In the next few months, some state governors in their second term will end their tenure and bid bye to exotic villas where they had called the shots for eight years like the Lord of Manor. But Their Excellencies are not tired. They still want to be relevant, they want to remain in the limelight. In the next dispensation, they are eyeing the Senate. In this piece, our Managing Editor, Northern Operations, YUSUF ALLI, examines the battle ahead for the affected governors.
In the next couple of months, 11 out of the nation’s 36 governors will no longer be eligible to be governors as they would be in office for the mandatory eight years. Those affected are Governors Kashim Shettima( Borno); Ayodele Fayose(Ekiti); Ibrahim Dankwambo(Gombe); Rochas Okorocha(Imo); Abdulfatah Ahmed(Kwara); Umaru Tanko Al-Makura(Nasarawa); Ibikunle Amosun(Ogun); Rauf Aregbesola(Osun) and Abiola Ajimobi(Oyo).
For senators and members of the House of Representatives who became governors, returning to the National Assembly is a familiar turf. But for those outgoing governors seeking to be senators for the first time , it may be a different ball game. Yes, the constituency is smaller, but the battle is tougher as the variables may also be different.
The situation at present
In the 109-member of the 8th Senate , 20 are ex-governors. They are the President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki, Theodore Orji (Abia); Eyinnaya Abaribe (Abia); Godswill Akpabio (Akwa Ibom ); Andy Uba (Anambra); David Mark (Benue); George Akume (Benue); Abiodun Olujimi (Ekiti); Danjuma Goje (Gombe); Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano); Ibrahim Gaya (Kano); Adamu Aliero (Kebbi); Muhammed Lafiagi (Kwara); Abdullahi Adamu (Nasarawa); Jonah Jang (Plateau); Aliyu Wammako (Sokoto); Bukar Abba Ibrahim (Yobe); Danladi Abubakar Sani (Taraba); Sam Egwu (Ebonyi); and Ahmed Sanni Yerima (Zamfara).
A report by a newspaper had indicated that out of the former governors, Senators Andy Uba, Abiodun Olujimi, and Theodore Orji have sponsored an appreciable number of bills.
Saraki stood tall among them having learned the legislative tricks enough to win the much prized seat of the President of the Senate. Many of them are bench warmers because the transition from executive mansions to hallowed chambers is a Herculean task for them.
What are the chances of the 10 governors eyeing the 9th senate?
Investigation by our correspondent indicated that political realities in the affected states have shown that it won’t be a tea-party for most of them. The challenges before the governors , among others, include clamour for power shift, ethnicism, disdain for godfatherism.
Shettima(Borno)
Ordinarily with his modest achievements in office in the midst of insurgency, Governor Kashim Shettima should have an easy ride to the 9th Senate but he faces some hurdles, the latest being where he hails from in Borno. He is either expected to contest for the senatorial seat in Borno Central District (the platform he used to be governor) or Borno North District where bitter politics in the state has led to the discovery of his real origin. Whatever it is, he will slug it out with Sen. Kaka Garbai (from Borno Central who may not relinquish his slot without a viable alternative like the governorship ticket) and Abubakar Kyari representing Borno North. Shettima, widely seen as a “central boy, ” requires much of serious political calculation and negotiation before taking a leap for the Senate. The governor’s major headache is how to rehabilitate Garbai in a commensurate measure.
A source , familiar with the state’s politics, said: “Kashim Shettima was born in Maiduguri, located in Borno Central. His mother is from the central, but his father is a Mallam from Ngazai in Borno North Senatorial District. His associates had mooted the idea that he runs for the seat from the North. But sensing the danger, especially because Kyari, the incumbent, is very popular and formidable, the idea was dropped. To displace Kyari from the Senate would mean to hand him the governorship ticket.
“So at it is, his posters are everywhere for Borno Central Senatorial District. For now, it is certain he will run from the central. The incumbent, Garbai, is his friend. Without Shettima’s prompting, Garbai would not have run in the first place when the seat became vacant shortly before the inauguration of the Senate in 2015. Hon. Umar Kumalia had wanted to run then ; he, however, gave way when it became obvious that the governor preferred Garbai, who incidentally is Kumalia’s friend too.
“For now, apart from Shettima, no one has shown interest in the seat within the APC. And even with the PDP, no visible aspirants for now. But should the Abuja politicians within the APC decide to move against Shettima, getting someone to run against him within the party won’t be too difficult.
“For the north, the only strong person from PDP who can challenge the APC candidate is Sen. Sanusi Daggash (a former Minister of National Planning). But Daggash has been on the quiet side politically in recent times.”
Al- Makura(Nasarawa)
Were it constitutionally possible to have a third term in office, the people of Nasarawa State would have allowed Governor Umar Tanko Al-Makura to continue . But the reality has dawned on everyone; the governor has to leave the Executive Lounge for a shot at the Nasarawa South Senatorial District seat. He will be on the turf against the incumbent Senator from the Peoples Democratic Party, Sen. Suleiman Adokwe( a third term Senator); a PDP member representing Keana/Doma/Awe in the House of Representatives, Ogoshi Onawo; and Husseini Egyegbola of the APC, who was elected as a senator in 2015 before the Election Petitions Tribunal upturned his victory.
Getting APC ticket by Al-Makura is taken for granted. But he has an ethnic barrier at hand and he has to work very hard to sell his candidature . There are five local governments in Nasarawa South Senatorial District namely; Doma, Lafia , Awe, Keana and Obi. The district also harbours about 20 ethnic groups which are contending for power, including Fulani, Tiv, Kanuri, Mighili, Gwandara and Alago among others. Governor Al-Makura comes from Kwandere in Lafia Local Government Area. He is a Gwandara by tribe, which is a minority in Lafia LGA and the Senatorial District. According to findings, three of the local governments areas(Doma, Keana, and Obi ), are controlled by Alago tribe of Sen. Adokwe, Onawo and Egyegbola.
The battle is basically between Alago ( where late Governor Akwe Doma hailed from ) and other ethnic groups in the district. It was only in 1999 that the Alago allowed the late Haruna Abubakar(a Kanuri), who was a Deputy Senate President to late Chuba Okadigbo, to represent the district.
For Al-Makura, history beckons on him to break another electoral jinx again in the state as a minority. His God-fearing, good and fair-minded nature has fetched him a rare political goodwill like the case in 2011 when he became a governor as a minority. If he gets his political strategy right, he might secure the Senatorial ticket. Once Al-Makura can secure the huge votes from Lafia Local Government Area(LGA) and about 5% to 10% in other four LGAs, he will ride to the Senate with less sweat. The huge votes from Lafia, Keffi and Nasarawa Eggon crowned him as a governor seven years ago. And he can defeat his opponent in a landslide if he retains his cosmopolitan look and make his campaign issues-based rather than playing ethnic politics. Surely, all eyes will be on Al-Makura if he secures the APC ticket.
Ahmed(Kwara)
Will the President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki, compensate Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed for his loyalty? As the outgoing governor of Kwara State, Ahmed’s ultimate desire is to be a senator for Kwara South Senatorial District. He is seeking the ticket currently held by Senator Abdulrafiu Ibrahim, who has been a long standing loyalist of Saraki. It is a hard knot for Saraki to untie but if performance is anything to go by, Sen. Ibrahim has a little edge over Ahmed, who has spent eight years to create political liability for Saraki due to his low performance in office. Saraki is battling to clean the Augean Stable at a higher cost to his political career. But going by the PDP’s Right of First Refusal for defectors, the ticket will automatically go to Ahmed leaving Ibrahim in a quandary.
Whoever is anointed by Saraki will face a tough contest with a renowned architect, Lola Ashiru, whose ingenuity led to the design of Skye Bank structures all over the country and other architectural works. Ashiru, who is from Offa , which has not produced a senator since 1999, has the war-chest to give Ibrahim or Ahmed a good fight. The last time Offa produced a senator was during the aborted Third Republic.
Another silent contestant is the US-based Nurudeen Adeyemi Balogun from Esie in Irepodun Local Government Area, who is determined to prove a point that a first timer can make a difference. Apart from palace rivalry in Saraki’s courtyard, Governor Ahmed has the people of Kwara South to contend with. They are enlightened, conscientious and detest money politics. The governor has to sell himself for any electoral breakthrough. The Kwara south PDP senatorial primaries will be an interesting race
Ajimobi(Oyo)
It is a straight fight between Governor Abiola Ajimobi and other aspirants for Oyo South Senatorial District ticket. Despite the recent electoral upset for APC in Ibarapa East Constituency in Oyo House of Assembly, which it lost to the Peoples Democratic Party, Ajimobi may regain his seat without sweat. Up till now, he has not known his opponent in either the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) or any of the emerging coalitions in the state. But he has an opponent in APC, Sen. Soji Akanbi, who might not get the party’s ticket because Ajimobi has a firm grip on the structure of the party. Where Akanbi is not “well accommodated”, he might seek refuge in another party. So far, Akanbi is keeping his game plan close to his chest. A former chairman of Oluyole Local Government Area, Mr. Kehinde Olaosebikan, said: “The governor will defeat any party’s candidate for Oyo South Senatorial District. He has performed well to earn a return ticket to the Senate.” The district comprises Ibadan North, Ibadan North West, Ibadan South East, Ibadan South West, Ibadan North East, Ibarapa North, Ibarapa Central, Ibarapa East, and Ido.
Fayose(Ekiti)
Still struggling to survive the pains of the defeat of his political godson at the recent governorship poll, Governor Ayodele Fayose faces an uncertain political future. He has spoken less of either his presidential ambition or the alternative of going to the Senate. His obvious choice is to vie for Ekiti Central District Senatorial ticket with Sen. Fatima Raji Rasaki. But it will be a disaster and the end of the road for Fayose if he loses again. While he is considering the next step in his turbulent political career, his associate, Obafemi Adewale(a former chairman of NBA in Ekiti State), is aspiring for Ekiti Central District ticket. Whether or not the aspiration of Adewale is in trust for Fayose, time will soon tell.
Rochas Okorocha(Imo)
Owelle Rochas Okorocha, no doubt, is facing a massive gang-up in the state by forces within APC and those in PDP over alleged plans to foist his son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, as the governorship candidate of APC in the state. He wants to make it a double-edge sword by aspiring for the senatorial ticket of Imo West Senatorial District. He wants to take over the seat of Sen. Hope Uzodinma, who is interested in the governorship race. In February, Okorocha said: “I have decided to run for the Imo West Senatorial zone because if I don’t, bad people will take the position. If my name appears on the ballot paper as contesting for the Senate, it will boost APC’s chances in the state. And many from my zone have said they will not contest if I am interested.” But he has a match in a business mogul and chieftain of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Imo State, Chief Charles Ahize and others who seek the same office.
Noted for a refrain, “My people, my people,” it will soon be judgment day for Okorocha when the Imo citizens will decide whether Okorocha can eat his cake and have it. If Okorocha has his way, he would be highlighted in the Guinness Book of Records but if otherwise, history will be unkind to him forever.
Yari(Zamfara)
The battle in Zamfara West Senatorial District will depend on the outcome of any accord or unwritten agreement between Governor Abdulaziz Yari and his godfather, Ahmed Sani Yerima, who was an ex-governor of the state. Yerima, who has been in the Senate since 2007, is in dire straits because he wants to produce Yari’s successor and at the same time retain his senatorial slot. But the governor, who was once a member of the House of Representatives, is interested in going to the Senate. He is from the same zone with Yerima. It was learnt that Yerima would not mind sacrificing his senatorial ambition to be allowed to pick the next governorship candidate of APC (Yari’s successor) in Zamfara State. Yerima is said to be interested in the current Deputy Governor of Zamfara State, Alhaji Ibrahim Wakkala Muhammad, who was his former Commissioner for Religious Affairs. The deputy governor comes from Zamfara Central, which has never produced the executive of the state since the return of democracy in 1999. On the other hand, it was learnt that Yari favours his most powerful Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs, Alhaji Muttaka Rini, who is from Zamfara West. Unless tact and diplomacy prevail, Yari and Yerima may lock horns in the end. But a source said: “Whatever it is, Yerima still holds the ace in Zamfara politics. Yari needs to engage in a lot of reconciliation to win back the hearts of the people of the state.” It will be interesting to know in the next few weeks what manner of accord the two gladiators will reach.
Gaidam (Yobe)
This is a slippery terrain. Governor Ibrahim Gaidam and his godfather, Sen. Bukar Abba Ibrahim have to test the waters over Yobe East Senatorial District ticket. Although one Dr. Almajiri Gaidam is also interested in the senatorial race, the contest is really between the governor and his mentor. For Governor Gaidam, the next venture is the Senate but he is from the same district with Ibrahim who has been in the Senate since 2007. There are seven local governments in the district, including Gujba, Gulani, Damaturu, Tarmuwa, Yunusari, Geidam and Bursari. While Sen. Bukar Abba hails from Gujba, Governor Ibrahim Gaidam is from Yunusari, although he was brought up in Gaidam.
The power game has been a quiet political war in Yobe State since 1999; the struggle for Yobe North East by the two titans might redefine politics in the state if not maturely handled. Old prejudices/ sentiments are being whipped up. For Gaidam, he had wanted to be a senator in 2003 after the demise of Senator Adamu Usman of the defunct ANPP but he was denied the ticket by Sen. Bukar Abba Ibrahim, who was then the governor of the state. Sen. Abba was said to have rated Gaidam as unfit to be a councillor. This time around the governor, who has hijacked the structure of the party, does not want to suffer fools gladly.
His godfather will also not let go his seat. Recently, Sen. Bukar Abba Ibrahim said: “In sha Allah, I will be seeking re-election back to the Senate in the forthcoming election and I do not see anybody as a threat.
“ I have no problems with my constituency and the electorate. I have not been recalled by those who voted me to represent them and I am physically and mentality fit. All I know is that by 2019, I will be re-elected back to the Senate.
“The governor has not told me that he is interested in the seat after the expiration of his tenure next year and I don’t need to bother myself about it since I know that there would be no vacancy because I am re-contesting for the position next year and I will continue to offer myself to my people for the position as long as I have the energy and sound health to represent them.
“I will stay in the Senate until death do us part. Everybody tells me that I’m senator for life. I’m going to be in the Senate for life…”
On his part while planning subtly, Gaidam said: “My becoming governor is not by my power or the making of any other human being. It’s destiny because somebody said I would not even be a councillor in Yobe. Today, God has made me the governor, who knows where I will be tomorrow?”
Amosun(Ogun)
The man to beat for Ogun Central District seat is Governor Ibikunle Amosun, whose performance might give him an edge. With the party’s structure in his kitty, Amosun, who was a one-time senator, already has the senatorial ticket in his pocket. But he will have to slug it out with his godson, Sen. Lanre Tejuoso(who may defect to ADC), Sen. Gbenga Obadara, a former member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Kayode Amusan(PDP) and a former commissioner in the state, Apostle Biodun Sanyaolu (PDP). Obadara has, however, added a caveat to his aspiration when he said he night step down if Amosun is interested in the race.
Although the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Taiwo Adeoluwa, is being speculated to be interested in the senatorial seat, it was unclear if he is serious or merely flying a kite.
Dankwambo(Gombe)
The purchase of governorship nomination form by ex-Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Sen. Bayero Nafada on Friday has confirmed a swap deal between Governor Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo for Gombe North Senatorial District, if the governor does not get the presidential ticket of PDP. Nafada, who represents Gombe North District, has left the Senate for good. It is a different ball game if Dankwambo will keep to the secret pact with Nafada by ensuring that the former Deputy Speaker emerges his successor.
For Dankwambo, who has been accused of using his presidential aspiration as a smokescreen, the battle for Gombe North District might be between him and Sen. Saidu Ahmed Alkali, who was elected as a PDP Senator in August 2010 after the death of Sen. Kawu Peto Dukku. He was also re-elected in the April 2011general poll. Alkali was a former Commissioner for Information under ex-Governor Danjuma Goje.