In its bid to unseat President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in next year’s general elections, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with 38 opposition parties. The Coalition of Unity Political Parties (CUPP) is coming less than seven months to the elections. Assistant Editor LEKE SALAUDEEN examines the chances of the coalition and factors that may work against it.
LESS than seven months to the next general elections, the political arena is already witnessing a realignment of forces to confront the All Progressives Congress (APC), which is likely to field incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari. In one of such moves, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has entered into an alliance with 38 political parties, under the aegis of the Coalition of Unity Political Party (CUPP), to brighten its chances against the ruling party in the 2019 general elections.
This is not the first time Nigerians will be witnessing a political alliance. The country’s political history is replete with failed alliances and mergers. But is the CUPP likely to get it right this time around? In the view of respondents, the success or failure of the bid will depend on the way and manner the PDP and the other parties consummate the alliance. But going by previous experiences, their chances are very slim.
For instance, former Senate Deputy Minority Leader, Senator Olorunnimbe Mamora, said there were two dominant political parties in the South in the First Republic, the Action Group (AG) and the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC), which formed a coalition known as the United Progressives Grand Alliance (UPGA) to wrestle power from the Northern People’s Congress (NPC). He said the bid failed because of personal ambitions of the leadership of the two parties.
Mamora also recalled that in the Second Republic some progressive elements across party divides made an attempt to work together and present a common presidential candidate against former President Shehu Shagari in 1983. The coalition effort collapsed as the parties involved could not agree on a candidate. They went their separate ways and each party presented presidential candidates for the election.
The former Senate Deputy Minority Leader said given Nigeria’s past experience on coalition for election purposes that it is not likely to work. He said: “If history is anything to go by, it won’t work. There is nothing to suggest or to believe that the new coalition (CUPP) will work this time around”. He said the approach of the actors and characters behind the coalition will not make it succeed. His words: “Their selfish interest is what is driving the coalition and not what is good for the country. They are desperately looking for a platform to win election to continue their usual business of looting.
“The wise decision taken by the leaders of the APC at its formation stage was that they took cognisance of past experience on coalition and opted for a merger of the political groups; the legacy parties surrendered their identities and formed a new political party. But in coalition, each party still maintains its identity, independence and they talk from the point of individual party’s position. They would not consider issues from the point of what is good for the country and the people, but what will benefit them. They are so driven by the selfish agenda.”
Besides, Mamora mentioned timing as a major factor that would work against the success of the coalition. To him, it is rather late in the day, because by August or September, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) would be calling for nomination for the presidential election.
He added: “Where is the time for the coalition to put its acts together? Unlike the case of the APC, the plan for merger started much earlier; immediately after 2011 general elections. The party was registered in 2013, almost two years ahead of 2015 elections. The party had ample time to put a structure on ground; draw up a programme and sensitise Nigerians on what it stands for.”
A senior lawyer, Mr Emeka Ngige, said the desperation of some leaders of the coalition may not make it work and it may end up in futility. He said many of those looking for a platform to contest and win election, particularly within the PDP, would back out the moment they failed to get the presidential ticket.
Ngige said: “I don’t know of any candidate that can match President Muhammadu Buhari in any part of the country? The coalition should come up with a credible candidate that can give Buhari a good fight. Nigerians are more enlightened; they know what is good for them. The emergence of the coalition is good for our democracy; it has reduced the number of options and it will save INEC from the pains of producing ballot papers with long list of political parties.”
He said the emergence of the coalition would make the ruling party to wake up, to realise that its power is under threat and to improve on its performance. He called for a free and fair election to consolidate the country’s fledgling democracy.
To Professor Ayo Olukotun, for the coalition to work, it has to overcome some hurdles on its way. He noted that the coalition is working against time, “but it doesn’t mean they cannot come up with something”.
Olukotun who teaches Political Science at the Olabisi Onabanjo University (OOU), Ago –Iwoye, Ogun State, listed the hurdles as follow: “The conflicting ambition of several heavy weights in the coalition who will like to be president, senators and governors must be addressed; and they have to reconcile those ambitions for peace and harmony to prevail in the alliance.
“It is not yet clear whether they will form a political party like the APC or whether each party will retain its identity. The direction they are going is not clear. Though they signed a Memorandum of Understanding, but how binding is the MoU? Are they going to merge or maintain their identities and to simply render assistance to one another?
“Like most Nigerian political parties, there is no ideological cement that holds them together beyond the agenda of ousting Buhari in 2019.”
Lawyer and civil rights activist, Mr Monday Ubani, said most of the key players have presidential ambition which they want to realise through the coalition. He said some of them may abandon the coalition, if they failed to get the ticket. The lawyer and human rights is not convinced that the coalition would work. He said going by history of coalition in the country, the possibility that CUPP would make a difference is very low.
Ubani Nigerians are sceptical over the sincerity of the people behind the coalition, especially the PDP stalwarts alleged to have looted the public treasury. He asked rhetorically: “Will the coalition serve the interest of the nation and the people or parochial interest of those behind it? How genuine are they? How will they carry Nigerians along? These are the questions that must be answered to convince Nigerians that it is for the good of Nigeria and the people.
Ubani added: “There is nothing impossible to achieve, with strong determination. The coalition should tell us their programmes; what they would do to improve the standard of living; their position on restructuring. Many Nigerians are waiting to hear from political parties how they would go about restructuring the country.”
A youth activist, Malam Haruna Alkali, has ruled out the success of the coalition. He said the characters behind it are people that do not wish Nigeria well. He said their motive is to return to power and continue to loot.
Alkali said the PDP has nothing to offer. His words: “Nigerians have known them and what they stand for. If it were in other climes the party leaders would have been banned from holding political offices. But here in Nigeria they are boasting of wresting power from President Muhammadu Buhari whose administration has impacted positively on the people. If they like, let them go into coalition with 1,000 political parties, they will meet their waterloo in 2019.
“I don’t know of any other region, but in the North any political party that associates with the PDP is dead on arrival. They spent 16 years in office to loot our common patrimony. What would they promise us now? Some of the parties they claim were members of the alliance have refuted the claim; others have pulled out. A house built on sand cannot stand. The PDP should apologise to Nigerians for the current economic hardship in the country as a result of its mismanagement of the economy.”
In the first Republic, the defunct Northern People’s Congress (NPC), which was led by the Sardauna of Sokoto, the late Sir Ahmadu Bello, had political dominance and influence in the former Northern Region and principally dominated the government at the centre. Due to resentment and the need to wrestle power from the then Tafawa Balewa-led government, a coalition called United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA) was formed.
UPGA comprised Obafemi Awolowo’s Action Group (AG), Nnamdi Azikiwe’s National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC), Joseph Tarka’s United Middle Belt Congress (UMBC) and Aminu Kano’s Northern Elements Progressives Union (NEPU). The NPC did not relax to watch the display of mergers; it quickly moved to form the Nigeria National Alliance with Ladoke Akintola’s Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP), which was domiciled in the Western Region.
UPGA failed in its bid to unseat Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa Balewa in the 1964 general elections, as a result of mutual suspicion and personal ambitions of the leaders of the alliance.
In the Second Republic, there were six major political parties segregated along ethnic lines: the Nigerian People’s Party (NPP), the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) and the Great Nigerian Peoples Party (GNPP). The six parties formed the People’s Progressive Alliance (PPA) to oust the ruling National Party of Nigeria (NPN). Subsequently, the NPN launched a divide and rule strategy in the loose-knit PPA. There was division, the alliance collapsed and NPN was returned to power.
In 1999, the Alliance for Democracy (AD), which dominated the Southwest region, aligned itself with the All People’s Party (APP) that had a strong hold in the North, with the intention of defeating the PDP at the presidential poll. The alliance adopted Chief Olu Falae of the AD as its presidential candidate and Alhaji Umar Shinkafi of the APP as his running mate. It gave the PDP a good fight, but failed to win the election.
In 2007, about 15 political parties merged to form the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), but the party made little or no impact in the presidential election. It fielded former Vice President Atiku Abubakar during the election. In 2011, 26 political parties formed a coalition to oust Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in Lagos State. The 26 parties, which included the late Gani Fawehinmi’s National Conscience Party (NCP), the Action Party of Nigeria (APN), the Action Alliance (AA), the Democratic People’s Party (DPP), formed an alliance known as Coalition of Lagos State Opposition Political Parties (COLASOPP). The sole objective of the coalition was to dislodge the ruling ACN from power. Interestingly, ACN won all the elective offices in that election.
Before the 2011 elections, the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the former Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the erstwhile All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) attempted to join forces to field a joint presidential candidate to challenge former President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP. The move fell like a pack of cards when the parties could not reach an agreement on who to field. While the CPC fielded General Muhammadu Buhari, the ACN handed its ticket to Nuhu Ribadu, the former Chairman of Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).
After the 2011 elections, leaders of the merging parties went back to the drawing board to strategise ahead of 2015. First, they set up various committees to brain storm on how the merger could be effectively handled. This led to the meeting of 11 governors drawn from the six geo-political zones. The meeting was held in Lagos in February 2012 and it eventually led to merger effort that resulted in the formation of the APC. The parties involved were the CPC, the ACN, the ANPP and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). They resolved to jettison their identities and formed a new party known as the APC. That was how APC became a formidable opposition party that wrestled power from a sitting president in 2015.