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Amaechi, Wamakko, Nyako, Saraki, Oyinlola join APC

History was made yesterday in Abuja, with the New Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) merging with the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Besides, five of the aggrieved seven PDP governors, popularly called G-7, joined the APC.

Governors Aliyu Babangida (Niger) and Sule Lamido (Jigawa) are to follow later.

Aliyu, who showed up briefly at the conclusion of the merger talks in the Kano Governor’s Lodge in Asokoro District, Abuja will determine his political future in January, next year.

Lamido decided to go through the peace talks with the President, based on the advice of his political godfather, ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, who he fondly calls “The Oracle”.

The outcome of the peace talks would guide Lamido’s choice- either to pitch his tent with the APC or not.

It was also learnt that Lamido is tarrying a while because of alleged overtures from the Presidency on tAhe fate of his sons, who were recently arrested for money laundering.

The Presidency was said to be offering a soft-landing for the governor’s children, if he renounces his alliance with the New PDP.

Radiating a sense of fulfillment, APC leaders posed for historic shots at the doorstep of the lodge, amid backslapping.

They were all smiles as photographers kept on pestering them for shots to mark a milestone in the political evolution of Nigeria.

An excited National Chairman of the New PDP, Alhaji Abubakar Kawu Baraje, who swiveled his brown Babanriga with ecstasy, said the merger was real.

He read a terse statement, after about three hours talks between the faction and APC leaders, with the relish of a newscaster.

The statement was signed by the National Chairman of APC, Chief Bisi Akande and Baraje.

The statement said: “A meeting of the leadership of APC and the New PDP met this morning at the residence of the Kano State Governor, Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, in Abuja.

“After exhaustive deliberations, the two parties agreed to merge in order to rescue our fledgling democracy.”

The merger of New PDP with APC was preceded by final round of talks between the G-7 governors and top leaders of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Abuja.

The meeting, which began at 9.30am at Kano Governor’s Lodge and ended at about 12.30pm.

Those at the meeting were a former Head of State, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, the National Chairman of APC, Chief Bisi Akande, the National Leader of APC, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Governors – Rotimi Amaechi, Murtala Nyako, Abdulfatah Ahmed and Rabiu Kwankwaso. A former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Bello Masari, ex-Governor Ogbonnaya Onu(the immediate National chairman of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party), ex-Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, ex-Governor Bukola Saraki, ex-Governor Abdullahi Adamu, ex-Governor Timpreye Sylvia, Alhaji Lai Mohammed and ex-Senator Suleiman Nazif were also there.

Others are: Imam Kashim, former Deputy National Chairman of New PDP, Sam Sam Jaja and the Youth Leader of the New PDP, Timi Frank.

Governor Aliyu Wammako, who was away in Senegal, was said to be monitoring the talks.

Speaking briefly with reporters, Baraje said the New PDP had merged with the APC.

He said: “We are merging; we are merging.”

Asked if the merger meant dropping the name, new PDP, he said: “All these are implications of merging. What they are telling you is that we have merged and we have agreed to merge.

“Please take note that… you have observed that …some of our members took permission to go out of the meeting; they did not walk out. You have seen the Governor of Kwara State, you have seen the Governor of Niger. They all took permission to travel.

“In fact, some of us here are travelling too. We only waited a little bit for this communiqué to be read because of you.”

Although Baraje did not give the details of why the leaders terminated talks with Jonathan, The Nation learnt that the merger came two months earlier than proposed by the coalescing groups because of the President alleged foot-dragging on the peace talks within the crisis-ridden PDP.

The G-7 governors and the New PDP had opted to wait till the conclusion of talks with Jonathan on or before January before merging with APC or not.

It was learnt that the bungling of the peace talks last Sunday by the President made the merger a fait accompli.

Most of the governors and New PDP leaders were aggrieved that the President was only bidding time.

The New PDP and the G-7, according to sources, also acted to beat alleged plot by the Bamanga Tukur-led National Working Committee(NWC) to expel their leaders.

A governor, who spoke in confidence, said: “For sometime now, we have been weighing options. We felt we should wait till January 2014 to move to APC, if the talks with the President did not yield any fruits.

“As a matter of fact, in the last 48 hours, we were still at the crossroads on whether to give Jonathan more time or not.

“We have, however, discovered that the President was just bidding time to consolidate and deal with the G-7 governors. At a point when we gave the President a breathing space during the peace talks, he decided to remove ministers allegedly loyal to the G-7 governors.

“In another instance when we thought were making progress with the peace talks, Oyinlola and others were suspended.

“And when we expected resumption of peace talks after this year’s Hajj, Jonathan kept on shifting the goalpost. Although he said he would meet with us on Sunday, we knew there were plans to expel some of our leaders on or before Friday.”

After reviewing past meetings, the group concluded that the President was never seriously committed to the peace talks. “Each time we met him, he would just be laughing. His position is that he should bark orders at us and we should comply, said the source, who added:

“Technically, they do not want us in PDP again but they were being tactical in trying to edge us out.”

Another source said: “We are actually expecting three or more PDP governors to join the APC early next year.

“This is just the beginning of the coming political hurricane in the country. Nigerians should wait for further developments.”

Replying to a question, the source added: “All the G-7 members did not join the APC today because of one reason or the other. They gave us cogent reasons, which are acceptable to us.

“We are expecting them in 2014. For example, Governors Babangida Aliyu and Sule Lamido offered to explore the peace initiative to the fullest. Aliyu, who may make up his mind in January, is also reading the lips of political makers in Niger State.

“For Lamido, the Presidency knows he is a political asset and it has been mounting pressure on him with a promise to address the money laundering case against his children. They know he is passionate about hanging corruption allegations against his children. They are using likely reprieve for the children as a bait to woo Lamido.

“Also, Lamido as a party man, defers to ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo a lot. He might still want to consult the ex-President before taking the next step.”

November 27, 2013
2015: Merger redefines political landscape

The merger of a PDP faction with the opposition yesterday is the biggest political cross-over since 1999. The merger seemed to have shifted political calculations in the country going into 2015 elections. Bolade Omonijo analysed the new political configuration

This appears to be the season of the unprecedented. Before the merger of three major political parties – the Congress for Political Change (CPC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) was formalized in July following the registration of the All Progressives Congress (APC) by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC); there had been speculation that the move would be aborted before the consummation.

However, four months after, the merger seems to have come to stay. The leading lights of the political movement have traversed the entire country selling their position on the Nigeria Project and insisting that the time had come for a change.

Soon after, the crisis within the ruling PDP became unmanageable and the party was split down the middle. In the House of Representatives, the Senate, the party secretariat and the states, the PDP became a party divided against itself. Would it fall in 2015?

Yesterday’s defection from the party by a faction that had gone by the appellation new PDP for months is the strongest indication that things would not be the same again. Those who left the PDP include the chairman of the faction, Alhaji Kawu Baraje who was a former Acting National Chairman of the party, a former national secretary, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola who was also the immediate past governor of Osun State, former governors Bukola Saraki of Kwara State, Danjuma Goje of Gombe and Abdullahi Adamu of Nasarawa State.

Others, Governors Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa, Abdulafattah Ahmed of Kwara and Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers have taken the plunge and it remains to be seen the weight to be attached to their crossing.

2011 and 2015: a comparative analysis

The figures from 2011 suggest that APC may be poised to give PDP a strong fight at the 2015 general elections. In 2011, the elections in Kano showed that the leaders now in APC dictated the pace. In the presidential election, the party’s candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, polled 1.62 million votes, followed at a distance by ANPP’s Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau who was the governor of the state. In the third place was President Goodluck Jonathan, the PDP’s candidate with 440,686 votes, leaving ACN’s Mallam Nuhu Ribadu in the fourth position with a paltry 42,363 votes. Now, all the four leading parties in the state are in the state structure. Thus, it has become academic to ask which the dominant party in the state is. While the dynamics swung in favour of the PDP in the hotly contested governorship poll, the leading parties merely shuffled their positions.

The celebrated performance of Kwankwaso since he resumed the office he was made to vacate in 2003 has strengthened his position in the state, and Buhari remains a cult figure, especially among the masses and the youth in the entire far North.

If things do not change and the APC is united going into 2015 elections, no other party stands a chance.

Kwara has always presented a fascinating scenario to political analysts. For decades, the late Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki ruled the waves. He literally dictated the pace of things and direction of voting. It took his disaffection with the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) in 1983 to pave the way for the Unity Party of Nigeria. He literally singlehandedly installed Alhaji Shaaba Lafiagi as governor in the Third Republic and Rear Admiral Mohammed Alabi Lawal at inception of the Fourth Republic in 1999.

In 2003, he brought in his son, Bukola Saraki who repeated the feat in 2007. However, a parting of way between father and son in 2011 saw the emergence of the current governor who had received the blessing and support of the former governor, now in the Senate. So, just before the transition of the former strongman, another had emerged. The former governor has f a full hold on the PDP structure in Kwara State. He is in the Senate alongside Lafiagi who is a strong member of his political tendency. If there is understanding among the political roller coasters from the legacy parties that have coalesced into the APC in Kwara, victory is certain in all elections in 2015.

In the 2011 presidential election, the Bukola Saraki-led PDP was credited with 288, 243 or 64 per cent of the total votes cast while the CPC polled 83,603 and the ACN 62,432. As in Kano, all three tendencies are now in the APC. It is a formidable platform.

In Sokoto, the dominant parties in all the elections in 2011 were the CPC and PDP. Governor Wamakko’s disenchantment with the party had begun to show at the PDP presidential primaries in Abuja where delegates from Sokoto clearly voted against President Jonathan. At the presidential election, CPC polled 540,769 votes to PDP’s 309,067. While the reverse was the case in the governorship election that returned Wamakko to office, all the elections showed that the PDP and CPC decided what happened in the state. They also proved the electoral worth of the governor. When it is noted that former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa is also involved in the formation of the APC, it is obvious that the next elections are for the APC to lose in the state.

The situation in Rivers State is not as straightforward. While the PDP swept the polls the last time, the defection of Governor Amaechi is an acid test of his popularity. How much of the victory in 2011 could be attributed to Amaechi’s personal charm and what proportion could be credited to the party structure? At the moment, the governor retains hold of the governance structure as well as the dominant faction of the party. However, the sentiment that a son of the region is President and the hostility of other PDP governors in the South South would test the resilience of the governor who was Speaker of the House of Representatives for eight year. The fact that he retains the control of the legislature and representatives in the National Assembly is an indication that he is a strong factor in his own right.

Hitherto, Rivers has been a one-party state and is renowned for an uncanny ability to turn up crucial votes for the winning party. Would the trend continue in 2015? A call cannot be easily made at the moment until the caliber of candidates and other factors unfold.

The trend in Adamawa where Governor Murtala Nyako was one of the first to indicate that it was all over with the PDP is not much different from the Rivers State scenario. Nyako has enemies within and without. The move to register the Peoples Democratic Movement spearheaded by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has been attributed to the uneasy relationship he has at home with Nyako. It is to be noted, too, that the party’s national chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur hails from the state. The situation remains foggy. How it turns out remains to be seen.

In Nasarawa State where CPC’s Governor Tanko Al-Makura holds sway, he narrowly won the 2011 governorship poll. He has since been making efforts to consolidate his hold on power. He has a formidable foe in the PDP that has former Governor Abdullahi Adamu as captain. Now that Adamu is in the same boat with the governor, Al-Makura could breathe easy. However, it remains to be seen whether interests and ego would not affect their relationship in the run up to 2015. United, the state would remain in the APC fold.

If the scenario prevailing today remains till 2015, the general election would be the first to provide real contest. In the entire Far North, comprising states in the North East and North West, 13 in all, the PDP will have to struggle to rake up sizeable votes. In the Middle Belt of North central states, both major parties remain strong. The South East and South South remains impregnable for the PDP and APC will have to struggle to make the 25 per cent mark outside Rivers and Edo. How fast Governor Rochas Okorocha, backed by the likes of ex-Governor Achike Udenwa can move remains to be seen.

The South West is likely to remain a stronghold of the APC. It has a tradition of filing behind progressive parties and, the fact that there would be a strong contest would likely encourage the people to votes in high numbers for the tile-tested progressive platform.

If it were to be a football march, commentators would describe it as a crunchy tie. The challenge is to ensure that all elections henceforth, starting with Ekiti and Osun next year are free, fair and credible. Otherwise, rigging becomes the overriding factor.

November 27, 2013
Progressive revolution has started, say APC governors

The Progressive Governors Forum (PGF) said yesterday that the revolution of the progressives had begun.

They issued a statement welcoming five governors into the All Progressives Congress (APC) Governors’ Forum.

The PGF said it welcomed the courageous governors for taking the historic step of leaving the governing, albeit, fast crumbling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) into the progressives fold.

The statement said: “Their movement to the All Progressives Congress (APC), despite all manner of intimidation, harassment and persecution by the Federal Government and the PDP, is worthy of commendation and is indicative of their strong personal principles and commitment to the progress of Nigeria.”

The forum also noted that considering the nature of achievements recorded in their respective states, the truth is that they had no business belonging to a party with no democratic traditions, no vision for Nigeria beyond wasting public resources and further impoverishing Nigerians, in spite of unprecedented oil revenues.

The PGF said: “If anything, we are only welcoming you back home where you belong; to the party that feels the pains of Nigerians and understands that power and responsibility are merely exercised on behalf of the people and only to serve the collective interests of all Nigerians.

“By coming into the fold of the progressives, you have opted to discard the politics of corruption, nepotism and deception in favour of transparent and accountable leadership that is governed by the principles of progress, integrity and equity.

“Together, we shall forge stronger alliances by joining forces with other like-minded progressives to rescue Nigeria from imminent collapse.”

November 27, 2013
Jubilation in Adamawa

There was jubilation in Adamawa State as news filtered in that Governor Murtala Nyako and four other PDP governors had defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Many people took to the streets in Yola, the state capital and in the 21 local government headquarters.

Those jubilating were chanting the names of former Head of State Gen. Muhammadu Buhari and former Lagos State Governor Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, seen as the arrowheads of the APC.

They were saying a new dawn had been heralded and chanting slogans like ‘’death to PDP.’’

One Governor Nyako supporter said: “With this development, the PDP has been buried, we are tired of impunity.’’

Also corroborating, Hajiya Larai, a woman leader in Yola said

“ it’s well glaring that the new re-alignment has pushed the PDP to the unfamiliar territory of being a weaker and weakened political force in the country,’’ she observed.

The APC National Vice Chairman, northeastern zone, Alhaji Umar Duhu, said the two parties agreed “to work together in order to rescue the fledgling democracy of the nation.”

He added: “Today I’m one of the happiest chieftains of the APC in Nigeria and in Adamawa state in particular”

However the Bamanga Tukur faction in the state wants Nigerians to tarry awhile to see what the new APC merger would bring to the table.

The factional secretary Mr.A.T Shehu described the defectors as “drowning men in a sinking ship.’’

November 27, 2013
Lawmakers will decide when to defect, says Tambuwal

House of Representatives Speaker Aminu Tambuwal said yesterday that members would decide when to defect to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Tambuwal, who made his position known in a statement through his Special Adviser on Media, Imam Imam, said it is left to members to activate the process.

The statement said: “MPs will decide collectively on when to defect. They have their internal process if they decide to cross carpet.

“Let us wait and see whether they can activate the process or not.”

The 1999 Constitution allows defection of lawmakers if there is division in any political party.

Section 68 (1) says: “ A member of the Senate or the House of Representatives shall vacate his seat in the House which he is a member if –

(a) he becomes a member of another legislative house;

(b) any other circumstance arise that, if he were not a member of the Senate or the House of Representatives, would cause him to be disqualified for election as a member;

(c) he ceases to be a citizen of Nigeria;

(d) he becomes President, Vice President, Governor, Deputy Governor or a Minister of the Government of the Federation or a Commissioner of the Government of a State or a Special Adviser;

(e) save as otherwise prescribed by this Constitution, he becomes a member of a Commission or other body established by the Constitution or by any other law;

(f) without just cause he is absent from meetings of the House of which he is a member or a period amounting in the aggregate to more than one-third of the total number of days during which the House meets in any one year;

(g) being a person whose election to the House was sponsored by a political party, he becomes a member of another political party before the expiration of the period for which that House was elected:

“Provided that his membership of the latter political party is not as a result of a division in the political party of which he was previously a member or a merger of two or more political parties or factions by one of which he was previously sponsored.”

November 27, 2013
Governors’ defection long overdue, says presidential aide

A MID fears that some governors defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC) may affect the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Special Adviser to the President on Political Affairs, Ahmed Gulak, said yesterday that the action is a welcome development.

Speaking with State House correspondents at the Presidential Villa, Gulak said their movement was no threat to the PDP and the Presidency ahead of the 2015 general elections.

He said the pronouncement by the aggrieved governors would spur an influx of new members to the PDP from other parties.

Reacting to the defection, Gulak said: “Well, I know as of fact that five of them say that they will now join APC. But I know that two of them issued statements that they are not part of that, Governor of Niger and Governor of Jigawa State. This is the fact on ground.”

“And I believe those others, for long time and I have said it before, that their hearts have not been in PDP. It is good that they have shown the world that they have taken a stand. So that PDP will not be distracted, so that PDP, as a party, will be focused to build our party because a lot of people are waiting for this moment. A lot of people even in the APC, ACN, ANPP have contacted me that they want to come back to PDP and they were just waiting for what happened today to happen. And to us, it is a good development.

“The Presidency does not feel threatened, the PDP does not feel threatened. The PDP is the party to beat. We have had it before; even people who occupied higher offices left the party and came back to the party. Outside there, there is nothing, it’s empty. PDP is the only party.”

The presidential aide also maintained that the PDP will be ready to welcome them back if they decide to return.

“Reconciliation is an ongoing thing. If they go outside, they are like those that went there before them and test that the outside there is empty, they are always welcome back home, like we did before.” He stated

November 27, 2013
Osun APC, lawmaker hail Aregbesola

The All Progressives Congress (APC) in Osun State has congratulated Governor Rauf Aregbesola on his third anniversary in office.

In a congratulatory message, the party’s Interim Chairman, Elder Adelowo Adebiyi, described the Aregbesola administration’s achievements as “second to none” in the state’s history.

APC congratulated the people for having Aregbesola, “who is transformation personified and a trail blazer”, as their governor.

It said the administration’s three years in office have been “years of total transformation”, adding that Aregbesola has restored hope to the people.

APC said: “Aregbesola has brought hope to the state and restored its lost glory. He has made governance meaningful again to the people, who, for seven-and-a-half years, experienced maladministration, victimisation, underdevelopment and ill governance.”

The Chairman of the Lagos State House of Assembly Committee on Information, Segun Olulade, also congratulated Aregbesola.

In a statement, he said Osun, under Aregbesola’s visionary leadership, has recorded landmark achievements in the last three years.

Olulade said: “Osun people are the direct beneficiaries of good governance, under the visionary leadership of Rauf Aregbesola, and I congratulate them for choosing a leader that measures up to their aspirations.”

Olulade said the only way to sustain the development in Osun was to re-elect Aregbesola.

He said: “Without fear or favour, I confidently say that the Aregbesola administration has surpassed the expectations of the people in terms of road construction, youth development, education, agriculture and infrastructure, among others.”

Olulade said Aregbesola’s performance reflects the APC’s ideology.

November 27, 2013
Emergency rule: Senate, Service Chiefs meet tomorrow

The Senate and Service chiefs will meet tomorrow for an update on the Emergency rule in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states.

The Senate invited the Service chiefs, following its resolution to receive them in plenary on the progress since the emergency rule in the northeast states.

Senate Leader Victor Ndoma-Egba said the meeting earlier scheduled for yesterday had to be shifted till tomorrow, following yesterday’s suspension of plenary.

The Senate suspended plenary to enable the All Progressives Congress (APC) senators attend a board meeting of the party in Abuja.

Besides, the sitting was suspended in honour of a member of the House of Representatives, Raphael Oloye Nomiye, who died at the weekend.

It was not clear yesterday whether the Senate would hold the briefing in camera or in the open. But some informed sources said it would be a closed-door session because of the sensitive nature of issues.

Those expected at the meeting are: the Chief of Defence Staff, Vice Admiral Ola Sa’ad Ibrahim; Chief of Air Staff, Air Vice Marshal Alex Badeh; Chief of Army Staff, Lt.-Gen. Azubuike Ihejirika; Chief of Naval Staff, Rear Admiral Dele Ezeoba; Inspector-General of Police (IGP), Mohammed Abubakar and Director-General of the State Security Service (SSS), Ekpenyong Ita.

November 27, 2013
What future for PDP?

With five out of 23 governors of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) joining the opposition All Progressives Congress ( APC), the fortunes of the party may be at stake. It is now left with 18 while the APC will now have 16. The other two governors of Ondo and Anambra states are controlled by the Labour Party ( LP) and the All Progressives Grand Alliance ( APGA) respectively.

Without doubt, the strength of the party has been reduced. But the question is how will it fare in the face of this reduction in its spheres of influence and electoral fortune? At a point in the history of the party, it had absolute majority in terms of the number of governors, senators and House of Representatives members.

In the legislative election held on April 12, 2003, the party won 54.5% of the popular vote and 223 out of 360 seats in the House of Representatives, and 76 out of 109 seats in the Senate. Its candidate in the presidential election of April 19, 2003, Olusegun Obasanjo, was re-elected with 61.9% of the vote. It had 29 governors to its name. The party’s overwhelming presence in almost every electoral contest raised the fear of a possible one party in the country.

Indeed, one or two chieftains of the party openly declared that they would prefer Nigeria being under a one-party system. It was the beginning of the dream of the party ruling for 60 years.

All that certainly has changed now. There now exists what could best be described as a balance of terror. If anything else, it is a significant improvement in the fortunes and ability of the opposition to challenge the presidency.

Former Lagos State Commissioner of Police, Abubakar Tsav described it as “ a major depletion” of PDP’s fortunes. He warned that except it wakes up, it will not find it funny.

“What has happened is a major depletion of the fortunes of the PDP. It must now wake up otherwise it will not find it funny. All the five governors have supporters and they are sure to go with their governors”, he said.

Tsav may be correct. These governors are people who have nothing to lose. Most of them are in their second tenure and they have deep pockets. They can afford to spend their last kobo just to make a statement and assert themselves in their areas of influence.

Geographically, the whole of the Southwest region, perhaps with the exception of Ondo, has now fallen into the hands of the “ opposition “. The Northwest, too, has been cornered by the opposition. The same with the Northeast. The PDP is left with its advantage in the Northcentral geo- political zone and the Southeast. In the Southsouth, it will have to contend with a depletion of goodwill.

Tuesday’s development in the PDP underscored the gravity of the crisis that has been plaguing the party in the last one year. Indeed, five months ago, precisely in July, Adamawa State Governor, Murtala Nyako boasted that the People’s Democratic Party was seriously ill and that himself and other aggrieved governors and stakeholders were just awaiting its death to give it a befitting burial.

It is certainly not the best of times for the party which claims to be the largest in Africa. Pity, it’s legendary crises resolution mechanism, more popularly known as “family affair”, seemed to have miserably failed to solve this riddle. Two things have aggravated the crisis. First, the level of discontent was high. Second, disgruntled elements are also powerful in their own right.

Nyako’s tone lent credence to it all.

“Some of the stakeholders only deemed it fit to remain in the party due to the political positions they occupy presently and if the party failed to survive its self-inflicted illness, they will give it a befitting burial and leave for good.

“People are saying that the PDP is dead or about to die but a concerned person like me will remain in the party till it dies and give it a befitting burial. If PDP will die, let it die in our hands so that we will give it a befitting burial and mourn her.”

Coming from a governor elected on the platform of the party for two consecutive times speaks volume. Unfortunately, all efforts to master the crisis failed to achieve the desired goal.

When President Goodluck Jonathan told newsmen on Sunday that the much anticipated meeting between him and the aggrieved governors would not hold, many people read it as the last chance for the party to mend its fences. But it was not to be. The future of the party retaining the government at the centre is dicey, but it will depend on how the opposition manages and harnesses the present development.

November 27, 2013
G5 + APC = tectonic shift

While questions are still being asked why two of the G7 governors of the new Peoples Democratic Party (nPDP) are surprisingly yet to migrate to the All Progressives Congress (APC), the movement of the other five into the main opposition party looks set to trigger a tectonic shift in Nigerian politics. The G5, comprising the governors of Kano, Adamawa, Kwara, Rivers and Sokoto States, have burnt their bridges and thrown in their lot with the 11 APC governors to form a formidable political organisation capable of taking on the increasingly weakened PDP behemoth. More governors are expected to join them, not the least the two reluctant governors of Niger and Jigawa States. If that should happen, Nigerian politics will experience the equivalent of a lockdown in which the ruling party would be paralysed and in danger of becoming the opposition party.

The journey to this historic and exciting, if not revolutionary, shift was hard and long, complete with unending uncertainties. Major disagreements within the PDP, much of it consequent upon the coerced (some more sympathetic officials say coaxed) election of Bamanga Tukur as party chairman had triggered a most unsettling relationship between governors long used to enjoying unchallenged dominance in their states and Alhaji Tukur whose leadership style is meddlesome, grating, domineering and irreverent. Many PDP governors never liked Alhaji Tukur’s style, but it was only the G7 that embarked on open rebellion. And with the debacle in the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF), what appeared like a covert war of attrition began to metamorphose into a clearly definable war in which the combatants were recognisable.

President Goodluck Jonathan, who at first maintained impassive neutrality, believing he could reconcile the two camps, soon began to vacillate between studious detachment one day and open and undiluted animosity the next day. While Alhaji Tukur sustained his detestation of the rebellious governors, the president hesitated between dialogue and rebuff. But with the impasse in Rivers, in which Governor Rotimi Amaechi felt impelled to openly stand up to the president, it was all but clear that sooner rather than later, Nigerian politics would witness a major shift or realignment. The leaders of the APC themselves worked actively to encourage the dissonance within the ruling party, and hoped the disagreements would worsen until they became irreconcilable. Coupled with the festering sore in Adamawa, a sore engendered by certain PDP factions favourable to or promoted by the Alhaji Tukur/Jibril Aminu forces, the die seemed cast.

As if to stoke up the powder keg, the presidency turned its hostile attention to Kwara State and began what some interpreted as a systematic subversion of the person and influence of Bukola Saraki, the state’s former governor. Worse, Governor Aliyu Wammako’s Sokoto, whether based on hegemonic principles or simple political considerations, never quite cottoned on to Dr Jonathan’s politics. Instead the state began to oppose him even before he was elected candidate of the PDP and later president. For the unexpectedly reluctant Governors Babangida Aliyu of Niger and Sule Lamido of Jigawa, it is too early to say whether the shifting quicksand of politics would not at a later date make them change their minds. They may, on the other hand, hope to be courted by the desperate Jonathan forces, and be content to wring concessions from the presidency.

What is much clearer is that the battle between Nigeria’s main political forces is about to be joined. The easiest part of course is merging of individuals and political interests. The hardest part is sustaining the merger in the face of a scathing and vengeful presidency whose style, disposition and tactics are both Neanderthal and sanguinary. Dr Jonathan has about him men and women whose unscrupulousness is fast becoming legendary. They are not clean or principled fighters. They do not mind biting the ears of an opponent, hitting him in the groin, or delivering all sorts of illegal and spiteful blows. Such tactics often work marvellously in the short run, and against an opponent without stamina, it could prove lethal. Famous for its awkwardness in negotiations and compromises, the Jonathan camp will sense danger in the coming together of the G5 plus APC camp and go for broke. Whether he will succeed in obliterating or weakening the new group will depend on how clever the enlarged opposition is and how ready it is for a protracted and bloody battle.

If the enlarged opposition has not come too soon, and they prove agile in battle, holding forts and defending every inch of ground, it is almost guaranteed that their ranks would swell, with or without Niger and Jigawa. If the movement of the G5 governors is accompanied by wholesale movement of their local and national legislators, the Jonathan government, which has so far been clumsy in relating with the legislature, will find it even harder to govern. And much more than the new APC, which will doubtless gain a lot, the country will be the bigger gainer because the realignment of forces would probably lead to more robust and better lawmaking than it would promote legislative or bureaucratic paralysis.

However, with the new enlargement of the opposition, any pretence of ideological purity must be discarded by the APC. Even in the days of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the party had had its progressivism questioned by purists. The ideological dilution became more pronounced when clearly conservative parties merged with the ACN to form the APC. Now, with the addition of five more parties, the APC has unquestionably become an amalgam of political parties whose immediate priority is to take power in 2015, and later begin the slow process of reconstructing and remaking the deformed polity. The synthesization of its ideology will follow, if necessary, and when appropriate. Welcome, the Age of Realpolitik.

What is certain to make news in the coming days will be the desperate attempt by the Jonathan presidency to undermine the legality of the migration of the five governors to the APC. The PDP will not fight a clean war. More, they will take the battle to the five states and attempt to foment rebellion against the governors, and then infiltrate party ranks in each state by harassing and intimidating the weak among them. It is likely the APC has anticipated the shape of the coming war and may possess one or two jokers. If the war is fought lawfully, there is no way the country will not be better off, for Nigeria is overdue for a revolutionary makeover, whether by an opportunistic amalgam or a systematically expanded opposition. Anything but the status quo in 2015 should give the country a breather and raise hopes of a better tomorrow.

November 27, 2013