Russia posed a grave danger to the world order with the Russo-Ukrainian war. Whether this was a result of a typical security concern, or whether it had deeper reasons that have not surfaced should be a topic of inquiry. Russian side, initially, justified the ‘intervention’ as saving her compatriots abroad. Nevertheless, the West knows that even that being the case, the war was extremely destabilizing of the established world order.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine marks a decisive end to the post-Cold War security regime that governed the strained but stable relations between the West and Russia and guaranteed the independence of East European countries and former Soviet republics in the last three decades. The invasion threatens the security of small nations and reinforces the illiberal turn in world politics by challenging the body of rights and democratic norms that gained ascendancy in the 1990s. African opinion and policy makers should understand what this portends for the continent.
Ever since he came to power in 2000, Putin has been obsessed with recreating the boundaries of the Soviet Union as Russian territory. In 2005, he told the world that the collapse of the Soviet Union “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century” and a “genuine tragedy” for the Russian people as “tens of millions” of Russians found themselves outside of Russian territory (BBC, 2005). His strategic view of the world is a throwback to the Concert of Europe of the 19th century in which the great powers had vested interests and spheres of influence, intervened in the internal affairs of small states and acted collectively to maintain a balance of power or security in Europe. Such a system is antithetical to the current multilateral norms and arrangements that seek to curb unilateralist behaviour by states.
However, with the increased Russian involvement in Africa’s extractive sector, which has a history of corruption, bad deals and illicit transfers, it is unlikely to be different from the West’s, and recently China’s pillage of the continent’s resources and impoverishment of its people. In Honest Account 2017, Global Justice Now (2017) reports that in 2015, Africa as a whole was a net debtor to the rest of the world (largely Western countries) by $41.4 billion. In other words, more resources ($203 billion — through tax avoidance, debt payments and resource extraction) were taken out of the continent than flowed in ($161.6 billion — through loans, remittances and aid). The Thabo Mbeki-led African Union-Economic Commission for Africa’s own panel (2015) estimates that $50 billion leave Africa as illicit financial flows every year. And War on Want (2016) reports that about 100, mostly British, companies listed on the London Stock Exchange control more than $1 trillion worth of resources in just five commodities — oil, gold, diamonds, coal and platinum; and a quarter of those companies are registered in tax havens. Russia’s quest for raw materials may spur enhanced greed and dirty tricks, as it tries to compensate for lost opportunities in the West. This may aggravate Africa’s resource drain.
Russia is also likely to push African countries to transition to nuclear energy, where it has a huge advantage, citing the continent’s large deficit in power generation. About 600 million Africans are estimated to be without access to electricity. Nuclear energy was one of the agenda items in the 2019 Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi attended by 42 African leaders. Russia is in negotiations with most North African countries, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Ghana, Zambia and Rwanda to sign nuclear energy deals, and has committed to provide 80 per cent of the funds to build Egypt’s first nuclear power plant for a whopping $25 billion.
Most importantly, Russia has a poor record in large scale infrastructure projects. Despite Nigeria sinking more than $10 billion into the Ajaokuta iron and steel project, the Russian company, TyazhPromExport, contracted to build the plant in 1976 failed to produce a single steel before the project was abandoned in 1994. The failure of the Ajaokuta steel project has been a huge blow to Nigeria’s quest for industrialisation. Nuclear reactors are expensive, capital intensive, take years to build, and have high maintenance and safety costs. African countries should be wary of incurring unsustainable debts and permanent dependence on Russia to run and maintain reactors. It is not surprising that South Africa cancelled its agreement with Russia for a second nuclear plant in 2017, citing cost, after an environmental group successfully challenged the government in court.
Surely, there must be cheaper and safer green energy alternatives — such as solar, hydro and wind power — to nuclear reactors in solving Africa’s electricity problem.
The effects of price rises depend on whether a country is a net exporter or importer. For the big oil producers, such as Nigeria, Angola, Gabon, Libya, Algeria, Republic of Congo, Ghana, Equatorial Guinea and Chad, the price increase in oil is likely to be a boon as state revenues will increase, especially if production is ramped up. Gas producers like Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Angola and Equatorial Guinea may also take advantage of the cancellation of the Russo-German Nordstream 2 oil pipeline if they can invest in the infrastructure for supplying gas across the Mediterranean into Europe (Iyora, 2022). Additionally, the vast majority of African countries do not produce oil or, if they do, are net importers. For these countries, the global oil price hike has translated into a sharp rise in the prices of petrol and related products as well as increases in transport fares. A similar problem can be observed for grains. The important wheat producers in Africa are South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Nigeria. However, all these countries are net importers. While the rise in wheat prices may improve the incomes of local farmers, it may hurt consumers as bread, pasta, noodles, biscuits and cakes become expensive.
Hence, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the current standoff between Russia and the West threaten world peace. The doctrine of spheres of influence, which informs Putin’s invasion, is dangerous not only for former Soviet republics but also for African countries and other small nations around the world. It provides justification for redrawing boundaries, annexing countries and undermining the territorial integrity of states, which is a fundamental principle of the UN. The isolation of Russia through the West’s punitive sanctions may not only adversely impact Africa through oil, wheat and other grain price hikes, it may also create a fortress Russia that will pursue an aggressive policy in Africa and other weak regions in order to gain allies, markets, raw materials and diversification of its external relations. This is likely to impact African politics negatively as equally beleaguered rogue African politicians that do not want to give up power may sign up for Russian protection. In this new dynamic, Western countries may be forced to abandon their already questionably support for Africa’s troubled democracy project and engage African countries through the prism of their rivalry with Russia.
The invasion has done profound damage to Russia’s relations with the West, which will be difficult to reverse as long as Putin and likeminded people around him are in power. Africa should brace itself for the challenging years ahead.
- Oladeji writes from Lagos.