Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC). Will he revive his presidential ambition on the new platform? Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU writes on the prospects and constraints of his struggle for the Presidency.
He is a big catch for the main opposition party, the All Progressives Congress (APC). He is not new to the platform, having worked variously with many of its national leaders, either as the Vice President, presidential candidate of the defunct Action Congress (AC) and automatic member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Board of Trustees (BoT). However, it is believed that his defection may change the permutation in the party, especially as the opposition leaders search for a credible presidential candidate.
The odds weighed heavily against the Turaki Adamawa in the PDP. In the ruling party, he had a slim chance of survival. History is repeating itself. In 2007, he had defected to the defunct AC and emerged as its presidential flag bearer. But, he was defeated at the poll by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua. Shortly after the poll, he retraced his steps to the PDP. He attempted to mend fences with his former boss, former President Olusegun Obasanjo. But, even as the consensus candidate of the Northern establishment in the 2011 presidential elections, he could not defeat President Goodluck Jonathan.
After the election, Atiku was sidelined by the PDP leadership. Since he has not dumped his presidential ambition, he was perceived as a threat to Dr. Jonathan. Many pro-Jonathan crusaders have branded him as the politician on the prowl, stressing that he may likely emerge as the beneficiary of the push for power shift to the North.
The Adamawa-born politician also had a running battle with the former PDP National Chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur, and Governor Muritala Nyako over the running of the state chapter. He had chided the former chairman for high handedness and overbearing attitude. He said Tuku’s leadership traits are offensive to democracy.
Atiku complained that he was never carried along in the running of the party, despite the privileges conferred on him as a former Vice President by the PDP constitution. An attempt was even made to exclude his name from the list of delegates to the last national convention of the party in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FTC). His right was restored, following a formal complaint by him to the national secretariat. However, he parted ways with the mainstream PDP at the convention when he emerged as one of the arrowheads of the New PDP.
The former Vice President has remained a major factor in national politics since he joined the fray in the Third Republic. He has been a consummate politician, great mobiliser, master strategist and crowd puller. In the PDP, it was believed that he was gathering forces, ahead of 2015. His associates have confided that he will renew his bid for federal power in the APC.
Atiku’s ambition to rule the country had hit the rock four times. In the aborted Third Republic, he was projected by his mentor, the late General Sheu Yar’Adua, the founder of the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM). That was when the military leader, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, excluded him and other key politicians from the race. At the Jos convention of the proscribed Social Democratic Party (SDP), he stepped down for the late Chief Moshood Abiola, who emerged as the flag bearer.
He had the chance in 2003. But, as his former associate, former Governor Orji Kalu of Abia State recalled, the former Vice President bungled it. That year, many governors were ready to serve as campaign managers for Atiku. They believed that, if he contested, he would beat his boss, Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, thereby saving them from persistent persecution. But the former Vice President failed to seize the moment. At midnight, he directed his supporters, who were in the majority, to endorse Obasanjo.
In 2007, he was not as strong as he was in 2003. Although he was more determined, the power of incumbency wielded by Obasanjo was so overwhelming. Yet, he was undeterred. In 2011, Atiku picked up the gantlet. He was on the firing line. He successfully mobilised the Northern leaders to select him as the regional candidate. But the regional support collapsed at Eagles Squares, Abuja, during the subsequent presidential primaries.
Atiku is back in the ring at a critical point in national history. Ahead of 2015, the debate on good governance is on the front burner. The North also is intensifying its agitating for power shift, based on an inexplicable agreement on presidential zoning between President Jonathan and Northern leaders. The ruling party is in turmoil, torn apart by acrimony and intrigues.
However, analysts contend that Atiku’s defection to the APC is not motivated by any ideological drive. Neither was the civil war in the PDP an ideological war. But, his argument is solid and convincing. “The country is in crisis and every effort must be made to rescue Nigeria”, he told reporters in Lagos. He explained that he was on tour of the six geo-political zones for consultation on the way forward. During the consultations, the options were weighed. Some of his supporters persuaded him to stay on in the PDP. But, their argument was countered by other associates who pointed out that there will be no level playing ground for ambitious party chieftains at the primaries. They reasoned that the primaries will be designed for the endorsement of President Jonathan.
Other associates advised him to explore the possibility of nurturing the PDM. But, it was discovered that those handling the PDM project have never attempted to project the party to all the regions. Therefore, it lacks taproots across the zones. This is at variance with Atiku’s posturing as a man who has built networks across the country. Also, old PDM members are ready to discredit the platform. Last year, one of the founders, Chief Tony Anenih, the PDP BoT Chairman, said that Atiku did not have the mandate to revive the group without consultation with the surviving members. He said the former Vice President cannot single handedly transform the political group into a political party without their collective support.
Sources close to Atiku revealed that the only option was the APC. Many APC leaders are his associates. “Having endorsed the push for democratic change in 2015, the former Vice President is not interested in polarising the rank of the opposition, whose cause he has identified with. He is putting the country first before any ambition”, added the source.
If Atiku enters the presidential race, he will be eyeing the elusive office for the fourth time. In his first attempt, he was prompted by the late Gen. Yar’Adua. From the onset, he was an integral member of the PDM kitchen cabinet, a dependable ally of the Tafida Katsina and confidant at the birth of the Peoples Front of Nigeria (PFN). He was not in the dark when it was resolved that the political machinery should join the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP), one of the two parties decreed into existence by former military President Babangida.
When Yar’Adua was being edged out of the presidential race, he decided to groom Atiku, his loyal associate, for the number one job. Atiku became the third SDP presidential aspirant, along with Alhaji Baba Gana Kingibe and Abiola at the Jos Convention. In those days, embattled politicians were involved in a lot of horse trading. To defeat Kingibe, Atiku was asked to step down for Abiola at the shadow poll. But a deep gulf later ensued between the Yar’Adua and Abiola. The bone of contention was Abiola’s refusal to accept Atiku as his running mate, contrary to Yar’Adua’s calculation. The 14 SDP state chairmen made it impossible by throwing their weight behind Kingibe. The loss of the two slots-Presidency and Vice Presidency was painful to Yar’Adua. The only option left for him was to gain the control of the party. He installed Anenih as the SDP national chairman. It is an irony of political life that both Anenih and Atiku, who harmoniously defended the PDM’s interest at that time, are now divided by the power games of the post-Yar’Adua period.
After the annulment of the historic 1993 presidential election, politicians were in disarray. Yar’Adua wanted to bounce back. Atiku was part of that scramble for power as a member of the PDM in the 1994 constitutional conference set up by the late Head of State, Gen. Sani Abacha. Along with Yar’Adua, he pursued the goal of setting a disengagement day for the military. Yar’Adua later died in mysterious circumstances in the prison, following his conviction over a phantom coup. After his demise, the bereaved PDM members started to look up to Atiku, the successor to the vacant stool of his mentor.
When the former Head of State, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, set up a transition programme, PDM became the engine room and most formidable caucus in the PDP. Atiku worked with other members, including the late Chief Sunday Afolabi, Chief Anenih, Prof. Ango Abdullahi, Senator Jibril Martins-Kuye, Alhaji Lawal kaita, Chief Dapo Sarunmi, Chief Olorunfunmi Basorun, Chief Yomi Edu, Senator Rashidi Ladoja, Senator Tony Adefuye, Mrs. Onikepo Oshodi, Mrs. Titilayo Ajanaku, and Alhaji Abubakar Rimi, to install Obasanjo as the President in 1999.
In 1999, Atiku dumped his presidential ambition. He returned to Adamawa State and emerged as the governor-elect. Obasanjo, the President-elect, was just floating in the PDP. He had no root. He emerged based on three factors. The North had reluctantly conceded the Presidency to the Southwest. Some Northern elements believed that, when he was the military Head of State, he did not work against the interest of the region. Also, the military wanted to remain as a factor and power broker. No other Yoruba man could be trusted, since Chief Olu Falae refused to join the PDP.
Obasanjo did not have any blue-print. PDM members-Atiku, Afolabi, Sarunmi and Edu-were part of the numerous delegations asking him to return to power. Obasanjo had a nightmare selecting a running mate. Four names were presented to him-Rimi, Bamanga Tukur, Prof. Abdullahi and Atiku. He settled for Atiku because of the PDM’s influence.
As the Vice President, Atiku was the de facto President. He was the Controlling Minister of the Economy. To get things done, politicians and others must pass through Atiku route. The former Vice President was also popular among the governors. Thus, in 2003, many of them urged him to displace Obasanjo. The President was sweating profusely at the primaries. He prostrated before Atiku before earning re-nomination. At that point too, Atiku ceased to be the apple of Obasanjo’s eye.
Henceforth, the former Vice President was under security watch. He was accused of corruption and disloyalty. He became a nominal figure in the government with no duties to perform. The government even made frantic efforts to cripple him politically. But Atiku ran to the court for security and survival. The former Vice President enjoyed tremendous goodwill as the AC presidential candidate. However, after the election, he returned to the PDP. The move embarrassed the AC leadership. Other PDP defectors and associates of Atiku, including Kaita and Ghali Umar Naa’ba, fired salvos at the party, saying that it was not different from the PDP. But Atiku also took other steps. He ran to Abeokuta to make peace with his estranged boss, Obasanjo. It was to be a secret fence-mending meeting. But, coming out of the meeting, an embarrassed Atiku was accosted by many reporters. The former President yelled at his visitor. Irked by the turn of events, former Abia State Governor Kalu chided Atiku for the wrong step. The reconciliation was not fruitful. It did not lead to any renewal of contact. When the former Vice President indicated unfolded his plan to contest for the Presidency in 2011, Obasanjo laughed mischievously. “I dey laugh o”, he said. It was loaded with meanings. Indeed, Obasanjo joined forces with President Jonathan to abort Atiku’s dream. When Atiku was tearing the record of the President at the primaries, Obasanjo stood up and whispered some words into the President’s ears. Atiku lost.
Last year, at a public lecture at Ibadan, Oyo State capital, Obasanjo castigated Atiku. He said he refused to hand over to him because he could not vouch for him.
Now that Atiku is back to the progressive fold, what are his chances? A source said that he needs to reconcile with former AC leaders in the APC, who may be weary of his style. Many of them have described him as an inconsistent politician, who jumped the ship after losing the presidential election.
With the defection of the former Vice President, APC now has six presidential aspirants. They are Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Senator Bukola Saraki, Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, and Sam Nda-Isaiah.s
