- Why Nigeria must shun calls for military takeover
Robert Okon simply couched terror in a patriotic slogan. “Nigeria must be saved. Very soon, it will be our turn. The next coup will be in Nigeria,” he said. His words pirouetted with insolent conviction, inciting more doomsday predictions across his WhatsApp forum. One contributor to the discourse said it was about time Nigerians marched on the Defence Headquarters to present a formal letter to the armed forces to forcibly take over the reins of government.
Another brazenly suggested that the Russian mercenaries, the Wagner Group, be invited to facilitate the coup if the Nigerian Army wouldn’t budge.
No form of appeasement or moral suasion could pacify the coup mongers. Not even the cautionary take that “the internet never forgets.”
Many contributors to the forum applauded the increasing incidences of coup d’etats across the African continent. In a reflecting window perhaps they might discover the horror of their wild convictions.
There is no gainsaying a new pandemic spreads and spirals through Africa as gun-totting bloodhounds barge onto the corridors of power in a series of terrifying coup d’etats.
The culprits – mostly young soldiers and members of presidential guards – all chant their intent to salvage what’s left of their plundered nation-states. No thanks to “corrupt civilian leadership.”
The most recent coup was executed by military officers in the oil-rich Central African nation of Gabon. The officers said, early on Wednesday, that they had seized power and were overturning the results of a disputed election that returned the incumbent, President Ali Bongo Ondimba, for a third term in office.
Appearing on state-run TV hours after Bongo was declared the winner of last weekend’s vote, the officers said they were cancelling the result, suspending the government and closing Gabon’s borders until further notice.
Gunshots boomed through the country’s capital, Libreville, from the vicinity of the presidential residence soon after the announcement. Hours later Bongo, one of France’s closest allies in Africa, appeared in a video posted to social media and authenticated by an adviser, pleading for international help.
The takeover in Gabon is just the latest in a string of coups that have taken place in recent years and comes just a month after soldiers took control in Niger. On July 26, 2023, members of Niger’s presidential guard detained President Mohamed Bazoum inside his palace, declaring on national television that they were seizing power to address the “deteriorating security situation and bad governance.”
Abdourahamane Tiani, the commander of the presidential guard, was named the new head of state a few days later by the military junta.
The coup by the presidential elite force in Niger has been condemned by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Western nations, notably France, which has considerable interests there. Sanctions are being imposed by Western and African countries, including Nigeria, to force the coup leaders to hand power back to the president.
The leaders of ECOWAS have been in talks with the junta to reinstate constitutional order, noting that they will activate ‘standby forces’ if diplomacy fails.
Against the backdrop of the deliberations, the junta has severed ties with its former coloniser, France, and ordered the French ambassador, Sylvain Itte, to leave the country. Earlier this month, the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Country (CNSP), ended Niger’s military agreements with France and ordered its troops to leave by Friday, September 2. France has, however, refused to withdraw on the grounds that it does not recognize the authority of the military government; it reiterated its threat of supporting military invasion by ECOWAS, even as the regional bloc is “determined to bend backwards to accommodate diplomatic efforts.”
Niger’s military government reportedly cut off electricity and water supply to the French embassy in Niamey, the country’s capital, on Sunday, August 27, after the expiry of the 48-hours it gave the French ambassador, Itte, to leave the country.
The junta also warned Nigeriens against providing electricity, water, and food supplies to the French military base, warning that anyone caught doing so will be treated as “enemies of the sovereign people.”
Mass protests against French troops intensify in Niger as the deadline for the withdrawal of the French troops and ambassador approaches. The 1,500 troops-strong military base in Niamey has become a site of frequent demonstrations, with people demanding that Niger’s former coloniser withdraw its troops, waving the national flag of Niger, reportedly alongside those of the BRICS countries and the DPRK.
A similar protest was also held on Friday, August 25, hours after the military government, the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Country (CNSP), ordered the French ambassador out of Niger. Protesters raised anti-French slogans and threatened to invade the base if the troops did not leave Niger in a week.
A disturbing trend
The recent coups in Gabon and Niger highlight a disturbing trend in several West African countries: the resurgence of unconstitutional means to bring about regime change. In the last three years, there have been military takeovers in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali and Guinea.
In Burkina Faso, there were two coups in 2022; the first coup was executed in January by Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba who ousted President Roch Kabore citing the latter’s failure to contain violence by Islamist militants.
However, on September 30, 2022, Captain Ibrahim Traore seized power from Damiba to become the country’s new leader.
In Chad, the army seized control of the country in April 2021, after President Idriss Deby was killed in combat while visiting forces engaged in fighting rebels in the north. The president’s son, General Mahamat Idriss Deby, was named interim president, which contravenes Chadian law, where the speaker of parliament should have become president. The unlawful transfer of power sparked rioting in N’Djamena, the country’s capital, which the military eventually quashed with extreme force.
Likewise, in Mali, President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was overthrown in August 2020 by a gang of Malian colonels under the command of Assimi Goita. But following a clash between the coup leader and the interim president, retired colonel Bah Ndaw, the junta staged a second coup in May 2021, and Assimi Goita, who had been acting vice president in the meantime, was promoted to president.
In Guinea, President Alpha Conde was overthrown in September 2021 by he army’s special forces leader Colonel Mamady Doumbouya after the former altered the constitution in 2020 to circumvent restrictions that would have prohibited him from running for a third term, which led to severe unrest.
ECOWAS thereafter imposed sanctions on Doumbouya, the junta leaders, and relatives, rejecting the promise of a transition to democracy in three years apparently with little impact.
There have also been failed coup attempts in Guinea Bissau, The Gambia and the island nation of Sao Tome and Principe.
The recent coup d’etats span what has been called Africa’s coup belt: a line of six countries crossing 3,500 miles, from coast to coast, that has become the longest corridor of military rule on earth.
These forcible military interventions have so far aggravated the pattern of instability across Africa’s Sahel and jeopardises what has been a rare process of fairly steady democracy building in the region.
Some African coup statistics
Out of the 486 attempted or successful military coups executed globally since 1950, Africa accounts for the largest number with 214, of which at least 106 have been successful. Based on data compiled by American researchers Jonathan M. Powell and Clayton L. Thyne, at least 45 of the 54 nations across the African continent have experienced at least a single coup attempt since 1950.
Pundits believed that coups were becoming unfashionable in Africa by 2015 due to a reduction in their occurrences on the continent. Recent events, however, suggest that they are dangerously back in fashion in Africa, as some countries including Gabon, Niger, Guinea Bissau, Guinea, Mali, Chad, Sudan, and Burkina Faso, have experienced a series of successful and failed military takeovers over the last four years.
Coups don’t happen in a vacuum
The recent military coups, however, did not happen in a vacuum. Issues of corruption, insecurity, unemployment, and a sit-tight syndrome among Africa’s civilian and aging political class, have all contributed to the atmosphere of discontent that enabled the military intervention.
Several other reasons have been adduced for the prevalence of coups in Africa, including modernisation, cultural pluralism, soldiers’ greed and grievances, poor governance, corruption, autocracy, limited economic growth, and low income levels, among other factors.
Many of the discussions, however, have focused on internal triggers and factors, thus underestimating the pivotal role of foreign entities. While a few external factors, such as colonial heritage and the Cold War between the United States (US) and the Soviet Union, have been included in the causes of military coups in Africa, such discussions have not been convincingly presented.
The unfolding dynamics of the current crisis in Niger bear the distinct imprints of global power politics. There are reports of Russian involvement in the coup, with allegations pointing towards the participation of the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organisation.
The legacy of France, a formidable player in the region with its historical colonial clout, looms large in the surge of military coups seen across the former French colonies. The four recent countries subjected to coups all share a common Francophone heritage, and the coup leaders consistently attribute their actions to the ousted democratic governments’ perceived pro-French leanings. In the context of Niger, the military justified its actions by painting President Bazoum as a puppet manipulated by French interests.
Thus while the rising cases of military coups have been viewed by most as a threat to democracy, some pundits have interpreted the trend as a rebellion against French neocolonialism.
Niger, for instance, is part of the 14 West African countries that form what is known as the Franc Zone. These countries might have achieved political independence but are still economically enslaved thanks to a colonial pact that not only determines how these countries spend their own money but also ensures that France remains the main beneficiary of their natural resources.
Recall that former French colonies in West Africa were joined through a pact that forced them to deposit as much as 50 per cent of their foreign reserves into the French treasury. This money is held “in trust” by the French government to guarantee what is known as the CFA (Communauté Financière Africaine) franc currency used in these countries.
In essence, Paris determines economic policies for these countries – with France remaining the main beneficiary of these policies. In addition, France has the exclusive right to supply these countries with military equipment and to militarily intervene in them which explains why French troops are always the first on the ground when a Francophone African country erupts into conflict or political turmoil.
French military bases in countries such as Djibouti and Gabon also allow France to have a visible presence on the ground. Furthermore, the aid that France provides to African countries is spent not so much on development programmes, but on subsidising friendly governments’ armies. It is also given on the condition that recipient countries spend most of it on contracts with French companies.
Any African leader who has threatened to defy the pact finds himself either ousted in a coup or assassinated. For example, when Togo’s first president, Sylvanus Olympio, decided to use Togo’s own currency and to discontinue the CFA franc, he was assassinated by an army sergeant allegedly on the orders of some foreign influence.
When Mali’s first president, Modibo Keita, attempted to do the same, he was overthrown in a coup.
The changing face of military takeover
A stereotypical coup d’état involves the most senior members of the military (i.e., generals) overthrowing the government in a short, but potentially violent, incident that causes mass panic in the population. The most recent coups in Africa, however, differ in some key aspects from the coups that were seen on the continent in the past, especially during the immediate post-independence period.
The new model of coups has been led by slightly younger officers, they have been less violent, and in some cases, they have occurred – with popular support – against a background of political stagnation and intense security challenges.
The age of the coup leaders has been a remarkably consistent element of these most recent coups. With the exception of Sudan, the coup leaders have ranged in age from 34 to 41. They have also been lower in rank than most coup leaders (and have come mostly from special forces units), including two Colonels, a Lieutenant-Colonel, and a Captain. This growing dynamic is certainly not completely unprecedented: Jerry Rawlings was a 31-year old Flight-Lieutenant when he led his first coup attempt in Ghana, and Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo was a 37-year old lieutenant-colonel when he seized power in Equatorial Guinea. The latter example also highlights a potential negative implication of this element of the current wave of coups: the leaders may try to stay in power for a very long time.
Toxic consciousness or new nationalist push?
Beneath the wave of coups rocking the continent persists a subtext of Pan-Africanism. This is discernible, for instance, in neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso’s support to the Nigerien junta. The two countries that have experienced coups themselves in recent years are fully in support of the Nigerien coup leader, Abdourahamane Tchiani as are the people of Niger, who were seen applauding the coup leaders and even held a protest in support of them.
This is similar to what happened in Burkina Faso, when coup leaders promising radical change were welcomed and civilians were seen kissing the hands of soldiers loyal to coup leader Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba, who they believed would be much more effective than the ousted president in dealing with violent Islamic insurgents in the country.
In Guinea, the military takeover was viewed positively by citizens who were frustrated by President Alpha Cond’s scrapping of the two-term presidential limit, which allowed him to run for a third term in 2020.
Since 2020, the West African region has experienced several coups, all in former French colonies as anti-French sentiment grows in the region.
The common thread now running through French-speaking countries is their colonial history.
France, the former colonial ruler of all the countries that have experienced the recent coups, has directly or indirectly played a role in the running of their governments long after independence, in a bid to maintain its hold and interests in what is known as its pré carré (one’s own little corner).
In the wake of the recent coups, however, affected nations have erupted with anti-France protests to underscore their dissatisfaction with the latter’s perceived interference in their affairs.
Cameroonian academic, Prof Pascal Touoyem, ascribed the new nationalist surge to young, outspoken military officers reminiscent of the late African revolutionary, Thomas Sankara. For him, a new nationalist wind is blowing through the military barracks.
The slew of coups by the young military officers is being romanticised across the affected nations as the onset of a new wave of political consciousness and Pan-Africanism propagated by Sankara.
“We are witnessing the emergence, and even the rise to power, of sovereigntist armies that reflect the deep aspirations of the people. This is a democratisation that is taking place, but from below and for the silent majority,” said Prof Touoyem.
A Nigerian call to ruination
There is no gainsaying the rash of coup d’etats spreading through West Africa has triggered dread of a similar misadventure in Nigeria.
A casual visit to internet platforms, Facebook and Twitter, reveals the depth of disillusionment afflicting large swathes of the populace, mostly of the youth divide.
Many are blatantly calling for urgent military intervention, citing the declining purchasing power, skyrocketing inflation and unemployment as their reasons.
“What we are facing right now in Nigeria requires a military takeover. Let the military seize power. We don’t mind,” said Bimpe Atunri, a nurse. Corroborating her, Raphael Nduka, a stockbroker stated that with the current situation in the country, many won’t mind a coup.
“Life is hard generally. However, it has become harder to survive in Nigeria since the fuel subsidy was removed. Nobody eats three square meals these days. Times are hard and people are really suffering,” said Timothy Ojo, teacher, in a private chat with The Nation.
Those clamouring for a coup in Nigeria, he argued, are either those in their 20s and unfortunately are ignorant of the likely devastation that they are inviting on the nation. “We that are older should enlighten them about the horrors we went through during the civil war,” he said.
The military has been an important institution for protecting States from external threats. Military personnel can also fuel civil conflicts and undermine the stability of political regimes mostly in States with loose political control of the military.
In Africa, military institutions have, on one hand, helped to protect States from both internal and external threats, including local insurgencies. On the other hand, they have destabilised several political regimes through coup d’états.
Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has bemoaned what he called an “autocratic contagion” spreading across Africa at the moment. According to him, he is committed to working with other Heads of State in the continent to end the scourge and defend democracy. Tinubu stated this in his first response to the Wednesday coup in Gabon, according to a statement by his spokesperson, Ajuri Ngelale.
The Nigerian Defence Headquarters, on its part, has refuted viral social media claims suggesting that the Armed Forces of Nigeria (AFN) had been approached with a request to change the nation’s leadership through a military coup.
In a statement signed by the Director of Defence Information, Brigadier General Tukur Gusau, the armed forces assured Nigerians of their commitment to protect the nation’s democracy and their loyalty to His Excellency President Bola Tinubu.
The Defence Headquarters warned those propagating such misleading narratives to cease immediately or face legal consequences, cautioning that the military, in collaboration with other security agencies, is actively monitoring and will act against any such threats to national stability.
A recall to horror
The coup of January 15, 1966, marked a turning point in Nigeria’s history as it terminated the First Republic and initiated the crisis that culminated in the disastrous civil war from 1967 to 1970.
The actions and motivation of the principal actors have been the subject of spirited analysis and interpretation over the years. The coup was so complex that one needs to understand the political situation at the time to appreciate the reasons for the coup. After Nigeria gained independence from the United Kingdom, its domestic politics tried to emulate that of its former colonial master by adopting a Westminster-style parliamentary democracy.
But instead of the cultured debate and sophisticated party political culture of the UK, Nigeria’s politics fragmented on regional and ethnic lines, according to prominent historian, Max Siollun.
Due to the splitting of the country into three geopolitical regions, party politics (and political parties) took on the identity and ideology of each of the three regions. The northern region was represented by the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) whose motto of “one north, one people” gave a realistic and accurate assessment of its objectives. Southerners viewed the NPC as the party of the Hausa-Fulani. The western region’s dominant party was the Action Group (AG) while the dominant party in the eastern region was the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) which was controlled by the Igbos. The regional nature of these parties assured that none of them could govern Nigeria on its own and precipitated the immediate possibility of ethnic conflict.
The First Republic was bedevilled by acrimony because the Constitution created powerful political divisions that made compromises difficult.
Dissatisfied by the spate of political bickering and perceived corruption of the civilian leadership, in August 1965 a group of young, idealistic Army Majors: Emmanuel Ifeajuna, Timothy Onwuatuegwu, Chris Anuforo, Don Okafor, Humphrey Chukwuka, and Adewale Ademoyega began plotting a coup d’état against the incumbent Prime Minister Abubakar Balewa. The coup was planned because according to the officers, the men at the helm of affairs were running Nigeria aground with their corrupt ways. Ministers under them were living flamboyant lifestyles and looting public funds at the expense of ordinary citizens, they claimed.
But the Majors, led by Chukwuma Kaduna Nzegwu, apparently had no idea of how to govern the country apart from eliminating the politicians and a few military officers. Army commander Major-General Johnson Aguiyi-Ironsi suppressed the coup but seized power himself. Aguiyi-Ironsi’s solution to the failures of the 1947-1963 Constitution was the termination of federalism and introduction of a unitary system by Military Decree.
Most of his advisers in this unitary experiment were from his ethnic group. Also, he refused to put on trial the military coup plotters of January 15, 1966, who assassinated politicians and other military officers. Northerners interpreted the Major Nzegwu-led coup and Aguiyi-Ironsi’s intervention as an Igbo-led conspiracy to subjugate the north and impose Igbo domination.
Subsequently, there was widespread unrest before northern military officers led by Majors Murtala Mohammed, Theophilus Danjuma, and Martins Adamu terminated Major Aguiyi-Ironsi’s regime six months later and assassinated him.
Northern mobs attacked and killed Igbos living in their domain, and the latter fled south. Northerners living in the southeast were also killed in reprisal attacks. In the following year, the southeastern (Igbo) states united to form a new breakaway country called Biafra.
Although the army suppressed the attempt at secession after a brutal civil war, the bitterness remains more than 50 years later. While unaddressed grievances from 1966 lie at the heart of the Biafra movement’s resurgence through IPOB.
The recent calls for a military coup in Nigeria resonate jarringly on the internet and social media platforms as youths, many of whom were born several years after the country’s bloody coups and civil war era, bemoan harsh living conditions accentuated by fuel subsidy removal and the loss of their preferred candidate at the 2023 general elections.
This minute, the cult of digital citizenship fosters a supreme theme: that of the maleficent-woke youth. Social media expanded to fill and enrich the lacuna created by policy failure and misgovernance, substituting Nigeria’s bleak moon for a digitized dawn.
Call it science’s dark revenge or technology’s defiant stand against conservative norms. In the mix, Nigeria incinerates at the speed of blistering terabytes. Two planes of reality collide a la traditional versus new media; conservative ethicist versus deviant liberal. Nigeria erupts in primaeval chaos.
The intelligible persistently yields to the unintelligible and citizenship gets redefined as maleficent youths vengefully debase and defy society’s political class and arrogant hierarchs.
The digitally-woke youth is technology’s heroic personae and his cult runs where dissent rebounds. He has a fearless disposition and he romanticises the anticipated benefits of an urgent coup d’etat.
Someone would be kind enough to remind such youths perhaps of the misadventure that birthed Nigeria’s first military coup and a chain of subsequent coups and very bloody civil war.
From July 6, 1967, to January 15, 1970, Nigeria experienced a civil war popularly known all over the world as the Biafran War.
It all started on January 15, 1966, when mutinous soldiers led by Major Chukwuma Kaduna Nzeogwu and Emmanuel Ifeajuna killed 22 people including the Nigerian Prime Minister, many senior politicians and Army officers and their wives, and sentinels on protective duty.
The coup plotters attacked the cities of Kaduna, Ibadan, and Lagos while also blockading the Niger and Benue Rivers within a two-day timespan before being subdued.
During the two and half years of the war, there were about 100,000 overall military casualties, while between 500,000 and two million civilians died of starvation and battlefield injuries.
