landmark reforms to stabilise the economy. The authorities liberalised the foreign exchange market, ended central bank financing of the fiscal deficit, and reformed fuel subsidies. Simultaneously, the government strengthened revenue collection and took targeted measures to rein in the surging inflation rate. Since these reforms were implemented, international reserves have increased, and people can now access foreign exchange in the official market.

    Besides, Nigeria successfully returned to international capital markets last December and was recently upgraded by rating agencies. A new domestic, private refinery is positioning Nigeria up the value chain in a fully deregulated market. CBN’s policies, including the currency reforms, led to investment inflows from abroad and reduced interventions in the domestic forex market. The unification of exchange rates and the clearing of over $7 billion FX backlog raised the country’s investment outlook, with multilateral organizations, like the World Bank describing it as bold intervention to improve the economy’s sustainability in the long run.

    Also, Nigeria’s sovereign risk spread has fallen to the lowest level since January 2020, erasing the premium accumulated during the pandemic and subsequent strain on its economy. All these are deliberate efforts to woo investors and sustain capital inflows to the economy. In its efforts to tame inflation, the CBN recently hosted the Monetary Policy Forum 2025, featuring fiscal authorities, legislative, private sector, development partners, subject-matter experts, and scholars with the theme: “Managing the Disinflation Process.” The forum is a major push to improve monetary policy communication, foster dialogue, and collaborate on critical issues shaping monetary policy.

    During the event, Cardoso explained that the apex bank’s focus is to sustain price stability, the planned transition to an inflation-targeting framework, and strategies to restore purchasing power and ease economic hardship. He said the apex bank is continuing its disciplined approach to monetary policy, aimed at curbing inflation and stabilising the economy. Cardoso reiterated that the goal of the CBN is to ensure that monetary policy remains forward-looking, adaptive, and resilient.

    In addressing our economic challenges, collaboration is key: “Managing disinflation amidst persistent shocks requires not only robust policies but also coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities to anchor expectations and maintain investor confidence. Our focus must remain on price stability, the planned transition to an inflation-targeting framework, and strategies to restore purchasing power and ease economic hardship,” Cardoso said.

    The CBN also focused on strengthening the banking sector, introducing new minimum capital requirements for banks (effective March 2026) to ensure resilience and position Nigeria’s banking industry for a $1 trillion economy. These reforms and developments reflect the Bank’s commitment to creating an enabling environment for inclusive economic development.

    However, achieving macroeconomic stability requires sustained vigilance and a proactive monetary policy stance. “As we shift from unorthodox to orthodox monetary policy, the CBN remains committed to restoring confidence, strengthening policy credibility, and staying focused on its core mandate of price stability,” Cardoso stated.

    Continuing, he said monetary policy easing became necessary following a review of macroeconomic developments. According to him, the decision by the MPC to ease the policy stance was made in the light of improving inflation trends. “The committee’s decision to lower the monetary policy rate was predicated on the sustained disinflation recorded in the past five months, projections of declining inflation for the rest of 2025 and the need to support economic recovery efforts,” Cardoso said.

    Forex sources expand

    The CBN under Cardoso is cultivating multiple FX sources to increase dollar inflows, boost dollar access to manufacturers and retail end users. From moves to improve diaspora remittances through new product development, the granting licenses to new International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), implementing a willing buyer-willing seller FX model, and enabling timely access to naira liquidity for IMTOs, the apex bank has simplified dollar-inflow channels for authorized dealers and other players in the value chain. The move has led to substantial accretion to the gross FX reserves and supported the stability of the naira. Given that FX inflows to the economy are strategic in achieving monetary and fiscal policy stability, the CBN under Cardoso puts in a lot of efforts in attracting more inflows into the economy.

    Diaspora remittances to Nigeria, estimated at $23 billion annually remain a reliable source of forex to the domestic economy. There are also other sources and policies that are being explored by the apex bank to keep dollar inflows coming. The CBN’s initiatives have supported continued growth in these inflows, aligning with the institution’s objective of doubling formal remittance receipts within a year.

    Remittances into the economy are expected to rise further, supported by the CBN’s ongoing efforts to strengthen public confidence in the foreign exchange market, build a robust and inclusive banking system, and promote price stability—measures that are critical for sustaining long-term economic growth. Director of Trading at Verto, Charlie Bird, said dollar liquidity dynamic is now more balanced, with foreign investors and airlines able to repatriate funds. Speaking during Cordros Asset Management seminar titled: “The Naira Playbook,” he said Nigeria is now darling of foreign investors because of improved dollar liquidity in the economy due to positive CBN’s reforms.

    Economic gains through reforms

    According to Cardoso, over the past 12 months, Nigeria’s economy has transitioned from crisis management to laying the groundwork for a sustainable recovery. “After nearly a decade in which real GDP growth averaged about 2%, reforms have restored momentum and confidence in our broad macroeconomic environment. Our economy grew by 4.23 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, the strongest pace in four years, driven by improvements in telecommunications, financial services, and oil production,” he said.

    “More importantly in terms of long-term stability, inflation, while still high, has moderated consistently. From a peak of 34.6 per cent in November 2024, it has more than halved to 16.05 per cent in October 2025. This marks seven consecutive months of disinflation. Food inflation, the largest single component of the basket, fell to 13.12 per cent in October, down from 16.87 per cent in September and 21.87 per cent in August,” he said.

    This significant, steady decline in inflation is restoring real purchasing power for households and businesses. It also demonstrates disciplined execution and Nigeria’s return to orthodox monetary policy. “We continue with determination to bring inflation down further. The current double-digit rate cannot be acceptable. Price stability is the foundation of sustainable growth. Our transition to an inflation targeting framework is gaining traction. We have improved data analytics, strengthened communication, and ended monetary financing of fiscal deficits. These actions have strengthened monetary policy transmission and anchored expectations.”

  • Inside Lagos’ Opebi–Mende bridge project

    Inside Lagos’ Opebi–Mende bridge project

    In Lagos, infrastructure is never just about concrete and steel; it is about time, survival and the fragile balance of daily life. Along the Opebi–Mende corridor, a bridge meant to restore movement has instead suspended routines, strained businesses and tested public patience. While government speaks of vision and transformation, those living and working beneath the rising structure continue to adapt, wait and hope — measuring progress not by design plans, but by when normalcy finally returns, reports ZAINAB OLUFEMI.

    Some are hopeful, others exhausted, and many are quietly asking the same question: are we almost there, or are we still waiting? That question hangs in the air across parts of Ikej a and its surrounding corridors, where a major infrastructure project promised relief but has instead prolonged anticipation. Earlier, The Nation reported assurances from the Lagos State Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Mr. Gbenga Omotoso, who spoke confidently during an interactive session with members of the Lagos State Correspondents’ Chapel at Alausa, Ikeja.

    “All the beautiful projects that we have embarked upon will be completed soon. The Opebi–Mende Link Bridge will be commissioned before the end of this year. What remains now are just finishing touches,” Omotoso said. He stressed that Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu and his deputy, Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, operate a zero-tolerance policy for abandoned projects.

    For many Lagosians, the assurance was reassuring. After years of navigating gridlocks around Opebi, Allen, Maryland and Ojota, the bridge represented far more than concrete and steel. It symbolised movement, relief, and the possibility of reclaiming countless hours lost daily to traffic congestion. The bridge promised an alternative route, a release valve for some of Ikeja’s most congested arteries.

    But months later, the early excitement has given way to cautious waiting. A visit to the project corridor reveals a quieter, more complicated story—one of half-cleared roads, altered access points, and businesses learning to adapt amid dust, demolition and uncertainty. The bridge itself rises steadily, imposing and ambitious against the skyline. Yet its commissioning remains out of reach for commuters who had expected an open road by now, and for traders whose livelihoods have been reshaped by the prolonged construction phase.

    Along Opebi Road, the impact of the road expansion tied to the bridge project is immediate and impossible to ignore. Entire sections have been reshaped, sidewalks narrowed or removed, and familiar landmarks altered. For businesses lining the corridor, the changes have been disruptive. At an MTN outlet on Opebi Road, Grace Samuel, a company representative, recalled how demolition associated with the expansion caught many off guard. “They told us they wanted to expand the road so that two vehicles can pass easily. At first, we didn’t really believe it would happen the way it did. Then one day, they just started demolishing from that side. They broke part of our office,” she said.

    The demolition, she explained, disrupted long-standing parking arrangements and changed how customers accessed the office. What had once been a convenient stop became a logistical challenge. “Before, customers could park here. Now we have to park on the other side. That has affected convenience,” she said, adding that the company would have to bear the cost of renovating the damaged space.

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    Still, her frustration was tempered with optimism. Like many business owners along the corridor, she believes the long-term benefits will outweigh the short-term pain. “The road used to block traffic seriously. When it’s done, movement will be faster. We’re still coming back,” she said, expressing cautious faith in the project’s promise.

    A few streets away, the impact is less dramatic but no less significant at Sooyah Bistro in Ikeja. Here, the disruption has translated into a quiet but steady loss of walk-in customers. Omotola, a staff member at the restaurant, said construction activities drastically reduced foot traffic, forcing the business to rethink how it operates. “Our walk-in customers have really reduced,” she said. “Most of our orders now come from Chowdeck, Glovo and WhatsApp. People can’t locate us easily anymore.” The challenge, she explained, goes beyond visibility. Parking has become a major deterrent. “Customers are afraid their cars might be towed, so they don’t want to park,” she said.

    For small and medium-sized businesses that depend on spontaneous visits and easy access, these changes have been costly. Some have adjusted by shifting to delivery models, while others are simply enduring, hoping the end is near. For commuters, the experience is similarly mixed. Traffic diversions intended to ease construction have sometimes created new choke points, redistributing congestion rather than eliminating it. Drivers speak of longer detours, unfamiliar routes and the mental fatigue of daily uncertainty. Pedestrians navigate narrower walkways, often sharing space with vehicles in ways that feel unsafe.

    Although the business received prior notice before demolition began, Omotola said the timing of the exercise proved particularly damaging. According to her, construction commenced at a period when many businesses traditionally record their highest sales. “It happened around December, which is our peak period. Sales dropped,” she said, noting that the disruption came at a time when foot traffic and customer demand should ordinarily have been strongest.

    Despite the immediate losses, Omotola expressed cautious optimism that the inconvenience would eventually give way to long-term gains. She believes the road expansion, once completed, would improve access to the area and restore customer confidence. “The road expansion is a good idea. Once it’s completed, movement will be better and we expect more customers,” she added.

    For roadside traders operating outside formal shop structures, however, the hardship has been far more severe. Many of them lack the buffer or flexibility to absorb prolonged disruptions, making them particularly vulnerable to infrastructure projects of this scale. A food vendor, who requested anonymity, said her sales dropped sharply almost immediately after construction began. As access routes disappeared and the environment deteriorated, customers stopped coming. “Immediately they started the road, customers stopped coming,” she said. “There was nowhere to pass. Everywhere was dirty, especially during the rainy season.”

    Unlike shop owners who received advance notice, she said many roadside traders were caught unprepared. “That day was very stressful. We had already cooked. We had to pack food inside quickly while everywhere was dusty,” she recalled. Beyond the economic impact, the vendor said the construction has created serious health and safety concerns. Dust, debris, and exposed gutters now surround their trading spaces, posing risks to both vendors and customers, particularly those selling food.

    “It’s not safe now,” she said. “But when they finish the road, especially this gutter, things will be better. Rats and dirt won’t disturb us again.” Her words reflect a recurring theme along the construction corridor: hardship tempered by hope. While daily survival has become more difficult, many traders continue to endure, clinging to the belief that the completed project will ultimately improve their working environment.

    Despite the financial losses and health concerns, the vendor said she remains hopeful that the authorities will accelerate work and bring the project to a close. “I pray they finish it before the next rainy season,” she said. For many informal traders like her, the completion of the road is not just about better traffic flow. It represents the chance to rebuild livelihoods disrupted by months of uncertainty and to return to safer, cleaner conditions where business can once again thrive.

    Government urges patience as landmark bridge nears completion

    On the government’s side, officials insist that the ambition of the Opebi–Mende Link Bridge goes far beyond what is immediately visible on the ground. They argue that the project is not merely about easing traffic at a single corridor, but about delivering a long-term solution to some of Lagos’ most persistent mobility challenges. When contacted, the Director of Public Affairs at the Lagos State Ministry of Works, Mr. Sina Odunuga, was measured in his comments, offering few operational details but firm assurances about the project’s broader intent.

    According to him, the bridge was conceived as a transformational piece of infrastructure designed to address long-standing congestion issues while reshaping movement patterns across key parts of Ikeja and its adjoining districts. “The project will solve major traffic problems,” Odunuga said. “Transformation itself is progress. What you are seeing there, the vision is higher than what you see. The concept of the project is bigger than that.”

    In his view, the scale and symbolism of the bridge place it in the same category as some of Lagos State’s most iconic infrastructure developments. He likened it to the Ikoyi Link Bridge, which has since become both a functional transport artery and a visual landmark. “It is something like the Ikoyi Link Bridge. That’s how it’s supposed to look,” he said, suggesting that the Opebi–Mende project is intended to stand not only as a traffic solution but also as a statement of urban ambition.

    Odunuga added that the project was initiated by the current administration and would be completed under the same leadership, an assertion aimed at addressing public concerns about abandoned or prolonged infrastructure works. He said the government remains conscious of the need to balance transparency with responsible communication, especially on projects that directly affect daily life. “We are very careful not to give out too much information as regards the road,” he said, noting that premature timelines can sometimes raise expectations that are difficult to meet, particularly when construction is influenced by weather, logistics, and technical complexities.

    On the question of commissioning, Odunuga acknowledged the public’s impatience but stopped short of committing to a specific date. However, he was emphatic that the wait would not stretch indefinitely. “If it does not get commissioned this year, it will be within the first quarter of next year,” he said.

    For residents and commuters, the bridge has gradually become a familiar Lagos narrative — one defined by bold vision, daily inconvenience, and patient hope. It mirrors the trajectory of many large infrastructure projects in the city, where the promise of future relief often competes with the reality of present disruption. Motorists navigating the surrounding corridors continue to endure detours, narrowed roads and unpredictable traffic patterns. Business owners along the route grapple with reduced foot traffic and accessibility challenges, while pedestrians adapt to altered walkways and safety concerns. Yet amid the frustration, there is a shared understanding that Lagos’ growth demands difficult choices and temporary sacrifice.

    Urban planners and transport analysts note that projects of this scale rarely deliver immediate gratification. Their value, they argue, becomes evident over time — in reduced travel hours, improved connectivity, and the gradual easing of pressure on overburdened road networks. In that context, the true test of the Opebi–Mende Link Bridge will come not at its commissioning ceremony, but in the months that follow, as commuters begin to experience tangible improvements in their daily journeys.

    Ultimately, the success of the bridge will be measured not by press statements or architectural ambition, but by how effectively it restores time, movement and dignity to everyday life in one of Nigeria’s busiest urban centres. Until then, the Opebi–Mende Link Bridge stands as both a symbol of promise and a reminder of delay — rising steadily above the road, visible proof of an unfolding vision, while those below continue to wait for the relief they were told was just around the corner.

  • Cautious optimism over stronger manufacturing sector

    Cautious optimism over stronger manufacturing sector

    Despite the tough business environment last year, operators in the manufacturing sector benefited from improved macro-economic stability, which manifested in relative naira stability, easing inflationary pressures and economic growth of about 3.4 to 3.9 per cent. Encouraged by the measure of predictability that came their way, manufacturers and other businesses are cautiously optimistic about a stronger growth of the sector in 2026. They, however, hinge their optimism on fiscal policy clarity, sustained economic reforms and adequate infrastructure. Assistant Editor CHIKODI OKEREOCHA reports.

    Even before 2026 kicked in, a wind of optimism, though measured, was already sweeping through Nigeria’s manufacturing and business landscape, drawing strength from improved macro-economic stability in the previous year 2025.

    For instance, the local currency, the naira, was relatively stable, while inflation trended downwards from 34 per cent to 14.5 per cent, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) over several consecutive months.

    Also, with economic growth of about 3.4 to 3.9 per cent, heading towards four per cent, not a few manufacturers agree that 2025 was a relatively stable year for the sector. “It was a stable year. We saw stability in the naira, inflation trending downwards, and economic growth of about 3.4 to 3.9 per cent, heading towards four per cent. That stability was a good thing for manufacturers,” the Managing Director/CEO, Coleman Technical Industries Limited, Mr George Onafowokan said.

    Onafowokan, who spoke while assessing business conditions and expectations for the coming year, confirmed that manufacturers benefited from improved macroeconomic stability, including relative naira stability, easing inflation and steady economic growth. He also expressed optimism that clearer fiscal policies and sustained economic reforms could unlock stronger growth for the sector and, by extension, the economy, from 2026.

    The Director, Research and Economic Policy Division, Manufacturers’ Association of Nigeria (MAN), Dr Oluwasegun Osidipe, also projected a stronger Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, a stronger naira, a sustained decline in inflation, as well as improved access to credit for manufacturers and other businesses in 2026.

    Osidipe, who made the projections in Lagos at a news conference on the 2025 MAN Think Tank Session, however, predicated these projections on favourable oil prices, rising foreign investments, stable energy costs, and the effective implementation of key industrial and fiscal policies.  He said the projections, if actualised, would lead to higher manufacturing output.

    The 2025 MAN Think Tank Session provided a platform for academics, industry experts and policy strategists to engage in a constructive dialogue, share expertise and develop groundbreaking solutions to the pressing challenges affecting the manufacturing sector.

    At the Session, Osidipe specifically said: “For manufacturers, naira is projected to appreciate further to N1, 300–N1, 400/$, driven by global oil price recovery, stronger external reserves, robust export earnings, increased foreign investments, and remittance inflows. Headline inflation will decelerate further to 14 per cent, supported by easing food prices, stable energy prices, and appreciation of the naira.

    The MAN Director of Research further said: “The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is anticipated to implement further cuts in the benchmark interest rate to about 23 per cent, in line with disinflationary trend, and to stimulate credit expansion and output growth. Further reduction in lending rates and completion of the bank recapitalisation exercise will enhance credit availability to manufacturers, strengthening investment and capacity utilisation.”

    Osidipe did not stop there. He said for manufacturing output, real growth was projected to reach 3.1 per cent while contribution to real GDP was expected to rise to 10.2 per cent. He, however, said the expected gains will be propelled by the effective execution of new tax laws’ incentives, operationalisation of the National Single Window Project, and purposeful implementation of the Nigeria Industrial Policy in close alignment with the “Nigeria First” policy framework.

    While Nigeria’s economic growth of about 3.4 to 3.9 per cent was heading towards four per cent, according to Onafowokan, Osidipe aligned with him, noting that overall GDP growth was expected to reach four per cent in 2026 due to higher oil output and further improvement in fiscal space. He added that expansion in financial and manufacturing sectors, and heightened consumption during the election campaigns in Q4 2026, would also spur GDP growth.

    But as promising as 2026 appears, Onafowokan expressed his hope that the Federal Government will sign off on some fiscal policy recommendations, which, according to him, will impact manufacturers in terms of tariffs and help boost capacity utilisation and industry growth. He said many manufacturers were yet to fully benefit from improved macroeconomic stability due to delays in implementing key fiscal policies.

    The MD/CEO of Coleman, manufacturers of wires and cables, lamented that fiscal policy measures proposed since 2023 were yet to be signed, leading to missed opportunities in 2024 and 2025.

    “One key issue is the fiscal policy measures which have not been signed till now. We’ve missed 2024 and 2025, and we are hoping that by 2026, the government will sign off on these fiscal policy recommendations,” he said.

    However, looking ahead to 2026, which coincides with a pre-election year, Onafowokan expressed cautious optimism, citing positive budgetary signals, particularly increased capital expenditure, exchange rate stability and the prospect of easing interest rates.

    “We see a positive outlook for growth. There are growing domestic investment, renewed foreign direct investment, infrastructure development and opportunities in sectors like oil and gas, telecoms and fibre optics,” he said.

    “These developments could make 2026 a catalyst year for sustained strategic growth,” he emphasised, pointing out, however, that on the implementation of the new tax laws that began on January 1, 2026, misinformation is the biggest concern for businesses and investors. “There is more misinformation than correct information. The government needs to do more to explain the tax laws and their benefits,” he said.

    While commending aspects of the reforms that provide relief for low-income earners, Onafowokan warned that poor communication and immediate enforcement without sufficient transition time could distort markets, recalling how misinformation recently triggered significant losses in the stock market.

    He also clarified that withholding tax on savings interest remains a final tax, dismissing fears of double taxation, and urged authorities to intensify public education on the reforms. He, however, welcomed the Federal Government’s focus on security and infrastructure in the 2026 budget, describing both as critical enablers of economic growth.

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    “Security is crucial to investment and growth. Infrastructure spending—on roads, housing, power, hospitals and education—is a catalyst for development. It opens up new markets, creates jobs and drives economic expansion across regions,” he said.

    President of MAN, Otunba Francis Meshioye, could not agree less with Onafowokan. “Infrastructure gaps persist, particularly in logistics and transportation. Insecurity continues to inhibit progressive business planning and operations. In general, and despite the onset of relative stability, a lot still needs to be done to overcome macroeconomic headwinds,” he said.

    Meshioye, who spoke at the opening ceremony of the 3-day Made-in-Nigeria Exhibition as part of the Association’s 53rd Annual General Meeting (AGM) held in Lagos, recently, added that energy costs remain astronomically high, while access to credit is constrained by rising interest rates and limited long-term finance. “We must take intentional action to overcome these binding constraints,” he stated.

    Indeed, infrastructure, particularly the asphyxiating cost of energy or electricity has been thorn in the flesh of manufacturers. With the hike in electricity tariffs of more than 250 per cent, many manufacturers say their energy bills have become unbearable. Those who turned to diesel-powered generators spend up to half their operating costs on fuel.

    For instance, manufacturers’ cost of alternative energy in H1 2025 stood at N676.6 billion, according to data made available to The Nation by MAN. Though, down from N708.1 billion in H2 2024, the Association said the figure remained heavy burden on operational cost.

    “Power alone is a tax on productivity. You cannot talk about competitiveness when your factories run on self-generated power at four or five times what producers elsewhere pay,” lamented MAN’s Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir.

    Other persistent and binding constraints that might stand in the way to unlocking stronger growth for the manufacturing sector in 2026 and beyond, include policy inconsistencies, weak domestic demand due to high inflation and supply chain disruptions (like port inefficiencies) and high operating costs, among others. 

    Actionable path to realising the projected growth

     Despite the heart-warming macro-economic indicators in 2025 and the resultant favourable outlook and projections that have put manufacturers and other business in an expectant mood, unlocking stronger growth for the manufacturing sector in 2026 and beyond will not be a stroll in the park, considering the myriads of binding constraints that stand in the way.

    Ajayi-Kadir admitted that Nigeria’s economy is on a path of gradual recovery, a fact he said has been reaffirmed by the modest yet consecutive rise in the Manufacturers CEO’s Confidence Index (MCCI) since Q2 2025. He, however, said while the stabilisation path has been cleared, what lies ahead is the imperative of accelerated growth.

    He, therefore, said to sustain this trajectory in 2026 and beyond, exchange rate stability must be guarded with every available policy tool. “Currency stability is more than a macro-economic metric, it is a reflection of national resolve,” he stated, noting that “one of the biggest threats to the hard-won stabilisation is a decline in oil production, as witnessed in August and September.”

    Although Ajayi-Kadir admitted that global oil prices remain entirely outside Nigeria’s control, he, however, said the country retains considerable influence over its production levels; a domestic variable that must be managed with urgency and precision.

    “The government must, therefore, take decisive measures to reach the OPEC quota by tightening pipeline security and upgrading operational infrastructure. Also, the government should sustain the increase in refining capacity by forestalling any further industrial disputes in the mainstay of the economy,” he stated.

    He also called for further reduction of the benchmark interest rate by at least 200–300 basis points to make credit affordable for manufacturers as well as launch a Manufacturing Refinancing and Rediscounting Facility (MRRF) that allows banks to refinance approved manufacturing loans at single-digit rates for up to seven years.

    Although manufacturers commend the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN’s) recent benchmark interest rate cut, which, according to them, signals a welcome policy shift. They, however, insist that the time has come for the apex bank to take a bolder step by introducing a deeper rate cut that can meaningfully lower the cost of credit and stimulate real sector investment.

    “Growth cannot thrive where capital remains prohibitively expensive” Ajayi-Kadir emphasised, adding that on the fiscal front, the development and implementation of the Nigeria Industrial Policy is long overdue. “It (i.e. Industrial Policy) must be aligned with the “Nigeria First” Policy and highly private sector-driven, ensuring coherence between policy intent and industrial realities,” he said.

    Ajayi-Kadir further stated that as the country prepares for the implementation of new tax laws this January 2026, shared ownership and strict adherence to execution plans will be critical.

    He said: “Progressive tax reforms can only deliver their promise of higher revenue, improved living standards and a more enabling business environment when enforcement is disciplined and predictable.”

    Accordingly, he called for the establishment of a Tax Policy Implementation and Evaluation Unit under the Federal Ministry of Finance to regularly assess how the new tax regime affects investment, manufacturing costs and Medium, Small and Micro Enterprise (MSME) performance.

    President Bola Tinubu signed the Tax Reform Act in June, 2025. Rather than simply raising taxes, the law aimed to streamline the chaotic system, setting the stage for a new fiscal era starting January 2026. Accordingly, the new tax laws, which took effect from January 1, aims at simplifying tax compliance, broaden the tax base and boost revenue.

    The Nigeria Tax Act 2025 consolidates multiple tax laws, including Companies Income Tax, Personal Income Tax and Value Added Tax, into a unified framework. The reforms aim to promote fiscal stability, transparency, and accountability, while supporting economic growth and development.

    Ahead of its implementation, has thrown its weight behind the new tax regime, with Ajayi-Kadir saying that manufacturers are optimistic that a more business-friendly tax regime is in the offing. Their hope is that the tax reforms would put an end to multiple and sometimes illegal taxes by various tiers of government.

    This is because the reforms streamline revenue administration and eliminate multiple, overlapping taxes by consolidating over a dozen federal tax laws into a single unified statute and encouraging states to do the same.

    Continuing, Ajayi-Kadir stressed the need to categorise manufacturers as strategic users of gas, pointing out that this will remove the gap between what manufacturers and electricity generation companies pay per cubic foot of gas. He also harped on the need to introduce a stable, transparent gas pricing framework for manufacturers and prioritize local gas supply before exports.

    Other actionable recommendations put forward by the MAN D-G to boost the manufacturing sector’s output and competitiveness include offering tax credits and recognition awards to companies and consumers patronising locally manufactured goods and creating a dedicated manufacturing FX window to ensure access to forex for raw materials and machinery.

    Push for punitive measures for violators of Nigeria First policy

    President Tinubu, on May 5, 2025, approved the Renewed Hope Nigeria First policy that mandates all federal Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) to give absolute priority to Nigerian goods, services and know‑how when spending public funds.

    The policy, which mirrors the US President Donald Trump’s “America First” doctrine places Nigeria at the centre of all public procurement and business activity, with a strong emphasis on empowering local industries and reducing dependency on imports.

    The ‘Renewed Hope Nigeria First’ Policy was aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s domestic economy, prioritising local industry and boosting the country’s industrial transformation.

    Specifically, the policy focuses on accelerating industrialisation, promoting manufacturing, and leveraging digital technology to enhance local production and reduce reliance on raw material exports.

    Key elements of the policy include targeted funding for small-scale entrepreneurs and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), including N50 billion in grants and N75 billion for MSMEs and manufacturing through the Bank of Industry (BoI).

    The policy aligns with Nigeria’s broader industrial development goals, including the Nigeria Industrial Revolution Plan, which aims to significantly increase manufacturing’s contribution to GDP and create jobs by boosting local production and industrial capacity.

    But, MAN has urged the Federal Government to gazette policy and make it a binding law, with punitive measures for violators. Ajayi-Kadir said this was critical to give the policy legal standing, ensuring transparency, public awareness, and enforceability across government institutions and the private sector.

    While commending the Federal Government for the policy pronouncement, the MAN D-G stated that the country anxiously awaits the initiative’s expedited consummation and its effective implementation.

    He stressed the need to gazette the Nigeria First policy and make it a binding law, and punitive measures put in place for violators. According to him, the policy must quickly move from initiation to government policy, lest it suffers the same fate as the Executive Orders 003 and 005.

    Recall that the Federal Government, some years ago, put the spotlight on local manufacturing, coming out with the Executive Order 003, which stated that all Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) shall grant preference to local manufacturers in the procurement of goods and services.

    Also, the Executive Order 005 directed all MDAs to engage indigenous professionals in the planning, design and execution of national security projects and maximise in-country capacity in all contracts and transactions with science, technology and engineering components.

    Sadly, however, the Executive Orders 003 and 005 were marred by lax compliance and shoddy implementation.

    Ajayi-Kadir said with Nigeria First policy, “Nigeria must seize this moment to transform its manufacturing sector by prioritising the patronage of local products,” noting that “If we fail to nurture our own, we will forever be at the mercy of others.”

    He also called on consumers to prioritise and actively support locally made products to help stimulate demand for domestic manufacturing. “By choosing Nigerian-made goods, consumers can contribute to the sector’s resilience and growth, fostering economic development and job creation,” he said.

    In coming forward with the foregoing recommendations, Ajayi-Kadir said manufacturing, ultimately, remains the heartbeat of sustainable recovery and the catalyst for inclusive growth. He argued that no economy has ever prospered on consumption alone.

    “Nations rise by producing what they consume and exporting what they produce. To secure the gains of stabilisation and accelerate prosperity, Nigeria must make manufacturing the nucleus of its growth strategy,” he urged.

  • How financial regulations fixed perennial year-end cash scarcity

    How financial regulations fixed perennial year-end cash scarcity

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is reinforcing operational discipline to ensure that the financial system serves all Nigerians reliably, particularly by guaranteeing the availability of cash at all times. A committee set up and chaired by the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, to take a holistic look at the country’s recurring cash scarcity challenge appears to have brought much-needed relief to millions of Nigerians who depend on cash for daily living and business operations, reports Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE

    Nigerians are expressing renewed optimism as, for the first time in recent years, the Christmas season was celebrated without widespread complaints of cash scarcity or difficulty accessing money from banks and Automated Teller Machines (ATMs). For many years, the Christmas and New Year periods were routinely marred by perennial shortages of naira notes. During these festive seasons—and often long afterwards—bank customers struggled to withdraw cash from bank branches, ATMs, and, in some cases, Point of Sale (PoS) terminals.

    That pattern, however, appears to have changed following the intervention of a committee set up and chaired by the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso. The committee reviewed the recurring cash scarcity challenge and introduced measures aimed at easing the burden on Nigerians.

    Across markets in Lagos, Abuja, Kano, Calabar, and other major cities, traders and consumers alike commended the CBN for what they described as lasting solutions to a long-standing problem. Checks at several commercial bank branches showed that customers who required cash during the festive period were able to obtain it over the counter without difficulty. In addition, many bank ATMs were adequately loaded, allowing cardholders to make withdrawals seamlessly. In bank branches visited in Ibeju-Lekki, Victoria Island, and Ikoyi, the long queues traditionally associated with the season were largely absent.

    One bank customer, Mrs. Nkiru Onyema, said her experience marked a significant departure from previous years. “It took me 10 minutes to be paid by my bank. I am happy that the old practice of people queuing in banks and ATMs for cash withdrawals and deposits is over,” she said. According to her, the cash crunch has eased since banks began ensuring that their ATMs are sufficiently stocked, enabling customers who cannot access banking halls to withdraw cash conveniently from machines.

    Another customer, Stephen Abiodun, shared a similar experience after using his bank’s ATM. “After spending just 15 minutes, I was able to get cash from my bank’s ATM. The time people spent at the banking halls also reduced giving them more time to carry out other productive activities,” he said. Observations at bank branches in Garki, Abuja, Broad Street in Lagos, and the Ikeja axis also in Lagos revealed that ATMs were fully operational and dispensing cash.

    Reacting to the development, President of the Bank Customers Association of Nigeria (BCAN), Dr. Uju Ogubunka, said the improvement has brought significant relief to bank customers nationwide. Ogubunka, a former Registrar of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN), stressed that banks must continue to request adequate cash supplies from the CBN to meet their obligations to customers.

    Explaining how the feat was achieved, the CBN Governor spoke during the last bankers’ dinner organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos. According to him, the achievement was the result of close collaboration between the apex bank and commercial banks. “Our starting point was a comprehensive, end to end review of the entire cash lifecycle: from production, to transportation, to distribution, and eventual access by consumers,” he said.

    He added: “This holistic assessment enabled us to address root causes rather than symptoms. As a result, we recalibrated our cash printing models, issued guidelines on the optimal ATM to card ratio, strengthened requirements for CBN approval before ATM or branch closures, enforced sanctions on banks whose ATMs fail to dispense cash, and intensified supervision of payment agents and POS operators nationwide.”

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    Digital finance transformation

    Nigeria’s digital finance transformation accelerated in 2025, reflecting CBN’s twin priorities of fostering innovation while safeguarding stability across the payments ecosystem. Earlier this year, we extended our Payment System Vision roadmap to 2028, an ambitious commitment to modernise payments infrastructure and strengthen cybersecurity.

    According to the CBN, more than 12 million contactless payment cards are now in circulation. Our regulatory sandbox has expanded to over 40 fintech innovators, enabling safe experimentation and responsible scaling of new digital finance solutions. “Revised agent banking guidelines have tightened anti money laundering controls, including geo fencing of high risk areas, while improving consumer protection at the last mile. Integration across switching companies has improved, bringing Nigeria closer to seamless domestic interoperability,” it said.

    Supported by these measures, Nigeria today stands among Africa’s most advanced digital payments markets, with a dynamic fintech ecosystem that has produced eight of the continent’s nine unicorns. By mid-2025, leading fintech apps had surpassed 10 million downloads each, with one surpassing 50 million downloads, reflecting deep consumer adoption.

    ATM, POS transactions for foreign cards

    CBN recently directed banks and other financial institutions to ensure uninterrupted use of foreign-issued payment cards across ATMs, point-of-sale (POS) terminals and online platforms nationwide. In a circular CBN’s Financial Policy and Regulation Department and signed by its Director, Rita Sike, is expected to improve access to funds, security and user experience for tourists and Nigerians returning from the diaspora.

    She said: “In furtherance of ongoing efforts to facilitate access to funds and convenience, security, and user experience in foreign card usage for diasporans and tourists visiting Nigeria, all banks and non-bank acquirers of value are hereby directed to ensure uninterrupted and efficient local currency withdrawal, payment, and transfer services for users of foreign-issued payment cards nationwide.”

    Under the circular, banks and fintechs were instructed to ensure that all ATMs, POS and virtual terminals were configured to accept international cards, complied with card-scheme standards and possessed the required certifications. They were also required to maintain system availability to avoid failed transactions. The central bank said institutions must “implement multi-factor authentication for all withdrawals and online transactions exceeding $200 per day, $500 per week, and $1,000 per month (or its equivalent),” while ensuring compliance with approved ATM cash withdrawal limits.

    The CBN further directed banks and acquirers to clearly disclose exchange rates and charges to customers before completing transactions, maintain sufficient liquidity to settle transactions, and ensure that merchants were paid in local currency. They are expected to “clearly communicate the applicable exchange rate, which shall be market-driven and based on the prevailing official rate, as well as other associated charges to users,” the CBN said, adding that transactions should only be completed after customers have accepted the terms.

    To curb fraud and abuse, the circular required institutions to strengthen know-your-customer and anti-money laundering controls, monitor unusual transaction patterns, recalibrate fraud-monitoring systems to reduce false declines on legitimate foreign card transactions, and ensure that card-acceptance devices supported contactless payments for low-value transactions. Banks were also directed to require signed receipts for card-present transactions and request valid identity documents where transactions appeared suspicious. Suspicious transactions must be reported to the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit in line with existing regulations.

    For acquirers, the CBN mandated robust and auditable chargeback management processes, retention of transaction records for at least 12 months, and quarterly training for merchants and agent networks on dispute handling and chargebacks. The regulator warned that unresolved customer complaints escalated to the CBN would attract sanctions. Tourists and Nigerians returning from the diaspora who experienced difficulties using foreign cards were advised to report such incidents to the CBN’s Consumer Protection and Financial Inclusion Department. “The CBN will monitor compliance with this directive and will impose appropriate sanctions on any institution found in breach, in accordance with extant regulations,” it said. The move comes during the yuletide period, when a surge in visits by Nigerians living abroad and foreign tourists typically leads to increased reliance on foreign-issued cards for cash withdrawals and payments.

    Entrenching digital payments

    The apex bank has for years, looked beyond cash by entrenching digital payments among the populace. That explained why the CBN raised the innovation bar with the release of a new e-payment guidelines titled: “Migration to ISO 20022 Standard for Payment Messaging and Mandatory Geo-Tagging of Payment Terminals.”

    According to Cardoso, the Nigerian payments ecosystem has been ahead of many advanced economies, yet has not always received the recognition it deserves. “Many innovations that other countries are only now experiencing have been part of our system for years. We must celebrate these successes, as they contribute to building our global reputation. Nigeria’s dynamic fintech ecosystem has driven financial inclusion and positioned the country as a hub of innovation in Africa,” he said.

    Cardoso explained that despite a challenging external environment, Nigerian Fintechs continue to shine, attracting significant foreign investment and several have achieved global unicorn status this year. Their innovations, alongside other financial service providers, have fuelled growth in transactions and made financial services more affordable and accessible for many more Nigerians. “We must continue to leverage this channel to enhance access to finance and credit, particularly for under-served populations. However, I urge fintech companies and banks to ensure their platforms are not exploited for fraudulent activities. Strengthening the KYC onboarding process is essential to prevent malicious actors from exploiting our financial system.

    “Additionally, these institutions must prioritize improving transaction monitoring and bolstering consumer protection measures to ensure that digital channels remain safe, especially for the most vulnerable segments of our population.”

    Cardoso said that while the apex bank continues to lay the foundation for price stability and foster a conducive policy environment, the role of banks in this journey remains crucial. “At the Central Bank, we have intensified surveillance of market activities to ensure compliance. Together, we must build a market based on strong governance and transparency. As regulators, we will maintain a zero-tolerance approach to compliance violations,” he said.

    Sanctions for policy violations

    The CBN recently sanctioned Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) for failing to make naira notes available through automated teller machines (ATMs), during the yuletide season. Each bank was fined N150 million for non-compliance, in line with the CBN’s cash distribution guidelines, following spot checks on their branches. The enforcement action follows repeated warnings from the CBN to financial institutions to guarantee seamless cash availability, particularly during periods of high demand.

    Communication with the banks revealed that the fines were debited directly from their accounts with the apex bank. Hakama Sidi Ali, acting director of corporate communications at the CBN, confirmed the development, noting that “Ensuring seamless cash flow is paramount to maintaining public trust and economic stability. The CBN will not hesitate to impose further sanctions on any institution found violating its cash circulation guidelines,” she added.

    The CBN’s investigations and monitoring will continue to scrutinise cash hoarding and rationing, both at bank branches and by POS operators. The Central Bank is working with security agencies to crack down on illegal cash sales and operational violations, including enforcing POS operators’ daily cumulative withdrawal limit of N1.2 million. Cardoso had warned banks to strictly adhere to cash distribution policies or face severe penalties. He underscored the CBN’s commitment to maintaining a robust cash buffer to meet Nigerians’ needs. “Our focus remains on fostering trust, ensuring stability, and guaranteeing seamless cash circulation across the financial system,” Cardoso said.

  • Economic template for total reset as tax laws take effect

    Economic template for total reset as tax laws take effect

    Despite opposition to and the ripples that attended the introduction of the Federal Government’s new tax laws, their implementation is now a foregone conclusion. All that needs to be on the radar at the moment is monitoring and evaluation to ascertain if their impacts match government’s promises and assuage the concerns of the citizenry, writes Group Business Editor, SIMEON EBULU.

    Opposition to the newly introduced tax laws by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu came early. They faced their first litmus test at the meeting of the National Economic Council (NEC), chaired by the Vice-President, Kashim Shettima, with the 36 states’ governors in attendance. They had resolved at that early stage of deliberation to keep the laws in abeyance until, in their opinion, further consultation was done.

    NEC felt that the bills were sent to the National Assembly without sufficient consultation with key stakeholders, and as such, broader consultation was required to ensure alignment and inclusiveness for the benefit of everyone.

    Also, the proposition model for distributing Value Added Tax (VAT), which sought to change the existing formula to one based largely on derivation, was a major point of contention. Northern governors, in particular, argued that since corporations from which VAT proceeds are derived are located down south, it follows, so they posited, that VAT remittances would favour the region and disproportionately disadvantage the North, regardless of where products are consumed.

    The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), in league with some lawmakers, also latched on to this, arguing that introducing new taxes or increasing existing ones would further burden the already struggling populace and small businesses. There were also concerns that some aspects of the bills, regarding the creation of a centralised Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), to succeed the Federal Internal Revenue Service (FIRS), might disrupt the balance of fiscal federalism and potentially conflict with the Nigerian Constitution, requiring constitutional amendments.

    NEC rose from that meeting with a call to the President to withdraw the tax bills to give room for more consultation. At that point, the Tax Bills were thought to be dead on arrival, but no, not with Mr President. An opposition that would not recede from its avowed stance on stalling the tax laws, also met with a President that would not relent in his resolve to ensure that the right thing was done.

    Tinubu, rather than acceding to the NEC’s advice to withdraw the bills entirely, opted for the legislative process, including public hearings, as other avenues to address the concerns raised by NEC. That was the right thing to do. He turned the documents over to the people’s representatives, the National Assembly. The issues were eventually resolved through further dialogue and negotiation, leading to a revised VAT sharing formula that all parties, including the Northern Governors’ Forum, later endorsed.

    The Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee and arrowhead of the tax reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, took on the gauntlet and eventually pushed through the passage of the laws, which were assented to by Mr President in June, 2025.

    The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee engaged different strategies, including media interviews and stakeholder consultations, among others, to clarify and showcase the benefits of the reforms, particularly for low-income earners and small businesses. He said the reforms will not increase the tax burden on the poor, and that VAT will not apply to essential items, such as food, health and education. He pointed out that the new tax regime will benefit small businesses through zero corporate tax rates.

    Just as the dust was settling on the various controversies around the tax laws and the groundbreaking for the implementation was almost at hand, two issues suddenly popped up, the one around the allegation that the version of the laws passed by the National Assembly was different from what was gazetted, and the other, the alarm raised by Allen Onyema, the Chairman/CEO of Air Peace, that implementing the new Tax laws in their present format, would harm, or jeopardise airline businesses. The outcry further fueled and encouraged dissenting voices, with calls being made to the Presidency to investigate the allegation, and as well postpone the implementation of the new tax laws.

    Onyema, who aired his views on Arise News Television, said the taxes which include Customs duties on imported aircraft, aircraft parts and engines, as well as VAT on tickets will further burden airlines with additional costs.

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    “There is VAT now on the importation of aircraft. So, if you buy an aircraft of $80 million, you are supposed to pay 7.5 per cent of $80 million. Do the mathematics, from money borrowed from the bank; interest rates are 30 to 35 per cent. So, you bring in spare parts, you pay 7.5 per cent on your spare parts. The airline industry cannot withstand additional burdens under the new tax laws. If we implement that tax reform, Nigerian airlines will go down in three months,” he warned.

    Oyedele, however, allayed those fears, saying the new taxes were not designed to hinder businesses, let alone kill them. He said rather than increase air fares, the new tax laws will support Nigeria’s aviation industry and reduce costs. While acknowledging the challenges facing the aviation sector, particularly the burden of multiple taxes, levies and regulatory charges, Oyedele stressed “we are not responsible for the sector’s problems,” saying on the contrary, “the reforms are part of the solution, not the source of the problem.”

    Presidential seal

     In the midst of the discordant voices questioning the veracity of the new tax laws, the President’s voice sounded once again with an unmistakable air of finality, saying that implementing the new taxes across the board is a task that must be done. In an unprecedented move, intended to erase any doubts on his resolve about the tax matters, Tinubu personally issued a statement which, in all material particulars, put paid to any controversy on the tax issues and their admissibility into Nigeria’s tax codes, going forward.

    Tinubu, in the statement, said the tax laws will continue as planned, adding, “these reforms are a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build a fair, competitive and robust fiscal foundation for our country.” For those who have misconstrued the intent of the taxes to be anti-enterprise, saying their implementation will kill businesses, the President said the tax laws, on the contrary is not designed to raise taxes, but to support a structural reset, drive harmonisation and protect dignity while strengthening the social contract. While calling for stakeholders’ support at this “implementation phase,” he assured all Nigerians that the Federal Government would continue to act in the overriding public interest to ensure a tax system that supports prosperity and shared responsibility.

    Stakeholders’ endorsement

     With the roll-out of the new tax laws, the Manufacturers’ Association of Nigeria (MAN) has thrown its weight behind the new tax regime. MAN Director-General Segun Ajayi-Kadir said manufacturers are optimistic that a more business-friendly tax regime is in the offing.

    Manufacturers’ optimism is predicated on their belief that the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration’s tax reforms would put an end to multiple and sometimes illegal taxes by various tiers of government.

    This is on the strength of tax harmonisation promised by the reforms, which streamlines revenue administration and eliminates multiple, overlapping taxes by consolidating over a dozen federal tax laws into a single unified statute and encouraging states to do the same.

    The Managing Director/CEO of Coleman Technical Industries Limited, manufacturers of wires and cables, George Onafowokan, however, said the biggest concern for businesses and investors with regard to the implementation of the new tax laws is misinformation.

    “There is more misinformation than correct information. The government needs to do more to explain the tax laws and their benefits,” he said, while commending aspects of the reforms that provide relief for low-income earners.

    Onafowokan warned that poor communication and immediate enforcement without sufficient transition time could distort markets, recalling how misinformation recently triggered significant losses in the stock market.

    He also clarified that withholding tax on savings interest remains a final tax, dismissing fears of double taxation and urged authorities to intensify public education on the reforms.

    Onafowokan’s hint on ‘sufficient transition time’ aligns with suggestions by some manufacturers that there should be a brief pause in implementation to allow for wider stakeholder engagement and clear guidelines to ensure better compliance and acceptance.

    Despite manufacturers’ support, the implementation of the new tax regime hasn’t been without some controversies, one of which is the alleged discrepancies between the laws passed by the National Assembly and the gazetted versions.

    This led to calls for the suspension of its implementation by other groups and some lawmakers. Nonetheless, the Federal Government has kick- started the process, as the President affirmed, there’s “no going back.”

    The Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Oyedele, insisted there was no stopping the process.

    The President, Bank Customers’ Association of Nigeria (BCAN), Dr Uju Ogubunka, said taxation should be based on income. He said as a finance expert and consultant, transactions that are not based on income should not be taxed, saying he expects the government to properly educate the people on what should be taxed, to avoid fears and panic that would lead many businesses to operate underground and report nothing.

    “I think that across the world, what is usually taxed as income and not turnover. If you push businesses into believing that a lot of their resources will be taxed, they are likely to operate underground and ensure that not much of their funds pass through the banks.”

    He said that tax authorities should educate retirees on what the tax policy entails, whether retirement funds should be taxed, unless there are proceeds from established businesses.

    Ogubunka said the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has spent years pushing for financial inclusion, and a badly implemented tax policy could hurt such achievements. “The tax authorities should look out for justifiable income and tax it. They cannot tax anything that is not earned or capital for businesses. Once these lines are not crossed, I see business compliance rising and the economy better for it,” adding that a badly implemented tax policy could reduce businesses’ transactions in banks, and that will not impact positively on the economy.

    Also, the President/Chairman of Council of the Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria (CITN), Innocent Ohagwa, said as the pre-eminent tax institution in Nigeria, CITN’s concern is in ensuring that due legislative process is observed and not breached, especially in respect of an important subject matter as taxation, which thrives on exactitude of tax legislation.

    He said that the integrity of the tax process will command respect and enhance compliance, pointing out that no effort should be spared in getting it right from the onset to avoid overwhelming challenges in the future.

    He said tax authorities should strive to ensure that any observed discrepancies, whether arising from procedural lapses, administrative errors, or unauthorised alterations in the tax policy, are corrected. According to him, the Nigerian constitution and established parliamentary practice require that laws assented to and gazetted must be identical to those duly passed by the legislature and that any post-passage changes must follow constitutionally recognised procedures. He warned that deviation from this standard, intentional or otherwise, compromises the rule of law, separation of powers, predictability and stability in the tax system.

    Ohagwa insisted that the integrity of the legislative process is fundamental to the rule of law, good governance, and public confidence in democratic institutions. In his words: “Tax legislation, in particular, requires the highest level of accuracy, transparency, and procedural fidelity due to its far-reaching implications for government revenue, businesses, professionals and citizens,” he said.

    Expressing support for the new tax regime, the President of Nigeria Institution of Estate Surveyors and Valuers (NIESV), Dr Victor Alonge, said the relief in the tax composition is not only a plus for the real estate sector, but also, in his opinion, one of the most beneficial laws for Nigerian workers. He said “about 90 per cent of workers will not be paying taxes and small businesses are also exempted from taxation in the new tax regime,” stating that the relief will lead to higher disposable income which can be invested in real estate. Residential properties are not expected to pay VAT but construction companies are expected to pay. If properly managed, he said, the impact of taxation on building materials will not be pushed to subscribers.

    The CEO of Housing Development Advocacy Network (HDAN), Festus Adebayo, said that one of the likely impacts of the new tax regime, among others, is Rent Relief.

    He said: “Tenants can claim up to N200, 000 or 20 per cent of annual rent as tax relief, potentially increasing demand for rental properties.”

    He said a 1.5 per cent tax on high-value homes of about N500 million and above may discourage luxury property investments, potentially shifting focus to mid-range housing. Increased Capital Gains Tax (CGT) rates ranging from 30 per cent for companies and 15-25 per cent for individuals may affect property valuations and investment decisions,” he said.

    He said there will be VAT exemptions for residential properties, while commercial properties and construction services are still subject to 7.5 percent VAT. Adebayo, however, said that there will be withholding tax exemptions for Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) aimed at promoting investment in the sector.

    Expectedly, the new tax regime aims to boost revenue, promote transparency, and encourage affordable housing. It will slow luxury sales and impact investor confidence.

    Chief Operating Officer, QShelter, Adegbenga Alamu, said the new tax regime will have no negative effect on real estate. He said for Home Buyers, the interest is allowable as deduction before taxation, and it encourages people to buy from their savings.

    The capital market is expectant as the new tax laws take off. Market pundits expect harmonisation of taxes, clarity and certain reliefs in the new tax laws to positively impact corporate earnings, and thus the attractiveness and liquidity of the market.

    However, there were concerns about the possible negative effect of the introduction of what stakeholders described as excessive Capital Gains Tax (CGT).

    Managing Director, High Cap Securities, David Adonri, said while investors were not averse to overdue tax reform, the issue of Capital Gains Tax (CGT) has continued to fuel anxiety in the capital market.

    He said: “Soon after the enactment of the new Tax Act, equities reacted with a massive selloff due to the reintroduction of CGT at a massive rate of 30 per cent for transactions above N150 million. The selloffs stopped when the Minister of Finance promised to review the policy.” However, now that we are approaching implementation without concrete action, nobody can predict the reaction of investors moving forward.”

    A Senior Investment Banker and Fellow of Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), Abiodun Adeniran, also agreed that CGT was a major concern, but expressed optimism that the engagement between market stakeholders and the government would find a positive balance.

    “The specific capital market concern is on the CGT, and there are ongoing efforts in collaboration with the relevant authorities on how to mitigate the effects,” Adeniran said.

    Like in other sectors, operators in the Aviation Industry have expressed worry on how the implementation of the new tax law will affect air travel and other allied aviation services.

    Pilot and Aviation Economist, Captain Samuel Caulcrick and the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Aero Contractors, Charles Grant, opined that the new tax regime could plunge the air transport into further crisis, akin to similar fears expressed by the Chairman/CEO of Air Peace Airline, Allen Onyema.

    The airline chiefs have urged the Federal Government to deepen engagement with players across the economic spectrum, so as to achieve seamless and effective implementation of the new tax.

    Caulcrick warned that the economy, including the aviation ecosystem, could be negatively impacted and nosedive until everyone paid their fair share of taxes to the right coffers.

    He insisted that a market economy without a robust tax system lacked the main ingredient to prevent market distortions.

    Grant on his part, observed that   excessive taxation and policy inconsistencies, are crippling Nigerian airlines and threatening the sector’s capacity to contribute meaningfully to the economy.

    He insisted that the sector could not survive under the present newly introduced tax template.

    Grant said the government should see aviation as a platform for commerce, trade and integration, rather than a luxury to be slammed with high-end tax.

    “One cannot tax what doesn’t survive. You have to enable it before you extract,” he said.

    Grant said domestic passenger traffic had dropped by about three per cent since 2022, despite increasing travel demand in a country of over 200 million people.

    He attributed this decline to multiple taxes and rising operational costs, which he declared had pushed ticket prices beyond the reach of average travellers.

    He explained that airlines currently pay several levies, including Ticket Sales Charge (TSC), Passenger Service Charge (PSC), Value Added Tax (VAT), Customs Duties, navigation and over flight fees and ground-handling charges.

    These costs, he stated, make it difficult for the operators to remain profitable, or expand their route networks. “Passengers are being priced out, while airlines operate on razor-thin margins. The outcome is fewer flights, grounded aircraft, and job losses across the value chain.”

    He appealed to the government to restore VAT exemptions on aviation inputs, enforce Customs waivers and eliminate overlapping taxes that make air travel more expensive in Nigeria than in most African markets.

    The President of Association of Micro-Entrepreneurs of Nigeria (AMEN), Prince Savior Iche, raised a red flag over the potential economic fallout of the federal government’s newly signed tax reforms. Speaking on the implications of the Nigeria Tax Act 2025, Iche warned that the implementation of the new fiscal policies is set to trigger a significant hike in the prices of essential commodities, further squeezing the disposable income of average Nigerians.

    The AMEN leader expressed deep concern that the legislative changes would exacerbate the existing high cost of living, which many households are already struggling to manage. He pointed to the lingering effects of previous fiscal adjustments, specifically the Value Added Tax (VAT) increase implemented during the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari, as a primary source of the current economic hardship. According to Iche, many Nigerians are already “paying through their nose” due to the cumulative weight of various taxes and levies.

    A significant point of contention for the micro-entrepreneurial body is the impact of transaction-based taxes. Iche highlighted the burden of daily charges on bank transactions, noting that the frequency and volume of these deductions often go unnoticed by policymakers but represent a substantial drain on the capital of small business owners and the savings of ordinary citizens. He questioned whether the government truly appreciates the extent of the financial strain these incremental charges place on the public.

    “Everything will escalate and increase the cost of living,” Iche stated, emphasising that the new tax regime could not have come at a worse time. He argued that instead of providing relief, the upcoming changes might lead to a price surge across various sectors, as businesses seek to offset their increased tax liabilities by passing the costs onto consumers.

  • THE 2026 OUTLOOK: PROLOGUE

    THE 2026 OUTLOOK: PROLOGUE

    Nigeria’s audition year

    Nigeria does not step into 2026 so much as it drifts there, bearing the weight of a previous year that refused to end quietly.

    The country arrives with receipts folded into its pocket—grievances, catastrophes, breakthroughs and aspirations—each rustling to fate’s torrid leash.

    This is not a threshold crossed cleanly. It is a season entered with the gait of a people who have learned to listen for danger and opportunity at the same time.

    Nothing about 2026 feels incidental. Politics hums beneath ordinary speech, turning casual conversations into coded rehearsals. And every movement of the state seems angled toward a reckoning that lies a year ahead. The 2027 elections have leaked into the present, colouring legislation, stiffening alliances, and accentuating betrayals. The country senses this instinctively; a republic can feel when it is being tested, after all.

    This is the year when institutions reveal their efficiency depths, perhaps. Habits, hardened over decades will surface under pressure. The reflex to litigate politics, manage dissent instead of listening to it, and celebrate reforms faster than outcomes can mature, will meet a citizenry whose patience has thinned into hostile scrutiny.

    The ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC), enters the year psyched with ambition yet plagued by unease. Size, in Nigerian politics, has never guaranteed coherence. It breeds factions, competing centres of gravity, and rival interpretations of loyalty. Party congresses loom, and with them the familiar permutations: parallel meetings, disputed delegates, and consensus discovered after dissent has been buried. Courts, once again, will be invited to settle quarrels that party execs and ideology fail to resolve.  The judiciary will be tasked with lending legitimacy to disputes that should have been resolved long before robes entered the picture and injunctions became headline.

    Opposition politics moves differently, less encumbered by incumbency yet equally haunted by fragmentation. Economic pressure has given opposition language an edge it lacked in easier years. Inflation, transport costs, food prices no longer sound like abstract failures when spoken aloud. The impact is felt in kitchens and register at bus stops. Whether opposition figures cohere into a credible alternative matters less, for now, than the fact that competition itself has grown volatile. The certainty of outcomes has thinned as opposition politics, once strategised and choreographed, now improvises with guerrilla tactics.

    Inside the National Assembly, re-election anxiety influence behaviour as legislators listen more closely to party structures than to public mood. Oversight softens and controversial bills travel faster than persuasion ever could. The logic is brutally simple: survival first, principle later. Or never.

    This atmosphere makes law itself feel provisional. Nowhere is this clearer than in the arguments surrounding taxation. The tax reform laws scheduled to take effect at the beginning of 2026 have exposed a deeper crisis than statutory interpretation. Civil society groups question process as lawmakers dispute texts. The Presidency distances itself even as the chair of the tax reform committee offers clarification. Each political actor attempts to anchor/project authority, yet the real issue lies elsewhere.

    Trust is scarce in the Nigerian clime, hence, the process requires moral substance beyond procedural detail. When citizens suspect that laws can shape-shift between passage and publication, obedience erodes irredeemably. Taxation, more than any other policy, depends on belief, but while the state may compel payment, it cannot compel consent. Thus, compliance may congeal to resentment and even, sabotage, as distrust persists. This is the terrain 2026 inherits.

    Through it all, the economy splays into the year bearing bruises. Subsidy removal, currency volatility, and inflation have morphed from economic shocks to social conditions. Small businesses have collapsed and those that haven’t remain locked in an intense struggle against doomsday contingence. As households learn resilience in the face of militating odds, the government’s mantra of hope remains disciplined and insistent. Yet, the citizens adamantly ask: where is the relief?

    The figures are sobering. The proposed 2026 federal budget stands at roughly N58.18 trillion, ambitious in scale yet constricted by obligation. Debt servicing alone consumes N15.52 trillion. The deficit, projected at about 4.28 percent of GDP, bellows a familiar truth: the state dreams loudly while interest waits patiently. Nigeria’s public debt, reported at N152.4 trillion by mid-2025, shadows every promise made at the podium.

    A vast federal budget, heavy debt service obligations, and a persistent deficit sketch a portrait of ambition under constraint. Public debt figures requires governments at all levels to demonstrate that borrowing translates into tangible improvement. As the pressures of reform travel downward, impacting citizens already stretched thin, anger will not stem solely from hardship. Nigerians have endured difficulty before, what stings is asymmetry: sacrifice preached downward the economic totem pole, while insulation persists above. Calls for citizenry endurance must be matched by ruling class restraint. Evidence of transparent accounting and governance will matter more than rhetoric.

    Yet electoral pressure will accelerate action: 2026 will witness a surge of visible projects. Roads will multiply, power interventions will be announced, the security architecture will expand even as agricultural programmes reappear. But while some initiatives will reflect genuine intent, others will manifest as hurried legacies dressed for inspection.

    For business and investment, activity will persist despite macroeconomic stress. Agriculture will draw attention, driven by food insecurity’s political and economic weight. Agro-processing and value-chain infrastructure will beckon capital. Technology will continue its ascent, powered by a youth economy impatient with inefficiency. Fintech, digital services, and innovation hubs will expand where regulation allows scale. Energy will remain central as renewables, mini-grids, and embedded generation attract focus, responding to a power supply that taxes every enterprise. Still, opportunity will coexist with hazard. Policy inconsistency, regulatory surprises, insecurity, and permit politics will test resilience while agility rivals capital as a survival skill.

    Read Also: Oyetola, Basiru, APC leaders, group plot winning strategy for 2026 Osun guber seat

    This year, global currents will reshape domestic stakes. As the competition for critical minerals intensifies, supply chains will reorganise under protectionist pressure. For Nigeria, endowed with resources yet scarred by extractive history, the moment intones dual potential: local value addition could open doors to jobs and industrial depth. Transparent licensing and processing capacity could also shift the country’s role in global supply chains. Beyond the signalling of reform and intent to revolutionise the sector, the measure of success will lie in due process and credible institutions. Systems that resist corruption and reward patience will determine whether 2026 marks an industrial pivot or another chapter of export bereft of development.

    Security, too, enters the year wearing a harder face and heavier boots. The 2026 budget assigns N5.41 trillion to defence and internal security—the largest single allocation to any sector—thus signalling more proactive and aggressive security measures. A new model of surveillance and consolidation of military operations: unified command, and intelligence-led operations, may trigger a decisive shift in the extermination of bandits, terrorists, militias, and armed separatists. Such a measure could also ignite a reclassification of such non-state actors into a single category—terrorists—stripped of romantic euphemism.

    As President Tinubu’s administration emphasises a new culture of digital sovereignty, AI-assisted intelligence, nationwide digital forensics laboratories, and cyber defences built around financial and energy infrastructure, it must assert legitimacy at the grassroots through the Renewed Hope Ward Development Plan, an attempt to seed community intelligence across 8,809 wards.

    Yet money and digitised architecture may not adequately resolve geographic threats, if the northwest and northcentral regions remain porous, letting bandits and kidnappers exploit roam free. This may manifest more severely as humanitarian agencies warn of disruption of farming cycles at the peak of May season.

    Baring more decisive military operations, the northeast may further herald terrorist persistence in the blind spots of Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa; the southeast may simmer with separatist terror that flares unpredictably, despite official claims of gradual normalisation. The Niger Delta hums with the threat of sabotage as militancy and electoral bargaining converge around pipelines and protection contracts. Nigeria remains ranked high on the Global Terrorism Index, travel advisories urge caution, as Sahelian disorder seep toward the country’s weakened borders.

    Over all, these tarnish projections for 2027, a season analysts fear could loosen restraint and invite politically induced instability, even as non-physical threats like cyber fraud and sabotage of financial systems rise in sophistication. The state chooses scale and technology as its answer, but the year will test whether intelligence can outrun distrust, and security, pursued ambitiously, can still be felt in ordinary lives.

    Yet 2026 will not manifest only through anxiety. It also arrives swathed in spectacle and rhythm. Nigeria’s story has never been told by power alone. It has always been completed elsewhere: on dance floors, in recording studios, inside stadiums, and across glowing phone screens held by young hands that refuse to be “handled.” If politics triggers tension, culture will provide the counterpoint.

    Nigeria’s entertainment industry enters 2026 quite confidently. According to PwC, the country’s entertainment and media sector, valued at about $9 billion, is projected to reach $13.6 billion by 2028, making it the fastest-growing in Africa. This growth outpaces global averages and places Nigeria ahead of peers like Kenya, projected at $4.8 billion, and narrows the gap with South Africa’s more mature market.

    The drivers are visible everywhere: social media amplifies culture and monetises it, and internet advertising revenue, alone, is expected to double reflecting 2023-2028 estimates. Afrobeats and Nollywood will continue their outward spiral, reaching audiences that once seemed unreachable as culture becomes Nigeria’s most persuasive diplomat.

    Indeed, entertainment is no longer a side conversation, it has become a serious economy and technology deepens the transformation: artificial intelligence transforms production as 5G reconstitutes space for cloud gaming, immersive streaming, and new storytelling forms. Infrastructure gaps persist yet the direction is unmistakable.

    Sport, however, tells a more complicated story as Nigeria enters 2026 nursing disappointment. The Super Eagles’ failure to qualify for the FIFA World Cup—following a loss to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in late 2025—resonates jarringly among football fans, even as local sports authorities petition FIFA over DRC’s fielding of ineligible players thus seeking participation through the back door. Symbolically, absence from the world’s biggest stage unsettles a nation that has long prided itself on its football prowess—not minding losses in prize money, global acclaim, and commercial revenue.

    The Africa Cup of Nations in Morocco yet awaits, with Super Eagles preparing for the knockout rounds under pressure to the redeem the narrative. The Super Falcons equally look to reenact their Women’s Africa Cup of Nations championship with storied vigour. Domestically, attention turns inward as the federal government proposes a N78 billion spending for sports development, the largest capital allocation in years.

    Thus, Nigeria enters 2026 with its options intact. The country can refine systems while leaving human experience peripheral. It can also dignify policies with empathy and so doing earn the citizenry’s enduring goodwill and trust.

    In the end, this year will serve as an audition. Every nation approaching an election year lives through a rehearsal. For Nigeria, that rehearsal is called 2026.

  • 2026: Year of realignments, defining political battles

    2026: Year of realignments, defining political battles

    The eyes of the world are on Nigeria as the Africa’s most populous country warms up for 2027 electioneering. Political parties are preparing for congresses and conventions. Aspirants are returning to the drawing board. The National Assembly is amending the 1999 Constitution and reworking the Electoral Act. Deputy Editor, Emmanuel Oladesu, examines the power players, events and factors that will shape politics this year.

    Political conflicts, expectedly, would characterise most parts of the year, being the period of nominations for the general election and a critical year preceding another handover. The contestation would cut across parties, tiers of government, districts, and constituencies.

    Politicians would return to the drawing board to perfect strategies for scheming, horse trading and compromises. Intra-party rifts over shadow polls and inter-party crisis arising from hot competition and campaigns for power may unleash tension on the polity. There would, as usual, be resort to media war and propaganda.

    Attention may wholly shift from governance to politicking. Resignations from the federal cabinet and state executive councils, party congresses, zoning or rotational agitations, and partisan endorsements would serve as a prelude to the titanic battle of choice, change or affirmation of leadership.

    POWER PLAYERS

    Bola Ahmed Tinubu

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is on the hot seat. But he is determined to make Nigeria work. He is living up to expectation by fulfilling many of his campaign promises. But, much still needs to be accomplished.

    According to observers, he faces three challenges as he prepares for the third anniversary of his administration. These are economy, security and his quest for deserving continuity, which would gear up his rivals in other parties for determined or feeble resistance.

    From major indications, the economy is stabilising, thanks to bold socio-economic reforms. But there are still complaints that macro-economic stability without corresponding improvement in the quality of life of the citizenry does not inspire hope. Government has reported a revenue surge, following the blockage of loopholes in the oil sector and the strengthening of revenue generating agencies.

    On this front, the much-heralded tax reforms would come under further scrutiny. Last closed to controversy over the legislations following claims that what was gazetted was different from what the National Assembly passed. President Tinubu and his team insisted that this wasn’t the case and pressed on despite the spirited efforts of opposition figures to delegitimise the reforms. The world would be watching to see if the new legislations help the government achieve its pre-stated goals.

    Economic experts have advised that the money should be channelled into productive activities and promotion of public welfare, particularly by the sub-national units. Improvement should reflect in job creation, infrastructural development, revival of the manufacturing sector, stable electricity, consistent investment flow, and conducive environment for business growth.

    Security, as from this year, would be a major campaign issue. It is gratifying that apart from the military assistance and collaboration with the Unites States military, the Nigerian Armed Forces have doubled their efforts to rid the country of terror. Major breakthroughs are being recorded.

    Many of the security challenges, as argued by observers, may be politically motivated. Despite the improvement much still needs to be accomplished, and with speed.

    Nigerians expect the actualisation of state or multi-layer policing through constitutional amendment by the National Assembly. The lawmakers – many of who cannot even go to their towns, constituencies and districts out of fear of banditry, kidnapping and other forms of violence – should take up the challenge of constitution review with patriotism and passion in the new year.

    Eyes will also be on the highly rated Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa, to justify the huge confidence reposed in him by Nigerians across the six zones. He has been pulled back from retirement to take up the patriotic duty of liberating the North from terror and banditry. With the right military tactics, strategies, personnel, equipment and cooperation of all stakeholders, he should be able to make a difference, and without controversy over real or imagined ransom payment.

    There is no doubt that President Tinubu’s re-election prospects would be significantly boosted by any success he is able to achieve in the war against insecurity. Aside collaboration with foreign powers, there is also effort being made to procure more armaments for the armed forces. Hopefully, these efforts would change narrative for the better in large parts of Northern Nigeria.

    In his ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Tinubu, who has been endorsed for a second term, may be warming up for a coronation as candidate during the presidential convention. But the endorsement by the majority does not prevent interested stalwarts from throwing their hats into the ring. The only difference between APC and other parties is that presidential nomination squabble or tension in the ruling party would be so minimal while the opposition parties may still have to contend with peculiar internal contradictions, division and other inevitable partisan hurdles.

    As a politician and active player, the president’s attention may be distracted by power play and scheming that’s bound to dominate 2026 as the country builds up to next year’s general election.

    Atiku Abubakar and ADC

    At almost 80, the lion is still roaring, but there is no prey in sight to devour. For the old political warhorse, 2026 is critical to a long standing ambition to rule Nigeria, an aspiration he developed 33 years ago.

    On six occasions – 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023, the crown eluded him, owing to a combination of factors, including wrong timing, bad strategy, impatience, miscalculation, inconsistency, zoning and diminishing public affection for his brand. This has cast doubt on his pedigree as a learner at the feet of the great Tafida Katsina, General Shehu Yar’Adua, founder of Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM).

    Yet, Atiku can only be ignored to the peril of his opponents in contemporary Nigerian politics. The former vice president came second in the 2023 elections with over seven million votes. He is undaunted and fired by courage. But his platform is now somehow defective, less formidable and fast regressing into a status of mere social club of old Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) comrades.

    His exit from PDP, which he co-founded in 1998/99, to the little known African Democratic Congress (ADC), which affirmed the split in the PDP, was a turning point in his political career.  No governor defected along with him; not even the governor of his native Adamawa State, Ahmadu Fintiri.

    ADC is not waxing stronger, despite the bravado and boastings by the gerontocrats around Atiku, who have lost effective mobilisation prowess in their states. It is not breaking new grounds; it is not making in-roads into the South, Northwest and North-Central.

    Also, the proposed coalition has not seen the light of the day. There is deep-seated friction among the coalition partners neck-deep in discussions on the platform of fragile parties.

    Why the coalition is troubled is that those around the former VP convey the impression that there is a predetermined agenda to make Atiku its presidential candidate. 

    The activities of the party are not held at its secretariat. ADC holds court in the Atiku campaign office in Abuja.

    Zoning is not an issue, and whether there should be power rotation between the North and South is not the concern of those now taking refuge in ADC. If the presidential bid of Atiku collapses, the party goes with it.

    In short, the coalition or alliance isn’t gathering traction because there was no agreement on its leadership structure, philosophy, focus, and candidate. Its goal of removing Tinubu as president is restrictive. There is even quarrel among Southwest, Southeast and South-South members about the choice of presidential running mate ahead of the convention.

    Where is the coalition curator, Nasir El-Rufai, in all these coalition drive? How effective is regional bullying? Who are the new faces being attracted into the so-called movement? Why are governors, ex-governors and National Assembly members shunning the platform and gravitating to APC?

    Former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, who has been part of the coalition talks, has finally joined ADC. Not all the chieftains of the crisis-ridden Labour Party (LP) defected along with him. Governor Alex Otti said he preferred to broker peace in the party instead of jumping ship.

    Details of the agreement that motivated him to join the party are unknown. For now, the only implication of his defection is that the 2027 contest may be a three-horse race involving majorly President Tinubu of the ruling APC, and the candidates of PDP and ADC.

    Read Also: 2026: Achudume calls for integrity, accountability

    Peter Obi

    Peter Obi, symbol of the ‘Obedient Movement,’ is intensifying consultations on his presidential ambition, which collapsed in 2023, despite his over six million votes.

    Factors that aided him then were ethnicity and religion, which were exploited to devastating effects. A serial defector, Obi would have defected to the ADC before now, but the potential offer of running mate to Atiku was not encouraging to his group, which hibernated in the crisis-ridden LP. It is confounding that a politician who cannot resolve the LP logjam and unite the Julius Abure and Nenadi-Usman factions is vying for president of the most populous and heterogeneous country in Africa.

    Unless Atiku declines to contest, which is a remote possibility, Obi’s best bet is LP, despite the polarisation and diminishing appeal of a third force. But his ditching the platform for ADC suggests that he no longer sees it as a viable vehicle to actualise his ambition.

    If Atiku contests, it may seal Obi’s chances of getting the ticket. There are strong suggestions that he may have settled for the lesser option of running as Atiku’s number two. That prospect is likely to polarise his base. Already, the likes of Professor Pat Utomi have vowed to withdraw support if the former Anambra governor accepts the undercard option.

    Obi is a critic without facts, a champion of geographical expression, a beneficiary of politico-religious manipulation and an inconsistent contestant – always eager to lean on a borrowed platform, but lacking the leadership skills required for party nurturing, crisis-resolution, reconciliation, cohesion and harmony.

    Still, he remains visible by the grace of his internet warriors who may not be able to convert propaganda to votes. How he will upstage Atiku in ADC is left to be seen.

    Rabiu Kwankwaso

    A lone ranger, the eminent politician remains an idol in Kano, where his party, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), holds sway.

    But recently his Kwakwanshiya group has been decimated. APC leaders, including Deputy Senate President Jibrin Barau and former national chairman Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, are working hard to pull the rug from off his feet. Some observers, however, don’t believe that this onslaught heralds Kwakwanso’s displacement as a factor in Kano.

    Also, the lone NNPP governor of Kano, Abba Yusuf, has opened talks with the APC on possible defection. Throughout the last week events leading to his decamping have been building up. Matters came to a head with a Kano State High Court court affirming the suspension of Kwankwaso ally, Hashimu Suleiman-Dungurawa, as Kano NNPP state chairman.

    In his place Hon. Abdullahi Zubairu Abiya, favoured by those loyal to Governor Yusuf, was confirmed Acting State Chairman. In reaction the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party dissolved ward, Local Government and state executive committees across the state. All these underscore the cracks in the party.

    APC and ADC are making gestures to the NNPP leader for collaboration. So far, there has been no convincing response. But predictably, Kwankwaso will not be off the radar during the electioneering.

    The PDP factions

    The PDP is currently down. Its two factions, led by Tanimu Turaki (SAN) and Nyesom Wike/Sam Anyanwu, are in court waging a supremacy war. The gladiators in rival camps are flexing muscles.

    The main opposition party has been in turmoil since the 2022 presidential convention. Its leadership has been a subject of dispute. But with four loyal governors – Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa), Bala Mohammed (Bauchi), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara) and Seyi Makinde (Oyo), PDP is still stronger than the Alliance for Democracy (AD) of old which went with the wind of the Afenifere crisis. Makinde is said to be eyeing its presidential ticket.

    The outcome of the litigation over the party leadership will show the way forward for the PDP ahead of the electioneering. The prospects don’t look good. The Bala Mohammed-Makinde wing of party defied two clear judgments to hold its Ibadan convention which threw up the disputed Turaki leadership.

    That legal roadblock recently forced the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to expressly state it doesn’t recognise the outcome of the convention held in the Oyo State capital.

    Those legal woes are also blamed for the mass defection of the party’s governors to APC in recent times out of fear that they may not have a platform to prosecute their re-election.

    Most observers argue that unless calmer heads within the party are able to unite all stakeholders around the caretaker leadership proposal, PDP would still be in legal coma when voters go to the polls in March next year.

    Nyesom Wike and the Rivers factors

    Love him or hate him, the Federal Capital Territory Minister, Nyesom Wike, has become a political factor no one can ignore. His bitter fight with Atiku over the 2023 PDP presidential ticket snowballed into the mutually assured destruction that has brought the main opposition party to its knees. While the former fled to a platform where his word would be law, Wike remains in PDP fighting a rearguard battle for control.

    Having fallen out with the Atiku wing of the party, the former Rivers State governor’s embrace of Tinubu’s presidential was a masterstroke that delivered his state’s strategic votes to APC. Ever since, the incumbent president has held him close – no doubt aware of his political value.

    This year would see the political collaboration between the two men continue despite the differences Wike has with his erstwhile godson, Governor Siminalayi Fubara.

    The minister is currently executing an interesting political manoeuvre that sees him exercising influence in Rivers APC and PDP. He openly declared last month that the structures of the two parties had coalesced into one to further the reelection bid of President Tinubu.

    It’s a different matter entirely when it comes to Fubara’s second term ambition. Despite the governor’s defection to the APC, many observers say a scenario similar to that which played out in Lagos State, where former Governor Akinwumi Ambode was denied a return ticket, could play out in Rivers. In fact, the peace deal which Fubara signed to secure calm in his domain may well be the noose currently hanging around his neck.

    But more than anything, his relationship with Wike is clearly irretrievably broken. So, in the coming months, expect more war songs and jibes like ‘Dey your dey, make I dey my dey,’ ‘As e dey pain dem, e dey sweet us’, followed by the most comic of dance steps. Rivers State politics is set to serve up the most entertaining drama in the run up to 2027.

    INEC, by-elections and reforms

    The Chairman of INEC, Prof. Ojo Amupitan (SAN), would have an opportunity to prove his mettle as an umpire.

    He has two senatorial by-elections to conduct in Ondo South, where Senator Jimoh Ibrahim is vacating his seat to take up an ambassadorial appointment, and Delta North, where a vacancy now exists, following the death of  Senator Peter Nwaoboshi.

    Then, Ekiti and Osun governorship polls will follow. What Nigerians expect from Amupitan is the sustenance of the reforms initiated by his precedessor, Prof. Yakubu Mahmood, in his bid to foster transparency and accountability. The greatest expectation is the electronic uploading, display and transmission of results.

    INEC will be rightly guided by the 1999 Constitution (as amended) and the Electoral Act.

    Currently, 18 political parties are on its register. In September last year, 14 associations that applied for registration were shortlisted for vetting. The commission would have to take a final decision on their qualification for registration.

    A source said some prominent northerners are behind one of the associations. They look forward to the registration which will provide an opportunity for a platform outside PDP, ADC, NNPP and LP to challenge the ruling APC in 2027.

    INEC will commence the implementation of the electioneering schedule through its observation of the party congresses and convention. APC is likely to hold its national convention in March.

    Ekiti election

    Ekiti is warming up for an off-season governorship election. The candidate to beat is Governor Biodun Oyebanji of APC, who is seeking re-election. The poll would be a referendum on his performance as governor. While Oyebanji would be highlighting his achievements during the campaigns, other flagbearers – Ambassador Dare Bejide of ADC and Dr. Wole Oluyede of PDP – would be soliciting for votes based on their campaign promises.

    Oluyede’s prospects are, however, uncerstain given that his name was missing from the provisional list of candidates released by INEC. It was a fallout of the PDP leadership crisis. INEC has refused to recognise the two factions locked in supremacy battle.

    There are 16 local governments in Ekiti. They are run by APC chieftains. The members of the House of Assembly and Representatives, and three senators also belong to the ruling party.

    Apart from the four predecessors – Niyi Adebayo, Ayo Fayose, Segun Oni and Kayode Fayemi – who are rooting for Oyebanji, many prominent indigenes, traditional rulers, religious leaders, women and youth groups have endorsed him for a second term.

    But there are also those against him in the party over the outcome of the primary that produced him as standard bearer. These are the supporters of Kayode Ojo, an engineer from Ikoro-Ekiti and University of Nigeria, Nsukka (UNN) Pro-chancellor, who are not happy about his disqualification, based on party guidelines.

    Without them, Oyebanji will win. But the onus is on the party leadership to reconcile the aggrieved elements with the fold. However, no election can be a walk over. Over-confidence should be avoided. The ruling party cannot afford to sleep on guard.

    Certain elements in Ekiti are peddling falsehood about zoning. This is not a factor in the state. The state was divided into three senatorial districts for political expediency. From the days of Pelupelu, Ekiti has been one indivisible zone.

    Osun poll

    This exercise will generate excitment in the Southwest and beyond. Three candidates – Dancing Governor Ademola Adeleke of Accord Party (AP), Bola Oyebamiji of APC and Najeem Salam of ADC will clash during in a titanic battle for the soul of the State of Living Springs.

    The three of them once belonged to APC. Adeleke, son of Senator Ayoola Adeleke, is younger brother of the grassroots politician, Senator Isiaka Serubawon Adeleke. He succeeded him in the Senate after his demise.

    Oyebamiji was a commissioner under former Governor Gboyega Oyetola when Salam was Speaker of the House of Assembly.

    Zoning is a settled matter. The trio are from Osun West Senatorial District to which the tickets were unofficially zoned. Their running mates, who would be announced soon, would come from either Osun Central or Ife/Ijesa axis.

    Adeleke, a populist governor and entertainer, was running from pillar to post after his original party, PDP, ran into trouble. Although a loyal party member, he had to defect to Accord to avoid uncertainties. The elite of Osun believe that his performing is not impressive. But he is popular among the masses who love his unconventional ways.

    Adeleke will lean on the wealth of his illustrious family and the support of the distressed PDP chapter during the poll. The three PDP senators have vowed to support the President’s second term ambition. They are likely to extend the same gesture to the APC governorship candidate.

    The governor has promised to mobilise for President Tinubu’s re-election. But the president’s party is at loggerheads with him. He faces a dilemma.

    The most experienced and prepared candidate is Oyebamiji, former Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), Lokoja. The people of Osun take him serious because he has no baggage. He is competent, resourceful and highly knowledgeable about state finance and financial engineering. However, there is need for deeper reconciliation to halt post-primary crisis arising from the consensus option. While real opponents pose threats, internal opposition can undermine strategies for victory.

    ADC is seriously mobilising in Osun. The mobilisation has kept the national secretary, Chief Rauf Aregbesola, busy. But, there is a crack in the chapter. The supporters of Moshood Adeoti were dazed that the leader could dump the deputy leader for the former Speaker.

    Analysts have predicted a stiff contest in Osun as former colleagues in the same party clash because of political differences.

    All in all, 2026 promises to be an exciting year where some individuals would rise politically and others would consolidate their positions. But it could also presage the retirement of some old warhorses who have dominated the power space in the last three to four decades.  

  • National Security: Prospects and challenges

    National Security: Prospects and challenges

    As Nigeria moves toward 2026, its national security environment is under sustained pressure from multiple, overlapping threats. Terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, separatist violence and election-related risks now cut across regions, stretching the capacity of the state and testing the resilience of its security institutions.
    The challenge is no longer defined solely by firepower. Criminal and extremist networks increasingly overlap, forests and cyberspace have become active security frontiers, and public expectations for both safety and accountability continue to rise. In response, Nigeria’s security strategy is being forced to evolve toward intelligence-led operations, deeper inter-agency coordination and preventive action.
    Against this backdrop, 2026 emerges as a critical test for the country’s security architecture, the military, intelligence services and the police, whose collective performance will shape national stability in the lead-up to the 2027 general elections. NICHOLAS KALU, MUSA UMAR BOLOGI AND GBENGA OMOKHUNU report:

    DSS under Ajayi — Quiet reforms, hard choices and the 2026 test

    As Nigeria confronts one of its most complex internal security environments in more than a decade, the Department of State Services (DSS) has operated largely outside public glare, yet remains central to whether the country stabilises or slips deeper into cycles of violence. Under its current Director-General, Mr. Oluwatosin Adeola Ajayi, the Service has embarked on a cautious but notable recalibration, one that prioritises intelligence discipline, inter-agency synergy and institutional restraint.

    With 2026 approaching as a politically sensitive and security-heavy year, the DSS stands at a defining moment: to consolidate recent gains or be overwhelmed by rising expectations.

    Ajayi assumed office in August 2024, at a time when confidence in Nigeria’s intelligence architecture had been shaken. His emergence marked a deliberate shift away from confrontation-driven internal security management toward a more methodical intelligence-first posture.

    One of the earliest indicators of this shift was the DSS’s compliance with court orders on prolonged detentions. In 2025, the Service quietly released several individuals previously held without trial and paid court-mandated compensations in cases of unlawful detention. These actions, acknowledged by senior legal stakeholders, helped to de-escalate long-running tensions between the DSS, the judiciary and civil society.

    Though not dramatic in operational terms, these steps restored a measure of institutional credibility and reduced legal distractions that had historically drained the Service’s focus.

    Operational achievements beneath the surface

    Operationally, the DSS under Ajayi has focused less on publicity and more on intelligence coordination. This approach became evident in high-value counter-terrorism outcomes recorded in 2025, particularly the arrest of senior Ansaru terrorist leaders Abu Baraa and Mahmuda, figures linked to the Kuje correctional facility attack and multiple high-profile abductions in the North-West and North-Central regions.

    According to the Office of the National Security Adviser, the arrests followed months of layered intelligence work involving surveillance, human intelligence and technical tracking, signalling a maturation of intelligence fusion involving the DSS, military intelligence and other agencies.

    A key policy turning point came late in 2025 when President Bola Tinubu directed the DSS to deploy trained forest guards nationwide, tasking them with flushing out terrorists and bandits exploiting Nigeria’s vast forest corridors.

    The directive placed the DSS at the centre of a new territorial intelligence strategy, one that recognises forests not just as military theatres but as intelligence ecosystems requiring sustained presence, local sources and long-term monitoring. For Ajayi, the challenge has been translating training into operational effectiveness without over-militarising intelligence roles.

    Challenges moving into 2026

    The DSS faces formidable challenges in 2026 which include expanding threat geography, with terrorism, banditry and separatist violence no longer confined to predictable regions, intelligence saturation, as multiple threats compete for limited analytical and operational resources, election-related risks, with the 2027 general elections approaching, heightening the risk of politically motivated violence, sabotage and foreign interference, and public expectation gaps, as Nigerians increasingly demand visible security outcomes from institutions designed to operate invisibly

    Looking ahead, several trends are likely to define the DSS under Ajayi in 2026:

    Intelligence before force

    The DSS is expected to deepen its emphasis on preventive intelligence, prioritising disruption of plots before they manifest into attacks. This includes tighter monitoring of extremist financing, online radicalisation and cross-border movements.

    Technology-driven intelligence

    With increased budgetary allocation to the security sector, the DSS is projected to expand investments in signals intelligence, cyber-monitoring and data analytics, enhancing early-warning capacity.

    Deeper inter-agency fusion

    Successful joint operations in 2025 are likely to encourage more structured intelligence-sharing platforms between the DSS, the military, the Police and ONSA, reducing duplication and rivalry.

    Election security role

    Without direct visibility, the DSS will play a critical background role in election security, identifying flashpoints, monitoring political violence triggers and advising preventive deployments.

    Rights-sensitive operations

    Ajayi’s early corrective steps suggest the Service will continue balancing security enforcement with legal compliance, aware that legitimacy strengthens intelligence cooperation at community levels.

    Conclusion

    Under Oluwatosin Adeola Ajayi, the DSS has begun a careful transformation, away from institutional defensiveness toward disciplined intelligence leadership. While the Service remains constrained by secrecy and structural limits, its recent achievements in counter-terrorism coordination, legal compliance and strategic restraint suggest a more mature internal security posture.

    In 2026, the DSS will be judged not by visibility, but by absence, the attacks that do not happen, the crises quietly defused, and the intelligence failures avoided. Whether Ajayi’s reforms endure under mounting pressure will determine the Service’s true contribution to Nigeria’s national security in the year ahead.

    From insurgency to banditry: Nigeria’s Armed Forces stretched across multiple fronts

    Nigeria’s security landscape became increasingly tense towards the end of 2025, as the armed forces found themselves severely overstretched, waging simultaneous battles against a resurgence of terrorism and criminal violence. The military has continued to confront Boko Haram and its splinter groups—the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Jamā’at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da’wah wa’l-Jihād (JAS)—in the North East, alongside persistent banditry and kidnappings in the North West, violent herder attacks across the North Central region, and secessionist agitation in the South East.

    The intensity of the threats spread to North Central states such as Kwara, which had hitherto been largely spared since the escalation of insecurity following the emergence of Boko Haram in the North East in 2009; by the tail end of the year, the deteriorating situation was underscored by the abduction and killing of several people, kidnapping of more than 400 students/pupils, teachers, and other citizens in November alone.

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    At least 230 schoolchildren and 12 teachers were abducted from a Catholic boarding school in Niger State, 24 girls from Government Girls’ Comprehensive Secondary School (GGCSS) in Maga, Kebbi State, 34 worshippers from a church in Kwara State, a bride, bridesmaids and several others in Chacho village, Wurno Local Government Area of Sokoto State.

    In addition, several innocent civilians were killed by terrorists, bandits, and kidnappers across the North-East, North-West, and North-Central regions. The deteriorating situation became so precarious that President Bola Tinubu was compelled to declare a state of emergency on security. By this declaration, the President directed the Police, Department of State Service (DSS), and the Nigerian Army to recruit more personnel to boost their manpower. He also directed the DSS  to immediately deploy all the forest guards already trained “to flush out the terrorists and bandits lurking in our forests”, declaring that “there will be no more hiding places for agents of evil.”

    The President’s directive put the Armed Forces on high alert, prompting a reorganisation of the command structure through the appointment of new operational commanders and the intensification of operations to crush terrorists and kidnappers, while ensuring the release of abducted victims, including all the 230 schoolchildren and 12 teachers were abducted from a Catholic boarding school in Niger State, 24 girls from Government Girls’ Comprehensive Secondary School (GGCSS) in Maga, Kebbi State, and 34 worshippers from a church in Kwara State.

    Economic hope, insecurity fears

    At a time when the Tinubu administration was recording economic stability in early 2025, insecurity was on the rise. According to the Nigeria Development Update (NDU) released by the World Bank in October 2025, Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.9 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2025, up from 3.5 per cent in the same period of 2024. However, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) reported that the humanitarian situation in North-East Nigeria continued to deteriorate in April 2025 due to escalating conflict and rising insecurity.

    Military responses

    Despite the setbacks, the Nigerian military also recorded successes against armed groups across the theaters of operations.

    In October, the Defence Headquarters stated that in September 2025, troops rescued 180 kidnapped civilians, arrested 450 terrorists/bandits and killed scores of terrorists, bandits and other criminal elements. It also said that 39 terrorists surrendered to the troops, while 63 assorted arms, 4,475 ammunition and 294 explosive items such as grenades and IED marking materials were recovered.

    The Nigerian military has also confirmed that several terrorists were killed by Nigerian Air Force fighter aircraft along the Triangle, Triangle in Borno and Yobe states.

    In the South East, the military confirmed the killing of IPOB/ESN commanders, including Ifeanyi Okorienta, also known as Gentle de Yahoo, who had terrorised the region for years.

    And just recently, the United States, with the approval of the Nigerian government, launched  “powerful and deadly” strikes against groups affiliated with ISIL (ISIS), in the North West.

    Towards a more secured 2026

     President Bola Tinubu has promised a more secure country in 2026. This followed his presentation of the 2026 budget to the National Assembly, where he earmarked a massive N5.41 trillion to the defence, and security sector.

    The money would be spent, according to him, to increase the fighting capacity of the armed forces and other security agencies through improved personnel strength and the acquisition of advanced platforms and hardware.

    Short of men, stretched by Crime: Nigeria Police seek reset in 2026

    In 2026, Egbetokun’s leadership of the Nigeria Police Force will continue to face significant challenges related to funding, managing complex security threats, and institutional reforms; simultaneously, key prospects lie in leveraging community policing strategies, modernization efforts, and enhanced regional cooperation.

    The police this year (2026) face significant challenges in national security, including evolving cyber threats, organized crime fueled by drug and arms trafficking, and strained resources and public trust. Equally, crucial prospects lie in leveraging new technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data analytics, enhancing inter-agency and international cooperation, and strengthening community policing initiatives to improve intelligence gathering and public relations.

    The force will contend with a rise in sophisticated, technology-driven crimes, including AI-driven cyberattacks, deepfakes used for disinformation and fraud, and the increasing convergence of illicit drugs and small arms trafficking fueling organized crime and extremism.

    Findings revealed that the police face a “brain drain” of experienced officers through retirement and attrition, and the struggle to recruit new personnel amid a challenging social climate.

    The development limits operational readiness and the ability to respond effectively to new demands of insecurity. This and many more issues has made President Bola Tinubu to order the recruitment of more personnel to tackle the insecurity challenges across the country, especially in the northern part.

    There’s a growing emphasis on creating specialized platforms for real-time, actionable threat intelligence sharing among different security agencies and international partners to combat transnational threats like cybercrime and terrorism.

    The focus on community policing and public engagement strategies is a major prospect for building trust, gathering local intelligence, and fostering a collaborative environment for problem-solving with citizens and partners.

    The crisis in recruitment and retention is forcing a shift toward a more holistic approach focusing on officer wellness, job satisfaction, and a reevaluation of traditional career paths to attract and retain talent. The evolving threat landscape highlights the need for specialized training in areas like cybersecurity, counter-terrorism, and human rights, which presents an opportunity to professionalize the force and improve its legitimacy and effectiveness.

    This year, national security efforts for the police will be defined by a shift toward data-driven policing and managing a persistent workforce crisis. While technological integration offers significant prospects for efficiency, it simultaneously creates new challenges in governance, public trust, and the complexity of modern crime.

    Departments are increasingly adopting unified platforms that break down “data silos,” allowing for seamless information sharing between body-worn cameras, license plate readers, and surveillance systems.

    Findings has also revealed that the use of autonomous units for hazardous tasks, such as bomb disposal or search-and-rescue, is projected to grow, with a global market for law enforcement robots potentially reaching over $4.3 billion by the early 2030s. Virtual and Augmented Reality will become standard for high-stakes training, such as de-escalation techniques and responding to mental health crises, providing a controlled environment for complex scenarios.

    The NPF would also face election pressure, due to the fact that 2026 is preceding the 2027 general elections, the police will be strained by demands to secure polling sites, manage protests, and remain politically neutral in increasingly polarized environments.

    Recall that the Police Service Commission (PSC), in collaboration with the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) have commenced the recruitment process of Fifty Thousand (50,000) Police Constables into the Nigeria Police Force, as directed by President Bola Tinubu.

    The Presidential directive is aimed at strengthening community policing, enhancing internal security and expanding the manpower base of the Nigeria Police Force. The recruitment portal for applications from eligible Nigerians has been opened.

    Egbetokun has also sought for proactive policing and collaboration with other security agencies (e.g., the military) and international partners (e.g., AFRIPOL) as well as joint efforts, such as the “G-7” initiative among states to combat cross-border crime.

    Also, the implementation of a revised training curriculum for recruits, covering topics like human rights, computer studies, and the Police Act 2020, aims to enhance professionalism and align with international best practices.

    The police boss recently mandated all commands to implement action plans aimed at a 50% reduction in crime rates which, if successful, will further reduce the pressure faced by the force.  

    The wild north-west is rising into a broad warzone. Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna and Sokoto are hit hardest by organized bandit gangs. Data gathered show that fatalities in this region exceeded 9,300 in 2023–25. Kidnappings reached 716 incidents. There were 290 incidents in 2024 alone.

    Rival criminal networks now openly terrorize villages: cattle rustling, mass shootings and child abductions are daily reality. In 2025 bandits even struck outside their old haunts – gunmen abducted 303 students in Niger State and 25 girls in Kebbi.

    A new group, Lakurwa, epitomizes the threat: it fuses Islamist extremism with outlaw tactics. These gangs hide in porous forests and demand record ransoms (one Delta family’s kidnappers asked ₦30 billion). The flashpoint is self-sustaining: villagers now pay “levies to NSAGs” (armed groups) just to farm.

    The result is a self-reinforcing insecurity cycle. In 2026, it is expected that these scenarios would be a thing of the past.

  • Banks, government dispel fears as new tax reporting rules take effect

    Banks, government dispel fears as new tax reporting rules take effect

    Banks are playing a central role in supporting the Federal Government’s implementation of the new tax laws, which took effect on January 1, by sensitising customers on the implications for their businesses and personal finances. As key actors in policy execution, lenders have begun explaining changes to the Electronic Money Transfer Levy—now redesignated as Stamp Duty—and outlining new reporting obligations. Under the framework, banks are required to file quarterly reports on accounts that meet turnover thresholds of ₦25 million for individuals and ₦100 million for corporate entities. Analysts say the early adoption of these measures by banks signals growing confidence in the new tax system, reports Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE

    Taxation sits at the heart of economic development. Across the world, most advanced economies owe their fiscal stability and institutional strength to tax systems that are broad-based, predictable, and efficiently administered. Revenue mobilisation, when done well, provides governments with the capacity to invest in infrastructure, social services, and economic growth without excessive borrowing.

    For Nigeria, however, taxation for many years fell short of this ideal. The country’s tax-to-GDP ratio remained among the lowest globally, reflecting weak revenue mobilisation and structural inefficiencies. Businesses grappled with multiple taxes and overlapping authorities, while individuals faced levies that often appeared to tax poverty, capital, and investment rather than productivity. Many tax laws were outdated, ambiguous, and poorly aligned with modern economic realities, creating uncertainty and discouraging compliance.

    It was the need to reverse this trend that informed the Federal Government’s sweeping tax reforms. On June 26, 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed into law four interconnected Tax Reform Acts, which became effective from January 1, 2026. Collectively, the reforms represent one of the most ambitious overhauls of Nigeria’s tax architecture in decades. At the centre of the reforms is the Nigeria Tax Act (NTA), a unified statute that consolidates over a dozen legacy federal tax laws, including the Companies Income Tax Act, Personal Income Tax Act, and Value Added Tax Act. By harmonising previously fragmented frameworks, the NTA seeks to simplify compliance, reduce duplication, and improve transparency for taxpayers and administrators.

    The financial sector has begun adjusting to the new regime. In separate notices to customers, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Wema Bank, Polaris Bank, and others confirmed the commencement of the NTA and outlined key changes affecting everyday transactions. In a joint-style advisory, UBA, GTBank and Wema Bank informed customers: “Please be informed that the New Tax Act (NTA) 2025 will take effect on January 1, 2026. Under this Act, the N50 Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) on money transfers will now be referred to as Stamp Duty across all financial institutions.”

    The banks explained that Stamp Duty now applies to transactions of N10,000 and above or their equivalent in other currencies, while salary payments and intra-bank self-transfers are exempt. Crucially, “the sender now bears the Stamp Duty charge. Previously, this charge was deducted from the beneficiary or receiver,” the notice stated. Beyond transaction levies, the reforms introduce significant changes to personal income taxation. Zenith Bank described the new regime as a shift toward a more progressive and transparent system that directly affects workers’ take-home pay. “Nigeria has entered a new phase of tax administration following the Federal Government’s approval of a revised personal income tax structure, effective January 2026,” Zenith Bank said. “The reform is part of a broader effort by the Tinubu administration to strengthen fiscal capacity, improve revenue mobilisation and reduce over-reliance on volatile oil proceeds.”

    One of the most notable provisions is the exemption of low-income earners. Zenith Bank told customers that individuals earning N800,000 or less annually are now fully exempt from personal income tax. It also highlighted the introduction of rent relief, noting that “20 percent of annual rent paid, subject to a maximum of N500,000, has replaced the Consolidated Relief Allowance.”

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    On global income taxation, the bank clarified that under the NTA, income earned by Nigerian residents is taxable in Nigeria regardless of where it arises. “Income, gains or profits of a Nigerian resident are considered to accrue in Nigeria and are taxed as such, whether or not the income has been brought into or received in the country,” it said, adding that non-residents remain taxable only on Nigerian-sourced income. The Act also provides relief against double taxation. “The NTA allows relief for income already taxed outside Nigeria but chargeable locally,” Zenith Bank noted.

    Perhaps the most far-reaching change is the restructuring of income tax bands. “The new regime restructures personal income tax bands to reflect current earnings realities and broaden the taxable base,” the bank said. While income up to N800,000 remains exempt, earnings between N800,000 and N3 million are taxed at 15 percent, and income between N3 million and N12 million at 18 percent. “Earnings above N12 million move into higher progressive tiers,” Zenith Bank explained. “This approach is common in advanced and emerging economies and is aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s fiscal space while preserving fairness.”

    Benefits to the economy

    Zenith Bank explained that beyond individual pay slips, the reform supports the Federal Government’s wider objective of enhancing non-oil revenue. Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains significantly below that of peer economies, limiting the ability of government to fund infrastructure, social services, and investment in productive sectors. “A more efficient and progressive personal income tax framework broadens the revenue pool and strengthens fiscal resilience. For the banking industry, a more predictable tax system contributes to macroeconomic stability. Improved public revenues can support fiscal consolidation efforts, shape investor confidence, and sustain better credit conditions. Institutional planning also benefits from clarity in payroll-associated costs, enabling HR and finance teams to forecast compensation budgets more accurately,” it said.

    Understanding the bank report fillings

    Commercial banks have been directed to file reports on bank accounts with N25 million quarterly turnover and above to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) or other related agencies for effective tax monitoring. Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, broke the news yesterday during a media workshop on the new consolidated tax law held in Lagos. He said the directive aligns with the federal government’s new tax administration framework starting January 1, 2026.

    Addressing the misconception that banks will begin reporting all transactions, Oyedele said the 2020 Finance Act already required accounts used for business to have a Tax Identification Number (TIN). He added that the new reform even raises the threshold for mandatory reporting from N10 million to N25 million, which he said translates to “almost N100 million a year before any report is triggered.”

    Oyedele said only accounts that meet the turnover threshold will be indentified and monitored for proper tax payment. He further stated that that banks will be required to request a Tax Identification Number (TIN) from all taxable Nigerians in line with the new tax regime.

    According to him, Section 4 of the Nigerian Tax Administration Act, makes the possession of a tax ID mandatory for all taxable individuals. He clarified that the requirement does not apply to students or dependents, who will be exempted from needing a tax ID to maintain a bank account. He however, said there was no need for anxiety over possibility of banks directly debiting customers’ accounts over tax matters. Oyedele said: “Nobody will debit your bank accounts in banks. Banks will not debit customers’ accounts for tax default”.

    He dismissed allegations that government plans to deduct money directly from bank accounts of taxpayers, insisting that such claims are “false, dangerous and capable of destabilising the economy.” He said the speculations on social media were based on ignorance and deliberate misinformation. “Let me say this clearly: nobody — not FIRS, not Central Bank of Nigeria, not any government agency — has the power to debit your bank account,” he declared. “Whether you have N50,000 or N50 million, nobody is taking any money from your account. It is simply not true.”

    Oyedele explained that the allegation arose from the consolidation of major tax statutes into a single code, which led many to assume that the government had introduced new enforcement powers. He clarified that the only existing mechanism that allows recovery of unpaid taxes is a court-ordered garnishee, which he described as “a long legal process that is almost never used.”

    Views from stakeholders

    President, Bank Customers Association of Nigeria (BCAN), Dr. Uju Ogubunka, said taxation should be based on income. He said that as a finance expert and consultant, transactions that are not based on income should not be taxed. He expects government to properly educate the people on what should be taxed, to avoid fears and panic that would lead many businesses to operate underground and report nothing. “I think that across the world, what is usually taxed is income and not turnover. If you push businesses into believing that a lot of their resources will be taxed, they are likely to operate underground, and ensure that not much of their funds pass through the banks.

    He said that tax authorities should educate retirees on what the tax policy entails, whether retirement funds should be taxed, unless there are proceeds from established businesses. Ogubunka said the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has spent years pushing for financial inclusion, and a badly implemented tax policy could hurt such achievements. He said: “The tax authorities should look out for justifiable income and tax it. They cannot tax anything that is not earned, or capital for businesses. Once these lines are not crossed, I see business compliance rising and economy better for it.” He said a badly implemented tax policy could reduce businesses transaction in banks, and that will not impact positively on the economy.

    President/Chairman of Council, the Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria (CITN), Innocent Ohagwa, said CITN’s concern as the pre- eminent tax institution in Nigeria  is in ensuring that due legislative process is observed and not breached,  especially in respect of an important subject matter as taxation, which thrives on exactitude of tax legislation. He said that integrity of the tax process will command respect, and enhance compliance, adding that no efforts should be spared in getting it right from the onset to avoid overwhelming challenges in the future.

    He said that tax authorities should strive to ensure that any observed discrepancies, whether arising from procedural lapses, administrative errors, or unauthorized alterations in the tax policy is corrected. Ohagwa insisted that the integrity of the legislative process is fundamental to the rule of law, good governance, and public confidence in democratic institutions. “Tax legislation, in particular, requires the highest level of accuracy, transparency, and procedural fidelity due to its far-reaching implications for government revenue, businesses, professionals, and citizens,” he said.

  • Ghost mansions, hidden loot: Nigeria’s real estate of stolen wealth

    Ghost mansions, hidden loot: Nigeria’s real estate of stolen wealth

    Every year, Nigeria—and Africa at large—loses tens of billions of dollars to illicit financial flows, money that could fund schools, hospitals, and power infrastructure. Instead, much of it—up to 80 per cent—finds its way into a single, largely unregulated sector: real estate. In elite districts like Maitama, Asokoro and Guzape, ghost high-rises and opulent estates stand as monuments to misappropriated public funds, driving up property prices and deepening inequality. In this special report, OKWY IROEGBU-CHIKEZIE examines how corruption and weak oversight have turned Nigeria’s real estate sector into a vault for illicit wealth, while efforts to reclaim and redirect these assets for national development struggle to keep pace

    Throughout much of Nigeria and across the African continent, real estate has become synonymous with the 21st century’s version of a Swiss bank account—a tangible, highly valued asset class often used to launder funds derived from corruption and other illicit activities. In high-brow areas such as Maitama, Asokoro, and Guzape, so-called “ghost high-rises” stand out due to their sheer size and striking architecture, many complete with manicured lawns and 24/7 security. Yet, these buildings remain virtually empty, with at least 80 per cent of windows unlit throughout the day. While the average worker faces rent hikes of up to 50 per cent, these properties serve less as residential housing and more as physical “savings accounts” for Nigeria’s elite, a way for political leaders to convert stolen wealth into cement and steel, shielding it from the volatility of the naira.

    A notable example involves former Minister of Petroleum Resources, Diezani Alison-Madueke. In January 2025, the United States and Nigeria confirmed the repatriation of $52.88 million following a civil asset forfeiture case. Under the agreement, $50 million of the repatriated funds would be channeled through the World Bank to partly fund the Rural Electrification Project, improving the reliability and availability of renewable energy in Nigeria. The remaining $2.88 million would be granted to the International Institute for Justice (IIJ) to support its Rule of Law and Counter-Terrorism Project, which provides capacity building for criminal justice practitioners across East, West, and North Africa.

    Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Lateef Fagbemi (SAN), emphasised that mechanisms had been put in place to ensure transparency and accountability, with periodic reporting to both Nigeria and the United States. The funds repatriated included the liquidated value of a $50 million luxury condo in New York and the $80 million yacht Galactica Star. Domestically, the EFCC secured the forfeiture of a $37.5 million fifteen-story building in Banana Island, Lagos, Bella Vista, comprising 18 flats and six penthouses. Investigators discovered the property was acquired through the shell company Rusimpex Limited, effectively parking tens of millions of dollars in a single real estate transaction while millions of Nigerians struggled to secure housing.

    The case of former Delta State Governor James Ibori illustrates the international dimension of real estate money laundering. Ibori pled guilty in the UK to money laundering and fraud, maintaining a real estate portfolio that included six luxury properties in London, as well as holdings in Washington, D.C., Houston, Texas, and Johannesburg, South Africa. Despite earning around $25,000 as governor, he was pursuing a $20 million private jet at the time of his arrest in the UAE. In October 2023, a UK court ordered Ibori to repay over £100 million within 18 months or face an additional eight-year prison term. This case highlights how money initially intended for regional development in Nigeria was diverted into high-value, non-productive assets abroad.

    In 2024, the EFCC secured one of Nigeria’s largest asset recoveries in Abuja—a 753-unit duplex/apartment complex acquired with corrupt proceeds by a former senior government official. Located in Abuja’s most prestigious neighborhoods, these properties, like many others seized, were rarely occupied, and never served public housing needs. Alongside this, the EFCC and ICPC recovered more than N277 billion and $105 million in 2024, much of it in tangible real estate assets. Similarly, former Chief of Air Staff Alex Badeh forfeited $1 million alongside multiple properties in prime Abuja locations.

    Even when recovered, these assets often remain underutilised, perpetuating a “warehousing” effect that continues to hinder economic progress. For example, former Inspector General of Police Tafa Balogun was ordered to forfeit N13 billion in assets, including several plazas and residential buildings in commercial districts of Abuja. Subsequent investigations revealed that some of these properties, such as Yashua and Shakir Plazas, were sold at prices far below market value through opaque auctions to unregistered companies. This underscores a troubling secondary issue: without a transparent disposal process, recovered real estate can be reabsorbed by elites rather than being repurposed to address the housing needs of the less privileged.

    These cases collectively demonstrate how real estate in Nigeria has become both a repository for illicit wealth and a barrier to social equity. While high-end properties in areas like Maitama, Asokoro, Guzape, and Banana Island symbolise status and financial security for the elite, they starkly contrast with the housing scarcity and rising rents experienced by ordinary Nigerians. The misuse of real estate as a tool for laundering corrupt wealth, coupled with inadequate transparency in asset recovery and disposal, continues to exacerbate inequality and limits the broader economic benefits that these assets could provide.

    The ongoing efforts by the EFCC, ICPC, and international partners to repatriate and redistribute corruptly acquired funds signal progress, but the challenge remains significant. The physical and financial concentration of wealth in unproductive real estate continues to impact both housing affordability and national economic development. Comprehensive reforms, including transparent asset disposal mechanisms and reinvestment strategies targeting public benefit, are critical to ensuring that recovered wealth translates into tangible improvements in the lives of Nigerians.

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    ICPC has repeatedly warned that high-end property development in Nigeria often functions as a front for illicit financial flows. In public testimonies, the commission has highlighted how corrupt public officials acquire sprawling estates under false names to conceal the illegal origins of their wealth. This practice is facilitated by weak property title documentation, lack of enforcement of beneficial ownership standards, and gaps in regulatory oversight. The ICPC has even launched investigations into the proliferation of “unoccupied estates” in cities like Abuja, Lagos, and Port Harcourt. These properties, largely empty, are rarely intended to house residents; instead, they serve as secure repositories for stolen wealth.

    The scale of the problem is stark. In one enforcement action, the commission recovered 241 houses from a single public official. Another investigation involved 60 buildings situated on a single large plot of land. In a separate case, the ICPC secured the forfeiture of N2.4 billion and several properties linked to former PPMC chief Haruna Momoh. Investigations revealed that Momoh’s wife operated accounts holding millions in both local and foreign currencies, which were then used to acquire luxury duplexes in Abuja’s upscale Olympia Estate. These cases reflect a broader pattern: the use of real estate as a vehicle to convert illicit cash into durable, high-value physical assets.

    This phenomenon is not confined to Nigeria. Organised crime groups across Europe have employed similar strategies, purchasing luxury villas in locations such as Spain’s Costa del Sol. By paying part of the property price in cash derived from illicit sources, these actors convert liquid illicit funds into tangible assets that appreciate over time while avoiding the digital trail inherent in conventional banking systems.

    Within Nigeria, the construction sector often acts as the “layering” phase of money laundering. Corrupt officials frequently control construction firms that secure government contracts, inflating bills for labor and materials. The excess funds are then redirected into lavish private estates, functioning as slush funds. For instance, the ICPC recently confiscated 12 properties from construction firm director Ochuko Momoh, including luxurious mansions in Maitama and unfinished estates in Katampe. The commission noted that the assets were grossly disproportionate to her reported earnings, suggesting that the construction company served primarily as a vehicle for laundering public funds.

    The United Kingdom has witnessed similar practices. Former Delta State Governor Ibori employed a complex network of shell companies and professional facilitators in London to manage a construction and property portfolio funded by embezzled state funds. Money pilfered from the Delta State treasury was funneled through multiple accounts, making it appear as legitimate business income. This method relies on a sophisticated system involving anonymous shell companies, off-the-record cash transactions, and the strategic use of construction projects to artificially inflate costs. Even as transparency laws are being strengthened in Nigeria, the battle between regulators and politically connected elites remains fierce. Cash remains the preferred vehicle for the initial stages of laundering, often channeled into real estate through Bureau De Change operators or other intermediaries.

    The effects of this practice on the broader housing market are significant. When a corrupt official acquires multiple luxury units through a shell company, they are willing to overpay to move large sums of cash quickly. This inflates land prices and construction costs throughout the city. Developers, noticing the lucrative returns from high-end projects, often shift focus away from affordable housing and toward properties designed to store illicit capital. These empty buildings—sometimes called “warehouses for cash”—are rarely intended for tenants. Keeping them vacant allows owners to avoid the obligations and scrutiny that come with rental management. Even with the government’s planned rollout of the “Persons with Significant Control” (PSC) register in late 2025, wealthy individuals continue to use proxies or “straw men” to hide multi-billion-naira assets.

    The laundering of African slush funds extends far beyond Nigeria. Investigative reports, including Transparency International and the Center for Advanced Defence Studies (C4ADS), have traced billions meant for public infrastructure and healthcare into luxury real estate markets across the globe. Dubai, London, and South Africa have emerged as key destinations for this wealth. C4ADS’s report “Sandcastles” revealed that at least 800 properties in Dubai are directly linked to Nigerian politically exposed persons (PEPs), their families, or proxies. Dubai’s luxury real estate market, with its tolerance for cash transactions and high levels of ownership anonymity, has effectively become a “physical bank” for Africa’s elite. While local populations face acute housing shortages, these officials acquire properties they seldom occupy, using them to safeguard illicit wealth against scrutiny and currency fluctuations.

    London has long been a repository for African slush funds. According to the “Pandora Papers,” at least 230 UK properties, collectively valued at £350 million, were purchased secretly through corporate entities registered in the British Virgin Islands and Seychelles. Similarly, the United States has seized luxury properties purchased with illicit African funds. Former Nigerian governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, for example, used stolen oil revenues to acquire a home in Rockville, Maryland, alongside multiple properties in London. More recently, the US Department of Justice sold luxury New York condos linked to former Petroleum Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke for $50 million. These seizures demonstrate that even the most carefully constructed “cash warehouses” can be dismantled through coordinated international action, although for every seized property, hundreds remain hidden behind complex webs of shell companies.

    Analysts have identified a clear pattern in real estate money laundering: placement, layering, and integration. Placement begins with the injection of cash or Bureau De Change funds into land purchases or large construction projects. Layering involves transferring property titles through shell companies and proxies to obscure the true source of funds. Integration occurs when the property is sold years later, or when rental income—now “clean”—enters the economy. This cycle distorts housing markets, as overpaid land drives up costs and reduces availability for genuine low- and middle-income buyers. In effect, properties are constructed not for habitation but as instruments to store wealth, exacerbating Nigeria’s housing crisis.

    The consequences of this systemic practice are profound. While the political elite amass luxury assets both locally and abroad, ordinary Nigerians face skyrocketing rents and limited housing options. Corrupt real estate practices divert resources from public infrastructure, education, and healthcare into private wealth accumulation. Even recovered assets, such as confiscated apartments and luxury estates, often remain underutilized or are sold through opaque processes, sometimes returning to elite hands instead of being redeployed for social benefit. This “warehousing” of wealth underscores the urgent need for enhanced enforcement, robust transparency laws, and global collaboration to ensure that ill-gotten real estate is not merely recycled among the wealthy but contributes to equitable national development.

    Industry responses to corruption and money laundering in real estate

    Recent recoveries by the EFCC have amplified concerns about the use of luxury real estate as a vehicle for illicit wealth. Over the years, high-end properties have been linked to politically exposed individuals and senior civil servants, many of whom allegedly use real estate to shield ill-gotten gains. In response, estate management professionals are calling for stronger institutional frameworks and regulatory oversight to prevent abuse in the sector.

    Addressing the issue, Otunba Sola Enitan, Estate Surveyor and Valuer, and Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Society for Professional Valuation (SPV), emphasised that corruption and money laundering pose significant threats to economic growth. “For any country to thrive economically, we must tackle corruption and money laundering head-on,” Enitan stated. “The impact of laundering proceeds through real estate, without proper oversight, is staggering.” He underscored the need for enhanced management standards, aligned with international best practices, alongside stronger legislative protections governing financial transactions.

    Enitan advocated that public officials be required to declare assets both before assuming office and after leaving, with independent verification by the ICPC. “Public officials must declare their assets at the start and end of their terms, and these declarations should be publicly accessible,” he said. He further called for thorough pre- and post-construction development appraisals to prevent over-invoicing and under-invoicing, practices commonly used to launder money. Procurement officers in both the public and private sectors, he noted, should be held accountable through professional certification and adherence to strict ethical standards.

    The SPV chairman also recommended the establishment of a national online land registry, collaboratively managed by the EFCC and the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), as a tool to increase transparency and accountability in the real estate sector. On the matter of asset declaration, he urged the Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB) to be more proactive in ensuring compliance by politically exposed persons and civil servants, emphasizing that only qualified Estate Surveyors and Valuers are professionally and legally equipped to handle asset declaration and valuation.

    Regarding vacant luxury properties, Enitan suggested heavy taxation of unoccupied units. “Because the funds used to procure many of these properties are proceeds of crime, owners often let them lie idle,” he said. “Government should impose substantial taxes on such properties to raise revenue and discourage misuse of wealth.” He warned that unchecked corruption could destabilise the financial sector, create market distortions, and discourage genuine investment in real estate.

    Isaac Fabuiyi, another Estate Surveyor and Valuer, highlighted the legal obligations of practitioners under anti-money laundering regulations. Professionals are required to register with the Special Control Unit against Money Laundering (SCUML) for transactions exceeding legally approved thresholds. “The EFCC law mandates reporting of any transaction above a certain limit,” Fabuiyi explained, adding that non-disclosure by clients remains a major challenge. “While it’s not our direct responsibility to report clients, we must take precautions to prevent illicit funds from entering the system through our services.”

    Government officials have also acknowledged the urgent need for reform. Barakat Odunuga-Bakare, Special Adviser to the Lagos State Governor on Housing, stressed the pivotal role of government in modernising real estate laws and regulations. Speaking at the inaugural conference of Female Lawyers in Real Estate Practice (FELIREP), themed “The Missing Gap: Absence of Revised Laws, Rules, Regulations, Policies, and Effective Monitoring on Emerging Trends in the Nigerian Real Estate Market,” she warned that outdated legislation could undermine transparency and sustainability.

    “Lagos is a rapidly growing commercial hub, and the real estate market remains a vibrant force in the national economy, attracting investors seeking diversification and steady returns,” Odunuga-Bakare noted. “To ensure continued growth, it is imperative to actively review and update real estate laws, rules, regulations, and policies, while establishing effective monitoring mechanisms.” She highlighted the role of the Lagos State Real Estate Regulatory Authority (LASRERA) in registering practitioners and enforcing compliance, noting that technological innovations such as the E-GIS digital system and the state’s land administration portal have strengthened accountability.

    The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) commemorates International Anti-Corruption Day every December 9, encouraging global leaders to participate in combating corruption. The EFCC similarly marks the day as part of ongoing efforts to raise awareness, emphasising that public cooperation is essential to support investigations and enforcement. During a panel session on industry roles in regulating the market and addressing legal barriers in real estate development, Edward Akinlade, Group Managing Director of SURU Homes, drew comparisons between approval processes in Nigeria and the United Kingdom. He noted that project approvals in Nigeria are often slower and less efficient, creating opportunities for corruption. Akinlade advised industry participants to rely on professional services to reduce malpractice and enhance accountability.

    Panelists agreed on the urgent need for legislative reforms to foster sustainable development, enhance market credibility, and align Nigeria’s real estate sector with global best practices. Collectively, these measures—from stricter asset declarations and pre-construction appraisals to technological innovations and robust anti-money laundering compliance—are seen as essential to protecting the integrity of the sector, ensuring fair market operations, and preventing the real estate market from becoming a haven for illicit wealth.

    Security votes turned Governors’ slush funds

    The EFCC Chairman, Ola Olukoyede, has raised serious allegations against certain state governors, claiming they are siphoning billions of naira from monthly security votes. Speaking at the annual lecture organised by the Honorary Members’ Forum of the Nigerian Air Force Officers’ Mess at Sam Ethnan Air Force Base in Ikeja, Lagos, Olukoyede stressed that corruption is the “real elephant in the room” fuelling Nigeria’s rising insecurity.

    He revealed that stolen funds intended for security and poverty alleviation are often diverted into foreign currency accounts or fake investments, rather than being used to strengthen security infrastructure. Referencing the ongoing case against Willie Obiano, former governor of Anambra State, Olukoyede disclosed that the EFCC discovered over N4 billion in misappropriated security votes. “State governors collect billions each month as security votes without accountability,” he said. “Instead of investing in security systems, these resources are often converted into foreign currency and sent abroad. Had these funds been used properly, the security situation in Anambra and neighbouring states would be far better.”

    Olukoyede also criticised issues with military procurement, highlighting the notorious $2.1 billion arms scandal, and noted how flawed economic models perpetuate poverty, particularly in northern Nigeria. He cited other cases, including a former accountant-general accused of stealing over N109 billion and stalled power projects plagued by bribery allegations. On the EFCC’s achievements, he noted that the agency recovered N566.3 billion between 2024 and 2025, including a record seizure of 753 properties, contributing to economic stability by curbing illicit financial flows.

    Experts warn that the influx of such “slush funds” into property development is also driving up housing costs. Dr. Bennett Muhammad Doro, member of the governing council of the Institute of Mortgage Brokers and Lenders of Nigeria (IMBLN), told Channels TV that money laundering through real estate makes it nearly impossible for the average worker to access affordable housing. “Competition fuelled by illicit funds inflates property prices,” he said. Doro highlighted ongoing IMBLN efforts to professionalize and clean up the sector, collaborating with the EFCC and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) to prevent property being used to hide stolen public funds or finance terrorism. “Cleaning up the industry is not just a legal obligation but a human rights issue,” he stressed.

    Transparency measures are proving critical. Arctic Intelligence, in its report “The Role of Beneficial Ownership Registers in Combating Financial Crime,” noted that registries and digital land titles help expose the real individuals behind companies and assets, curbing anonymous transactions. Examples from the United Kingdom, where the People with Significant Control (PSC) register revealed misuse of Scottish Limited Partnerships, and the United States, under the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA), demonstrate how disclosure requirements deter money laundering. Digitised land records, according to a World Bank study covering 37 economies, can reduce property transfer times by nearly 40 per cent while linking ownership to real individuals, enabling authorities to trace illicit funds hidden in complex structures. As calls for accountability grow, experts insist that stricter enforcement of anti-money laundering laws, transparent property registries, and professional oversight are essential to ensure public funds reach their intended purpose and prevent the exploitation of Nigeria’s real estate market by corrupt actors.