Governors Ahmad Aliyu (Sokoto) and Kefas Agbu (Taraba) have asked the Supreme Court to dismiss the appeals challenging their election victories.
The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its Sokoto State candidate in the last governorship election, Saidu Umar, are praying the Supreme Court in their appeal to set aside the November 27, 2023 judgment of the Court of Appeal, which affirmed Aliyu’s election victory.
In their appeal, the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) and its candidate in Taraba State, Sani Yahaya, are praying the apex court to reverse the November 28, 2023 judgment of the Court of Appeal, which upheld Agbu’s election.
Umar and the PDP had challenged Aliyu, and his party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), at the election petitions tribunal, alleging that Aliyu and his deputy, Idris Gobir, were not eligible to contest the governorship poll.
They claimed that Aliyu and Gobir submitted forged certificates with different names which they filed with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to aid their qualification for the election.
Umar and the PDP also claimed that the election was marred by electoral fraud in 138 polling units across the state.
In its judgment, the election tribunal dismissed the petition by Umar and the PDP, which the Court of Appeal upheld in its November 27 judgment.
But Yahaya and the NNPP challenged Agbu’s election on the grounds of non-compliance with the Electoral Act and that Agbu of the PDP didn’t score the majority of lawful votes cast.
The election tribunal rejected their petition, a decision the Court of Appeal affirmed in its November 28 judgment.
At yesterday’s hearing of the Sokoto appeal, lawyer to Umar and the PDP, Sunday Ameh (SAN), prayed the court to dismiss the preliminary objection filed by Aliyu and Gobir.
Ameh also prayed the court to allow his clients’ appeal and grant all the reliefs sought.
Lawyer to Aliyu and Gobir, Chief Wole Olanipekun (SAN), urged the court to uphold his clients’ preliminary objection and strike out the appeal or, alternatively, dismiss the appeal for lacking in substance and uphold the two concurrent decisions of the tribunal and Court of Appeal.
Lawyers to the APC and INEC – Hassan Liman (SAN) and Chukwudi Enebeli – also urged the court to dismiss the appeal.
Ruling, Justice Kudirat Kekere-Ekun, who led a five-member panel, said the parties would be informed when the judgment is ready.
The judge said, as agreed by lawyers to the parties, judgment in the appeal heard would be applied to a sister appeal.
On the Taraba case, appellants’ lawyer, Olusegun Jolaawo (SAN), urged the court to reject the preliminary objection filed by INEC, allow the appeal and grant all the reliefs sought.
Lawyers to the respondents, including Kanu Agabi (SAN), prayed the court to dismiss the appeal for being academic and affirm the concurrent judgments of the two lower courts.
Justice Kekere-Ekun also announced that judgment in the appeal, which is reserved, would be applied to the sister appeal.
The Federal Government has promised to fulfill its agreements with organised labour.
The Minister of State for Labour and Employment, Mrs. Nkeiruka Onyejeocha, announced this when she visited the office of the Trade Union Congress (TUC) yesterday in Abuja.
Mrs. Onyejeocha said her visit to some major trade unions was meant to maintain open communication, foster labour relations to prevent future strikes and ensure a friendly working environment for workers.
The minister said the government was aware of the plight of trade unions and was ready to partner with them.
She urged the unions to keep the channels of communication open.
“I am here specifically to reassure you that we have not forgotten about the agreements between the government and trade unions.
“Government is working round the clock to ensure that agreements with trade unions are fulfilled.
“Thank God that you have confirmed that the Federal Government has started paying the N35,000 wage award.
“I can assure you that the payment is on course and the outstanding will be paid within a short period of time,” Onyejeocha said.
The minister also said President Bola Tinubu was focusing on house to make a new national minimum wage a reality.
According to her, the Federal Government will ensure that the committee on new minimum wage starts work.
“I do not want to wait for any stakeholder to start agitating. That is why I came to remind you that we are working to make sure they are fulfilled.
“If there is any that we cannot fulfill now, including the past ones, we will continue our engagements on them,” Onyejeocha said.”
The minister assured the TUC leadership of Federal Government’s continued readiness to listen to them, as well as partner with them for the greater good of the people.
She praised them for having faith in the current administration.
TUC President Festus Osifo hailed the minister for her timely and thoughtful visit.
Osifo said the visit would building trust and mutual understanding between the government and the union.
He also hailed the government for some major steps it had taken so far, specifically for fulfilling up to 80 per cent of the agreement with the management of Road Transport Employers Association of Nigeria (RTEAN).
The TUC president urged the government to fulfill the remaining 20 per cent of the agreement.
“We are not a union that waits for the government to fail in order to hold it to ransom. That is why we keep engaging,” Osifo said.
Also, at a meeting with the leadership of Congress of University Academics (CONUA), Onyejeocha assured university unions of the government’s willingness to work with them.
The minister said the government was ready to address their concerns satisfactorily.
CONUA Chairman Niyi Sunmonu listed some of the challenges the union was facing.
The union leader urged the government to expedite the implementation of agreements with the unions.
He assured the government of a strike-free future with continued government understanding and commitment.
Three persons have been confirmed dead, 77 injured and over 50 other houses destroyed in the explosion that shook Ibadan, report BISI OLADELE, YINKA ADENIRAN; SEGUN SHOWUNMI, Ibadan; PRECIOUS IGBONWELUNDU, Lagos; BOLAJI OGUNDELE, Abuja and OSAGIE OTABOR, Akure
The extent of the losses from Tuesday night’s explosion that rocked Ibadan, the Oyo State capital, became clearer yesterday.
Governor Seyi Makinde said it was not a terror attack but was caused by explosives stored by illegal miners.
Makinde, at a briefing, also said three people died; 77 persons were injured.
He said: “We visited the scene of the explosion which occurred at about 7.44 pm in Bodija, Ibadan.
“This unfortunate incident resulted in death and injury to residents in the vicinity and also affected properties.
“We have already deployed first responders and all relevant agencies within Oyo State to carry out comprehensive search and rescue operations. These operations will continue throughout the night.
“Earth-moving equipment, ambulances, emergency lights, and security were deployed to the scene of the incident.
“The wounded and injured are being treated and moved to public and private hospitals within Ibadan.
“Medical personnel are on standby at these hospitals to provide all needed assistance to the injured. We have visited UCH to see some of those injured during the incident.
“In total, we have 77 injured victims so far, most of whom were treated and discharged, and three fatalities.
“May their souls rest in peace and may God give their loved ones the fortitude to bear this irreparable loss.
“I have directed that the medical bills of all victims be covered by the government. We will also be providing temporary accommodation for those whose houses were affected and ensuring that they are supported to rebuild their lives.
“Preliminary investigations by the security agencies revealed that illegal miners occupying one of the houses in Bodija had stored explosive devices there which caused the blast.
“The investigations are ongoing. All those found culpable for this will be brought to book.”
The governor urged all residents to call 615 for help and to stay away from the scene to allow for smooth rescue operations.
“We are grateful to the first responders, security personnel and all those who are at the scene to assist with the rescue operations as well as the medical personnel taking care of the injured.
“Please say a prayer for those who have been affected by this disaster as we continue with the rescue operations,” he added.
Makinde said the state has identified the company that stored the explosives, assuring that they will be brought to justice.
The governor said President Bola Tinubu spoke to him to commiserate with families who lost loved ones.
Special Adviser on Security to the governor, Fatai Owoseni, said the area had been secured.
He added: “We want to use this opportunity to correct misgivings. People have come out to say that Boko Haram elements have been allowed to invade Oyo State, especially Ibadan. This is incorrect.
“Some people have also said a helicopter flew over the place and dropped the bomb. That is, in its entirety, incorrect too.
“People have said construction sites around that place had used dynamite, and in the course of that, the incident happened. Let me say it is also not correct.
“We, from the security angle, can say that the preliminary evidence is indicative that for some time, people must have been storing explosives in that area, and it is not just fresh.
“It must have been something that had accumulated for some time. His Excellency has always said if you see something, you must say something.”
VIPs, SAN, govt buildings affected
The havoc wreaked by the explosion on houses in the community was massive.
Four houses were reduced to rubble while over 10 others were damaged beyond repair.
So were cars parked on the roads and inside the compounds. Cars damaged are over 10 across the streets.
All the houses within a 500-metre radius were affected at varying degrees while over 100 houses within 2,000 metre radius recorded minor damage.
Most of them had their ceilings and windows shattered including an outlet of Domino’s on Awolowo Avenue. The popular Ace mall on the same road has its ceilings shattered.
Also affected were several buildings in the state secretariat which is about 1,000 meters away and the University College Hospital (UCH) which is about 1,500 meters away.
Many buildings had their windows and ceilings shattered.
Others in the neighbourhood include hotels, shops and restaurants.
At the state secretariat, some glass windows of the Governor’s Office were shattered.
It was gathered that even the glass windows of the governor’s private office and hallways were also shattered by the explosion.
Buildings of many ministries suffered the same fate.
They include ministries of Information and Orientation; Youths and Sports; Environment and Natural Resources.
Others include the Civil Service Commission and the Management Information Centre; Water Cooperation Building which houses some ministries; State Secretariat Central Mosque; the Secretariat Chapel, Revenue House, the newly built Local Government Service House, and the Local Government Staff Training School.
Mostly glass windows and doors were seen damaged.
Glasses were shattered on the floor, ceilings were forced down, doors were forcefully opened and damaged, and computer systems were also affected in some offices.
Houses of prominent people, including the late governor of old Oyo State Chief Bola Ige (SAN); former deputy governor Chief Iyiola Oladokun and a member of the Oyo State House of Assembly Olufunke Comforter-Olajide were affected by the explosion.
While Bola Ige’s house suffered minor damage, Oladokun’s roof was damaged; he had to move out of the house.
For Comforter-Olajide, the windows, glass fittings and the roof were badly affected. Her building is a hotel.
She told our reporter that some of her staff members were injured.
She said the incident left her devastated as the losses were huge.
The lawmaker, who represents Ibadan North Constituency 1 at the Oyo State House of Assembly, said: “You can see how the roof has been damaged. See the walls too and other fittings. The air conditioners were damaged. Some of my staff were injured.
“It’s devastating because nobody expected this. But we thank God for life.”
A Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Chief Niyi Akintola, lost his hotel.
He said: “It is a posh hotel in a posh area known as ‘House 40″ on Dejo Oyelese Street, Bodija.
“I recall that some of our colleagues had at one time enjoyed the hospitality of the modest 24 beds which include eight suites”
He said other members of the Bar whose properties were destroyed on the street include the late Chief Bandele Aiku (SAN), and a building said to belong to the late Governor of Ondo state, Oluwarotimi Akeredolu (SAN).
“My three other properties on Alabiamo Street, Adeyi Street and Adenuga Street were also slightly damaged… Oh my God, it is terrible.
“As I write this with my hands trembling, some guests and three hotel staff are in the hospital but we thank God that no casualty was recorded. What a way to start a new year,” Akintola said.
Survivors relive the night of horror
A former deputy governor of Oyo State, Iyiola Oladokun, said he and his family have been rendered homeless.
He said a friend provided temporary accommodation for him and his wife.
Oladokun narrated: “I am one of the residents of Dejo Oyelese Close. My house was affected. We were watching a football match when the explosion occurred. All the doors that were closed were forced open.
“It was very devastating. All the doors, burglaries, windows and even the roof are gone.
“We give glory to God that my wife and I were not hurt.
“I am just coming back now because we can’t sleep here again. We couldn’t sleep here yesterday. We had to move out yesterday.”
A survivor, who simply identified himself as Mohammed, was on his way to pray when the blast occurred.
He said: “The incident occurred around 8pm. I was going to pray. I saw a spark of fire. I came down and told my boys to bring the car key to take the fire extinguisher.
“By the time I came out, all occupants of the buildings said it had gone past the stage of fire extinguisher.
“I think the fire started from their side. Those guys are miners, they have dynamites in their house.
“So I told my boys to bring my phone to call the fire service. Shortly after that, we heard the blast which took me off the ground. I thought I was gone. There was smoke everywhere.
“I started to trace my step when I regained consciousness. My children started crying and I had to take them out of the estate.”
The estate
The estate, which is a medium-density government residential community, was established for upper-middle-class professionals during the defunct Western Regional government headed by the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo.
It is the first section of the vast estate sitting on about one-third of the entire land area named after a federal minister Adeyi.
According to Oladokun, at inception, the plots were given to people of that class who were mostly civil servants and professors at the University of Ibadan and the University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife.
Unlike the next section which was for middle-class professionals and houses built by the government, owners of the crisis-ridden area were allowed to build their houses to taste but on mortgage with terms and conditions.
Due to the social class, several top public servants, university lecturers and other professionals occupied the estate. They include permanent secretaries, UCH doctors, UI professors, architects, engineers and others.
But as time passed by, some occupants failed to meet the terms and conditions of the contract which made the government revoke several plots.
The status of the area grew, attracting more people in the same and higher economic class.
In the last 20 years, however, many of the houses were sold by children of the original owners.
This gradually led to the conversion of houses into commercial buildings, including hotels restaurants and other service firms.
FEC raises committee to review laws on explosives
The Federal Executive Council (FEC) yesterday set up a committee to review explosives control.
Minister of Defence, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, told reporters after the FEC of 2024: “There is strict rule in the storage, movement and ownership of these explosives and the rule is being monitored.
“If there is any case of breakdown, we will find out and deal with it.”
Police to track explosives in Lagos
The Commissioner of Police in Lagos, Adegoke Fayoade, at his maiden press briefing and parade, said the force would be proactive in Lagos.
He said: “We have put measures in place and have looked at places where such an explosion can occur.
“Very soon, you will see us making arrests in such areas to avert such explosion in Lagos.
Alake awaits findings
Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Dele Alake, said the ministry was awaiting a comprehensive report on the causes of the explosion.
Sympathising with the government and people, he said the ministry’s mine officers have also joined the investigations.
He said the report would determine the ministry’s effort to tighten the noose around those acquiring explosives and storing them illegally if found to be the cause.
Commending Governor Makinde for the rapid emergency response, the minister noted with deep concern the preliminary investigation report that the explosion emanated from explosives stored in a residential area in the city.
He urged members of the public to blow the whistle on persons or organisations endangering public health and security.
Illegal mining worries Tinubu
President Bola Tinubu expressed sadness over the devastating explosion, expressing worry that it was caused by the activities of illegal miners.
A statement by his Special Advisee on Media and Publicity, Ajuri Ngilale, reads: “It is worrisome that the cause of the blast is being attributed to the activities of illegal miners.
“Those behind the inexcusable and reckless behaviour that has created the conditions for the sad incident to occur must be fished out and punished.
President Tinubu commiserated with the victims and called on all concerned agencies of government to unravel the circumstances that led to the tragedy with alacrity.
The President directed the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) to work with the Oyo government to offer immediate and comprehensive relief to the victims.
Sanwo-Olu, Abiodun condole with victims
Lagos State Governor, Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu, in a statement by his spokesman Gboyega Akosile, described the incident as disheartening.
He wished the people of Oyo State, particularly the victims, peace, comfort and lots of love at this time of sorrow.
The statement reads: “It is painful and worrisome that the explosion was caused allegedly by illegal miners, who stored explosive devices in one of the houses in the Bodija area of the State.
“Sadly, the carelessness and unlawful activities of the illegal miners have brought sorrow to many families and the state.
“On behalf of the government and people of Lagos State, I sympathise with the immediate families of the victims of the explosion, the government and people of Oyo State.
“I wish Governor Makinde and all the people of Oyo State, particularly the Bodija residents and victims’ families, peace, comfort and lots of love at this time of sorrow.
“I want to assure my brother-Governor that the good people of Lagos State stand with you in this very difficult time.
“We pray that God would comfort the victims’ families and the entire people of Oyo State, particularly the Bodija residents, who were affected by the disaster.”
Ogun State Governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun, described the explosion as a monumental tragedy.
In a condolence message to Makinde, the government and the people of the state, Abiodun regretted that the wanton loss of lives and the destruction of properties were due to neglect and criminality.
The governor praised the swift response of the Oyo State Government, which promptly dispatched first responders to the scene, thereby saving more lives.
He said: “I extend my deepest condolences to the government and the people of Oyo State following the tragic explosion that occurred in Ibadan on Tuesday.
“Our hearts go out to the families who lost their loved ones and those who were injured in this devastating incident.
“We stand in solidarity with the people of Oyo State during this difficult time and offer our full support in the recovery and rebuilding efforts.
“The quick response by the state government, no doubt, saved more lives, and this is commendable.
“May the souls of the departed rest in peace, and may the injured find strength and healing. Together, we will overcome this tragedy and emerge stronger.”
Afenifere seeks end to illegal mining
Pan Yoruba socio-political organisation, Afenifere, called for an end to the activities of illegal miners.
A statement by Organising Secretary, Otunba Kole Omololu condoled with Governor Makinde on the explosion.
It said mining activities ought to be organised under the law and proceeds used to enrich the country rather than individual pockets.
Omolulu stated that illegal mining activities were responsible for insecurity in some parts of the country.
He called on the Federal Government to expose and prosecute illegal miners.
“Governor Makinde has assured that those responsible will be arrested and brought to book.
“We support every step Makinde take to ensure that justice is done for the victims.
“It is reassuring that Governor Makinde is doing his best to assist victims. We call for Federal Government assistance because of the magnitude of the disaster,” the group said.
The former President stated this on Tuesday in Abuja. According to him, there no evidence of wrong-doing against the former apex banker, adding that, Emefiele, who was linked with presidential ambition, did not inform him of such plan.
He said: “When he was linked with campaign for 2023 presidency, I did not ask him, because he told nobody he was getting involved. Otherwise, I would have removed him, and told the nation why.”
Buhari stated this in a seven-page contribution to a book: Working with Buhari Reflections of a Special Adviser, Media and Publicity (2015-2023). The book was written by his former top aide Mr. Femi Adesina.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu was special guest of honour at the event which also had in attendance Hajia Aisha Buhari, former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, and other dignitaries.
Buhari’s appearance was his first public outing since he left office on May 29 last year.
The former president also wrote on Naira redesign policy, which he said was not meant to punish Nigerians but to ensure cleaner elections.
He insisted that the 2023 elections were transparent irrespective of criticisms.
He said President Tinubu was not forced on anybody.
He said it was not difficult for him to remain neutral during the party primaries and the general elections because he wanted a transparent process.
He said his administration conducted a poll that was acceptable, and legally defensible.
He said when the opposition parties lost, they resorted to a call for Interim National Government (ING) to make their supporters happy.
On the existence of a Cabal in his government, he said ex-Governor Nasir el-Rufai and Abdullahi Ganduje were yet to substantiate their allegations.
He said he remains incorruptible because he has not built any new house, and he has always declared his assets
Speaking further on the former CBN governor, the ex-president explained: “I met Emefiele in office when I came, and unless there was firm evidence against him, it would be unfair, and an act of injustice to remove him, acting on hearsay.
“If you punish a man unjustly, it could dog his footsteps throughout life, so if you would punish, you must have evidence. And you should know that yourself wouldn’t be there forever. You would leave one day.
“ I’m very conscious about the morale of people who serve with me. I also expect whoever succeeds me to be fair to me. I have family, friends, who will feel it. I’m very conscious of fairness.
On the Naira redesign policy, Buhari insisted it was necessary to get cleaner elections in 2023.
He said he did not take on the Supreme Court because he had no basis to do so”
He added: “The scarcity of money was not deliberately done to punish Nigerians.
“There is no denying that the Naira redesign policy gave us cleaner elections. It was people who had too much money that had problems with it. When it was said that the new notes were not available, over $260 million was found with one bank chairman. Did I take on the Supreme Court on the issue? No, I could not have.”
“Some APC Governors went to court. I refuse to judge people by my own standard. I am not materialistic, but it will be too much to expect all Nigerians to be the same way. It is not fair to condemn anybody, but it is up to them and their conscience. I want to continue to conduct myself with clear conscience, so that when I go to bed, I sleep off immediately.”
The former President defended the 2023 elections as transparent and legally defensible.
He added: “Nobody interfered with the process. It was so transparent. They talk of voters’ suppression in some areas. We were not a perfect government. People are bound to disagree, and some do it violently.
“ Democracy allows people to express their will, and we did not attempt to control them. People understood the implications of their choices, and we did not force them.
“ My state, Katsina, showed the beauty of the whole system, In the presidential poll, APC lost. But they came back to win the governorship. Maybe they took things for granted earlier because it was my state, and they thought they would win easily. People do not like being taken for granted.
“I have not responded because it is irrelevant, We had our objectives, held the elections, and finished within the time stipulated by the Constitution.
“ I did not expect perfect elections. But we did what was acceptable, and legally defensible,
“We conducted ourselves so transparently, people participated openly, and we had no problem of credibility. I even displayed my ballot openly for people to see that I meant what I said, I do what I say, lawyers may continue talking about the legality of it or not but I will do what is right.”
Buhari gave himself a pass mark on his three-point agenda in office.
He said: “We campaigned basically on Security, Economy, and Anti-Corruption. Have I succeeded after eight years? .
“On security, I will say I have done my best. Go and ask the Governors of Borno and Yobe States the position of their states in 2015, and what is the position now. I will hand over a more stable Nigeria, particularly the North East.
“Economy, we were entirely dependent on petroleum in 2015, now it is no longer so. We have diversified the economy and no longer depend on oil to survive as a nation.”
“On the war against corruption, check with the relevant agencies, how many people have been prosecuted, and the impact it has had on others. Nobody can accuse me of corruption, I have not built any new house, and I have always declared my assets. You can ask the Accountant-General or Attorney-General of the Federation, whether there was even an anonymous letter accusing me of anything.
He debunked allegations of ethnicity and religious bigotry, especially alleged Fulanisation of the polity.
He said: “I do not know what it means (Fulanisation). I was not brought up under Fulani culture, though I look like one. I did not know my father, but he was 100% Fulani, and my mother was 100% Hausa, she brought me up. It is very unfair to talk about any Fulanisation.
“ I cannot interfere with clear conscience. People can make up their minds based on what their reasons are. I hope they will be fair.”
Buhari went memory lane to prove that while he had been denied justice by his fellow Hausa-Fulani judges, a Christian was fair to him.
He said: “Our problem is not ethnicity or religion, it is ourselves. After my third appearance in the Supreme Court, I came out to speak to those who were present then. I told them, that from 2003, I had spent 30 months in court. The President of the Court of Appeal, the first port of call for representation by presidential election complaint, then, was my classmate in secondary school in Katsina,
“We spent six years in the same class, Justice Umaru Abdullahi. The head of my legal team was Chief Mike Ahamba, a Roman Catholic and an Ibo man.
“When the President of the Court decided that we should present our case, my first witness was in the box.
“Ahamba insisted that a letter should be sent to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to present the register of constituencies in some of the states to prove that what they announced was falsehood. It was documented.
“When they gave judgment, another Ibo man, the late Justice Sylvanus Nsofor, asked for the reaction from INEC to the letter sent to them. They just dismissed it. He (Justice Nsofor) then decided to write a minority judgment. That was after 27 months in court.
“We went to the Supreme Court. Who was the Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN)? A Hausa-Fulani like me, from Zaria. The members of the panel went in for about 30 minutes, came back to say they were proceeding on break.
“They went for three months. When they came back, it did not take them 15 minutes, they dismissed us.
“In 2007, who was the CJN? Idris Kutigi. Again, a Muslim from the North. After eight months or so, he dismissed the case.
“In 2011, because I was so persistent, Justice Dahiru Mustapha, a Fulani man from Jigawa, who was the CJN, dismissed my case. I have taken you round this to prove that our problem is not ethnicity or religion. It is ourselves.”
Buhari dismissed the allegations of the existence of a Cabal in the Presidential Villa when he was in office.
He challenged ex-Governors Nasir el-Rufai and Abdullahi Ganduje to provide evidence to back their claims.
“I think that is bloody nonsense. See how we in the APC did our things transparently in the party primary election. Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu was not forced on anybody. If even a Vice President would fail to get the party’s ticket, then it showed how free and fair the process was.
“ Former Imo State Governor, Rochas Okorocha and Pastor Tunde Bakare complained loudly, but they could not prove it was not transparent.
“For me, to remain neutral in the process was not difficult, as I had made people know how I arrived where I was. If it was all about money, I would not get it.”
“If El-Rufai had mentioned the cabal members, I would have taken it up with him, but he didn’t.
“Governor Ganduje of Kano State made his own allegations. Well, they are just governors, I am President. If they had their facts, they should have named names.
“I am not perfect. If they think that they are perfect, let them give the evidence in their respective states.”
Buhari said he retained the late Aisha Alhassan (Mama Taraba) in his cabinet after she declared that she will not vote for him in 2019 to prove that he is tolerant of opposing views.
“Yes, she was my Minister of Women Affairs, and she said publicly that she would not vote me for a second term. And I kept her in the cabinet to prove to Nigerians that I
accept those who agree and disagree with me. That is one of the strongest evidences.
The former President said he will not write a memoir in order not to hurt people.
“One of my fundamental weaknesses is that I do not like to hurt people. There is no way I will write memoir without abusing some people. Even if they are dead, their children and grandchildren are still around. What some people have done to this country is terrible,” he said.
Bolstered by last Friday’s Supreme Court judgment that overturned the dismissal of Governor Caleb Mutfwang by the Court of Appeal, legislators who faced a similar ousting from the intermediate court are optimistic despite the legal constraints, writes ERIC IKHILAE.
The repercussions of the Supreme Court’s decision last Friday on the governorship election dispute in Plateau State are still rippling across the nation. The January 12 ruling nullified the November 19, 2023, judgment of the Court of Appeal, reinstating Governor Caleb Muftwang. Although this resolved the controversy surrounding the rightful governor of the state, the judgment has sparked a renewed contest over claims to several legislative seats in Plateau State. The aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision seems to have reignited the debate surrounding a number of legislative seats in the state.
After the Supreme Court ruling, Plateau lawmakers elected under the banner of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), who had previously had accepted their removal by the Court of Appeal, are now reconsidering their stance. A shift in perspective has emerged among them and their supporters, as they entertain the prospect of a favourable turn of events. This shift is noticeable in the warning issued by Gabriel Dewan, the Speaker of the Plateau State House of Assembly, who expressed reluctance to acknowledge the All Progressives Congress (APC) legislators benefiting from the Court of Appeal’s rulings.
Dewan said the state assembly has only eight lawmakers that he recognises, arguing that the Friday judgement by the Supreme Court has reversed the position of the Court of Appeal. He said: “As it stands now, only eight lawmakers are recognised as members of the state assembly.” The Speaker vowed that the 16 APC lawmakers who were declared winners by the Court of Appeal would not be recognised for now pending the interpretation of the Supreme Court judgement.
Since the Friday verdict, the PDP has vowed to reclaim the seats it lost to the Court of Appeal judgments; while the APC is contending that the damage was irreversible. Part of the steps being considered by the PDP include returning to the intermediate court to seek review and approaching the National Judicial Council (NJC) with a strongly-worded petition. The party’s Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Ibrahim Abdullahi, was quoted to have said the PDP resolved to petition relevant institutions in the federal judiciary to review the Court of Appeal’s decisions regarding affected Plateau lawmakers from Plateau State.
Abdullahi said, “Certainly, yes, we have already commenced efforts in that regard. This is because what the Supreme Court justices did was an indictment on the Justices of the Court of Appeal. We have always maintained that line of argument. We are going to seek redress for the members of parliament concerned. Senate, House of Representatives and House of Assembly. The redress will focus on their respective offices.”
In a counter posture, the APC has insisted that the Supreme Court judgement has not changed the status of its members, who are beneficiaries of the decisions of the Court of Appeal. Its spokesman in Plateau State, Sylvanus Namang was reported to have said: “Our members are comfortable as they remain authentic members (of the national and state assemblies).” Namang argued that since the Court of Appeal is the final court on legislative election litigation, the matter cannot proceed beyond that level.
The dispute and casualties
The Court of Appeal primarily based its decisions on the contention that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) lacked a legitimate structure in Plateau State, which could produce valid candidates. The appellate court asserted that the Plateau PDP’s non-compliance with a directive from the state’s High Court, instructing it to conduct new ward, local government and state congresses to establish the party’s state executive, rendered it incapable of having a valid executive. Consequently, the court argued that the party had no valid executive to organise primaries for the nomination of candidates in the last election.
In all, the Appeal Court’s decision affected two PDP senators, three House of Representatives members and 11 members of the State Assembly. Some of the affected lawmakers, including Ms. Beni Lar, Joe Philip Gwom and Bala N Fwanje have expressed their determination to reclaim their seats. Lar, who lost her Langtang North/Langtang South seat in the House of Representatives, has argued that since their case is a novel one, they would do everything possible to reclaim their mandates.
She said: “We don’t know what the National Judicial Council (NJC) will say yet because this kind of thing has never happened before. There is no precedence to our case, but there is no harm in trying. The Supreme Court verdict is the first of its kind in Nigeria and has restored hope, restored confidence in the judiciary. They have upheld the rule of law. The Appeal Court robbed us of our victory. It’s a learning experience. The Appeal Court erroneously robbed us of the people’s mandate. It is a national disaster for an arm of the judiciary to rob 24 lawmakers of their mandates. It is gross abuse of power to do so. It should have never happened at all. It means 24 constituencies have been handed over to illegal occupants,” Lar said.
Gwom lost the Barkin Ladi constituency seat in the state Assembly. He said: “I am a victim of the Court of Appeal judgement. But as far as I am concerned, I am going back to the House of Assembly, because the pronouncement of the Supreme Court supersedes that of Court of Appeal. Not only me but all of us from the state assembly and national assembly. We are going back to our seats because the Supreme Court judgement supersedes that of the Appeal Court. That was injustice meted to us by the Court of Appeal.
“I believe that in the next few days you will see action. I don’t need to talk too much. All I know is that the Supreme Court said APC should not have taken PDP to court over an issue that was internal affairs of PDP. It then means that what the Court of Appeal did was an illegality against PDP. We are going back to take our seats as law makers based on the mandate given to us by our constituencies.”
On his part, Fwanje, who lost his Mangu South state constituency seat, said: “To God be the glory, the Supreme Court has given us victory. Our victory has been restored. The judgement means that my seat is not lost. The apex court has confirmed to us that the Court of Appeal was not supposed to entertain the case. It then means there was no case against us at all. In other words, what the Court of Appeal did was to defend an interest, not the law. But now the apex court has come out with the true position of the law. It means our case has to be reviewed and we are coming back strongly to claim our mandate
“Plateau is going to set a precedent for the growth of democracy in this case. That illegality done to us by the Court of Appeal cannot stand because there will be another election in 2027. Our cases and that of the governor are similar; hence our own has to be reviewed accordingly because that of the governor has been decided. So I can assure you the NJC will definitely review our cases to correct the injustice,” Fwanje said.
Any remedy in the eye of the law?
Lawyers, including Mike Ozekhome (SAN), John Baiyeshea (SAN), Joseph Nwobike (SAN), Akinlolu Kehinde (SAN) and Otunba Tunde Falola are of the view that the deed has been done and that there are no remedies for the sacked lawmakers in the eye of the law. They noted that since the Electoral Act makes the Court of Appeal the last court in legislative election litigation, it was impossible to reverse the decisions of the Court of Appeal. Others are also of the view that since the 180 days provided for the hearing of election petition and the 60 days for appeal have since lapsed, there was little the affected legislators could do to reverse their fortune.
Baiyeshea said: “In the case of the National Assembly members, appeal terminates at the Court of Appeal; so the injustice to them is permanent and irreversible. There is no remedy for them now for this monumental travesty of justice to them. It is quite sad that, before our very eyes, the representatives the people of Plateau State, voted for, have been replaced by those ‘selected’ by the Court of Appeal. Democracy has been obliterated, basterdised and the people shortchanged. That’s the tragedy of a nation like Nigeria that never gets anything right,” Baiyeshea said.
Nwobike also noted that there was nothing the affected legislators could do in view of the provision of the law that made the Court of Appeal the final court in legislative disputes. The senior lawyer said: “I must start by commending the Supreme Court of Nigeria for always using the powers vested in it by the Constitution to defend the people’s choices whenever the occasion arises. The judgements delivered on Friday are a reflection of the cardinal role the Judiciary plays in deepening democracy in Nigeria.
“Regarding the options open to those who lost their legislative seats on account of the judgments of the Court of Appeal, sitting in Jos, I think that it must be recognised that the Court of Appeal is the final court for the determination of that level of electoral disputes in Nigeria. There are no clear legal or constitutional basis for them to seek for judicial review of those judgements in any manner that will not create a bad precedent in our jurisprudence. However, it is left for the lawyers to the persons affected to deeply consider the issues and the extent to which the equitable rule of ibi jus ibi remedium can be of any material help.
“Recall also that similar applications that were made to the Supreme Court recently was met with heavy cost against the counsel who filed the application on behalf of the parties. I will, therefore, advise that the matter should be treated as closed so as not to create confusion in the electoral jurisprudence with respect to the finality granted to the Court of Appeal by the Constitution,” Nwobike said.
On his part, Falola noted that by the provision of Section 246(1) of the Constitution, the Court of Appeal currently exercises the final jurisdiction on the decision of the election tribunal in respect of all legislative elections cases be it National Assembly or State Houses of Assembly. He added: “What that means is that once a candidate, who participates in Senatorial, House of Representatives or State House of Assembly elections and loses the election, he petitions the election tribunal.
“And when he loses the petition, his final destination, in terms of appealing against the tribunal’s decisions, ends at the Court of Appeal, being the final court. At that juncture, the only option open to him is to abide by the outcome of the decision of the Court of Appeal. If he loses the appeal, there is really nothing he can do than to wait for another election period, as no further right of appeal exists,” Falola said.
Criticisms of Court of Appeal
Baiyeshea, who expressed disappointment in how the Court of Appeal handled the case, said it was very sad that the appellate court justices chose to replace elected representatives with their selected ones. He said: “The judgment of the Court of Appeal in respect of National Assembly members that removed in Plateau State is quite unfortunate. This is one of the ugly scenarios in our Nigerian system and one of the irreversible errors in our legal/administration of justice.
“It is obvious now that, with the judgment of the Supreme Court yesterday affirming the election of the Governor of that state (who was removed by the Court of Appeal for the same reasons that the National Assembly members were removed), that the Court of Appeal’s judgment is a complete travesty of justice to those the National Assembly members. The governor was lucky that, by our present laws, appeal in governorship matters terminates at the Supreme Court; so he had his case reviewed by Justices of that court. Happily the unjust judgment of the Court of Appeal against him was set aside.”
Kehinde said what the Court of Appeal Justices did amounted to judicial rascality. He added: “I will encourage, especially the intermediate court – the Court of Appeal – to know that it has no choice, once a position has been laid down by the Supreme Court, it is judicial rascality to depart from it. This was what happened, with respect, in some of these states like Plateau, Kano and a number of other states. This was what they did, with respect, I am not castigating the whole bench of the Court of Appeal, but those involved got themselves involved in judicial rascality.
“What is good is good, and what is bad is bad. What they did has no basis in law. The Supreme Court has condemned it; I am not the one condemning it. And let them also have a rethink that they owe it to this country to ensure the survival of this democracy. This is a responsibility that we all owe to this country,” Kehinde said.
How to avert recurrence
Law experts suggested amendments to the Constitution and other relevant laws to allow National Assembly election cases terminate at the Supreme Court. Ozekhome noted that, in view of what happened in the Plateau case, he was reviewing his earlier stance that not all election cases should terminate at the Supreme Court. He said, “I was one of those who felt like the Supreme Court should not be bothered with too many of these; the House of Assembly, House of Representatives, and Senate (cases) could end at the appeal level, but from what we have seen particularly in the Plateau scenario, there was a great miscarriage of justice.
“The Supreme Court spared no words; they used legal and judicial koboko (cane) to flog the Court of Appeal for what they termed miscarriage of justice; perverse judgments. In many of the cases, particularly the Plateau State, two senators’ positions were reversed, three House of Representatives were reversed, and 11 House of Assembly were reversed. If all these cases had gone to the Supreme Court, all of them would have their seats retained. On what grounds were they reversed? The Court of Appeal surprisingly was saying the PDP had no structure in Plateau state. When did PDP structure, membership of a political party, nomination, congresses, and primaries become part and parcel of matters that the court can have jurisdiction?” he said.
Ozekhome added that “the Supreme Court said not even the election tribunal has jurisdiction, let alone the court of appeal. And they voided the decision of the governorship. They would also have voided the decision on the two senatorial candidates, three Houses of Representatives, and the 11 House of Assembly. Injustice has been done to them. What is the remedy now? That is why I am going to review my stance with all respect, humility as a constitutional lawyer, to say that, yes, these cases should go to the Supreme Court as a final court of the land. We saw grave injustice; people voted for by the electorates were removed by the Court of Appeal, which has no jurisdiction over the matter. I am sad about it and it should never happen again,” he said.
Baiyeshea urged relevant stakeholders to work on ways of altering existing laws, particularly the Constitution to prevent such unfortunate occurrence. He said: “I hope the National Assembly and other stakeholders in law making will do something to amend the Constitution and other laws to remedy this anomaly against the future because we cannot and must not continue like this. Our legal system should not, at our present state of development, present citizens with such helpless situation where there is no remedy for such a brutal wrong done to its citizens. This is why those who have the privilege of presiding over the affairs of others to determine their fate should be very careful not to abuse such privilege,” Baiyeshea said.
Kehinde advocated punishment for erring judicial officers involved in such brazen act of abuse of judicial powers. He noted that if it was in other clime, like the United Kingdom, the justices involved would have been penalised for deliberately ignoring earlier decisions of the Supreme Court on the issues raised in the Plateau cases. Kehinde urged lawyers, particularly the Senior Advocates, to realise that it is not every case that must be taken to court. “We have to be sincere to our clients and tell them the whole truth that a particular case will not fly,” he said, adding that lawyers should avoid cases that could ridicule them and subject the whole system of justice to disrepute.
According to Falola, “to address the several complaints against the decisions of the Court of Appeal in respect of the appeals in legislative matters in Plateau State, the option open to our legislature is to amend the Constitution and make the Supreme Court final court in appeals in legislative matters. Doing so will give the Supreme Court the opportunity to address the perceived perverseness of most of the decisions of the appellate court in deserving cases,” Falola said.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s impending banking system recapitalisation is a critical step towards positioning the financial sector for a $1 trillion economy. While excitement surrounding the potential benefits is palpable, questions and concerns from depositors are inevitable. In this analysis by Assistant Editor NDUKA CHIEJINA addresses the prospects and challenges of this significant move
Increased capital translates to greater lending capacity, enabling banks to finance larger projects, support business growth and fuel economic diversification. This can propel Nigeria towards its $1 trillion GDP target, creating more jobs and stimulating overall growth. Higher capital buffers enhance a bank’s ability to absorb losses from unexpected events, like loan defaults or financial market shocks. This fosters greater stability and resilience, safeguarding depositors’ funds and protecting the wider financial system.
Stronger banks with robust capital bases can compete more effectively on the international stage, attracting foreign investment and facilitating cross-border trade. This boosts Nigeria’s integration into the global economy and opens doors to new opportunities. Adequate capital paves the way for investment in technology infrastructure, driving innovation in financial services. This can lead to more efficient payment systems, improved access to financial products, and personalized banking experiences for customers.
Challenges to consider
The specific details of the recapitalisation exercise, including capital adequacy ratios and timelines, are yet to be announced. This uncertainty can create unease amongst depositors and investors, potentially impacting market confidence. Some banks might struggle to meet the new capital requirements, leading to potential mergers and acquisitions. While consolidation can strengthen the system, it can also raise concerns about job losses and disruptions for customers.
The recapitalisation exercise itself might entail operational adjustments within banks, potentially leading to temporary service disruptions. However, these should be short-lived and outweighed by the long-term benefits. Increased lending rates might accompany higher capital requirements, potentially affecting access to credit for businesses and individuals. The CBN and banks will need to find ways to mitigate this impact and ensure continued access to finance for key sectors.
Loan defaulters in mergers and acquisitions
Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are indeed likely in the upcoming recapitalisation. How loan defaulters are handled during such consolidations depends on several factors, but generally, the following scenarios are possible. During the M&A process, the acquiring bank conducts thorough due diligence on the target bank’s loan portfolio, including identifying and assessing loan defaults. This evaluation helps determine the potential risks and liabilities associated with absorbing the target bank’s defaulters.
The acquiring bank might increase its loan loss provisions to account for the expected impact of existing defaults. In some cases, particularly for severely delinquent loans, write-offs may be necessary to clean up the books. The acquiring bank may have different debt collection strategies compared to the acquired bank. They might employ more aggressive or innovative methods to recover outstanding loans, potentially leading to improved repayment rates. In extreme cases, legal action might be pursued against chronic defaulters. However, this can be a lengthy and costly process and is often a last resort. Ultimately, the approach to handling loan defaulters in M&As will depend on the specific circumstances, the loan agreements, and the legal framework. To protect depositor interests, the CBN will closely monitor the process and ensure ethical and responsible practices are followed.
Options for meeting recapitalisation targets
Banks have several options to meet the capital adequacy ratios that the CBN will set. Banks can organically generate capital through profitable operations, retaining earnings, and optimising their balance sheets. This includes improving lending activities, reducing costs, and managing risks effectively. They can raise fresh capital by issuing new shares, attracting investments from existing or new shareholders. This can dilute existing ownership but inject needed capital.
In addition, banks can issue bonds or other debt instruments to borrow money from investors. This option raises the debt-to-equity ratio but provides immediate access to capital. As mentioned earlier, M&As can be a way for struggling banks to access the capital and resources of larger institutions. This can offer economies of scale and synergy but might involve job losses and service disruptions. Banks can diversify their assets to include less risky investments that generate stable income, increasing their overall capital base. The choice of approach will depend on the bank’s individual circumstances, risk appetite, and future growth plans. The CBN will likely provide regulatory guidance and encourage responsible capital raising strategies that maintain financial stability and transparency.
Safeguarding deposits during the recapitalisation
The CBN has historically ensured the safety of deposits during previous recapitalisation exercises. Depositors can expect continued protection of their funds through the Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) insurance scheme. The CBN will closely monitor the recapitalization process and intervene if necessary to protect depositors’ interests. Strict regulations and transparency measures will be implemented to ensure responsible practices throughout the exercise. Before undertaking any significant financial transactions, depositors can research the capital adequacy ratios and financial health of their banks. This information is readily available on the CBN website and various financial publications. Banks should proactively communicate with their customers about the recapitalisation process, clearly explaining potential impacts and addressing concerns. Transparency and timely updates can foster trust and reassure depositors.
Innovative products for deposit mobilisation and financial inclusion
Governor Olayemi Cardoso’s call for innovative banking products to attract depositors and enhance financial inclusion is timely and crucial. Some of the potential implications and considerations include: New products tailored to specific needs, like mobile banking and micro-insurance, can attract unbanked populations and foster financial inclusion. Innovation can drive competition, leading to better interest rates, lower fees, and more personalised services for existing and new customers. Introducing innovative products can necessitate financial literacy campaigns to educate customers about their features and benefits. The CBN may need to adapt its regulatory framework to accommodate new technologies and product types while ensuring consumer protection and financial stability. Implementing innovative products might require significant investment in technological infrastructure and cybersecurity measures. Building trust in new products, especially among unbanked communities, requires effective communication and transparency. Data security and privacy concerns must be addressed to ensure responsible use of customer information in innovative products.
Lessons from previous recapitalisation and future actions
The past experience with some Initial Public Offers (IPOs) during the previous recapitalisation offers valuable lessons for the future. Initial public offerings can be susceptible to market volatility, impacting share prices and potentially leading to losses for investors. Carefully assessing the long-term viability and future prospects of acquired banks is crucial to avoid subsequent decline in share value. Banks should explore diverse capital-raising options beyond solely relying on IPOs to mitigate risks and ensure stability.
Regulatory bodies and investors need to conduct thorough due diligence on target banks before any acquisitions or mergers. The CBN could consider incentivising long-term investments in smaller banks to offer them greater stability and protect investor interests. Banks should prioritise strong fundamentals, robust governance, and sustainable profitability to build investor confidence and long-term share value. By learning from past experiences and taking preventive measures, the upcoming recapitalization can be navigated in a way that protects investors, promotes financial inclusion, and fosters a vibrant and innovative banking sector in Nigeria.
Assurances for bank depositors during recapitalisation can vary depending on several factors. If the bank raises its capital privately, without government intervention, there may be fewer formal assurances for depositors. However, a successful private recapitalisation generally indicates the bank’s financial health and stability, indirectly assuring depositors. During financial crises, governments may inject capital into banks to prevent failure. This often comes with explicit deposit insurance guarantees, protecting depositors’ funds up to a specific limit. Many countries have established deposit insurance schemes, which guarantee repayment of deposits up to a certain amount in case of a bank failure. These schemes play a crucial role in assuring depositors during recapitalisation. Banking regulatory bodies typically monitor recapitalization processes and ensure banks comply with minimum capital requirements. This helps maintain financial stability and protects depositors.
Clear and regular communication from the bank and regulators during recapitalisation is essential. This helps depositors understand the process, address their concerns, and maintain confidence in the banking system. In most cases, banks remain operational during recapitalisation, allowing depositors to access their funds as usual. In the event of a bank failure, deposit insurance schemes typically cover eligible deposits, minimising losses for depositors. Successful recapitalisation strengthens the bank’s financial position, enhancing its long-term stability and reducing the risk of future failures.
However, it’s important to note that deposit insurance coverage has limits, and not all types of deposits are always covered; government intervention and bailouts come with costs, potentially impacting taxpayers and the broader economy and during periods of financial turmoil, even insured deposits may not be immediately accessible. Therefore, it’s essential for depositors to stay informed about their bank’s financial health, the government’s deposit insurance scheme, and the regulatory environment when assessing their level of security during recapitalisation.
Speaking to The Nation on the planned recapitalisation, Dr. Wahab Balogun of Ambosit Capital Managers stated that “given the lack of specifics surrounding the CBN’s planned banking system recapitalization in 2024, forming a definitive opinion is challenging. However, based on what we know, delaying the announcement of criteria and timeline could indicate the CBN’s openness to feedback from stakeholders, including banks, industry experts, and the public. This could lead to a more inclusive and effective recapitalisation plan.”
He noted further that “taking time to carefully consider the details of the recapitalization suggests a commitment to doing it right. This could ultimately lead to a more successful and sustainable outcome for the banking system. In addition, with the uncertain global economic outlook, delaying the implementation might allow the CBN to adapt the recapitalization plan to respond to unforeseen circumstances. This flexibility could be beneficial in mitigating potential risks.”
On the flip side, the money market expert cautioned that “the ambiguity surrounding the recapitalisation could create uncertainty and anxiety among banks and other stakeholders. This could negatively impact investment and lending decisions, hampering economic activity. He added that “without a clear timeline and criteria, the recapitalization plan might lose momentum and fail to achieve its desired outcomes. This could delay the potential benefits of a stronger banking system for the $1 trillion economy goal. If the recapitalisation is ultimately delayed or scaled back, it could miss a window of opportunity to address potential vulnerabilities in the banking system and strengthen its ability to support economic growth. Overall, the lack of details around the CBN’s recapitalization plan creates a mixed picture. While it could indicate a deliberate and inclusive approach, it also raises concerns about transparency and potential delay.”
On his part, Mr Gbolade Idakolo, Managing Director/CEO SD&D Capital Management Limited, believes “the new recapitalisation process of the banking sector is desirable but it must not over heat the system and instead of strengthening the banking system leads to panic. The recapitalisation should be done along the present categorization of banks as International, National and Regional. The guidelines should also clearly state that smaller banks operating regional and national banking licenses should not be muscled out of existence.”
He noted that “the big banks already in the stock exchange have various opportunities to shore up capital but those outside the stock exchange will have to work harder to convince private investors. The regulators can only calm the fears of depositors if the recapitalisation timelines are realistic. The CBN must also ensure that banks clearly state the source of funds for recapitalisation. The success of the process will definitely expand the economy and aid the banking system to be involved in more big ticket transactions both locally and internationally. This could also move the economy towards the anticipated trillion dollar economy project by the government,” he argued.
While the upcoming recapitalisation presents challenges, the potential benefits for Nigeria’s banking system and broader economy are significant. By fostering a stronger, more competitive financial sector, this move can pave the way for sustainable economic growth and improved living standards. For depositors, understanding the rationale behind the recapitalisation, being aware of safeguards in place, and maintaining clear communication with their banks can help assuage concerns and ensure a smooth transition during this crucial period.
It takes no extraordinary augury to discern that the road ahead for Nigeria in 2024 is bound to be rough but then, in the life of a nation or individuals, old sins and past years of wrongful living do not foreclose the possibilities of redemption. Across the country today, with countless groups and individuals wearing apathy, skepticism, distrust of leadership and indifference to government policies like a misperceived badge of honour, there is a really a herculean task ahead towards mass mobilisation for effecting positive change along various dimensions.
As Nigeria embarks on the journey of 2024, the nation faces a multitude of entrenched issues posing significant hurdles to progress, stability, and socio-economic development. These challenges span political, economic, security, and social dimensions, demanding urgent attention and strategic solutions from policymakers, leaders, and stakeholders.
The lingering issue of insecurity; terrorism which has been a real problem since 2009, along with banditry have grown into cross-border threats fostered by illegal mining, expanded flow of illicit arms, incessant highway abductions, and other factors.
Insurgency by groups like Boko Haram, ethnic clashes and kidnapping continue to threaten peace and stability while effectively hindering development.
Gory incidents like the well-coordinated invasion of about 20 communities in Plateau State over a period of two days without being thwarted by the security agencies must definitely not re-occur in 2024.
The Tinubu administration is allocating more budgetary resources to these but the implementation of a comprehensive security strategy combining military efforts with community engagement and socio-economic development is necessary to address underlying grievances and root causes of conflicts.
More effective policing and military operations underpinned by good intelligence-gathering along with relevant technology for surveillance will count a lot, especially as many continue to wonder why current loads of biometric data appear incapable of leading to more arrests of criminals or the prompt discovery of looted government funds.
Secondly, Nigeria’s political challenges are exacerbated by an elite class that sees the desperate pursuit of politics and high office as an express route towards wealth accumulation but the country can address this with improved concerns for electoral integrity in 2024.
As far as millions of Nigerians are concerned, governance inefficiencies, corruption, and ineffective leadership structures hinder progress; strengthening institutions, promoting good governance, and holding leaders accountable are imperative for effective public service delivery and fostering citizens’ confidence in the government.
Nigeria’s electoral processes often face allegations of irregularities, manipulation, and inadequate transparency. In the elections of 2024, enhancing the integrity of elections is crucial for ensuring a fair democratic process and maintaining public trust in the government.
Much is expected of government, the umpire and all stakeholders as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) begins with the conduct of rerun elections in 34 federal and state constituencies, made up of one in the Senate, 11 federal constituencies, and 22 state constituencies. Thereafter, the focus will be on two gubernatorial contests that are anticipated to draw the nation’s interest; the forthcoming Edo and Ondo governorship elections, scheduled for September 21st and November 16th respectively, are expected to be intense.
One thing expected to dominate discussion this year is Nigeria’s economic struggles as government and citizens contend with challenges implanted through past years of mismanagement. For instance, the economy heavily relies on oil revenues, exposing it to the volatility of global prices; thus, diversifying the economy by investing in non-oil sectors is critical to reduce dependency and ensure sustainable growth. Current figures from the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) reflect a positive trend that requires being sustained.
More than before, addressing fiscal deficits, stimulating job creation, and implementing inclusive economic policies are paramount in 2024; the high unemployment rate, particularly among youth, demands urgent interventions through skill development programs and investment in sectors that create jobs.
In 2024, there’s concern regarding an imminent hike in petrol prices as this may significantly impact transportation and various businesses. Since the removal of subsidies by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in May 2023, fuel prices have surged, leading to a worsening cost-of-living crisis nationwide.
Despite denials by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) of an impending price increase, reports indicate prices as high as N700/litre in some regions, prompting fears and an abrupt halt in fuel imports by independent marketers due to unprofitability. Conflicting statements from IPMAN and NNPCL regarding subsidies further exacerbate uncertainties around petrol but much hope is being spurred about the refinery in Port Harcourt as well as the Dangote refinery that are calibrating to effectively commence operations this year. Apart from these, the Nigeria Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB) recently disclosed that while one modular refinery started production of over 170 million litres or about 3,000 trucks of petroleum products last year, three other modular facilities are nearing completion. These are Azikel Refinery with support from AFREXIM bank, Dupont Refinery in Edo State and the jetty and FAT for the Inside Battery Limit (ISBL) of the Atlantic Refinery modular refinery.
For 2024, perpetual vehement critics see no hope in the Federal Government’s N28.77 trillion ($34 billion) budget, but the more knowledgeable leadership of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) asserts that there is good basis for optimism about President Tinubu’s aspirations for the manufacturing sector and the actualization of a $1 trillion economy.
In MAN’s recommendations to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), it urges intensified collaboration with fiscal authorities, forex access for vital industrial inputs not locally available, and the provision of long-term, single-digit interest loans to fast-track economic growth. It expects tough challenges during the early parts of 2024 but forecasts a potential recovery in the latter part of the year, contingent on policy stimulus and proactive measures to boost domestic growth and exports.
This year, the pursuit of developmental imperatives, even beyond the ambit of the year’s N28.7 trillion budget becomes more compelling. Nigeria grapples with inadequate infrastructure, limited access to quality healthcare, education, and basic amenities but bridging these infrastructure and basic services gaps require substantial investments in infrastructure development, healthcare, education, and rural development initiatives. Furthermore, long-existing disparities between rural and urban areas exacerbate socio-economic inequalities; these necessitate increased consciousness and efforts towards ensuring equitable development and improving living standards in rural communities in the interest of overall national development and social cohesion.
In his New Year Address on January 1, 2024, Tinubu said: “The task of building a better nation and making sure we have a Nigeria society that cares for all her citizens is the reason I ran to become your President. It was the core of my Renewed Hope campaign message on the basis of which you voted me as President.”
This year, citizens look forward to seeing this pragmatically reflected in ongoing governance reforms and accountability. Corruption remains a significant impediment to progress; strengthening anti-corruption institutions, enforcing accountability mechanisms, and promoting transparency in governance are essential for curbing corruption and fostering public trust in government institutions.
In 2024, addressing these challenges requires concerted efforts from policymakers, leaders, and citizens alike. Strategic interventions in electoral reforms, economic diversification, comprehensive security strategies, inclusive development initiatives, and governance reforms are imperative.
Collaboration among government entities, civil society organizations, the private sector, and international partners is essential for implementing effective policies and initiatives. Ensuring political will, commitment to reforms, and inclusive decision-making processes are crucial elements in overcoming these challenges and steering Nigeria towards stability, progress, and sustainable development.
“May your road be rough” is the title of an essay written by late Tai Solarin, an educationist, social critic, and visionary reformer; the phrase is metaphorical and suggests that a rough road is an onerous means of achieving arduous set goals – it is not a curse, but a wish for a challenging year ahead.
For gold to be gold, it must have passed through the furnace; there is still basis for the optimism of late American editor, publisher and businessman that ‘We may pass through the fiery furnace, we may pass through deep waters, but we shall not be consumed nor overwhelmed; we shall emerge from these trials and difficulties better and purer.”
As Nigeria grapples with these complex challenges in 2024, proactive leadership, coupled with sound policies and strategic planning, will be instrumental in driving transformative change and paving the way for a more prosperous and inclusive future for the nation.
Welcome to 2024. Despite the myriad challenges in the economic and political space, many are indeed hopeful and they are determined to make a mark in their chosen fields. The women are ready to be game changers, exploring the gains from the previous year and ready to set the pace for others to follow. YETUNDE OLADEINDE takes a look at the different sectors unveiling women to watch, amazons set to make giant strides this year.
BANKING
Women manage three of the top 10 banks in Nigeria today. Judging by the financial year ended 2023, the banks including GTB, Fidelity Bank, and FCMB, are being managed by these women namely: Miriam Olusanya, MD/CEO of GTB, Yemisi Edun, MD/CEO, FCMB, Nneka Onyeali-Ikpe, MD/CEO, Fidelity Bank Plc, are doing well and ranked amongst the top tier banks.
Specifically, GTB assets are valued at $14.401m, while Fidelity Bank is $8.911m and FCMB at $6.664m respectively
GOVERNMENT
Nigeria’s First Lady, Mrs Oluremi Tinubu
Nigeria’s First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu is committed to empowering women, youths, and the elderly. Apart from empowerment, she has also shown interest in the Nation’s Health delivery process. During the outgoing week, she admonished well-meaning Nigerians to join forces with the government and adopt hospitals and wards to improve the sector. Her foundation, Renewed Hope Initiative (RHI) is working in collaboration with UNICEF to ensure that all births in Nigeria are registered.
MINISTER OF ARTS
Hannatu Musa Musawa, Minister of Art, Culture and Creative Economy
The Minister is geared towards building another national theatre in Abuja. Following the 1988 national cultural policy, she also wants to replicate this in the 6 geopolitical zones of Nigeria. That was why the budget was increased from 1.9 billion to 9.1 billion by the national assembly when she defended her budget.
POLITICS
On the political scene, one woman to look out for is Loretta Ogboro Okoro, a female aspirant who has declared her intention to contest in the 2024 Edo Governorship race.
ARTS/ LITERATURE
Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie
The world is waiting to hear her garner more literary awards
At this relatively young she has been able to capture attention to herself. More references are being made to her creative acumen and some literary pundits have stated that she will make the least for the Nobel or other awards like Booker and others. Her attention these days focuses more on feminine writings as she straightens the argument for women to stand together in agitating for their rights…more literature on women is expected therefore to emanate from her in 2024.
FASHION AND TEXTILE
Lanre Da Silva Ajayi (LDA)
Lanre Da Silva Ajayi a Nigerian fashion designer based in Lagos is a designer to watch. She made the green classy gown worn by Tiwa Savage at the Coronation of King Charles In the UK last year. Launched in 2005, her eponymous label includes couture, ready-to-wear, jewelry, and hairpieces. Da Silva’s collections often incorporate metallic fabrics, lace, and African patterns, while referencing the 1940s or 1800s.
Toyin Ajoke Muyinat Lawani-Adebayo, popularly known as Toyin Lawani, is a Nigerian celebrity, fashion designer, author, philanthropist, and serial entrepreneur. She is the CEO of Tiannahs Place Empire, a group compromising 33 businesses.
Nike Okundaye
Nike Okundaye will continue to expand the frontiers of the visual and creative industry. She keeps building private art galleries with additional ones in Abuja and environs
She has promised to build more as time goes on. At the last count, she has ten such galleries in different parts of Nigeria, including Ogidi her village in Kogi state.
Ronke Ademiluyi Ogunwusi is a fashion entrepreneur and wife of the Ooni of Ife, Enitan Ogunwusi. She is a lawyer and the Founder of Africa Fashion Week London and Africa Fashion Week Nigeria. Her passion for the adire fabric, projecting upcoming designers has made her events grow to become one of the largest and most prestigious fashion weeks. In the past 12 years, she has hosted 8 catwalk events and contributed expertise to at least 10 more events produced by third parties such as the Mayor of London’s Black History Month Celebrations. She also showcased over 800 emerging designers and exhibitors from Africa, Europe, and America.
BUSINESS
Mrs Folorunsho Alakija
Nigerian businesswoman, philanthropist, and founder of Flourish Africa, Mrs. Folorunso Alakija is a woman to watch in the business sector.
To support female entrepreneurs in Africa she launched a N1 billion fund
Flourish Africa is a female empowerment platform designed to help women achieve their full potential. It is a place for both female millennials and adults to access information and the right networks that will enable them to grow in their chosen careers and businesses while prioritizing health and wellness. The initiative focuses on supporting the entrepreneurial activities of at least 2500 female-owned businesses through funding and structured training over 5 years.
Mo. Abudu
M. O. Abudu. She keeps producing some of the most amazing films Nigerians and the world have ever seen. She takes Nigerian stories to the best and most valued cinemas all over the world. Every story that matters gives more impetus to gather the best hands as actors and actresses. Now with her international appointment, it is clear she is made to go places. Indeed 2024 is her year as she is ready to add more glamour to the business of filmmaking and translating some vital books into production. She is outstanding in the world of art. Check her out in 2024
SPORTS
Asisat Oshoala
Asisat Oshoala who was recognised as Women’s African Player of the Year for 2023 by the Confederation of African Football (CAF) at a gala in Marrakech, Morocco has great potential this year.
Tobi Amusan
Oluwatobiloba Ayomide “Tobi” Amusan
A Nigerian track and field athlete who specialises in the100 meters hurdles and also competes as a sprinter is a woman to watch in 2024. Amusan is the current world record holder in the 100 meters hurdles with a time of 12.12 seconds which she set at the 2022 women’s 100-meter hurdles semi-final in Eugene Oregon.
She is the current Commonwealth and African champion in the 100 m hurdles, as well as the meet record holder in those two competitions.
Rasheedat Ajibade
Rasheedat Busayo Ajibade is a Nigerian professional footballer who plays as a forward for Spanish Liga F club Atlético Madrid and the Nigeria women’s national team.
AGRICULTURE
Yemisi Iranloye
Yemisi Iranloye established Psaltry International Limited in the rural area of Ado-Awaye, Oyo state, Nigeria, to promote the cultivation of cassava for industrial purposes. The company produces food-grade starch and high-quality cassava flour, purchased from local smallholder farmers. Yemisi’s company prioritizes delivering high-quality products, and attracting customers like Nestle, Unilever, and Nigerian Breweries among others. Despite challenges like lack of electricity and water scarcity, Psaltry International Limited has achieved an annual income of $12 million and works with over 5,000 farmers. They specialize in cassava production and processing, producing over 10,000 tonnes of starches annually.
The Nigerian music industry, in 2023, witnessed a remarkable year and many creatives count their blessings. From music to movies, comedy and reality shows, it was a bumper year. 2024 is here and feelers hints that some celebrities are already pulling strings for what would be a great year for them. The NATION’s ADENIYI ADEWOYIN and ASSISTANT ENTERTAINMENT EDITOR GBENGA BADA look into artists, actors and reality shows that are expected to make news and keep the show on in 2024.
Wizkid
Ayodeji Balogun aka Wizkid had a good run in 2023 and the 33-year-old singer started 2024 on a high note even before the end of 2023. In December 2023, barely 10 days to a New Year, Wizkid released a fresh EP entitled, ‘Soundman 2 (S2).’ Since the release, the Elongated Play has been setting records, hence, hinting on many more records to break in 2024. The EP set a record for the highest first day streams on the Spotify daily chart for Nigeria. ‘IDK’, the fourth song off the EP, on which he featured Zlatan, also held the record for the highest first full day filtered streams on the Spotify Daily Chart for Nigeria, with over 600,000 streams.
Davido
Just like Wizkid, David Adeleke aka Davido will make so much buzz in 2024 considering all he has in plan with his team. Following his three nominations in three different categories of the 2024 Grammys, it is without doubt that Davido is making a buzz in the year. While fervently praying for a win or more at the Grammys scheduled for February 2024, Davido is currently working on a new project. Sources close to Davido also disclosed that he has promised to give more time to his wife and mother of twins, Chioma.
CJ Fiery Obasi
For 2024, Nigerian filmmaker CJ ‘Fiery’ Obasi will make so much buzz on the global film space. In 2023, his film, ‘Mami Water’ got several nominations and got quite a number of awards but failed to make the final OSCARS nomination despite being Nigeria’s representative. Rather than being deterred, Obasi has begun activities for 2024. Already, the filmmaker has been selected to join notable world opinion and industry leaders for the Rockafella Foundation residency. He will be joining several industry leaders as a resident for the 2024 Bellagio Center Residency Program by the prestigious Rockefeller Foundation. This move will not only catapult Obasi’s visionary acumen but also underscores his commitment to advancing innovative projects that contribute to positive societal impact.
Burna Boy
While Burna Boy has been on a winning streak since 2019, it is without doubt that he will again make a buzz in 2024. With his new album, Burna Boy would be embarking on tours that might see him repeating old feats or making new feats. He might also be releasing a body of work before the end of t 2024, a source hinted.
Rema
2024 will determine if Rema will take his ‘situationship’ with Selena Gomez to a whole new height or would just ride on their friendship to see what the future further holds. However, it is instructive to note that Rema’s streaming numbers will continue to rise and his strategic performances to gain more fans across the world will continue. Rema might also be releasing another album in 2024.
Tiwa Savage
Tiwa Savage will try to make a big comeback in 2024 after ending 2023 on a not so good term following the announcement of issues with her vocal cords. It is projected that the singer will be returning to prove her worth as the African Bad gyal.
Mo Abudu
Mo Abudu is definitely going to consolidate on all her efforts of yesteryears and most recently 2023 to make serious buzz on the global film industry in 2024. After being named top international woman executive by The Hollywood Reporter in 2023, joining the jurors of Emmy Awards and sealing her influence as a powerful media guru in Nigeria, Mo Abudu will be the toast of the world in 2024. Aside from several project titles under her watch, she will be taking up more directorial roles in short and full feature films.
Funke Akindele
With a seeming knack for closing the Nollywood year in December with big titles that end up emerging biggest films in cinemas, Funke Akindele has become a constant feature in the piece.
Those close to Funke will readily attest to her preparation for a new project she and her team have already embarked on. Taking over from AY Makun, Akindele now seems to have perfected the act of smiling to the bank at the end of the year after working on many projects through the year.
Abiodun Jimoh
Award-winning filmmaker Abiodun Jimoh will also be making a buzz on the film scene with his highly anticipated film, ‘Luwo Gbagida.’ Jimoh is telling the story of the only female Ooni of Ife that ever existed in the new project. Sources maintained that Jimoh is working on the final stages of the film and is scheduled for a 2024 release in the cinema.
Rain Pryor, Bola Attah
The relationship between American filmmaker and actress Rain Pryor and REDTV boss, Bola Attah is set to take the Nigerian film industry to a whole new height. The two are working on a new film that will see popular Nigerian acts like Odunlade Adekola being on the same set with established Hollywood actors and actresses. The project which kicked off with the preliminaries in 2023 will be in full swing in 2024.
Nigeria’s most popular and biggest reality TV show, BBNaija will return for another season. While there are no information from the organisers of the show, sources revealed that the show is planned to return for another season in 2024. The show’s last edition wowed fans when it had ex-housemates returning to the house. The 2024 edition is expected to thrill fans of the show while South Africans can’t wait for a collaborative effort on BBTitans again.
Nigerian Idol
The annual music reality TV show, Nigerian Idol, will be in its ninth season in 2024. And already, organisers have hinted that the show which has produced eight different winners is billed to return for the ninth season. Fans and budding singers hoping to get a chance at fame, fortune and stardom can also prepare ahead of auditions.
Kizz Daniel
Kizz Daniel is known to have continued to dominate the industry with hit songs year after year. He is famed for not recording bad songs since he made it to fame. It is believed that he will repeat his winning streak or break his own record with the release of more hit songs in 2024.
Femi Adebayo
Femi Adebayo has emerged one of the acclaimed filmmakers since his success with two features that caused major stirs on two different streaming platforms in two years consecutively. Already, fans are yearning for a sequel to his epic monster ‘Jagun Jagun’, on Netflix and fans can’t wait for what Adebayo comes out with in 2024.
Tobi Bakre
Tobi Bakre is one actor that many did not see coming. The former Big Brother Naija housemate showcased his versatility in movie roles so much that he has made a name for himself as a particular self-made Nigerian hero character. From playing the character of ‘Obalola’ in Jade Osiberu’s ‘Gangs of Lagos’ to ‘Brotherhood,’ and recently ‘Edafe Majemijesu Umukoro’ in ‘Slum King,’ Bakre is no doubt going to make a buzz in 2024. His hard work was rewarded with an award at the 2023 AMAAs and he doesn’t seem like slowing down in 2024.
Layi Wasabi
The lanky funny man is one of the most promising talents in the skit making industry having proven himself even with less collaborations with his peers. Layi has been able to build a fanbase in a short period of time with different skit series like Mood, University Skits, GNCC and The Law. All aforementioned episodes are built on different characters that are very relatable to his audience.
Wonder D Talk
Mostly seen in Sabinus’ skits, Nduka or Wonder D Talk is one of popular skit maker Sabinus protégés who has also carved a nitch for himself in the skit industry. The Port Harcourt based comedian has since started his skit series where he adopts the lifestyle of a street scammer who takes no chances in scamming locals even with zero knowledge of the business. Wonder D Talk has broken even from just being behind Sabinu but also creating a new character of his own building a fanbase with over 216,000 followers on TikTok alone.
His slang, “I’m the don of a praying mother” is fast gaining popularity among young people.
Mr Lyf
Another breakout star from the Sabinus crew, he plays different characters in skits and has also decided to create a path for himself while adopting a blue shirt and red tie. Going by Mr Lyf’s skits, he tends to have a promising career in 2024.
Pastor Kasala
Often dressed in white garment robe and broken eye glasses, Pastor Kasala is another skit maker to watch out for in 2024. With his use of Yoruba Ondo dialect, Kasala is fast gaining popularity among TikTok users and skit lovers. Going by his skits, Kasala has worked with the likes of Mr Macaroni, Mummy Wa, Nollywood actors, Kemity and Apa. Her has over two hundred thousand likes on TikTok alone.
A cross-section of experts in diverse areas of expertise have expressed optimism on the positive economic outlook in the incoming year, reports IBRAHIM APEKHADE YUSUF. For many Nigerians, 2023, had a measure of the sweet and sour, the good, the bad and the ugly as most people suffered from serious economic crunch, especially with the removal of petroleum subsidy, naira redesign and refloating, inflation, amongst other unpalatable choices they are not willing to admit at all. But 2024 promises to be a lot better if key economic indicators are anything to go by, according to financial and economic experts.
How bank will drive growth in 2024
One sector that holds a lot of promises in the new year is the banking subsector. In the view of Olumide Sole, a Sub-Saharan Banking Research Analyst at Vetiva Capital Management, core banking will drive growth next year.
Speaking in a monitored television magazine programme on Arise TV, recently, he observed that the majority of coverage banks such as Zenith, GTCO, and UBA recorded a massive jump in their ends majorly driven by Forex evaluation gains in 2023.
Speaking on the cost of funds, Sole stated that as interest rate rises, the cost of funds also rises. He said, “As interest rates rise, banks also have to pay more interest rates for their customers’ deposits.”
He also added that the Standing Deposit Facility which the Central Bank of Nigeria removed the two billion limit which banks can deposit daily.
He said this now gives banks ample opportunity for more earning potential for their revenue or core banking income to grow better. “Banks can now earn more as they can deposit all excess liquidity via the window.”
Speaking on stocks, Sole added that Access is now the largest bank as per asset size and it is expected to keep growing. Concerning First Bank of Nigeria, he claimed that the recent creation of more shares will help in the bank’s expansion.
He spoke on other banks like the FCMB Group which just completed its additional tier one capital issuance which is expected to position the bank to give out more loans and expand the banking operations in general.
“Fidelity Bank recorded the largest expansion net in the first margin. Fidelity Bank’s acquisition of Union Bank UK will also improve the earnings of the bank while GTCO has one of the highest payout ratios and this is expected to play out even until next year.
He however stated that the dividend payout for Stanbic was N1.5, the same as last year and this might not be in line with the expectations of the investors. He added that Stanbic Bank launched a fintech subsidiary recently.
“UBA recorded impressive performance this year, with one of the largest recorded non-interest margins, we expect this to support the banks’ performance into 2024.
“Zenith Bank has about 40% dividend payout on average, a very impressive one for investors, so expect this to continue to support the banks’ performance in the stock market even to 2024,” he said.
Inflation to drop, naira to appreciate in 2024
In what may be a sigh of relief, Bismarck Rewane, chief executive officer (CEO) of Financial Derivatives, has assured that the country’s exchange rate is expected to appreciate as inflation drops in 2024.
Speaking at the recently held Parthian Partners 2024 economic outlook session in Lagos, Rewane said inflation is likely to “drop in 2024 and could go as low as 17 percent in 2025.”
The economist’s views on inflation and the trading performance of the naira — Nigeria’s local currency — comes after Olayemi Cardoso, the nation’s central bank governor, took a similar position recently.
According to Rewane, “Once inflation begins to decline, the exchange rate naturally appreciates because the exchange rate pass-through starts slowing down.”
The economist, however, said inflation would climb further in early 2024 as a result of market changes and ongoing currency volatility on the black market.
“Base effects are expected to kick in by mid-year, with inflation moderating to an average of 23.6 percent in 2024 from an average of 24.4 percent in 2023. The decline in inflation will naturally lead to exchange rate appreciation,” he said.
Speaking on economic trends in 2023, Rewane said the naira fell by 26 percent to N1,050/$ in 2023.
“There were higher energy prices with diesel price up by 34.01 percent to N1,050 per liter (year-on-year), fuel price up by 233 percent to N630 per liter (year-on-year), while money supply growth went up 36 percent (year-on-year) to N67.18trn in September,” he said.
Meanwhile, Rewane stressed that investment in Nigeria is a substantial contributor to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).
Speaking on the interrelated structure of the global economy, the CEO said Nigeria has a number of international issues that could influence the trajectory of the economy in 2024.
This, he said, encompasses geopolitical events, trade dynamics, rising market trends, and artificial intelligence.
Nigeria to face higher debt burden in 2024, says IMF
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Nigeria will face a higher percentage of debt to gross domestic product (GDP) burden in the coming year.
IMF gave the projection in its October 2023 report on ‘Africa: Special Issue: In Pursuit of Stronger Growth and Resilience.’
It indicated that Nigeria’s government debt would rise by 4.3 per cent of its GDP in 2024 from 38.8 per cent in 2023.
The IMF report also projected that Nigeria’s real GDP would slightly grow from 2.9 per cent this year to 3.1 per cent in 2024.
Nigeria’s real GDP, an inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the value of all goods and services produced by an economy in a given year, is expected to reach $489.80 billion by the end of 2023 and to peak around $504.99 billion in 2024.
Arising from the debt burden Nigeria and other low-income countries are carrying, the G-24, a group made up of 38 members plus China, had said not only were there high and increasing public debt levels with many developing countries but also that the countries carried unsustainable debt burdens.
There is hope the economy will rebound despite the growing debt and inflationary spike, according to the IMF.
The institution had projected growth in Nigeria’s real GDP to 3.1 per cent in 2024 and four per cent in sub-Saharan Africa; however, urging the region to take some precautionary measures.
“To ensure that the coming rebound is more than just a transitory glimpse of sunshine, it is important for authorities to guard against a premature relaxation of stabilisation policies while also focusing on reforms to both claw back lost ground from the four-year crisis and also to create new space to address the region’s pressing development needs,” IMF said.
According to the forecast by BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, Nigeria’s real GDP growth will increase modestly to 2.9% in 2024, up from 2.4% in 2023.
“We forecast that Nigeria’s real GDP growth will increase modestly to 2.9% in 2024, up from 2.4% in 2023. The most recent data released by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics shows that the economy expanded by a modest 2.5% y-o-y in Q323, unchanged from Q223.”
Expatiating, BMI further noted that Nigeria’s revenue-to-GDP will remain one of the lowest globally at 4.5% in 2024. “We anticipate that roughly 60% of the government’s federally retained revenue will be absorbed by debt servicing. Meanwhile, given that inflation will remain elevated through 2024, the government will be under pressure to increase the already-bloated public wage bill, exerting a further strain on the country’s budget position. As a result, the government’s fiscal space to ramp up productive spending – including investing in infrastructure projects – will continue to be severely restricted through 2024.”
Interestingly, the Fitch subsidiary anticipates that the Central Bank of Nigeria will maintain a relatively high benchmark interest rate, which it expects to end 2024 at 17.75%, thus keeping borrowing costs elevated.
“Given macroeconomic headwinds, low confidence and tight credit conditions, businesses are unlikely to commit to expansion plans over the coming months.”
The BMI is particularly upbeat about the possibility of the country making a lot of gains from the production at Dangote Refinery.
“Given that Nigeria will produce 1.62mn b/d of crude in 2024, there will still be a significant surplus available for export. Furthermore, long-standing contracts with international buyers and the need to maintain relationships with key trading partners – including the US, EU, and India – will mean that large volumes of crude will continue to be sold on the international market, preventing a downturn in overall exports. All told, we forecast that growth in exports of goods and services will soften from 19.3% in 2023 to 6.7% in 2024.
“Real GDP, % chg 2.4 2.9 Economic growth in Nigeria will improve modestly in 2024, primarily due to the operational start of the Dangote refinery. That said, Nigeria will continue to underperform by both Sub-Saharan Africa and emerging market standards as a result of high inflation, tight financial conditions, and fiscal constraints.”
Echoing similar sentiments, Enebi Opaoluwa, Senior Research and Policy Analyst at Budgit, while expressing optimism over the projections by the Minister of Finance Wale Edun on the positive outcomes of some of the government policies in the coming days, said that a lot would give.
Opaoluwa who was a guest at a public forum in Lagos, said the government from all indications has shown that it can be taken very seriously, and as such needs to maintain the tempo of activities that should translate to the much anticipated gains it wants to see in the major commanding heights of the economy.
Regardless of what is done, Opaoluwa would rather the government ensures that it reins in the monster of the rising exchange rate. The exchange rate is a very crucial factor and one of the key parameters in assessing the health of any economy, he stressed.
Hope rising for economy
While commenting on the state of the economy in the last few months, Peter Sunday Adebola, Managing Director, Edgefield Capital Management Limited, an investment-driven firm, said the government is tackling the problem besetting the country headlong despite the challenges it is confronting.
According to him, the current economic managers have shown the propensity to turn things around in the system judging by the raft of policy pronouncements they have made in recent times.
Citing the revamped Port Harcourt Refinery, he said, “If Port Harcourt Refinery I and II is working, then that means we would import less fuel and if we do that it is going to enhance our foreign exchange earnings capacity. Then again, another thing is the Dangote Refinery has also come on stream too. It has received some crude oil for prospecting.”
Refining capacity, he reiterated, “Will increase the pressure on our reserves and increase in food production if people can go back to their farms. Then we are going to see the kind of hope that this administration is promising us.”
Adebola, who lamented the absence of the middle class in the country as a result of the growing economic crunch, said, “It’s either you’re poor or you’re rich.”
With the right policy mix, he is optimistic that things would turn around for good. “We will see the appearance of the middle class and that is good for us as a country. If you look at our market capitalisation, it is now N40trillion. If you divide that by the exchange rate now, it means we are still hovering around $40b as we speak, which is small. So, we need an expanded market. If the environment is conducive enough we don’t need to be going on a roadshow overseas for foreign direct investment. No.
“A country of over 200million people doesn’t have any business being poor. That is why you see all these Indians trooping here while our folks are ‘japing’ in. We have got raw materials which can be used to transform the nation in all sectors. FDI will come naturally if there is adequate infrastructure.
“With a vibrant capital market, it would afford companies the opportunity to raise funds. Right now, the market is vibrant and we expect that by next year, it will be vibrant as well. There are lots of activities both in the primary and secondary markets. Likewise, if this happens, prosperity is going to come into the economy.”
He would also want the government to replicate what it is doing in other sectors in the food sector by tackling insecurity headlong.
Jamiu Mohammed Equity Trader at Apt Securities & Trust Limited is also on the same page with Adebola.
“We believe the market should continue to be in the green. We always advise our investors to look at the sound fundamentals of the companies they want to invest in to avoid any untoward outcomes because what pushed our market to this level is the fundamentality of the market.”
