APC candidate tipped to win
14 factors that will determine outcome of presidential, National Assembly polls
After almost five months of intensive campaign, President Goodluck Jonathan and former Head of State, Major General Muhammadu Buhari will slug it out today in the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (Abuja) for the exalted position of President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.
Nigerians will also decide those to sit in the next legislative chambers of the National Assembly – 109 for the Senate and 560 for the House of Representatives.
It is the first time since the beginning of the present political dispensation in 1999 and 22 years after 1993 that two major parties will appear evenly matched.
In 1993, the defunct Social Democratic Party and the disbanded National Republican Congress, both creation of the General Ibrahim Babangida government, went into the election -with bookmakers predicting a close race. The SDP candidate, Chief MKO won the election but was annulled by the Babangida government.
In today’s polls, many analysts have predicted a tight race. Both Jonathan and Buhari are however confident of victory, but many opinion polls give the race to Buhari.
More than ever, the presidential race has drawn the attention of observers from the United Nations, the African Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, eight other foreign countries and 96 local observer groups.
According to the records of the Independent National Electoral Commission, 14 candidates were cleared to contest the Presidential election. They are Goodluck Jonathan (PDP), Mohammadu Buhari (APC); Sen. Tunde Anifowose-Kelani (AA); Rafiu Salau (AD); Alh. Ganiyu Galadima (ACPN); Dr. Mani Ibrahim Ahmad (ADC); Ayeni Musa Adebayo (APA); and Chief Sam Eke (CPP).
Others are High Chief Ambrose Albert Owuru (HDP); Prof. Comfort Oluremi Sonaiya(KOWA); Chief Martin Onovo (NCP) Allagoa Kelvin Chinedu (PPN) Godson Okoye (UDP); and Chief Chekwas Okorie (UPP).
The real contest is however between Jonathan and his arch-rival Buhari. The election has generated tension in and outside the country. The fears over the keen race had led to shuttles to the country by ex-UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan; the US Secretary of State, John Kerry; the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General, Ibrahim Chambas; ex-President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa; and the President of Ghana, John Mahama.
To pave the way for peace during and after the poll, ex-UN Secretary-General Annan facilitated the signing of a peace accord by all the political parties on January 14, 2015 in Abuja. On Thursday, another accord was signed between Jonathan and Buhari. Both candidates pledged to accept the outcome of the election.
Although the January 14 accord reduced the rate of political violence during the campaign, the management of post-election period is a major worry to the international community, including President Barack Obama of the US, who urged Nigerians, in a broadcast, to accept the outcome of today’s election irrespective of who wins.
Why the poll is unique
Besides the competitive race between the PDP and APC, this is the first time in the history of Nigeria that Permanent Voters Card, card reader and colour code will be used for different states and local governments to prevent rigging.
It was learnt that since the 2007 general election which was largely flawed, INEC had been looking for alternatives of eradicating electoral malpractice, especially impersonation, under-age voting, and declaration of jumbo results.
The Chairman of INEC, Prof. Attahitu Jega, on Wednesday said: “This is indeed why they have been attacking me because they know that the card reader machines will help us to address all those irregularities, starting from the accreditation of voters at all the polling units. How can they manipulate the election when all the information with regards to the number of voters that turned out at every polling unit is automatically captured and transmitted by the card reader machines?
“We have made rigging impossible for them as there is no way the total number of votes cast at a polling unit could exceed the number of accredited persons. Such discrepancy in figures will be immediately spotted. This technology will further make it impossible for any corrupt electoral officer to connive with any politician to pad-up results.”
Factors that will determine the outcome of presidential and national assembly elections
Factors that will determine the outcome of today’s polls are voting population/strength, ethnic allegiance, Boko Haram insurgency, holding the Presidential and National Assembly elections on the same day, logistics; the conduct of INEC and its permanent and over 600,000 ad hoc staff; the success of PVC, card readers and effective collation of results from polling units to ward and others; security situation/non-molestation of voters, non deployment of thugs, the impartiality of the military and other security agencies, and the readiness of parties, political leaders especially state governors and candidates to allow a free and fair poll.
Jega said: “Let me use this opportunity to reassure Nigerians that we believe that we have done everything possible to ensure that the 2015 general election is successful. We are adequately prepared in terms of both logistics and manpower.
“ Likewise, all the security agencies, especially the police which have a lead role to play in terms of providing security during elections, have assured us that they are ready.”
In admonishing Nigerians, President Obama alluded to some of these factors when he said: “For elections to be credible, they must be free, fair and peaceful. All Nigerians must be able to cast their votes without intimidation or fear.
“So I call on all leaders and candidates to make it clear to their supporters that violence has no place in democratic electionsand that they will not incite, support or engage in any kind of violence, before, during, or after the votes are counted.”
What a presidential candidate needs to win
Most surveys conducted indicate that Buhari has an edge, but for him to emerge winner he must have majority of the total votes cast and at least 25 per cent in two-thirds of the 36 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, that is 24 states.
Section 134 (2) and (3) of the 1999 Constitution says: “A candidate for an election to the Office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there being more than two candidates for the election(a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election; and (b) he has not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two-thirds of all the states in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory(FCT).
“In default of a candidate duly elected in accordance with subsection(2) of this section, there shall be a second election in accordance with subsection(4) of this section at which the only candidate shall be (a) the candidate who scored the highest number of votes at any election held in accordance with the said subsection (2) of this section; and (b) one among the remaining candidates who has the a majority of votes in the highest number of states. So however where there are more than one candidate with a majority of votes in the highest number of states, the candidate among them with the highest total votes cast at the election shall be the second candidate for the election.”
The pre-election outlook yesterday by THE NATION indicated that Buhari was ahead of Jonathan nationwide. He has the momentum and is certainly the candidate to beat.
Save for Taraba, Plateau and Benue states, he is well ahead of Jonathan in the north. In the 2011 election, he won most of the Northern states. He is expected to do better now that he is running on a better, well structured platform.
The outlook also showed that he will win Lagos, Ogun, Osun and Oyo in the Southwest and run neck and neck with Jonathan in Ekiti and Ondo states, both of which are controlled by the PDP. In 2011, he performed badly in the Southwest zone.
He is equally expected to win Edo state and do very well in Akwa Ibom state, both in the
South South. In both states in 2011, he lost woefully. In Rivers state, he is tipped to do fairly well with the support of Governor Rotimi Amaechi and his formidable structure.
His weakest zone is southeast where Jonathan is expected to do well.
The scenarios
As at last Thursday, the total number of Permanent Voters Cards collected was 56, 431, and 255 (81.98 %). Barring any other factor, these voters may end up determining the fate of Jonathan and Buhari.
Further findings however revealed that if Jonathan has 100 per cent control of all the votes from the South-East (6,621,541) and the South (8,418, 474), he would end up with 15, 040, 015 votes. As for Buhari, if he has 100 per cent of the votes from the North-East (7,922,444) and the North-West (14,241,740), he would garner 22, 164,184.
For the two candidates they have to compete for the 9, 238,718 votes from the South-West; 7,661,576 from North-Central and the available 569,109 votes in the FCT.
States to watch
In terms of voting strength and susceptibility to violence, the 15 states to watch are Kano (4,112, 039); Lagos (3, 799,274); Kaduna (3,174, 519); Katsina (2,620,096); Rivers (2, 127,837); Bauchi (1,967,081); Imo (1,707,449); Niger (1,682,058); Oyo (1,639,967); Benue (1,607,800); Akwa Ibom (1,587,566); Sokoto (1,527,004); Borno (1,407, 777); Adamawa (1,381,571); and Edo (1,230,566).
Setting the tone of the likely election outlook in the affected states, ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa on Wednesday at a grand rally of the PDP in Sokoto State, said: “They said we are planning to rig the elections in the state, I don’t know why they are afraid of rigging when they know too well that they are products of the same mechanism. Let me tell them that we will use force, rigging and our ballot papers to send them away.”
In a statement through its Director of Media and Publicity, Mallam Garba Shehu, the APC Presidential Campaign Council, alluded to the challenge in some of these 15 states.
It said: “Credible information available to the campaign from deep inside the Federal Government have starkly put it to us that the PDP administration has hatched a plan by which the states of Lagos, Imo, Bayelsa, Rivers, Kano and Sokoto will be racked by trouble of a serious magnitude to sabotage the presidential election and democracy in the country, in a sinister, wicked and selfish objective.”
Concerned by the war drumbeats, some eminent Nigerians, including ex-Head of State, Abdulsalami Abubakar, the Sultan of Sokoto, Alh. Abubakar Saad, the Catholic Arch-Bishop of Abuja Diocese, Bishop John Onaiyekan and others had another round of peace accord session with Jonathan and Buhari on Thursday morning.
But President Goodluck Jonathan, who addressed international election observers at the Presidential Villa, assured Nigerians of a conclusive poll. He said: “I’ll feel diminished if at the end of the day that the international and local observers don’t accept the process and the result. I won’t feel comfortable.”
As voters troop out today, the next 24 hours will determine where the nation is headed.
