The raging controversy on the Muslim-Muslim ticket appears to have completely overshadowed and obscured the main issue of the need for power shift to the southern part of the country. Hardly is anyone talking about the propriety of a southern presidency after eight years of President Muhammadu Buhari from the north.
Instead, the nation is suffused and consumed with the issue of the religious faith of the APC presidential candidate’s running mate, Kashim Shettima, a Muslim. The result is that the south is unfortunately distracted and sucked into a vortex of religiosity by a cacophony of deafening noises of bigotry in a crass display of mindless political naivety and insensitivity to the fundamental issue of electing a president from the southern part of the country.
Most southerners enamoured of their religious faith feel highly incensed, outraged and aggrieved by a Muslim-Muslim ticket that in their resentment they are prepared to vote for another eight years of northern Muslim president with southern Christian vice president than vote for a southern Muslim president with northern Muslim vice president. Their reason for this absurdity is that their religious faith is captured in the former ticket while it is absent in the latter, making religion the primary consideration in their decision to jettison the political expediency of a southern presidency.
The south needs to be reminded that the present democratic political dispensation right from its inception in 1999 came to address specifically the political imbroglio arising from the perceived injustice meted out to late Chief MKO Abiola (from the southern part of the country) when the June 12, 1993 elections he was adjudged to be the winner was annulled by a military president from the northern part of the country. It took the wise adoption of the geopolitics of rotational presidency between the south and the north to assuage the south and resolve the ensuing political debacle that threatened the corporate existence of the country.
This principle of oscillating the presidency between the two main regions of the south and the north has become entrenched in our politics as a mechanism for political stability to the point that when it was breached in 2014 by the then President Jonathan from the south, he was promptly voted out as the north refused to back his ambition for a second term, claiming that it was their turn to produce the next president and I hope the same fate should await Atiku in 2023.
Prior to the primaries, the issue of a southern presidency was the hottest topic on the political horizon that pitched the south against the north and culminated in the famous Asaba Declaration of the 17 southern governors when they declared that southern presidency was not negotiable. The north after much political brinkmanship and hot air allowed wise counsel to prevail and agreed to work for the emergence of a southerner in the ruling APC. As the mainstream northern political establishment has committed to power shift to the south with their support for Tinubu, it behoves the south to complement this support by throwing their full electoral weight behind Tinubu’s candidacy. The Southwest historically never fail to back their leader who emerges at the national stage. Those claiming that Osun election was about Tinubu are totally mistaken. Osun election was about the local politics of the Adelekes, Oyetolas and Aregbesolas; Tinubu was not on the ballot. It will be a different story when he is on the ballot as the only Yoruba man running for the Presidency on the platform of the ruling party. His winning votes will come from Southwest, Northwest, Northeast and North-central. Atiku’s votes are scattered in the Northwest, Northeast and North-central. He will fight and struggle for votes with Tinubu in virtually every zone in the North which will deprive him of the ability to consolidate northern votes significantly enough to win the election. His hitherto Southeast base has been decimated by the Peter Obi movement and the South-south may not even fare better given the toxic political climate generated by the issue of his running mate.
Peter Obi, despite the hype about the growing popularity of his candidacy among the youth, is yet to trend in the north, the warehouse of decisive votes in every presidential election. It is difficult for his candidacy to fly in the region because he is not a product of a brokered political agreement. Northern votes are not available in the open market for a candidate to scoop up and coast to victory by the charm offensive of the personality traits of integrity and competence as being paraded by supporters of the candidate. Their votes are under lock and key and delivered to any one the political establishment has agreed to give power. The shepherds of the northern votes are their leaders and you can only access the massive votes in the region through them but it has to be negotiated and agreed upon based on certain conditions before they are delivered en bloc and this is why they say they are the kingmakers. Their votes are not available through social media activism otherwise the Obi-dient campaign should have gained traction in the region.
From the foregoing, it’s clear that Tinubu remains the only hope for a southern presidency in 2023 and the south must rally behind him or risk an extension of the northern presidency for another eight years and should not complain about northern domination in the circumstances.
- Agbachi is a public affairs analyst based in Abuja