Correspondent ADEKUNLE JIMOH examines the issues that will shape succession politics in Kwara State ahead of 2027 polls.
With barely two years to the 2027 general election, the scramble for the governorship slots of political parties in Kwara State is already gaining traction.
Expectedly, both old and emerging political gladiators across party lines are testing the waters, engaging in subtle mobilisation, and in some cases, aggressive behind-the-scenes lobbying. What was once whispers in political corridors is now fast becoming an open conversation. So, who takes over from Governor AbdulRaheem AbdulRazaq?
While the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is yet to formally set the ball rolling, intrigues within the party, especially between the fovernor and some of his potential successors, are heating up the polity. On the other side of the divide, the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leaders, led by former Senate President, Bukola Saraki, are also quietly retooling to snatch back power from the ruling APC.
Senator Sadiq Umar:
The People’s annointed Senator Sadiq Umar, the soft-spoken but steady lawmaker representing Kwara North, has served two terms in the Senate with commendable output. His legislative performance and visible community outreach have earned him significant goodwill across his district, enough that if the people of Kwara North were to choose their next governor by themselves, Sadiq would likely be the consensus pick.
But despite his popularity, Sadiq is not the Governor’s anointed. In the evolving power chessboard of Kwara APC, that single fact places him at a disadvantage. So, while Sadiq may be the people’s favourite, he faces an uphill battle to secure the ticket. In Kwara politics, without the blessing of the incumbent, popularity alone is rarely enough.
Salihu Danladi:
He is the anointed protége. The Speaker of House of Assembly, Salihu Danladi, from Kwara North Senatorial District, is widely believed to be AbdulRazaq’s preferred successor.
Loyal to a fault and politically expendable, Danladi has taken bullets on behalf of the governor, especially over controversial amendments to the Freedom of Information law.
While his loyalty and the governor’s backing give him institutional leverage, the perception of being imposed from above could backfire in a state still wary of godfatherism which the Otoge crusades fought in the 2019 political onslaught that rested the Saraki political dynasty. Whether he can step out of the governor’s shadow and win the people’s trust remains a looming question.
Yahaya Seriki:
He symbolises Plan B. Young, wealthy, and politically loyal, Ambassador Yahaya Seriki is widely believed to be AbdulRazaq’s Plan B in case his plans to zone the ticket to the Northern part of the state failed. Seriki, a mining mogul and quiet political investor since 2015, is also rumoured to have the blessings of Seyi Tinubu, the President’s son — a factor many consider both an asset and a liability.
Lateef Fagbemi (SAN)
He may be the Dark Horse. In Kwara South, murmurs are growing louder for Mr. Lateef Fagbemi, the Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice. Though he has not declared any interest, those behind the “Fagbemi-for-Governor” lobby argue that in the spirit of ‘Awalokan’ this may be the best moment for the Yoruba-speaking axis of the state to produce another governor in the state.
However, the senior advocate’s emergence would raise difficult questions around zoning and structure, two important issues in present-day Kwara political landscape. Whether the APC in Kwara is ready for such an elite wildcard remains to be seen.
Saliu Mustapha:
He is In the eye of the storm. Arguably the most popular politician in Kwara today, Senator Saliu Mustapha, the Turaki of Ilorin and Chairman, Senate Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development, commands cult-like grassroots followership. He is also widely accepted outside senatorial district. With a combination of youthful appeal, philanthropy, and strategic visibility, he presents a formidable front for APC’s retention of power.
However, the elephant in the room is the cold war between him and the governor. Their frosty relationship, which insiders say stems from conflicting visions of power succession, could derail his ambition if the party machinery is used against him.
Lanre Issa-Onilu:
He is a seasoned journalist. The Director-General of the National Orientation Agency (NOA), Lanre Issa-Onilu, is a cerebral communicator and respected public servant. Though he boasts of capacity and experience, his weak grassroots connection and alleged strained relationship with the governor make his path to the governorship less likely — unless power brokers outside the state intervene forcefully on his behalf.
Abubakar Suleiman:
The Director-General of the National Institute of Legislative and Democratic Studies, Prof. Suleiman, brings national and academic stature to the table. As a former minister under President Jonathan, and defector from the PDP, his entry into APC has proved bookmarkers wrong about where the pendulum may likely swing in 2027. Abubakar is expected to leverage his relationship with the leadership of the National Assembly to spring a surprise in the political chessboard in the state.
Abubakar also boasts of a wide political support base as he is said to have succeeded in galvanising the former PDP chieftains who detected into the APC to sore up his political structure in the state. APC stalwarts still see him as a “Saraki mole” — a tag that may be hard to shake off in a highly factionalised political landscape like Kwara state where the name Saraki is still loved and loathed in equal proportion.
Attahiru Manko:
He may be the emergency back-up. A recent defector from Social Democratic Party (SDP), Attahiru Manko is being positioned as a backup to the governor’s alleged annointed candidate, Danladi, in case the Nupe bloc from Kwara North insist on producing the governor in 2027. Though little known statewide, his sudden elevation allegedly on AbdulRazaq’s order suggests he may become a compromise candidate if power calculations in the north become too fractious.
The Opposition:
The opposition is gathering its pieces together.
While the ruling APC is grappling with internal rangling, the PDP is steadily regrouping, and unsurprisingly, Dr. Bukola Saraki remains the undisputed leader of the bloc. Despite setbacks in 2019 and 2023, the former Senate President is not retreating, if anything, he is recalibrating for a grand comeback.
Saraki is not leaving any stone unturned. Beyond revitalising its grassroots structure, he is reportedly strategically poaching from the APC, with whispers of high-level realignments gaining traction. One such move is the widely reported plan to woo the influential Mustapha brothers into the PDP fold, a strategy aimed at swelling the party’s ranks with heavyweights ahead of 2027.
For Saraki, it’s not just about winning elections; it is about orchestrating an immense political takeover that resets the balance of power in Kwara. Whether this plan matures or not, one thing is clear: the opposition is no longer in disarray; it is regrouping, with precision
The Road to Ilorin 2027
The race for Kwara Government House is still in its embryonic stage, but one thing is certain: the battle lines are being drawn, alliances are forming, and old tensions are resurfacing.
While APC continues to grapple with internal contradictions and an outgoing governor whose succession plan is viewed with suspicion, the opposition may yet rise if it succeeds in forging unity.
