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Category: Special Report

  • A vote for self-reliance through raw materials 30% value-addition Bill

    A vote for self-reliance through raw materials 30% value-addition Bill

    After decades of exporting raw materials at giveaway prices and importing finished products at steep costs, Nigeria is moving to end a cycle that has drained jobs, weakened industries, and exposed the economy to global shocks. The Federal Government’s proposed RMRDC 30% Value-Addition Bill—hailed as one of the nation’s boldest industrial reforms—seeks to mandate local processing before export, signalling a decisive push toward industrialisation, innovation and economic self-reliance, reports JULIANA AGBO

    For decades, Nigeria has heavily relied on exporting unprocessed raw materials—cocoa, cotton, minerals, timber, and agricultural produce—only to import finished products at far higher prices. The consequences are well known: weak productivity, limited job creation, pressure on foreign exchange, and an economy dangerously exposed to global shocks.

    To reverse this pattern, the Federal Government is championing the Raw Materials Research and Development Council (RMRDC) 30% Value-Addition Bill, which would mandate that no raw material leaves Nigeria without at least 30 percent local processing. Stakeholders at a one-day National Advocacy and Sensitisation Conference in Abuja described the Bill as one of the most transformative industrial policies proposed since independence. According to the Minister of Innovation, Science and Technology, Dr. Kingsley Tochukwu Udeh, the urgency of the legislation stems from a long-standing economic miscalculation. For years, he said, Nigeria’s model of exporting raw materials while importing finished goods has amounted to a “pact with poverty”—a system that exports national wealth and imports unemployment.

    Despite being the world’s sixth-largest producer of cassava and a leading global producer of cocoa, cashew, cotton, sesame, and several minerals, Nigeria still ships these commodities abroad at basement prices, only to buy them back as costly chocolates, textiles, oils, pharmaceuticals, and machinery. This practice, Udeh noted, has crippled industries that could employ millions. Although Nigeria’s value-addition rate has risen from 15.6 percent in 2013 to 25.2 percent in 2023, the Minister stressed that this progress remains insufficient for true structural transformation. The Bill—already passed by the National Assembly and awaiting presidential assent—seeks to ensure that materials such as lithium and cocoa are substantially processed locally before export. Udeh added that the policy will strengthen manufacturing, deepen local content, and drive innovation. “With this law,” he said, “value addition becomes not just a policy but a legal obligation with far-reaching economic impact.”

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    Expected economic benefit on each commodity

    The minister explained that the percentage of value addition would vary depending on the mineral or commodity, but would be calculated based on the final market product. Using lithium as an example, Dr. Udeh lamented that Nigeria currently exports most of it in its rawest form, forfeiting the much higher earnings and jobs that come with processing the mineral locally. “With this law, we could begin to talk about adding value to the lithium, going from lithium ore to lithium concentrate and lithium salt. Nigerians will be doing that in Nigeria. That is employment, that is capacity building, and that is infrastructure development.”

    He projected that the economic effects would be substantial, including higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP), improved balance of trade, job creation, expanded production capacity and stronger national sovereignty. The minister argued that Nigeria must break its long-standing dependence on exporting raw materials and importing finished goods at significantly higher prices. “Nigeria is, at the moment, an import-dependent economy. This leads to capital flight and depletion of foreign currency reserves. For example, we export cocoa beans and buy them back as chocolate at far higher prices. This 30% value addition is one of the most significant moves toward industrialisation and import substitution,” he added.

    A new push to woo investors 

    He dismissed concerns that the new law might discourage investors, insisting instead that it would attract greater foreign participation by compelling companies to establish processing plants in Nigeria. “It will not scare investors. It will rather attract them. This law gives confidence to investors that Nigeria encourages value chains across all products,” he said.

    Beyond value addition, Dr. Udeh explained that the Federal Government is intensifying efforts to reposition the country’s science, technology, and innovation (STI) ecosystem. Speaking on wider reforms, he stressed that Nigeria possesses the ideas and intellectual competence needed for global leadership in innovation but continues to lack the enabling environment. “Nigeria is not lacking in ideas. We’re not lacking in capacity, intellectually or in innovation. What is needed is the right environment and direction,” he noted.

    His priority, he said, is to ensure that research findings across institutions are translated into products and services that solve national problems. The minister lamented that many innovations are “cooling off on shelves” and said the Bola Tinubu administration is determined to reverse this by strengthening institutions, energising researchers, and supporting commercialisation. Dr. Udeh further explained that the 30% mandatory value-addition requirement forms part of a broader set of reforms aimed at deepening industrial capacity. He said agencies such as the Raw Materials Research and Development Council (RMRDC) are developing dashboards, data systems, and support infrastructure to help operators comply with the new policy. “The Federal Government understands that to talk about 30% value addition, we must provide the necessary infrastructure and support systems,” he added.

    On sanctions, the minister clarified that violators would face economic penalties designed to deter non-compliance. “If you breach the law, there will be sanctions— not necessarily imprisonment or fines, but economic-related sanctions that will dissuade players from flouting the law,” he said. He stressed that incentives, including improved infrastructure, funding, and technical assistance, will accompany the enforcement framework. According to him, the success of the bill is tied to job creation, industrial expansion, and long-term national self-reliance. “This 30% value addition is one of the actions that shows government is encouraging innovation not just by mouth, but by action,” he said.

    He added that both government and private-sector leaders, including the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, support full implementation. Asked how he hopes to be assessed at the end of his tenure, he said his goal is measurable progress in innovation-led industrialisation and expanded local manufacturing. “When a 10% increase in manufacturing value addition can raise our GDP by 2.5%, the cost of inaction is a luxury we can no longer afford,” he warned.

    Pathway to local participation

    The Bill, he insists, offers a concrete pathway to lasting economic change. Dr. Udeh situated it within a broader policy vision anchored on Presidential Executive Order No. 5 (EO5), signed in 2018 to prioritise Nigerian professionals, indigenous companies, and local raw materials in public projects. “EO5 has been our constitutional compass,” he explained. “But until now, its power has been aspirational rather than enforceable.”

    The challenge, he said, was never intent but implementation. While EO5 encouraged local participation, it lacked mechanisms to ensure compliance in the non-oil sector. The RMRDC 30% Value-Addition Bill, he argued, provides the missing link—a legislative engine that transforms EO5’s principles into measurable obligations. If EO5 offered the vision, this Bill supplies the machinery. By mandating a minimum processing threshold, incentivising technology transfer, and compelling companies to build capacity within Nigeria, it anchors an industrial framework that retains value within the economy.

    The Minister also described the Bill as a competitive imperative in the era of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The AfCFTA opens access to a 1.3-billion-person market but also intensifies competition for industrial dominance. “AfCFTA is not for raw material peddlers,” he warned. “It is for value-adding industrial powerhouses.” A mandatory 30% processing requirement, he said, will help Nigerian businesses capture greater market share across Africa by exporting semi-finished and finished goods rather than raw commodities. It will also shield domestic producers from cheap, unprocessed imports that undermine local industries. He urged researchers and academics to align their innovations with emerging industrial needs. “The market for your solutions is about to be guaranteed by law… Align your research with the 30% challenge,” he said, calling the Bill “a covenant with the next generation of Nigerians.”

    Corroborating this view, the Director General of RMRDC, Prof. Nnanyelugo Ike-Muonso, said his mandate has been to reposition the Council as the engine room of Nigeria’s industrialisation. Industrial growth, he noted, depends on ensuring that at least 80% of the country’s natural resources are used in manufacturing. “Value addition is non-negotiable,” he said, adding that codifying this agenda into law reduces the risk of policy reversals and secures long-term economic stability.

    Why advocacy before presidential assent?

    Prof. Ike-Muonso noted that legislative assent to the Bill is merely the firing gun. “But our industries must already be on the blocks, poised to sprint,” he said. Waiting until after assent, he argued, would create damaging delays at a time when global competition is fast and unforgiving. Industries need sufficient time to retool, adjust supply chains, secure technical partnerships, and prepare for full compliance. Advocacy at this stage, he stressed, is not presumptuous but preparatory. Early communication signals seriousness, reduces uncertainty, and enables investors to plan. “The era of raw export is ending. If you wish to participate in the Nigerian market, begin building your processing capacity now.”

    Both the Minister and the Director-General outlined clear expectations for all sectors. Manufacturers and processors, they said, must begin expanding processing plants, retrofitting existing facilities, building new semi-finished production lines, and preparing for certification and compliance requirements. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) were urged to position themselves within the supply chains that the Bill will stimulate—packaging, logistics, agro-processing, industrial clusters, and export-ready value chains. Prof. Ike-Muonso further called on domestic and foreign investors to view this moment as a green light for agro-industrial processing, mineral value addition, technology-transfer partnerships, and backward integration projects.

    The need to ensure compliance

    They emphasised that the Nigeria Customs Service, Standards Organisation of Nigeria (SON), National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC), Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) and other border agencies will have critical responsibilities: verifying value-addition certificates, ensuring compliance, blocking illegal raw exports, and harmonising standards to give effect to the law. He added that resource-rich states will play a central role by creating incentives for local processing, establishing industrial clusters, providing infrastructure, and strengthening raw material supply networks. Civil society and the media, he noted, will be vital in disseminating information, ensuring transparency, training SMEs, and holding institutions accountable.

    “We must prepare stakeholders’ minds for what to expect immediately upon assent. This Bill is not just a document; it is a declaration of Nigeria’s economic independence,” he said. If passed into law, the RMRDC 30% Value-Addition Bill will reshape Nigeria’s export architecture, domestic manufacturing, technology adoption, job creation, and foreign exchange inflows.

    The President of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Otunba Francis Meshioye, projected that the Bill will trigger thousands of new processing plants across agriculture, solid minerals, and petrochemicals. It will create high-skill jobs for young Nigerians, ease pressure on the naira by replacing imports with local production, attract investments into industrial zones, and raise manufacturing value addition significantly within a decade. “With AfCFTA opening Africa’s borders, Nigeria cannot stand idle. Exporting raw materials only fuels the industrial growth of other African nations. With value addition, however, Nigeria can compete as a continental industrial power,” he said.

  • Inside unregulated world of non-medical personnel who run skin-whitening drips, spas

    Inside unregulated world of non-medical personnel who run skin-whitening drips, spas

    The demand for fairer skin or skin-whitening driven primarily by women — and to a lesser extent, men has assumed another dimension. Among the various methods explored for skin whitening is the use of glutathione infusion, a method health practitioners warn could have dangerous implications. ALAO ABIODUN, in this piece, sheds light on the associated health risks, unsafe dermatological Inside unregulated world of non-medical personnel who run skin-whitening drips, spas practices, impacts, and how spas are exploiting client’s desperation for profit.

    The quest to look radiant and beautiful prompted 27-year-old Precious to visit a luxurious spa situated in the Lekki area of Lagos State. For Precious, she was motivated by the perceived social advantages and elevated status associated with a fairer skin. Her routine included intravenous glutathione infusions, a popular but controversial skin and anti-ageing treatment.

    Her self-esteem took a nosedive whenever she compared herself to other light-skinned women. Her insecurity was so overwhelming that, despite her fears of non-medical personnel injecting people, she decided to go for the intravenous glutathione infusions.

    Like Precious, many other women now want more. More bosoms, more buttocks, more Coca-cola-shaped bodies, beautiful and popping skin. But this has come at a cost for some people.

    The increasing quest for beauty through skin-lightening products has left most of its users with more dangerous health concerns such as hypertension, diabetes, cancer, tumours, etc. The process of skin lightening is a thriving procedure that comes in the form of soaps, creams, lasers, pills, and injectables.

    The trend of skin-lightening has eaten into the very crust of Nigeria’s high-class society. A number of spas and wellness centers in Nigeria pride themselves as the go-to place for skin-lightening.

    Why the craze?

    So why are some women willing to go to the extreme to alter their natural complexions? The reasons might be as complicated as the risks. Different skin-lightening beauty methods focus on faster and relatively thorough results, while covering up or downplaying the dangers, which leave the body open to grave health repercussions.

    Notably, the skin-lightening industry has always been a robust one, and for decades, bleaching creams were its core. However, the resurgence of intravenous glutathione infusions in Spas and Wellness centers has raised concerns among the medical community, especially regarding safety, dosage, and the lack of regulation around the practice in Nigeria. They are worried by the ethical implications of the non-regulated treatment, mostly administered at Spas.

    Enter Glutathione injection treatment

    Glutathione is an antioxidant that is naturally produced in our bodies. It is generated by our liver and has multiple responsibilities like repairing and building skin tissues, boosting immunity, slowing down the aging process, neutralising free radicals, and acting as an anti-cancer agent.

    It is also known as the “mother of all antioxidants”. As one gets older, the production of glutathione decreases, which, in turn, accelerates the process of aging. Glutathione injection treatment is very simple. It is quite similar to getting a vaccine shot. The dermatologist will prepare the glutathione injection by mixing multiple chemicals based on the skin type, colour, and other factors.

    When used intravenously for cosmetic purposes, it is said to lighten skin by interfering with melanin production. However, checks by The Nation revealed that there is no scientific consensus supporting its efficacy or safety when used in this way.

    The injection is administered to one’s body through his or her vein. A dermatologist will determine the frequency of the injection. It is usually three times a week in the initial days and then reduced to one day a week. It is believed that one can start seeing the results six to eight weeks after the treatment.

    Just like any other cosmetic treatment, there are a few risks and side effects associated with the glutathione injection treatment. Experts say the severity of the side effects is dependent on the administered dosage.

    In case of very high dosage, there are chances of blood poisoning and kidney failure.

    A Lagos-based dermatologist, Kemisola Ahmed said: “It is largely known that IV glutathione has benefits as an antioxidant, but it hasn’t been proven in any randomised clinical trials that it is safe or effective for skin lightening.

    “After an infusion, your skin may look temporarily lighter, and you probably feel better.”

    Beyond the lack of substantial evidence, she’s of the opinion that there’s an inherent danger in letting someone inject an unregulated fluid into your veins

    She said: “I can’t even wrap my head around how people have normalised letting non-health practitioners inject fluids into their body system. What if there’s an immediate allergic reaction to it? How did we get this careless with our own lives?”

    In the Philippines, glutathione IVs were ubiquitous in neighbourhood spas until 2011 when reports of serious skin rashes, thyroid issues, and kidney failure led to a ban by the country’s government, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued a warning that injectable skin lighteners were unsafe.

    Data from World Health Organization (WHO) reveals that Nigeria has a skin bleaching prevalence rate of 77%. This is the highest in the world. Many persons are unaware of the dangers posed to their lives by the intravenous glutathione infusions they allow into their body system.

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    Dermatologists have consistently advised that little enhanced self-esteem for the sake of aesthetics is not worth the risk of bleaching the skin.

    “I’ve never seen a society that encourages quackery this much. People with zero training have multi-million naira wellness brands in Nigeria, and after chronic exposure to these shambolic health excursions, they will come to the hospital, expecting real doctors to perform miracles.” Samson Adeife, a medical doctor, said.

    A case of body dysmorphia?

    Body dysmorphia could also be another issue fuelling the uptake of aesthetically-pleasing outlook. This is when someone has an obsessive focus on the way they look and this is common among women.

    With varied reasons for the skin and body enhancement, many people go through the intravenous glutathione infusion process and other medications like pills to have their desired light skin.

    Disturbingly, some expectant mothers have caught on the vogue as they take in medications or engage in the glutathione infusion process in an attempt to bleach the skin of their unborn babies.

    Body modification is an age-old practice which has taken on new dimensions in recent years due to factors like body shaming, peer pressure, media influences, global beauty trends, and the desire for the “perfect” body.

    This has led to a rise in botched surgeries and even fatalities, especially when performed by non-professionals or quacks. The government’s response to these issues has been relatively passive, allowing the problem to grow and enabling entry of more unqualified practitioners.

    Our correspondent, who visited popular spas and wellness outlets in Ikeja and Lekki area of Lagos state, noticed a new wave of ‘special’ lightning products and the glutathione infusion patronage by women.

    For these spas, their glutathione IV process begins from N35,000. Some others charge from N70,000.

    The market for skin-lightening products is vast, with an economy of billions of dollars per annum globally. Among the various methods explored for skin health, oral and topical supplementation with glutathione has gained attention due to their proven efficacy and favorable safety profile compared to other approaches.

    The increasing patronage for glutathione infusion is not peculiar to Nigeria alone. Findings by Channel 4 News recently laid bare the alarming scale of unregulated intravenous glutathione drips being used in the United Kingdom (UK) for skin whitening, lightening and brightening.

    The investigation found over 300 beauty salons across the country have been found offering these cosmetic procedures – many without any medical supervision – and promoting them on social media to vulnerable consumers.

    These invasive treatments are being marketed with misleading claims and in some cases, administered in beauty settings lacking hygiene or safety standards. Consumers have reported suffering serious side effects including anaphylaxis requiring hospitalisation, kidney strain and infections.

    Despite the dangers, these procedures remain entirely unregulated in the UK, and injectable products like glutathione are still being sold with ease online and in-person.

    Ian Andrews, Head of Environmental Health at the Chartered Institute of Environmental Health (CIEH), said: “The use of these procedures, many without medical supervision, is extremely concerning and we would really welcome clarity from the Government on when further legislation will be consulted on because existing legislation is outdated.”

    Ashton Collins, Director at Save Face, said: “We are extremely concerned about the increase in the availability of glutathione IV drips in the UK. These treatments are not licensed for cosmetic use here and pose significant health risks.

    “Unfortunately, they are being offered in unregulated, unsterilised environments without proper clinical oversight. Prescribers and providers must understand that prescribing unlicensed medicines like glutathione outside of a genuine clinical diagnosis and therapeutic need is both dangerous and illegal.”

    Spa attendants to clinicians: Desperation from spa owners?

    Adeola Adeniyi, a nurse, expressed dismay over how non-healthcare professionals administer drips to their clients.

    She said: “These spas are beginning to do too much. They seem to be looking for one thing or the other as a competitive edge against their competitors. Desperation to have a unique selling proposition.

    “These glutathione IV drips given are absolutely unnecessary. A healthy diet and drinking water is enough to give you all the necessary nutrients your body needs.

    “When is a spa spot now a medical licensed place for drip? Many ladies keep endangering their lives for a few minutes acknowledgement.

    “Imagine allowing a spa to administer glutathione IV drips, likely by a non-healthcare professional. What if there was a reaction considering the fact that it was straight into your blood? This is unethical,” she stated.

    Experts weigh in

    Medical professionals have opined that exposing the liver and kidneys to large quantities of vitamins can place them under significant stress.

    There is always a risk of infection with IV vitamin therapy, as any time an IV line is inserted; it creates a direct path into the bloodstream.

    Despite this, the drips are on sale and promoted by celebrities, influencers online.

    Global Health Executive, Dr. Ajidahun Olusina believes that the marketing of glutathione IV drips is actually a cash cow strategy used by a lot of spas.

    Olusina said: “The food you eat has enough supply of glutathione which is an anti-oxidant to mop up dangerous ROS, and collagen is a protein produced in your body. Why are they giving what you already have?

    “It’s actually a cash cow strategy used by a lot of spas. If you use the money of that drip to buy tomatoes, veggies, a lot of fruits and eat plus water, you will get more benefits than that drip they are telling you will give you collagen and glutathione. Don’t let these spas dupe you like they regularly dupe Lagos and Abuja elites, “Big girls”, celebs, e.t.c.

    “Your liver stores so much. (Except there’s a problem, which will be addressed at a hospital not a spa). Don’t let all these quacks in the name of beauticians, aesthetician, wannabe masseurs and masseuses siphon your hard earned money.

    “You don’t need to be infused with collagen. You have it in your body already. It makes a huge bulk of supporting protein structures. What they are doing won’t reverse aging.

    “Almost everywhere in your body has collagen, your skin, your hair, your nails, your bones, your muscles, your ligaments, on and on. They will use big words that you need collagen because they know most people don’t know, then get you to pay for what is sitting pretty in you.”

    Another medical doctor, Obinna Ossai warned women to be wary of the antics of spas and wellness centres.

    Ossai said: “Run from any spa that offers to set lines on you and start fluids in the name of giving you a ‘youthful look’ or whatever they are using these days. Such spas are dangerous scammers and should be reported to the authorities. You don’t need vitamin drips. You can get them from fruits and food. Why are you getting vitamin C drip when two oranges gives you all the vitamin C you need in a day, at way cheaper rate than the drip you are getting? They can damage your liver and kidney.  Except you are critically deficient, you don’t need it.

    A UK-based doctor, Olufunmilayo Ogunsanya said all the vitamins, collagen, glutathione needed by one is deposited in one’s food, vegetables and fruits.

    He said: “If you go to a spa or massage parlour, and they give you a drip telling you it is “glutathione” or “vitamins”, you have just wasted your money; you have sadly risked your life and they have just scammed you by exploiting your ignorance. You do not need vitamin/glutathione drips in spa parlours.

    “You do not need “vitamin drips” and “glutathione drips” in a spa. You are wasting your money, you are risking your life and you are being scammed.

    “They can use unsterilised needles for you – they can give you HIV, Hepatitis and many other diseases. They can push air bubbles into your veins which can go into your heart and you will drop dead.

    “Please avoid drip infusions in spas. I know Nigerians think it’s a “healthy thing to do”, but I promise you, it is not. You are wasting your money. You are putting your life at risk. And you could die getting these drips. Eat well, drink water, take fruits, exercise regularly and you are totally perfect.”

  • Enhancing the safety, security of volunteer traffic warriors

    Enhancing the safety, security of volunteer traffic warriors

    Nigeria’s roads remain perilous, with thousands of crashes and lives lost each year, and volunteer traffic marshals often find themselves on the frontlines of this crisis. On November 8, the University of Lagos hosted the 2025 Special Marshals Sectoral Workshop, bringing together policymakers, security experts and volunteers to confront rising risks, review operational gaps, and chart strategies to enhance the safety, security, and effectiveness of those who keep the nation’s highways safer, reports Ntakobong Otongaran

    There is a quiet, uncelebrated heroism that often threads through Nigeria’s highways—borne not in sirens or ceremony, but in the reflective vests of men and women who surrender their weekends and at times their own safety to keep others alive. It was this spirit of selfless civic service, fragile yet determined, that seemed to breathe through the sparkling ambience of the main auditorium of the University of Lagos, where Special Marshals and policymakers recently gathered for the 2025 Special Marshals Sectoral Workshop.

    Unlike typical official gatherings, this one carried the weight of urgency. Nigeria’s roads had again delivered a grim reminder of their volatility: 5,281 crashes in just six months; nearly 40,000 people involved; almost 3,000 lives extinguished; tens of thousands rescued from the brink. And above it all loomed the World Health Organisation’s chilling metric—21.4 deaths per 100,000 citizens—branding Nigeria as one of Africa’s deadliest terrains for road users. The statistics were not recited for drama; they were the shadows under which every discussion took shape.

    Unlike the routine cadence of official gatherings, this one carried a palpable weight of urgency. Nigeria’s highways had once again laid bare their unforgiving volatility: 5,281 crashes in just six months; nearly 40,000 people caught in their chaos; close to 3,000 lives abruptly extinguished; tens of thousands pulled back from the edge. Hovering over it all was the World Health Organisation’s stark calculation—21.4 deaths per 100,000 citizens—casting Nigeria among Africa’s most perilous landscapes for road users. These figures were not summoned for effect; they were the sombre shadows beneath every conversation in the hall.

    Taking the podium on behalf of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dr Tajudeen Abbas, the Chairman of the House Committee on Safety Standards and Regulations, David Idris Zacharias, distilled the debate with crisp clarity. Safety and security, he reminded the hall, are not parallel lines—they intersect constantly and decisively to shape every facet of road governance. The FRSC, he urged, must invest deeper in the skills that truly save lives: emergency response, first aid, fire prevention, safety management. A uniform, he said, does not make a competent marshal; training does, equipment does, the right operational environment does. He pushed the argument further by calling for a bolder embrace of technology—smarter surveillance systems, more agile traffic control mechanisms, and digital tools capable of lifting Nigeria’s road-safety architecture onto faster, more responsive footing. His assurance that the National Assembly stood ready to support efforts to strengthen operational standards sent a subtle ripple of optimism through the hall.

    In his welcome address, the Lagos State Coordinator of Special Marshals, Dr Olabisi Dennis, rooted the day’s reflections in pride and purpose. A UNILAG alumnus himself, he pointed to the symbolic weight of hosting the session at a campus known for producing leaders, thinkers, and nation-shapers. Lagos, he noted with warmth, had become a standard-bearer for volunteer dedication—its Special Marshals embodying discipline, unity, and an unwavering sense of public duty. For Dennis, the workshop was more than a meeting; it was a renewal. The challenges are evolving, he acknowledged, and volunteers must evolve with them. But he expressed confidence—anchored in the shared resolve he saw in the room—that the deliberations would yield ideas strong enough to elevate the Special Marshals scheme for the years ahead.

    The keynote address, delivered by the Lagos State Sector Commander of the Federal Road Safety Corps, Corps Commander Kehinde Hamzat, offered a penetrating appraisal of the operational terrain confronting Special Marshals today. He observed that their responsibilities had grown markedly more complex, shaped by emerging security threats and the increasingly unpredictable behaviour of certain road users. Hamzat noted that both officers and volunteers had, in recent times, endured harassment, threats, and even physical confrontations during operations across Lagos corridors—incidents that, in his view, underscored the urgent need to recalibrate existing strategies to better safeguard personnel.

    Describing the Special Marshals as an indispensable extension of the Corps’ operational strength, he praised their voluntary service, which has elevated public education efforts, enhanced field operations, and deepened community engagement. Yet, he cautioned that today’s realities demanded heightened vigilance, tighter coordination with Regular Marshals, and more deliberate collaboration with security agencies. He referenced several troubling episodes in which marshals had been exposed to danger, insisting that operational security must now sit at the very centre of strategic planning.

    Hamzat outlined priority strategies for the future: stronger situational awareness, thorough pre-operation risk assessments, robust communication channels, and reinforced partnerships with security operatives during patrols and high-risk deployments. He encouraged greater adoption of technology—GPS tracking, authorised communication platforms, and field recording devices—to strengthen accountability and minimise operational disputes. Continuous capacity building, he stressed, was equally crucial, recommending periodic refresher courses on conflict management, first aid, and emergency response. Beyond strategy and equipment, he emphasised the human element: volunteer welfare. Recognition, support, and a sense of belonging, he noted, remained essential to sustaining performance, motivation, and long-term retention within the Special Marshals scheme.

    The technical session, helmed by Prof Iyiola Oni of the Centre for Multimodal Transport Studies at the University of Lagos, widened the discourse, placing Nigeria’s challenges within a global, evidence-driven context. His presentation laid bare the staggering scale of the road safety crisis worldwide: 1.35 million lives lost annually to road crashes, and 50 million more left with serious injuries. Nearly half of the victims were vulnerable road users—pedestrians, cyclists, and children—and 93 per cent of these fatalities occurred in low- and middle-income countries.

    Turning the lens to Nigeria, Oni argued that the nation’s persistently high fatality rate revealed systemic gaps demanding urgent, decisive action. Enforcement alone would not suffice; education, institutional strengthening, and structured volunteer support were equally critical. Within this framework, he highlighted the indispensable role of the Special Marshals. Describing them as individuals of integrity and means, Oni emphasised that these volunteers dedicate their time and expertise to advance the national road safety agenda. Their duties span highway patrols, traffic control during special operations, road safety education, data collection, and research support. It was precisely their voluntary commitment that rendered them a singular asset in Nigeria’s transport safety architecture.

    Yet, Oni did not shy away from outlining the risks they face. Exposure to roadside hazards, harassment from motorists, limited emergency response systems, insufficient safety training, and inadequate welfare or insurance coverage were recurring challenges that undermined both effectiveness and safety. To address these vulnerabilities, he recommended a structured approach: comprehensive safety and security policies for volunteers, improved provision of personal protective equipment, closer collaboration with security agencies, and robust insurance coverage. Regular training in first aid, emergency scene management, and conflict de-escalation, he insisted, must also be institutionalised.

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    Workshop participants reinforced these concerns with vivid field accounts. Coordinators spoke of Marshals confronting aggression from motorists, threats during traffic duties, and insufficient backup from security agencies during high-risk assignments. These testimonies underscored the urgent need for strengthened operational safeguards and institutional frameworks. The presence of the House Committee chairman, Zacharias, lent hope that these concerns might translate into concrete legislative action. Zacharias had earlier reiterated the committee’s commitment to national safety standards, signalling that recommendations from the workshop could influence policy—news that resonated deeply with volunteers who long sought statutory support.

    Technology emerged repeatedly as a transformative tool. GPS-enabled patrol monitoring, digital communication platforms, and body cameras were proposed as essential for transparency, accountability, and efficiency, echoing practices successfully deployed in other countries. Equally pressing was first aid training. Participants stressed that timely intervention often separates life from death on Nigerian roads. They advocated equipping every Special Marshal with basic life-support skills and standardised first aid kits, noting that delays in medical response frequently exacerbate the toll of road crashes.

    As the workshop drew to a close, the Lagos Sector Commander reaffirmed the Corps’ unwavering commitment to the Special Marshals, whose discipline, dedication, and patriotism had consistently bolstered road safety across Lagos—a state renowned for one of the country’s most intricate and demanding traffic systems. He expressed confidence that the recommendations emerging from the workshop would inform future operational guidelines, strengthen field conditions, and enhance the overall effectiveness of the volunteer scheme.

    The event concluded on a note of renewed purpose, emphasizing steadfast adherence to the principles of safety, discipline, and public service. While the challenges before Nigeria’s road safety framework remain formidable, the deliberations highlighted the indispensable value of a secure, well-trained, and adequately supported volunteer corps. The measured tone of the discussions underscored the need for prudence, institutional order, and strategic foresight as the nation navigates the complexities of modern road safety management.

  • Tackling oil price shocks with economic diversification, FX reforms

    Tackling oil price shocks with economic diversification, FX reforms

    Nigeria’s economic diversification project is gaining ground. Oil is now accounting for a smaller share of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 33 per cent of government revenue, and 51 per cent of exports. With oil now a smaller share of GDP and fiscal revenue, a sharp oil-price decline is being cushioned by the flexible foreign exchange (FX) regime, rising non-oil exports, and growing services trade. The deployment of the Electronic Forex Market Surveillance System, shift to a single, market-determined exchange rate regime, and enhanced risk-based banking are expanding Nigeria’s capacity to absorb external shocks and diversify away from oil, reports Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE.

    After nearly a decade in which real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth averaged about two per cent, the economic reforms initiated by the Federal Government have begun to restore momentum and confidence in Nigeria’s broader macroeconomic environment. In the second quarter of 2025, the economy expanded by 4.23 per cent—the strongest growth in four years—driven by improvements in telecommunications, financial services, and oil production.

    The introduction of the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Code has established clear rules for transparency, ethics, governance and fair dealing among authorised dealers. The deployment of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Management System (EFEMS) system, powered by Bloomberg BMatch, has equally transformed FX trading through mandatory order submission, real‑time regulatory visibility, and enhanced price discovery. Together, these reforms have reduced opacity and manipulation, and restored discipline to the market. The naira now trades within a narrow, stable range. The once‑substantial gap between the official and parallel markets has shrunk to under two per cent, down from over 60 per cent.

    Foreign capital inflows reached US$20.98 billion in the first 10 months of 2025, a 70 per cent increase over total inflows for 2024 and a 428 per cent surge compared to the US$3.9 billion recorded in 2023, reflecting a clear resurgence in investor confidence. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, explained that naira now trades within a narrow, stable range. The huge gap between the official and parallel markets has shrunk to under two per cent, from over 60 per cent. For him, macroeconomic indicators show that Nigeria is more resilient to external shocks today than at any point in her recent history.

    For instance, Nigeria’s external sector strengthened decisively in 2025, with the current account balance rising over 85 per cent to US$5.28 billion in Q2, up from US$2.85 billion in Q1. Bolstering our external buffers, foreign reserves reached US$46.7 billion by mid-November, the highest in nearly seven years, providing over 10 months of forward import cover and significantly enhancing the economy’s resilience.

    Cardoso explained that what is most important here is that Nigeria’s FX reserves are being rebuilt organically, not by borrowing, but through improved market functioning, stronger non‑oil exports, and robust capital inflows. “While oil production improved modestly to an average of 1.45–1.52 million barrels per day in 2025, the truly encouraging development is the strong performance of non-oil exports. Supported by ongoing reforms and greater exchange-rate flexibility, non-oil exports have grown by more than 18 per cent year-on-year, reflecting rising competitiveness under a truly market-driven FX framework,” he said.

    He disclosed that as with foreign investor inflows, diaspora remittances have also strengthened with confidence returning to official channels following enhancements in transparency, settlement efficiency, and reporting. “Remittances increased by approximately 12 per cent this year, and we expect this momentum to continue as the Non-Resident BVN, launched earlier this year, becomes more widely adopted in 2026.”

    Flexible exchange rate to be sustained

     The CBN boss said the apex bank is committed to maintaining the current flexible exchange‑rate framework that allows the naira to act as a shock absorber while limiting excessive volatility. “To strengthen this framework further, we will shortly be unveiling the revised FX Manual to expand market participation and tighten documentation standards, enhance EFEMS surveillance, and ensure consistent implementation to avoid any possibility of policy reversal. Recent assessments by rating agencies have provided significant external validation of Nigeria’s reform trajectory,” he said.

    Already, Fitch, Moody’s, and Standard & Poor’s have all acknowledged the positive impact of Nigeria’s reforms, from stronger reserves to improved fiscal discipline and greater FX transparency. Across all three agencies, the direction is consistent: fundamentals are strengthening, reform credibility is rising, and Nigeria’s risk profile is improving. “Fitch upgraded Nigeria from B- to B (stable), recognising our commitment to orthodox policies including FX reform, monetary tightening, and ending deficit monetisation.” Moody’s also raised its rating from Caa1 to B3 in May, citing improved fundamentals and a stronger outlook. And just this November, S&P affirmed B-/B and revised its outlook to positive, underscoring sustained reform momentum, rising reserves, and enhanced macroeconomic resilience.

    Moody’s has also further concluded its periodic review and while headlines may highlight risks, as rating agencies are mandated to do, the substance of the report reaffirms ongoing improvements, including stronger fiscal metrics and deeper diversification. “These endorsements of Nigeria’s policy direction have translated directly into improved borrowing terms, increased investment inflows, and enhanced credibility. Underscoring this progress, Nigeria this month successfully raised US$2.35 billion through a Eurobond issuance, attracting US$13 billion in orders, the largest in the nation’s history,” he said.

    Major policy shifts lifting economy

    Prof. Abiodun Adedipe, founder and Chief Consultant of B. Adedipe Associates Limited (BAA Consult), listed major policy shifts yielding positive results for the economy. He said that the CBN has eliminated  strange arbitraging and round-tripping opportunity through the forex market reforms; through petrol subsidy removal, the Federal Government removed crippling annual waste of US$10.7 billion and created environment for competition; bank recapitalisation is creating stronger and more capable banks to fund US$1 trillion economy while fiscal consolidation is plugging leakages, deploying technology and making government agencies more accountable and expanding fiscal space at sub-national.

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    Continuing, Adedipe said the real game changer remains the tax reforms, capable of igniting regional competition (the secret behind Chinese economic renaissance) while the Nigerian Education Loan Fund, Consumer Credit Corporation, recapitalised Bank of Agriculture, National Credit Guarantee Company Ltd, Single digit interest rate mortgage loans are major steps that should be taken to support sustainable economic growth.

    Support for domestic economy

    Adedipe said that Nigeria’s economy is supported by large, youthful and rapidly growing population (estimated at 237.53 million in July 2025 and sixth largest in the world, median age at 18.1 years). The country, he said, also benefits from rapid urbanisation with 54.28 per cent in December 2023, up from 46.12 per cent in 2013 and 51.96 per cent in 2020, deepening internet penetration which is at 48.15 per cent in April 2025, up from 45.57 per cent in August 2023 and 31.48 per cent in December 2018.

    Nigeria’s tele-density is at 79.65 per cent in May 2025, from 76.08 per cent in December 2024 and 102.97 per cent in Dec 2023, due to data cleanup at end of April 2024. “On global internet users, Nigeria with 123 million ranks 11th and 7th with over 84 per cent on mobile devices. Local oil refining continues to expand and prospects of new refineries, manufacturing is reviving and there is expanding interest in non-oil exports. Improvement in infrastructure will begin to positively impact the cost of doing business,” he said. He added that sustained deep reforms will enhance global competitiveness and Ease of Doing Business, plug leakages and shrink the space for economic rent.

    Fiscal‑monetary coordination

    The CBN explained that monetary reform cannot be effective in a vacuum. Alignment with fiscal policy has strengthened Nigeria’s macro stability and yielded tangible results including reduced domestic borrowing costs, improved liquidity conditions, and more predictable fiscal operations.

    For instance, the discontinuation of direct deficit financing signals one prong in our commitment to discipline. “This stance is unequivocal as there will be no return to the practice of financing fiscal deficits by the Central Bank. In parallel, the fiscal authorities have embarked on key institutional reforms – including the implementation of a Revenue Optimisation (RevOp) framework, the establishment of a new National Revenue Agency, and upgrades to the Treasury Single Account (TSA) – to strengthen revenue mobilisation and public financial management.

    “As we transition towards a full‑fledged inflation‑targeting framework, this partnership will deepen, ensuring fiscal and monetary policies reinforce each other in delivering durable price stability,” Cardoso said.

    Oil/gas output, revenue position

    The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) reported a significant surge in revenue, hitting N5.08 trillion in October 2025, up from N4.27 trillion recorded in September. The figures are contained in the company’s Monthly Report Summary for October 2025. According to the report, NNPC Ltd’s profit after tax (PAT) rose sharply to N447 billion in October, compared to N216 billion in September, stronger operational efficiency, improved market conditions, and enhanced cost optimisation strategies deployed by the national oil company.

    The report shows that production hit 6,997 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscf/d) in October, up from 6,284 mmscf/d in September. Gas sales, reported on an M-2 basis, climbed to 4,713 mmscf/d, marking a significant increase from 3,443 mmscf/d recorded in the previous month. Crude oil production experienced a slight dip, falling to 1.58 million barrels of oil per day (mmbopd) in October from 1.61 mmbopd in September. NNPC Ltd also stated that it will continue to sustain industry-wide collaboration and drive production recovery initiatives.

    Buffers against oil prices fall

    Managing Director, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane, said global oil prices have dropped significantly, now hovering just above $63 per barrel while the naira exchanges at N1,445/$ at the official window. The Wall Street Journal’s grim forecast that Brent crude could fall below $50 per barrel by the end of 2025 only deepens the urgency for strategic policy responses. To strengthen economic buffers and sustain FX inflows, the CBN has proactively initiated strong measures aimed at cushioning the domestic economy against the looming oil price shock and ensuring sustainable economic development.

    Nigeria’s 2025 budget is squeezed by assumption of oil production of two million barrels per day and an oil price of $75 a barrel. At a benchmark of $75 per barrel and a production capacity of two million barrels per day (mbpd), Nigeria’s oil revenues would fall given the present oil price which is below budget benchmark. Such a shortfall could push the fiscal deficit to between six and seven per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), potentially fuelling inflationary pressures and weakening macroeconomic stability. Among these are policies to boost Nigeria’s non-oil export potential, strengthen backward integration to reduce dependence on imported goods, and streamline diaspora dollar remittances to enhance foreign exchange inflows.

    Drawing from China’s economic strategy, the apex bank said Nigeria’s competitive exchange rate can drive export-led growth. To harness this potential, businesses are expected to adopt export-oriented strategies by targeting sectors with strong export potential such as agriculture, manufacturing and creative industries; implement import-substitution models by strengthening domestic production capabilities and reducing reliance on costly imports; and focus on value addition by shifting from exporting raw materials to processed goods, thereby boosting foreign exchange earnings.

    Cardoso said Nigeria’s creative sector has potential to attract $25 billion annually to the economy, highlighting the untapped opportunities in Nigeria’s expanding creative sector, including music, film, crafts and digital exports. He urged businesses to explore international markets, digital platforms, and global tours to increase dollar revenue inflows. The CBN boss also recently advised telecom companies to reduce their dependence on foreign imports by producing key components of their inputs locally. The backward integration proposal for the telecom industry comes at a time the real sector is in dire need of sustainable growth. The CBN boss gave insights on what the economy stands to gain from backward integration in the telecoms sector.

    Discouraging foreign services import

    Speaking in Abuja during a visit by the Airtel Africa management team led by Group CEO Sunil Taldar, the CBN Governor underscored the importance of boosting local production to ease pressure on the dollar, generate employment and strengthen the national economy. Cardoso emphasised the urgent need to domestically manufacture key telecom inputs—such as SIM cards, cables and towers—that are currently being imported in large volumes. He highlighted that the CBN has taken deliberate steps to stabilise the foreign exchange market, strengthen the naira, and attract investor confidence. With these foundations now in place, he urged telecommunications companies to embrace backward integration as a strategic imperative.

    In response, the Airtel Africa CEO commended the CBN’s reform efforts and voiced strong support for local production, noting that such a shift would ultimately yield long-term benefits for the telecommunications industry. He also reaffirmed Airtel’s commitment to expanding financial inclusion across Nigeria through innovative technology solutions.

    Research Head, Cowry Asset Management Limited, Charles Abuede, said the CBN governor’s call was to discourage the importation of foreign services into Nigeria, especially when efforts can be made to develop such services locally. “The high demand for foreign exchange by telecom operators has further pressured the naira due to increased demand for the dollar. However, with adequate infrastructure development and a conducive operating environment facilitated by regulators, these challenges can be mitigated,” he said. According to Abuede, “given Nigeria’s FX policies, illiquidity in the foreign exchange market and infrastructure deficits, I think increased investment in the telecom sector would enable operators to embrace backward integration. This would allow them to manufacture key components, such as SIM cards, locally. As a result, production costs could decline—provided the operating environment remains stable. This will improve profit margins and enhance both top-line and bottom-line growth in the long run.”

    Building resilient economy

    He said Nigeria’s economy has been fully restructured and is now resilient, with huge buffers against global risks. Cardoso said the naira has equally emerged as a competitive currency, with the economy witnessing positive trade balances and large businesses moving from imports to export of locally produced goods and commodities. According to him, the positive economic indicators have combined to create resilient and strong buffers, keeping the economy in great shapes.

    O n the impact of the trade tariffs on the domestic economy, the CBN boss said the tariffs are less of problems for the country. “And for us again, oil is basically the only commodity that was so exposed to the tariffs, and the impact of that was relatively modest. We now have a more competitive currency with the results that, for once, we have a situation where we have a positive balance of trade surplus, and we expect it to be six per cent in GDP for some time.

    “So basically, what is happening is a complete restructuring of the economy, where we are encouraging people to go into domestic production, and, of course, discouraging imports. And I think we were very fortunate, because a lot of the things that were needed to have been done, we did them much earlier, and as a result of that, we’re able to create resilience and buffers against potential shocks,” Cardoso stated.

    He explained further that oil was the oil commodity that was exposed to the trade tariffs, but the impact was equally modest. “So, and of course, in terms of anchoring expectations, we found that those who followed the Nigerian economy were fairly comfortable. And for us, again, oil is basically the only commodity that was so exposed, and the impact of that was relatively modest,” he said. Overall, oil prices may face further declines if OPEC+ decides to raise output. The alliance is expected to focus on reviving another sliver of production in December in a move that may amplify traders’ concerns about a global glut.

  • NERC’s leadership void puts power sector on edge

    NERC’s leadership void puts power sector on edge

    A dangerous leadership vacuum has engulfed the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), where the tenure of the Vice Chairman and several Commissioners expires today, compounding a crisis that began in June when the Chairmanship fell vacant. With the Electricity Act 2023 offering no provision for an Acting Chairman, the Commission now risks operating without a legally recognised head—an unprecedented situation stakeholders warn could plunge the already fragile power sector into a full regulatory shutdown, reports Assistant Editor MUYIWA LUCAS.

    A leadership vacuum now grips the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) as the tenure of the Vice Chairman and several Commissioners expired yesterday, deepening an institutional crisis that began in June when the Chairmanship position fell vacant. The Electricity Act 2023 does not provide for an Acting Chairman once an incumbent’s tenure lapses, meaning the Commission may, in strict legal terms, operate without a head—an outcome stakeholders warn could trigger a “full regulatory shutdown” in a sector already fraught with instability.

    To avert this, President Bola Tinubu had, in August, nominated Abdullahi Garba Ramat—an engineer and former Local Government Chairman—as substantive Chairman, alongside two Commissioner nominees: Abubakar Yusuf for Consumer Affairs and Dr. Fouad Olayinka Animashun for Finance and Management Services. But the confirmation process has stalled in the Senate. Last month, Senate Committee on Media and Public Affairs Chairman, Senator Yemi Adaramodu, disclosed that the upper chamber halted Ramat’s confirmation due to what he described as a “baggage of public and private complaints” surrounding his nomination. According to him, the Senate was “statutorily bound” to step down any nominee under intense public scrutiny, noting that several appointees before now had withdrawn in similar circumstances. He insisted that the National Assembly could not be “dragged into public opprobrium” through allegations—however unproven—such as the widely circulated but unsubstantiated claim of a $10 million bribery scandal linked to the process.

    Despite this, pressure continues to mount. On November 11, protesters comprising civil society groups, human rights activists, and supporters of Ramat marched to the National Assembly, demanding the Senate fast-track his confirmation. They expressed frustration that although Ramat had already undergone screening by the Senate Committee on Power, led by Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, he has yet to be cleared for the role—leaving NERC’s leadership uncertainty unresolved.

    Appointment on merit

    Checks revealed that 39-year-old Abdullahi Garba Ramat may possess credentials that suggest potential for modernisation. He holds a Doctoral degree (PhD) in Strategic Management and has earned recognition for introducing blockchain-driven revenue systems and energy-efficiency initiatives during his tenure as Chairman of Ungogo Local Government Area, Kano State. Yet, despite these achievements, many stakeholders insist that his lack of direct power-sector experience stands as a significant drawback—one that could undermine his ability to lead Nigeria’s most sensitive regulatory institution.

    The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, expressed deep concern over the growing leadership vacuum in NERC. According to him, the electricity sector is already grappling with liquidity crises, widespread metering deficits and persistent operational inefficiencies. In such a fragile environment, a leadership void at the apex regulatory level could stall critical decisions, delay ongoing reforms and further erode investor confidence in a sector in desperate need of stability.

    For Yusuf, the position of NERC Chairman cannot be treated casually or politicised. It requires an individual with deep knowledge of the sector, someone who has acquired technical understanding through years of engagement with electricity market dynamics. This, he stressed, must guide appointments at all levels—government, leadership, management and operations. “The sector has gone through a major transition which needs to be managed strategically and competently by operatives who understand the electricity sector,” he warned. “This is not a sector where the quality of personnel or the quality of governance can be compromised. We need to prioritise prompt appointments to fill vacant positions and build a sustainable succession pipeline within the Commission. These are essential for sound regulatory governance.”

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    Yusuf further emphasised that the electricity industry plays a strategic role in Nigeria’s quest to mobilise private-sector capital, both locally and internationally. Attracting such investments, he noted, demands a regulatory environment that inspires confidence. The calibre of leadership and staff at NERC, therefore, is central to building that trust. He urged the Presidency to critically evaluate all issues surrounding appointments, succession and leadership in the sector. “Nigeria is not short of competent people from every region who can serve effectively. What we must avoid is creating capacity or governance gaps in NERC. This matter requires urgent attention,” he added.

    While political debates continue at the National Assembly over NERC’s nominations, experts argue that the real crisis lies in the failure to appoint a substantive Chairman based strictly on merit. According to a critical stakeholder in the electricity space who requested anonymity, “The uproar in the Senate is a distraction. The real problem is the refusal to elevate people within the system who understand the regulatory environment and have the competence required for the job.”

    Indeed, since NERC’s creation 20 years ago, the Commission has repeatedly appointed individuals with little or no grounding in the electricity sector as chairmen. In most cases, these appointees have had to rely heavily on long-serving technocrats within the Commission to navigate its complex regulatory and market frameworks. This, industry watchers say, undermines regulatory efficiency and slows down reform implementation. This is why many experts insist that promoting seasoned professionals who have grown through the ranks at NERC would provide greater stability, continuity and technical competence. Over the years, however, appointments into NERC’s leadership have tilted more towards political considerations than technical merit—a pattern analysts warn is dangerous for a sector central to Nigeria’s economic survival.

    Even with the comprehensive reforms embedded in the Electricity Act 2023, several economists argue that NERC’s persistent leadership deficiencies remain a key reason for the electricity sector’s recurring failures. Without strong regulatory leadership, they insist, the Act’s intended benefits will remain largely unrealised. The Executive Director of PowerUp Nigeria, a consumer-rights and power-sector advocacy organisation, Adetayo Adegbemle, also expressed worry over the prolonged delay in confirming the Chairman-nominee. According to him, since August—when the President submitted the nominee’s name—the Senate has confirmed several other appointees, yet the NERC nomination remains suspended. “This is a dangerous precedent in a very critical sector,” he warned. “We still do not know whether the nominee will be confirmed or rejected. This uncertainty does not bode well for the health of the power sector.”

    Adegbemle stressed that the indecisive approach of government institutions toward such a sensitive regulatory appointment sends the wrong message to investors. In a sector where confidence and predictability are essential, he said, prolonged political delays can discourage investment and stall development. “This is not the time to play politics,” he cautioned. “We have not made significant progress in the sector, and leadership uncertainty only makes matters worse.”

    Past occupants and status of current Commissioners

    Complicating the ongoing leadership crisis at the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) is the sensitive issue of geopolitical balance. A review of historical appointments into the chairmanship shows clear disparities, with several geopolitical zones yet to produce a NERC Chairman in the Commission’s two-decade existence. The North-West has produced Sanusi Garba, who retired in June 2025 after serving as Chairman. The current nominee, Abdullahi Ramat Garba, also hails from the North-West (Kano State), though his confirmation remains stalled in the Senate.

    The South-South has produced two past chairmen — Prof. James Momoh from Edo State and Ransom Owan from Cross River State. The South-East has produced Dr. Sam Amadi from Imo State. However, the South-West, North-Central, and North-East have never produced a chairman. This imbalance has fuelled renewed calls for future leadership selections to reflect federal character and ensure a more equitable distribution of strategic national positions. Beyond the chairmanship vacuum, stakeholders are expressing alarm over emerging patterns of tenure violations among commissioners. Section 36 of the Electricity Act 2023 stipulates that the Chairman shall serve a single five-year term, while Commissioners serve four-year terms, with eligibility for reappointment where applicable. Yet, some commissioners appear to have exceeded these statutory limits — a development that could invalidate regulatory decisions taken during the extended period, should any operator legally challenge them.

    Among those whose tenure expired on December 1 is Dr. Musiliu Oseni (South-West), the Vice Chairman and Commissioner for Market, Competition & Rates, who bowed out after completing a full 10 years in office across two terms. Also leaving the Commission is Hajiya Aisha Mahmud (North-West), the Commissioner for Consumer Affairs, who has now concluded her first term. But the exits are far from over. A fresh wave of tenure expirations looms between now and early 2026, threatening to further thin out the Commission’s leadership bench. Those nearing the end of their terms include: Nathan Rogers Shatti (North-East), Commissioner for Finance & Management, now in his second and final term; Dafe Akpeneye (South-South), Commissioner for Legal, Licensing & Compliance, also rounding off his second and final term; Dr. Yusuf Ali (North-Central), Commissioner for Planning, Research & Strategy, completing his first term; and Engr. Chidi Ike (South-East), Commissioner for Engineering, Performance & Monitoring, likewise finishing his first term.

    The clustering of these expiration dates has amplified fears that the Commission may soon struggle to form a statutory quorum — a legal minimum required to make decisions, issue regulations, approve tariffs, process licences, and carry out other critical regulatory functions. Without timely replacements, stakeholders warn, NERC could be pushed into a state of operational paralysis at a time when the electricity sector can least afford it.

    System threatened?

    As multiple commissioners depart without new appointees confirmed to replace them, experts warn that Nigeria risks breaching the Electricity Act 2023. Crucially, the Act does not allow for acting appointments for these high-level positions, meaning that once vacated, the seats remain empty until fully appointed and confirmed replacements are in place. “This trend can lead to a regulatory shutdown, endangering electricity market operations, tariff reviews, licensing, consumer protection and market settlement,” a stakeholder cautioned.

    Their concerns are grounded in the law. Section 35(1) of the Electricity Act mandates a full board of seven commissioners, appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate, to constitute the Commission. Section 226 empowers these commissioners collectively to issue regulations and perform all statutory functions. Without the required number of commissioners, regulatory decisions — including crucial processes such as tariff adjustments, dispute resolution, market monitoring, and licensing — risk stalling. Section 33(3) strengthens the Commission’s mandate: “The Commission shall be the apex regulator of the NESI and shall be an independent body in the performance of its functions and exercise of its powers under this Act.” This independence is pivotal to investor confidence, sector governance, and market stability.

    Established under the Electric Power Sector Reform Act of 2005 — now replaced by the Electricity Act 2023 — NERC has long played a central role in Nigeria’s electricity sector. Its responsibilities span licensing participants across the value chain, developing technical standards and operating codes, defining consumer rights and obligations, and setting cost-reflective tariffs under frameworks such as the Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO). Over two decades, the Commission has contributed significantly to sector growth by expanding generation and network capacity through licensing, developing market rules, and driving reforms aimed at efficiency and transparency. These achievements have been anchored on rule-based governance and robust stakeholder engagement.

    However, experts warn that the current leadership gaps threaten to erode these gains. Without prompt, merit-based appointments and adherence to tenure provisions, NERC’s institutional progress — built painstakingly over 20 years — could collapse rapidly. The consensus among stakeholders is clear: restoring stability at NERC is not just an administrative necessity but an urgent national priority.

  • $46bn reserves, falling inflation signal CBN policy impact

    $46bn reserves, falling inflation signal CBN policy impact

    Nigeria’s inflation rate continues to cool, slipping to 16.05 per cent in October from 18.02 per cent in September 2025 — a trend economists say reflects the impact of sustained monetary policy easing and far-reaching reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The easing cycle has strengthened FX stability, boosted foreign reserves to $46 billion, and reinforced confidence in the macroeconomic environment. CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso has consistently highlighted how recent policy decisions have made the naira more competitive and improved Nigeria’s investment climate for global investors, reports Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) says ongoing policy easing and structural reforms are steadily filtering into the wider economy, helping to stabilise the naira, ease lending rates, and support the continued moderation of inflation. According to the bank, its recent monetary policy actions reflect a deliberate strategy to restore macroeconomic stability after years of fiscal and external pressures. It added that lower lending rates are emerging as one of the most visible outcomes of its policy trajectory, underscoring the leadership’s commitment to strengthening the financial system.

    The CBN noted that close alignment between fiscal and monetary policies has become indispensable at a time when technological innovation and digital finance are rapidly transforming the financial landscape. This coordination, it said, has enhanced the effectiveness of monetary tools and improved the transmission of policy decisions across sectors. At its 302nd meeting held on September 22 and 23, 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) trimmed the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points — from 27.5 per cent to 27 per cent. The move, the first rate cut since the tightening cycle began, signals a shift in policy direction as inflationary pressures begin to ease. The committee said the decision balances the need to support growth while maintaining stability in the foreign exchange market.

    Early data appears to validate this stance. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its October 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, revealed that inflation fell to 16.05 per cent from 18.02 per cent in September. It added that on a year-on-year basis, the October 2025 headline inflation rate was 17.82 per cent lower than the 33.88 per cent recorded in October 2024 — a significant moderation despite differences in the CPI base year.

     However, the NBS noted some upward movement on a month-on-month basis. The October 2025 inflation rate stood at 0.93 per cent, slightly higher than the 0.72 per cent recorded in September. This indicates that although prices continued to rise, the pace of increase was modest and broadly consistent with overall disinflation trends observed in the past months. Beyond inflation, other indicators are also pointing in a positive direction. The gradual strengthening of the naira, coupled with rising foreign reserves, suggests an improving economic outlook. These gains have contributed to renewed investor confidence and better stability in the foreign exchange (FX) markets.

    Reflecting this trend, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a 3.9 per cent growth rate for Nigeria in 2025, citing ongoing reforms, FX market improvements, and a stabilising macroeconomic environment. The CBN attributes much of the progress to the FX reforms introduced under the leadership of Governor Olayemi Cardoso, as well as new Federal Government policies targeting improved local production, reduced forex demand pressures, and lower domestic prices. Looking ahead, analysts say sustaining these gains will require the CBN to maintain its FX reforms while fiscal authorities intensify efforts to boost foreign exchange earnings, particularly from gas, oil, and non-oil exports.

    Exchange rate positions

     The naira has achieved a notable milestone, strengthening by 3.5 per cent against the U.S. dollar over the past ten months, reaching N1,450/$ at the parallel market. This recovery, though modest, signals a crucial shift, driven by coordinated adjustments to fiscal and monetary policies by the Federal Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

    The start of the year saw the naira trading at around N1,555/$. However, a brief period of instability saw the rate slip to a high of N1,597/$ by the end of April. The subsequent six months were marked by intense policy intervention. The naira briefly firmed up at N1,475/$ in October 2025 at the official market before settling at N1,500/$ at the parallel market yesterday, marking a 3.5 per cent gain from the January starting point.

    CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso says naira is turning the corner, and becoming more competitive in the international markets. He said Nigeria’s economy has been fully restructured and is now resilient, with huge buffers against global risks.

    He spoke during the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four (G-24) press briefing at the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington DC, US. Cardoso, who is the leader of the Nigeria delegation at the meetings, said the naira has equally emerged as a competitive currency, with the economy witnessing positive trade balances and large businesses moving from imports to export of locally produced goods and commodities.

    According to him, the positive economic indicators have combined to create resilient and strong buffers, keeping the economy in great shapes. Speaking on the impact of the trade tariffs on the domestic economy, the CBN boss said the tariffs are less of problems for the country. “And for us again, oil is basically the only commodity that was so exposed to the tariffs, and the impact of that was relatively modest. We now have a more competitive currency with the results that, for once, we have a situation where we have a positive balance of trade surplus, and we expect it to be six per cent in GDP for some time.

    “So basically, what is happening is a complete restructuring of the economy, where we are encouraging people to go into domestic production, and, of course, discouraging imports. And I think we were very fortunate, because a lot of the things that were needed to have been done, we did them much earlier, and as a result of that, we’re able to create resilience and buffers against potential shocks,” he stated.

    What other stakeholders are saying

    The Director-General, the West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM) Dr. Baba Musa, has called on government to ensure that 3.9 per cent growth for Nigeria in 2025 translate to decent jobs, rising incomes, improved productivity, and broader social welfare. In his report presented at the recently concluded 2025 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington DC, titled: “Nigeria’s Economic Outlook at a Turning Point”, he said as Nigeria moves further into 2025, Nigeria’s economic story is one of resilience, renewal, and strategic recalibration.

    Musa, who is also the President, Nigerian Economic Society, said Nigeria’s economic trajectory is increasingly encouraging with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.9 per cent in 2025, up from 3.5 per cent in 2024, with further acceleration to 4.2 per cent in 2026.

    Musa said Nigeria in 2025 is at a critical inflection point, cautiously optimistic yet structurally fragile. “Gains in growth, inflation moderation, and investment confidence mark important progress, but the work is far from complete. To sustain the recovery, Nigeria must maintain macroeconomic stability, deepen structural reforms, and ensure that growth translates into tangible improvements for citizens. Achieving this requires collaboration among government, private sector, civil society, and development partners,” he said.

    According to him, by committing to policy consistency, human capital investment and inclusive growth, Nigeria can consolidate its recovery and emerge as a more competitive, resilient, and equitable economy in the years ahead. “Globally, economies are grappling with slowing growth, projected at 2.7% in 2025 by the IMF for advanced economies, and heightened geopolitical risks that affect trade and investment. Against this backdrop, Nigeria has demonstrated remarkable determination. Domestically, inflationary pressures, infrastructure deficits, and unemployment persist, yet they now represent policy frontiers rather than defining constraints,” he said.

    Musa said recent policy measures, ranging from fiscal consolidation to targeted monetary adjustments, have laid the groundwork for a sustainable growth trajectory. “The real test, however, lies not only in achieving stability but in ensuring that it translates into tangible socio-economic outcomes: decent jobs, rising incomes, improved productivity, and broader social welfare. If Nigeria deepens reforms, invests strategically in human capital, and leverages its structural advantages, the country can achieve not only recovery but inclusive and durable economic transformation,” he said.

    He said the growth for Nigeria is underpinned by stronger oil production following operational improvements and policy reforms in the petroleum sector. “Recovery in services, particularly telecommunications, financial services, and transport, reflecting resilient domestic demand. Improved agricultural output, thanks to favourable weather patterns and government support for mechanisation and inputs,” he said.

    He said the recent GDP rebasing has also given a more accurate reflection of the economy, capturing growth in high-potential sectors such as digital services, modular refining, and the creative industries. This expanded view highlights opportunities for job creation, innovation, and revenue generation that were previously underappreciated. According to him, inflation remains elevated but is gradually moderating.

    “Headline inflation declined to 18.02 per cent in September 2025, down from 20.12 per cent in August, reflecting improved food supply, seasonal harvests, and targeted interventions in the energy market. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s interest rate cut, the first since 2020, signals a nuanced policy shift: a deliberate effort to balance price stability with growth and employment objectives. This approach is consistent with modern macroeconomic management, where inflation targeting is tempered by the need to stimulate investment and production in key sectors,” he said.

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    Speaking further, Musa said, “Investor sentiment is improving, illustrated by Shell’s approval of the HI Offshore Gas Project, expected to supply 350 million standard cubic feet of gas per day to Nigeria LNG. Economically, such projects deliver multiplier effects: they stimulate domestic suppliers, create high-skill and semi-skilled jobs, and strengthen Nigeria’s position as a reliable energy hub in Africa. They also enhance balance of payments stability, by promoting export-oriented production.”

    Moves to support economy

    The CBN under Cardoso is cultivating multiple FX sources to increase dollar inflows, boost dollar access to manufacturers and retail end users. From moves to improve diaspora remittances through new product development, the granting licenses to new International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), implementing a willing buyer-willing seller FX model, and enabling timely access to naira liquidity for IMTOs, the apex bank has simplified dollar-inflow channels for authorized dealers and other players in the value chain. The move has led to substantial accretion to the gross FX reserves and supported the stability of the naira.

    Given that FX inflows to the economy are strategic in achieving monetary and fiscal policy stability, the CBN under Cardoso puts in a lot of efforts in attracting more inflows into the economy. Diaspora remittances to Nigeria, estimated at $23 billion annually, remain a reliable source of forex to the domestic economy. There are also other sources and policies that are being explored by the apex bank to keep dollar inflows coming.

  • S&P upgrade shows impact of FX reforms, rising financial stability

    S&P upgrade shows impact of FX reforms, rising financial stability

    For many stakeholders, S&P Global Ratings’ upgrade reflects Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic indicators and the growing impact of financial sector reforms. It also signals confidence that ongoing monetary, economic and fiscal adjustments will drive growth and sustain foreign capital inflows. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s currency reforms—exchange rate unification and removal of FX trading restrictions—were key catalysts for the positive assessment, reports Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE

    S&P Global Ratings recently revised its outlook on Nigeria to “positive” from “stable,” while affirming the country’s “B-/B” sovereign credit rating. The shift reflects growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic direction, particularly its determination to confront persistent macroeconomic headwinds through bold foreign exchange (FX) and structural reforms—moves that have drawn global recognition for the nation’s economic managers.

    According to S&P, Nigeria’s monetary and fiscal authorities have taken meaningful steps to restore stability, improve transparency, and rebuild market trust. “The monetary, economic, and fiscal reforms being implemented by Nigerian authorities will yield positive benefits over the medium term,” the agency said. This places Nigeria in a stronger position to potentially secure an upgraded credit rating if ongoing reforms continue delivering results.

    S&P’s assessment aligns with those of other major rating agencies. In May, Moody’s upgraded Nigeria by one notch to “B3” from “Caa1,” citing notable improvements in external liquidity and fiscal management. More recently, Fitch Ratings maintained its “B” rating with a stable outlook, acknowledging progress in Nigeria’s FX market reforms. Across the board, these agencies highlight the Central Bank of Nigeria’s FX liberalisation measures as central to stabilising the macroeconomic environment and curbing inflationary pressures.

    Welcoming S&P’s latest outlook revision, CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso said the development reflects the steady progress made in restoring confidence in Nigeria’s financial system. Speaking at a strategic session in Abuja, he noted that S&P’s positive stance demonstrates renewed confidence in the country’s economic recovery trajectory. According to him, the agency’s view suggests Nigeria is now seen as more capable of strengthening its financial position in the years ahead.

    “This is encouraging news for the country. It shows that our efforts to restore stability, strengthen governance frameworks, and rebuild trust in the financial system are being recognised internationally,” Cardoso said. He emphasised that Nigeria’s commitment to disciplined monetary policy, exchange rate unification, and transparency in market operations has played a major role in shaping these improved global perceptions.

    The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, also hailed the upgrade, calling it proof that the difficult but necessary reforms adopted by the administration are gaining international traction. “This development is yet another clear signal that the reforms we are undertaking are earning strong recognition from respected global institutions,” Edun stated. He reiterated that Nigeria remains committed to measures that improve liquidity, stimulate investment, and strengthen economic resilience.

    The private sector has also responded positively. President of the Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria, Dr. Aminu Gwadabe, applauded the rating revision, noting that FX reforms have significantly supported exchange rate stability and improved confidence in the market. Several analysts similarly described the S&P outlook as “a significant step forward in restoring investor trust and economic stability,” arguing that improved creditworthiness could unlock new opportunities across various sectors.

    Since assuming office in October 2023, Governor Cardoso has prioritised rebuilding Nigeria’s economic buffers and enhancing resilience. Key CBN policies—such as unifying exchange rates, clearing more than $7 billion in FX backlog, and reducing market interventions—have encouraged foreign investment inflows and positioned Nigeria as a more attractive investment destination. Institutions including the World Bank have praised these reforms as bold steps toward long-term macroeconomic sustainability.

    The impact is becoming evident in financial markets. Nigeria’s sovereign risk premium has fallen to its lowest level since January 2020, reversing the surge that accompanied the pandemic and subsequent economic turbulence. Improved investor sentiment has also helped the country re-enter the international debt market. Last week, Nigeria successfully raised $2.35 billion through a Eurobond issuance to support financing of the 2025 budget, even as the government continues to tap domestic sources to bridge fiscal gaps.

    Analysts caution, however, that sustaining these gains requires consistent implementation, effective coordination across government agencies, and vigilance against external shocks such as global oil price fluctuations. Nevertheless, with reforms gaining momentum and global recognition mounting, Nigeria appears to be charting a more stable and promising economic path.

    Feedback from other ratings agencies

    Recent assessments by major global rating agencies indicate a steady improvement in Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators and growing confidence in the country’s reform agenda. These independent evaluations reflect a broadening optimism about the direction of Nigeria’s monetary and fiscal policies. Moody’s Investors Service recently upgraded Nigeria’s issuer ratings from Caa1 to B3 with a stable outlook, citing significant improvements in the country’s external accounts and fiscal position. The move signals increasing optimism about Nigeria’s economic prospects and the credibility of its reform efforts. Moody’s noted that it revised Nigeria’s outlook to stable because it expects the progress made on the external and fiscal fronts to continue, albeit more slowly if oil prices soften.

    In its statement, Moody’s was explicit about the impact of policy reforms, especially in the FX market. It highlighted the “recent overhaul of Nigeria’s foreign exchange management framework,” describing it as a major shift that has strengthened the balance of payments and boosted the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) external reserves. The agency added that inflationary risks—previously aggravated by policy transitions such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate liberalisation—are gradually easing. According to Moody’s, inflation and domestic borrowing costs are showing early signs of moderation, reinforcing confidence that the current policy direction is stabilising the economy.

    “The stable outlook reflects our expectations that external and fiscal improvements will decelerate but will not reverse entirely,” the agency said, emphasising that Nigeria remains on a firmer economic footing than before the reforms.

    Before Moody’s upgrade, Fitch Ratings had already raised Nigeria’s credit rating from B- to B, maintaining a stable outlook. For many stakeholders who have closely monitored Nigeria’s reform path, Fitch’s rating revision did not come as a surprise. The CBN’s aggressive reforms—including exchange rate unification to curb market arbitrage, the introduction of an electronic FX matching platform, the rollout of a new FX code to improve transparency, and consistent monetary policy tightening to tame inflation—have signalled a clear commitment to macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth.

    Fitch’s latest rating also moved Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) from negative to stable, an important shift that enhances Nigeria’s attractiveness to foreign investors. With a more favourable credit profile, Nigeria stands a better chance of borrowing at lower interest rates on international markets while also boosting investor confidence at home. The agency commended the government for its decisive reforms since June 2023, when Nigeria embraced more orthodox economic policies. Fitch highlighted the liberalisation of the FX market, tighter monetary policy, and strong actions to end deficit monetisation and fuel subsidies as reforms that have enhanced policy coherence and credibility. According to the agency, these measures have reduced economic distortions, eased near-term macroeconomic risks, and improved Nigeria’s resilience amid domestic challenges and global uncertainties.

    Reacting to Moody’s decision, President Bola Tinubu described the upgrade of Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer rating as a welcome affirmation of the country’s economic direction. He noted that the development represents a significant vote of confidence from global partners and reflects the progress made under his administration’s reform agenda. “This upgrade signals to global investors and partners that Nigeria is back on a path of responsibility, reform, and renewed credibility,” the President said. He reaffirmed the government’s commitment to prudent economic management, fiscal transparency, and inclusive growth, adding that the rating underscores progress in stabilising the macroeconomic environment, improving debt sustainability, and unlocking Nigeria’s long-term economic potential.

    An analyst, Dr. Wahab Balogun, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Ambosit Capital Managers, noted that Nigeria’s improved credit ratings offer a critical gateway for the country to re-engage the international capital markets on more favourable terms. A stronger rating, he explained, could lower debt-servicing costs and create additional fiscal space for development projects—an essential advantage for a country seeking to expand infrastructure and stimulate broad-based growth.

    According to him, the stable outlook assigned by Moody’s means Nigeria is not at risk of an immediate downgrade or upgrade, signalling that the reforms already implemented are viewed as credible and broadly effective. “It also reinforces the view that the government’s policy direction is yielding early positive results, though sustained implementation will be necessary to achieve long-term benefits,” he said.

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    Balogun further noted that the dual upgrades from Fitch and Moody’s have been interpreted within financial and investment circles as a sign of Nigeria’s renewed discipline in economic management and a signal of the country’s re-emergence as a responsible player in global finance. As Nigeria intensifies efforts to attract private capital—both domestic and foreign—to advance its development priorities, these improved ratings could strengthen investor confidence and support long-term ambitions in economic diversification, infrastructure expansion, and inclusive growth.

    Why the ratings upgrade happened

    A major factor behind the ratings upgrades is the series of transparency-driven reforms introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). One of the most significant was the launch of the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Code (FX Code) in Abuja, an initiative designed to instill discipline, integrity, and accountability in the FX market. Since its introduction, the FX Code has contributed to greater stability of the naira across both official and parallel market windows.

    Cardoso, who unveiled the FX Code, underscored its central pillars: integrity, fairness, transparency, and efficiency. He explained that the Code is anchored on six core principles—ethics, governance, execution, information sharing, risk management and compliance, and confirmation and settlement processes. These principles align with global standards, while also addressing Nigeria’s specific market challenges. According to Cardoso, the FX Code represents “a decisive step forward, setting clear and enforceable standards for ethical conduct, transparency, and good governance in our foreign exchange market.” He stressed that under the CBN Act of 2007 and the BOFIA Act of 2020, violations would attract penalties and administrative sanctions. “The era of opaque practices is over. The FX Code marks a new era of compliance and accountability,” he said.

    The CBN also noted that while the FX Code is comprehensive, it is not meant to be exhaustive. Instead, it forms part of a broader reform agenda aimed at strengthening compliance across the financial sector. Cardoso highlighted that 2024 marked a turning point, with structural reforms designed to move the naira toward a more freely determined market rate and ease volatility by removing persistent distortions. The FX Code comprises six guiding principles supported by 52 sub-principles, which the CBN intends to use as a market-wide standard for all participating institutions. Backed by the legal authority of the CBN Act 2007 and BOFIA 2020, the Code functions as an enforceable directive that all foreign exchange market participants must adhere to.

    In addition to the FX Code, the apex bank introduced the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS)—a technology-driven mechanism used in other economies to enhance market efficiency. EFEMS is expected to strengthen price discovery, improve transparency, and further support ongoing FX reforms aimed at stabilising Nigeria’s currency and restoring investor confidence.

  • Can the N1tr real estate fund boost affordable housing?

    Can the N1tr real estate fund boost affordable housing?

    In a landmark move to tackle Nigeria’s housing deficit, the Federal Government has listed its N1 trillion Ministry of Finance Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF) on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX). The initiative aims to expand access to affordable mortgages with long tenures and lower interest rates, unlock value from public real estate assets, stimulate economic growth and encourage private-sector participation, offering a market-driven approach to making homeownership more attainable for Nigerians, reports OKWY IROEGBU-CHIKEZIE

    The Federal Government has taken a major step towards tackling Nigeria’s housing deficit by listing its N1 trillion real estate investment fund on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX). The Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF) was formally listed on Tuesday under the leadership of the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Olawale Edun.

    The initiative is designed to expand access to affordable mortgages, offering repayment terms of up to 25 years at significantly lower interest rates than current commercial lending rates. According to Edun, the fund will unlock value from public real estate assets while creating a transparent, market-driven platform for housing investment. “This scheme is aimed at bridging part of the 22 million-unit housing deficit, generating employment, stimulating economic growth, and encouraging private-sector participation in housing construction,” Edun explained. He further highlighted that long-term investors would benefit from market-based returns while helping make homeownership accessible to more Nigerians.

    Edun elaborated on the financial mechanism underpinning the fund, noting: “When I say low-cost, we are talking about low double digits, maybe 11 or 12 per cent, potentially lower depending on market conditions. This will be achieved by blending long-term savings from life insurance companies, pension funds, and other savers with low-cost government funding available at one per cent for up to 40 years. The result is mortgages at affordable rates with tenures of 20 years or more.”

    He stressed that the structure could relieve Nigerians from the burden of commercial mortgage rates that often exceed 30 per cent with short repayment periods. “With this fund, repayment rates could drop to around 10 per cent, giving borrowers longer tenures and much-needed financial breathing room,” he said.

    Despite the promise of the initiative, some experts and stakeholders have called for interest rates in the single digits to ensure genuine affordability for the average Nigerian. Industry players caution that the current 12 per cent rate may limit the scheme’s impact, potentially resulting in mortgages that are still out of reach for many and falling short of addressing the broader housing crisis. Nonetheless, the MREIF listing is seen as a significant milestone in Nigeria’s pursuit of sustainable housing solutions, offering a potential blueprint for mobilising private and public investments to meet the country’s growing housing needs.

    One expert, who spoke to The Nation on condition of anonymity, questioned how the government arrived at the proposed 12 per cent interest rate for the newly listed real estate investment fund. He argued that, given current housing costs, the mortgage system, as structured, does little to benefit the target population. “A combination of single-digit interest rates and some form of housing subsidy is the only way to make homes truly accessible for low-income earners,” he insisted.

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    Festus Adedayo, Executive Director of the Housing Development Advocacy Network (HDAN), acknowledged that a single-digit rate would have been ideal but noted that Nigeria’s current economic realities make this difficult. “Starting at 12 per cent is manageable, considering the fiscal and economic challenges the country faces,” he said. Adedayo also emphasised the importance of using locally produced building materials to lower construction costs and urged the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to play a more active role in the housing and mortgage sector. He further stressed that government support for the Family Homes Fund (FHF) and the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) is crucial to promote social housing and reach citizens who may not even afford a 12 per cent mortgage.

    From a practical standpoint, Adewunmi Okupe, Managing Director of Ace Hi-Teck Construction Co., pointed out that a salaried worker earning N360,000 per month would struggle to service a mortgage at 12 per cent interest. He proposed a more realistic rate between four and six per cent, arguing that affordable housing must be paired with affordable financing. Using the example of a N12 million home, Okupe calculated that interest alone at 12 per cent would amount to N1.44 million annually, or N120,000 monthly—an unfeasible figure for the average Nigerian worker.

    Dr. Niyi Ade, another industry observer, agreed that while 12 per cent improves affordability compared to commercial rates exceeding 30 per cent, it still excludes those at the lowest economic levels. He suggested that interventions should go beyond interest rates to include the promotion of cost-effective construction methods and accessible building materials. However, some experts maintain that 12 per cent is a step in the right direction. Compared to prevailing commercial rates, which often surpass 30 per cent, the new rate provides significant relief for middle-income earners. While single-digit rates would be preferable, a 12 per cent starting point is viewed as a realistic and rewarding approach given the current Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) of 27.5 per cent.

    Estate surveyor and valuer Femi Oyedele has dismissed the prospect of single-digit mortgage interest rates in Nigeria, citing prevailing economic conditions and cultural factors as major constraints. He argued that achieving such rates is unlikely within the next decade. Oyedele also clarified that the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) is not a mortgage bank but a commercial entity established to facilitate financial transactions, rather than provide structured mortgage financing. He referenced a similar N250 billion initiative announced in late 2024, which aimed to stimulate growth in the housing sector but was not designed as an affordable mortgage fund. According to Oyedele, the current N1 trillion Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF) at 12 per cent interest functions more as a low-interest commercial loan than a traditional mortgage. True mortgage financing, he explained, requires structured contributions from prospective homeowners rather than direct government provision.

    A statement jointly signed by the President and Executive Secretary/CEO of the Mortgage Banking Association of Nigeria (MBAN), Ebliate MAC-Yoroki and Adedeji Ajadi, outlined that the N250 billion MREIF Fund is structured to attract long-term private sector and capital market investments from Pension Fund Operators and Life Insurance Companies. These investments are blended with low-cost seed funding provided by the government. “MBAN encourages all Nigerians to embrace this opportunity to access affordable mortgages, fulfil their dreams of homeownership, and contribute to narrowing the housing gap,” the statement read. MBAN member mortgage banks and brokerage firms are positioned to facilitate the process, ensuring the benefits of the fund reach those most in need.

    The strategic intervention by the Federal Executive Council (FEC), under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, underscores a strong commitment to addressing Nigeria’s housing deficit while revitalising the mortgage banking subsector. The MREIF initiative represents a significant step toward making homeownership more attainable for Nigerians, even as discussions about optimal interest rates and accessibility continue.

    The innovative financing model is poised to act as a catalyst for affordable homeownership in Nigeria, offering mortgages at interest rates approaching the single digits, with repayment tenures of up to 20 years. This structure provides much-needed relief to prospective homeowners who have long been constrained by high interest rates and affordability challenges. The initiative aligns seamlessly with the Federal Government’s strategic objective of addressing the country’s significant housing deficit. By facilitating easier access to mortgages, it is expected to stimulate economic growth, create jobs across the mortgage banking sector, and energise the broader real estate and construction industries.

    This development highlights the crucial role of public-private collaboration in tackling national challenges like affordable housing. The Mortgage Banking Association of Nigeria (MBAN) remains committed to working closely with the Federal Government and key stakeholders to ensure sustainable, market-driven housing solutions for Nigerians.

    Dr. Armstrong Takang, Managing Director of the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI), described the project as a landmark step toward promoting homeownership. He noted that mortgage rates under the fund will not exceed 12 per cent, with targets to reduce them below 10 per cent in future phases. “The savings from these low-cost funds are being passed directly to Nigerians through reduced interest rates on mortgages,” he said.

    The initiative is being implemented in partnership with Family Homes Funds Limited (FHFL) and ARM Investment Managers, who will oversee operations. FHFL has additionally secured a credit line from the African Development Bank (AfDB) to further lower financing costs. Through the listing on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), the Federal Government aims to attract private and institutional investors, mobilize long-term capital, and deepen Nigeria’s housing finance ecosystem. The move also reflects a broader shift from direct government spending toward market-based, socially impactful investments designed to promote sustainable development and long-term economic growth.

    Under the programme, civil servants and other eligible Nigerians can access mortgage loans with just a 10 per cent equity contribution, significantly lowering the entry barrier to homeownership. The government has assured that the Ministry of Finance Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF) will enhance transparency and investor confidence by adhering to the disclosure and reporting standards of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX).

    For Ngozi Chukwu, Acting Managing Director of Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank (ITMB), the introduction of near–single-digit mortgage loans through MREIF is a commendable “game changer.” However, she stressed that more needs to be done, noting that mortgage banking contributes less than one per cent to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), compared with 20–40 per cent in developed economies. Chukwu emphasised the need for stronger policy support and access to low-cost, long-term funds to deepen mortgage penetration and make homeownership a reality for more Nigerians. “The government must simplify and reduce the cost of land titling and registration. The current manual process is slow, expensive, and discourages both lenders and borrowers,” she said. She also called for a digital, transparent land registry to accelerate title perfection, enhance mortgage security, and attract greater private investment. Chukwu suggested that government provision of land and basic infrastructure—roads, water, electricity—while leaving development to the private sector could cut project costs by up to 50 per cent. Strengthening the capacity of the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN) would also expand access to affordable mortgages.

    Chairman of the MOFI Board, Shamsuddeen Usman, described MREIF as a “landmark achievement” in promoting sustainable homeownership, while the National Coordinator of the programme, Sani Yakubu, highlighted its focus on increasing mortgage penetration with active private-sector leadership. Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Agama Emomotimi, noted the initiative’s critical role in advancing financial inclusion and leveraging the capital market for national development. ARM Investment Managers, who oversee the fund, described MREIF as a transparent, scalable, and private-sector-led approach, marking a significant departure from previous housing interventions and offering a more sustainable path toward closing Nigeria’s housing gap.

  • How FX reforms boosted investors’ demand for Nigeria’s $2.25b Eurobond issuance

    How FX reforms boosted investors’ demand for Nigeria’s $2.25b Eurobond issuance

    Nigeria successfully raised $2.25 billion through a dual-tranche Eurobond issuance last week, marking a major return to international capital markets. The 10-year and 20-year bonds, priced at 8.625 per cent and 9.125 per cent respectively, were oversubscribed, underscoring strong investor confidence in Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary reforms. Analysts say renewed appetite for Nigerian debt is driven by the Central Bank’s FX reforms, improved fiscal transparency and rising market confidence, reports Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE

    Global investors are scrambling for Nigerian assets as the impact of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) financial sector reforms continues to reverberate across key segments of the economy. Nigeria is once again earning the confidence of the international investment community, as reflected in the successful issuance of a $2.25 billion dual-tranche Eurobond last week. The Eurobonds, maturing in 2036 and 2046, represent the largest-ever orderbook achieved by the country — a testament to strong investor confidence in Nigeria’s macroeconomic policies and fiscal management. The 10-year, $1.25 billion bond due in 2036 was priced at a coupon of 8.6308 percent, while the 20-year, $1.10 billion note maturing in 2046 carried a coupon of 9.1297 percent.

    According to a statement from the Debt Management Office (DMO), the transaction attracted orders exceeding $13 billion, reflecting broad-based demand from investors across multiple jurisdictions — including the United Kingdom, North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Domestic investors also participated in the Eurobond offer, signalling strong local confidence in the government’s reform agenda. Prior to the issuance, Nigeria’s investment outlook had improved significantly, drawing positive assessments from global analysts and further strengthening the country’s return to the international capital markets.

    “Nigeria appears to be back in business as long-awaited economic reforms take shape,” said Emre Akcakmak, portfolio manager at East Capital. Key measures include improved currency liquidity, leeway for investors to repatriate their profit, and the stable naira. “We feel the Central Bank of Nigeria will continue to stem any sharp appreciation of the naira to limit profit taking from the fast money community,” Akcakmak said earlier.

    “Portfolio inflows have likely been supported by improved confidence amid key structural reforms, better FX market functioning and moderating dollar-naira volatility, as well as the still-robust nominal yield buffer,” said Samir Gadio, head of Africa strategy at Standard Chartered Plc told Bloomberg. “Besides, Nigeria’s local market is seen as less correlated with global risk conditions than more liquid EM peers,” he added.

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    The reforms takeoff point

    The CBN had embarked on a series of bold reforms to attract more foreign capital to the economy, achieve price and exchange rate stability. In 2023, the new administration and the CBN-led by its Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, liberalised the foreign exchange market, stopped central bank financing of the fiscal deficit, and reformed fuel subsidies. The government also strengthened revenue collection and took strategic steps to reduce surging inflation rate. Since these reforms were implemented, international reserves have increased, and people can now access foreign exchange in the official market.

    Besides, Nigeria successfully returned to international capital markets last December and was recently upgraded by rating agencies. A new domestic, private refinery is positioning Nigeria up the value chain in a fully deregulated market. CBN’s policies, including the currency reforms, led to investment inflows from abroad, and reduced interventions in the domestic forex market. The unification of exchange rates and the clearing of over $7 billion FX backlog raised the country’s investment outlook, with multilateral organisations like the World Bank describing it as bold intervention to improve the economy’s sustainability in the long run.

    Also, Nigeria’s sovereign risk spread has fallen to the lowest level since January 2020, erasing the premium accumulated during the pandemic and subsequent strain on its economy. All these are deliberate efforts to woo investors and sustain capital inflows to the economy. In its efforts to tame inflation, the CBN recently hosted the Monetary Policy Forum 2025, featuring fiscal authorities, legislative, private sector, development partners, subject-matter experts, and scholars with the theme: “Managing the Disinflation Process.” The forum is a major push to improve monetary policy communication, foster dialogue, and collaborate on critical issues shaping monetary policy.

    During the event, Cardoso explained that the apex bank’s focus is to sustain price stability, the planned transition to an inflation-targeting framework, and strategies to restore purchasing power and ease economic hardship. He said the apex bank is continuing its disciplined approach to monetary policy, aimed at curbing inflation and stabilising the economy. The CBN boss reiterated that the goal of the CBN is to ensure that monetary policy remains forward-looking, adaptive and resilient.

    In addressing our economic challenges, collaboration is key. “Managing disinflation amidst persistent shocks requires not only robust policies but also coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities to anchor expectations and maintain investor confidence. Our focus must remain on price stability, the planned transition to an inflation-targeting framework, and strategies to restore purchasing power and ease economic hardship,” Cardoso said.

    The CBN also focused on strengthening the banking sector, introducing new minimum capital requirements for banks (effective March 2026) to ensure resilience and position Nigeria’s banking industry for a $1 trillion economy. These reforms and developments reflect the Bank’s commitment to creating an enabling environment for inclusive economic development.

    However, achieving macroeconomic stability requires sustained vigilance and a proactive monetary policy stance. “As we shift from unorthodox to orthodox monetary policy, the CBN remains committed to restoring confidence, strengthening policy credibility, and staying focused on its core mandate of price stability,” Cardoso stated.

    Continuing, he said monetary policy easing became necessary following a review of macroeconomic developments. According to him, the decision by the MPC to ease the policy stance was made in the light of improving inflation trends. “The committee’s decision to lower the monetary policy rate was predicated on the sustained disinflation recorded in the past five months, projections of declining inflation for the rest of 2025 and the need to support economic recovery efforts,” Cardoso said.

    Assessing positive market reactions

     The naira appreciated last week as Nigeria’s external reserves climbed toward a seven-year high of $46.07 billion, following the successful issuance of Eurobonds. The last time the economy recorded a comparable reserve level was on August 24, 2018, when it stood at $46.09 billion. Data from the CBN showed the naira closing at N1,436.74, gaining N1.75 or 0.12 per cent from N1,438.49 quoted at the NFEM.

    In a note to investors, Dr. Ifeanyi Uba, Head of Investment Research at Comercio Partners Limited, said demand for Nigerian debt has been boosted by ongoing reforms, including fuel subsidy removal and naira devaluation, which, though painful, have improved fiscal transparency and investor confidence. “With emerging market governments issuing nearly $240 billion in debt so far this year, surpassing even pandemic-era levels, Nigeria’s return underscores both the renewed investor hunt for yield and a sign that African frontier economies may once again diversify funding sources amid more favorable global conditions,” he said.

    Other analysts at Comercio Partners described the Eurobond issuance as a strong reaffirmation of investor confidence despite a tense global geopolitical backdrop. They noted that while the inflows will bolster reserves, provide fiscal breathing room, and strengthen Nigeria’s capacity to meet short-term obligations, the move also increases exposure to foreign exchange risk and heightens interest burdens in hard currency. They added that with the Central Bank’s ongoing efforts to unify the FX market and clear outstanding backlogs, actions that have temporarily restored investor confidence, maintaining currency stability will remain critical to sustaining these gains.

    Adebowale Funmi, head of Research at Parthian Securities, said Nigeria’s Eurobond oversubscription by over 400 per cent reflects strong investor confidence in the country’s economic outlook. This renewed optimism is largely driven by ongoing reforms and Nigeria’s recent removal from the FATF grey list, both of which have improved the country’s credibility and perception in global markets.

    The Eurobond Issuance details

    Nigeria’s latest $2.35 billion Eurobond issuance, which includes 10-year and 20-year tranches, marked the largest orderbook in the country’s history, highlighting renewed investor confidence in its macroeconomic and fiscal reforms. The Debt Management Office (DMO) said the debt issuance attracted orders exceeding $13 billion from investors across the United Kingdom, North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. The 10-year $1.25 billion bond maturing in 2036 was priced at a coupon of 8.6308 percent, while the 20-year $1.10 billion note due in 2046 carried a coupon of 9.1297 per cent.

    The DMO also disclosed that Nigerian investors participated in the offer, underscoring domestic support for the government’s reform agenda. The net proceeds from the Eurobond issuance would be used to finance the 2025 fiscal deficit and support the government’s other financing needs. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said the huge success recorded by the issue was an expression of continued investor confidence in the country’s sound macro-economic policy framework and prudent fiscal and monetary management.

    He said: “We are delighted by the strong investor confidence demonstrated in our country and our reform agenda. This development reaffirms Nigeria’s position as a recognised and credible participant in the global capital market.”

    Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, said the record subscription was an indication of the global confidence in the country’s macroeconomic outlook. “This successful market access demonstrates the international community’s continued confidence in Nigeria’s reform trajectory and our commitment to sustainable, inclusive growth,” Edun said.

    Director General, Debt Management Office (DMO), Patience Oniha, said the issuance attracted demand from a combination of fund managers, insurance and pension funds, hedge funds, banks and other financial institutions, underlining the country’s strong support base across geography and investor class. She said: “Nigeria’s ability to access the Eurobond Market to raise long term funding needed to support the growth agenda of President Tinubu is a major achievement for Nigeria and is consistent with the DMO’s objectives of supporting development and diversifying funding sources.” She explained that the notes will be admitted to the official list of the UK Listing Authority and available to trade on the London Stock Exchange’s regulated market, the FMDQ Securities Exchange Limited and the Nigerian Exchange Limited.

    Other analysts said the development reflects growing investor confidence in the government’s economic management. “It means one thing, confidence in the Nigerian government,” he said. “The strong subscription to the Eurobond shows that confidence is returning. This is just the beginning, and it demonstrates that things are improving. We are already seeing the results, GDP is growing, exchange rate is stable, and interest rates are coming down. These positive indicators show that the economy is moving in the right direction,” they said.

    The Eurobonds will be listed on the London Stock Exchange’s regulated market, the FMDQ Securities Exchange Limited, and the Nigerian Exchange Limited. Market participants say the listing is expected to enhance liquidity and attract a diverse investor base, reinforcing Nigeria’s status in the global bond market. Joint book-runners for the Eurobond issuance included Chapel Hill Denham, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Standard Chartered Bank, while FSDH Merchant Bank Limited served as financial adviser.

  • Winners, losers in Anambra 2025 governorship election

    Winners, losers in Anambra 2025 governorship election

    Based on the official results declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the clear winner of the election is Governor Chukwuma Soludo and his party, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). Beyond them, several other key stakeholders can also be considered winners for their roles in the electoral process.

    Soludo:

    As the declared winner, Governor Soludo is the principal beneficiary of the exercise. It was a decisive and well-earned victory. During the campaign, he worked hard to sell his vision to the people and won in all 21 local government areas, securing 422,664 votes. His closest rival, Nicholas Ukachukwu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), polled 99,445 votes — a gap of more than 320,000 votes.

    This result cements Soludo’s electoral legitimacy and gives him a clear mandate to drive his agenda without the shadow of a disputed outcome. It also strengthens his political standing, both in Anambra and nationally, providing leverage in governance, negotiations with the federal authorities, and in shaping the political narrative of the Southeast.

    The APGA:

    The APGA, the platform on which Soludo contested, also emerges stronger. The party retains control of the state, reinforcing its image as a regional force with deep roots. Even though its founder, Chukwuemeka Odimegwu-Ojukwu, passed away in 2011 and Peter Obi, the first governor elected under the party, later left over disagreements with his successor, the APGA has continued to hold sway in Anambra.

    Since 2006, the party has produced every governor of the state — Peter Obi (2006–2014), Virginia Etiaba (2006–2007), Willie Obiano (2014–2022), and now Soludo, who has just secured a fresh term. This enduring control confirms the party’s organisational depth and its ability to connect with voters at the grassroots.

    The latest victory reaffirms the APGA’s dominance in the state and validates its structure and brand. It shows that, despite internal splits and the rise of newer political movements, the APGA remains a powerful symbol of identity and continuity in Anambra politics.

    INEC and Amupitan:

    INEC and its new chairman, Professor Joash Amupitan, also count as winners. A smooth and credible election, especially in a politically sensitive region, boosts public confidence in the commission and its leadership. Unlike in the past, when logistical failures marred elections, this exercise began on time in nearly all parts of the state.

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    Reports indicate significant improvements in logistics and technology. While there were some cases of vote-buying and minor irregularities, the process was largely peaceful and efficient. About 49 per cent of polling units had INEC officials present by 7:30 a.m., compared to 28 per cent in 2021 — a major improvement.

    The BVAS devices functioned well, with only minor, quickly resolved glitches. Result uploads to the IReV portal were highly successful: INEC published results from 5,668 out of 5,720 polling units, a 99.09 per cent success rate.

    In short, the election marked progress in operational efficiency and transparency. The fact that results were declared and accepted without major disruption shows that INEC can conduct credible elections even in challenging contexts.

    The people:

    Voters and residents of Anambra are winners too, both practically and symbolically. A decisive outcome allows governance to move forward rather than being stuck in post-election disputes. Those who turned out to vote fulfilled their civic duty and expect their votes to count.

    On a symbolic level, an election that produces a broadly accepted result reinforces faith in the democratic process. It reminds citizens that their participation matters.

    Voter turnout roughly doubled from 10 per cent in 2021 to about 22 per cent this time — still low in absolute terms but a marked improvement. The 2021 poll took place under the shadow of insecurity and threats from non-state actors. This time, the security environment was much better. Some areas that were once no-go zones witnessed rallies and a peaceful voting day.

    According to groups such as Yiaga Africa, the main factor limiting turnout was voter apathy, driven by weak communication from political parties and a sense of disconnection among citizens. Even so, the improved environment and higher participation reflect a gradual restoration of trust.

    Tinubu and the FG:

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the Federal Government also stand to gain from the outcome. Tinubu appointed the new INEC chairman, whose first major test was handled successfully. A well-conducted election in a key state reduces the risk of political tension and strengthens the administration’s claims to uphold democratic norms.

    The president also earned credit for restraint. He did not impose a candidate on his party or interfere in the process, allowing INEC to operate independently. The result helps counter fears that Nigeria is drifting toward a one-party system. It also gives the Federal Government space to focus on governance rather than election-related disputes.

    Security agencies:

    The security agencies — police, military, and other law enforcement units — played their part effectively. Their presence ensured a peaceful election, with only isolated incidents reported despite earlier fears of violence.

    This performance strengthens their institutional reputation. In a political culture where elections can turn violent, maintaining peace enhances public confidence and shows that security forces can support, rather than disrupt, democracy.

    Democracy:

    Ultimately, democracy itself gained from the Anambra election. The process demonstrated that credible elections are still possible and that democratic institutions can function when given the space to do so.

    Observers agreed that the outcome reflected the will of voters and met the minimum standard of credibility. The use of BVAS and IReV technology improved transparency and reduced opportunities for manipulation.

    After the controversies that followed the 2023 general elections, a process that was largely transparent and technically sound offers a measure of reassurance. It suggests that reforms introduced by INEC are beginning to take root and that progress, while slow, is real.

    Conclusion:

    Soludo’s victory in Anambra touches several layers of Nigeria’s political ecosystem. It rewards the individual winner, strengthens his party, validates the electoral body, re-engages voters, and reinforces national stability. The security agencies earned credit for professionalism, while the Federal Government benefits from the perception of a fair contest.

    Above all, the election serves as a reminder that credible contests and active civic participation still matter. In a time of widespread cynicism, Anambra’s election stands as a small but important win for Nigerian democracy.

    Losers

    • By Emmanuel Oladesu, Deputy Editor

    Obi:

    The greatest loser in the exercise is Peter Obi, former governor and 2023 presidential aspirant of the Labour Party (LP). The visioner of the noisy, garulous and ‘structureless Obedient Movement’ lost his polling booth, underscoring his lack of popularity and loss of relevance at home.

    In the last general election, he proved his meetle, winning over 90 percent of the votes as presidential candidate in the state. However, after the poll, his party lost steam, no thanks to the protacted leadership crisis that hit the platform.

    Apart from being a former governor, Obi was also a vice presidential candidate on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2019. He was always fond of defecting from one party to the other. Although he made a feeble appearance during the campaigns, it never resonated with the people. Obi could not match the aura, intellect, pedigree, and charisma of Prof. Charles Chukwuma Soludo on the podium. The campaign train of the governor was simply electrifying.

    What the outcome of the weekend election has shown is that Obi’s political structure has been rattled and dismantled, and this portends a danger to his future ambition to rule the country. He has been demystified at home.

    Moghalu:

    George Moghalu of the LP is a serial contestant and an impatient politician. He is never strategic. Nobody plans to fail, but many fail to plan adequately, thereby boxing themselves to failure. Despite being a brilliant person, that quality never showed in the result of the election.

    It may be that the LP candidate miscalculated. Moghalu had wanted to build on the Obi’s mysterious success in 2023, oblivious of the dynamics of contemporary politics. He crashed, losing his deposit despite the bravado. Even, voters at his polling booth turned their backs at him.

    Some people believe that Moghalu betrayed the All Progressives Congress (APC), which gave him an opportunity to serve the country as head of the Nigerian Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA). He left the APC for LP when the Abure and Usman factions were locked in a battle of supremacy.  He had hoped to ride to power on the wing of Obi, who could not settle the rift and unite the party.

    He missed being candidate, until reason prevailed. It is now evident that he does not carry any weight, his strategy of leaning on past glory of an inconsistent leader having crumbled.

    The challenge is whether Moghalu would stay in the distressed Anambra LP chapter to rebuild it or defect to another party.

    LP:

    LP is always a party on the waiting list. It is perpectually a borrowed platform, always up for grab by aggrieved and bitter politicians from  other political parties. It is characterised by doubtful membership.

    Its founding authority, the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), do not know what they can even use the party for. That gap is usually noticed. Therefore, LP is always a place of refuge for rejected aspirants from other parties who lost out in the intra-party selection process.

    The tragedy now is that the leadership is being disputed. Who is the authentic chairman of LP? Julius Abure or Esther Nenadi-Usman, who chairs the National Caretaker Committee? The caretaker committee won a case in court, but the umpire invited the leader of the other faction to crucial meetings.

    That logjam persisted up to the poll day. It nearly led to the forfeiture of the governorship ticket. The factions could not agree to campaign for the candidate, who warmed the ballot as a decorative figure. The outcome was predictable. Anambra LP failed.

    ADC:

    ADC was a joker, and its candidate, John Nwosu, was a comedian on poll day. In Anambra, the party is at half. It is the half of the PDP, which broke away during the crisis that led to the exit of the Abubakar Atiku camp. Up to now, the coalition pales into daydreaming. ADC is not moving forward. It is not moving backward too. It is at a standstill.

    Anambra poll was its first opportunity. It failed the popularity test woefully. Two reasons were responsible. First, the structure of ADC is weak. The name of the party is strange to the people. Second, it could not withstand the arsenal of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), which has maintained dominance in the state since 2003.

    ADC is still in an embroyic state. It is yet to have a definite party register. Its identity is still being formed. The PDP defectors and old ADC members are yet to come to terms. The challenge of harmonisation has not been resolved.

    The result is a sign of what ADC should expect in future polls, except its proposed coalition is consummated.

    PDP:

    The PDP is at a low ebb in the Southeast state. In 1999, it was the ruling party, with Chinwoke Mbadinuju as governor. Four years later, APGA came with a bang. It was first resisted by the PDP, which falsely installed Dr. Chris Ngige as governor in 2003. In 2009, the interloper was kicked out by the court.

    Since then, APGA has maintained its hold. Not even the threat by another interloper, Andy Uba, could stop it. As APGA continued to wax stronger in the state, PDP continued to decline.

    Even, it PDP and ADC had combined strengths, there was no way they could have displaced APGA.

    Currently, PDP is in disarray. The crisis is affecting the state chapters. It took the strategic intervention of the former Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki, for the party to have a governorship candidate in Anambra. The two camps could not easily agree on who should run.

    The abysmal performance was predictable. Can the chapter ever bounce back?

    Other smaller parties:

    There are at least other 10 smaller parties warming the register of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). They are dormant parties. In the past, those  mushroom parties were deregistered for failing to live to expectation. But there was uproar because some activists felt that freedom of association, assembly and political participation was being tampered with.

    There is no reason to keep on the register parties that indulge in self-deception. Including them on the ballot is meaningless.