Category: Special Report

Smarting from the bitter pills served in the outgoing year in different facets of life, many Nigerians desire a big break and look forward to a very prosperous year in 2020. But virtually all the indices from governance, fiscal, monetary policies, to mention just a few show things do not bode well for the economy. Ibrahim Apekhade Yusuf and Charles Okonji examine the issues

For Azubuike Okoro, a middle age man who lost his job at one of the new generation banks years ago and now works shifts at a printing press in uptown district in Somolu, Lagos, year 2019 was to say, the least, a mixed bag of sorrows and misfortunes. He began the year on a sore note, as he lost his lifesavings which he had been keeping to offset his kids’ fees to some phony business schemes. While he was still trying to wriggle out of that ugly situation, he lost his aged mother who was depending on him for sustenance just as his landlord gave him eviction notice as he owed arrears in rents. He searched everywhere for succour to no end.

However, gazing listlessly into space as he shared his tale of woes with our correspondent on a sunny Thursday afternoon, he was nonetheless optimistic that the year 2020 was going to be a bright year for him indeed.

Okoro’s case typifies the growing optimism being expressed by many Nigerians, who despite obvious challenges of the past 12 months are hopeful of better things to come.

While majority of Nigerians are overly optimistic about the prosperity of the coming year, a few discerning Nigerians and external bodies rather than shout Eureka, want the populace to manage their expectations very well as a lot of things may not necessarily add up. Talk of forlorn hope.

2020 outlook from Rating Agencies

Scores of ratings from different groups, chief among which is Fitch Ratings for 2020 has revised the country’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Negative from Stable, and affirmed the rating at ‘B+.’

Specifically, Fitch Ratings states that a combination of slowing economic growth, sustained low interest rates and unprecedented levels of indebtedness will broadly influence the global credit outlook in 2020.

Based on key ratings drivers, the Economic Outlook revision for 2020 reflects the increasing vulnerability from the current macro policy setting, raising risks of disruptive macroeconomic adjustment in the medium term amid continued real appreciation of the naira.

A sharp devaluation of the exchange rate under the current policy framework would stoke macroeconomic volatility and significantly weaken some of Nigeria’s key credit metrics, including its GDP per capita in US dollars and its share in world GDP.

The substantial real appreciation of the naira over the last year appears uncorrelated with macroeconomic fundamentals and is set to continue, driven by high inflation. Commodity terms of trade have deteriorated somewhat and will decline further, weighed down by lower oil prices. However, Nigeria’s real effective exchange rate has surged by around 20% since April 2018 and is now close to its high reached in mid-2016, prior to the exchange-rate devaluation in the wake of the oil-price shock.

Fitch expects the current account (CA) balance has shifted to deficit from a long-standing surplus, pointing to deteriorating macroeconomic imbalances and adding to external vulnerability.CA will record a deficit of 1.6% of GDP in 2019, its second-weakest level in 24 years, after a surplus of 2.6% in 2018; Fitch forecasts the CA deficit will moderate to an average of 0.7% of GDP in 2020-2021.

FX reserves will average 4.7 months of CA payments over 2019-2021, down from 6.1 months in 2018. This will still be much higher than the forecast ‘B’ median of 3.5 months, but reliance on short-term financial inflows – particularly into OMOs – for building reserves and a significant portion of reserves pledged in swaps mean that Nigeria’s liquid foreign assets offer only a modest liquidity buffer against external shocks.

Fitch projects an average GDP growth of 2.4% in 2019-2021, well below the ‘B’ median of 3.4% and the five-year average demographic growth rate of 2.7%. The prospects for supply-side, fiscal and exchange-regime reforms that could tackle the major constraints for Nigeria’s credit profile are weak, as reflected by the record in recent years. Emerging rivalries within the ruling APC party, possibly sparked by early dissensions over the 2023 succession to President Muhammadu Buhari, could hamper policy-making.

Like Fitch Ratings, Vetiva Research shows a delicate sprout. Citing outcome of 2019 sub optimal performance, Vetiva’s outlook report highlights how several challenges facing the real sector (ranging from inadequacies in power supply, budget implementation and transport infrastructure) have capped Nigeria’s economic growth.

The group however expressed hope that it is looking forward to a better capex performance in 2020, underpinned by the government’s drive to revert the budget plan to a normal (January-December) cycle, coupled with less political distractions. While we believe a normal budget cycle would facilitate a better capex spend in 2020, we posit that a suboptimal revenue performance could dilute this benefit.

Nigeria can expect modest growth in 2020 at 2.4% year-on-year just as envisaged by IMF at 2.5% year-on-year, driven by sturdier growth in agriculture.

“On the flipside, we believe oil sector growth would slow to 3.0% y/y in 2020 from 4.5% y/y in 2019, given our underwhelming outlook for oil investments. Overall, while we expect Nigeria’s economy to strengthen in 2020, we opine that this growth is rather a delicate sprout, as shocks, such as lower-than-expected crude prices and disruptive policies, could dwindle our growth projections,” Vetiva Research stated.

Veracity of Fitch Ratings

Nigeria does not publish consolidated fiscal data on a general government basis, which complicates the assessment of fiscal performance. But Fitch produces its own estimates for general government fiscal metrics based on disaggregated data on federal, state and local government revenue, spending and debt published by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), the CBN, the Debt Management Office (DMO), the Budget Office of the Federation (BOF), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Office of the Auditor General for the Federation (OAGF).

LCCI 2020 outlook

While attempting a prognosis of the year 2020 outlook, Dr Muda Yusuf, Director General, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a statement obtained by our correspondent expressed blessed assurances of a brighter year but urged caution all the same.

In his assessment of the broader economy, Yusuf said, economic growth may remain subdued at around 2% by 2020 as consumer demand, as well as private sector investment, will most likely remain weak, a development, which resonates with the position of World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that growth will prime at 2.1% and 2.5% respectively, which is below the population growth rate of some 3%, implying per capita income will contract further, making more Nigerians poorer.

“Amidst continued global slow growth and trade wars, we expect growth to be slow albeit stable in 2020 in the face of implementation of recent policy measures by the government. We note that the Nigerian economy remains susceptible to external shocks most especially oil price fluctuations. Thus, we reiterate that government as a matter of urgency must intensify efforts in diversifying the productive base to other high-impact and growth-driving non-oil sectors like agriculture, manufacturing and services.”

Way forward

For Nigeria to achieve strong growth of about 6-8% that is needed to effectively tackle poverty and unemployment, the LCCI boss urged economic managers and policymakers to embrace structural reforms such as deregulating the oil & gas sector; harmonising the multiple exchange windows, privatising redundant state assets, fixing infrastructural problems of poor power supply and bad roads.

These reforms, he maintained, will in no doubt deepen investor confidence and make the country a better destination for private investment.

According to the economist, headline inflation is expected to trend higher in 2020 driven by myriads of factors such as implementation of new minimum wage which will stimulate aggregate demand; continued closure of the land border; higher VAT rate of 7.5%; early disbursement of funds for budget implementation following the return of the budget cycle between January – December cycle and negative real return in fixed income market which disincentivizes investment.

The CBN is expected to maintain status quo by continuing to inject liquidity in the currency market to protect the local currency at current levels against the US dollar. However, its ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market could be limited if external reserves sustains its downward trend which could be triggered by lower oil prices and weak investor confidence.

The country’s debt profile is expected to trend upwards by 2020 on approval of $3 billion credit facility from World Bank for power sector reforms and based on possible ratification of $29.96 billion loan request for infrastructural development fueled by wider fiscal deficit of N2.7trn to increased appetite for government securities by institutional investors following their exclusion from OMO.

However, the rising indebtedness of the economy calls for concern as increased debt stock failed to stimulate neither growth nor infrastructural development. Given Nigeria’s revenue challenges, the country will continue to spend a large chunk of its earnings to service debt.

Quick wins

According to analysts, from policy perspective, the prolonged closure of the land borders will further add impetus to agricultural output in 2020. They were however, quick to add that risk factors to their prognosis include security challenges in the North-east zone, a major food producing region in the country just as resurgence in herders-farmers clash in the North-central region. Overall, they expect the sector to sustain its upward growth trajectory in 2020.

In the area of manufacturing, the LCCI holds the views and very strongly too that the sector will continue to benefit big from CBN’s aggressive credit push to the real sector. “In furtherance, we see scope that competition between foreign and local producers will fade on prolonged closure of land borders. Also, early budget implementation for capital projects is positive for the sector.  We are of the view that failure by government to fix structural constraints with regards to fixing power challenges and rehabilitating deplorable road networks, will perpetuate the poor productivity and performance of the sector.”

Besides, they note that performance of trade sector in 2020 will be shaped by the direction of government policies. In our opinion, continued protectionist measures of government will most likely limit growth in 2020.

“Elsewhere, the level of the country’s engagement in Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) scheduled to kick-off July 1, 2020, will also impact the performance of trade sector.”

Overall, the LCCI states that the potentials for growth of the Nigerian economy is immense but adds that in order to unlock these huge potentials, appropriate policies, regulations and institutions need to be put in place.

“Investment is critical to the growth of any economy.  This is even more so in an economy that is struggling with revenue and other resources.  Growth in private investment will boost employment, impact on revenue, promote social stability and enhance the welfare of citizens.  Even more important is the promotion of economic inclusion through a right mix of fiscal, monetary and investment policies. Thus it is very fundamental that we create an enabling environment for investors [domestic and foreign] to create wealth and jobs for the country.  There is also a need to deepen the consultative process between the policy makers and the private sector.”

Nothing to cheer in 2020

Like others who have offered salient views on the state of the economy in the coming year, Bismarck Rewane, Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, is also less enthusiastic about the polity.

Speaking at a public forum organised by the Capital Market Solicitors Association, where he ventilated his views on the Nigerian Economic Prospects in 2020, he cited low credit to the private sector, low investments as well as huge infrastructure deficit of over $300billion as factors that may further weaken the already troubled economy.

Pressed further, Rewane expressed fears that litigation is likely to increase because of the various policies, just as the government would continue to deal; with the issue of trust.

NACCIMA’s 2020 outlook

In the view of President of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Saratu Iya Aliyu a lot would give in 2020, albeit positively judging by the swift passage of the 2020 Budget in line with the promises of the ninth Assembly to revert the budget cycle to a January to December period.

She was however quick to add that some of our concerns raised during the presentation of the budget proposal in October 2019, noted that the budget deficit continues to rise from N1.9 trillion in 2019 to N2.8 trillion proposed in 2020 just as foreign debt is estimated to increase by 64 per cent based on the 2019 budget, and 180 per cent based on the 2018 budget while capital expenditure is two per cent higher than the 2019 budget 34 per cent lower than the 2018 budget. Recurrent expenditure continues to rise, possibly due to the implementation of the proposed minimum wage.”

“NACCIMA notes that the government has adopted an oil price benchmark of $57 per barrel, a daily oil production estimate of 2.18 mbpd and an exchange rate of N305 per US Dollar for 2020. However, this statement appears at odds with Nigeria’s current crude oil output of 1.69 million barrels per day and according to the Minister of State for Petroleum which assures the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) of Nigeria’s commitment to compliance with OPEC’s new production quota of 1.774million barrels per day. This raises some concern on the revenue projections expected to fund the budget.”

Speaking in the same vein, Frank Onyebu, Chairman, Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Apapa branch, in his projection, laments that he does not see any better horizon about 2020 economic outlook with the current situation in the country.  “There is nothing that the government is doing that is giving me that silver lining. I have not seen it,” Onyebu argued matter-of-factly.

However, making a volte-face, he said the only good thing is that the budget has been passed on time. “I just hope that the government would realise the kind of problems the country would be plunged into if they don’t take positive actions to rescue manufacturing from total collapse. Now the country has signed AfCFTA and this means that we are going to be opening up our economy, knowing that power situation has not improved, and infrastructure has not been put in place.”

Manufacturers, he maintained, have been complaining about the issue of multiple taxation to no avail but regrets that the government does not seem to understand the need of harmonising tax, and instead VAT is increased. “All these things are the problems we are facing that if not tackled, 2020 would be a difficult one for the manufacturers.”

Emefiele’s priorities for 2020

Expectedly, while a lot of bookmakers are hard pressed to believe that a lot would happen for the better in the coming year, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor, Godwin Emefiele, one man who controls the levers of the economy believes otherwise.

While listing the Bank’s priorities for 2020, he expressly stated that there would be support for greater economic growth, price stability and low inflation, even as he hinted on the continued tight monetary policy stance of the Bank and the establishment of a Bankers’ Charitable Endowment Fund.

Emefiele unveiled the bank’s plans for the next year while delivering the keynote address titled, “Strong Sustainable growth for the Nigerian Economy” at the 54th Annual Bankers’ Dinner organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos on Friday, November 29, 2019.

The governor announced the establishment of a Bankers’ Charitable Endowment Fund that will fund a major charitable initiative every year starting in 2020. According to him, the Bankers’ Charitable Endowment will directly fund strategic social programmes in states and local communities across Nigeria. He expressed the hope that the Fund would spur a trend across other industries and sectors to collaborate and work together to better the lives of all Nigerians.

Speaking on the developments in the country’s economic and financial sector, over the past year, and how they affect the macro-economic outlook for 2020, he said in spite of the positive growth the economy experienced, growth had remained slow due to “some structural constraints” in the economy.

According to him, the pace of growth, given Nigeria’s growing population, exposed the economy to shocks, such as changes in the oil price, and sentiments in the global financial markets.

Disclosing plans by the CBN to support the economic recovery and enable stronger growth for the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Mr. Emefiele said that the Bank would continue its current tight stance, particularly in view of rising inflation expectations.

“Though we will act to appropriately adjust the policy rate in line with unfolding conditions and outlooks, the CBN will continue to ensure that the policy interest rate is delicately set to balance the objectives of price stability with output stabilisation,” he explained.

Doing a recap of the highlights for 2019, Mr. Emefiele recalled that the country’s GDP had remained positive, adding that the positive growth in GDP had been driven by improvements in agriculture, oil and gas, manufacturing and ICT as well as the intervention programmes of the CBN, along with sustained supply of foreign exchange and stability of the naira.

He also attributed the decline in inflation to the Bank’s maintenance of a tighter monetary policy rate at 13.5 percent, and its efforts at improving local production of key staple items.

Speaking further, he said the Nigerian financial system was now stronger due to the fact that capital buffers and liquidity in the banking system have continued to improve.

According to him, industry-wide Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) had increased from 10.2 percent in December 2017 to 15.5 percent in September 2019. He added that the percentage of non-performing loans in the banking sector had reduced from a high of 14.7 percent in January 2017 to under 7 percent as at October 2019.

He equally disclosed that credit conditions in the banking system had improved supported by the CBN’s new policy measures announced in June 2019, which require banks to maintain a minimum 65 percent loan to deposit ratio. Furthermore, he said banks in the country are now able to recover delinquent loans from customers’ accounts in other banks, adding that the measures now placed Nigerian banks in a much better position towards supporting a stronger economic recovery. This, he added, had increased gross credit by N1.16 trillion between May and October 2019.

On the country’s External Reserves, the governor said the Bank’s effort at supporting domestic production in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors among other policies had continued to encourage foreign exchange inflows into the Nigerian market. According to him, over $60 billion worth of transaction had taken place since the inception of the Investors’ and Exporters’ window in April 2017, adding that Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves were above $40bn as at October 2019, compared to $23bn in the same period in 2016.

The governor also highlighted the Bank’s effort in development financing, which he said the CBN had sustained in order to help support growth in critical sectors of the economy such as agriculture and the manufacturing sectors, through programmes such as the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, the Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme and the Bankers Committee Agri-Business/Small and Medium Enterprises Investment Scheme (AGSMEIS).

Alluding to the economic face-off between some countries, as well as the likely challenges the economy could face due to moderate oil prices, he stressed the need for Nigeria to build up the necessary buffers that would protect the economy from pressures in the global market. He then restated the need to boost local production and diversify the country’s export base.

“We should encourage Nigerians to consume goods that can be produced in Nigeria, knowing full well that a time will come when we may not have the foreign exchange to aid such activities, if we continue to rely on earnings from the export of crude oil,” he emphasised.

Recalling the country’s economic glorious past when the economy was heavily reliant on agriculture, with increased cultivation and exports of primary products such as cocoa, palm oil, cotton and groundnut, Emefiele posited that it possible to envision a productive Nigerian economy that is not reliant on exports of crude oil.

The governor urged all stakeholders to believe in Nigeria’s greatness, stressing that the country was blessed with abundant human and natural resources, which if truly harnessed would propel Nigeria into one of the world’s top 20 economies.

“We must redouble our efforts to continue to support actions by the monetary and fiscal authorities to diversify the base of the Nigerian economy through encouragement of made in Nigeria products.

“We must also consume what we produce and produce what we consume. We must discourage the propensity to import what can be produced in Nigeria. This is because if we do not reduce import, the same imports will kill us knowing full well that such activities do not aid our efforts to create jobs and support the growth of our local industries.

“If we choose to follow the trend of supporting imports of goods that can be produced in Nigeria, we will lose jobs, our industries will die and insecurity and other social vices in our land will continue to increase. We must choose this alternative path of improving domestic production, which will support growth of our local economy,” he charged.

As part of the Bank’s priorities for 2020, he said the CBN was determined to maintain its stable exchange policy stance in the near to medium term given the relatively high level of reserves. He said the Bank would also sustain these efforts in 2020 as part of our plan to reduce our financial exclusion rate to under 20 percent over the next year.

The governor said the Bank will also improve access to credit for farmers and SMES by deepening its intervention efforts through the Anchor Borrowers’ Programme, Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme and the Real Sector Support Funds, amongst others. Similarly, he said the Bank, in pushing to improve access to finance and credit, would protect them from unfair banking and lending practices by maintaining oversight on the banks and other financial institutions.

In addition to making sure that financial institutions support the growth of the real sector, Mr. Emefiele said the CBN, working with the Nigerian Export Import Bank (NEXIM), improve access to the N500bn facility designed to support the growth of Nigeria’s non-oil exports.

While disclosing that the Bank, working with the fiscal authorities, will support the recovery of the economy, the CBN boss reiterated that Nigeria was open to business and urged investors to take advantage of the investment opportunities in Nigeria. He assured that investments in Nigeria would be duly protected by the authorities.

Like Vladimir and Estragon, the two characters in Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot, would Nigerians get the expected reliefs promised by the government? Time will tell.

The decision by the Federal Government to comply with court orders by releasing ex-National Security Adviser (NSA), Mohammed Sambo Dasuki and online publisher, Omoyele Sowore has attracted commendation. But many have cautioned that it is not yet jubilation time, but a moment to step up the fight for a society, where the rule of law and citizens’ rights are supreme. Eric Ikhilae, reports on prospects for change in the new year.

In its “Freedom in the World 2019” report, the global rights monitoring group – Freedom House – said Nigeria improved in its observance of human rights and compliance with the rule of law principle of democratic governance. Freedom House, in the report which assesses the country’s performance in the previous year, labelled Nigeria as “partly free,” scored it 50 over 100. And, after a sector-by-sector scrutiny, observed that the country recorded some progress in 2018, with the potential of doing more this year.

This was before the December 24, 2019 announcement, by the Minister of Justice and Attorney general of the Federation (AGF), Abubakar Malami, of the Federal Government’s decision to comply with the many court decisions, granting bail to former National Security Adviser (NSA), Mohammed Sambo Dasuki and online publisher, Omoyele Sowore.

The decision has been greeted with mixed feelings. Some with optimism, seeing it as a sign of good things to come, while many are simply indifference, seeing it as a mere flash in the pan, and arguing that a lot still needs to be done.

There is indeed more to be done in view of the many existing factors capable of either constraining the nation’s progress or aid its retrogression in its future rating. These factors exist in some key thematic areas and more.

Reluctance in obeying court orders

The President Muhammadu Buhari-led government was gradually assuming the toga of an administration with scant regard for the key democratic practices of observance of rule of law and respect for citizens’ rights until it made the announcement on December 24, 2019.

The release of Dasuki and Sowore has seen many calling on the Federal Government to, not only sustain the momentum, but improve on it by releasing others still being held in custody. Prominent among those, whose release is being demanded is the leader of Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN) Sheikh Ibrahim El-Zakzaky.

Beside members of the IMN, notable names like Mike Ozekhome (SAN), Femi Falana (SAN) and others commended the Federal Government and urged it t extend the gesture to El-Zakzaky, who has been in custody, with his wife, since 2015.

Ozekhome said: “I am happy the government has finally realised its faux pas and is seeing the same light which I saw since 2015, when I kicked against the illegal incarceration of Dasuki. It is never too late to take corrective measures and make amends. There is nothing like something good happening at a bad time, or something bad happening at a good time.

“This government is beginning to see the importance of the rule of law prevailing over rule of the thumb and over so- called national security, which is a euphemism for security of a government in power.

“The government should add El-Zakzaky to the list of detainees to be released, because the whole world, aside government apologists and grovelers, see all of them as political prisoners.

“Respect for rule of law and citizens’ fundamental rights constitute some of the key building blocks of democracy. Obedience to court orders, however distasteful, constitutes the irreducible minimum of a civilized nation.”

On his part, Falana, who acted as El-Zakzaky’s lawyer urged government to release other political detainees and criminal suspects in line with valid and subsisting orders of courts.

Falana said: “In particular, we request the Federal Government to liaise with the Kaduna State Government to withdraw the charge filed against Sheikh Ibraheem El-zakzaky and his wife, Mrs Zeenat Elzakzaky who have been detained since December 14, 2015.

“The Federal High Court had on December 2, 2016 declared the detention of the couple illegal and unconstitutional and ordered the federal government to release them from custody forthwith.

“Apart from awarding them reparation of N50 million the Federal High Court also ordered the Federal Government to provide them with a temporary accommodation since the Nigerian Army had destroyed their family house in Zaria.

“However, in a bid to stop the protests of the Shiites who were demanding for the release of their leaders on the basis of the orders of the federal high court the federal government asked the Kaduna state government to arraign the couple in the Kaduna state high court.

“Even though they have been charged with procuring certain persons to kill a soldier the Kaduna state high court has since discharged and acquitted the persons allegedly procured by the El-Zakzakys to kill the said soldier.”

However, the Minister of Justice and Attorney General of the Federation (AGF), Abubakar Malami has distinguished the cases. He argued that while the cases involving Dasuki and Sowore are within the control of the Federal Government, whose agencies are prosecuting them, that of El-Zakzaky and his wife are outside its control.

Malami faulted claim Falana that the Federal Government has control over how the trial of El-Zakzaky and his wife was being conducted and could influence their release. He noted that they were being tried by the Kaduna State Government under its laws.

The AGF said, in a statement issued by his spokesman, Umar Gwandu, said: “In determining the authority responsible for compliance with a court order with particular reference to bail, one must be guided by the law under which the accused person is charged and granted bail.

“On one hand, where the accused is charged under a state law, the order of the court granting bail for an accused person bail is targeted at the state authorities for compliance. On the other hand, where charges are framed under federal offences, the order granting bail is targeted at the federal authorities for compliance.”

Despite the AGF’s attempt to distinguish the cases, there is actually a similarity in the three cases. The similarity exists in the manner the Federal Government and its agencies have handled the cases so far, particularly in relation to compliance with court orders. This development, perhaps accounts for why many do not seem to see the dissimilarity that on the AGF alone seem to be seeing.

El-Zakzaky: When FG ignored court orders

The El-Zakzaky couple was arrested December 14, 2015 shortly after a deadly clash between members of the IMN and a convoy of the Chief of Army Staff and was subsequently detained.

On realizing that the Federal Government would neither charge them with any offence nor release them, but instead preferring to keep them in custody, El-Zakzaky and his wife filed two fundamental rights enforcement suits, marked: Zakzaky marked: FHC/ABJ/CS/281/2016 and FHC/ABJ/CS/282/2016 before the Federal High Court, Abuja.

Despite opposition by the Federal Government and denial of any wrong doing, Justice Gabriel Kolawole, in a judgment on December 2, 2016, upheld the argument made for the couple by Falana, and declared their detention unlawful.

Justice Kolawole, who faulted the claim by the Department of State Services (DSS) and the AGF (who were listed as 1st and 3rd respondents) that the couple were kept in protective custody, said no law in the country provide them (the state agents) with such powers.

The judge said after reviewing the arguments of parties and the documents filed, he was unable to find any law that justifies the detention of El-Zakzaky and his wife since December last year.

In the judgment, Justice described the invasion of the couple’s residence by soldiers, the physical attack on the man and the couple’s detention as unlawful, and awarded N25m damages to each of them. He likened the reported invasion and eventual destruction of El-Zakzaky’s residence in Kaduna to the 1977 invasion the Lagos home of the late Afrobeat musician, Fela Anikulapo Kuti.

Justice Kolawole said the description of the invasion of the applicants’ home by armed soldiers between December 12 to 14, 2015 (as contained in their supporting affidavit) could best be categorised as “rather gory and blood chilling in a democratic state and arguably, in peace time.

“It, for me, as a student of judicial history, bear a sad reminder and telling reminiscences of the unfortunate incidents that involved the illustrious family of the Nigerian popular musician, the late Mr. Femi Anikulapo Kuti in February 1977 under the military government and which eventually, led to the Supreme Court’s judgment in Chief Dr. Mrs. Olufunmilayo Ransome Kuti & 3 others v. The AGF & 8 others (1985) 2 NWLR (pt 6) SC 211.

“The 1st and 3rd respondents, in my view, in so far as they have also not preferred any criminal charge, in a court of competent jurisdiction, against the applicants, may have unwittingly, even with the best of intention, acted in gross violation of the provisions of Section 35(3),(4) and (5) of the Constitution in relation to the applicant and his wife, who is an applicant in a sister suit, which was directed to abide the eventual outcome of this suit.

“The applicant and his wife shall be released within 45 days from today from the 1st respondent’s custody, and shall be handed to the 2nd respondent (IGP), who shall, in turn, take the applicant and his wife to the accommodation, which the 3rd respondent (AGF) is directed to provide pending when the applicant is able to sort himself out with the case, I am told, he has filed in the High Court of Kaduna State against the Nigerian Army, whose soldiers allegedly destroyed his residence in the manner similar to what happened, some 39 years ago, to the family of the late Mr. Fela Anikulapo Kuti in Lagos State,” he said.

The judge warned that he will treat it as a deliberate disobedience of the order of court should the DSS and the AGF failed to release the applicant and his wife from custody at the expiration of the 45 days given.

He equally warned the IGP and his officials against mis-interpreting or abusing the order that they should provide 24 security for the couple and its family.

Justice Kolawole explained that his reason for not ordering the immediate release of the couple, as requested in their applications, was because of the information that their residence had been completely destroyed and they may have nowhere to live.

He explained that the order for 24 hours police protection of the couple was informed by the claim by the DSS and AGF that they had information about the possible attack of the applicant and his wife by aggrieved neighbours.

The judge added: “The IGP or any of its subordinate officers, not below the rank of Assistant Inspector General (AIG), when he received the applicant and his wife, as ordered herein, shall take immediate step, within 24 hours of receiving them for the 1st and 3rd respondents, convey the applicant and his wife, under necessary security escort to their place of abode as would have been provided by the 1st respondent working in conjunction with the 3rd respondent.

“The 2nd respondent shall then provide the applicant and his wife , adequate police protection which shall operate 24/7 until the alleged threats which were not proved by any admissible evidence, but left in the realm of speculation, are removed or significantly diminished.

“Let it be clearly stated and for the avoidance of doubt, that the protection, which the 2nd respondent shall accord to the applicant and his wife, shall not be used under any guise by the 2nd respondent to place or confine the applicant and his wife under any form of restriction, which would invariably translate to the 2nd respondent substituting its own ‘safe custody’ with the 1st respondent’s ‘protective custody.’

“The essence of the order, which I have made is to enable the applicant and his wife to be able to live their normal lives whilst being under constant protective watch by the 2nd respondent’s officers in their new place of abode,” Justice Kolawole said.

Rather than comply with the orders contained in the December 2, 2016 judgment, the Federal Government took no steps. It kept the couple in detention and went about arrested members of IMN who later became violent in their persistent protest of their leader’s detention without trial.

On April 18, 2018 the Kaduna State Government filed an eight-count charge of unlawful gathering, criminal conspiracy and culpable homicide against El-Zakzaky and three others.

Some of the alleged offences are punishable under sections 59 and 190 of the Kaduna State Penal Code Law, 2017. The allegation of homicide is punishable by death, under Section 190 of the same law

El-Zakzaky and wife were later arraigned before a Kaduna State High Court and have been remanded since then. The court rejected their request for bail, but instead granted them, on August 5, 2019, permission to travel abroad for medical treatment. Although the couple left Nigeria on August 12, 2019 for Medanta Hospital in New Delhi, India, they returned home sooner than expected on August 16, 2019 on the grounds that they were not comfortable with the arrangement.

The couple, who have all this while been held in the custody of the DSS, upon their return from India, applied to be moved to prison, an application that the court granted on December 5, 2019 and adjourned until February 6, 2020 for the commencement of trial.

Other cases of rights violation by state agents/agencies – soldiers, policemen, etc

Beside the known cases of Dasuki, Sowore and El-Zakzaky, there are many more Nigerians who have had their rights violated under the current administration. Such cases may not be instigated by the state, they are committed by agents of the state, who still operate freely owing to the failure of the government to act appropriately.

Amnesty International in late 2016 made public a report on Nigeria alleging that 240 people, including infants, died in military detention camps in the North East while 177 pro-Biafran agitators were allegedly extra-judicially killed in the same year.

Bothered by this report and other allegations of abuses against the military, the Federal Government, in August 2017 constituted a panel headed by Justice Biobele A. Georgewill of the Court of Appeal to investigate compliance by officials of the Armed Forces with human rights obligations and rules of engagement, especially in local conflict and insurgency situations.

As part of its terms of reference, the panel was “to review extant rules of engagement applicable in the Armed Forces of Nigeria and extent of compliance thereto.”

It was equally “empowered to investigate alleged acts of violation of international humanitarian and human rights law under the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended), Geneva Conventions Act, African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights (Ratification and Enforcement) Act and other relevant laws by Nigerian security agencies.”

The panel went about its job, held public sittings in Abuja, Maiduguri, Port Harcourt, Enugu, Kaduna and Lagos where it heard from victims and witnesses, who described a range of alleged violations by security forces, including extra-judicial executions, torture, rape, enforced disappearances and the burning down of villages.

The panel submitted its report in February 2018 and since then nothing has been heard about u=its findings and what the Federal Government has done with them.

In the height of the intense clamour by Nigerians for the disbandment of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) of the Nigeria Police following frequent reports of rights abuses associated with its operations, the Federal Government directed the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) to investigate the agency and suggest needed reforms.

In compliance with the presidential directive, the NHRC in September 2018 inaugurated a seven-man Special Investigative Panel to look into the activities of the SARS and make recommendations for its reform.

The panel sat for months and at the completion of its assignment, submitted its report to President Muhammadu Buhari on June 3, 2019. But till date, nothing has also been heard from the Federal Government about the findings and recommendations of the panel on SARS.

Indeed, the panel on SARS like other panels constituted by this government before it, made some mind boggling findings and suggested needed reforms that would have transformed the relevant institutions, but for the consistent inaction on the part of the government, who seems to enjoy setting up panels and committees, where public funds are expended, but with less interest on the outcome of the exercises.

The panel on SARS for instance, found cases of extortion, use of torture as mean of investigation, outright conversion of exhibits and other confiscated items by police officers.

On the issues of arbitrary arrests and detentions, the panel found that “there were cases of arbitrary arrests and detentions of persons by some police officers on the pretext that they were suspecting them. Some of the persons arrested and detained were later labeled by the police as armed robbers or responsible for crimes they did not commit.

“In the process of such arrests, police officers would resort to methods that are outside the legal guidelines, police methods and procedures and subjecting suspects to inhuman and degrading treatment in the form of beatings, hitting with gun butts, insults, threats, gunshots and intimidation.

“It was apparent that some of the operatives of SARS, mostly the upcoming young police officers, lack in-depth knowledge of Police procedures and processes which could partly explain their arbitrariness in arresting and detaining suspects or deliberate disregard to the law, rules of procedure and police regulations.”

On the complaints of abuse of the bail process and other forms of extortion, the panel said it “established cases of extortion by police officers of the SARS using various methods. This included asking suspects or their relations to pay money for the release of the suspect that were arbitrarily arrested; asking suspects whether they had money on them to give the police; and, making suspects to withdraw from ATMs to give officers.

“Bail had become a source of making money by the side as no records of bail funds collected appear to be recorded for accountability. Hence the resort to arbitrary arrests and detention when officers of SARS are broke as a way to raise quick funds for their weekends, house rents or children School fees or personal development projects or to acquire and confiscate the property of others.”

The panel equally found that “properties, especially vehicles, were confiscated from the complainants and taken to the offices of the SARS pending investigations. The seized vehicles were not properly documented and were subsequently, without following due process, auctioned to police officers.

“As a result of the auction the owners of the vehicles were made to suffer deprivation of the use of their vehicles and property contrary to Section 44 of the Constitution.

“The confiscation of property by police officers raises questions on the character of some of the police officers operating under the auspices of SARS with further damaging effect on the reputation of the police as an institution charged with the responsibility of protecting life and property. However, in this case, it was the police that became the perpetrators of confiscation of property from citizens.”

A lawyer, Dr. Abubakar Dutse expressed disappointment that the Federal Government was reluctant to act on the findings and recommendations of the various panels and committees it has set up before now on the issue of right abuses and the need to deepen democratic culture by adhering to the rule of law.

Dutse added: “It is sad that this government is chasing shadows when there a lot to be done. What happened to the reports and recommendations of the panel that you spoke about? Why would a government constitute a panel, fund its activities with public funds only to turn around and discard the report of the same panel?

“That is a waste of public funds and a form of corruption. Why waste the nation’s scarce resources on the panel whose reports and recommendations you know you will not act on?” He said.

Need for conducive atmosphere for citizens to exercise their rights to vote

Some have also argued that a government did not necessarily need to arrest and detain citizens before their rights are said to have been infringed on. They not the persistent violence being witnessed during election, which has consistently made it impossible for many electorate to participate in the electoral process for fair of being harmed or killed.

After the last governorship elections in Bayelsa and Kogi states, it was the view of many that the level of violence and desperation witnessed has depicted this government as one amenable to the deprivation of citizen’s right to freely perform their constitutionally guaranteed right to choose their leaders and determine who should run their affairs.

At a recent function in Abuja, Falana warned that if the Federal Government and other stakeholders in the nation’s electoral process fail to take action against electoral impunity and brigandage, “as recently witnesses in Kogi and Bayelsa,” the people’s voting right would have been successful stolen by the politicians.

He added: “With what happened in Kogi and Bayelsa states, you do not expect people to want to participate in a war. Because, in Nigeria, election has become war for the ruling class, because if you win, you win in all manifestations.

“You win the battle for the control of the treasury, you win the battle for impunity, and you win the battle to destroy the values that we hold dear in this country. If we are therefore going to address this problem, we have to decide as a people the type of country we want.

“What had just happened in Bayelsa and Kogi states is what I call gun boat democracy. It was a war. Anybody who participates in a war know that he/she is going to lose his/her life. That is why the number of voters will continue to reduce, if we fail to address impunity on the part of the ruling class.”

Needs for laws to discourage rights abuses and impunity

There is also the argument that this administration has not done well by its inability to engaged in robust review of the nation’s laws and enact new ones that encourage the protection of citizens; rights and respect for rule of law.

Rights activists, Chidi Odinkalu and Sunday Essienekak queried the proprietress of the National Assembly’s decision to direct efforts at restraining the people’s right to freedom of speech in the form of the Hate Speech Bill and Protection from Internet Falsehoods and Manipulation and Other Related Matters Bill when they could devote their legislative time to meaningful uses.

On the Bill that seeks to monitor citizens’ uses of the internet and social media, Odinkalu argued that “contrary to its title, the bill is far from solely or even substantially about Internet falsehoods and manipulation.

“Like Decree No. 4, this bill creates nebulous crimes in open-ended, subjective language, such as statements ‘likely to be prejudicial to the security of Nigeria or any part thereof.’

“The crime of making a statement ‘prejudicial to public health, public safety, public tranquility or public finance’ can be used, for instance, to jail any citizen for criticising a thieving politician.

“The bill also proposes to criminalise statements that are likely to ‘influence the outcome of an election to any office’.

This provision effectively would prohibit digital campaigns by opposition parties, because all campaign statements made digitally are designed to influence election outcomes. It’s a charter for a single-party state and an end to political pluralism,” Odinkalu said.

Essienekak wants the enactment of laws that will promote human rights and rule of law rather than those with the capability to stifle them, He cited the provision of Section 84 of Sheriff and Civil Processes Act (SCPA). which he argued, encourages impunity among public officers and public institutions.

He argued that it was unfair on Nigerian for Section 84 of SCPA which forms part of the nation’s colonial relics to still exist in Nigeria even when the British has since scrapped the law.

“With Section 84 the battle for human rights in this country is no more encouraging. The reason why the police and other security agencies continue to abuse human rights is because of the existence of this Section 84.

“Take away Section 84 of the SCPA you would effectively curb arbitrariness and impunity among personnel of these security agencies. If you publish in a newspaper today that anybody with judgments or cases of rights abuses against the police and other security agencies to come forward, I believe you will get over two million,

“This is because if they initiate garnishee proceedings to enforce this kind of  monetary judgment, the Central Bank of Nigeria becomes a defendant and they swiftly raise the flag of Section 84 of the SCPA, which requires that you must first obtain the consent of the Attorney General at the federal level or the state level, depending on which government agency is involved. And you can hardly get any Attorney General to grant you consent.

“So, quote me very well. The reason why human rights are not respected in this country is because of the existence of Section 84 of the SCPA. Any day that section is struct out or invalidated, that is when you will see the government officers and security agencies begin to respect human rights.

“Section 84 of the Sheriffs and Civil Process Act is evil. And, it is the only reason why human right is a child play in Nigeria. Sadly, despite the harm that this law is doing, the Legislature, the Judiciary and even the Nigeria Human Rights Commission folds their hands to watch the deteriorating situation of human rights in Nigeria.

‘We only pay lip service to human rights in the country. The battle to have Section 84 expunged from our law book ought to be championed by the NHRC. The commission is supposed to propose a legislation for the repeal of that section of the law. The Nigerian Bar Association and other stakeholders ought to be interested in this,” Essienekak said.

A market place where food and other edibles are sold is expected to be clean and hygienic, but what exists in Lagos and environs often the opposite. Gboyega Alaka and Omolara Akintore report.

In Ikotun, the story is the same, if not worse. Just a few weeks before penning this feature, the market centre point was an eye-sore, with heaps of refuse threatening to submerge the market women. Of course, the stench perforated the whole market atmosphere, causing a visitor – at least one who is not used to the environment – to wonder if this was indeed a market where foods and other consumables are sold, or a sewage cistern area.

A couple of refuse evacuation vehicles were packed, rather aimlessly, with filth and grime spilling. Yellowish liquid, residue of decaying refuse meandered on the floor, making indiscriminate branching. Perhaps one of the worst sights for this reporter was an occasion when one of the roasted fish sellers spilled her wares and immediately bent and picked them, not minding the fact that a couple actually fell into the stinking liquid. A woman, not too far from this reporter grimaced in irritation, but virtually every other who witnessed the spectacle simply went about their respective business. Possibly, they’ve become so used to such sights that they needed not waste their emotions.

One of the traders said she could not tell if the refuse vehicles were functional or if they were going to be moved anytime soon, as they had been stationary there for days.

However, on a second visit, early December, the situation at the market centre earlier described, had significantly improved, though not satisfactorily. The mountain of refuse had been levelled, though the refuse vehicles remained, with the dregs and the stench.  Green bottle flies also buzzed freely, compounding the rather dangerous situation. One of the traders volunteered that the market leaders asked them to contribute N6,000 each to clear the refuse.

Asked how comfortable they were sitting and trading in the sordid atmosphere, one of the traders, a fruit seller, simply shrugged and said, “Nothing. As you can see, they have cleared the refuse. If you had been here a few weeks back, you would have understood what I’m trying to say.”

When reminded that the stench and the buzzing flies could be as dangerous as the heaps of refuse that had disappeared, she simply shrugged and said, “I don’t think so. We even eat here and nothing happens to us. As you can see, we are here morning till night every day, sometimes on Sundays, and nothing happens to us.”

Another trader, a plastic seller, who was eating at the time of this visit, simply waved this reporter away, saying, “Oga please go, dirty no dey kill black people.”

One of the fresh fish sellers overlooking the refuse centre also said she didn’t see any danger in the exposure of her fish to the filth, since buyers would cook them anyway.

This is however contrary to the position of Dr. Chidinma Okafor, a Public Health Physician with the Nigerian Institute of Medical Research (NIMR), who declared that “most diarrhoea diseases are gotten through this means. Lassa fever is a disease acquired from unhygienic conditions. Some of these food, apart from exposing them in the daytime, even when the sellers are going home, they still keep them exposed, and we know that Lassa fever is gotten from the excreta of rats. If it is a rat that has the virus, it automatically transfers it to human beings.”

Danger in the market place

Food safety has therefore remained a major concern, especially amongst health workers. The location of some restaurants and food processing endeavours has been known to contribute greatly to food poisoning. Madam Okafor Justina had gone for shopping in an open market on her free day. She planned to stock the home with food items – both raw and fresh. However, after having done with the shopping, she realised that she was famished and needed to eat. Some Good Samaritan directed her to a ‘bukataria’ inside the market. On getting there, Okafor discovered that a dumpsite was not far from the food vendor, but many people patronising her seemed less concerned. To them, satisfying their hunger seemed to be more important than whatever health implications the dumpsites may be posing.

Aside being essential for living, food provides nutrients for the body. Nutrients are substances that provide energy for activity, growth, and all functions of the body such as breathing, digestion and keeping warm. They also provide materials for the growth and repair of the body, and for keeping the immune system healthy.

On the other hand, fruits according to nutritionists are essential for preservation of the human body, and in assurance of good health as they offer vital nutrients needed for the body to function appropriately.

Lagos, no doubt is experiencing explosion in trade in food, particularly fruits and vegetables. Sadly, most of the avenues for dispensing these food items – particularly the open markets – are either situated in very dirty environments, in a sea of refuse, or on reclaimed wasteland.

A visit to markets such as Idi-Oro fruit market, Ketu/Mile 12 and Ile-Epo markets, among others reveals that they all share the same characteristics – environment of filth.

Some are so dirty that buyers go there with special protective gears, including, rain boots and nose cover. The detestable stench oozing from these markets as a result of decomposed food and fruits under high temperature is so upsetting that it takes a bold mind to shop in them.

This perhaps dictated the recent shut down of Oyingbo market in Lagos. The Managing Director of Lagos Waste Management Agency, LAWMA, had sited indiscriminate dumping of refuse and refusal to patronise the Private Sector Participation (PSP) operators

Heaps of refuse – fresh and decaying, are common and unending sights in Lagos markets. This complicates matters for traders and patrons as well as residents in the environs, as they are not safe from the stench and resultant air, pests and insect-borne diseases and possible epidemic.

Sikirat Abdul, who resides not too far from Ile-Epo Market on the outskirts of Lagos, lamented the improper handling of fruits and other food items in the market, which she said exposes consumers to avoidable diseases.

According to Biola Ashiyanbi, a biochemist, refuse sites harbor disease-causing bacteria, which can be dangerous to both buyers and sellers. “For instance when flies from such filthy sites perch on fruits, food and water, they can develop diseases such as cholera, diarrhoea and typhoid fever, which can kill many people within few hours.”

One major barrier to food safety in most Nigerian markets is lack of proper waste disposal and toilet facilities. Most of the markets are marked by unsanitary conditions, such as poor drainage systems, overcrowding and poor waste disposal which leads to poor hygiene (personal and environmental).  Of great concern also are the food ingredients and the source. Raw materials and ingredients are usually purchased from the open markets, where items are displayed openly on tables, on bare ground, sometimes muddy places and around filthy gutters. Also, buyers are mostly in the habit of touching the food stuffs with unwashed fingers either to feel the texture or to ascertain the fineness of the powder in case of grounded stuff.

This is in addition to hordes of flies that buzz all over and perch on the food items such as meat, fish, fruits and grounded food stuff such as garri, yam flour and co, posing potential danger of contamination.

Nigerian markets not the best for hygiene – Public health physician

According to Dr. Chidinma Okafor a Public Health Physician with the Nigerian Institute of Medical Research (NIMR), generally speaking, Nigerian open markets cannot be referred to as best considering the unhygienic exposure of foods and fresh fruits.

“But in a place where we have proper regulatory services, where the markets obey the right standard, there is nothing wrong with open markets especially if those foods are not exposed to the hazards of the environment. There are so many health hazards to all these foods, starting from the diseases acquired from it. Not only are you exposing the food to dust alone but also to flies, which transfer diseases from one place to the other. A buyer gets to the market, buys the food without washing his hands, puts it in his mouth, and most diarrhoea diseases are gotten through this means. Lassa fever is a disease acquired from unhygienic condition, some of these foods apart from exposing them in daytime, even when the sellers are going home they still expose them where they keep them and we know that Lassa fever is gotten from the excreta of rats. If it’s a rat that has the virus, it automatically transfers the virus to human beings.” Okafor explained.

“Also, having dumpsites around open markets is dangerous. We are not expected to have dumpsite close to where foods that are uncovered are sold because the ease of transmission of diseases is much enhanced in those unsanitary conditions. Another is contaminants from dust and pollutants in the air, dirty water around that splash into the foods such as Garri, Crayfish, as well as cooked foods. There is also the spectacle of people coming to touch this exposed food with their soiled hands. Where the foods are covered, it reduces contacts; most of the meats, fish sold in open markets are also contaminated because you see millions of flies milling around them. All these pose infection to those that consume them. The danger is worst with cooked food, because the food is already made, and the buyer comes, buys the food and consumes directly into the stomach. So if the vector like housefly has transmitted any dangerous organism into the food, it goes right into the stomach and this can cause food poisoning which can lead to death.”

Asked how this situation can be averted, Okafor said, “Fruits can be protected by being put in serviceable cartons, and other foods kept in transparent cellophanes whereby people can see what is inside the nylons. This reduces the dangers of touching and the dangers of contamination from vectors around the place, as well as other pollutants in the air.”

She therefore advises that “individuals should be wary of where they get what they consume. People are advised now to go into subsistence farming, whereby they plant what they eat. But when we have the proper regulatory authorities they should be able to checkmate all these loopholes. Those who sell foods in the market should also undergo Food Handlers Test. These foods should also be tested before they are pushed into the market.”

“Finally,” she said, “public education is key. Giving people rights to life saving information will help, because this will increase their literacy level, promote their health and help them to live in a healthy way.”