It has been almost two years since the Southwest regional security outfit code-named Amotekun commenced operation. In this report, Southwest Bureau Chief BISI OLADELE, YINKA ADENIRAN (Ibadan), ERNEST NWOKOLO (Abeokuta), TOBA ADEDEJI (Osogbo), OSAGIE OTABOR (Akure), OYEBOLA OWOLABI (Ikeja), and RASAQ IBRAHIM (Ado-Ekiti) assess the outfit’s effectiveness in achieving its set goals

The question that keeps rearing its head whenever terrorists or bandits attack any Southwest community nowadays is: where is Amotekun? From Igangan, in Oyo State, to lately, Owo, in Ondo, the rhetorical question has kept popping up.

In the Southwest, killings, kidnapping, armed robbery and other forms of criminality reached intolerable levels in 2019, with intelligence reports indicating that the thick bowels of government reserve forests of the zone are now home to these criminals. The pressure for a solution forced governors of the six states in the region to embrace the idea of a regional security outfit, an idea generated by the Development Agenda for Western Nigeria (DAWN) Commission to help bring these crimes to a halt.

The birth of Amotekun later that year, initially met with a brick wall, as the Presidency declared it illegal. It argued that the Nigerian constitution does not provide for a regional security outfit as the federating units are not regions but states. This realisation forced the six governors to go back to the drawing board, and urged all their Houses of Assembly to adopt a common security edict, which were given accelerated hearings, passed and accented to by all the governors. All the states – Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti – adopted a uniform name, law, operational guidelines and agreed to cross border cooperation for regional effectiveness of the outfit.

One year on, Amotekun, a statement of resilience and a testament to what is possible should there be political will, has recorded some successes and failures. It has also faced some challenges. In some of the states, Amotekun personnel have had running battles with criminals, and some of its men have been killed by bandits. The Nigeria Police Force also had a challenge accepting Amotekun, with the federal government grudgingly accepting its existence on the commitment that the corps would not bear arms.

Like the Chairman Southwest Governors Forum and Governor of Ondo State, Rotimi Akeredolu, recently observed, the refusal to approve arms for the corps remains the single most debilitating challenge to the effectiveness of the security outfit in achieving set objectives. Other factors militating against this are: inadequate funding, and lack of prosecutorial powers in virtually all the states. Here is a state-by-state analysis of how Amotekun has fared so far in the six states since inception:

Inside Oyo’s 1,500 men-strong Amotekun

Oyo, the most plagued state among the lot, had launched Amotekun with 1,500 men. The locals rolled out drums to celebrate its establishment, which they saw as a saviour against the prowling bandits who have turned their communities into a killing field. It was largely welcomed as a grassroots/community security outfit that would help in gathering intelligence capable of strengthening policing at the grassroots. Farmers, residents and indigenes of agrarian communities especially in Oke Ogun and Ibarapa areas of the state welcomed Amotekun as the best solution to herder-farmer clashes and killings in blighted communities.

However, having suffered a lot in the hands of criminal herders and armed robbers, residents in the areas are not fully satisfied with the performance of the security outfit. Residents, who spoke to The Nation in confidence, expressed worries that attacks are still going on as farmers and their farmlands are still being attacked, while rape, kidnapping and other criminal acts are still rife despite the presence of Amotekun in their communities. A community leader who preferred not to be mentioned said the sad situation killed the initial enthusiasm and warmth with which the people of Oke Ogun had welcomed the birth of Amotekun.

Available data showed that in Oyo State alone, Amotekun recorded 286 cases of violent attacks in the last year. They ranged from murder, robbery, theft, motorcycle snatching and rape, to malicious damage to farmlands, among others. A breakdown of the cases showed that it recorded murder cases (6), robbery (26), theft (95), burglary (24), kidnapping (14), ritual killings (3), fraud (8), defilement and rape (11). Other crimes include malicious damage to farmlands/produce (27), banditry (5), motorcycle snatching (20), automobile theft (2), vandalism (4), assault (15), extortion (4), cultism (5) and thuggery/hooliganism (17).

A closer analysis showed that the crime rate increased in the first six months of this year with cases rising to higher numbers than those recorded in the whole of 2021. Forty-nine robbery cases were recorded between January to June 2022, as against 46 cases recorded throughout 2021. Defilement/rape cases were eight as against three cases recorded in 2021. In the same vein, the corps recorded 12 cases of assault this year, as against three recorded in 2021. It recorded 14 thuggery/hooliganism cases as against three cases in 2021. But the agency recorded a decline in malicious damage to farmland/produce from 22 cases in 2021 to five in the first half of this year.

Commenting on the outfit’s performance, its commander, Col. Olayinka Olayanju (rtd), said the decline in the areas of herders/farmers clashes was as a result of the adoption of alternative dispute resolution (ADR) strategy by the corps, which he said has been yielding better result than the use of force or coercion. He said the agency has neutralised kidnap cases with a series of successful rescued cases of kidnapped victims in the last couple of months. He stressed that the agency was also working round the clock with the support of sister security agencies and the backing of Governor Seyi Makinde to ensure that the people of the state are safer and more secure through the use of technology-driven initiatives.

On the challenges confronting the outfit, Olayanju said many people in the state ignorantly aid crimes by hoarding information that could help the agency prevent criminality and arrest criminals. He pointed out that some parents, guardians and residents have knowledge of the atrocious ways of life of their children, neighbours and community members but would not make such available to security operatives until they fall victim to their criminal acts.

 The Nation also gathered that there was a need to increase the number of Amotekun personnel across the state. Thankfully, Governor Makinde had just approved recruitment of 500 additional personnel into the agency. It is believed that additional facilities and equipment will also help the corps to be more effective. An Igangan resident told The Nation that some of the personnel initially misunderstood their operational role, but later adjusted and earned the confidence of members of the public. He added that the corps has improved intelligence gathering and is swift in response to nipping criminalities in the bud, which has boosted public confidence. He added that the combination of Amotekun, vigilance and other non-conventional security organisations has helped reduce crime growth rate in the state.

As expected, some personnel have been found to abuse their privileges; while some have been killed during the operation. No fewer than 13 personnel have been killed and 37 dismissed. Some have sustained varying degrees of injury during operations. The families of each deceased officer got N2.5 million in compensation from the state government. Another resident said the government must do more in the areas of training and retraining of Amotekun personnel in weapon handling, crime investigation, intelligence gathering and proper documentation of cases.

A security expert, Taiwo Falade was optimistic that Oyo State residents will soon witness a respite in crime and criminalities going by the level of investment in the corps by the government. Part of the investments include the recent donation of additional 100 operational vehicles, the unveiling and commissioning of Amotekun headquarters in the state located at Agba-Akin, Moniya, in Akinyele Local Government area of the state, among others.

Osun Amotekun: Giving criminal elements a tough time

Last year, Governor Adegboyega Oyetola inaugurated the Amotekun Corps with 350 officers in Ejigbo on September 7, urging residents not only to own the outfit, but to provide them with credible information to aid their operations. To mark its second anniversary in September, the state government plans to recruit additional 350 personnel to strengthen the corps. Checks by The Nation revealed that since inauguration in the state, the corps has embarked on over 200 notable operations, which led to the arrest of over 250 suspected criminals in the state.

It has raided kidnappers’ dens, ritualist havens, drug peddlers’ hubs, and nocturnal meetings of cultists, where drugs, guns, and other dangerous weapons, charms and other substances were recovered. Speaking about the development, the Field Commander, Comrade Amitolu Shittu, revealed that the corps had arrested 250 suspects in connection with several crimes. “We have arrested over 250 suspects since we commenced Amotekun in Osun. We arrested kidnappers, rescued scores of their abductees unhurt, drug peddlers, rapists, ritualists, burglars and cultists among others. We handed them over to the police and Department of State Service (DSS) for prosecution and many of them are now in correctional centres; while some are standing trial in court.

“We have identified many dark spots where they grow Indian hemp in Osun State, and we have raided some of them, though it is very deadly because we faced gun battle but God showed Himself strong. Among the places they are growing weed are Orile-Owu, Ikire, on the Gbongan axis, and Ila-Orangun. One of their deadly spots is a village in Ijesa land. At that place, workers on the farm start work around 10pm and work through the night as they will come putting on a generator set to illuminate the farm. They have guards who wore military uniforms to scare people off the farm. But we raided the farm and discovered many atrocities they have committed on the farm land. They have killed some innocent people who strayed to the farm and buried them on the farm,” Amitolu said.

Lagos Amotekun: A modified version

The Lagos State Neighborhood Security Corps (LNSC) operates in the place of the Amotekun corps because, according to the Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Gbenga Omotoso, the corps operates on the law which established the LNSC. “The government resolved that the LNSC should continue in the stead of the Amotekun Corps to avoid creating double agencies that by law are discharging the same functions. The Amotekun Corps law is a modification of what we have as LNSC in Lagos. But we support the Amotekun Corps and everything it stands for. We also support ideas, materials and everything needed to make it function well.

“The LNSC is doing so much and the government keeps employing more people into the corps. They are good at providing intelligence because they live within the communities themselves. They have been very effective and many crimes have been busted through their active support.”

On the statistics of their operations, Omotoso said: “I do not have figures of their successes but I know they work very well with the police and the peace in Lagos State is partly due to the work of the neighbourhood corps in conjunction with the police.” On challenges the corps face, Omotoso said: “Of course there is nothing in life that doesn’t have challenges. The challenge of people coming into Lagos unrestrained; they move in huge numbers every day without any address, with no means of livelihood; they cannot be traced yet they keep coming in droves because they believe Lagos is a land of opportunities, and they want to come and fulfil their dreams.

Ekiti Amotekun trudging on amidst challenges

Despite the establishment of Amotekun in Ekiti State, security challenges such as farmer-herder clashes, kidnapping, banditry and other forms of criminalities have not abated in the state. The last 12 months have not been a good time for residents of the state as they have been terrified by criminals.

Both residents and travelers have suffered in the hands of armed robbers and kidnappers. Hot spots include Igbara-Odo-Ikere, Ayeyoro-Ewu, Ilumoba-Ijesa-Isu-Ikole, Akure-Ikere, Ise-Ikere and Ado-Ijan roads. Recently, about 10 people were gruesomely murdered in the state while scores were kidnapped, including traditional rulers and other influential persons, by unknown gunmen. Amotekun has, however, made some success through collaboration with sister security agencies in tackling kidnapping and banditry. It has foiled some abductions, apprehended some kidnappers, and rescued victims. It has also prevented and resolved some farmer-herder clashes.

Speaking on the achievements of the outfit so far, its commander, Brig. Gen Joe Komolafe (rtd), said the corps had recorded significant progress in tackling insecurity in the state. “One of our singular achievements is that we have cleared our forests of criminals, although we still have pockets of crimes in the state. If you move around our major highways, you will see our men on patrol and we are arresting kidnappers in the forest and handing them over to the police for prosecution.”

However, the corps is still perceived as a toothless security outfit by some residents as kidnapping, banditry and killing remain rampant in the state. A community leader in Awo-Ekiti, Alhaji Abdullateef Omoboriowo, said Amotekun has fallen short of people’s expectations as it failed to achieve its primary objective of stemming activities of kidnappers and banditry.

Ondo Amotekun winning converts

One area critics of Governor Oluwarotimi Akeredolu agreed he has performed well is the provision of security, particularly with the establishment of the Amotekun Corps.

Distressed individuals in the state now prefer to call themselves Amotekun operatives.

Last month, security agencies from Edo and Kogi states collaborated with operatives of the Ondo Amotekun to flush out criminals operating in Ondo border towns of Akoko.

The commander of Amotekun Corps in the state, Chief Adetunji Adeleye, said the collaboration helped to chase out kidnappers and armed robbers operating in borders in Akokoland. He listed the challenges of the outfit to include inadequate funding, insufficient equipment and support from the people; while urging residents to continue to support and provide intelligence that will make the task easier.

In the past two years that Ondo Amotekun was established, incidences of farmer-herder clashes have reduced tremendously. This is because many herders have been made to pay to farmers whose crops were destroyed. Checks showed that the corps has resolved over 600 conflicts between farmers and herders in the state. The signing of the Anti-Open Grazing bill into law also helped to boost the morale of farmers in reporting incidents of herders’ destruction of farmlands. It was gathered that over 5,000 violators of the law have been arrested since it became effective.

Its ‘Operation Clean Up’ and regular patrols have led to the arrest of over 4,000 suspects between January and May this year. Speaking on the successes of the corps, Adeleye said lots of the successes were due to the synergy with other security agencies, boasting that the crime rate in the state has dropped to 70 percent. “We have reactivated 12 control points in and out of Akure town. This will help us to barricade the road if there are criminal acts. We have sent a reasonable number of arrested criminals to correctional centres while diligent investigations are going on. Our routine recruitment would now be a yearly affair.

“The 350 personnel we are recruiting are to meet specific security challenges especially now that we are inviting more investors especially in rural areas where the investments will be cited. We want the state to be investor-friendly. The new recruits will beef up security architecture in the area of maintenance of law and order in the state especially in the suburbs.

Grassroots security is the solution to insecurity. We know the terrain better than other agencies. Neighbouring states have seen the results in Ondo State. I advise that they set up their own security outfit. If the government of Ondo State had restrained from using Amotekun during its own election, you can be sure of our neutral position in political activities. State-based grassroots security is the solution to insecurity across the country. The bottom line is grassroots security.”

Ogun Amotekun

In the Gateway State, Amotekun has attained some commendable feat. Its commander, Mr. David Akinremi, disclosed that Amotekun has arrested over 200 suspects in the last one year in the state. Akinremi added that between April last year and June, this year, the corps foiled over 50 crimes ranging from kidnapping, stealing and other sundry offences. “We started on April 1 last year. Since inception, we have arrested over 200 suspects for crimes ranging from kidnapping, armed robbery, rape, assault, stealing and cultism. We arrested a number of suspected cultists and we even engaged in shoot-out with them a couple of times.”

But some residents said that the presence of the Amotekun Corps is not felt in the state. They demanded that its manpower strength be urgently increased and deployed to tackle the recurring issues of herdsmen attacks and theft of farm produce in rural areas. Oyeyinka Oduwole said Amotekun’s impact is not felt in remote areas and farm lands. He posited that inadequate personnel and logistics are hindrances to their operation. He advised Governor Abiodun to urgently deploy Amotekun to tackle recurrent kidnapping cases in Ijebu-Ode and environs as well as tackle herdsmen attacks and theft of farm produce in rural communities, particularly in Ogun West area of the state.

Nigerians are still in a surreal mood over the recent improvement in electricity supply in the country. Stakeholders in the sector have continued to assure of better supply in the days ahead, but consumers, who are currently enjoying the moment of electricity blitz, appear to be keeping their expectations low. How far can the Distribution Companies (DisCos), Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission NERC), Generation Companies (GenCos), and other critical stakeholders in the sector sustain this seeming new dawn in power supply? MUYIWA LUCAS writes.

Until two months ago, Aloysius Iheanacho, Chief Executive Officer/Managing Director,  Loya International Limited  and Sahara Chicken, in Akute, Ogun state, was spending about N25, 000 monthly for electricity running his hospitality business. But by last week, Iheanacho noticed a sharp rise from the previous amount spent to about N48, 000. His enquiries made him discover that although there was no electricity tariff hike in this period, his sudden extra spending on electricity is due to the regular power supply his area now enjoys.

While the improvement has made the purchase of his electricity units higher because he now has longer periods of consumption due to the longer hours of electricity supply, yet Iheanacho sees this as a favourable development. “Without mincing words, I must admit that electricity supply has immensely improved in my area in the last two months or so. Interestingly, this improvement has impacted positively in the day-to-day running of our businesses. It has helped in no small measure in reducing our spending on diesel and maintenance of our generating sets. As you know, the survival of every business outfit is the convenience and the ability to take care of their overhead cost. Convenience here means having those cost indicators in moderation and fairness; this comes first before having the ability to take care of them. Where expenses are bloated in such a way that takes off the expected convenience, the outcome can never be palatable, just like the cost of diesel at present,” an obviously elated Iheanacho said.

For residents in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory, the situation is not different as residents continue to praise the Abuja Electricity Distribution Company (AEDC) for the improved power supply. Many of the residents of Abuja city centre and the five council areas said they could now boast at least 15 hours of electricity supply every day. According to Seun Akioye, a resident of Orozo in the Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC), the electricity supply to Karu through Jikwoyi, Orozo and Karahi had seen huge improvement. “I cannot in good conscience deny the improved power supply to my neck of the wood. And honestly, I do sleep with power supply and wake up to it. This wasn’t how it used to be,” he said.

Akìoye, a development communication expert, also revealed that the improved situation has helped cut the cost of diesel and petrol for his generators, the cost which would now be channelled towards meeting other household expenses. “At least I save ?5000 weekly on fuel these days. And this is same for many of my neighbours. Even some who wanted to invest on solar panels are having a rethink. I just hope this ‘honeymoon’ will last,” Akìoye said.

A new beginning

For several years, resolving the hydra-headed problems of electricity supply in the country has remained elusive. Even getting it to its present stage has been a mirage. However, the foundation for this seeming new beginning reared its head on June 15, 2022, where at a media parley in Lagos, the Chairman, Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), Sanusi Garba, shortly after the Second Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI), revealed that Nigerians will begin to enjoy improved power supply from July 1, 2022, following renewed efforts by industry stakeholders.

At the meeting, which was attended by top officials of NERC, Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), Generation Companies (GenCos), as well electricity Distribution Companies (DisCos), Garba said NERC was able to initiate a contractual agreement between the Gencos, TCN and the 11 DisCos that would guarantee the generation, transmission and distribution of an average of 5,000MW of electricity daily to customers effective July 1. The contractual agreement, he further said, is binding on all the players across the sector’s value chain as it also stipulated penalties for any party that defaults on the arrangement under the new regime.

“Yes, we have had discussions with the gas suppliers within our regulatory space. We have them on board to ensure that once we made the commercial requirements, gas was going to flow. Now, for transmission we have heard of figures well in excess of 5,000MW and clearly TCN will be able to deliver that. I recall clearly in March last year we had 5,400MW. So, it means it is quite possible based on signed commitments,” Garba had explained.

To ensure the sanctity of the agreement, NERC explained that all the stakeholders across the value chain had obligations, insisting that there would be consequences if any arm in the chain failed to deliver. For instance, in a situation where Gencos are able to deliver 5,000MW but TCN is unable to transmit same, then the TCN will be compelled to pay the penalty to the GenCos. Similarly, whenever the power is available and DisCos do not take the power, then they will pay liquidated damages that will compensate other market participants.

“We might not have 24/7 power supply from July 1 but Nigerians will see the trajectory because the target is to have an average of 5,000MW daily for transmission and distribution,” Garba said.

Stringent PPA and labour influence

A major factor driving the now regular supply is partial activation of the Power Purchase Agreements (PPA), which NERC and other stakeholders implemented in July. The PPA requires players in the sector to meet their minimum requirements or face sanctions.

For example, GenCos must generate as much power as is available in their contracted capacities, or pay penalties should they default. This also applies to the TCN, which must be to evacuate and wheel all the power generated. If they do not wheel all the power, they face penalties. The DisCos, on the other hand, are expected to distribute all the wheeled or face sanctions should they fail to meet up.

Last month, electricity workers, under the aegis of Nigerian Union of Electricity Workers (NUEE), embarked on an industrial action, shutting down the entire transmission stations across the country, thereby disrupting power transmission to all the 11 DisCos spread across the country. At the end of the one day strike, which reportedly crashed the national grid to zero MW, businesses in the power sector had recorded a financial loss of N2.3 billion in a single day.

In arriving at this figure, an energy expert and Team Lead, Platforms Africa, Adeola Yusuf, explained that using the monthly report of the NBET, the DisCos were issued an invoice of N266.9 billion  between January and April  2022, but could raise  only N146.5billion, about 44.9  per cent. The N266.9 billion quarterly receipts will in one month amount to N66.725 billion while in one day is approximately N2.3 billion daily. “With all the DisCos declaring inability to supply in that period, there won’t be a remittance of one day, which is about N2.23 billion by the time NBET finishes its compilation for the month,” Yusuf explained.

With this loss, DisCos and TCN realise the need to close the gap of such which can only be assured through regular power supply and electricity units purchased by the final consumer.

Tariff and funding

The policy review on tariff seems to have brought some level of confidence into the system. The review, which allows tariff review every six months, is now believed to allow operators to run at a cost-reflective tariff. Now the other angle to this policy is that such tariff review can be downward and not necessarily upwards, given some parameters as contained under the Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO).

Until recently, electricity tariffs are increased subject to government approval, which investors in the sector have severally opposed. Following the collapse of the electricity transmission system also known as national grid, on April 9, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved N1.4 billion for the supply of more equipment for the TCN to boost electricity supply across the country. The national grid is operated by the TCN.

The Minister of Power, Mr. Abubakar Aliyu, who revealed this, gave the breakdown thus: “The first one was a variation of the sum of a contract for 132/33 KV substation at Kafanchan, Kaduna State, with a KV line base extension at Jos substation, in Plateau State. This is in the sum of N132, 705, 861.42. The second is for the supply of handling equipment, haulage, and operational vehicles for the TCN at N1,338,159,080.88.”

Furthermore, in recent times, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has pumped in billions of naira as intervention funds or as loans to Discos for meters, Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) and Operational Expenditure (OpEx). The apex bank puts the cumulative disbursement under the Nigeria Electricity Market Stabilisation Facility – Phase 2 (NEMSF-2) to the DisCos presently at N254.46 billion.

Still, another tranche of N47.82 billion has been disbursed under the National Mass Metering Programme (NMMP) for the procurement and installation of 865,956 meters across the country. These monies, apart from other factors, are said to have provided stability for DisCos, which by extension is resulting in improved power supply.

Generation/transmission

Data from the Independent System Operator (ISO) portal, a semi-autonomous unit at the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), showed that during the last Easter celebration in April, power generation in the country dropped by 735.30 Megawatts (MW), being a 19.23 per cent to 3,089.30 MW a day earlier; the drop was against the peak generation of 3,829.7MW.

In August, an average of 93,183MWh of electricity was supplied to consumers, as against an average of 86,221MWh sent out in the previous month. In the same vein, energy production has also been ramped up with a daily average generation of 94,281.68MWh in the same month. Moving forward, on September 1, a total of 102,875.3MWh of energy was generated, while 101,630MWh was supplied, representing 98.8 per cent of the total generated electricity. Furthermore, the highest frequency recorded on same day was 51.1Hz, while the lowest frequency was 49.8Hz.

Although Iheanacho agrees that human and technical improvement and involvement is accounting for the improvement being experienced, he is worried that the joy of being experienced at this time may soon be over. For him, the improvement has been buoyed by the rains and once the rains are over, he fears that the electricity situation may return to what it used to be.

Going forward and to sustain the tempo, the Sahara Chicken boss insists that the first step is to ensure that obsolete equipment and methods of doing things in the sector are jettisoned to pave the way for modernity. “You wouldn’t believe it, most western countries are using hydropower in full or part to generate their electricity; yet they are having uninterrupted supply. Secondly, from the commercial point of view, it will be a win-win situation for the electricity generating and distribution companies and the populace and by extension all business outfits. The Generating and Distribution Companies will be boasting of increased revenue and at the same reduce the burden of high cost of providing alternative source by business outfits and the populace. It will actually have a positive chain reaction in the long run if the willpower is there,” Iheanacho submitted.

DisCos, TCN, GenCos brace up

Indeed, the operators in the sector may be heeding the advice of people like Iheanacho. Determined to key into the ‘new regime,’ critical stakeholders in the sector set up partnerships and other initiatives capable of enhancing their deliverables. For instance, Ikeja Electric (IE) signed a tripartite Interconnected Mini-Grid Agreement with Enaro Energy Limited and Ayobo community to provide reliable and uninterrupted electricity supply to Ishokan Phase1 Estate, Mercy Land Estate and Mercy Land Phase1 residents in Ayobo, Lagos State.

IE’s Chief Finance Officer, Seqinah Adewunmi, at the signing, described the initiative as a “landmark” in the history of the power sector in Lagos State, adding that those communities will be the first to experience uninterrupted power supply in the state via a blend of grid and off-grid generation and distribution of power. She noted that the initiative will transform the ways in which electricity is being distributed in the country, setting the pace for bigger things to happen as the plan is to expand to other communities within the Ikeja Electric Franchise area.

Furthermore, its Head of Corporate Communications, Felix Ofulue, explained that the firm has embarked on another project aimed at improving power supply in Igando area of Lagos, and also completed maintenance projects in Alimosho and many other communities across its network. For instance, IE, Ofolue reiterated, is committed to improving the quality and availability of power supply across its network through replacement of obsolete equipment and revamping of infrastructure. He further revealed that IE was embarking on replacement of obsolete panels at the Igando Injection Substation, which is aimed at improving power supply availability to that area.

“It is noteworthy to mention that improvement in power supply has been evident in other locations where planned replacement of panels by Ikeja Electric has already taken place.  Moreso, the proactive move by the company to replace the equipment is aimed at avoiding sudden breakdown. At Ikeja Electric we are committed to improving services in a bid to deliver better customer experience. The successes recorded so far, especially in areas where the similar projects were implemented have been generating commendation from our customers,” he said.

Similarly, the TCN is said to have deployed a high technology scheme called Internet of Thing (IoT) and Virtual Private Network (VPN) as a stop-gap solution to improve the national grid. The technology was for real time grid operations and management to National Control Centre (NCC) in Osogbo, Osun, and is expected to improve real-time operations of the national grid, pending the deployment of a long-term network automation system.

It is worthy of mention that the TCN, through the World Bank-funded Nigeria Electricity Transmission Project (NETAP), moved to optimise bulk power delivery to an estimated 13 million people in Lagos. This project is one of the TCN donor-funded projects aimed at expanding the transmission grid; while also prioritising the maintenance of existing transmission infrastructure.

TCN also recently began the construction of a 132kV transmission line, a 2 X 60MVA transmission substation, and a switching station in southwest of Ekiti State; which will raise the state’s capacity by 204MW. The 50 km stretch of 132kV transmission line will run from Ikere (Ado Ekiti) to Ilupeju Ekiti, with the 2X60MVA, 132/33kV transmission substation with four line bays at Ijesa Isu Ekiti, and the switching station at Ikere (Ado Ekiti) in the state. For the residents of Ekiti State and its environs, the additional 204MW capacity to the grid means that more bulk supply will be readily available for offtake by Benin DisCo for its customers in Ekiti and environs. He said that the substation project will also take care of suppressed load in the axis and relieve the Ado-Ekiti substation which has been overburdened to ensure a more reliable electricity supply to the people of Ekiti.

“The projects are part of the many projects being undertaken by (TCN) in pursuit of its grid expansion programme. Overall, we want to have a situation where transmission network capacity is far ahead of the GenCos and DisCos so that Nigerians can always have the type of power supply experience that they require,” the Managing Director and CEO of TCN, Dr. Sule Ahmed Abdulaziz had said in an earlier interview.

Before now

Up until the assurances from NERC, Nigerians are no strangers to darkness arising from crisis bedevilling the electricity sector. For instance, in April, three power lines collapse had plunged Abeokuta, Ayetoro, Imeko, Owode Egba and Mowe, in Ogun state into darkness. The Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company (IBEDC), while apologising to its customers, had blamed the situation on the collapse of all 33 KV feeders from Abeokuta Transmission Substation (T/S), Ojere, and New Abeokuta TS at Kobape.

Just like Iheanacho and other stakeholders, Garba, while commending the federal government and the CBN for the interventions in the power sector, is certain that country would soon start feeling the impact of the investments positively.

Fuel consumption, smuggling, subsidy, public accounts and allegations of corruption have continued to generate heated controversies that dominate Nigeria’s public space. Why has the simple business of purchase, supply and distribution become a labyrinth of mysteries and uncertainties? Who is hiding the data? As Nigeria grapples with the burden of dwindling public revenue and mounting debts, the puzzling regime of oil subsidy is at the centre of public finance and macroeconomic debates. In this report, JOHN OFIKHENUA examines the underlying issues and asks whose interest is fuel subsidy serving?

At the moment, nothing plagues the Nigerian economy as the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol. It has taken a toll on it. Not only is it ravaging the fund that should create investment for the future, it has also cast a shadow of doubt on the integrity of its managers. This has provoked shades of views with some putting question marks on the costs of subsidy.

The subsidy fever aggravated recently when the Minister of Finance and National Planning, Hajia Zainab Ahmed, dropped the hint that of the N19.76 trillion budget the government has proposed for next year, fuel payment would gulp  N6.7 trillion. This and cost of debt services, according to her, in the 2023-2025 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper to the House of Representatives, are likely to deny the country any capital project implementation in 2023.

Besides, the anxiety over the subsidy imbroglio further elicited concerns when the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Comptroller-General, Col Hameed Ali (retired) picked holes in the figures that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPL) was parading on the subsidy payment.  In his presentation to the House of Representatives, Ali countered the NNPC’s position that Nigeria was consuming over 60 million litres daily.

In questions seemingly directed at the NNPCL Group Managing Director, Mallam Mele Kyari, Ali wondered why the company approved the release of 98 million litres daily since the daily consumption is 60 million litres per day.  On the whole, he vehemently disagreed with the NNPC that the country can even consume 60 ml/d, almost raising a widespread concern that smuggling has been accountable for the rising figure. Thus, the Customs boss challenged NNPCL to justify the N6.4 trillion annual subsidy cost that it was brandishing.

His words: “I remember that last year, we spoke about this. Unfortunately, this year, we are talking about subsidy again. The over N11 trillion we are going to take as debt, more than half of it is going for subsidy. The issue is not about smuggling of petroleum products. I have always argued this with NNPC.”

Continuing, he argued that “If we are consuming 60 million litres of PMS per day, by their own computation, why would you allow the release of 98 million litres per day? If you know this is our consumption, why would you allow that release? Scientifically, you cannot tell me that if I fill my tank today, tomorrow, I will fill the same tank with the same quantity of fuel. If I am operating a fuel station today and I go to Minna depot, lift petrol and take it to Kaduna, I may get to Kaduna in the evening and offload that fuel. There is no way I would have sold off that petrol immediately to warrant another load. So, how did you get to 60 million litre per day? That is my problem.”

Responding, the NNPCL issued a press statement, insisting that daily petrol consumption in Nigeria is 68ml/d. It expressed readiness to submit the subsidy transaction to a forensic audit. In the statement, the company’s Group General Manager, Group Public Affairs Division, Mallam Garba Deen Muhammad, revealed that if not for subsidy, Nigerians would have been buying petrol at N462 per litre as the actual cost. He added that the federal government has been paying N279 per litre to subsidise the product supply. The NNPCL spokesman said: “The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has offered to submit itself for forensic audit of fuel supply and subsidy management, insisting that daily fuel supply is 68 million.”

According to him, from January to August this year, the company shipped 16.46 billion litres of petrol into the country, translating to 68ml/day. The statement recalled that last year, NNPC imported 22.35 billion litres, which was 61ml per day. He noted that “between January and August 2022,” the total volume of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) imported into the country was 16.46 billion litres, which translates to an average supply of 68 million litres per day. “Similarly, import in the year 2021 was 22.35 billion litres, which translated to an average supply of 61 million litres per day.”

The NNPC said the average daily evacuation (depot truck out) from January to August 2022 “stands at 67 million litres per day as reported by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA),” while “daily evacuation (depot load outs) records of the NMDPRA do carry daily oscillation ranging from as low as four million litres to as high as 100 million litres per day.”

The company said that rising crude oil prices and PMS supply costs above PPPRA (now NMDPRA) cap had caused oil marketing companies’ withdrawal from PMS import since the fourth quarter of 2017, saying:  “In the light of these challenges, NNPC has remained the supplier of last resort and continues to transparently report the monthly PMS cost under-recoveries to the relevant authorities.”

Commenting on the landing cost, the statement revealed that the average international market determined landing cost in Q2 2022 was “US$1,283/MT and the approved marketing and distribution cost of N46/litre.” Also, it said the combination of these cost elements “translates to retail pump price of N462/litre, an average subsidy of N297/litre and an annual estimate of N6.5 trillion on the assumption of 60 million litres daily PMS supply.”

The NNPC promised to ensure “compliance with existing governance framework that requires participation of relevant government agencies in all PMS discharge operations, including Nigerian Ports Authority, Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, Nigerian Navy, Nigeria Customs Service, NIMASA and all others.”

Reiterating the menace of smuggling in the petrol supply chain, the spokesman said: “As a responsible business entity, NNPC will continue to engage and work with relevant agencies of the government to curtail smuggling of PMS and contain any other criminal activities.”

This simple analysis of volume of consumption has not gone down well with some marketers, experts and industry players. Operators, who requested for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issues, have discredited the figure. On a simple scale of verification, some aligned with Ali that it was impossible to convey the NNPC acclaimed volume from depots to filling stations on a daily basis. A common search shows that for the deplorable condition of Nigerian roads, it takes a week for a truck of petroleum product to arrive Abuja from Lagos. Besides, if the trucked out figure is tantamount to consumed volume, it foreclosed the possibility of breakdown trucks that are prevalent on the highways.

Read Also: Discordant tunes over Nigeria’s daily fuel consumption

Meanwhile, a reliable source and a member of the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN), who pleaded for anonymity, challenged the NNPC to reveal how it arrived at the 68ml/d. According him, trucked out figure should not equate consumption in the country. He declared that adopting the volume of petrol loaded from the depots as a yardstick for determining volume of consumption in Nigeria is crafty. Doubting the sincerity of the NNPCL, he said “I cannot confirm the figure until they (NNPC) tell me how they arrived at the volume. The volume they have been presenting is based on trucked out; it is not what was consumed. If they cannot tell me how they arrived at the volume, I cannot say anything about that but if they are using loading from the depots, it is not going to work.”

On the propriety and sustainability of the payment, he said the association has always remained an advocate of full deregulation. The payment, he said, is not sustainable, praying that Nigeria does not become a country like Venezuela, which has nothing to show for its oil wealth. His words: “We have always been clamouring for deregulation and that is what we stand for till tomorrow. We cannot sustain it and I pray we don’t become like Venezuela.”

Commenting on whose purpose the subsidy payment regime serves, the DAPPMAN member said it was only benefitting the wealthy Nigerians, who reside in choice areas of the country. He was of the view that in as much as the masses only board mass transit buses, which consume the Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) diesel and only generate electricity with the smallest plants, they only gain the least from the subsidy support.  He said: “Yes, government is paying subsidy but who are we subsidising? The government is subsidising those who have two cars in Lekki, Magodo, and Surulele. The volume that I better pass my neighbour is using is far lower compared to what people who have two or three cars are consuming. So, to us, the government is subsidising those that are rich more than the common man.”

Responding to the discourse, the Special Adviser to the Senate Committee on Gas, Mr. Sowunmi Olabode, who spoke with The Nation on phone, sought the investigation of the NNPCL subsidy claims. He wondered about the parameters with which the company arrived at its total cost. “Go and find out how much subsidy exists and how it is calculated first. The process of you doing that will answer all your questions,” he declared.

Meanwhile, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), President, Alhaji Debo Ahmed, urged the federal government to stop the subsidy payment and allow local refineries to function. Depicting the subsidy support as a burden on the government, he tasked the decision makers on waiting for the local refining of petrol before exiting the payment regime. He said: “They have to make sure subsidy is removed. They should allow the refineries to work. They should make sure all the refineries are working and they can now remove the subsidy.”

Asked whose interest does the payment serve? Ahmed expressed fears that the removal of subsidy without local petrol production would plunge the masses into the worst hardship. “Looking at the situation of the country now, the subsidy payment is partly in the interest of the common man. This is because if petrol subsidy is removed prices will definitely go up and the common man will be down and seriously affected. So, it serves the masses interest too,” he said.

The Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria (MOMAN) Executive Secretary, Mr. Clement Isong, who also spoke with The Nation on phone, submitted that in the long run, the payment of petrol subsidy is not in the interest of the common run of the country. The subsidy, according to him, has drained the fund that would have been appropriated for the healthcare of the masses, infrastructure, education and technology. “The fund must be invested in primary healthcare rather than channeling the national wealth through subsidy,” he declared.

The Executive Secretary said that money should be better invested in infrastructure that can assist the masses climb out of poverty. He stressed that, “if you spend the money in transport and you use the transport cost for them, you will reduce the cost of bringing primary goods to the urban centres and there will be an overall investment that will reduce their cost. Those are the investments that will help them chase prosperity.”

According to him, the subsidy regime has warded off investment in the downstream sector of the Nigerian oil and gas industry. In a very lucid explanation, Isong posited that the subsidy support, which has hampered the full deregulation of the downstream, has also shrunk local content development. He explicitly noted that for absence of competitiveness and return on investment, the downstream has not fascinated the funds that would have developed it. The infrastructure in the downstream has been long overdue for replacement, maintenance or acquisition of recent technology but owing to the country’s reluctance to deregulate the price of petrol, the equipment at the midstream, depots and retail outlets now epitomise decadence.

Describing the sordid state of the industry, he said: “If you allow prices as they come to be competitive, if you allow people who invest to recover their investment, then they will invest. The downstream infrastructure is degraded because we are not making the required money, the required returns on investments on the infrastructure. Your refineries are not working, your pipelines are all in need of repair, and the fuel stations are in need of change of the underground tanks. A lot of the filing stations need to be completely knocked down and rebuilt. The entire distribution infrastructure of depots, trucks to filling stations require investments but these investments will not be forthcoming if you do not allow the investors to recover his investment.

“Any business needs to renew its equipment. Maintenance needs to keep it running from time to time to keep aside the old ones which are difficult to maintain and acquire the new ones which are more efficient. Any business that uses equipment, you need to maintain the equipment, when it is too expensive to maintain or when technology has brought a significantly more efficient equipment, you need to upgrade your equipment bring in the new ones.

“Some have not done that in Nigeria for the past 30 to 40 years because of your price ceiling at the pump. That is why the vessels that carry your product at the sea are old. The barges and your depots need repairs and you just need to buy new trucks because the trucks on the roads need to be off the road. The filling stations, the vast majority of them need to be completely refurbished. The underground tanks are still steel tanks and the world has moved beyond steel tank to develop other tanks. The pipelines underground at the filling stations should no longer be steel.

“These are rules that are already in place in Nigeria but are not being implemented simply because the business does not generate enough money for the maintenance or the replacement of the equipment at the stations. That is how it affects the downstream industry. That is why one of the downstream industry’s position is to deregulate. But beyond that we are all Nigerians and we can all see what the fuel subsidy is doing to our country and to larger economy. We can all see that if we do not invest in the prosperity of this country; education, human development, will be a continued downward spiral. You will have Nigerians that are not educated, which will lead to increase in banditry and increase in insecurity.”

Isong said it was an irony that Nigeria’s revenue is significantly down, it does not have enough money to service its debts, pay bills yet instead of prioritising it on the most pressing needs; the country is wasting it on petrol subsidy. To him, since the situation has degenerated to payment of over N6 trillion in a year on subsidy, it is terrible. Thus, he submitted that the subsidy has never been sustainable, and it is still not sustainable, stressing “we are heading into bankruptcy as a country.  We simply cannot afford it. It doesn’t make sense. That money is better channelled to healthcare, human development, Infrastructure, rather than simply being burnt in consumption. ”

As scaring as the removal of subsidy seems, experts say it may lift the country out of its current abyss of penury. However, before that reprieve, they add that the NNPCL and Ministry of Finance and National Planning need to manage the fuel subsidy scheme prudently and efficiently for the benefit of the citizenry.