- By Sola Ajisafe
There is no doubt that the political atmosphere in Nigeria is currently high-stakes, despite that the 2027 election still being about two years away. Make no mistake; it will be high drama, yet a lot may not really change in the country’s political spectrum at the end of the day.
To give further evidence of the rumblings, two events will ultimately affect the political calculation of 2027. One is the death of former president, Muhammadu Buhari, and the second, the resignation of Atiku Abubakar from the PDP. These two issues will have political impacts as we move forward.
No one needs to be told that the PDP has suffered internal haemorrhage for a very long time, causing it to gasp for breath. The possibility of its survival was dependent on how much the care-givers or those charged with taking care of it could continue to maintain it on an oxygen-induced life support. Unfortunately, the consultants charged with providing the necessary medical support had become uncommitted, self-serving, and compromised.
The coalition is not any better. It is composed of angry, hungry, battered, and frustrated politicians looking for succour anywhere they can find it. These individuals, who have now found their way into the ADC, pride themselves on coming to rescue Nigeria. It is led by Atiku Abubakar, former vice president – a serial contender for the presidency since 1993.
There is Peter Obi, another serial contender and serial defector like Atiku. Nasir El-Rufai is a man who has occupied one political office or the other since 1999. His loyalty is based on the position he is offered in any political party or association. Under Obasanjo, he was Director General of the Bureau of Public Enterprises, minister, and later a two-term governor of Kaduna State.
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Also in the leadership of the coalition is Rotimi Amaechi, whose only known contribution to the Nigerian project is being in political office. He was Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly for eight years, governor for eight years and minister for Transport under President Buhari for almost eight years. He was at various times chairman of the Speakers Forum of Nigeria and Nigerian Governors Forum.
There are other lesser coalitionists masquerading as rescuers whose lives in public space speak of unenviable achievements that do not qualify them for the least office in the land.
When we put together these people, starting with Atiku Abubakar, from his presence in the Nigerian Customs Service to his political life as vice president, none of the tasks given to him to handle show him as a man with the capacity that can rescue the Nigerian nation.
If Peter Obi, El-Rufai, and Amaechi with a combined tenure of 24 years and none of their states –Anambra, Rivers, and Kaduna – could be considered to have given their inhabitants the best in anything, how can we trust them with our future? To return to them under these circumstances is going back to Egypt.
This leads to the incongruity of their quest to return to political prominence supposedly to rescue Nigeria. The inconsistency and mismatch in their political trajectory or their contradictory ideological posturing and mental capacity make their quest unachievable and unrealisable.
Let me use Atiku Abubakar as an example. He was the one who head-hunted El-Rufai as the DG of BPE, which was placed under Atiku by President Olusegun Obasanjo. At the end of the day, it ended up as a mess. This was pointedly revealed by El-Rufai in his book “Accidental Public Servant.” In the book, he showed how impossible it was to work with Atiku.
El-Rufai himself was served the same breakfast by President Obasanjo in his book “My Watch,” where he described El-Rufai as a disloyal and lying machine. It is a fact that the connecting rod between these elements is not their love for Nigeria or the capacity to do better than the current occupants of political office. They are fired by loss of power, status, and a sustained hatred for President Tinubu.
I venture to state without mincing words that it would be impossible for this group of people to take the presidency from Asiwaju Tinubu under whatever coalition or banner. The reasons are numerous. One, many of them are driven by personal ambition and the desire to become president at all costs, rather than the ability, capability, and discipline of a potential president of Nigeria.
For instance, Atiku’s continued search for the presidency has become not only an obsession but a cross that he has to carry for the rest of his life. Unfortunately, much as he has the ambition to wear the lapel of Mr President, he lacks the discipline and strategy to achieve the objective. His inability to have a strong political structure that could make him win an election is legendary. He runs a fragmented, confused, and extremely pliant political structure that is incapable of tying down a presidential ticket in any party.
He has become a nomadic politician over the years, seeking the best way to get into Aso Rock without setting the right building blocks. For the rest of the coalitionists, they are driven by their overrated assumption of their political value rather than what they actually measure on the political scale.
For instance, the only effect Amaechi could lay claim to outside his Rivers State is his leadership of the Nigerian Speakers Forum and the Governors Forum. These are his main planks for leadership at the national level. His being a minister added nothing to his national appeal in terms of building bridges.
El-Rufai has always shown that he is not a friendly and reliable political asset. Not with flawed religious extremism and ethnic exceptionalism.
On the part of Peter Obi, his quest for the presidency is not based on capacity and national political relevance or past achievement. Rather, it is based more on ethnic and religious sentiments or a sense of entitlement based on ethnic competition.
In a larger sense, one can see that most of those involved in the opposition or coalition have different reasons for ganging up against the Tinubu government. Many are angry because they could not find a place in the government, some habitual political nomads are looking for a place to excite themselves or exercise their political rights.
The opposition’s message is not deep enough and is not resonating with the people. As it stands, the coalition will remain a political dead wood.
As far as I can see, 2027 will be filled with the usual hullabaloo and razzle-dazzle of political activities, but in the end, the ultimate outcome would be a total decimation of the opposition at the polls and a continuation of the Asiwaju presidency. The reason is very simple: aside from the brighter optics in the political horizon, the “centre cannot hold” for the Nigerian opposition parties to make any difference in the 2027 presidential election.
•Ajisafe, a lawyer, journalist and farmer, writes from Akure, Ondo State









