POLITICAL parties have got enough help from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to secure electoral success if they are intellectually enterprising enough. Presenting the 2019 voter register and electoral guidelines to the parties in Abuja during their quarterly consultative meeting last Monday, INEC disclosed that more than 84 million people had registered to vote. It immediately suggests that Nigeria’s estimated population figure of about 180m or more could be either realistic or an understatement, especially because nearly half of the voting age population probably never take the trouble of registering, and as everyone knows, the age group below 18 years is quite substantial in any population.
But this total figure alone may mean nothing to the parties. What should be significant to them is the breakdown done by INEC to explain the staggering figure. The accompanying geopolitical and statistical breakdown of the voting population should immediately alert a serious political party to make its pitch in the right direction and discover what electoral and permutational possibilities are available in order to secure victory. There was never anything like a monolithic South; it has also been clear for more than two decades that there is no longer anything like a monolithic North. It should then be clear to a determined political party what zonal combinations can be cobbled together to win the next polls.
INEC has been even more helpful. It tells the parties the age groups of the registered voters, a fact obviously needed to help the parties frame their narratives and hone their appeal around the peculiar demands and characteristics of the voters. For instance, the elderly and old age groups (51-70 plus) constitute a mere six million voters, while the youths (18-35) form a humongous 43 million voters. All a party needs to discover are the issues that preoccupy relevant age groups, especially the groups that matter for electoral harvest. A serious party, knowing that females form about 40 million of the voters, should be clear about what issues to put a lot of emphasis on. In addition, if they add into the mix and their platforms the issues that entrance the middle age group (36-50) of about 25 million voters, it is hard to see that political party not making a huge impact.
INEC may have needlessly entrapped itself in the controversy surrounding the appropriateness of giving Mrs Amina Zakari, an INEC commissioner connected to the president by marriage, a sensitive position in the electoral body, it has however done well to systematise the commission’s statistical presentation, indirectly energise politicking, and set parties tantalisingly along paths that foster electoral victory. But can the parties take advantage of the good turn done them by INEC, especially given the nearness of the next elections? It is doubtful but not altogether impossible. The parties may not be able to frame the most succinct narratives needed to grab the attention of the target age groups and zones, nor crystallise the requisite messages capable of addressing those interests, but they can try in the remaining five or more weeks to find the keys and roads into the hearts of voters at least fairly substantially enough to make a significant difference or even trump competition.
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