This week is remarkable in the nation’s quest for a successor to President Muhammadu Buhari and the ruling party’s permutations for power retention beyond 2023.
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are in the eye of the storm. They are enveloped in crisis and unable to resolve their contradictions. The ruling party is waging war against itself. The main opposition party is also fighting itself.
Major contenders in APC for the position of the president are perfecting their strategies as they anticipate the release of primary guidelines. But there is time constraint. They are rushing to hatch plots that will give them an edge.
In the PDP, gladiators are battling to settle the zoning controversy. They need to agree that rotation is sacrosanct. But a section of latter-day power brokers in the opposition party is bent on dishonouring the long standing pact. The rift has polarised the national party in North and South. While the North, flaunting its numerical superiority, is scheming for the retention of the ticket in the region as a prelude to the retention of the presidency, the South, which is fretting due to its weak persuasive and bargaining power, is struggling for power shift through zoning or rotation.
If the Northern PDP Caucus succeeds in its bid, it may affect the permutations in the APC. The likelihood exists that some northern leaders of APC may want to shift ground on zoning by cunningly suggesting an open contest. The approach will ultimately collapse party unity, which is even still theoretical at the moment.
APC also has another hurdle to cross, even if zoning is affirmed by convention. The decision on micro-zoning will still be hanging. To which zone should the presidential ticket be micro-zoned among the West, East and South? Which among them is the stronghold of the ruling party in Southern Nigeria? What is the strength of APC in the Southeast and the Southsouth?
Both parties now face a common national difficulty. Nigeria is preparing for election in an atmosphere of worsening insecurity, which stares the political actors and ordinary citizens in the face. There is a resolve to get tickets for contests. There is no corresponding determination to make the atmosphere conducive for peaceful poll, at least, for now. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is ready. The parties are getting set. But the environment is not at peace. The climate is cloudy, particularly in the Northwest, the Northeast, and the Southeast, which is battling with a curious sit-at-home and internal strife.
Some commentators have described the outgoing week as one with surprises. It is debatable. There is nothing that is happening that has not been anticipated. The drama is now part and parcel of the nation’s political culture.
To those who are piqued by the situation in the Southwest APC, where former loyal disciples are squaring up with their leader, it is a week of betrayal. This too, as some people have cautioned, should be viewed from the perspective of the exercise of the right to contest. In politics, they argued, there is no morality. But can a society survive without moral values and restraints?
Generally, it is a time of heightened anxiety. To discerning Nigerians, it is a period of sober reflection.
The battles for the tickets will be fierce, judging by these scenarios. The process is highly competitive. The Southwest’s united progressive front of 2015 is facing a serious threat and test of survival. Cracks on the wall have widened and cannot be easily mended. Are things not falling apart in Yoruba land as the zonal chapter of the ruling party cannot speak with one voice?
The agony revolves around the inability of the so-called politically conscious race to avoid the mistake of the past. It appears that the Yoruba are unwilling to learn from their gnashing of teeth over the elusive hope of liberation by the Best President Nigeria never had, the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, and the subversion of the mandate that the Nigerian electorate massively gave another kinsman, the late Chief Moshood Abiola, which, according to observers, had sealed the bright prospect of a real progressive administration at the centre.
Ahead of next year’s presidential poll, the stakes, as usual, are high. Nigeria needs a competent, experienced and unifying successor to President Muhammadu Buhari.
But other issues will also shape the struggle for political control. The president of Nigeria is powerful. The overcentralisation of power in the unitary system the country is masquerading as a federal state makes him more powerful. Not only does the flawed 1999 Constitution accords the highest office uncanny prerogatives, the president can also exercise some unearned powers, as underscored by the issuance of certain executive orders, which the judiciary has now outlawed.
Any president of Nigeria is a maker of history. But he may not necessarily become a giant of history, if there is gap in role fulfilment and citizens cannot marry expectation with reality under his leadership. The result may be agitation by people who will naturally anticipate the end of an era. This is the current national experience. It means people are eager to put the current experience behind them as they yearn for a new lease of life.
Yet, the pre-eminent office has never been a unifying factor. It has not acquired a national outlook as its occupant, although elected by the whole Nigerian constituency, is often perceived as a representative or personification of a regional agenda. This perception tends to shape the struggle for federal power by the antagonistic social formations that fear marginalisation, alienation, exclusion and domination. It may persist until the presidency becomes a critical factor in forging integration.
The history of Nigeria shows that many have become presidents by circumstances. While those who have vision, plans and programmes to put the beleaguered country on the fast lane to progress have either been deprived, frustrated, ignored or edged out, Nigeria has had to endure the imposition and lack of performance by those who belonged to its “second eleven”.
Remarkably, some critics have alluded to the inexplicable influence of few political principals and principalities who dote on the polity during the periodic elections. They often refer to certain Generals in blissful retirement, super monarchs, top politicians and few key industry players as the entrenched forces who determine where the pendulum should swing. They could be counted on fingers of one hand. It is said that if a president is not cast in their image, they can package some sin ister plots to blackmail and weaken his administration.
This reality or fable may be responsible for the quest for their backing or endorsement by aspirants who quite understand that these statesmen, who operate outside the main political parties, are battling with the inevitability of fading relevance and eclipse of prestige.
It is also during the periodic electioneering that politicians show their true colours of treachery and bitterness, as well as their capacity for sudden compromise and last-minute consensus building.
There is much lesson to learn from political styles, decoys, tricks, intrigues and prevarications, which are elements of the unfolding drama.
In Port Harcourt, the Rivers State capital, a thanksgiving service instantly transformed into a declaration ground. Some guests of Transportation Minister Rotimi Amaechi, including Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, had to confront the reality of a grand presidential declaration in the main bowl of the stadium.
The man of the moment, and chief mourner of the recent train bombing, who thought that his colleagues in the Federal Executive Council (FCE) never trusted him, beckoned on over 200 million Nigerians to trust him with presidential power.
Also, after series of denial, speculations about Prof. Yemi Osinbajo’s next move ended. The vice president, who had transferred his polling booth from Victoria Garden City in Lekki, Lagos State to Ikenne in Ogun State, refused to gather a crowd, resorting to social media declaration. Instantly, some people said he either lacked followership or a formidable structure, or he has not fully transformed from an eloquent technocrat to a full-fledged politician.
Pastor Osinbajo, who spotted a black dress, never smiled throughout his declaration broadcast. He deployed his peculiar oratory prowess. But he never promised any new thing that could inspire or engender trust and confidence. He could not isolate or dissociate himself from the current regime, despite his apparent sensitivity to public disenchantment.
Osinbajo, a widely travelled man, said he had been to virtually all the 774 local governments in Nigeria. Visiting them means that he knows the country extensively. But what has that translated to in over seven years that he has been in Aguda House in Abuja?
He promised security and jobs, which the administration has not been able to accomplish in seven years, despite APC’s emphasis on the campaign promises. The modalities for his proposed turnaround are unknown, making the renewed promise to pale into mere rhetoric.
Many frowned when Osinbajo promised to build on the foundation laid by his boss. Observers suspected a faulty assessment of the regime by a key player. While some people said he could not highlight the achievements he wanted to build upon, others said it was evident that the Number Two Citizen lacked the confidence to campaign based on the administration’s scorecard that has been characterised by implementation deficiencies.
If Osinbajo had just promised the immediate release of captured bombed train passages and instant end to ASUU strikes, perhaps, he would have carried the day.
Part of the drama was that when reporters requested for his leader’s reaction to the declaration by his political son, the Jagaban Borgu said: “I don’t have a son grown up enough to make such declaration.” To analysts, it signalled another critical parting of ways that may be temporary or permanent.
But, gullible and imaginary supporters in some states danced round selected capital towns in celebration of the vice president’s ambition. The exuberant organisers of rallies spoke glowingly about the VP. However, when those dancing blindly behind them were asked by reporters to explain their motivation, their responses were vague. It appeared they momentarily savoured the economy generated around the declaration, which was short-lived.
Few days later, news filtered that the war scholar, Dr. John Kayode Fayemi, governor of Ekiti State and Chairman of Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF), would declare his intention to run for President after Easter. Last year, prominent northern leaders described him as the son of the legendary Sardauna, Sir Ahmadu Bello, former Premier of defunct Northern Region. It is now time to cross the bridge, as Fayemi promised in his two previous interviews with the Channels Television.
It was also learnt that Senator Ibikunle Amosu, former governor of Ogun State, may join the race. He is often said to be the first closest ally of the President in the Southwest.
Yesterday, a there were speculations that some interest groups also want Works and Housing Minister Babatunde Fashola to move from what looks like the partisan sideline to the open field.
To analysts, if, at least, four people from the Southwest are eyeing the ticket, it is a crowd. It is a moment of emotional wrenching for patriotic Yoruba sons and daughters because not only do the four belong to one family, three of them are actually challenging the family head to a duel.
As the primaries draw near, there may be more intrigues, shifts in alliance, collaborations, backstabbing, disillusionment, confusion, conflict resolution, new deals, parleys, explosions and turmoil.
The wheeling and dealing will be another dimension to the drama.