The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had boasted that it will rule for 60 years. But, the ruling party, contrary to its projection, will assume the role of opposition next month. Assistant Editor LEKE SALAUDEEN examines the lessons of the transition from a ruling party to an opposition platform.
Amidst fear and uncertainty, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) braved all odds and conducted what has been adjudged by foreign and local observers as free, fair and credible Presidential election. The outcome of the election has changed the political equation in the country. For the first time in the history of Nigeria, the opposition has sent the ruling party packing. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that has been in power since 1999 will be in opposition as from May 29, when President-elect. Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) will be inaugurated.
Apart from winning the presidential election, the APC has the majority in the Senate with 60 senators-elect, while the PDP has 49 out of 109 members of the Upper Chamber of the National Assembly. Similarly, the configuration in the House of Representatives has changed in favour of the APC out of 360 members, APC has 214. With these results, the APC will dominate the Eighth National Assembly. It will, based on its numerical strength, produce the principal officers: Senate President, Deputy Senate President, Majority Leader and Chief Whip. In the House of Representatives, APC will produce six out of the 10 principal officers in the House: Speaker, Deputy Speaker, Majority Leader, Deputy House Leader, Chief Whip and Deputy Whip. The PDP will contend with Minority Leader, Deputy Minority Leader, Minority Whip, and Deputy Minority Whip.
The major fall out of the election is the waning popularity of the PDP in states where it had consistently held sway. Apart from losing the governorship in many of its erstwhile strongholds, the party lost governorship in many of them, failed to win senatorial seat, produce members of House of Representatives, and failed to produce majority members in the Houses of Assembly. For instance, APC won all senatorial, House of Representatives and House of Assembly seats in Kano State where PDP used to hold sway since 1999, except in 2007 when it lost the governorship to the defunct All Nigeria Peoples’ Party (ANPP).
There are lessons to learn from the fall of the PDP.
Sovereign Power
One major lesson of the election is that the sovereign power belongs to the people. The era of political parties taking people for granted is gone. Nigerians are very conscious of their rights; they know with their votes is they can install or remove government that failed to perform. The turn-out of voters on March 28 presidential election bears testimony to this. Despite the shift in the election date from February 14 to March 28, people still clamoured for change of leadership. They were tired of the PDP government that have been in power for 16 years without making positive impact in their life.
Civil rights activist Comrade Moshood Erubami said, if the election was shifted to December, it will not stop people from voting out President Jonathan from office. He said: “People have made up their mind on a government that has failed in its primary responsibility of securing lives and property, that failed to provide stable power supply and that promotes corruption and mismanaged the economy.”
Erubami said what is being witnessed today is the strong will of the people coupled with the commitment and determination to effect a change. The people have tolerated the PDP in the past 16 years. They squandered the goodwill invested in them. They dashed the hope of the common man. They installed the reign of impunity, brigandage and anything that goes. They have forgotten the day of reckon they have forgotten that people would hold them accountable for all they did while in power. It was too late for the PDP to appease the minds of the people who had waited to cheat them a lesson that you can deceive people for some time, not all the time.
Religious/ethnic sentiment
The issues of ethnic and religious differences became pronounced under the Jonathan presidency. In the build up to 2015 elections, Jonathan polarised the country into the North-South dichotomy. His political godfather, Chief Edwin Clark, formed the Southern Assembly comprising handpicked leaders from the 17 states in the South. The purpose was to prepare ground for Jonathan’s re-election in 2015. Clark also infiltrated the north by wooing the leaders of the Middle Belt who are mainly Christians.
Few months to the election President Jonathan was hopping from one church to the other, canvassing support for his re-election.
Attempts to use religious sentiments to get electoral advantage did not work. Student activist Victor Akpofure said Nigerians are too sophisticated that nobody can use religion to determine whom to vote for. A ccording to him, the poverty on the land does not know whether you are Christian or a Muslim. What Nigerians voted for on March 28 was a leader that has the capacity to resore the glory of this country irrespective of tribe or religion.
Spendthrift
The power of incumbency could not save President Jonathan from losing the presidential election. He has access to public funds to buy his way through. The last two months preceding election showed how President Jonathan turned electioneering campaign into “cash and carry” matter. He relocated to the Southwest with a view to winning the votes in the region.
It was alleged that individuals and groups visited by President Jonathan came out with broad smile after being enriched with dollars or naira. One of those who attended a town hall meetings addressed by the President in Lagos confided in our reporter that he refused to collect the dollars offered him after the programme. He said the question that came to his mind was that if the President can use this money to bribe people so that they can vote for him, why can’t he use the money to fix roads, provide electricity, equip schools and hospitals?
Another participant who collected the money said the reason why he didn’t reject it was because he knew it was public fund. “I consider it my own share of the national cake. However, I didn’t vote for Jonathan or PDP in all elections”, he stated.
The naira and dollar splashed by the President and his party, could not sway peoples to vote for PDP. Nigerians based their voting on performance.
Impunity
The Jonathan administration has no regard for the rule of law. It is intolerant of the opposition. President Jonathan has used the security apparatus to deal with his perceived enemies. At a stage Nigerians were becoming apprehensive over what appears to be the blossoming of the Goodluck Jonathan administration into a full -fledged dictatorship. They are worried that the presidency is steadily descending into despotism with assault on the freedom expression, the press and the use of national institutions against opposition.
For instance, the President unleashed the military to stop opposition governors — Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers and Adams Oshiomhole — to attend a rally organised by the APC in Ado-Ekiti on the eve of the governorship election in Ekiti in July last year. The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Alhaji Aminu Tambuwal, also tasted the bitter pill of military assault. He was shabbily treated at the venue of a security seminar in Kaduna, Kaduna State. Other dignitaries were allowed free entry, the soldiers on duty insisted that Tambuwal’s official car must be searched. He was forced to disembark and trek to the venue. The soldiers also said they were acting on orders from above.
The Inspector-General of Police withdrew Tambuwal’s security details shortly after he defected from PDP to APC. The police boss backed his action by saying Tambuwal was no longer Speaker. However, the same IG has reinstated Tambuwal’s security aides.
To analysts the growing intolerance and impunity of the Presidency pose a major threat to our hard-earned democracy. They argued these acts of interdiction by the government are unconstitutional as they breached Section 41 of the 1999 Constitution, which guarantees freedom of movement to every Nigerian.
Corruption
President Jonathan’s posture against the monster called ‘corruption’, which appears to be the root cause of many of the country’s woes, is unimpressive. Jonathan who made war against corruption, the mantra of his administration was founding wanting. His body language, according to Speaker, House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal, encourages corruption. The Pension Fund Scam, $20 billion missing oil money, N10 billion allegedly spent on jet maintenance by Petroleum Minister, Diezani Allison-Madueke, the bullet- proof car scandal involving ex-Minister of Aviation, Ms Sarah Oduah and many others counted against Jonathan.This has provided grounds for the opposition to take the administration to the cleaners.
Jonathan has a poor public image due to his failure to wage a spirited war against corruption, leakages in the oil industry, including oil theft and pipelines vandalism. One of the perceived weaknesses that have cast the Jonathan administration in bad light is less than forceful Presidential presence and ineffective deployment and application of presidential power in calling people around him to order. This has to do with the President’s perceived inability to deal with the mediocrity within his kitchen cabinet. His actions suggest that he accommodates mediocre elements within his inner circle and that he lacks the will to show them the door.
Economic Mismanagement
There are ominous signs that the country is broke. Since last year the Federal Government has reduced the states monthly allocations from the Federation Account. As a result, many states owe workers salaries and lack funds to prosecute developmental projects. Yet, the Jonathan administration claims that with rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Nigeria’s economy is now the first in Africa and 26th in the world. But Nigerians are not impressed with statistics that do not reflect the true situation on ground.
More than a year after the rebased GDP was announced, the living conditions of the Nigerians have been progressively nose diving and pathetic. Economic growth without jobs and food on the table means nothing to common people. The unemployment figures are frightening. Nigerians have been grappling with several years of infrastructure decay. The transformation agenda was supposed to address this in a holistic way. Bad roads and epileptic power supply are some of the major factors hampering business activities.
Nigeria can only boast about growth if the infrastructure needed by the various sectors to grow and create employed are there. The government ought to resuscitate the textile and agricultural sectors, which are huge employment windows with the capacity to grow wealth.
Renowned economist, Henry Boyo described the GDP rebasing as a development that “is good for the ego”, insisting that the standard of living of an average Nigerian is lower than a South African.
He called for policies that will stimulate critical sectors in terms of financial engineering and credit facilities for the Small Scale and Medium Scale Enterprises.
Insecurity
The deteriorating security situation in the country, especially in the northeast and part of northwest where Boko Haram terrorist group has a strong presence portrayed President Jonathan as inefficient leader. The lackadaisical attitude of the government in tackling terrorism gave an impression that Jonathan was not bothered about the senseless killings of innocent Nigerians in the north by the terrorists. The suspect heightened when over 200 school girls were abducted in Chibok, Borno State. It took Federal Government two weeks to believe that the abduction took place.
It was the government’s apparent lack of adequate concern over the fate of the girls that has reduced the image of the administration in public opinion. A year after they were abducted, Nigerians do not know precisely the where about of the girls. The reported ceasefire agreement brokered by the President of Chad and the prospects of the girls regaining their freedom had provided a glimmer of hope for the government that such break through might reduce the negative impact of the development on Jonathan’s re-election bid, but the agreement remained a paper work. Even at that, it was too late for many Nigerians, who had made up their minds.
Marginalisation of Southwest
President Jonathan made frantic efforts to woo the votes of the people of the Southwest. The PDP’s calculation was that if Jonathan defeats Buhari in the Southwest, he would win the presidential election at first ballot. But the Yoruba alleged Jonathan of total neglect of the region.
A pan-Yoruba movement, the Afenifere Renewal Group (ARG) said it was too late for President Jonathan to woo the Yoruba nation to back his re-election bid. The ARG spokesman, Kunle Famoriyo said for the past five years under his administration , the Yoruba people have been deliberately marginalised and skewed out of national reckoning, especially in terms of key appointments and opportunity to partake in key sectors of the economy.
In Erubami’s view: “No real Yoruba man or woman who supports a pan Yoruba political and development agenda would vote for Jonathan because the Southwest has gained nothing from his administration. There is no tangible thing President Jonathan has done since he took over from the late Prsident Umaru Yar’Adua to warrant his being re-elected.
“Despite the goodwill the people of the Southwest accorded him in 2011, what did we benefit from him? It should be dawn on Jonathan that the self-serving Yoruba leaders that promised him a bulk vote from the region lack electoral value; some of them failed to win in their wards.
Intra-party crisis
The PDP was embroiled in internal crisis in the last two years before the elections. The crisis came into open when some party chieftains and seven governors pulled out and formed a splinter group called new PDP. Their major grouse t was what they described as lack of internal democracy in the party. The crisis festered till mid 2014 when the likes of former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, Former Kwara State Governor, Senator Bukola Saraki, Governors Aliyu Wammako (Sokoto), Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), Rotimi Okorocha (Rivers), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa) and AbdulFattah Ahmad (Kwara) defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC). With that stroke PDP lost five states to the opposition.
The internal squabble also affected the party’s strength at the National Assembly. Not less than 15 senators and several members of the House of Representatives dumped the PDP for APC. The situation became worsen when some members of the National Assembly could not get return tickets. They alleged imposition of candidates and quit the party. The PDP went into election without most of its influential members particularly in the north. It was reflected in the result. The northwest and north-central that used to be the stronghold of the party have been taken over by the APC.
The meddlesomeness of the First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan in the party affairs contributed to the problems of the party. Some leaders in the party, including some governors are not happy with the way she dabbled into the party affairs. She incurred the wrath of party big wigs for imposing candidates for different elective positions, especially in Bayelsa, Rivers, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi and Kwara States.
A PDP chieftain said: “What we don’t understand is why the President has allowed his wife to exhibit overbearing influence in party matters. Before the election, I spoke to many elders in the party and they said they would not vote for President Jonathan because of his wife. Protest votes among PDP members were responsible for Jonathan’s defeat.
Hate campaign
The emergence of Gen. Buhari as APC presidential candidate unsettled the PDP. The party was jittery over the popularity of the former Military Head of State in the north coupled with the acceptability of the APC in the Southwest.
The PDP was attacking the personality of Buhari. While the APC was busy marketing its programme to the electorate, PDP engaged itself on Buhari’s educational qualification and his state of health. Even when Buhari’s alma mater released his School Certificate result, yet they still raise fresh issues.
The PDP sponsored hate documentaries and speeches on Buhari and other APC leaders in other to portray them and the party in bad light. The First Lady, Madam Patience Jonathan went to the extent of describing Buhari as brain dead. She insulted the sensibilities of the north when she said the people of the region are fond of giving birth to Almajirins (disadvantaged children). Unknown to them, the hate campaigns worked in favour of Buhari and the party he represents across the country.
