From being underrated and likened to a band of rag-tag, amateurish, illiterate folks few years ago, the Boko Haram Islamic sect metamorphosed into the ‘world’s most lethal terrorist group’ –deadlier than ISIS, Al-Qaeda. No thanks to the sect’s unrelenting attacks, the 2015 Global Terrorism Index, GTI, ranked Nigeria as the third most terrorized country in the world. According to the Borno State governor – Kashim Shettima, Boko Haram’s sporadic eight years insurgency has led to the death of 100,000 and displacement of two million people (IDPs) in North-east. The Crises Group believes that famine, food crises is in the offing.
While the Buhari administration and the military hierarchy frequently bluster how Boko Haram has been conquered or ‘’technically defeated’’, pragmatic evidence suggests that the Islamic sect is resilient against all odds and may likely remain a threat in the foreseeable future. A somewhat conservative and not quite up-to-date data culled from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) says that up till June, ‘’Boko Haram masterminded at least 48 attacks—successful and unsuccessful in Nigeria’’. If the sequence of attacks from the second week of June to second week of August is factored in, the above data will definitely skyrocket.
As recent as August 1, purportedly defeated Boko Haram insurgents overran – Mildu, a community in Madagali Local Government Area of Adamawa State killing seven people, injuring scores and torching houses. Boko Haram’s relentless attacks, killings, abductions and mayhem do not foretell a sect that has been defeated. They are resilient and still very much a threat. A 2016 Country Reports on Terrorism released by the United States Department of State Bureau of Counter-terrorism released on July 19, and obtained by ThisDay newspaper, asserts that ‘’the Nigerian military lacks capacity to hold captured territories in northeast Nigeria’’. The candid report goes further to state that, “Despite gains made by the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF), much of its reported progress was merely duplication of failed efforts carried over from the end of last dry/fighting season,” adding: “The Nigerian military was unable to hold and rebuild civilian structures and institutions in those areas it had cleared.” It further faulted the decision of the federal government to return internally displaced people (IDPs) to their original place of abode, saying that this was being done without adequate security.
The counter-insurgency operation in North-east is characterized by flip-flops, alibi’s. According to The Guardian of March 31, Major General Enenche reportedly admitted that ‘’the real Boko Haram leader, Shekau is still alive’’. Said he: “… we are aware, and have come to know that the real Shekau is yet to be apprehended. It is because there are so many faces of Shekau that brought the mix-up, but the real Shekau is yet to be caught, and we will get him”. On July 22, ThisDay reported that the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Lt. Gen. Tukur Buratai, gave a 40-day ultimatum to Major General Ibrahim Attahiru, the Theatre Commander of Operation Lafiya Dole in the North-east, to capture Boko Haram’s leader, Abubakar Shekau, dead or alive. Announcing the ultimatum, the Director of Army Public Relations, Brig. Gen. Sani Usman, said, “The Theatre Commander has further been directed to do so within 40 days’’. Capture a man you severally claimed is dead?
Not to be outdone, the Nigerian Air Force (NAF) bandies an alibi why it struggles to rein in Boko Haram. The latest of such defence is that thunderstorm and rainfall impacted negatively on its operations in the north-east. But thunderstorm and rainfall does not occur night and day, non-stop in the north-east. In a related development, the Nigerian military initially claimed it rescued 10 abducted University of Maiduguri and NNPC oil workers but their claim turned out to be falsehood. The military tendered an apology thereafter for misleading the public. The Defence Headquarters also blamed recent Boko Haram attacks in Borno State on the information the insurgents get from informants. Defence Spokesman, Major General John Enenche stated this on Monday, July 31, on Channels Television breakfast programme, Sunrise Daily. Reacting to the attack on the crude oil exploration team in Borno, Enenche noted that unless the terrorists were given adequate information about the progress of the exploration exercise, the team would not have fallen into the ambush. This penchant for untenable, hogwash, half-truths is why many Nigerians seldom trust the security agencies. If the insurgents upped the ante as a result of information from informants, it follows that the military’s counter-intelligence capability leaves much to be desired. Did the military not carry out risk assessment, surveillance before embarking on the escort? If the military with their sophisticated weaponry and expertise cannot safely escort the crude oil explorers, what is the fate of locals, civilians, and humanitarian staff working in the north-east?
It appears Nigeria’s current effort is on ‘’de-radicalization’’ of the terrorists at the expense of prosecution or conviction. We hear almost on a daily basis how a senior Boko Haram “Commander” was arrested but nothing is ever heard about them standing trial. In August 2016, Nigeria’s National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) says it presented relief items to a group of 800 former Boko Haram members who recently denounced their membership of the group. The repentant insurgents are being camped at a military-controlled facility known as ‘’Safe Corridor’’ in Gombe State where they are undergoing rehabilitation and de-radicalization programmes. Lately, 43 Boko Haram insurgents who supposedly surrendered to troops of Operation Lafiya Dole were air-lifted to join other ‘repentant’ insurgents in the said Safe Corridor programme in Gombe.
The Senate stitched up an anti-terrorism law known as the Terrorism (prevention) Act which prescribed death penalty for individuals found guilty of terrorism. Nearly 10 years into Boko Haram’s insurgency and blistering terrorist attacks, there’s very sparse information as to the number of people (if any) convicted for terrorism or terrorist activities in Nigeria. Is Nigeria’s anti-terrorism law, a paper-tiger?
Having tested the efficacy of kidnap-for-ransom-and-prisoner-swap-deals, recalcitrant, remorseless Boko Haram militants will continue to deploy this bargaining chip stock-in-trade. Predictably, the sect reportedly kidnapped about 10 women, part of a police/military convoy abducted along Damboa road, outside Maiduguri, Borno State. Just like the initial denial of the Chibok school girls’ abduction, the Nigerian government/police also denied the abduction of these women. It was after Boko Haram’s leader – Shekau released a video of the 10 distraught women that the Nigerian authorities owned up. Similarly, the Boko Haram faction purportedly loyal to IS-supported Abu Mus’ab Al-Barnawi is reportedly responsible for the recent ambush, attack and abduction of some University of Maiduguri staff that were part of a crude oil exploration team in Borno State. According to an aid agency worker, the death toll from the aforesaid attack stands at 69.
There’s no gainsaying the fact that Nigeria has made progress in containing Boko Haram but asserting that Boko Haram has been defeated is fallacious. There’s urgent need to rejig Nigeria’s counterterrorism strategy, intelligence gathering capabilities. Nigeria’s anti-terrorism law must not be a paper-tiger sacrificed at the altar of an untested de-radicalization programme. Prosecuting terrorists, their sponsors, financiers promptly will also serve as a deterrent. Folks who do crime must be ready to do time.
- Okereke is a security analyst/consultant, writer.