President Muhammadu Buhari will bow out of office after his two terms of eight years on May 29. In 2015, he warmed himself into the hearts of Nigerians through the ‘change mantra’. Has he delivered fully on his promises? Deputy Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines his achievements in some critical sectors, the constraints and noticeable gaps in role fulfilment.
As the curtain was drawn on the 16 years of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) rule and President Muhammadu Buhari took the baton from Dr Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, much hope and confidence were reposed in the All Progressives Congress (APC)-led Federal Government.
Expectations were high at that historic moment. World attention focused on Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country with a boring history of fluctuating democracy. In particular, it was a defining moment for the masses, who had voted for change.
For President Muhammadu Buhari, the inauguration marked the fulfillment of a latent desire to bounce back to power, 31 years after he was ousted in a coup.
Nigerians expected Buhari to fix the ailing sectors and restore public confidence. It is a huge task that demanded commitment, patriotism and speed.
Buhari, a military General in blissful retirement, was seen as a beacon of big hope. He inherited many challenges.
The sleeping giant of Africa was at a crossroads in 2015. The fragile edifice was about to crumble. The economy was on its knees. The mono-economy that thrives on oil had been hit by the global meltdown. The failed budgets had exposed imprudent management on the part of the government.
Also, the country was battling with poverty, decayed infrastructure, soaring unemployment, power outage and large-scale corruption. The atmosphere of insecurity was not investment-friendly. The protracted energy crisis has led to a high cost of production and the manufacturing sector had been crippled
To many Nigerians, the APC was the solution centre, having rolled out a roadmap for a welfare state. Although the party was not categorical on its ideological leaning, many felt that it was a left-of-the-centre party genuinely committed to leadership renewal and service delivery. APC’s manifestos portrayed it as a credible alternative platform to voters, who opted for regime change on poll day.
When the APC unveiled its plans for the nation in Abuja, it attempted to provide answers to some puzzles. The 10-point road map, according to the party, was meant to herald a welfarist state.
The highlights of the manifesto include job creation, free and qualitative education, a better housing plan, and improved funding for agriculture and security. Others are social security for the poor, technological-driven industrial estates, allowances for ex-corps members for 12 months and the war against corruption.
Many Nigerians hailed the manifesto, but the PDP frowned at it, dismissing it as unrealistic. Its then National Publicity Secretary, Chief Olisa Metuh, described it as a road map to anarchy, adding that it will lead to doom.
However, his APC counterpart, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, now Minister of Information and Culture, assured that, when they are implemented, the road plan would halt the cries of despondency, unlike the Federal Government’s hypocritical transformation agenda, which has become a disaster, owing to faulty implementation.
The party official, who described the manifesto as the outcome of a national need assessment, stressed: “We commissioned a survey on what is wrong with Nigeria; what exactly Nigerians need. Unemployment, corruption and insecurity are the major problems confronting Nigeria today. So, the road map is a result of what Nigerians need. We are after a new Nigeria. This is a new Nigeria we are creating in which the people will be the beginning and the end of all developmental programmes.”
Many Nigerians applauded the plan, which, in their view, underscored the APC’s strategic planning and vision for a brighter future, although the party kept a sealed lip on its implementation strategies. The party did not promise what it could not achieve. For example, throughout the campaigns, APC leaders avoided the contentious ‘national question’.
However, like the flash of lightning, the two terms of eight years are about to become history. There are obvious gaps between expectation and reality, despite the promise of fundamental changes to socio-economic structures and articulated measures to halt the national drift. Although President Buhari has taken bold steps in some sectors to restore public confidence in the government, critics have pointed out that he has moved at a snail-speed.
In the beginning, the president was curiously slow. For example, he as a party leader was not decisive when certain moments demanded tact and wit. Under his watch, party men rebelled and teamed up with the opposition in Parliament to elect a Senate President and Speaker of the House of Representatives whose elections as chairman and deputy chairman of the National Assembly were not dictated by the party’s preference.
The President has been criticised for the delay in setting up a cabinet of talents. For six months, he relied on the permanent secretaries to run the country. He also came under attack for not putting in place an economic team on time, causing experts to conclude that the administration aptly lacked economic direction.
Also, although Jonathan left, many of his political appointees had fixed tenures that outlast his regime. The president said he could not sack them because of his avowed commitment to due process. It is doubtful if all these appointees effectively supported the president’s programme of change.
Acknowledging that his administration has been objectively slow, Buhari quickly rationalised that he has been slow, but steady.
Many reasons were responsible for the President’s inability to hit the ground running, following the change of baton. Buhari, according to the Presidency, needed to clean up the Aegean table. Besides, the President inherited an economy in ruins. The decline in the price of crude oil from $120 per barrel in June last year to $48 per barrel posed a challenge.
What the Federal Government did afterwards was to re-assess the economic situation, reduce the cost of governance, select the best of talents as ministers and put the round peg in a round hole and embark on the full implementation of the road map to deliver the dividends of democracy to the generality of Nigerians.
In his first one hundred days, President Buhari set an example. He declared his assets. He also facilitated bailouts for distressed states to halt the cash crunch. States found themselves in precarious situations. Many governors could not pay salaries promptly. The bailout offered temporary relief to the 27 states on the verge of liquidation.
The president also moved swiftly to block financial loopholes by insisting on a Treasury Single Account.
The anti-corruption mantra also achieved some results. The government has been on the trail of looted funds. Many have been prosecuted and they forfeited ill-gotten wealth to the state.
Despite the activities of the anti-graft agencies and courts, unpatriotic Nigerians exploit the loopholes in the legislation and the alleged vulnerability of a few judicial officers to undermine the war. It is, therefore, gratifying that the Sagay Committee was set up to offer a novel legal framework for the anti-graft war.
The Commander-In-Chief also successfully crossed the bridge from dictatorship to democratic constitutionalism. Throughout his administration, his hand was not heavy on any governor. He never deployed any federal weight to win elections for his party at the state and federal levels. Even when members of his party committed indiscipline through their anti-party activities by supporting other candidates outside APC, he was never reprimanded. The style weakened party supremacy and discipline in the ruling party.
Buhari gave a marching order to the Armed Forces to crush the Boko Haram insurgency from day one. Some successes were recorded. But not all the captured girls have been rescued. A case in point is Leah Sharibu, the abducted Dapchi schoolgirl who is still in captivity.
The surgical operation failed in many sectors. The areas highlighted by experts include the economy, with special emphasis on diversification, power supply, resuscitation of the oil sector, prevention of oil theft, employment generation, and the unfinished business of electoral reforms.
The prevailing macroeconomic indicators still point to an economy in distress. It has made the rebasing of the economy by the previous government, which put Nigeria as the 21st biggest economy in the world, as a fabrication and figment of a hyperactive imagination.
Under Buhari, the economy is biting harder. Its fragility is underscored by the declining Gross Domestic Product (GDP). There was a recession. The country recovered. There was COVID-19. Nigeria also triumphed under Buhari.
Afterwards, there was a decline in oil earnings. This followed a sharp drop in oil prices due to many internal and external factors. The currency has been under pressure since the oil price collapsed.
Some experts even suggested that the naira may have suffered a 25 per cent devaluation.
A gloomy picture is painted daily by economic analysts. The inflation rate is rising. The common man is at the receiving end as he bears the burden of the surge in prices of food items. Bankers have cried out that savings are going down and withdrawals going up, with implications for investment and productivity.
According to the World Bank, Nigeria is under the yoke of extreme poverty with over 70 per cent of its 170 million population living on $1.25 (about N250) per day. This is compounded by a lack of access to social amenities, including healthcare, sanitation, and potable water. Millions are battling homelessness. Unemployment is growing in geometrical proportions. The manufacturing base cannot expand under the unbearable atmosphere.
“The cost of doing business in Nigeria is high,” Dr Rasak Odunlade, a public affairs analyst, cried out, stressing that this may discourage domestic and foreign investors. “The truth is that businesses here face very high costs, the most obvious being the high input cost of power where manufacturers and other businesses pay twice the rate per kilowatt hour than the grid to provide continuous power they need,” he added.
A proactive measure to sustain the environment and prevent the yearly flooding, which often displaces people from their homes and farms, has been lacking.
The energy crisis has become a national albatross. Power generation and distribution are a mirage. Although there was a glimpse of hope when President Buhari was inaugurated, the relative electricity supply has now been displaced by acute darkness.
The saving grace is the generator and other sources of electricity. Yet, not all Nigerians can afford it. The Ministry of Power recently painted an awful picture. The power supply is fluctuating. The non-resolution of the power challenge is not a boost to productive activities in the manufacturing sector. In particular, it is to the disadvantage of the informal sector.
The oil sector has become more problematic.
Paradoxically, the sixth-largest producer of crude oil is also an importer of oil for domestic consumption. A few months ago, a tragedy of premium spirit scarcity hit the country, with the agony of long queues at filling stations staring the government in the face. The amount of crude oil being lifted and actual earnings from the crude oil are unknown.
Refineries are at a low ebb, despite the huge investment in turnaround maintenance. Oil theft has become a lucrative business, fueling suspicion of an institutional cover-up. At the time, former Central Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi cried out that a huge amount of money meant for the NNPC was missing. Today, there is still a debate on the utility of fuel subsidies.
Some experts argued that it will create more hardship for Nigerians. But others also argued that the fuel subsidy is to the exclusive advantage of a few oil barons and collaborators who are holding the sector in its jugular.
Some years ago, the NNPC embarked on miniature reforms by reducing the number of subsidiary heads from eight to four, thereby cutting costs, reducing inefficiency and boosting profitability.
Security is still a big challenge. The eyes of the world are on Nigeria as it grapples with the Boko Haram insurgency in the Northeast. There appears to be respite now. But, occasional onslaught by the terrorists inflicts much agony on the people.
But, other zones also have their fair share of insecurity ranging from armed robbery to kidnapping. Prominent Nigerians have only regained their freedom from abductors after paying a fat ransom.
Many lives have been lost in the North, no thanks to the dreadful sect. The fate of the abducted Chibok girls still hangs in the balance. Their whereabouts are unknown. Many of their parents are dying of psychological trauma.
Many have been displaced from their homes and they now sojourn in refugee camps. The camps are not even insulated from terror attacks. Many investors have attributed their inability to explore investment opportunities in Nigeria to the unfavourable climate.
The President has visited the neighbouring countries – Cameroun, Niger and Chad – to solicit their cooperation for the sustenance of the Joint Task Force. More weapons were procured from the right sources in aid of the war. In the past, Boko Haram was taking the battle to Nigeria. But, as Nigeria started taking the battle to Boko Haram, the sect now is on the defensive by going after soft targets. Southeast states are still confronted with sit-at-home.
Security reforms, which would have heralded a decentralised policing structure, have been avoided in the last eight years. But the agitation cannot be subdued. The setting up of Amotekun by the Southwest may be a critical step to the actualisation of state police, in the future.
Central to the maintenance of security, law and order across the state is policing. Currently, under the lopsided federal structure, governors, who are honorary chief security officers of their states, rely on the police under the supervision of the distant Inspector-General of Police. The governor in distress has to appeal to the Commissioner of Police, who in turn has to obtain the approval of the IGP before obliging the governor.
Yet, the federally-controlled police have often misbehaved. The high-handedness of the SARS led to violent protests in major cities. Lives were lost and property destroyed.
Buhari has established more tertiary institutions, thereby expanding educational opportunities for youths. But, for almost a year, university teachers were on strike. Students stayed longer in schools than expected.
Also, in the health sector, there were crises. Inadequate funding has led to brain drain. Many competent doctors and nurses have relocated abroad in search of greener pastures.
Nigeria, according to observers, have also become more divided. Allegations of nepotism fill the air.
How will Buhari be remembered? Fixing a nation at a crossroads is not an easy task. Twice in national history, fate has entrusted the Daura-born leader with the unenviable duty of salvaging a nation in distress; first as a young and energetic General in 1984, and later, as a septuagenarian statesman driven by patriotic anger.
Three decades ago, he rode to power on military populism. The conditions that paved the way for his ascension in 1983 were similar to the prevailing circumstances of 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2015, which made him throw his hat in the ring. Reminiscent of the Second Republic, Buhari had warned that the country was on the brink. He lamented that the ship of state was sinking; the economy had been mismanaged, the Nigerian currency had almost become a worthless paper, a culture of theft and graft in high places was thriving, insecurity remained insurmountable, roads were death traps, and hospitals were mere consulting clinics. The nation lay prostrate.
After the 2025 presidential poll, the euphoria of victory fizzled out in the face of the mounting challenges. President Buhari inherited few assets and many liabilities. The components of the national burden included a disunity polity, aptly torn apart by the battle for presidential power, an empty treasury ravaged by an avaricious leadership, a huge foreign debt capable of mortgaging the future, depleted foreign reserves, soaring corruption by greedy actors, an army of jobless youths, dilapidated infrastructure, and growing insecurity.
Many of these problems have not been resolved.
However, Buhari has managed to overcome his inevitable adjustment difficulties. The image of the new democrat in Aso Villa, Abuja, contrasts sharply with the stern-looking soldier of the early eighties in Dodan Barracks, Lagos.
In 1984, the military Head of State and Commander-in-Chief was like the lord of the manor. There was no parliament to moderate his actions. He was both the legislature and the executive. He ruled by decrees, many of which were draconian. He brooked no opposition.
But, the last eight years have been a different ball game. The President was being constitutionally checked by the National Assembly and an independent judiciary. Unlike before, the media and civil society groups are active in playing the role of watchdogs in democracy without inhibition. Presidential actions may have also been moderated by the utter sensitivity to the legitimate pressure and demands from the ruling and opposition parties.
Buhari’s parting gift was the signing of the bill on the decentralisation of rail transportation into law. It may be the baseline for re-engaging the national question, with the goal of restoration of true federalism.