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  • APC, PDP, LP, AP battle for Senate in Oyo

    APC, PDP, LP, AP battle for Senate in Oyo

    Unlike in 2011, when the senatorial race across the three districts in Oyo State was among three political parties-the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Accord Party (AP), four parties – All Progressives Congress (APC),  Labour Party (LP), PDP and AP – are fielding candidates for the parliamentary elections. BISI OLADELE examines the strengths and weaknesses of the flag bearers and their chances at the polls. 

    Four parties-the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP) and the Accord Party (AP)-are warming up for senatorial elections in Oyo State.

    In Oyo North, Oyo Central and Oyo South districts, there is enthusiasm among the stakeholders. The only obstacle to a successful poll now is the lack of Permanent Voter’s Cards. The distributions of the cards was not successful in Oyo State.

    The senatorial election will be very interesting because of the defections across platforms. Those who contested on the platform of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in 2011 are now flag bearers in the AP and the PDP. Those who fell out with the PDP and the APC are now vying on the platform of the AP and LP.

    There are three serving senators in the race. They are experienced politicians. But, they will work hard to retain their seats because new entrants are also working to dislodge them.

    The three senators are Olufemi Lanlehin (Accord), Ayoola Agboola (PDP) and Ayoade Adeseun (PDP). Lanlehin and Adeseun defected from the APC to their new parties.

    Oyo Central

    This struggle for the Senate is expected to be tough in this district. This is because the district cuts across three major towns of Ibadan, Oyo and Ogbomoso. Adeseun, who hails from Ogbomoso, currently occupies the seat.

    But, the Speaker of the  Oyo State House of Assembly, Hon. Monsurat Sunmonu, has picked the APC ticket to contest the position. She will face Adeseun and Chief Oyebisi ilaka, the Ladilu of Oyo, at the poll. Ilaka is the Accord Party flag bearer. Sunmonu and Ilaka hail from Oyo town.

    In the LP, where former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala calls the shots, Comrade Olu Abiala is the flag bearer.

    Sunmonu

    Sunmonu is an astute lawmaker. A former employee of the British Immigration Service, she returned to Nigeria in 2010 to join politics. She is representing Oyo East/Oyo West Constituency in the House of Assembly.

    Her tenure witnessed unprecedented peace in the House, judging by the vices that have assailed the parliament since 1999. This has shored up her popularity in the district and the entire state.

    The APC and Accord zoned the senatorial slot to Oyo because it is the only town in the district that has not produced a senator since 1999.

    Besides, the APC is waxing stronger in two local governments in Ibadan among the five that make up the district in the capital city. They are Lagelu and Akinyele.

    With her grassroots style and gender appeal, Sunmonu stands a better chance in the race.

    Yet, she faces a hurdle in Oyo, her home town, where Ilaka is also a major contender.

     Ilaka

    A United Kingdom-trained tax consultant, Ilaka contested and lost to Adeseun in 2011. But, the fortune of Accord has risen in the last two years in Oyo, making him a strong contender once again.

    The candidates fielded by Accord are mostly riding on the fame of Senator Rashidi Ladoja, who is well known in the state. With the possibility of getting reasonable votes in Oyo, Ilaka is also likely to enjoy Ladoja’s goodwill is some parts of Ibadan.

    But, it is doubtful if the Oyo chief will garner enough votes to emerge as the winner.

    Adeseun

    Adeseun was a member of the House of Representatives. In 1999, he was a member of the Alliance for Democracy. In 2003, he defected to the PDP. In 2011, he was a Chieftain of the ACN. Until recently, he was an APC leader in the district.

    The senator is back in the race after losing the governorship ticket to Senator Teslim Folarin. He is popular across the district. He is an experienced politician. Adeseun has been reaching out to his constituents through constituency projects.

    As an experienced politician, the senator is counting on his goodwill among constituents. The PDP is also depending on the federal might. Folarin’s strength in some parts of Ibadan is also an advantage.

    Yet, Adeseun may find it tougher this time. The PDP’s popularity has declined in the state. The dwindling fortune has reflected in the way it was defeated in the 2011 general elections, in spite of power of incumbency. The crisis generated by its primaries this year has not been resolved.

    In Ogbomoso, his home town, three people are vying for both governorship and senatorial seats on the platforms of different parties. While Alao-Akala is vying under the Labour Party, Hon. Fatai Buhari is the APC’s senatorial candidate for Oyo North. He is the third candidate from the town. Obviously, votes in the town will be divided across the three lines. Adeseun is not likely to pull any meaningful votes in Oyo and two other local governments in Ibadan. He will count on the PDP’s strength in Ona-Ara, Oluyole and perhaps, Egeda local governments to get votes. With the odds against him, it is believed that the senator faces a huge hurdle to retain his seat.

    Abiala

    The LP candidate, Comrade Olu Abiala, will slug it out with the three. Abiala, a renowned labour unionist ,is in partisan politics for the first time. The election will be an uphill task for the former Secretary o the Nigerian Union of Teachers (NUT),  Oyo State chapter. He hails from Ibadan.

    Oyo South  Lanlehin

    The senator joined Accord earlier this year. He is a well-known politician. He hopes to coast into victory with his power of incumbency and popularity. He may also enjoy some goodwill in Ibadan because of Ladoja.

    But, Lanlehin, who rode to victory,on the crest of the ACN, may not find it smooth this time. The political space is more polarised today while the APC is working harder daily to win more voters. Besides, some APC members and other stakeholders believe that Lanlehin should have waited in the party to pick the governorship ticket after Governor Abiola Ajimobi leaves office. This may also work against him. His major huddle is the APC. Besides, there are some people who are not happy over his defection.

    Soji Akanbi

    The APC candidate, Soji Akanbi, is an experienced politician. He was a governorship aspirant in 2011.  Since he picked the APAC ticket, Akanbi has been working to entrench himself within and outside the party across the senatorial district. A follower of the late Alhaji Lam Adesina, the former governor of the state,  Akanbi is close to key players in the Lam Adesina political family.

    His party is an added advantage because it is popular in the district.

    But, Akanbi must work very hard to defeat Lanlehin. He will need to warm himself into the hearts of voters outside the camp because they will ultimately decide who emerges the senator.

    Adedeji Otiti

    The PDP candidate relies mostly on her party and gender appeal to win the election. The PDP candidate in the 2011 election, Kamorudeen Adedibu, was defeated by the incumbent.

    Otiti is only relatively known in the political circle. Her political experience is doubtful. But, she may be a candidate of the future.

    Akinyo

    Nurudeen Akinyo, who recently defected to the LP, is new in Oyo politics. He was a Special Adviser to Governor Abiola Ajimobi. Although he hails from Ibadan, Akinyo will have to cover several miles in popularity to win the election,

    Oyo North Agboola

    The candidate of the PDP, Senator Ayoola Agboola, is the candidate to beat in this district. He is a grassroots politician and he is entrenched in the district. The power of incumbency may also count for him.

    But, Agboola faces a huge hurdle in his Oke-Ogun Constituency because the LP candidate, Hon. Tajudeen Abisodun Kareem, who is representing Atibo/Saki East/West in the House of Representatives, is also a grassroots mobiliser. Both of them were with Alao-Akala, but Kareem followed his boss to LP.

    Agboola faces a tough time in the three local governments in Ogbomoso where Alao-Akala delivered for him in 2011.

    Buhari

    Hon. Fatai Buhari is a former member of the House of Representatives. He is the Commissioner for Local Governments and Chieftaincy Affairs. He relies on his popularity and that of his party, the APC, in Oke-Ogun and Ogbomoso to win the election. Besides, the party,  zoned the position to Ogbomoso.

    But, Buhari will need to work extremely hard to win the three councils in Ogbomoso where Alao-Akala also hails from. He also needs to work very hard to garner enough votes in Oke-Ogun to win the election.

  • Ambode, Agbaje battle for Lagos Govt. House

    Ambode, Agbaje battle for Lagos Govt. House

    The die is cast between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the  Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Lagos State. As the two parties warm up for the governorship contest, Assistant Editor LEKE SALAUDEEN examines the strengths and weaknesses of the flag bearers — Akinwunmi Ambode and Olujimi Agbaje – and the issues that will shape the contest.

    The governorship election in Lagos State will be a straight fight between Akinwunmi Ambode of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and Jimi Agbaje of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). But, Ambode, according to observers,  may have the upper hand because his party has dominated politics in the state, since the restoration of civil rule in 1999. Indeed, since its inception, the state has been ruled by the progressives, except in the aborted Third Republic when the late Sir Michael Otedola of the defunct National Republican Convention (NRC) came to power through protest votes by aggrieved members of the proscribed Social Democratic Party (SDP).

    The odds are stacked in Ambode’s favour. But, the APC flag bearer is also not leaving anything to chance. When he was elected as the candidate at the primaries, he acknowledged that the task ahead is daunting, but surmountable. “We have only just commenced the first phase of the execution of our political agenda. The next phase beckons. We must all work together to usher APC back into power in Lagos State,” he said.

    Ambode said his intention is to create a more conducive business environment in the state, to attract more investment opportunities. “My mission and vision is to create a clean, secure, prosperous Lagos State that is driven by a vibrant economy and supported by quality service, equity and justice; a Lagos where no one is discriminated against on account of age, religion, creed or origin.

    “We have a legacy to build upon and it is our collective responsibility to build on the progress that Lagos has witnessed in the last 15 years. In building on the legacies of the last 15 years, it is important to expand the frontiers of doing business in the state that has the potential to be one of the top five economies in Africa. Lagos deserves nothing less and this shall continue to be my message to every Lagosian as we begin to solicit their votes.

    “On my part, I promise never to waiver or fail. I promise to energise and mobilise our teeming supporters in the next phase of this struggle. I put myself to the task knowing full well that the foundation   laid must never be destroyed but built upon. I commit to the continuation of excellence and the upliftment of the lives of all Lagosians.”

    Ambode emerged through a keenly contested primary. He defeated 11 other aspirants with a wide margin. The primary was held at Onikan Stadium and was transmitted live on television. Ambode polled 3,735 of the total 5, 959 votes. His co-contestants, except two, have pledged to team up with him and work for his victory at the poll.

    Before the primary, many observers feared that with, 12 aspirants jostling for the APC ticket, there will be implosion, which would be to the advantage of the PDP in its quest to capture the state in next month’s election. The expectation was that the defeated aspirants would defect with their supporters to the PDP. But, that did not happen.

    One of the aspirants, Tayo Ayinde, described Ambode’s landslide victory as a reward of rigorous campaign, hard work and popularity. “As an APC loyalist, the victory of one of us is victory for all. I shall continue to work for the interest of our party,” he pledged.

    On Ambode’s antecedents, analysts noted that he had been part of the Lagos success story in the last 15 years. But, being a civil servant, he was neither seen nor heard. He was in the background along several others, designing and implementing many of the policies that stood Lagos out from the rest of the country. It was under his watch that former Governor Asiwaju Bola Tinubu survived the war he fought against former President Olusegun Obasanjo when he (Tinubu) created additional 37 Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs), which led to the seizure of local governments’ allocations by the Obasanjo administration.

    Ambode designed a template that revolution-alised revenue generation in the state from N600 million to over N6 billion monthly; thereby ensuring that all civil servants in the state received their monthly salaries without delay. Ambode is believed to have a burning desire to ensure that things continue to work in the state. “I have been part of the transformation of Lagos. I am one of the designers of the structure you are seeing in the state. Now is the time for me to take over the driver’s seat,” he noted.

    Agbaje, the PDP flag bearer, is another passionate Lagosian who has been yearning to contribute his quota to the state’s development. The strategy to draft Agbaje into the race on the platform of the PDP was devised in February 2013 when party stakeholders  had a closed-door meeting with President Goodluck Jonathan on how to tackle the ruling party in the forthcoming general elections. It was at the meeting that it was agreed that Agbaje should be the party’s next governorship candidate in Lagos. The Agbaje agenda was said to have been conceived by the late National Security Adviser Andrew Azazi.

    Agbaje has been moving from one party to the other in the last couple of years. He was among the governorship aspirants in Lagos in 2007 on the platform of the defunct  Action Congress (AC). When he failed to get the party’s ticket, he defected to Democratic Peoples’ Alliance (DPA) floated by Chief Olu Falae and Afenifere leaders. Since the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) de-registered DPA, Agbaje did not bother join any other party until recently when he formally defected the PDP.

    But, the primary that produced Agbaje as the PDP’s governorship candidate in Lagos was controversial. Senator Musiliu Obanikoro had engaged in a war of words with Agbaje and the leader of PDP in the state, particularly Chief Bode George, over the primary. He had also sued the PDP for not addressing a petition he wrote over the conduct of the primary.

    Through the intervention of the Presidency, the controversy has been resolved. Vice President Namadi Sambo was deployed to hold reconciliation talks and unite the warring factions. Obanikoro said at a press conference addressed by Jimi Agbaje with Sambo in attendance, that he and other aspirants have accepted Agbaje as the PDP governorship candidate. “Despite the inadequacies of our governorship primary, we have agreed today that Agbaje is the PDP governorship candidate in Lagos State,” said Obanikoro.

    Agbaje told reporters that: “This is a defining moment in the life of our party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). For once in the history of PDP in Lagos, we are approaching a common opponent, as one solid, united and powerful force. All the aspirants in the governorship primary of Lagos State have agreed to smoke the peace pipe and gather under one banner. We listened to the voice of Nigerians, Lagosians in particular. They asked us to give and take. Differences, animosities, divergences are hereby declared dead”.

    Now that Agbaje has been accepted by other aspirants, can he break the 16-year old jinx and galvanise the party to victory? Agbaje was optimistic when he said “today a new chapter is being written in the annals of the PDP and by the grace of God in 2015, the PDP will record resounding victory in Lagos.”

    A chieftain of the APC and former Senate Minority leader, Senator Olorunnimbe Mamora has however described the PDP’s hope of winning Lagos State in 2015 as day-dreaming. He said: “Lagos is a strong APC state that has been under its control since 1999. We have seamless continuity from administration of Tinubu to that of Fashola. We have many things to show the people to justify the APC power domination in Lagos State. The emergence of Jimi Agbaje can not jeopardise our hold on to power in the state.”

    Mamora said the wind of change blowing across the country will make it impossible for the PDP to win Lagos in 2015. We are not taking the support of the people for granted. We will work hard for electoral victory. We don’t have any reason to be jittery over Agbaje. He is known to us. We don’t underrate him any way. We will let PDP know that Lagos is no go area.

    “What the APC has done in the past 15 years in the state will make us win in 2015 and beyond. We recognise Jimi Agbaje as a gentle man who is loved by the people but that will not be enough to make him win the governorship election. The candidate’s platform and the antecedents of the political party would determine who wins. Those factors give APC an edge over other political parties contesting governorship election in Lagos State.”

    A chieftain of the PDP in Lagos State, Chief Olufemi Williams said that the party has learnt from its past mistakes and that the stakeholders have resolved to ensure that the PDP goes into the coming election as one united front and not as a divided house. “Having united all the factions, the next thing is for all party members to queue behind our governorship candidate, Jimi Agbaje. He is a sellable candidate that enjoys wide popularity among Lagosians and a match for the APC candidate”.

    To observers, it will be herculean for PDP to unseat the APC in Lagos State. They conceded that Agbaje is a credible candidate and a man of high integrity, but the platform on which he’s contesting may pose a problem. The PDP is not popular in Lagos. President Goodluck Jonathan has neglected Lagos more than any other regime presumably because it is being ruled by the opposition party. All the federal roads in the state are in state of disrepair.

    However, Agbaje is not a pushover. The Afenifere chieftain is a credible politician. He is loved by many people. In 2007, he was one of the aggrieved aspirants who defected from the AD, following the primaries that threw up Mr Babatunde Fashola as the candidate. As candidate of the DPA, he did not make much impact during the election.

    But the Afenifere has ruled out support for Agbaje. Chairman, Lagos State chapter of Afenifere, Chief Supo Shonibare told our correspondent that: “Afenifere in Lagos State is not part of PDP and Mr Jimi Agbaje has not approached Afenifere for support. Afenifere is supporting Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the Southwest and its candidates.

    Lamenting his defection to the PDP, a chieftain of the APC said Agbaje has joined a bad company. He was alive when the PDP was described as nest of killers. He was there when Funsho Williams, the PDP governorship candidate in 2003 was murdered in his bedroom. Can he stand the sight of blood? Can he handle gun? Can he wait when he sees cutlass and broken bottles at campaigns? How would he achieve his political ambition on the platform of the PDP that is unpopular in Lagos?

    Agbaje has changed party platforms two times within seven years. His critics say his “inordinate” ambition is pushing him to join any political party that is ready to offer him its governorship ticket. It portrays him as an inconsistent politician.

    Conscious of this, Agbaje said “PDP is my last bus stop. My back is to the wall. It is forward ever, backward never. Why will I leave the PDP to go where? To me as a politician, such a situation makes no sense”.

    He spoke on his mission to transform Lagos, if elected.  “My mission to serve, to renew and to uplift Lagos State into a true global Centre of Excellence and to transform the lives of residents of Lagos based on my abiding commitment to my city and my state. My mission is to provide people-centred leadership that focuses on transforming the lives of our people,” Agbaje said.

  • Jonathan, Buhari in titanic battle for Aso Rock

    Jonathan, Buhari in titanic battle for Aso Rock

    The stage is set for the February 14 presidential battle between President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Gen. Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI examines the chances of the two candidates

    Winning the February 14 presidential election is not going to be a stroll in the park for President Goodluck Jonathan of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) or Gen. Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for that matter. But, the APC standard bearer seems to enjoying the momentum, going by the good run he and his party is enjoying in the media. This is crucial because when it comes to elections, public perception cannot be waved aside just like that; particularly in this age, with the advancement in the world of information communication technology.

    The PDP, which has been at the helm of affairs at the centre for the past 16 years, had been having it so easy in previous elections, because most of the parties in the opposition were regional-based, weak and fragmented. It was clearly foreseen that with the coming of the APC, which has transformed the country into a two-party state, a competitive contest was in the offing. In fact, it is said that this was the reasoning that propelled the move to form the APC, immediately after the 2011 elections.

    The ruling PDP saw it coming. But, since old habits die hard, it could not turn a new leaf overnight. In that regard, the APC has been more proactive. Internal democracy has been a major problem for most Nigerian political parties. But, the APC has demonstrated a willingness for change in this respect with the manner it conducted its recent presidential prmary, where Buhari was picked as the party’s flag bearer. The opposition party has sent a strong signal to the ruling party with its decision to conduct the primary, even though it was clear to everyone that Buhari is the best man for the job, compared to the other aspirants. In the same vein, many observers believe that, as a sitting President, Jonathan would have equally picked up the party’s presidential ticket, if the party had allowed a free and fair election to take place. The clear message is that, for the first time since 2003, the PDP is facing a genuine challenge of being defeated at the polls.

    Jonathan’s tough re-election battle

     Indeed, Jonathan faces a tough re-election battle. He appears to be confronted with a crisis of credibility. Analysts say he came with a lot of promise, but seems to have disappointed a lot of Nigerians who voted for him in 2011. Such Nigerians say the President has squandered the opportunity handed to him because one of his campaign messages of having no shoes as a young man moved them and they felt they could trust someone who comes from within their ranks. The underdog factor also worked in his favour when he was contesting the 2011 election, following the way the cabal in the late Umaru Yar’Adua’s administration tried to prevent him from taking over power, even though it was obvious that his principal was incapacitated.

    Being an incumbent comes with the benefits and advantages of having something to showcase. It provides an opportunity to make more promises of a better tomorrow. Yet, the same incumbency factor opens the occupant of the office to a lot of criticisms about errors committed, things left undone or things that could have been done better. The perception of the public is that President Jonathan has performed below par. He would not have found himself in a situation where he would be struggling for his re-election had he delivered on key promises. The President’s team is not doing much to improve his poor public perception.

    The APC has been exploiting this, by not giving him a breathing space; the party has stayed on the message all the time. The refrain of APC is that the PDP has run the country aground. It regularly cites the brazen corruption, the widespread insecurity and the worsening insurgency in the Northeast as reasons why Nigerians should vote for change.

    It is not as if the mild-mannered Jonathan does not have achievements to flaunt. But, against the mountain of expectations, the general perception is that Jonathan, 56, has performed below par. In August 2012, Jonathan claimed he was the world’s most criticised president. This prompted him to vow to become the most praised before he leaves office.

    With the changing political landscape in the country, which has whittled down the enormous advantages hitherto enjoyed by the ruling party, it is clear that the era of impunity is over. For instance, since 2003, the PDP was been able to win successive presidential elections easily because it had control over majority of Nigeria’s 36 states. As at the time the 2011 was conducted, the PDP was at the helm of affairs in 27 states. Today, it controls only 21 states. But, it can rely on the support of the Governor of Anambra State, which is a member of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), one of the smaller parties that regularly back the PDP. The APC, on the other hand, controls 14 states.

    Buhari riding on wave of popularity

    But, Buhari’s performance in 2011, where he garnered over 12.2 million votes, has shown that incumbency advantage and control of the states by a particular party is limited by local factors such as the popularity of the candidate.. For instance, in 2011, the President could not win in 12 Northern states. Nine of the 12 states are PDP states, which voted for the ruling party during the governorship election, but opted for Buhari in the presidential election. This is in spite of the fact that Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) was less than four months old and was not in control of any state. Buhari as a candidate has never lost elections in states like Gombe, Kebbi, Niger, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna which are PDP-controlled states. Jonathan was however able to secure more than the 25 per cent of votes threshold in all but four Northern states. Interestingly, two of the four states were PDP-controlled.

    Buhari’s major challenge in 2011 was the southern part of the country. In 2015, he can count on securing substantial votes from the Southwest, Rivers and Edo in the Southsouth and possibly Imo and Anambra in the Southeast.

    Unlike the 2011 election, Jonathan is not going to enjoy the backing of voters from the four corners of the country. For instance, there are reports that members of his party in some parts of the North are afraid to openly identify with him as the party’s standard bearer in the election and are turning down offers to play a leading role in his campaign. With less than six weeks to the election, the campaign posters of the PDP flag bearer on the streets of major cities in the region, which are considered crucial for his re-election victory, are few and far between. This contrasts sharply with the situation four years ago, when promotional materials for Jonathan had sprung up in virtually all the northern states many months to the D-day.

    A number of reasons have been adduced for this. A source ascribed it to the prevalent mood of the people, following the emergence of General Buhari as the APC flag bearer. Another is the fear of being labelled as anti-North. The voice of Buhari’s massive supporters appears to be drowning those of Jonathan in the zone. “The feeling here is that Buhari and the APC represent the best opportunity for power to return to the region and as such all northerners should line up behind the General and his party. Even in states where PDP is in power, the party’s chieftains are cautious about preaching Jonathan’s reelection so as not to offend the sensibilities of their people,” another source said.

    Not yet uhuru for APC

    But, it is not yet uhuru for the APC; the PDP equally has the wherewithal of staging a comeback. As a sitting President, the odds are stacked in his favour. This includes a huge financial resource base of N21 billion and the utilisation of governance machinery, propaganda and coercive apparatuses. No civilian president has lost a re-election bid in Nigeria’s political history. Jonathan may not be an exception.

    Gen. Buhari has been described as a friend of the “masses’ and a nemesis for the elite. Indeed, the controversial N21 billion donations for Jonathan’s re-election by some of Nigeria’s moneybags suggests that the elite are not favourably inclined to a Buhari Presidency. A former military head of state, Buhari, aged 72, is widely regarded as honest and incorruptible. In fact, he remains a folk hero to many Nigerians because of his vocal opposition to corruption. But, the former Head of State has failed in three previous presidential elections in 2003, 2007 and 2011.

    Beside the fear of the elite that he may likely crackdown on corruption and waste in government, his major baggage is the perception that he is a religious fundamentalist and northern irredentist. However, there is no concrete evidence to prove that these perceptions are true. Many have also raised the issue of Buhari’s age, saying he may not be able to function optimally as President of Nigeria. But, the age factor is neither here, nor their, because Buhari looks fit and rearing to go. Buahari has picked Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, a Christian from the Southwest as his running mate.

    The President’s chances are going to be determined by how well he is able to perform in the North and the Southwest. From all indications, Jonathan’s candidacy has lost the voters confidence in the Southwest. Nevertheless, the recent elections in Ekiti and Osun suggest that the ruling party may spring a surprise in the Southwest.

    The North is undoubtedly the stronghold of Gen. Buhari. He enjoys a cult following in that part of the country, including some states governed by the PDP. Since the core North is yearning to get back to power, Buhari is likely to have a smooth ride in the Northwest and Northeast, while much of the Northcentral may be more inclined to give Jonathan a second chance. President Jonathan’s running mate, Namadi Sambo, is from Kaduna, in the Northwest.

    According to some observers, the choice that would confront the electorates in the February 14 presidential election is a difficult one. One of the observers puts it this way: “The Nigerian electorate faces a dilemma between the shambolic that is known and the uncertainty that is to come.” There is a plethora of reasons why some people would feel disappointed at the turn of events regarding the Jonathan presidency; just as those seeking change by rooting for Buhari may be heading into the sphere of the unknown.

  • APC and 2015 battle

    APC and 2015 battle

    The All Progressives Congress (APC) has achieved a major breakthrough, following the success of its maiden presidential primaries. Will the party sustain the tempo? EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the obstacles it has overcome, its prospects at the polls and challenges on its way to 2015.

    PDP’s failed prediction

    When the legacy parties mooted the idea of a mega party, the ruling party described it as a joke. Olisa Metuh, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) National Publicity Secretary predicted doom for the opposition. He said the proposed fusion would hit the rock, owing to the protracted differences among their leaders. Others expressed the same feeling, saying that the “gang-up” would collapse like a pack of cards. So far, the prediction has not come to fulfillment.

    To the consternation of the PDP leadership, the APC held a free, fair, peaceful and successful presidential primaries at the Teslim Balogun Stadium, Lagos last week. With the emergence of Gen. Muhammadu Buhari as its flag bearer, the state is set for an epic battle between the opposition party and the PDP, on which platform President Goodluck Jonathan is seeking re-election.

     

    Post-convention challenges

    Despite the success, many APC chieftains acknowledged that the party has to overcome three hurdles. The first is the challenge of picking a running mate from any of the Southern states. Another is the challenge of reconciliation among chieftains at the state level, who are aggrieved over the outcome of governorship and parliamentary primaries. The third is the challenge of sustaining the tempo till next year’s elections.

    But, former Gombe State Governor Danjuma Goje spoke on the greatest hurdle for the party. Urging the party faithful to gird their loins, he said power shift is only possible when there is free and fair elections. He said: “The APC is determined to take over the governance of our country. Our member should be battle ready. They should not be intimidated and cowed. We must be courageous to defend our votes like the people of Osun. What the people of Osun did should be replicated. People are yearning for change. They are fed up with poverty, insurgency and everything about the PDP. We must police the votes.”

     

    Thorny road to primaries

    The road to the presidential primaries was laced with difficulties. But, the party leaders made sacrifices. When the merger of the parties was being consummated, many were skeptic. In Nigeria, opposition alliances have never seen the light of the day. The reason is that their leaders have always elevated personal agenda above the national interest.

    However, the birth of the All Progressives Congress (APC) marked a clean break from the past. The leaders of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (APC), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) agreed to fuse into a strong progressive platform. Later, aggrieved Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governors and chieftains joined the fold. The ANPP Chairman, Chief Ogbonnaya Onu, his CPC and ACN counterparts-Prince Tony Momoh and Chief Bisi Akande- surrendered  their leadership of the parties.

     

    Litmus test

    The first test was the adoption of the name, logo, symbol and constitution. Up came a rival political association, which claimed that the APC stole its logo. But, the party survived the registration hurdle and forged ahead to enlarge its coast. There were minor disagreements when the interim leadership was set up. But, many chieftains showed understanding.

    But, a big crisis trailed the maiden national convention of the APC in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Three chieftains-Chief Tom Ikimi, Chief Timpreye Sylva and Chief John Odigie-Oyegun-vied for the national chairmanship. The odd favoured the former Edo State governor. Ikimi was bitter. He complained that he was marginalised and edged out of the contest. He defected to the PDP. His defection did not affect the party.

    Shortly before the convention, the defection of PDP governors created new challenges. The governors of Sokoto, Kano and Kwara states became the automatic leaders of the party in their respective states. Old rivalries were resumed. Alhaji Attahiru Bafarawa, who had scores to settle with Governor Aliyu Wamakko, could not accept the governor’s leadership. In protest, he hurried left the party for the PDP, claiming that he was not carried along during the negotiation with the governor.

    In kano, former Governor Ibrahim Shekarau, who had scores to settle with Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, also rejected his leadership. He also defected to the PDP. In Kwara, former APC leader Dele Belgore (SAN) said he could not work with Senator Bukola Saraki. He too defected to the PDP.  For a different reason, the governor of Borno State, Senator Modu Sheriff, left the APC for the PDP.

    But, the APC continued to wax stronger. Although it lost the governorship election in Ekiti State in controversial circumstance, the party fought to retain Osun State. It has also enlarged its coast in Enugu, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, and Rivers State.

    Ahead of the presidential primaries, there were other challenges that confronted the party. Some people canvassed consensus, saying that a shadow poll could unleash post-primary crisis. But, the party settled for democratic primaries, which it conducted successfully.

    A committee was set up to pave the way for a credible selection process. It was led by Chief Ogbonnaya Onu. The former Abia State governor, who reflected on the activities of the committee, reported to the delegates at the convention that the APC is lucky to have seasoned politicians as presidential aspirants. He said they were ready to make sacrifice. In fact, the five aspirants-Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Kwankwaso, Owelle Rochas Okorocha signed an undertaking to abide by the outcome of the primaries, whether they win or lose.

    There was also controversy over the choice of venue. Some people raised an eyebrow when  Lagos was chosen as the venue. They thought that the national assignment should hold in abuja, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). But, the National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, doused the tension when he explained that the APC could not hold the exercise in Abuja because it had earlier postponed it. When it was postponed, the PDP also rented the same venue. Since the PDP may hold its own primaries barely two days after, it could disturb the preparations by the ruling party. So, the arrangement for the Eagle Square was cancelled.

    Another controversy revolved around the composition of delegates. According to the guidelines, only elected council functionaries could participate as statutory delegates. But, in some states, elected council chairmen and councillors are not in place. To avoid trouble, the constitution was followed. The  caretaker committee chairmen and former council chairmen were not included in the list as statutory delegates.

    Reflecting on how the party passed the litmus test, Odigie-Oyegun said the party has made history. He thanked the aspirants and other party leaders for making it possible. He said: “You have made history. Our enemies predicted all manners of doom. Who is going to be doomed now? The aspirants are gallant contestants. In my almost 30 years of politics, I have not seen a wonderful thing like this.”

     

    Tinubu’s admonition

    At the convention, there was no error of judgment. Ahead of the shadow pill, the National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, sent a twitter message to delegates, urging them to vote wisely. He said: “Make this APC convention one that will be forever remembered at the moment Nigeria turned from failure to move forward its finest destiny. You came, not just as party members from your particular states or communities. You came here as representatives of a new Nigeria. We cannot afford th squander this moment.”

    Tinubu added: “A special energy is in the air.. We have attended party conventions before, but this is different. We are in a period of compound crises. We are here to pick a candidate that will rescue Nigeria. The voice of change is unique and inspiring. This voice will lead us to victory. It is the voice of the people in the cities, towns and on the farms. It is the voice of the young and the old in the North, South; the voice of Christians and Muslims. It is about the future.

    “In this convention, the history of our nation is to be re-written. Giving the challenges facing our county and that our party represents the last chance to avert national failure, we cannot afford to bungle the opportunity. We must rise over personal and parochial interest. The convention will demonstrate that only the APC has shown the capacity to govern the country in the spirit of democracy because it is the party of the time. The APC is the cure. Help is on the way. No more despair. The APC has better manifestos. If we choose well, we will hear the trumpet of victory. Nigeria will change for better. Enough of broken promises.

     

    Clamour for chamge

    The Planning Committee Chairman, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, said the maiden presidential primaries was organised to showcase the difference between the APC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).  He described the APC as the product of the first successful merger of opposition parties in the country, adding that it is the first time opposition politicians will fight for federal power at the centre under a united platform. The former Ekiti State governor noted that the five aspirants are fit to rule Nigeria, adding that, apart from their competence, they have demonstrated a high degree of loyalty and commitment free and fair primaries.

    Noting that the shadow election is a major step towards next year’s elections. he said: “We will move forward from this event to fulfill all other formalities and commence an issue-based campaign of progressive and agenda-setting critiques aimed at reducing our land and its people. We will address the moral deficit that has led us to the breakdown of our value system, causing hydra-headed symptoms such as corruption, crass incompetence and ethno-religious bigotry. ‘These maladies have kept our nation under-developed, in spite of our vast resources. We shall reach out to the critical mass of people who believe change is possible. We will move on from here to win the presidential election in 2015.”

    The host governor, Babatunde Fashola (SAN), charged the delegates to vote for the best man for the job, warning against the consequence of missing the opportunity to make the right choice. He said the Jonathan Administration has broken its promises to Nigeria, advising the people to replace the dysfunctional government with a functional administration in 2015.

    Oyegun, who described the contest as a historic event, shed light on the party’s manifestos, which encompasses security, good governance, human capital development, social security for the aged, commitment to credible elections and a robust foreign policy. The former Edo State governor said any of the aspirants, who may emerge as the flag bearer, is ready to implement them, if the party wins next year’s elections.

    Oyegun added: “Nigeria has suffered a ruinous mismanagement under the PDP. Nigerians are fed up with the PDP and look up to the APC for a new Nigeria of our dream. Change is imminent. I and you can see it and feel it. The five aspirants are competent, But, all of them have resolved to provide the leadership needed by the country.”

    The national chairman congratulated the aspirants, urging them to go into the contest, where only one will be elected, but all of them would be winners. He added: ‘They are winners because they have resolved to support the winner morally and financially. To revive Nigeria, every one of us must be on board. They are winners because they live Nigeria and the party more than their individual aspirations.”

    Urging delegates to vote with a sense of responsibility, he added: “Vote in accordance with your consent, knowing that the votes you cast will change the future of Nigeria, your future and the future of the unborn generation. The PDP has no agenda for Nigeria beyond prolonging its bad rule.

    Test for two-party system:

    Elder statesman Onu said: “History is being made in our great country. For 16 years, only one party has been ruling us. The problem they inherited, they have not resolved them. Nigeria has been suffering. The time for change has come. The APC is the vehicle for that change.  With the APC in government, we will secure our country. The six largest producer of oil is importing petroleum resources.

    “The difference between the APC and the PDP is the difference between life and death.. Nigeria has to make a choice. The time to make a choice has come. The APC controls 14 states, including the two populous states of Kano and Lagos. The PDP is presenting just a candidate. But, in the APC, we believe in the constitution of Nigeria that whosoever believes in contesting for the Presidency should be given the opportunity. As the Chairman of the Presidential Election Committee, I can assure you that the five aspirants are competent people.”

     

    APC and the future

    House of Representatives Speaker Hon. Aminu Tambuwal, whose entry into the venue was hailed by delegates, said: ‘We are set to make history. I thanked the legacy parties for their sacrifices. We are presenting to Nigerians the most credible alternative ti what we have in Abuja. The APC is the party for today, the party for tomorrow and the party for the future. I call on Nigerians to vote out the incompetent and malfunctioning administration that we have in Abuja. today. It is desirable to have a Nigeria we can call our own.

    ‘Some parts of the country are being taken over by the Biko Haram. The APC will arrest the situation immediately we come to office. The greatest challenge before us after the primaries is to win the presidential election. I urge Nigerians to support  the APC candidate. We must salvage our democracy and our nation.

    Ogbeh, who welcomed Gemade, his political foe in Benue State, to the event, said the delegates are the taproots of democracy in a party that promotes robust debate and dissent. He queried: “Who among us is so blind that cannot see disaster coming? who is dumb and cannot hear the sounds of bombings. Who is sick in mind that cannot see the crisis of the youth unemployment, the lack of hope and the lack of accommodation? “

    He added: “We have become a sad, miserable country. Economic policies have closed the door to growth.  We have become a sad, miserable country of importers of tomatoes, pencils and erasers, and toothpicks. Oil is now at 65 per barrel. It is because of the desire to halt these that you are here. Don’t be influenced by anything, except your conscience. pray before voting and vote wisely. Be prepared for change to come.”

    APC Women leader Hajia Ramatu said: “We are here to show that we believe in one man one vote. Before we cast our votes, we must reflect on the future of our country and the challenges we face. Our choice today will determine the fate of the APC. Remember the future of yourchildren before you cast your votes. we desire a better life.”

    Former Vice President Abubakar highlighted the challenges confronting the country. He said: “Nigerias want change because they are fed up with the PDP government; a regime of insecurity; they are tired of unemployment. We are paying for electricity and getting darkness and killing industries. They are tired the PDP mathematic where 16 is greater than 18 and seven is greater than 18. They are tired of the abuse of power; tired of the siege on the parliament and the tear gassing the Speaker. They are tired of the humiliation of the police and the army that has won laurels in the past and now a huge joke  in the beer parlour. They are tired of bad roads, collapsed school system and failure in examinations. I  pray that you will give me the opportunity to lead our party to lead the change.”

     

     Buhari’s promise

    Buhari presented a humble mien, castigating the tendency to monetise the exercise. The former military Head of State said that he had no dollar to share to delegates. The crowd applauded his frankness and sincerity as they clapped for him. Many people delegates believe that, if he wins, he will run a transparent government that will re-invigorate the anti-graft war.

    Urging delegates to vote for a man of integrity, he said: “Change and the hope of Nigerians are with you. We seek a new Nigeria. I place myself before you to elect me as your standard bearer. Personal ambition does not drive me. I have much to offer in this time of multiple crises. I am ready to lead Nigeria. I do not have any dollar to give to you to get your votes. The position is not for sale. If i have the dollar, I will not offer it to you.

    Burahi chided the Federal Government for creating more problems for Nigeria. He said: “Instead of ending problems, the PDP is multiplying the problems. I have led our nation  before. To solve our problem, we need a leader who has integrity, strength and abiding commitment to change.  I have always tried to place myself to the service of Nigeria. I rely on my army pensions. I have no company that benefits from the government. I am a simple man who wants to serve Nigeria.

    “I want to fight corruption. This is not a time for continuity. Failure and incompetence do not deserve continuity, but change. I will honestly govern Nigeria in accordance with the constitution and the rule of law. I will promote tolerance among the ethnic and religious divides. I will have a good foreign policy. I will select the best Nigerians to serve in my government.”

    Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso was hailed by members of his group, the kwankwasinya as he mounted the rostrum. He described himself as an experienced politician, recalling that he was a civil servant in Kano State for 17 years, member of the House of Representatives and Deputy Speaker, delegate to the 1994 Constitution Conference, Minister of Defence, Special Envoy to Dafur and performer in office.

    The governor, who promised to replicate his achievements in education, health care, and rural development, said he will restore security and fight corruption, if elected as the President.

    Nda-Isaiah said: “The APC has a divine responsibility to win the next presidential election to rescue our country. To win, we must go to the contest with our best. Nigeria needs a fresh face to lead it to change..”

    Firing salvos at the Federal Government, Imo State Governor Rochas Okorocha said: “There is nothing wrong with the Head of State. But, something is wrong with the state of the head. Political power can only be justified when it is used for the welfare of the common man.”

  • Lafia: A week after the ‘battle’

    Lafia: A week after the ‘battle’

    Following the recent disturbances in Lafia, the Nasarawa State capital, and the rumoured death of the spiritual leader of the Ombatse group, Baba Alakyo, Assistant Editor, BLESSING OLAIFA, undertook a visit to the North Central state to unravel the reasons behind the unending crises.

    AFTER a long period of upheaval, peace appeared to have returned to Lafia, the capital of Nasarawa State, when our correspondent visited recently. Business activities in the state capital were running in full swing. Jos Road and Makurdi Road were their busy selves as shops, offices and motor parks were actively in business.

    The foregoing was in total contrast to the situation in the state a week earlier when the streets were deserted and security operatives barricaded the roads and mounted surveillance to restore order. Life was literally put on suspension in the city as schools were shut and residents remained indoors until the riotous situation was brought under control.

    Even on this day, one could still feel the hangover of the violence that had engulfed the state a week earlier. The response our reporter got from taxi drivers and commercial motorcycle operators at the Central Bank of Nigeria Motor Park when he asked to be taken to Alakyo village only brought back the memory of the previous week. They wasted no time to say no.

    Not even the request for ‘drop’ (a term used by a commuter to indicate that he or she should be taken alone) would entice the taxi drivers. A taxi driver, who sympathised with the reporter’s predicament, had called a motorbike operator and asked whether the young man hailed from Eggon community so that he could take the reporter to Alakyo. Eggon is the most dominant ethnic group in Alakyo, and the spiritual leader of the Ombatse group, Baba Alakyo, lives in the community. The motorbike operator said he was not even an indigene of Nasarawa State.

    Alakyo is the village where about 73 security operatives, mostly policemen and DSS agents, were reported to have been ambushed and killed on May 7, 2013, allegedly by the Ombatse militia group. The village was reported to have been invaded by yet to be identified Fulani group alongside other Eggon communities of Fadaman, Baung and Akura on Novermber 16. The invasion sparked off reprisal attacks that spread to Lafia and its environs the following week, forcing the state government to impose a curfew and restrict movements.

    Incidentally, Governor Umaru Tanko Al-Makura had staged a peace walk within the state capital two days before the disturbance to mark his 62nd birthday. Al-Makura who was joined by residents during the peace walk, particularly motorbike riders and youths, later addressed the crowd, urging them to live peacefully with one another.

    It was gathered that the raid on the village left scores of people dead, while properties were also destroyed. Amidst the crisis, it was rumoured that Baba Alakyo, whose real name was given as Lega Agu, had been killed during the invasion. Another version even added that the village head of Alakyo was also killed. The development, according to findings, triggered what looked like a reprisal attack against those perceived to have had hands in the invasion of Alakyo.

    But before then, there was information from Barrister Zachary Zamani Allumaga, the legal adviser to the Ombatse group, that Baba Alakyo was alive, hale and hearty after all. Allummaga described those who peddled the rumour as “people who don’t mean well for peace in the area.”

    The development somehow eased tension even though the Ombatse group had been proscribed by the government. The Nation leant from local Eggon people that Baba Alakyo is well respected and the activities of his group were largely misread or misrepresented. Hussaini Mohammed, the state Secretary of Miyetti Allah, a Fulani socio-cultural organisation, denied, however, that the Fulani were responsible for the invasion of Alakyo.

    A highly placed security source in Lafia confirmed to The Nation that Baba Alakyo was alive and well and would speak on the invasion of his village at the appropriate time. The source said Baba Alakyo was not affected by the invasion of the village on November 16. He maintained that from the evidence available, the spiritual leader of the Ombatse group was yet alive.

    The Nation investigation revealed that inter-ethnic crises in Nasarawa State are rooted in a number of factors, including political and economic dominance, religious intolerance, marginalisation, unemployment, quest for self-expression, indigene/settler dichotomy, prolonged neglect of the people by successive administrations, poverty, lack of access to quality education, inequality and injustice.

    Barrister Uchea Guwa, a Lafia-based lawyer, blamed the situation on lack of focus by governments across the nation. He said immediately after Nigeria’s independence, those who took over the leadership of the country embarked on competitive development efforts at the regional levels. This competition, he said, worked because the government had focus and the administrations were people-oriented. But after the collapse of the First Republic, successive governments, according to him, changed focus.

    He said Nigeria, from the outset, was made up of people from different ethnic groups and religion, yet people lived peacefully together. He said the situation has been made worse by politicians who feel that once they have the reins of power, their attention should be focused on their immediate family, friends and how to win the next election.

    He said for the states and the country to work for everybody, education should be the focus, while equal opportunities should be created for all Nigerians irrespective of their ethnic or religious backgrounds.

    According to him, to solve the problem, government should care for the needs of the average citizen, especially in the areas of security of lives and property, secured environment, good health facilities and good homes. He insisted that once government places emphasis on this, people would naturally live in peace with one another. Guwa added that lack of opportunities, particularly for the youth, were the reasons why they were available for unrest, riots and robbery.

    Similarly, the Nasarawa State coordinator of Justice and Human Empowerment Centre, Christopher Aku, said the NGO had been involved in various advocacy programmes to advance the socio-economic development of the people, especially the youth and the downtrodden. Aku said the violence in Nasarawa State was a huge setback for the people as it created an air of suspicion and mistrust among the people.

    Aku canvassed for massive enlightenment campaigns to re-orientate the youth, insisting that government should also embark on ventures that would heal wounds and build confidence among the population. He frowned at a situation where politicians engaged the youth only for political rallies. He said politicians should instead empower the youths and involve them in productive activities rather than use them for selfish ends.

    Aku expressed fears that the disturbances in Nasarawa State might lead to a situation where residents would travel home for Christmas and refuse to return until after the 2015 elections. He said government and the security agencies should do more in this regard by building confidence in the people and reassuring them of their safety and security in the state.

    One of the state’s opinion leaders, Mallam Idris Ishaku Mohammed, told The Nation in Lafia that people had been living peacefully together until the advent of democracy brought a lot of sentiment, hatred and religious intolerance to the table. Mohammed said the state government should, in addition to the ongoing peace efforts, implement the report of the panels that sat on some of the crises that engulfed the state in the past.

    He said besides, the political elite should give peace a chance by cooperating with the government of the day. According to him, Governor Tanko Al-Makura had indicated interest in working with traditional institutions, religious leaders and leaders of thought across the length and breadth of the state; it is imperative therefore for the elite to support him.

    Meanwhile, in addressing the security challenges facing Nasarawa State, the state police command said all security agencies were being mobilised to tackle the problem. The Command spokesperson, Ugochukwu Theodore (DSP), said for now, surveillance was being carried out at strategic locations and flashpoints across the state. He added that security personnel had been instructed to conduct stop and search on vehicles and persons with a view to checking illegal possession of weapons and dangerous arms. He said they are also to enforce the 6 am to 6 pm restriction on movements.

    He said there was no need for people to panic ahead of the 2015 elections because adequate arrangement had been made by security agencies to nip in the bud any act of disturbance. Theodore said the command is currently interrogating those arrested in respect of the recent upheaval in the state, while a full scale investigation had been launched to unravel those behind the crisis.

    He said those involved would be charged to court once investigation was concluded.

    Governor Umaru Al-Makura’s media aide, Yakubu Lamai, told The Nation that prior to the crisis, the governor had undertaken series of meetings with stakeholders across the state. He explained that the governor initiated multi-faceted approaches to nip in the bud any form of unrest in the state be they political, economic, socio-cultural or religion.

    Lamai said the complex nature of conflicts in contemporary world also means that government’s approach in resolving them or stopping them from happening at all has to be pragmatic and dynamic. Government, he added, was well aware of the challenges and no stone would be left unturned to minimise conflicts and disturbances in the state. Lamai said peace and harmonious coexistence among the various ethnic groups in the state remain sine qua non to the development of Nasarawa State.

    He enjoined the people to show love and understanding towards one another, noting that the government would always appreciate their cooperation.

  • Mimiko’s battle for relevance

    Mimiko’s battle for relevance

    The defection of Ondo State Governor Olusegun Mimiko and other Labour Party (LP) members to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is generating controversy. Correspondent DAMISI OJO examines the implications of the defection for the PDP, the LP and the All Progressives Congress (APC) in next year’s elections.

    The defection of Governor Olusegun Mimiko and other Labour Party (LP) members to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), four months to next year’s presidential elections, did not come as a surprise to many observers.

    After nurturing the LP for eight years, Mimiko is contemplating life after the Ondo State Government House. Nevertheless, his decision took many of his aides and supporters by surprise, particularly those were banking on the LP for next year’s elections. They thought that Mimiko had given up the idea of dumping the party he built. They had reasoned that, if such was going to happen, it would be after the election.

    But, during his meeting with some leaders of the LP across the 18 local government areas  and members of his cabinet, Mimiko  said he has held consultations with the PDP leadership at the national level.

    The governor said he decided in the interest of the LP to dissolve the party into the more dominant PDP, ahead of the  general elections. Observers say it was particularly because of his interest in the re-election of President Goodluck Jonathan than that of the LP.

    The PDP, after losing the last governorship election, appealed to Mimiko to reconsider his stand.  Sources said a negotiation was opened with the governor to ensure a hitch-free defection to the ruling party before the elections. In fact, Mimiko had earlier collapsed his political structure, the Iroko Frontiers, into a pro-Jonathan group, “Believe Nigeria, Trust Goodluck,” as part of his moves to work towards the re-election of the President.

    But, not satisfied with this, the Presidency asked the governor to move into the PDP to consolidate  Dr. Jonathan’s re-election bid. Part of the strategy is also to make Mimiko the PDP’s point man in the Southwest to tackle the All Progressives Party (APC) in the zone.

    Others, however, insist that Mimiko is dumping the LP for the PDP because his party is no longing enjoying the huge support it had at the grassroots.

    There concerns in the LP over next year’s general election, with the opposition parties vowing to win more seats in the House of Assembly elections, a development which would put Mimiko in a very tight corner as his second term tenure runs beyond 2015.

    The time-table for next year’s general election released by the electoral body has put Mimiko in a fix.  The fact that the Presidential and National Assembly elections would hold same day on February 14, 2015 means voters may find it difficult to separate the Presidential ballots from the National Assembly ballots.

    This would have given advantage to the PDP candidates vying for National Assembly seats. This would have in turn affected the House of Assembly election too. That was what happened in 2003, when the Alliance for Democracy (AD) tacitly backed Obasanjo’s re-election bid and ended up losing to the PDP in the other elections; thus allowing the PDP to make an in-road into the Southwest..

    But, with Mimiko’s defection to the PDP, he would be able to avoid the humiliation of seeing his party lose ground to the more dominant party because of his support for Jonathan’s re-election bid.

    However, the spiral effects of Mimiko’s defection would haunt both the PDP and the LP as their preparations for next year’s election get into top gear.

    Already, there is palpable tension among aspirants for various elective offices in both parties. It is not clear how the interests of the aspirants of the two parties would be managed without rancour.

    Speculations are rife that the governor has entered into a sharing agreement with the national leadership of the PDP on how to share elective and appointive positions.

    There is also the belief that the governor would soon dissolve his cabinet, caretaker committees of the 18 local government areas , boards and parastatals to accommodate people from  the PDP. It is however, not clear, if this would be before the primaries of the party sometime this month or much later.

    The status of the members of the House of Assembly and National Assembly, who are members of the LP, is not certain in the PDP. The LP has 25 out of 26 members of the House of Assembly, seven out of eight members of the House of Representatives and two out of three senators from the state. It is not clear if all of them would follow the governor to the PDP. If this happens, the PDP would now have 100 per cent membership of the Assembly.Nevertheless, the PDP Deputy National Publicity Secretary, Mr.  Abdullahi Jalo described Mimiko’s defection as “one of the fruits of the reconciliatory efforts embarked upon by the party’s National  Chairman, Alhaji Adamu Muazu.

    Jalo said: “It is cheery news because we are expecting, not only Governor Mimiko, but all other genuinely progressive governors to join us in the task of nation building.”

    Mimiko had denied the speculations that he would join the PDP at the initial stage. Speaking shortly after the National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting of the LP in Abuja last year, he said he would not abandon the LP for the PDP, stressing that he remained committed to the ideals of the LP.

    His words: “We will never abandon the party, but will tag along with its leadership in all things to see that our party remains relevant in taking our country to its destination.

    “We are irrevocably committed to the true ideal of progressive politics, which the party truly represents. We are therefore going to be guided into any political alliance that would afford us the opportunity to realise these ideals.

    One of the PDP leaders and former governorship candidate, Chief Olusola Oke, said the coming of Mimiko would further boost the chances of the party in returning into power.

    The LP took over Ondo by storm, by winning the 2007 governorship election. But, the PDP was declared winner of the contest. It took a rigorous legal battle for Mimiko to regain the mandate. Since then, the LP became the toast of the town, with a massive popularity at the grassroots. The popular slogan then was: “Labour Party, Forward Ever, Backward Never, Iroko Gbasibe”.

    Mimiko was a Minister  Commissioner  and  Secretary to the State Government (SSG) under late Agagu. Mimiko dynamic politician had mapped out his strategies to create a new political forum to actualise his long time dream of ruling the state. Then, Mimiko did everything to weaken the PDP.

    Without doubt,  former Governor,  Agagu would be troubled, if he were to get wind of the defection of Mimiko to the PDP. If the Oluomo of Ikale land is to alive, it would have not been too smooth for the governor to retrace his step back to the party he vehemently forced out of power in February 2009, after 22 months of rigorous legal battle at the election tribunal and Appeal Court.

    In fact, the chairman of the PDP and  the  deputy governor, Alhaji Ali Olanusi and the former Secretary and the senator representing Ondo Central Senatorial District,  Boluwaji Kunlere, dumped the party for  the LP.

    However, the APC has urged Mimiko and the other political office holders elected on the platform of the LP to resign from their offices, following their defection to the PDP.

    A lawyer and chieftain of the party, Charles Titiloye, chided Mimiko for taking the mandate of Ondo State people given to LP to PDP without the consent of the electorates.

    He said: “For long, we know that the governor was using the LP platform to deceive the progressive-minded people of the state that he loves the masses, when in fact Governor Mimiko and all his Chieftains are members of the conservative PDP.

    “Finally, the Governor has gone back to PDP carrying along his dwindling public credibility to his natural base.”

    Titiloye urged the LP to wind up its operation, saying the “middle men” in the APGA should also defect to enable the masses decide between the PDP and the APC in 2015.

    The APC chieftain called on progressives in the LP to retrace their steps and refuse to follow Mimiko to the PDP. He said the APC  is ready to recive decampees from the LP and the PDP, who are uncomfortable with Mimiko’s defection to the PDP.

    The APC  chairman, Isaac Kekemeke, said this is harvest time for the APC , adding that the party will enlarge its coast. He said that the aggressive mobilisation of members has started across the the state, urging the people to join the progressive train.

  • 2015: Battle for Abia Government House

    2015: Battle for Abia Government House

    No fewer than 10 Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship aspirants are warming up for  primaries in Abia State. Governor Theodore Orji is pushing for power shift to Ukwa Ngwa, Abia South Senatorial District. But, some stakeholders are calling for a level-playing field for contenders. Who becomes the flag bearer? Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the scramble for power in the Southeast state.  

    The succession battle started last year. At the ceremony marking the 22nd anniversary of the creation of Abia State, Governor Theodore Orji reflected on  governance and peoples’ expectations. He told stakeholders in Umuahia, the state capital, that the next governor would inherit some challenges.  He highlighted some of the virtues expected of his successor.

    Orji said the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate would be a credible politician worthy of peoples’ vote. The governor said he would not impose any aspirant. He was also emphatic that he would not permit any imposition by any stakeholder.

    Few weeks ago, the governor maintained that his views had not changed. When critics alleged that he had already anointed a candidate, he dispelled the rumour. In a statement by his Chief Press Secretary, Mr. Charles Ajunwa, the governor said  the candidate would emerge in a democratic primaries. Orji said no aspirant would be excluded from the process, adding that the state would not be under any family domination and idol worship.

    “There was a time in the history of Abia State that nobody could become an ordinary councilor without worshiping an idol. After worshiping an idol, you then worship an individual and his family. Abia people may not have known what I did for them; my major achievement is the liberation of Abia State from idol worship and family domination,” he stressed.

    However, the governor said the ruling party will adopt zoning for next year’s poll. This statement has implications for the contest. In fact, it has polarised the state into pro-zoning and anti-zoning forces.

    In the last one month, the contest has assumed a new dimension. Aspirants have embarked on last minute consultations with stakeholders across the 17 councils areas. Some of them have been endorsed by various individuals and groups. Keen watchers of the Abia politics have described the state as a potential flashpoint, owing to the interplay of forces.

    Sources said former Governor Orji Kalu and his supporters are challenging the governor to a duel. There is a plot to weaken him, ahead of the exercise. But, the governor is also gathering supporters to resist the onslaught. The entire South District is backing the governor, following his support for the rotational principle.

    Haling the adoption of zoning, the leader of the Abia Democratic Movement, Prince Sonny Aku, said: “Let no none take Abia for granted. Power must shift and the next governor must come from Ukwa Ngwa.

    “Those who had rule the state cannot come back through the back door through their crony. It will not work. The governor must not be disturbed or distracted. He must complete all his projects and be allowed to hand over to an Ukwa Ngua man. We will not sit down and fold our arms. We will not allow anybody to rubbish the governor. Any attack on the governor is an attack on Abias.”

    Aku, a prominent businessman and community leader, added: “We will do everything legally to stop the attack on the governor and the confusion they want to create to deny the people of Nkwa Ngwa their right. Abia will go where the governor will go. Governor Orji has followers and Abia people are with him. In 2015, power shift to Ukwa Ngwa is non-negotiable. Anybody who wants to truncate this agenda should wait and see what will happen. Those who have skeletons in their pocket will be exposed. Abia people know the source of their wealth.”

    But, apart from zoning, there are other factors that will shape the contest. These include the quality of aspirants, their popularity among stakeholders and delegates, financial strength and the influence of the governor,  who is expected to hand over to a successor who has the ability to continue with the modest foundation laid by his administration.

    Close associates of the governor insist that it would be a great disservice to the state, if any aspirant who has a link with past retrogressive forces succeeds  him. In their view, another retrogressive successor may reverse the gains of the last seven and half years.

    A PDP chieftain from  Ohafia Council, Chief Kalu Asiegbu, said Abia cannot afford to return to another period of doom. “If I have my way, I will call on  delegates to the primaries to shun any aspirant who held positions during the last administration between 1999 and 2007,” he said.

    Also, the Methodist Archbishop of Umuahia, Most Rev. Sunday Agwu, said  the state must not return to what he described as the years of locust. At a thanksgiving service organised for the Secretary to the Government (SSG), Prof. Mkpa Agu Mkpa, at the Wesley Methodist Church, Umuahia, the cleric also reflected on zoning, saying that it is only meaningful, if it throws up a competent person. Turning to the governor, he said: “We have heard that your party has a zoning system. So, you intend to hand over to Ukwa/Ngwa indigenes. Your Excellency, our plea is that you should be careful about the person you are handing over to.

    “We will not want to have a governor who is selfish, inaccessible, an idol worshipper, not compassionate, parochial, clannish and inhumane, or a governor who does not like to support the work of God.”

    Aspirants eyeing Orji’s job include Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe, Mr. Friday Nwosu, a lawyer, Senator Nkechi Nwaogu, Mr. Marc Wabara, Mr. Okey Emuchay, Mr. Uche Ogah, Chief Acho Nwakanma and the Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Diamond Bank Plc, Dr. Alex Otti.

    Nwosu has been endorsed by party chieftains, monarchs, religious leaders, businessmen, women groups, youths and non-indigenes, who are fascinated by his hard work, accomplishments and integrity.

    Nwosu hails from Obingwa Council. He is popular across the three districts. He is a staunch supporter of the governor. Observers see him as a front runner, a bridge builder, who is not in the race to settle scores, a loyal party man and an aspirant who does not have links with previous rulers of the state. Nwosu is also perceived as a non-controversial figure.

    Declaring his ambition in Umuahia, he said: “I’m in the race for the governorship position in Abia State, not just to run, but to build on the foundation laid by Governor Theodore Orji, who has laid a solid foundation for the State. As a legal practitioner of 22 years standing, I have the capacity, vision and commitment to take the state to the next level.

    “I offer my wealth of experience to serve and assure you I will not disappoint the people of Abia State. If I have any plans to deceive Abia people when I become governor, let God stop me, but if I have good intentions for the people of the state better than other aspirants, let God make me governor to the glory of His name. I vow to serve God and humanity selflessly.”

    Nwosu urged the people to support Orji. “Abia state has witnessed several administrations in the past, yet, it has no secretariat, conference centre and other structures. Ministries were scattered around the state capital while the Government House is rented. It was only during Governor Orji’s tenure that things began to change for the state.”

    Abaribe, who is in the race for the second time, is a former deputy governor. He was shoved aside as the number two citizen under former Governor Kalu. He went to the defunct All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP). When he returned to the PDP, he bounced back as a senator. In the Upper Chamber, he is the spokesman.

    Like Nwosu, the senator is favoured by zoning. Besides, he said that he is the most qualified for the front seat, having served as the deputy governor. Many groups and associations have also endorsed Abaribe.

    Nwaogu is the only woman in the race. She is an Amazon. She is popular in her district. But, she is not favoured by zoning.

    The senator is active in the Senate. He is also in touch with the grassroots. On regular occasions, he has organised empowerment programmes for constituents, who have applauded her kind gestures. Nwaogwu has supporters. But, it appears that she may not be favoured, owing to gender consideration.

    Nwakanma is a seasoned banker. He is popular in the financial sector. He is also perceived as a man of integrity. But, he is new in politics.

  • Kwara 2015: Ahmed’s battle for second term

    Kwara 2015: Ahmed’s battle for second term

    Kwara State Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed has been endorsed for second term by many stakeholders. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU writes on the succession battle in the Northcentral state between the ruling All Progressives Congress and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

    Ahead of next year’s general elections, Kwara State Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed’s second term ambition has been endorsed by no fewer than 15 groups and associations. They include students’ bodies, women groups, the National Union of Road Transport Workers Union (NURTW), and other non-governmental organisations (NGOs). Also, musicians, artisans, traditional rulers and influential political leaders from the three senatorial districts are backing him. To many observers, these are core stakeholders who can mobilise for his victory at the poll.

    However, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has decried the gale of endorsements, saying that it will not work. The party said that it will not brighten the chance of the governor in the election.

    Few weeks ago, the Kwara North Youth Consultative Forum, the National Association of Kwara State Students (NAKSS), and the Ilorin Emirate Students Union also promised to support his candidature, if Ahmed emerges as the flag bearer of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

    Giving reasons for supporting the governor’s bid, the students said that his people-oriented policies and programmes are worthy of commendation. Their leadern Ajadi Muyideen, lauded what he described as Ahmed’s selfless service to the people. He expressed gratitude to the goverment for the payment of bursary to tertiary students. He said the move wsas a relief to parents.

    “As a body that always fights for students, we want to personally salute the courage of our dear governor for his good works and we assure him of our unalloyed support at all times,” he said.

    Also, the Ilorin Emirate Students Union, in its statement signed by its President, Alaburo Sherifideen, described the governor’s achievements in education as unprecedented. Sherifideen noted that the governor had been sensitive to public yearnings, pointing out that the reduction of tuition fees at the Kwara State University, Malete, by 50 per cent has reduced dropouts rate among tertiary students. He also praised the governor for making primary and post-primary education tuition free. He said the renovation and construction of classrooms had enhanced a conducive atmosphere for learning in schools.

    The Coordinator of Kwara North Youth Consultative Forum, Ibrahim Kutan Muhammed, said Ahmed has success stories to tell in  health, agriculture, energy, works and transport, education and youth development. “In view of his doggedness, the Kwara North Youth Consultative Forum is in full support of the governor for a second term in 2015 so that he can continue the good work,” he added.

    However, despite the gale of endorsements, Ahmed has other hurdles to cross. Kwara Central District, like the South, is agitating for power shift, although the zone had enjoyed the slot for 12 years. There are other calculations. The Peoples Democratic party (PDP) may zone its governorship to the Central, which is more populous and has a history of bloc votes. The propaganda of the opposition party is strong. Ahmed has been painted as the product of Saraki Dynasty at a time some elements are pushing for a shift in political alliance.

    However, the governor may have done his calculations very well, ahead of the electioneering. For three and half years that he has ruled the state, he has not stirred any controversy. Also, no politician has come between him and his political leader, Senator Bukola Saraki. Unlike other states, where crises between predecessors and their successors have reached the peak, there is a cordial relationship between the former governor and Ahmed. His leader and the entire political camp are proud of his achievements. There appears to be an understanding that, since Saraki spent two terms of eight years, that precedent should be followed.

    However, as the succession battle gathers momentum, the second term battle will not be a walkover for the governor. Ahmed has to work harder to secure a second term.

    Following Saraki’s defection to the APC, some calculations were altered. There are new permutations. There is a debate on which senatorial district is likely to guarantee victory for the party, especially when the PDP is working to snatch victory from it. Since last year, some people have said that the defection may cost the governor the second term ticket. Although there is no consensus yet on succession in the APC, some party chieftains believe that Ahmed’s political future hangs in the balance, despite the fact that he has performed. However, those against his ambition allude to political expediency, claiming that since the PDP is likely to pick its flag bearer from Kwara Central, the ruling party should not be indifferent to its implications for the election. This latter group feels that another a stronger aspirant would be a better option.

    Kwara Central has the highest number of voters. Therefore, it is the target of the PDP.  The  aspirants in the zone include Dele Belgore (SAN) and Prof. Oba Abdurahaman. But, the zone cannot solely install the governor. Therefore, the opposition party is also mobilising support in the  South, where the governor comes from, and the North, to pull the rug of the feet of the APC.

    In spite of the permutation, the APC is still believed to have an edge over the PDP. The ruling party is popular across the three districts. Not only has it been able to overcome the regression to ethnic division by the PDP, but, unlike the PDP, which lacks an arrowhead, the APC is forging ahead under the leadership of Saraki, ably supported by his lieutenant, Ahmed.

    But, the uneasiness in the APC, which was triggered by the strategic decision of the PDP to pick its candidate from the Central, has not fizzled out. Since the zone is regarded as a huge electoral asset, given the fact that it boasts of the highest number of registered voters, the anxiety in the APC and among the governor’s is not unfounded.

    If the PDP eventually picks its candidate from the zone, as being speculated, the South, where the governor hails from, would be up for grabs. Sources said that the North could go either way. But, the endorsements may altered the conjecture, as the APC and its supporters are not sleeping on guard. In fact, the endorsements are part of the strategies to convince the anti-second term ambition that people are pushing for continuity because Ahmed is popular.

    A strong message was sent to the governor’s critics when he was endorsed by stakeholders from the North District. The Emir of Lafiagi, Alhaji Kawu Haliru, has thrown his weight behind his second term bid. The endorsement ceremony was witnessed by former Governor Shaaba Lafiagi, who is representing the district in the Senate, House of Representatives member Aman Pategi, many public office holders, community leaders, representatives of professional groups, youths, women, artisans and peasants. Speakers at the event highlighted developmental projects and  empowerment schemes across the districts. Urging the APC to field him in next year’s poll, they maintained that the governor has lived up to expectation.

    Emir Haliru, a highly respected leader, is believed to have spoken the minds of his people. Analysts believe that his blessings also came as a relieve to the governor’s camp, as it meant that the zone’s agitation for power shift, may not affect APC’s chances at the polls.

    The endorsement by stakeholders from the North is also significant for another reason. It may weaken the alleged one term pact between the governor and his leader. In 2011, the feeling was that Ahmed will spend one term and handover to a governor from the North. But, since the endorsement of the governor, there has not been any contrary view.

    Also, the North, like the Central, has the advantage of a bloc vote. Although there are some PDP governorship aspirants from the zone, they are paper weight actors.

    The South, where the governor hails from, is solidly behind the him. Many analysts believe that the endorsement and the mobilisation of indigenes appear to have properly positioned the governor for the final endorsement by the party. In fact, his kinsmen have embarked on an aggressive mobilisation for his ambition. During the voter’s registration, they trooped out for the exercise. Now, the calculation is that the combined forces of Saraki in the Central and Ahmed’s foot soldiers in the South should forge a working alliance with compatriots in the North to ensure the push for continuity next year.

    However, the PDP is of the opinion that the APC’s calculations would hit the rock. According to its leaders, this agenda may not work.  The PDP believes that endorsements do not translate into electoral victory, adding that the royal father who has endorsed Ahmed lacked the mandate of the voting public.

    The PDP Deputy Publicity Secretary, Femi Yusuf, doubted the validity of the endorsements, saying that it is unreliable.  He said the next election would be a battle of supremacy between the APC and the PDP. Faulting the endorsements, he said they were instigated by the government.

    “We see the endorsement as a mere figment of the imagination of the APC. It does not provide the party with any leverage when the election comes.

    “That aside, the traditional ruler is a civil servant, who collects salary from the state government monthly. So, what do you expect? When they are endorsing him for a second term, what would warrant the endorsement? What have they done for the area  for them to say he should continue in office?

    “You can only deserve endorsement, if you have surpassed the previous administrations. But, the past 12 years have shown that the people of the North District have been neglected. Go to Baruten or Kayama, Lafiagi and Patigi to see for yourself.”

    However, the Special Adviser to the governor on Communication Strategy, Alhaji Raheem Adedoyin, disagreed with the PDP spokesman. He said:”The governor, through his ‘Shared Prosperity Agenda’, has sustained the impactful developmental momentum of his predecessor and he actually deserves the support of well-meaning people to continue his people-oriented projects.

    “He has successfully consolidated on the projects of the former governor and opened up new ones, which have direct bearing on the people and that simply explains why the people are clamouring for continuity.”

  • I’ll battle Jonathan for PDP ticket, says Balewa’s son

    I’ll battle Jonathan for PDP ticket, says Balewa’s son

    The son of Nigeria’s First Republic Prime Minister, Dr. Abdul-Jhalil Tafawa-Balewa, has said he will contest the 2015 presidential election on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

    Tafawa-Balewa condemned the plot by the national leadership of the party to demoralise other presidential aspirants by adopting President Goodluck Jonathan as PDP’s sole candidate.

    He was responding to the adoption of Dr Jonathan by the party’s National Executive Committee at its meeting in Abuja on Thursday.

    With the adoption, the party said it expected party members, including those nursing presidential ambition, to drop it and queue behind the President.

    But Tafawa-Balewa said he would not be intimidated with such decision.

    In a statement yesterday, the politician said the endorsement of Dr Jonathan was undemocratic.

    He said: “I’m not intimidated by the decision of the PDP governors and the party to support the second term aspiration of President Goodluck Jonathan. What type of democracy do we have?”

  • Kwankwaso’s, Shekarau’s men battle for Senate

    Kwankwaso’s, Shekarau’s men battle for Senate

    Correspondent KOLADE ADEYEMI writes on the senatorial ambitions of All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) gladiators in Kano State and their chances at the polls. 

    All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) senatorial aspirants in Kano State are holding consultations with stakeholders in the three districts, ahead of primaries.

    After the shadow polls, the two parties will brace up for the general elections. The proposed senatorial poll is perceived as a popularity test for the two leaders, Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, the arrowhead of the APC,  and his predecessor, Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau, the Minister of Education and leader of the PDP.

    In the recent local government election, the APC had 92 per cent victory. The party is waxing stronger in the Northwest state. But, the PDP is not sleeping on guard.

    Kwankwaso, the founder of the Kwankwasiyya political movement and the leader of the APC   believes that the achievements the state has witnessed in the last three and half years gives him the edge to determine who takes what in the 2015 general elections.

    In a recent interview, the Director of Press and Public Relations to the Governor, Alhaji Halilu Dantiye argued that Kano is 100 per cent an APC state. He cited the party’s victory at the local government elections as an indication of its acceptance by the people. In his words, “the outcome of the last local government elections is a signal that the forthcoming election would follow the same pattern. You see, people are surprised that the APC garnered about 92 per cent, while the other parties shared the remaining eight per cent in terms of party strength. But, we are even surprised that they have up to eight per cent because the people of Kano have embraced the APC.

    “You see, when Governor Kwankwaso mounted the saddle of leadership in 2011, he captured not less than 48 per cent votes on the platform of Kwankwasiyya Movement within the PDP. But, now with the merger— you have remnants of the defunct ANPP led by Bashir Tofa, and 100 per cent of the CPC members led by General Jaafaru Isa, who was a gubernatorial candidate. You also have members of the defunct ACN, led by former Deputy Governor, Engr. Abdullahi Gwarzo, who was equally the party’s gubernatorial candidate in 2011.

    “So, this was what gave the APC 92 per cent in the recent local government election. Going forward, this means that they are going to maintain the 92 per cent, particularly considering the fact that most of the on-going projects would have come on stream before the commencement of the election.  We do not have any problem, as far as Kano is concerned; the 2015 elections at all levels will be in favour of the APC.”

    In the PDP, there is no gainsaying the fact that Shekarau, the immediate past governor of the state, would play a critical role in the party’s quest to bounce back in Kano. The former governor, who left the APC in protest over Kwankwaso’s hard grip on the party, is currently basking in the euphoria of the support he enjoys from the Presidency as one of the most powerful ministers.

    A source said that President Goodluck Jonathan has ordered his men in Kano, including Shekarau, Mohammed Abacha and Aminu Wali, to do everything humanly possible to demystify Kwankwaso and his political movement in next year’s elections. “As I am speaking to you, the President’s men have started lobbying Kano APC members in the National Assembly. Don’t be surprised that very soon, some of them may defect because the Presidency is ready to offer anything to ensure that Kano is taken over by the PDP.”

    The political atmosphere in Kano is now charged with aggressive politicking, with senatorial aspirants making frantic efforts to outsmart one other. Unlike in previous elections, where candidates already knew where the pendulum would swing before the actual balloting, no one can predict the outcome of the 2015 National Assembly elections in Kano. The fact, however, remains that there is an air of uncertainty. The fate of the  candidates seems to be hanging on the balance because  Kwankwaso and the Shekarau factor will certainly determine who gets what in the election.

    It is now apparent that the people of Kano would ultimately decide the composition of their representatives in the Upper Chamber next year, even as those currently occupying the seats are plotting harder to retain it. The Nation  gathered that Senator Ibrahim Kabiru Gaya, from Kano South Senatorial District may succumb to pressures to forgo his governorship ambition and maintain his seat at the Senate.

    Kano politics is not driven by issues, but largely by the personality and financial capacity of the individual candidate. Ironically, party platforms may not play any significant role in determining who wins the election. Sentiments, emotion, and sometimes, frivolities may likely play key roles. The bottom line is that the success or otherwise of any candidate in the National Assembly election may be  predicated upon his ability to win the hearts of the voters. The onus, therefore, rests squarely on the candidates to convince the electorate  that they can deliver on their mandate.

     

    Alhaji Bashir Garba (PDP)

     

    One of the popular gladiators who  fighting for the senatorial soul of Kano Central is Alhaji Bashir Garba, currently representing the district. A cousin to the Nigeria’s late Military Head of State, General Sani Abacha, Garba emerged by defeating former Speaker of the House of Representatives Alhaji Umar Ghali Na’aba in the 2011 PDP primaries. From all indications, Garba, a successful businessman, is the man to beat, because he is believed to be one of the aspirants with deep pockets. His humane disposition and generosity have endeared him to the people.

     

    Senator Bello Gwarzo (Pdp)

     

    Bello Gwarzo is senator representing Kano North on the platform of the PDP. The Senate Chief Whip is seeking to re-election into the Red Chamber. He defeated the  Secretary to the  Government (SSG), Alhaji Rabi’u Suleiman Bichi, to emerged winner at the PDP primaries in 2011. Gwarzo has been in the Senate since 1999. He lost the April 2007 election to Alhaji Aminu Sule Garo of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). But, Garo’s victory was upturned and handed to Gwarzo on the grounds that he tendered fake educational qualifications.

    Gwarzo has served as a member of various Senate committees. He facilitated the construction of the historical Lamba-Kunchi-Kazaure federal road, which gulped over N7.8 billion. Another major project engineered by the Senator was the Watari Irrigation project, which was executed at the cost of N4.2 billion, to serve the communities in his constituency. He has facilitated in electricity projects to the communities the renovation of some schools and the sinking of boreholes. He is the most experienced of the candidates contesting the senatorial seat for Kano North. Besides, it must not be forgotten that Kano North is a traditional stronghold of his party, the PDP, and this could go a long way in handing him another mandate in the Senate.

     

    Senator Kabiru Gaya (APC)

     

    Senator Kabiru Ibrahim Gaya is perhaps the most popular and most formidable candidate in Kano South. Many factors are believed to be in his favour. He is  representing the district and a former governor  in the botched Third Republic. Many believe that he may decide to retain his seat at the Senate.  Gaya has been an active member in the Senate and has been making meaningful contributions to debates at the Upper Chamber. He is the Deputy Minority Whip and a member of several standing Senate committees, a vehicle he used to attract federal presence to his constituency.

     

    Alhaji Usman Alhaji (ApC)

     

    A veteran politician, Alhaji Usman Alhaji is one of founders of the PDP in Kano. He has been in politics since 1978; serving as a member of the defunct National Party of Nigeria (NPN) in the Second Republic. He was also the Secretary-General of the National Republican Convention (NRC) in the Third Republic. He served as the Registrar of Kano State Polytechnic, which was known as the Institute of Higher Education. Later, he became the Commissioner for Education under Kwankwaso’s first tenure.

    Things however started falling apart, as the animosity between him and Kwankwaso deepened, when he and members of one of the defunct factions in the Kano PDP, known as the Garkuwa Group, accused the Kwankwaso-led Kwankwasiyya Group of lack of internal party democracy. This served as compelling factor in his defection from the PDP to the CPC, where he finally found solace.

    As a candidate of the PDP, he lost the Kano South race in 2007  to Senator Gaya of the ANPP. Today, he is going into the race for the third time, but this time under the platform of the APC.