One of the challenges Nigeria is grappling with today, as it was in 2010, is unemployment – especially youth unemployment. If it was a challenge in 2010, it is critical now. The Next Generation pointed this out in its report. “Young Nigerians,” it stated “are increasingly frustrated by their lack of opportunities, and there are signs of new movements emerging to campaign for change. The next generation can make a huge contribution to Nigeria’s future, but if its potential is not harnessed, it will become an increasingly disruptive force.”
Preventing the emergence of this ‘disruptive force’ is to focus on economic growth to create jobs and business growth opportunities, but unfortunately this has not been the case. Nigeria therefore urgently needs to develop a thorough action plan for its next generation. In 2010, policymakers were faced with a dearth of robust data on the country’s future challenges, challenges that has now been compounded by insecurity.
In order to assist policymaker tread this torturous path, the report made a couple of recommendations. It advised that investment in people must be substantially boosted. The government should set targets for increasing expenditure on education and health, using oil revenue to fund both infrastructure and recurrent spending, while ensuring that existing funds are spent more efficiently. The priorities for education are to develop skills that lead to employment through expansion of vocational training, and to tackle the gross inequalities in educational provision that threaten Nigeria’s integrity as a cohesive society.
Secondly, it recommended rapid improvements in the health sector especially by addressing very high levels of child mortality. Regions with low health standards need emergency funding to build effective primary health systems, with a focus on maternal and child health care. The needs of young families must also be put at the heart of the Nigerian policy agenda. With better health and education, parents will choose to invest more in fewer children, giving those children a much better chance of living a prosperous, secure and fulfilled life. Creating pro-family policies must be a priority for the Nigerian government.
Nine years down the line, the recommendation that: “without remedial action, the crisis in the job market will worsen rapidly as growing numbers of young Nigerians enter the workforce. Nigeria needs to create almost 25 million jobs over the next ten years if it is to offer work to new entrants, and halve current unemployment,” has caught up with the country.
To navigate the cul-de-sac, Nigeria needs to develop the infrastructure that will underpin a world class economy, spending up to an additional 4% of GDP on this task. It should diversify away from oil, with an emphasis on sectors that will improve employment prospects for young people, while removing obstacles to economic growth and private enterprise.
The previous and present governments have toyed with interventions like Sure-P, N-Power and their offshoots to close the unemployment gap, but these interventions have fallen short in addressing the challenge. The report highlighted that the oil industry contributes as much as 40% to national GDP, but is highly capital-intensive and employs only a tiny fraction of the population. Other industries still in their infancy offer greater potential to Nigeria and Nigerians: communications; manufacturing (textiles, clothing and footwear; automobiles); and the mining of resources other than oil.
Furthermore, it emphasised a fact that has been blowing in the wind for decades now; Nigeria must tap into the energies of the next generation, releasing its innovative and entrepreneurial potential and ensuring that young people have better opportunities for political expression. It should also harness the potential of its diaspora to provide opportunities for the young and for new ideas, investments, and contacts.
If the country had walked this path what would have been the outcome? “With the right policies for the next generation, Nigeria’s aspiration to become one of the world’s largest 20 economies is within reach. If Nigeria’s leaders make the wrong choices today, the country will suffer the consequences for many decades to come – and Nigeria’s development breakthrough could be forever lost.”
A frightening prognosis you would say. Without doubt the country is suffering the consequences of making the wrong choices which has left millions of our youth jobless. In the past few years industries and businesses that ought to have provided jobs have closed shop. The Boko Haram insurgency and the upsurge in kidnappings and banditry are taking a tool as scarce resources are being channeled to address growing security challenges. The danger in this is that emphasis is shifting from discussing how the economy can grow and provide jobs. The outcome is glaring for all to see: runaway unemployment.
The report also harped on Nigeria’s rising population pointing out that such rapid growth – which stood at158 million in 2010, now 198 million – will definitely place enormous strains on any society. “In Nigeria, fertility rose through the first quarter century after independence, with each woman bearing an average of seven children in the mid-1980s. During this period, infant mortality, while still shockingly high, was falling. The result was unsurprising: growing numbers of large families faced a constant struggle to subsist.”
In 2010, over 40 per cent of Nigerians were under fifteen, while three per cent are over retirement age. That means there is only slightly more than one adult of working age available to take care of each dependent in the population, a ratio that worsened after independence and is now barely higher than it was in 1960.
“Any country with so few working age adults and so many children is likely to find economic progress exceedingly difficult to achieve. Throughout the post-independence period, Nigerians have devoted substantial resources to feeding, clothing, housing, educating, and securing the health of their children. This has come at a significant short-term cost, diverting funds that could have been used to construct factories, invest in infrastructure, or build the institutions needed to support a modern economy. Nigeria’s post-independence generation has sacrificed its own prospects in order to make a substantial investment in their children’s survival.”
It is therefore not difficult to gauge why the report came to the conclusion that the economic impact was predictable. “Between 1980 and 2006, Nigeria’s economy barely kept up with its surging population, with incomes barely higher today than they were 30 years ago. Over the past generation, Nigeria has fallen far behind its international competitors, most of whom have enjoyed much more favourable demographic conditions during this period.”
Demography is clearly not the only factor in Nigeria’s underwhelming economic performance over the past 50 years. Better education, healthcare, and governance would have all helped the country grow faster, but providing these services was complicated by rapid population growth. Nigeria has been struggling against a powerful demographic tide ever since independence.
Is there a silver lining somewhere? The report answered in the affirmative by stressing that “this demographic tide is finally turning in Nigeria’s favour. For half a century, Nigeria may have faced tough demographic conditions, but over the next 50 years, demography will begin to work in its favour. This will provide the country with opportunities on a scale that few richer countries can look forward to.”
The drivers of change are easy to understand. For a generation now, Nigerian women have been choosing to have fewer children, following a pattern seen in countries across the world as they develop (though current levels of fertility in Nigeria are still relatively high). As health standards improve, babies have a much greater chance of surviving to adulthood. For a while, family size grows rapidly, but parents soon adjust, choosing to focus their energies and resources on ensuring that a smaller number of children have the chance of a better life.
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