In 2003 when he broke ranks with his fellow Southwest governors and declined to form an ethnically motivated political and electoral alliance with former president Olusegun Obasanjo, few people knew what really motivated Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who was at the time Lagos State governor. When the alliance blew up in the faces of the Alliance for Democracy (AD) governors who blundered into it, it was suggested that Asiwaju Tinubu was prescient. It was obvious he could not trust Chief Obasanjo whom he considered adept at ambushing friends and enemies alike and skillful in seeking advantage over them, often unscrupulously. But there was a second, perhaps more potent, reason for balking at the deal with the former president. Asiwaju Tinubu was naturally uninterested in any alliance not anchored on ideas. Allying with Chief Obasanjo simply because he was Yoruba, especially one who neither approximated nor projected Yoruba worldview and values, was to him ignoble.
In retrospect, Asiwaju Tinubu served notice early in the day what kind of politics he wished to play, and what kind of person he liked to be thought of. His ideas might not possess Aristotelian streaks, but he was passionate about them, and he took inordinate risk imbuing them with life. He was not afraid to walk alone, nor be pilloried fairly or maliciously, and he seemed to take pleasure in risking everything he had for the sake of causes, and if it came to that, persons, he believed in. But he took care to outlive the enemy rather than hug reckless martyrdom. He of course recognised he was not always right, but he seemed at peace with himself even when he was wrong. Sometimes brusque, sometimes combative, a little obtruding and consciously ruthless, he was in equal measure humane, farsighted, sacrificial and thoughtful. He in fact seemed to have built his political career on a curious amalgam of virtues and vices that made him one of the most loathed and loved, but more accurately paradoxically indefinable, person in politics today.
Twelve years after he defined his place as a huge risk taker in politics, and after more than a decade of plotting and scheming, envisioning and practicalising, Asiwaju Tinubu has worked himself into a central position as an ideologue, kingmaker and democrat to whom, more than anyone, the country owes both the deepening of its democracy and the dramatic electoral overthrow of the Goodluck Jonathan government. He could have shortsightedly entered into the unwholesome and opportunistic electoral arrangement with Chief Obasanjo in 2003, and settled any discussion as to what kind of man he was. And in 2007, he could also have accepted the government of national unity offered by his close friend and former Katsina State governor, the late Umaru Yar’Adua. But on both occasions, his instinctive understanding of the value of opposition politics, his unstated belief in the superiority of his ideas, and his charismatic independence, even aloofness bordering on isolation, compelled him into a different political trajectory.
That trajectory has taken him through a roller coaster of emotions, plucked him from the politics of one state — Lagos — and hopped, stepped and jumped him via regional politics of the Southwest, and landed him smack in the coveted middle of national politics, as tactician, strategist and kingmaker. Now, even his enemies, of whom there are hundreds, will respect him though they continue to loath him. Asiwaju Tinubu’s success and prominence in politics must, however, be properly contextualised. In the 2015 polls, he was simply well positioned. Dr Jonathan had worked up the electorate into a fever over his poor handling of national affairs, including unemployment, Chibok schoolgirls abductions, declining economy, corruption and many debilitating and vexatious policies. A change had become desirable by as early as 2013. Gen Buhari, the APC candidate had also recognised the limitations of his politics of exclusion and non-compromise, and had risen astronomically in the stock of the electorate to achieve cult following. And the world itself, especially the great powers and superpowers, had become quite fed up with the mediocrity in Nigeria. The conditions were ripe for change, and it required someone of uncommon perception, vision and courage to midwife it.
Nigeria was fortunate that the ripe conditions were met by one man (or what a great wit poignantly and cryptically describes as ‘cometh the hour, cometh the man’), Asiwaju Tinubu, who showed fierce determination and character in 2003, reinforced that character and self-belief in 2007, expanded his horizon from thence onward, and in 2011 began to envision the kind of alliances and friendship across ethnic groups, regions and religions that were necessary to change the old order. While still confined to his Lagos State as a lone survivor of the Obasanjo Tsunami, and whereas the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) controlled more states than his Action Congress (AC), he began to act and speak as the national opposition, unafraid he could be crushed by a dominant Abuja and a domineering and unsparing President Obasnjo.
Not only did he succour former Plateau State governor, Joshua Chbbi Dariye, who was unlawfully impeached and hunted by both President Obasanjo and a colluding PDP in 2006, he also lent a helping hand to former Oyo State governor, Rashidi Ladoja, who had also come under President Obasanjo’s impeachment axe in the same year. To underscore the fact that his political convictions were not a fluke, he was to later extend the same assistance to the impeached Governor of Adamawa State, Murtala Nyako. An incurable believer in presidentialism and its undergirding principle of federalism, Asiwaju Tinubu gladly reached out as a champion of the constitutional doctrine of the separation of powers to anyone oppressed. It was no surprise that he took active interest in the electoral processes of Southwest states, including the South-South state of Edo; nor was it also surprising that many ambitious politicians saw him as a reliable friend and bulwark in the fight for electoral probity. He fought to reclaim Ekiti, Osun, Ondo and Edo States; and by the next round of polls in 2011, he offered more than an arm and a leg to claim Ogun and Oyo States.
Between 1999 and 2011, it was clear to every observer that the presidency meddled in the affairs of the National Assembly, thereby robbing Nigeria of one of the main legs for the sustenance of democracy. In particular, Chief Obasanjo meddled actively in the legislature, enthroning and dethroning at will. Even out of power, in 2011, he still attempted to enthrone Hon Mulikat Adeola-Akande as the Speaker. By that time, however, Asiwaju Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) had come of age. Brushing aside the sentiment of zoning and ethnicity, and recognising that his party held the ace in the Southwest, and also aware that he needed to stamp his authority on the democratic process, he forged an alliance with other independent forces within and outside the House of Representatives to elect a Speaker of their choice, Aminu Tambuwal.
It took enormous courage to embrace a prescient choice that at face value seemed to disadvantage the Southwest to which the PDP had zoned the position. But needs must when the devil drives, and Asiwaju Tinubu shut his eyes, steadied his nerves and bit the bullet. The recriminations that followed were fearsome and unrelenting for more than four years. He was blamed for every problem in the region, and in particular for Dr Jonathan’s deliberate and orchestrated marginalisation of the Yoruba. The grey hairs and hot blood of the Afenifere and Oodua Peoples Congress (OPC) respectively assailed him, and propped up the Teflon Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State as the new rallying point for the Yoruba. They are now all silent, their last hoary gasp made when Oba Rilwan Akiolu of Lagos took the Igbo in Lagos to task.
It is not clear at what point Asiwaju Tinubu began to entertain the thought of winning the centre, especially because he had unsuccessfully tried to forge a winning alliance both in 2007 and 2011 for that purpose. But after seeing the political spinoff from his fortuitous backing of Hon Tambuwal for the position of Speaker, and considering the doors it opened to the North, and the fact that many permutations suddenly became appealingly possible, a fresh and more vigorous attempt to form an alliance looked realistic. The Yoruba organisation, Afenifere, bitterly opposed the ACN, denounced Asiwaju Tinubu, and blamed him for all the region’s woes. Undeterred, however, a new broad-based alliance, which took advantage of the estrangement of some five or seven PDP governors, was formed a year after in 2012. But notwithstanding the flourish and excitement with which the new party called APC presented its roadmap and manifesto, few knew that barely two years later, they could sweep so dramatically and grandly into power.
If Asiwaju Tinubu dreamt of winning the presidency for the APC, he did not speak it confidently. There were the structure and organisation of the gangling and unsteady party to contend with, as many old party hands resisted new ones. There were also contentious primaries to overcome, not to talk of the more volatile election of a presidential candidate. Indeed, every prognostication was unfavourable, with many analysts, including former Aviation minister Ebenezer Babatope, swearing that sooner or later the new party would implode. Surprisingly, perhaps also to the party’s leaders, the party held together. It also became clear that the driving force was Asiwaju Tinubu, who worked tirelessly and imaginatively to keep the new alliance going. Even if he could not get the ultimate prize of the presidency for the APC, he thought, the party could at least rise to become a strong and powerful opposition with expanded reach. A number of Southwest groups, including Afenifere, accused him of helping the North to enslave the Yoruba, but he forged on nonetheless.
Any astute politician who studied the statistics of the 2011 polls would know it is sentimental nonsense to speak of enslavement. Dr Jonathan himself had to forge an alliance between at least four geopolitical zones to win in 2011. No northern or south-western politician could win the presidency without a strong alliance. A smart politician would appreciate that Dr Jonathan’s policies had alienated the North. It was, therefore, ready for an alliance. The Southwest, notwithstanding the outlandish conclusions of the Afenifere, was also frustrated and alienated, and was ready for a deal. If no other zone embraced the change mantra, four zones already implicitly did. Having secured the friendship of the North, instead of hating and preaching to them like the Afenifere did, Asiwaju Tinubu managed to finally cobble together a winning alliance and formula which even the controversy over the presidential running mate could not scupper.
Two final factors seal the reputation of Asiwaju Tinubu. Not only was he ready to work with difficult politicians like Chief Obasanjo, whose crippling conservatism and meddlesomeness many Nigerians resented, since 1999 he had imbibed the Obafemi Awolowo and Ahmadu Bello culture of leadership recruitment, building young men and women whom he unleashed on the country as future leaders, while also reconciling with his powerful detractors to the point of even describing Chief Obasanjo incredulously as the navigator. Those future leaders sometimes disagreed with him, and even took advantage of his liberal spirit and forbearance, but he seemed to have an uncanny appreciation of their limitations and thus readily accommodated or overlooked their foibles.
He may not be president-elect or vice president-elect, but the role he played in deepening democracy, sustaining and nurturing the culture of opposition, and strategising the defeat of the PDP, have all raised his profile sky-high. Like the APC, his main challenge will be how to manage both his success and new profile. Two years after its formation, the APC won the presidency even before it had time to solidify its structure and reinforce its raison d’etre. It is, after all, clear that the party has many tendencies, and its core values may seem even tenuous and fragile, especially seeing how a mixed multitude had flocked into its membership in the past months. Asiwaju Tinubu himself, the man with the onomatopoeic Borgu (kwara State) traditional title of Jagaban, is not the most patient of men when it comes to running with a vision; but while he is doubtless a progressive, he appears more pragmatic than philosophical, more practical than an ideologue.
The APC is a young party, undoubtedly precocious. But it is also brash and to some extent inexperienced. It needs time to establish itself and concretise its philosophy and traditions. Asiwaju Tinubu is tarred with the same brush. Though he sometimes sounds eclectic, his ideas are nonetheless still in formation. But much more challenging to him is that not being president or vice president, and being consumed by a gripping vision for the seemingly impossible, he must now watch how his party and other elected officials would run with the vision. He will assume that everyone has cottoned on to the vision; but more, he will squirm and writhe in anxiety from a point (which point?) in the scheme of things that posterity will place him. For someone so enormously endowed, but one also abounding in his own idiosyncratic shortcomings, his greatest battles may be ahead of him: not battles of strategising and winning elections; but battles of sustaining the lofty height he has climbed as a person and politician, and turning the APC into a more cohesive, disciplined and philosophical organisation, one capable of both midwifing the change the country yearned for when it voted Gen Buhari and developing Nigeria into a developmental tiger far surpassing those of Asia.
