Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sees no sign of global oil demand receding, rather, it expects it to rise to at least 120 million per barrel (mb/d) by 2050, according to its World Oil Outlook. OPEC also revised its estimate of global oil demand in 2045 to 118.9 million b/d, a 2.5percent upward revision on its 2023 estimate.
It forecasts demand growth to be driven by Asia, the Middle East and Africa, where it expects demand to rise by 22 million b/d between 2023 and 2050. OPEC’s long-term optimism contrasts with recent downward revisions to 2024 and 2025 demand growth forecasts.
It said Sept. 10 that global oil demand would grow by 2 million b/d in 2024-80,000 b/d less than the organization had forecast in August.
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The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which oversees the OPEC+ crude production agreement, would meet Oct. 2 to discuss oil markets and production policy. Near-term forecasts for global demand would play a crucial role in its strategy up to the end of 2024 and through 2025.
For 2025, it expects demand to rise a further 1.7 million b/d-a 40,000 b/d downward revision on its previous estimate. Non-OPEC+ supply will peak at 59 million b/d in the early 2030s, according to OPEC projections, and then decline to 57.3 million b/d by 2050.
OPEC also said that the industry would require a cumulative $17.4 trillion investment in upstream and downstream projects to meet the demand in 2050.