Population problem?

DOES Nigeria have a population problem? The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) seemed to think so, with a warning that, unless the economic base was expanded to create jobs for the massive products of the nation’s unrelenting procreative capacity, we face a ticking time bomb. That was three years ago, courtesy of the Director of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Department.

In 2016, the nation’s estimated population was 185 million, and according to the United Nations’ projection, Nigeria was going to earn the distinction of being the world’s third largest population in 2017. Of course, we have not had a reliable head count since 1973, and it is possible that the fear of overpopulation has no scientific foundation. But that notwithstanding, it is undeniable that our population growth rate is up north relative to the nation’s economic growth. This was the concern of CBN in 2016. With the economy growing at -2% and population growth was 3.5%, it was not a misplaced concern.

The figures are depressing; but those who couldn’t be bothered can dismiss them as abstract. However, they cannot dismiss the fallout of a sprinting population versus a limping economy. We see it in millions of unemployed and unemployable youths roaming the streets with hopelessness written boldly on their foreheads. It is obvious in the rising tide of anti-social and criminal activities. It is encapsulated in the unprecedented phenomenon of extreme poverty.

In a 2018 report, Brookings Institution estimated Nigeria’s population at 200 million, up from 185 million in 2016. But consistent with the fear expressed in the 2016 CBN report, the Brookings study concluded that Nigeria had overtaken India as the nation with the highest number (87 million) in extreme poverty. The report stated that Nigeria’s extreme poverty number was growing at the rate of six people per minute.

In a March 2019 report, the World Bank saw some light at the end of the poverty tunnel for Africa, noting that more Africans were escaping poverty than were falling into it. But while this was good news for Africa generally, the report saw significant challenges for Nigeria. While nearly 10 million people were expected to be lifted from poverty in Nigeria by 2030, the country’s share of absolute poverty will still rise by 20 million. When population increases too rapidly relative to economic growth, or conversely, when the economy grows too slowly relative to population, this is inevitable.

What then is to be done? The last sentence is to show that we don’t have just one problem of population growth. Rather, we have a joint problem of population and economic growth. As we know, China has the largest population in the world. But China’s growth continues to stun even its closest economic rival. Therefore, high population is only a liability when it is not matched by higher economic growth.

How did China do it? Where did Nigeria fail?

It is no longer a misery how the China miracle happened within only a short period. As Nigerian economist Ogho Okiti observes in an insightful paper, Nigeria and China’s economies were similar if not identical from 1960 to 1990 when Nigeria’s GDP growth rate was 4.2%. But from 1990, only 29 years ago, China embarked on a new approach to economic growth, the success of which catapulted her ahead of Nigeria. By 2016’ China “GDP per capital had grown to about $8,000 while Nigeria’s was a little over $2000—about a quarter of China’s.” Dr. Okiti then asked the obvious question: “How did the gap between two countries that were at par only 26 years ago become so large?” His answer referenced the reforms that China made after the regime of Mao Zedong in the late 1970s.

However, if we looked at some of the highlighted reforms that China embarked upon, which makes it one of the fastest growing economies in the world, they are not different from what Nigeria also attempted, albeit, on paper. Indeed, a few of those reforms were not applicable to Nigeria. For instance, one of the reforms that Dr. Okiti mentioned was “de-collectivizing the agricultural sector, allowing private production by farmers”. Well, Nigeria had always had a de-collectivized agricultural sector. Therefore, if de-collectivization helped China, Nigeria, which has always allowed private production by farmers should be way ahead of China in agricultural production.

A second reform approach by China that Okiti addressed was “establishing Special Economic Zones..where new free market policies could be tested.” Again, Nigeria has always had free market policies at least on paper. But in fact, it also at least lately adopted the creation of Special Free Trade Zones since the beginning of the present republic.  Third, Dr. Okiti mentioned the policy of “allowing foreign investment” by China as one of those reforms. Given its communist past’ this new approach certainly helped China. However, Nigeria had never prevented foreign investment. Indeed, foreign direct investment has always been prioritized, at least since 1960.

Fourth on Dr. Okiti’s list was “privatizing some state-owned companies” by China. While Nigeria lagged behind China in the matter of privatization, we should note that this was a focal point of the Obasanjo administration’s economic agenda beginning in 1999 with the privatization of the communications, aviation, power and energy industries, among others. If China started the process of privatization in 1990, that’s about nine years ahead of Nigeria, perhaps we can give ourselves some time to catch up. Perhaps!

The final list of reforms on China’s economic liberalization policy mentioned by Dr. Okiti was “removing price controls on some products.” This was smart of China because it had the effect of encouraging businesses to focus on profit while making goods available to consumers. If Nigeria’s experience was to be invoked here, we know that price control never worked as rent control policies teach us.

Now, from the above, we could draw two inferences. Some of the economic reforms that China made in the 1990s were not applicable to Nigeria. Second, regarding the applicable ones, Nigeria also embarked on them with different results. Think NEPA!

However, China also undertook a major reform of the education sector. As Dr. Okiti puts it, China “reformed the educational system—increasing the focus on science and technology research and sending pupils to study abroad to develop skills that China did not have.” Needless to add, Nigeria which started well ahead of China and India in the matter of educational advancement failed spectacularly in maintaining its lead.

In the military era, we moved from one policy to another without serious attention to the needs of the nation. Indeed, sadly, we once pursued a policy of stymieing the educational progress of some parts of the country so that some other parts may catch on. Shortly after independence, there was a deliberate policy of sending Nigerian students abroad on federal scholarship. They came back with skill-sets to push the nation forward in applied science and technology. But subsequent national military leadership frustrated them. And we stopped the policy altogether in the years of structural adjustment. About the same time, China and India forged ahead. Their foreign-trained students were put in charge of technological revolution which paid off handsomely. In our case, our universities and research institutions were abandoned to their fate.

Finally, Okiti referred to the “spectacular infrastructural development” which China embarked upon as part of its reforms. This not only put its people to work, but with dramatic increase in railway mileage, road mileage and electricity wattage, it also transformed its economy beyond agriculture to the height of technological achievements. Nigeria, on the other hand, is just now taking seriously the importance of infrastructure in the economy of the 21st century.

China took a decision to make its population a blessing. Nigeria too can. However, should we find this an impossible task, there is an alternative in family planning and birth control policies if we can overcome the cultural and religious objections to such policies. At any rate, it is certain that if we do nothing to bridge the widening gulf caused by a galloping population growth and a dawdling economic growth, we will not escape the ensuing social and political crisis.