Following the emergence of General Muhammadu Buhari from the North-West as the President-elect and Prof. Yemi Osinbajo from the South-West as the Vice-President-elect, the politics of the leadership of the next National Assembly is the current puzzle in Nigeria’s political theatre, especially as the All Progressives Congress (APC) failed to produce Senators and House of Representatives members in both the South-East and the South-South, reports, Assistant Editor, Dare Odufowokan
A cursory look at Nigeria’s political process is suggestive of a situation where the South-East may have lost the chance of producing Nigeria’s next Senate President or Speaker of the House of Representatives under the General Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.
Based on what has become the unwritten zoning arrangement adopted in the sharing of political offices amongst the geo-political zones of the country since Nigeria’s return to democratic governance in 1999, it would have been expected that since Buhari from the North-West, would be President and the Vice Presidency is in the South-West with the election of Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, a Yoruba man, the Senate Presidency would have naturally been ceded to the South-East.
However, with the 15 senatorial seats in the five South-East states of Anambra, Abia, Imo, Enugu and Ebonyi won by the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) emergence as the party with the majority in the senate, it appears the Igbos of the South-East may have ruled themselves out of contention for the coveted seat of the Senate President and head of the legislative arm of government.
With the results of the National Assembly election declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) the APC has taken over PDP’s majority party status in the next session of the 109 membership Senate.
Before the election, the Peoples Democratic Party enjoyed the majority status in the red chamber with 64 members while the APC has 41. Other parties, like the Labour Party, the Accord Party and the Social Democratic Party, shared the remaining five seats.
And if you think the South-East will have to make do with being given the number four position of the Speaker of the Federal House, you may again be wrong as that is also threatened by the absence of an elected member of the lower house from any of the states in the South-East.
In the South-South, the situation is just a little better given that the APC won only one senate seat and a handful of House of Representatives slots in Edo State. The rejection of the party by the voters in these two zones and its victory across the country may have altered the zoning permutation and opened up the two coveted positions of the Senate presidency and the Speakership to be snapped up by any other zone aside the South-East.
South-East
As stated earlier, it is nearly a closed case for the region in the struggle for both seats. A former governor of Anambra State and serving senator, Chris Ngige, who was positioned for the Senate President slot, lost his bid to return to the upper legislative chamber.
Ngige was defeated by Uche Ekwunife of the PDP. A serving member of the House of Representatives, Ekwunife will now represent the Anambra Central Senatorial District when the next Senate session opens June, closing the door on Ngige.
The incumbent Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu, who represents Enugu West Senatorial District, is returning to the National Assembly for the fourth time, but on the platform of the defeated PDP. Consequently, he is not in contention for the coveted position as we speak.
However, there are two possibilities being examined by pundits that may still see the zone getting the Senate presidency. One is the expectation that Ngige, who has made clear his intention to contest Ekwunife’s victory at the tribunal, may still make it to the senate in time to emerge as Senate President.
“Ngige will win at the tribunal because we have ample evidence to show how the desperate PDP ensured the victories of their unpopular candidates across Igbo land. We all know what happened. At that time we were helpless and could only watch as they robbed us.
“But the tribunal will settle all that and either call for fresh election or declare Ngige and others as the winners. That way, our real choice will represent us at the National Assembly. It is a matter of time and these pretenders will be shown the way our,” Cecelia Ihueze, an APC woman leader in Awka, told The Nation.
The other possibility, according to reliable sources, is hinged on alleged moves by Ekweremadu to dump the PDP and wriggle his way into the victorious APC before the inauguration of the next senate session. Although none of Ekweremadu’s men would confirm this report, it is being widely discussed within and outside the PDP in his native Enugu State.
The Nation also learnt that the suggestion for a Senator of the current Deputy Senate President’s caliber to move into the new ruling party emanated from the leadership of the Ohaneze Ndigbo, as a measure of avoiding a situation where the Igbos would be onlookers in the next government.
“I don’t know if this has been made official yet but I know that at an emergency meeting of the leadership of the Ohaneze few days ago, the idea of telling some of our elected senators to move into the APC and secure our place in the next government was discussed. It is nothing spectacular. It is just the necessary thing to do to avoid a situation where we will be mere onlookers in the next government,” a Lagos-based Igbo elder statesman said.
South-South
With its loss of the presidency and APC’s victory in a few constituencies in Edo State, the South-South region, The Nation learnt, is making a dash for either the Senate or House of Representatives leadership. This move by the region further endangered the chances of the South-East to clinch any of the two positions as one of the two must go to the northern part of the country.
Some analysts say the APC could be forced to zone the position of the Senate Presidency to South-South zone where the party has so far won a seat in Edo State. The party’s candidate, Francis Aimikhena, won in Edo North.
However, the possibility of Mr. Aimikhena picking the slot is remote for two reasons. First, he is from the same zone and state as the party’s National Chairman, John Oyegun. The fear that party politics may stop Oyegun and Aimikhena, both from the same state, from holding these two coveted positions, is currently very rife.
Second, Aimikhena will not be a ranking senator because he is coming to the upper chamber for the first time. Consequently, he is barred by the rules of the Senate which says only ranking senators can aspire to the office of the Senate President.
In an Assembly that will have the likes of Senators David Mark, Ekweremadu, Senator George Sekibo, Senator James, and numerous others, it is very unlikely that the fresh man from Edo will be elected President.
The situation may play out in the House of Representatives where the presence of ranking lawmakers like Femi Gbajabiamila and other multiple termers may rob the newcomers from Edo the chances of becoming Speaker.
Lucky North Central?
Given the situation, pundits say the North-Central zone may benefit from the loss of the South-East in the permutations. With the APC doing creditably well in the zone with surprise victories in Benue, Kogi, Kwara, and Niger states, the party, sources claimed, may be looking in that direction to pick the Senate President.
The fight then, will be straight between a former governor of Kwara State, Bukola Saraki, a former governor of Benue State and Senate Minority Leader, George Akume, and a former National Chairman of the PDP, Barnabas Gemade.
While Akume is returning to the Senate for the third time, Saraki and Gemade are returning to the red chamber for the second term. The three are respected ranking Senators and acknowledged politicians in their respective rights.
“Apart from Gemade who joined the party after losing the primary election in the PDP, the two other Senators are well positioned within the party as leading chieftains, to occupy that position.
If you understand the style of the APC as a party where the leadership of the party is highly respected and as a party that intends to have a firm hold on its elected officials, you will understand why one of these two men would be preferred to head the National Assembly,” a chieftain of the party said.
A governor’s lamentation
Saddened by the looming loss of the coveted positions by his kinsmen, Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State, recently, lamented that except the APC senatorial candidates regain their mandates that was stolen by the leaders of the PDP, the Igbo might have lost their chance of producing the next Senate President.
The governor, who blamed Igbo leaders in the South-East zone for the unfortunate situation, regretted that their selfishness and lack of vision have kept Ndigbo in the backseat of the nation’s politics, despite their contributions to the overall development of the country.
Okorocha said, “It is very painful for the Igbo to lose the position of the Senate President after being denied any leading position in the country for a long time because our political leaders and office holders used their position to rig out APC candidates in the election.
“We saw it coming and we told the political leaders why Ndigbo should embrace the APC but they could not believe us but today the story has changed and the PDP they have been following all these years with nothing to show for it, is now an opposition party.”
The governor however assured the APC supporters that the hope of Igbo man becoming the Senate President was not totally lost, as he vowed that the party would reclaim its mandates that were freely given to it by those who were desirous of change.