Tag: Buhari administration

Successive administrations have been paying lip service to diversification of the economy. But there are indications that the Muhammadu Buhari administration, compelled by the realities of the recession and its promises of change, has had to take some hard decisions. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI examines the drive by the administration to chart a new roadmap for the economy.

THERE is a glimmer of hope that the Muhammadu Buhari administration is  working towards improving the country’s business and economic climate.

First, the announcement came three weeks ago that Acting President Yemi Osinbajo had signed three Executive Orders, to change some of the ways government business and operations are conducted, by removing the issue of duplication of duties and confusion in the operations of the various ministries, departments and agencies.

This was followed up by an interactive meeting two weeks ago between some members of the Federal Executive Council, led by the Acting President, and about 2,000 senior civil servants that would drive the Executive Orders,  aimed at improving the business environment.

With this development, the government appears to have provided the direction of economic planning in the medium term. The shift of focus from short-term plans to medium and long-term planning became discernible two months ago, with the publication of the administration’s policy roadmap, the

Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP). Experts say the document contains important reform goals, such as increased spending on infrastructure, privatisation of state-owned assets; improvement of revenue collection; achievement of food security, and acceleration of the environmental clean-up in the Niger Delta.

It also provides clarity on fiscal and monetary policy and makes it clear that government is interested in pursuing economic — in particular, fiscal — diversification policies.

With the state of the economy, which is faced with dwindling oil revenues, consistent depreciation in the value of the naira and a slowing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, it has become imperative to go back to the drawing board, to reposition the country towards looking beyond oil and leveraging on other resources.

Nevertheless, the reluctance to introduce reforms over the years has often not been a factor of poor planning, but of implementation. Against this background, how far can the Buhari administration go in its quest to reduce the country’s over-reliance on export of crude oil for revenue and foreign exchange?

Experts are in agreement that, after dithering for about two years, the administration appears to have found its bearing on the economy. The National Chairman of the United Progressives Party (UPP), Chief Chekwas Okorie, said there are signs in recent times that agriculture may be revamped and that the country may be self-sufficient in food production in the near future.

A finance and investment consultant, Mr. Akintunde Maberu, puts it in better perspective. He said one thing the administration has succeeded in doing is to discourage the importation of all manner of goods and encourage local production, particularly in the agricultural sector. He said: “We had become so much import-dependent, but since the Buhari administration came on board, import has begun to waiver and exports are gradually picking up.

“I’m in love with what is taking place in the agric sector. The Minister of Agriculture, Audu Ogbe, has done tremendously well. We have seen small farmers being assisted with loans. There are pockets of complaints that the percentage of repayments are not as high as it should be, but we will get there.

“Don’t forget that the partnership between Lagos and Kebbi has produced many millionaires in the northern state. People are now going back to agriculture, because it a veritable way of earning a living; it is a veritable way by which the entire nation can be fed. The country’s capacity in rice production is growing and it is even said that the Nigerian rice is more tasteful. We now know that we have been eating chaff in the name of imported rice. Those who have started eating Nigerian rice no longer wish to go back to the imported variety.”

A lecturer in the Department of Political Science, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State, Dr. Godwin Dappa, also believes that the impact of the administration’s efforts to diversify the country’s economic base is beginning to yield some dividends. He said: “I think the Buhari administration is making headway in the attempt to diversify the economy. But with his health challenges, so many things are still uncertain, including the sustainability of his policies.

“His cabinet is also not working as a team. We have serious challenges with members of his cabinet, because many of them are not sincere. This is because when one sincere person is working with many others who do not share his enthusiasm, what do you expect? We may still continue to face the challenges of implementation.”

Dappa said diversification of the economy has been very difficult to achieve because there is no political will. He said: “We have very good policies on paper, but we’ve always had problems with implementation. If our leaders had possessed the political will they would have succeeded in achieving some success in that regard.

“Let’s face it, we have not really put our manpower into use; all hands are not on deck, if hands had been on deck, Nigeria would become a great power in the world, like China. If one local government faces the production of cassava and another one faces the production of sugarcane, which is used for the production of ethanol, and so on, we would have gone far.”

The quest to improve the environment for doing business in the country has rekindled the hope that Nigeria can survive without relying solely on oil.

Africa Development Bank (AfDB) former Vice President, Chief Bisi Ogunjobi, said, if the country could sustain its effort in diversifying its agricultural base, it could survive without oil,.

He said: “But this will only happen if we put in place the appropriate macro-economic policies, the necessary agricultural policies, mechanisation of the agricultural sector, the right policy for producers and incentives for farmers. If this happens, the country can survive and even do better without oil.”

Ogunjobi, an economist and the lead partner, McFeley Development Associates, said oil is a free resource and that Nigerians did not do anything to bring it into being. He said: “It is exploited with the assistance of technology and foreign investors. In agriculture, on the other hand, it is the people themselves that produce the wealth. Therefore, the impact is completely different, in terms of employment and the knowledge which the people have.”

He said successive leaders since the 1970s abandoned agriculture, because oil is an easier alternative. He said: “During the pre-colonial days and the early days of independence, the defunct Western Region was built on cocoa. The infrastructure in the region built during that period, including the Cocoa House, Ibadan, was financed from proceeds from cocoa. But, successive governments took the path of least resistance.”

Ogunjobi believes it is a paradox that Nigerians are still talking of the diversification, when the economy is already diversified. He said: “When you look at the geography of Nigeria, you have the forest areas in the South and you have the Sahel savannah in the North. All the agricultural produce of the North is different from that of the South. Even that alone is a built-in diversification, which allows the economy to have a sort of smooth override over a period of time.

“In the South, you have the forests, you have timber, you have palm oil, you have rubber, you have cocoa and other products, and in the North, you have the grains. So, the economy is already diversified and that is what happened in the pre-colonial and the early days of the independence, with cocoa, palm oil, rubber and timber from the South, whereas in the North, we have ground nuts, we have the various other grains, including millet and sorghum. We are talking of diversification because we abandoned agriculture, which was the backbone of the economy before the discovery of oil.”

The economist said but for frequent changes in government policies the country would have performed better in the last 18 years of civil rule. In this regard, he faulted the Buhari administration for not building on what Akinwunmi Adesina did as Minister of Agriculture under the Goodluck Jonathan administration, adding: “Adesina did some positive things in the sector, but rather than build on it, they have tried to reinvent the wheel.”

He added: “Take the case of Lagos State, for instance, I believe the performance of the successive leaderships were largely influenced by the stability and continuity of the governorship management of the state. This ensured that policies remained in the same direction; whereas, when you go to other states you will find that subsequent or succeeding governors usually abandon the policies of their predecessors, by starting all over again.

“This was also reflected at the national level, when the policies enunciated by former President Olusegun Obasanjo were not followed by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua. Similarly, all the policies put in place by Yar’Adua were also abandoned by the succeeding administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan, while those of the latter were also not followed by President Muhammadu Buhari.”

Government after government has only been paying lip-service to diversification of the economy. For instance, states in the North talk in glowing terms of the ground nut pyramids of Kano in the period before Nigeria’s independence in 1960 and during the First Republic. But many of them do not have an agricultural policy regarding the production of ground nut and other grains cultivated in the region. Similarly, states in the Southwest have not been able to do much to resuscitate the growing of cocoa in the region. The same thing applies to palm oil and rubber in the Midwest and the East. What percentage of the budgets of each of the states and that of the Federal Government are devoted to agriculture? The truth is that the emphasis has not been on agriculture.

The signing of the Executive Orders is coming at the right time, because the country needs to improve its competitiveness, in terms of doing business. Government agencies are supposed to facilitate business for local and foreign investors, but they have become a cog in the wheel of progress, because they have failed to provide the enabling environment for the economy to thrive.

Experts say the country can improve its competitiveness, by promoting security, continuity, long-term planning, ease of registering a business, registering properties, access to electricity, as well as enforcement of contracts and putting mechanism in place to fight corruption in the society. For instance, registering a company in Nigeria is done through the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC). Though the commission has offices in all the states, it is only its headquarters in Abuja that offers expedited registration services. Nigeria is currently ranked 169 out the 190 countries in the World Bank Ease of Doing Business index. This is a slight improvement on the 2015 ranking, where the country was placed 170 out of the 189 countries studied then.

Ogunjobi said the government must increase the tax net, because Nigeria is a country that has the least taxation. He said: “In most advanced countries, the economy is run on taxation. In Nigeria, the average man does not pay tax. So, the tax base has to be broadened. People must be cajoled, convinced or made to understand that payment of taxes is obligatory. Apart from taxes, we have other mineral resources, apart from oil, which are virtually unexploited. Aside from oil, I don’t know of any mineral resources that contribute two per cent to the gross domestic product (GDP).”

Maberu said increasing the number of people in the tax net could be achieved by simplifying the mode of paying taxes. This, he said, could be done by making the electronic filing and payment system mandatory, an approach that would make paying taxes less cumbersome and result in a significant improvement in tax revenue.

The consultant, however, wants the government to eliminate multiple-taxation, because discourages inflow of investment. He said: “Importing agents are complaining; we hope that many of the duties will be streamlined. The clearing agents go through a lot of hassles to clear imported goods and this discourages free flow of business and most times it forces importers to divert goods coming to Nigeria to neighbouring countries, where they are later smuggled in without paying the charges.”

To tap into the global tourism industry, Ogunjobi said Nigeria has a long way to go. He said the government must tackle the growing insecurity in various parts of the country and that it should continue with the development of  the infrastructure.

He added: “If there is no infrastructure, nobody would come; if there is no security, nobody is going to come.”

The biggest problem facing the  administration is its slow pace in taking crucial decisions. It has taken the administration 22 months to publish a policy plan, which experts have described as a rehash of proposals previously espoused by past administrations. Elder statesman and Second Republic politician, Alhaji Tanko Yakassai, said a party campaigning to take over government ought to have a blueprint for the economy. He said: “It is a matter of necessity for you to have a plan, if you are coming into power. The economy had no direction in the last two years, because the government in power had no plan.”

With only two years remaining in the administration’s four-year mandate, it does not appear to have enough time to pursue the implementation of the new roadmap to logical conclusions, since the country would be entering the electioneering campaign mode by the middle of next year. The timeframe does not provide much of a window for all the reforms outlined in the ERGP to be carried out.

But, it might still be able to pull it off, if it could muster the political will to forge ahead with it against all odds. Ogunjobi said this could be, provided that the same government would be in place beyond 2019.

He said: “One of the problems we have is that there is no continuity; we don’t follow up. Every leader always wants to come up with his programme and do not always want to identify with that of his predecessor.”

Observers said the re-election of the All Progressives Congress (APC) administration-led by Buhari would largely depend on his health and whether he would be seeking  a second term in in 2019. Only time will tell.

The economy went from bad to worse in the out-going year, following the slump in the price of crude oil and reduced output due to the return of militancy in the Niger Delta. This had dire consequences for the Muhammadu Buhari-led administration, which is still struggling to  deliver on its promises of revamping the economy and creating employment opportunities for the teeming population. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI looks at the events that shaped the year politically.    

FOR Nigerians from all walks of life, this year has been the most challenging one in several decades. Following the first peaceful transfer of power from one party to another the previous year and the promise of economic policy reforms in 2016 when the new administration would implement ‘its own’ budget, there were heightened expectations from the President Muhammadu Buhari-led administration.
Indeed, in the spirit of his campaign promises, President Buhari had assured Nigerians in his New Year broadcast that his administration was committed to alleviating the problems confronting the nation on various fronts.

Slump in economy
But, it is either the President underestimated or reckoned that he could surmount some of the major challenges already discernible at the inception of his administration. Things started to go haywire from the beginning of the year, as the naira further weakened at the parallel market, with the dollar scarcity occasioned by the restriction placed on foreign exchange dealings by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) led to a soaring demand for the United States greenback.
In the second quarter of the year, the authorities admitted that the country was in a recession. A drop in investment and oil prices, currency weakness and a hike in inflation are adding to the country’s woes. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a slowdown across many sectors of the economy. The recession has been underscored by a slump in foreign investment. At the time, inflation was hovering around 16.5 per cent.
Tumbling global oil prices and the return of militancy in the Niger Delta have battered the country’s oil-dependent economy, because 90 per cent of her foreign exchange earnings come from crude oil exports. This affected the price of virtually all the goods and services required by the generality of Nigerians for survival.
In bid to stabilise the economy, the Central Bank floated the local currency, the naira, by removing its fixed value to the US dollar on June 20. As a result, it lost over a third of its value. Hitherto, the naira was pegged to between 197 and 199 naira for one US dollar. Immediately after the policy was announced, the value of the naira fell to 270 for one US dollar in early-morning trading. It has continued to lose value since then. This is the first time Nigeria would be floating its currency, but the move is line with those of other oil-producing countries like Venezuela and Angola.
Matters were not helped by the delay in the passage of the budget, due to the allegations of padding. The two arms of the National Assembly, the Senate and the House of Representatives declared that the 2016 budget had gone missing. When the matter was eventually resolved, they declared that it was full of errors and that the document could no longer be passed on February 25 as earlier promised.
This sparked off the budget crisis between the Legislature and the Executive, which eventually metamorphosed into budget padding scandal that subsisted till September. This eventually led to the suspension of the erstwhile Chairman of the House Committee on Appropriation Hon. Jibrin Abdulmumin.

Fuel crisis
The month of March was characterised by acute shortage of fuel across the country, with long queues of motorists being the common sight at major filling stations. In the wake of this crisis, the Minister of State for Petroleum, Ibe Kachikwu, had indicated that oil produced in Nigeria’s refineries would not be sold but kept in a “strategic reserve”.
When the crisis escalated, Kachikwu tried to exonerate himself by saying that he had no “magic wand” to make the product available overnight. The statement stirred up the polity across the nation.
In May, the administration plucked the courage to announce a hike in the price of fuel; from N98 to N145. This came after several meetings and heated debates between the Federal Government and leaders of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), the Trade Union Congress (TUC), the National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) and the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), the Federal Government capped fuel price at N145 per litre in mid-May, despite threats from the union leaders to resist the hike.
The increment, according to Kachikwu would lead to improved supply and competition which would in turn boost the nation’s foreign earnings.

Fresh agitation, militancy
With Boko Haram “technically defeated”, the Buhari administration had a new adversary at the beginning of the year: the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA). They were responsible for attacks against the infrastructure of the oil companies operating in the region. The rebel group had made it clear that it wanted to halt oil production. The attacks had reduced oil production from the planned 2.2 million barrels to 1.4 million barrels a day.
The series of protests, marches and gatherings by members and supporters of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) that started in August 2015 continued in 2016. Tensions increased following the continued detention of IPOB leader, Nnamdi Kanu, who was arrested on October 2015. IPOB is seeking for an independent republic.
According to Amnesty International (AI), the largest numbers of pro-Biafra activists were killed on Biafra Remembrance Day on May 30, 2016, when an estimated 1,000 IPOB members and supporters gathered for a rally in Onitsha, Anambra State.
A statement by the Interim Director of AI Nigeria, Makmid Kamara, said: “The night before the rally, the security forces raided homes and a church where IPOB members were sleeping. This deadly repression of pro-Biafra activists is further stoking tensions in the south east of Nigeria. This reckless and trigger-happy approach to crowd control has caused at least 150 deaths and we fear the actual total might be far higher.”
“The Nigerian government’s decision to send in the military to respond to pro-Biafra events seems to be in large part to blame for this excessive bloodshed. The authorities must immediately launch an impartial investigation and bring the perpetrators to book.”
Similarly, the year witnessed a tense relationship between the Shi’ite minority and the government. The sour relationship stems from the alleged killing of about 350 Shi’ites in December 2015 and the continued detention of their leader. The government maintains that the group provoked the attack. The military says the Shi’ites tried to kill the Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Tukur Buratai.

Rescue of Chibok girls
The discovery of Amina Ali, who escaped from her abductors with her Boko Haram ‘husband’, on the outskirts of Sambissa Forest in May, heightened hope that the remaining girls are still alive. According to the army’s reports, the couple and their daughter were found in a building at Bale village after a fierce fight between some Boko Haram insurgents and the youth vigilantes. Amina, her parents and Boko Haram ‘husband’, identified as Mohammed Hayatu, were later received by the President at the State House.
On October 13, another 21 of the missing Chibok girls were released from captivity. The circumstances surrounding the release of the girls are still unclear. According to local sources, the girls were swapped for Boko Haram prisoners. The Federal Government has however denied this. Nevertheless, the release of the girls is a big boost for the government, because it suggests that Buhari has succeeded where his predecessor failed.
For over two years, the 276 schoolgirls had become a symbol of the Boko Haram terror. Although the Nigerian military was able to take back seized territory from the insurgents, the Buhari administration had come under criticism, because the girls were still at large.
The humanitarian crisis in the Northeast has also been a cause for concern. Aid agencies have dubbed it the worst situation of hunger in the world. More than three million people in the region have been forced out of their homes. Although the administration declared in December 2015 that it had “technically defeated” Boko Haram, the islamists has continued to launch attacks in parts of the Northeast.

Elections
National and State Assembly rerun and governorship elections also took place during the year. The first legislative rerun election was witnessed in Rivers State in March, but could not be concluded, because the contending parties resorted to violence. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had to suspend the process. The prospects of witnessing more violence delayed elections into the remaining legislative seats till December 10. There was also a rerun election In July, to fill the then vacant Imo North senatorial seat in the Red Chamber. It was won by Mr. Ben Uwajumogu of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The first governorship election was witnessed in Edo State on September 28. The APC’s Godwin Obaseki defeated his PDP counterpart, Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu, in the contest. The election was shifted from the earlier date of September 10 by INEC, citing security concerns. On November 26, another governorship election was held in Ondo State, to elect a successor for the position that would be vacated by Governor Olusegun Mimiko early 2017. Mr. Rotimi Akeredolu of the APC won that election. His closest challenger was Mr. Eyitayo Jegede of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Political crisis
The two major political parties, the APC and the PDP were embroiled in internal crisis throughout 2016. But the crisis in the PDP was more intractable. The party has been in crisis since it was voted out of power during the 2015 general elections, but it was after the emergence of Senator Ali Modu Sheriff its Chairman in February that things really fell apart and stakeholders could not agree on the way forward. Though Sheriff was removed during the party’s botched May National Convention in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, the former Borno State governor refused to go, arguing that a controversial Abuja Federal High Court judgment by Justice Okon Abang has mandated him to remain as chairman till 2018.
The PDP’s recent loss of power in Ondo State could be attributed partly to the crisis rocking the party at the national level. Until two days before the election, the party’s flag bearer, Jegede, could not campaign, because the candidate of the Sheriff faction, Mr. Jimoh Ibrahim, was laying claim to the ticket; he used all manner of legal entanglements to ensure that the matter remained unsettled. It was the judiciary that intervened to ensure that the disagreement was resolved before the November 26 election. Efforts by the Jegede camp to get INEC to postpone the contest to allow the PDP candidate to campaign fell on deaf ears.
As for the APC, the failure of the party to put its house in order before the National Assembly leadership election in June 2015 is still haunting it till date. The emergence of Bukola Saraki as the Senate President, with the assistance of the opposition, brought a division in the ruling. Though the party dominates the National Assembly, the crack within the fold has brought about a situation where it now constitutes opposition against itself. This has resulted in most proposals from the Buhari-led government not seeing the light of day. The crisis within the APC also reared its ugly head during the impasse that followed the death of its candidate in Kogi and during the party’s September 3 governorship primary in Ondo. According to newspaper reports, Buhari has been holding consultative meetings with Saraki in recent times to resolve the disagreement.

New helmsmen
A number of first class traditional rulers crowned within the period. On March 4, a music promoter, Saliu Adetunji, became the new Olubadan, following the death of Oba Samuel Odulana. On that day, Ibadan, the Oyo State capital, stood still as people from all walks of life thronged the Mapo Hall, the venue of the coronation, to witness the ascendance of the then 87-year old as the 41st Olubadan of Ibadanland.
In March, Gbaramatu, in the southern part of Warri, Delta State, witnessed the coronation of Prince Williams Naira Ogoba as 26th Pere of the kingdom. Chief P.T Heavens had occupied the throne of Gbaramatu in the capacity of a regent until recently, when the kingmakers picked Prince Ogoba as the new king. The kingdom had hitherto been getting national attention because it is the homestead of an ex-warlord, Government Ekpemuolo, alias Tompolo. The coronation, which took place at Oporoza, the headquarters of Gbaramatu, attracted an unprecedented number of sons, daughters and friends of the kingdom, including former President Goodluck Jonathan.
Following the murder of his father, Obi Edward Ofulue III, the traditional ruler of Ubulu- Uku Kingdom, also in Delta State, 17-year old Chukwuka Noah Ofulue ascended the throne of his forefathers in July. He received his staff of office from the Delta State Government on Monday September 5, amidst a lot of pomp and ceremony in the kingdom. The youngest monarch in Nigeria chose the tittle, Obi Akaeze I.
The emergence of Obi Chukwuka Noah Akaeze I drew the attention of many observers from far and near, not only because of his age and comportment, but also due to the circumstances surrounding the death of his father. Although he is relatively young, Obi Akaeze I is endowed with the wisdom and intelligence of an adult.
On October 20, it was the turn of the ancient kingdom of Benin, the Edo State capital, to crown the new monarch. After observation and performance of every necessary traditional rite in an elaborate ceremony that attracted everybody’s attention, Prince Eheneden Erediauwa was installed as the 40th Oba of Benin. The new Omo N’oba N’edo Uku’ Akpolokpolo took the title of Ewuare II. The ceremony received national attention.
Borgu, New Bussa in Niger State is another place where the nation’s attention shifted to in November, as new traditional ruler, the Emir of Borgu, was installed. Following the demise of Senator, Dr. Haliru Dantoro III, the traditional ruler of Borgu, his son, Mohammed Sani Haliru Dantoro IV, ascended the throne in November, 2015. But he received the staff of office almost a year later in October 2016, from Governor Sanni Bello, in an elaborate ceremony.
Diplomatic blunder
Buhari committed a diplomatic blunder during a state visit to Germany to seek for closer economic ties with the European nation, when he made comments that were considered disparaging towards the female gender. Ironically, he was standing alongside one of the most powerful women in the world, Chancellor Angela Merkel, when he made the comment. In his response to criticisms (from his wife) that his government has been hijacked a cabal, the President told the world that his wife belongs to the kitchen, the living room and other rooms. Mrs. Buhari made her accusation in an interview with the BBC’s Hausa language service.
President Buhari’s blunder is considered a turning point for a government that has clearly struggled to deal with economic recession and is facing growing disquiet within the ruling party. Aisha Buhari campaigned vigorously for her husband in the 2015 election, organising town hall meetings with women’s groups and youth organisations. However, she kept a low profile at the start of the administration. She was restricted to her work on the empowerment of women and helping victims of the Boko Haram conflict in the Northeast where she is from. This is one reason why the damning interview caught the attention of many Nigerians.