Saturday, November 21, 2015 governorship poll in Kogi State is six days away. Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu, in this report on the final lap of the preparations, explores the source of the anxiety in the state ahead the election
There is tension in Lokoja, the Kogi State capital and in most of the communities in the confluence state. The Nation investigation during the week confirms increased anxiety amongst the electorates and the candidates as the Saturday, November 21, 2015 Kogi State Governorship Election approaches.
Some observers said the major cause of the anxiety in the state remains the age-long political rivalry of the candidates fielded by the two leading political parties in the election, the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the major opposition in the state, the All Progressives Congress (APC), Governor Idris Wada and Former Governor Abubakar Audu, respectively.
Although Wada of PDP and Audu of APC are not the only candidates in the election, majority of the people who confirmed the tension said their presence in the race is the major source of concern to stakeholders and observers alike.
According to two PDP stakeholders, Alhaji Abdulmalik Ibrahim and Alhaji Ahmed Jumoh from Ibira and Kabba areas respectively, who spoke to us on Thursday, the tension in their areas, and indeed in most communities in the state, is because apart from the political influence and connection of the two political rivals; there is the feeling that APC, though still in the opposition in the state, has suddenly become so popular that even in Lord Lugard House there seems to be the fear that APC has emerged a rival that cannot be taken for granted in the state. Ahmed explained that this fear is partly attributable to the kind of intrigues that trailed the organisation of PDP’s primary election and the emergence of Governor Wada notwithstanding the deep disagreement amongst some powerful stakeholders over his candidature.
He said that after PDP lost Wada’s ward and local government to APC during the last presidential election, “many of our leaders openly opposed the governor’s candidacy. This sentiment notwithstanding, Wada got 709 votes to defeat Jubril Isa Echoho, who scored 139 votes at the party’s primary election held at Lokoja Stadium. Since then, things have not been the same here. This is also one of the reasons we are particularly worried that PDP leaders in the state may not have been fully reconciled before this election.”
Also, some Audu’s supporters, who spoke with The Nation during the week, boasted that they are certain the APC candidate will dethrone the incumbent governor and his party, the PDP, even as they alleged that the crack in the party, which followed disagreements over Wada’s emergence, cannot be resolved before Saturday’s election. “While we are going to this election as a united and enthusiastic family, PDP is mortally disadvantaged because of deep seated anger and resolve by offended members to avenge the party leadership,” said Ozigi, who described himself as a staunch APC supporter.
Another supporter of Audu had also said, shortly after the controversial postponement of the PDP primary election, that PDP is not likely to recover from the resultant crack, when he said, “You can see the reason for our jubilation. There really is no way out of this disaster for the PDP and we can start getting ready to move into Lugard House come January 2016.”
Feelers from Wada’s camp however show that both the governor and PDP leaders behind him are not intimidated by the enthusiasm in the camp of Audu’s APC. “What nonsense are you talking about? Kogi indigenes are not foolish enough to even contemplate changing a winning team, Alhaji Isah Marka retorted. He added that the alleged crack within PDP has since been resolved and that “the Kogi electorates, who have seen the dividends of democracy under Wada’s leadership, will certainly reward him by ensuring his re-election.”
Other fears over the election
The denial aside, observers confirmed that the election promises to be dicey. The fear is not limited to the cat and mouse relationship of the two leading candidates and political parties. There were fears also expressed over the preparedness of the electoral body, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Femi Falana, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, had, a month ago warned that INEC, as constituted then, lacked the power to fix dates for election and to conduct them.
In a statement Falana said then that the electoral commission was then constituted by two national commissioners and therefore cannot take any valid decision.
“In other words, as the INEC is not validly constituted as required by section 159 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999, as amended, its decisions are liable to be set aside,” he said, adding, “Even when the INEC was constituted by a chairman ?and three other national commissioners in 2010, the Federal High Court held that the electoral body was not competent to take any decision.”
Apart from this, which an official in INEC said had since been taken care of; there are other issues that an insider said must be giving the major candidates some sleepless nights.
One of them is the power shift issue. Until Wada and Audu’s emergence as flag bearers of their parties, keen observers had identified power shift agitation as a decisive factor in the Kogi election. With Audu and Wada now the leading candidates, the belief is that the quest may have been consigned to 2019. That notwithstanding, the candidates are eager to see how the seemingly postponement of the quest will affect the turn out on Saturday and the result of the election.
Another major fear amongst the leading candidates, we gathered, is how they fared in the performance debate during the campaigns. Since Wada the current governor and Audu the former governor have had opportunities of serving the people, the debate over how the fared dominated the campaign. Most of the electorates that spoke during the week said the result of the election would be determined by the people’s conviction on how the two leaders impacted on the lives of the common people and the state when they occupied the Government House.
Campaign directors of the two candidates swore they did not fare badly in the area of infrastructural and human development.
Wada’s winning points
As the serving governor, Captain Idris Wada is expected to enjoy the advantages of the incumbency factor, a factor that has over the years played a major role in Nigerian politics.
Following the controversies that trailed his emergence as the party’s flag bearer, there were fears that Wada may contest under a sharply divided house.
However, our investigation confirms that both Wada and the PDP have made efforts to consolidate its base. Reports say immediately after the PDP primary election was decided in his favour, Wada embarked on intense reconciliatory moves to woo his opponents in the PDP. He tried to reach out to his rivals, Jibrin Echocho, Moses Amoto and Muhammed Alli and to other aggrieved chieftains of the PDP in the state like Senator Smart Adeyemi, Sunday Karimi, among others.
Reports from his camp said the efforts yielded desired results as some of the aggrieved chieftains remained with the governor, though his major rival, Echocho, joined Audu and the APC. If these claims are true, Wada still stands a chance of re-election on Saturday
Audu’s winning points
For Audu, whose party, the APC, controls the government at the centre, his supporters expect him to take advantage of the influence, popularity and support of the federal might, especially the cult-like influence and popularity of President Muhammadu Buhari in the North. His party in Kogi State is also not doing badly with two senators and six members of the House of Representatives elected on its APC platform against one senator and three representatives elected on the PDP’s platform.
It is also in his interest that his party, the APC, also added more members in the state House of Assembly as it now boasts of 10 members as against 15 PDP members in the House.
Analysts also said the appointment of Audu’s co-contestant in the August APC gubernatorial primary election, James Ocholi (SAN), as Minister may have ensured a more united APC in the state.
Added to this is Jibrin Echocho’s support, a development PDP labored hard to avoid.
These points notwithstanding, no one can say for sure who will laugh last. The battle has been tough, the political generals in the race have also been deternined and thorough. All that remains is to unveil the verdict of Kogi electorates.
