Rain-ready?

•Nigeria must prepare itself to comprehensively combat flooding this year

AS Lagos State struggles to recover from the devastating flooding of May 20, it has become imperative that Nigeria enhance its ability to reduce the destruction and loss of life caused by flood disasters.

Last year was a particularly bad year for flooding in the country. Rains which began in July 2018 and ended in September caused the Niger and Benue rivers to burst their banks, resulting in floods which affected 34 of the nation’s 36 states. It caused an estimated 141 deaths, 265 injuries and displaced thousands of citizens. It was the worst flood disaster to hit the country since 2012, when assets worth an estimated US$ 10 billion were destroyed.

The severe flooding in Lagos last week is an indication of what to expect if extensive preventive and remedial measures are not taken. Such responses may be divided into three main parts – the development of functional early-warning systems, the establishment of damage-limitation measures, and the provision of comprehensive relief efforts.

Early-warning systems are centred upon the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMet) whose responsibility it is to provide the nation with accurate forecasts of the timing, location, intensity and duration of rainfall across Nigeria in any given year.

For 2019, the agency has predicted that the rainy season is very likely to be delayed in most parts of the country, especially the north. This is due to the weather phenomenon known as El Nino. NiMet’s Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) estimates forecast March 7, 2019 as the earliest onset date around the south-south zone, while June 16, 2019 was predicted as the earliest onset date for the northern region.

If the SRP is to be effective, it must be properly localised. This means sending location-specific SRPs to all at-risk areas rather than just making general announcements. NiMet cannot proclaim that it has done its duty simply because it has issued a national SRP for the year. Coastal locations and settlements on the banks of major rivers, especially the Niger and Benue, must be provided with up-to-date data on predicted rainfall patterns so that they know what is likely to happen.

Despite its limitations, NiMet’s 2019 SRP has provided a useful framework for action in the various states and local governments, but it is doubtful whether proper advantage is being taken of such forecasts. With the possible exception of Lagos, it is not certain that many of the country’s larger towns and cities have regular drainage-clearance, desilting and other flood-abatement programmes.

Such negligence is worsened by a continuing refusal to take town-planning laws seriously. Nigeria’s rapid urbanisation is characterised by the expansion of slums, the filling-in of waterways and canals, as well as the occupation of flood plains.

There is no alternative to resolute action on the part of the authorities to remove the illegal construction which worsens the devastation caused by flooding. Instead of allowing informal settlements to grow until they become too big to control, pre-emptive measures should be taken to stop them from expanding the moment they appear.

Government responses to flood disasters are repeatedly characterised by incompetence, inefficiency and corruption. Search-and-rescue efforts are often uncoordinated and arbitrary. Emergency supplies do not reach victims in good time and are sometimes diverted. Displacement camps are often too few to accommodate the homeless.

These challenges can be better addressed through proper planning. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) must be adequately equipped and resourced to respond quickly to flood disasters wherever they occur. The agency should enhance cooperation with its counterparts in the states and humanitarian organisations like the Nigerian Red Cross Society.

Long-term solutions must also be established to reduce the devastation caused by floods. These include ecosystem-based approaches such as tree-planting campaigns, widening natural flood plains and protecting wetlands. Greater care should be taken in the implementation of land-reclamation and urban expansion schemes.

The citizenry must also be more aware of the negative practices which aggravate flooding, especially the disposal of non-biodegradable waste and rubbish into gutters and drains.