Undertow
MOST of the criticisms trailing the restriction of commercial motorcycle (okada) and tricycle (keke) operations to designated parts of Lagos State have focused on the abruptness of the decision and the unavailability of ready and viable commuting alternatives in a city-state bursting at the seams with a burgeoning population. Those complaints are genuine, especially in the face of the state government’s unconvincing explanations regarding the supposed alternatives and the timing of the exercise. The negative consequences of commercial motorcycle and tricycle operations, particularly their unacceptably high proneness to accidents and deployment for robbery and sundry crimes, dictate the urgency of the partial ban, argues the state government. Opinion is divided almost equally on the wisdom of the ban.
The restriction — not a complete ban — is targeted at some 15 council areas. Lagos State has 20 local government areas and 37 local council development areas. The restriction, which is not even total in most of the affected council areas, is naturally unpopular with operators of the okada and keke transport schemes. It is also unpopular with a few investors who were recently licensed to operate okada uber-like ride-hailing services, some of whom groaned that they had invested billions of naira in the scheme before the partial ban was announced. Because of the nature of the ride-hailing scheme, Gokada and OPay are the most affected by the state government’s decision. Thousands of workers are naturally left stranded, and investments in that peculiar and so far utterly chaotic transport sector are left in jeopardy.
Operators in the sector are miffed by the suddenness of the measure, and are apprehensive of the economic pressures the ban would mean for their families. It is true they got only a few weeks’ notice, though there had been rumours of an impending outright ban. When the partial ban eventually came, it was neither total nor even as far-reaching as many had feared. But it was still significant enough to elicit sporadic protests, some of which turned violent. The protesters have, however, not been able to win the propaganda war, though they have conducted a largely emotive campaign to get the government to reverse the ban. That they have failed is a reflection of the chaos the okada and keke operators have inflicted on the system. The state government has undoubtedly been lax in regulating the sector, but the keke and okada operators have themselves proved adamantly and deliberately resistant to whatever scant regulations the government has managed to enact.
Indications so far are that the state government is determined to stay the course. Not only will it not reverse itself, as officials of the state government have hinted, it is even likely to expand the reach of the ban. It hopes that if protests prove to be ineffective for whatever reasons, and fizzle out after a short duration, and the state is able to manage the aftershocks with the provision of better and more dignified alternatives, the partial ban may sometime in the near future be upgraded into a near total ban, save in some rural communities.
Lagosians have been substantially unsympathetic to the agonies of okada and keke operators, even though they were the patrons of the archaic transportation mode. Apart from the medical costs Keke and okada have brought upon commuters, they also worry about the security implication of the thousands and thousands of unregulated operators who flood the streets, flood into Lagos, and menace anyone with whom they have altercation. The police have also unearthed myriads of motorcycles used to smuggle weapons into various communities either for attacks or in preparation for attacks. Small arms have thus alarmingly found their way into the hands of thousands of sinister characters whose motives Lagosians cannot second-guess. Indeed, Lagosians fear that the suddenness of the ban could be partly explained by dire security reports, apart from the lawlessness, aggressiveness and excesses of some of the operators themselves.
If the partial ban is to succeed, and is to stand any chance of being expanded beyond the 15 council areas as it should, the state government must step up the provisions of the alternatives it has promised, particularly intensifying the intermodal and integrated transportation system it kick-started a few days ago. For now, the alternatives are insignificantly provocative. The state has promised over 500 more buses, scores of ferries, just as train services are expected to be restored not too long from now. Will these be enough to replace the thousands of okada and keke operators pushed away from prime routes? It is hard to say in the absence of reliable statistics. Lagosians, like the rest of the country, have become accustomed to a transport system that delivers them right to their doorsteps. They must now find ways to become used to walking some distance. They won’t find this funny; but needs must when the devil drives.
The state government must also appreciate that the Achilles heel that dooms their security and policy measures are the police themselves. Not only have they proved eternally and ethically insufficient to police neighbourhoods and safeguard government policies and measures adequately, they are also unable to blend with the demand of the state government and its security needs since they are neither controlled nor fully funded by the state. For instance, despite the fairly aggressive enforcement of the ban in the opening days of the ban, and regardless of the support Lagosians have given their government, the police and other security agents have been unable to time their enforcement beyond the early evenings. The banned keke and okada operators simply wait until dusk, when the security agents have exhausted themselves, before resuming their operations. If the ban in the affected areas cannot be fully enforced, it will leave room for laxity and eventual collapse of the measure, just as it happened in the past. By now, as many Lagosians will attest, malfeasant operators are used to outlasting the government, and they won’t in addition be averse to waiting patiently.
It is not surprising that Lagosians are sympathetic to the state government. The state is bursting at the seams with influx of opportunity seekers from all parts of the country, but the same state has finite resources to meet the health, education, and housing needs of the migrants. Worse, it does not even have the ability to police them. With a poorly structured federation, one that rewards slothful and criminally negligent states, and punishes the very few diligent and progressively modernising states, of which Lagos is chief, if not the only one, progress of any kind is likely to be accompanied and negated by more influx of desperate opportunity seekers. If not controlled, the influx could lead to an explosion sometime in the near future.
Lagos will do all it can to ameliorate the dire conditions forced on it by an increasingly stultified national political structure. The state deserves all the sympathies it can get, whether the partial okada/keke ban was sudden or not. The ban could of course have been better planned and more adroitly timed. But nevertheless, the public will find it impossible not to support Lagos because the alternatives facing the state over the continuing and unrestrained influx of opportunity seekers, not to say the consequent security nightmare the migrations evoke, are impossible to fathom. Lagos will do all it can to ameliorate the problems confronting it, but it is unlikely to get the success it deserves or the breakthrough commensurate and consistent with its vision for a megacity if the federal government does not appreciate the fact that no state, in a warped and unplanned federation, can so solve its problems that its inspiring success will not in turn become a magnet for fresh challenges provoked by migrants drawn to its lustre.
The Akinwumi Ambode administration left too many social and economic problems to fester in Lagos in its one-sided pursuit of gigantic building projects. Not only did the governor virtually abandon the other seemingly small social and economic issues, he also failed to focus on regulating the system, policing the influx of migrants, and nurturing and even sustaining the legal and regulatory frameworks that helped his predecessor, Babatunde Fashola, to impose some sanity on the system. In four years, that laxity led to an explosion of problems that the current governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, must now find the courage and the regulatory expertise to try and re-establish some order. It won’t be easy for a problem that is already precancerous, but if he does not begin to take drastic actions, such as the okada and keke ban, for fear of the political backlash, the repercussions will be too dire to handle. It is hoped that the state’s often cantankerous and opportunistic political class would not allow the partisan divide to discourage Mr Sanwo-Olu from re-imposing order.
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