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  • Think tank eyes 14 per cent inflation decline by year end

    Think tank eyes 14 per cent inflation decline by year end

    The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has ‎affirmed its position on a 14 per cent inflation figure by the end of the year as well as a reduction of the benchmark rate by the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee.

    The organisation established a link between the steady increase in Nigeria’s Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) and the decline in inflation in the country for the seventh consecutive month.

    ‎This, according to the policy group, is because the PMI reflects the state of health of the economy of a country.

    ‎In a statement by its Chairman Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI posited that Nigeria’s PMI recorded eleventh consecutive month of expansion since the beginning of 2025. 

    According to the latest Consumer Price Index released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, Nigeria’s inflation eased for the second consecutive month in October as new base-year adjustments and moderating food prices helped pull headline pressure lower.

    The report stated that the headline inflation rate fell to 16.05 per cent in October from 18.02 per cent in September, marking a 1.96-percentage-point moderation.

    The statement by IMPI said: “Going forward, we estimate further expansion in the PMI for the months of November and December 2025 which will also reflect in the inflation rates for the two months. In consideration of this, we reiterate that the inflation rate will decline to 14% by year end as projected in our Policy Statement 030.

    ‎”In addition, we also projected in Policy Statement 029 issued before the last meeting of the CBN Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in September 2025 that we expect it to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 150 basis points to 26% by year end. The Committee, as a first step, reduced the MPR by 50 basis points to 27% from 27.50%.

    ‎”Again, we reiterate that the softer inflation outlook validates the expectations for additional monetary easing by the CBN at its November policy meeting. 

    ‎”We therefore expect as a follow-up to our earlier projection, that the MPC will reduce the MPR by 100bps to 26.0% when it meets on the 24th and 25th of this month to determine the country’s benchmark interest rate.”

    It explained that by adopting the Predictive Regression (PR) model which uses Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) techniques to model inflation as a function of lagged values of key drivers, such as exchange rates or the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), it was able to establish a consistent pattern of increased productivity and general price reduction with higher intensity beginning from August 2025.

    The statement added: ‎”By our reading, we attest to the inverse relationship between Nigeria’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and inflation rate movements. To put this in context, an increase in PMI reflects a decline in inflation because a PMI hike is suggestive of a higher growth momentum in production and productivity measured across 36 sectors of the economy.

    ‎”Since the beginning of the year, the PMI has shown consistent expansion with the latest reading for October being 55.4, indicating a strong and broad-based growth. This marks the eleventh consecutive month of expansion, driven by growth in output, new orders, and employment across various sectors.  

    ‎”The PMI has remained above the 50.0 threshold throughout 2025, signalling a sustained expansion in economic activities. 

    ‎”This, essentially, is predictive of the general movement of household items’ prices as captured in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This had been trending downward, effectively, since April 2025 when it eased to 23.71% year-on-year compared to March 2025, when it rose to 24.23% year-on-year from 23.18% in February 2025.”

    ‎It also noted that since April this year, Nigeria’s PMI had been recording sustained growth which reflected in the downward trend of inflation and added that whenever there is a slowdown, it also showed in the inflation figure.

    The statement said: ‎”Reflecting the same quantum movement, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reported a composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of 52.40 index points for April 2025, indicating a sustained expansion in economic activities. 

    ‎”This was an increase from the 52.30 index points recorded in March 2025 and was driven by growth in both the services and manufacturing sectors.

    ‎”Nigeria’s PMI in May 2025, showed a slow uptick from a composite index of 52.1 index point for the month, indicating a 0.060 index point above the April 52.40 index point. 

    ‎”The slow upward movement in PMI is evidenced in the equally slow decline in inflation rate to 22.97% in May from 23.71%, a 0.74% difference.

    ‎”Again, in June 2025, the CBN’s composite PMI expanded by a low 0.2 index point to 52.3 from the 52.1 recorded in May 2025. In the same token, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 22.22% in June 2025 on a year-on-year basis, and like the PMI movement between April and May, the reduction was by a low 0.75% from the 22.97% recorded in May 2025.

    ‎”In July, Nigeria’s economic expansion continued with the CBN PMI for the month at 52.7 showing another low 0.4% marginal growth between June and July which also reflected in the July 2025 year-on-year inflation rate that dropped to 21.88%, down from 22.22% in June with a marginal difference of 0.34%.

    ‎”However, in September, the trend with both the PMI and the inflation rate took on a higher momentum with the PMI rising to 54.0, indicating a stronger pace of economic expansion for the tenth consecutive month.

    ‎”This faster pace of increase in the PMI also reflected in the inflation rate which vastly improved from 20.12% in August 2025 to 18.02% in September 2025, a 2.1% decline from the August figure and by trend analysis, a quantum leap when compared to the rate of inflation decline.

    ‎”The trend in the relationship and movements between the PMI and inflation is further sustained by their respective October figures with the CBN Composite PMI recording 55.4 index points, a significant increase in the PMI recorded between April and September 2025. 

    ‎”This larger margin of difference is also reflected in the country’s headline inflation rate which declined at a much faster rate to 16.05% in October 2025 from 18.02% in September 2025, a decrease of 1.96%.”

  • CBN calls for stronger coordination to sustain economic recovery

    CBN calls for stronger coordination to sustain economic recovery

    Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) yesterday said stronger coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities is crucial to sustaining the nation’s burgeoning economic recovery.

    The apex bank said Nigeria is witnessing clear signs of economic recovery following the implementation of key policy reforms.

    Speaking yesterday at the Finance Correspondents and Business Editors conference in Lagos, Deputy Governor for Corporate Services, Emem Usoro—represented by the Acting Director of Corporate Communications, Hakama Sidi Ali—outlined the improvements recorded since 2023.

    She said the reforms had contributed to notable macroeconomic gains, including a decline in inflation to 16.05 per cent, a more stable exchange rate below N1,500 to the dollar with limited volatility, and external reserves exceeding $46 billion, enough to cover more than ten months of imports.

    Also speaking, Chief Economic Strategist in ECOWAS Commission, Prof. ken Ife, advised currency to hoarders to offload dollars to reduce losses from ongoing naira rebound.

    Ife said there were many positive indicators pointing to significant and sustainable naira recovery that will spell doom for foreign exchange (forex) speculators.

    He said those waiting for naira to fall will wait in vain, given the $46 billion reserves position and rising interest of foreign investors in Nigeria assets.

    Ife said other indicators like the drop in inflation rate to 16.05 per cent in October show that the economy and local currency are upbeat and will strengthen further in the months ahead.

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    Continuing, Usoro explained that these outcomes reflect the return to orthodox monetary policy, enhanced corporate governance practices, and the ongoing bank recapitalisation programme, all of which are aligned with the federal government’s broader economic reforms. She stated that while the progress is encouraging, more work remains to be done. According to her, “the journey towards improved microeconomic fundamentals and enhanced living standards requires persistent efforts,” particularly through stronger synergy between monetary and fiscal authorities.

    She also spoke about the increasing influence of technological innovation and digital finance on the financial system. She said this development calls for robust regulatory frameworks capable of ensuring stability, resilience, and consumer protection. Usoro added that the media plays a vital role in conveying policy progress in a transparent and factual manner, which she said is critical for maintaining public trust and supporting policy success.

    Supporting this position, the CBN’s Lagos Branch Controller, Mr. Diabo Sunday Amorighoye—represented at the event by Assistant Director Anthony Adamu—said Nigeria’s macroeconomic objectives require both fiscal and monetary policies working in tandem. Adamu noted that monetary policy aims at ensuring price stability and managing liquidity, while fiscal policy focuses on public investment and social equity. According to him, synergy between the two “is essential to avoid inflationary pressures and bolster investor confidence.”

    He explained that well-coordinated policies can deepen financial markets, strengthen the naira, and drive inclusive economic growth. Adamu urged policymakers, economists, and the media to maintain open and constructive engagement, explore innovative ideas, and generate practical solutions to support Nigeria’s financial stability.

    The discussion at the seminar aligns with the broader economic outlook, with projections placing Nigeria’s GDP growth at about 4.17 per cent in 2025. Analysts attribute this forecast to fiscal reforms, steady crude oil production, and improved performance in the non-oil sector.

    With the CBN reiterating its commitment to reform and policy coherence, the institution says the country has entered a critical phase in its pursuit of macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth. The Bank noted that both the federal government and the CBN remain committed to implementing recommendations emerging from ongoing policy dialogues aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s economic future.

  • CBN Gov welcomes S&P’s upgrade of Nigeria’s outlook to positive

    CBN Gov welcomes S&P’s upgrade of Nigeria’s outlook to positive

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, has welcomed the decision of S&P Global Ratings to revise Nigeria’s outlook to “positive” from “stable,” describing it as a signal that reforms in the financial system are gaining traction.

    S&P announced the upgrade on Friday citing improving policy coordination, strengthened monetary management and steps taken to restore confidence in the Nigerian economy. 

    The revision shows that Nigeria is now viewed as having a better chance of achieving stronger credit fundamentals over the medium term. This means S&P now sees Nigeria as more likely to strengthen its economic and financial stability in the coming years, based on recent policy improvements. 

    In practical terms, the agency believes the country has a stronger chance of earning a future credit rating upgrade if current reforms are sustained.

    Speaking at a strategic session in Abuja, Cardoso said the development reflects the steady progress recorded in stabilising key economic indicators since the beginning of the year. 

    According to him: “This is encouraging news for the country. It shows that our efforts to restore stability, strengthen governance frameworks and rebuild trust in the financial system are being recognised internationally.”

    The Governor noted the CBN’s actions—ranging from tighter monetary policies to enhanced foreign exchange market operations—have contributed to clearer market signals and better investor confidence. 

    “The Central Bank has brought stability to the economy and become a beacon of hope,” he stated.

    Cardoso added that the improved outlook should motivate both public and private sector stakeholders to sustain ongoing reforms that support growth, investment, and long-term macroeconomic resilience.

    S&P’s latest position places Nigeria on a stronger footing ahead of future reviews and sends a positive message to global investors assessing opportunities in Africa’s largest economy.

  • Reserves; missing voters; security

    Reserves; missing voters; security

    The foreign reserve is reported by CBN to be $43.3b. Nigeria is well on the way to the $50b barest minimum foreign reserves for us to have some degree of financial self-respect as a country. Though Nigeria is still far behind the $200b minimum we should have saved by now, judging from our income over the years and our population at present. And we must not forget that we are borrowing quite a lot. The problem is that our financial trajectory follows our politics. 

    After every season of fiscal stabilisation and growth with increased foreign reserves, we face a season of locust politicians who know only ‘consumption, consumption, consumption’ and waste all our foreign reserves leaving Nigeria a financial cripple to be rescued again after eight years of the locust.  We will never make the necessary constant incremental rises in our foreign reserves if we continue to have presidential candidates who have no clue or appreciation of the need to improve the foreign reserves and seek to increase the value of our currency.

    Ignorantly, such presidents see CBN as personal money bag or ATM and they ignore wise fiscal advice and feel fiscal policy is not a paramount necessity for good governance and an important leadership quality. And as a result, the country’s citizens suffer. If Nigeria had saved the $25b from the Paris Club refunds instead of yielding to the governors’ demands, imagine how powerful our currency would have been today especially if governments had a tighter spending policy and greater control over misspending by the CBN officials.

    The mystery of ‘missing voters’ continues with the just concluded Anambra election in which Professor Charles Soludo was re-elected for a second term. Around 2.7m+ voter cards are supposedly out there with just 584,054 actual voters. Where are the over 2+ million who did not vote? Were they sick of elections, sick of voting, sick of politics, sick of politicians, out-of-state or ‘Not-On-Seat’ or waiting to be bribed to vote?  Where are the non-voting voters, countrywide?

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    We need to further sanitise our voter register we are told duplicated names have been removed. Good. The list needs to be delisted of the dead. We can seriously cut the cost of elections if we cut the quantity of election materials required to be prepared for such elections.

    The 2.5m Internally Displaced Persons in IDP camps plus another 2.5m Nigerian who are undocumented but  seen scattered around the country seeking safety and jobs and also seen at junctions and traffic lights. Add to this the terrible stories of massacres with deaths in excess of 100,000 and it is clear that governments have definitely not lived up to their responsibility to secure lives and property across the country. If the result of the noisy message surrounding this glaring failure spurs the Nigerian government into doing the right thing, then we should all sleep safer at night. Yes, governments have done something over the years and we have many gallant military and police and JTF, Joint Task Force, volunteers who have paid the supreme price that we may be free. For too long, the military and police efforts and the deaths seem not to have achieved success.

    The need for more efforts has repeatedly been pointed out in numerous ways, through the media, at conferences and every time another town or village faces bloodshed. Nigerians know that at least 20 countries have satellite cover over every inch of Nigeria. Nigerians know about tracing heat signals from motorcycle columns and the use of drones for monitoring. Nigerians also feel that the there is a weakness in the desire for total victory by some of the political and military parties involved in prosecuting this ‘undeclared’ war.

    Nigerians know that, unlike local calls for solution, the message trumpeted from abroad cannot be ignored by government. Nigerians demand that it will galvanise the long overdue multi-pronged offensive required to pre-empt any remotely operated international intervention or even boots on the ground. The messenger may be disliked for his persona or modus operandi but the message is crystal clear. It is time to put an end to the cancer of arrogant violence and impunity. Those who encourage and defend such acts must be sanctioned and removed from positions of trust.

    It is not alright to march across another man’s harvest, destroying his livelihood with your livestock. To be a part of the committee of nations, it is not alright to kidnap, murder or demand ransom. Until every such terrorist/bandit/herder event results in a successful capture, trial and judgement, we must demand seriousness and a full stop to such heinous acts from our government. We should all be happy that there are other eyes on our security ball. Security is highly technical and we need more cooperation with foreign satellite surveillance networks and cell phone monitoring. We must step up our actions to overcome the security challenges identified from abroad.  That fact should drive our actions. Security is essential for growth.

    In 1975/6, I served in the second set of NYSC in Jos and Bukuru and Barkin Ladi and Lafia. It is frightening to hear familiar names and places converted into ‘no-go-areas’ and theatres of war with almost daily death and deliberate destruction often successful attempts to wipe family history from the face of the earth. This must stop. Nigeria must stop its citizens or every tribe and religion being killed.  

  • CBN: FATF Grey List exit stabilises naira, as reserves cross $43 billion mark

    CBN: FATF Grey List exit stabilises naira, as reserves cross $43 billion mark

    The financial markets have responded positively to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) removal of Nigeria from its grey list of countries with money laundering and terrorist financing risks. The naira, foreign reserves and investors’ confidence have soared to new heights. The naira hit a 10-month high of N1,444.42/$ at the official markets nearly two weeks ago as more dollar holders offload their positions. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)-led reforms in the financial markets are tipped as major consideration driving the positive market sentiments and expected investment inflows to the domestic economy, reports Ibrahim Apekhade Yusuf

    The naira remains relatively stable following recent exit of Nigeria from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list. The milestone achievement opens opportunity for investment inflows and business expansion as well as eases payment hurdles for local operators.

    For several stakeholders, especially bank customers, the country is expected to witness influx of investment associated with improved business trust and confidence, make foreign bank account opening easier for businesses and supports naira’s rising competitiveness in global markets.

    Already, the naira has continued to record significant gains, appreciating to record N1,465/$ at the parallel markets.

    At the official window, the naira hit a 10-month high of N1,444.42/$ nearly two weeks ago, as dollar holders continued selling down their positions and increasing exposure to naira-denominated assets.

    The sustained appreciation of the local currency has been supported by improved market liquidity and renewed optimism in the economy, leading to rising capital inflows and stronger external reserves.

    The naira position represents a gain of N216.70 or about 15 percent compared to the N1,661.12 per dollar recorded in December 2024, when trading commenced on the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS).

    The gross foreign reserves also hit $43.10 billion on October 28, 2025, significantly supporting the local currency.

    President, Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Dr. Aminu Gwadabe, said: “The recently announcement of the Financial Action Task Force on the Exist of Nigeria from its Grey list known as Dirty money list on Friday the 24th of October 2025 as result of Nigeria preparedness on remediating their 40 recommendations have tremendously induced confidence, and removed tension in the market”.

    “The impacts reflecting plausibly as naira appreciate against dollars with N10/$,” he added.

    Commenting on the announcement, Central Bank of Nigeria Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said: “The FATF’s decision to remove Nigeria from the grey list is a strong affirmation of our reform trajectory and the growing integrity of our financial system it reflects a clear policy direction and the coordinated efforts of key national institutions working together to deliver sustainable, standards-based reforms. Our priority now is to consolidate these gains, ensuring that compliance, innovation, and trust continue to advance hand in hand to reinforce financial stability and strengthen Nigeria’s global credibility.”

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    The FATF leads global action to tackle money laundering, terrorist and proliferation financing. The 40-member body, which has the backings of the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund (IMF) sets international standards to ensure national authorities can effectively go after illicit funds linked to drugs trafficking, the illicit arms trade, cyber fraud and other serious crimes.

    For Nigeria, exiting FATF grey list, opened her potential in the global financial markets. The FATF leads global action to tackle money laundering, terrorist and proliferation financing.

    The 40-member body, which has the backings of the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund (IMF) sets international standards to ensure national authorities can effectively go after illicit funds linked to drugs trafficking, the illicit arms trade, cyber fraud and other serious crimes.

    The Paris-based watchdog’s decision represents a huge progress for Nigeria financial system as it works to restore investor confidence, reduce the cost of capital and strengthen financial system credibility.

    Other countries removed from the list include, South Africa, Mozambique and Burkina Faso. “As of February 2025, the FATF has reviewed 139 countries and jurisdictions and publicly identified 114 of them. Of these, 86 have since made the necessary reforms to address their AML/CFT weaknesses and have been removed from the process,” the report said.

    FATF identifies countries or jurisdictions with serious strategic deficiencies to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and financing of proliferation.

    “For all countries identified as high-risk, the FATF calls on all members and urges all jurisdictions to apply enhanced due diligence, and in the most serious cases, countries are called upon to apply counter-measures to protect the international financial system from the ongoing money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation financing risks emanating from the country,” it said.

    By closing gaps in regulatory oversight and enhancing enforcement against illicit financial flows, the four nations have now met the FATF’s requirements for delisting, boosting their standing among global financial institutions and capital markets.

    Nigeria and South Africa were added to the list in February 2023 while Mozambique was included in October 2022 and Burkina Faso initially in February 2021.

    Exchange rate reforms driving market confidence

    Forex reforms instituted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under the leadership of Olayemi Cardoso are now yielding great benefits from reduction in forex speculation and narrowing of gaps between official and parallel markets.

    The CBN leadership has continued to take major steps to keep the naira stable in line with its exchange rate stability objective. The apex bank is boosting FX supply to retail end users, reducing distortions in the market and maintaining effective foreign reserves management and accretions.

    The injection of liquidity into the market and rising compliance with FX regulations have reduced sharp depreciation of the naira at official and parallel markets and buoyed foreign investors interest on domestic economy.

    The naira stability is also driven by inflows from Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs), substantial contributions from International Oil Companies (IOCs), and the CBN’s interventions to authorised dealers.

    There is also renewed interest of Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in the FX market—driven by improved market confidence, a more efficient FX framework, and strengthening macroeconomic conditions.

    The impact is rise in foreign reserves and steady dollar inflows. The CBN chief Cardoso recently announced that gross external reserves remained robust at $43.05 billion on September 11, 2025, compared with $40.51 billion at end-July 2025 with an import cover of 8.28 months.

    “Similarly, the second quarter 2025 current account balance recorded a significant surplus of $5.28 billion compared with $2.85 billion in first quarter of 2025,” Cardoso stated during the 302nd monetary policy committee meeting held this week in Abuja.

    Aside the naira gaining more ground, speculative activities in the FX market has declined.

    A Bureaux De Change (BDC) trader based in Marina, central Lagos, Garuba Sarki, said many dealers lost huge funds as they sold below purchase rates as exchange rate gap narrowed.

    “I know some BDC operators that sold dollars below the purchasing rate. This is expected to continue in the weeks ahead. Also, the expected dollar inflows to the economy will help strengthen the naira position against the dollar,” he said.

    Gwadabe, attributed the ongoing stability of the naira against dollar and other world currencies to the CBN’s  policies.

    For him,  key policies like the Foreign Exchange (FX) Code, rising investors confidence, and foreign direct investment supporting policies are effectively putting FX speculators in check.

    He said the FX Code implementation is comprehensively addressing various aspects of market conduct and practices.

    For instance, the policy authorises the CBN to establish and enforce directives regarding the standards for financial institutions under which FX deals are to be conducted.

    Gwadabe said the code further entrenches transparency and accountability in the FX market, and continually sustain naira stability and rally.

    Analysts at Commercio Partners, attributed the rally and gradual narrowing of the exchange rate gap to a combination of stronger demand for the naira, reduced speculative trading, and improved foreign reserves.

    Head of Research at Commercio Partners, Ifeanyi Ubah, expressed optimism that the positive sentiment would be sustained in the near term, supported by increasing external buffers.

    “Nigeria’s rising external reserves are reflecting a healthier external position for the country. With reserves strengthening, speculative activity subsiding, and oil earnings supporting inflows, many market watchers believe the naira’s current rally has a stronger foundation compared to previous cycles of volatility,” he said.

    However, other experts caution that sustaining this momentum will depend on the government’s ability to maintain macroeconomic discipline, boost crude oil production, and diversify export earnings.

    Cardoso had upon assuming office in October 2023, prioritized reforms to rebuild Nigeria’s economic buffers and strengthen resilience.

    In the foreign exchange market, the apex bank faced a backlog of over $7 billion in unfulfilled commitments and a fragmented FX regime characterized by multiple forex rates, which had encouraged arbitrage opportunities.

    “Over the past year, we have undertaken critical reforms to unify Nigeria’s exchange rate, eliminating distortions and restoring transparency. This unification has enabled us to clear the outstanding foreign exchange obligations, giving businesses—ranging from manufacturers to airlines—the confidence to plan and invest in the future. To further enhance the functionality of the foreign exchange market, we are introducing an electronic FX matching system, which has proven effective in other markets,” Cardoso said.

    The CBN boss, had at the launch of the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Code (FX Code), emphasised integrity, fairness, transparency, and efficiency as critical pillars for driving Nigeria’s economic growth and stability.

    He said that the FX Code was built on six core principles: ethics, governance, execution, information sharing, risk management and compliance, as well as confirmation and settlement processes.

    These principles, he explained, aligned with international standards while addressing the unique challenges within Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.

    According to Cardoso, “The FX Code represents a decisive step forward, setting clear and enforceable standards for ethical conduct, transparency, and good governance in our foreign exchange market. The era of opaque practices is over. The FX Code marks a new era of compliance and accountability. Under the CBN Act 2007 and BOFIA Act 2020, violations will be met with penalties and administrative actions.”

    Besides FX Code, the apex bank also introduced the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS), which has proven effective in other economies in enhancing the functionality of the foreign exchange market.

    The EFEMS was meant to check forex market distortions, eliminate speculative activities and instill transparency. The EFEMS, which is commonplace in developed and developing markets offers real-time information on currency rates, trading volumes, and market activity.

    Additionally, the CBN lifted the 2015 restriction barring 41 items from accessing FX at the official market to enhance trade and investment.

    These reforms and developments reflect the bank’s commitment to creating an enabling environment for inclusive economic development. However, achieving macroeconomic stability requires sustained vigilance and a proactive monetary policy stance.

  • Banks’ recapitalisation targets Tinubu’s vision of $1tr economy by 2030 – CBN

    Banks’ recapitalisation targets Tinubu’s vision of $1tr economy by 2030 – CBN

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has explained that the new bank recapitalisation initiative is part of a critical push to have a robust, resilient, and inclusive financial system that would drive Nigeria’s economy towards achieving the $1 trillion mark by 2030, as set by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

    The Deputy Governor, CBN Financial Services, Mr. Philip Ikeazor, who disclosed this said that Nigerian financial system needed to rest on a strong base to be able to withstand shocks, advance more credit to micro, small and medium enterprises, which are the engine of any economy as well as have capacity to accommodate the marginalised in the society – women and youth -by bringing them into the financial net.

    Ikeazor spoke yesterday in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, at the opening of the 2025 retreat of the Association of Corporate Affairs and Marketing Communication Professionals in Banks (ACAMB).

     He was represented by the apex bank’s Director of Development and Financial Institutions Supervision, Mr Ibrahim Hassan.

    “Bank recapitalisation is not merely meant to create bigger banks, but better banks and banks that are safe, sound, well-governed, innovative and inclusive.

    “We are making the banks better, not only stronger, but better. If you have a strong bank, what does it translate into? So, better in the sense of your ability for inter-mediation, we are talking of a Nigerian financial system being capable of advancing more credit to micro, small, and medium enterprises, which are the engine of any economy.

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    “So, it is not just about being big. Being big is good, but big for what purpose? So, it is about resilience, the ability to withstand shocks that may come internally or externally and the inevitable that happens in every economy, your ability to do that role, perform that role that is expected to be performed in the Nigerian economy by advancing credit. And by advancing credit, the economy will grow to achieve that vision of having a $1 trillion economy by year 2030 as a vision under the new Renewed Hope Agenda of the current President Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” he said.

    He charged the ACAMB members to be proactive in leading the narrative through rigorous fact-based engagement.

    “All must contribute to the quest of creating a stronger bank that will compete with any banks in the world and have the prosperity to finance multi-million dollar projects,” he said. 

    The President of ACAMB, Mr. Rasheed Bolarinwa, said that no nation can achieve economic buoyancy without a resilient and robust bank banking system driving all sectors of such an economy through efficient credit advancement.  

    Bolarinwa noted that to make that happen, banks must be recapitalised to play that catalyst role to make the system a stronger brand that can support the present administration’s drive towards the trillion-dollar economy target by the year 2030.

    “Bank recapitalisation is a movement to rebrand the industry’s narratives and change the face of the industry to a more productive and residents’ industry,” Mr. Bolarinwa said.

    Also, a professor of Marketing from the Lagos Business School, Tayo Otubanjo, harped on the need for banks in Nigeria to have a definite value proposition that will resonate with the members of the public, while Nigerian banks must also strive to have distinct identities that would differentiate them.

    The retreat included plenary sessions, a master’s class, visits to the Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library and Olumo rock, among other activities.

  • CBN moves to shield economy as oil prices slide below comfort zone

    CBN moves to shield economy as oil prices slide below comfort zone

    Global oil prices have fallen sharply, now hovering slightly above $64 per barrel. For an oil-dependent economy like Nigeria, this persistent slide in crude prices poses a serious concern rather than a reprieve. The Wall Street Journal’s sobering projection that Brent crude could dip below $50 per barrel by the end of 2025 underscores the urgency for decisive policy action. In response, the Olayemi Cardoso-led Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has rolled out proactive measures designed to cushion the economy against the looming oil price shock, safeguard foreign exchange inflows and strengthen the foundations for sustainable growth, reports Assistant Editor COLLINS NWEZE

    The politics and volatility surrounding global oil prices continue to stir deep concern for Nigeria’s economy and revenue stability. Brent futures recently eased by 0.71 per cent to $64.47 per barrel as the U.S.–China trade truce excluded energy discussions, leaving the global supply outlook uncertain. Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s 2025 budget faces pressure, built on an assumption of oil production of two million barrels per day and a benchmark price of $75 per barrel.

    With current prices trading below this benchmark, oil revenues are expected to fall short, potentially widening the fiscal deficit to between six and seven per cent of GDP. Such a gap could heighten inflationary pressures, strain public finances, and test overall macroeconomic stability. To cushion the economy against the looming oil price shock, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), under the leadership of Olayemi Cardoso, has rolled out proactive measures aimed at strengthening non-oil revenue streams. These include policies to boost non-oil exports, enhance backward integration to cut reliance on imports, and streamline diaspora remittances to improve foreign exchange inflows.

    Drawing inspiration from China’s economic playbook, the CBN believes Nigeria’s competitive exchange rate can spur export-led growth. To harness this advantage, the apex bank is urging businesses to focus on sectors with high export potential — notably agriculture, manufacturing and the creative industries. Firms are encouraged to embrace import-substitution models by improving local production capacity and to pursue value addition by exporting processed rather than raw goods to boost foreign exchange earnings.

    Cardoso has also identified the creative sector as a potential $25 billion annual contributor to the economy, citing vast opportunities in music, film, crafts and digital exports. He called on entrepreneurs to leverage global platforms, international markets, and cross-border tours to attract dollar inflows. In a related development, the CBN governor urged telecommunications firms to reduce dependence on foreign imports by producing key components locally. The backward integration strategy, he explained, could unlock sustainable growth for the real sector and strengthen Nigeria’s industrial base at a time of growing fiscal pressure and shifting global dynamics.

    Global oil politics

    Global oil prices could face renewed pressure if OPEC+ moves to increase production at its November 2025 meeting. The alliance is reportedly considering reviving another tranche of output in December — a decision that may heighten market fears of a supply glut. Traders are closely monitoring India and China, key buyers of Russian crude, for signals that could reshape global demand and price dynamics.

    U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced that China would expand purchases of American energy under a broader trade truce, though investors remain cautious amid limited evidence of actual deals. According to Chinese Customs data, the country last imported U.S. crude oil in May and liquefied natural gas in February. RBC Capital Markets projects that OPEC+ may raise output quotas by a modest 137,000 barrels per day in December, a move that could further test already fragile market confidence.

    Creating economic buffers amid reforms

    Economic reforms instituted by the CBN have removed distortions and laid foundation for economic development, Cardoso has said. Speaking yesterday at the investors’ forum held at the sidelines of the ongoing IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington DC he said that bold and comprehensive reforms have led to greater macroeconomic resiliency and positive economic outcomes.

    The investors’ forum attended by JP Morgan and other stakeholders is meant to attract global investors to the domestic economy. He said the Federal Government will also issue about $2.3 billion Eurobond, which will also help refinance the $1.18 billion Eurobond maturing in November. He said the event provides a valuable opportunity to engage directly with our partners and investors who continue to show confidence in Nigeria’s future. Cardoso said the apex bank remains committed to prudent policy that would bring about durability, ensuring a lasting and positive impact in the economy.

    He said about four per cent growth target is being targeted, even as government is pushing through expansion of the non-oil sector growth. The CBN boss said that inflation has continued to drop, with 18.02 per cent target in the nearest term. He said that gross foreign reserves have hit five-year high at $43.4 billion, with capacity to provide 11-month import cover for the country. He said that Nigeria currently enjoys positive balance of payment, contributing positively in easing economic stability. He said difficult economic reforms embarked on by the Federal Government is bearing positive results as seen the stability in exchange rate, stronger economic buffers, and dip in inflation numbers.

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    Cardoso explained that apex bank has been able to build a stronger economy, through difficult things we have done. He said that Nigeria has a competitive naira, which is game changer that should attract investors to the economy. He said that with a competitive naira, FDIs inflows prospects to the economy has risen.

    Deputy Governor, Economic Policy at the CBN, Mr. Mohammed Sadi Abdullahi, said the apex bank has taken a lot on measures to prevent speculative activity and ensure best practices in the market operational framework. “Capital flows, which I mentioned, within the 2019–2020 period before, collapsed by over 75 per cent, have significantly improved and have therefore improved our external position. So, we do now have deeper and functional financial markets, much more robust and transparent. There’s been a significant increase in the average monthly turnover to $8.6 billion monthly in 2025 versus an average of $5.5 billion and much less in the year before. Today, CBN stands as a net supplier by less than about a percentage of the market turnover. We’re actually a net buyer in the market,” he said.

    Building resilient economy

    Nigeria’s economy has been fully restructured and is now resilient, with huge buffers against global risks, Cardoso told global investors at the annual meetings. Cardoso, who is the leader of the Nigeria delegation at the meetings, said the naira, has equally emerged as a competitive currency, with the economy witnessing positive trade balances and large businesses moving from imports to export of locally produced goods and commodities.

    According to him, the positive economic indicators have combined to create resilient and strong buffers, keeping the economy in great shapes. Speaking on the impact of the trade tariffs on the domestic economy, the CBN boss, said the tariffs are less of problems for the country. “And for us again, oil is basically the only commodity that was so exposed to the tariffs, and the impact of that was relatively modest. We now have a more competitive currency with the results that, for once, we have a situation where we have a positive balance of trade surplus, and we expect it to be six per cent in GDP for some time,” he said.

    Cardoso added, “So basically, what is happening is a complete restructuring of the economy, where we are encouraging people to go into domestic production, and, of course, discouraging imports. And I think we were very fortunate, because a lot of the things that were needed to have been done, we did them much earlier, and as a result of that, we’re able to create resilience and buffers against potential shocks.”

    Cardoso explained that oil was the oil commodity that was exposed to the trade tariffs, but the impact was equally modest. “So, and of course, in terms of anchoring expectations, we found that those who followed the Nigerian economy were fairly comfortable. And for us, again, oil is basically the only commodity that was so exposed, and the impact of that was relatively modest,” he said.

    He said the G-24 has played significant role in finding solutions to global challenges, through dialogue and exchange of ideas with global financial institutions. He said although global growth has been slow, but not as behind as would have been expected to be. In his remarks, G-24 Chairman, Pablo Quirno noted that recent adverse shocks in global economy have left growth below pre-pandemic levels, with rising policy uncertainties creating substantial medium-term headwinds. “Emerging market and developing economies have faced deteriorating terms of trade, reduced export volumes, and declining foreign currency earnings. Many of these countries have implemented domestic policies to mitigate uncertainty, but constrained policy space underscores the urgent need for collective solutions supported by multilateral institutions,” he said

    Discouraging foreign services import

    Speaking in Abuja during a visit by the Airtel Africa management team led by Group CEO Sunil Taldar, the CBN Governor underscored the importance of boosting local production to ease pressure on the dollar, generate employment and strengthen the national economy. He emphasised the urgent need to domestically manufacture key telecom inputs—such as SIM cards, cables, and towers—that are currently being imported in large volumes. Cardoso highlighted that over the past 16 months, the CBN has taken deliberate steps to stabilise the foreign exchange market, strengthen the naira, and attract investor confidence. With these foundations now in place, he urged telecommunications companies to embrace backward integration as a strategic imperative.

    In response, Airtel Africa CEO Taldar commended the CBN’s reform efforts and voiced strong support for local production, noting that such a shift would ultimately yield long-term benefits for the telecommunications industry. He also reaffirmed Airtel’s commitment to expanding financial inclusion across Nigeria through innovative technology solutions.

    Research Head, Cowry Asset Management Limited, Charles Abuede, said the CBN governor’s call was to discourage the importation of foreign services into Nigeria, especially when efforts can be made to develop such services locally. “The high demand for foreign exchange by telecom operators has further pressured the naira due to increased demand for the dollar. However, with adequate infrastructure development and a conducive operating environment facilitated by regulators, these challenges can be mitigated,” he said.

    According to Abuede, “given Nigeria’s FX policies, illiquidity in the foreign exchange market and infrastructure deficits, I think increased investment in the telecom sector would enable operators to embrace backward integration. This would allow them to manufacture key components, such as SIM cards, locally. As a result, production costs could decline—provided the operating environment remains stable. This will improve profit margins and enhance both top-line and bottom-line growth in the long run.”

  • Reps seek easy access to short loan for cassava farmers

    Reps seek easy access to short loan for cassava farmers

    The House of Representatives on Wednesday asked the Federal Government, through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to direct the Bank of Agriculture, the Bank of Industry (BoI) and other relevant financial institutions to provide easy access to short-term loans in favour of cassava farmers in the country. 

    The House also asked the government to immediately reconstitute the defunct Presidential Committee on the Cassava Initiative Programme, known as “Composite Cassava Flour of 2002” to improve the welfare of cassava peasant farmers in the country. 

    In a resolution following a motion sponsored by Canice Moore Chukwuugozie Nwachhukwu, the House urged the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security to embark on massive value chain training of peasant farmers on cassava production, processing and packaging. 

    Moving the motion, Nwachhukwu said cassava production in Nigeria is developing as an organised agricultural crop with locally established processing techniques for food products and livestock feeds.

    He informed cassava is produced in almost all the 36 States of the Federation, including the FCT, while the peels have a high level of Hydrogen Cyanide (HCN), particularly in bitter cassava varieties, which are common in Nigeria and used as an energy supplement in cattle, which can partly replace 30% of total Dry Matter Intake (DMI) energy concentrates, with no influence on the intake, digestibility, microbial efficiency and nitrogen retention and act as an antidote to many cattle diseases. 

    He stated that there are four planting seasons across the country’s six geopolitical zones and is therefore available all year round.

    According to him, this will give the farmers access to a better market share with good selling prices, which will ultimately increase their income while contributing their quota in feeding the nation and increase Gross Domestic Product (GDP), adding that diversification of the Nigerian economy could be achieved by using cassava as an alternative to crude oil to earn substantial amounts of foreign exchange through massive cultivation both for local consumption and export. 

  • CBN refutes claims of $1.259b disbursement for petroleum imports

    CBN refutes claims of $1.259b disbursement for petroleum imports

    Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has dismissed reports suggesting that it disbursed $1.259 billion to major oil sector operators for the importation of refined petroleum products and related items, describing such claims as inaccurate and misleading.

    In a statement yesterday, the CBN clarified that the figure referenced in its first quarter 2025 Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange data did not represent direct CBN disbursements.

    Instead, it reflected the total foreign exchange transactions conducted by participants in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) under the willing buyer, willing seller framework.

    According to the bank’s spokesperson, Mrs. Hakama Sidi Ali, “Since the unification of exchange rates in 2023, the NFEM has operated as a market-driven system, where foreign exchange is sourced and supplied by market participants, not allocated by the CBN. Accordingly, the Bank has not sold foreign exchange specifically for the importation of refined petroleum nor any other products.”

    She explained that the figure of $1.259 billion merely represents aggregate utilisation by authorised dealers and end-users who independently sourced foreign exchange through the market in compliance with existing regulations.

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    “The data cited in the report only captures legitimate market transactions and does not reflect any form of direct CBN intervention in the oil sector,” she stated.

    Sidi Ali noted that the willing buyer, willing seller system allows for transparency and fair price discovery in the foreign exchange market, reinforcing the CBN’s commitment to maintaining a market-based framework.

    She further assured the public that the Central Bank remains committed to transparency and stability in Nigeria’s financial system.

    “The CBN continues to promote a transparent, market-based foreign exchange regime that supports efficient price discovery, economic stability, and confidence in the Nigerian financial system,” she said.

    The Bank therefore urged the media and the public to verify information before publication, especially when it concerns sensitive economic data, to avoid creating false impressions about government policies or the management of the nation’s foreign exchange market.

  • CBN refutes claims of $1.259bn disbursement for petroleum imports

    CBN refutes claims of $1.259bn disbursement for petroleum imports

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has dismissed reports suggesting it disbursed $1.259 billion to major oil sector operators for the importation of refined petroleum products and related items, describing such claims as inaccurate and misleading.

    In a statement on Tuesday, the Bank clarified that the figure referenced in its Q1 2025 Sectoral Utilisation of Foreign Exchange data does not represent direct CBN disbursements. 

    Instead, it reflects the total foreign exchange transactions conducted by participants in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) under the willing buyer, willing seller framework.

    According to the Bank’s spokesperson, Mrs. Hakama Sidi Ali: “Since the unification of exchange rates in 2023, the NFEM has operated as a market-driven system, where foreign exchange is sourced and supplied by market participants, not allocated by the CBN. 

    “Accordingly, the Bank has not sold foreign exchange specifically for the importation of refined petroleum nor any other products.”

    She explained that the figure of $1.259 billion merely represents aggregate utilisation by authorised dealers and end-users who independently sourced foreign exchange through the market in compliance with existing regulations.

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    “The data cited in the report only captures legitimate market transactions and does not reflect any form of direct CBN intervention in the oil sector,” she stated.

    Ali noted that the willing buyer, willing seller system allows for transparency and fair price discovery in the foreign exchange market, reinforcing the CBN’s commitment to maintaining a market-based framework.

    She further assured the public that the Central Bank remains committed to transparency and stability in Nigeria’s financial system.

    “The CBN continues to promote a transparent, market-based foreign exchange regime that supports efficient price discovery, economic stability, and confidence in the Nigerian financial system,” she said.

    The Bank therefore urged the media and the public to verify information before publication, especially when it concerns sensitive economic data, to avoid creating false impressions about government policies or the management of the nation’s foreign exchange market.