I have lived through five major and one minor coup d’états in Nigeria. Back in the days, staging a coup in Africa was “easy” and follows one strategic pattern. In Nigeria, it involves four key institutions. Once the plotters takeover Radio Nigeria (FRCN), the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA), the Nigerian Telecommunications (NITEL), close the airspace, land and sea borders, the first and one of the most critical stage has been completed.
Marshall music will then permeate the airwaves; with this citizens know a coup has taken place. This would be followed by the coup speech, rounding up of key figures in the previous regime if it is a bloodless coup, or killing officials if it’s a bloody coup, would’ve taken place. I must add that it takes guts to plan a coup because the repercussion of a failed coup is death by firing squad.
But things have since changed; democracy has firmly taken root in most parts of the world as the best system of governance. Secondly, the information superhighway has been revolutionised beyond previous recognition with countless channels for the dissemination of information. Thirdly, people are more aware than they previously were following the breaking down of walls. The global village phenomenon is now the norm and you can watch events unfolding in other countries real-time.
So, my reckoning is that it would be suicidal for any group to attempt a coup in this age. This was my perception when I first heard of the now foiled coup in Turkey. I tweeted that I’m waiting to see how it will play out in this social media age where nothing can be hidden anymore.
Immediately I sent out the tweet, Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan – who ironically, is an outspoken critic of social media – turned to twitter as the coup unfolded, to make a statement “I call our nation to the airports and the squares to take ownership of our democracy and our national will.” He also retweeted posts from the Prime minister and the official presidency account condemning the coup.
This is the amazing power of social media and only the uninformed, stubborn or out rightly foolish would ignore such a brazen and ever present fact. Erdogan who was out of the capital Istanbul on vacation at the time of the coup also used what was hitherto considered an opposition tool, FaceTime video call, to addressed the country. The phone was held in front of the television camera where he called on the people to pour out into the streets and defend democracy.
Who convinced him to use Twitter and FaceTime video to have his voice heard at a time it mattered most? Maybe he will let us know in the next few weeks as things continue to unfold.
Since its establishment in 1923 from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire, this was the first time citizens would rise against the military. Dramatically, this time the coup crumbled quickly as key military commanders rallied behind Erdogan and popular support turned decisively against the coup plotters.
Why did the coup fail? The key events that turned the tide against the plotters were the failure to seize communication channels – or have their own social media strategy – and the failure to “neutralise” Prime Minister Binali Yildirim. Had the plotters managed to block off all means of communication, Yildirim may not have been able to get his message about “an event outside the chain of command” out. That message effectively isolated a lot of the plotters and galvanised government’s support base.
Also important was the fact that the police which arrested many of the coup plotters were well trained and adequately armed, providing an alternate avenue of force for the government along with loyal troops. As a result of these failures, four key elements of a coup – initiative, speed, surprise and confusion, were taken out of the hands of the plotters. When any one of these elements is gone, a coup fails.
Interestingly, Turkey has spent millions of dollars building up its filtering capacity to block specific sites and content, as well as amending its internet law to increase government’s control over online content.
At some point, citizens were jailed for “insulting” the president or releasing corruption details regarding his family on social media. It didn’t come as a surprise when in 2013, Erdogan reportedly described Twitter as a “menace to society.” “I am increasingly against the internet every day,” Erdogan told a delegation from the Committee to Protect Journalism in October 2014, “We will not leave this nation at the mercy of YouTube and Facebook. We will take all the necessary steps in the strongest way including barring social media.”
Will he have a rethink today and be bold to acknowledge how social media saved his regime? Perhaps, he might have secretly learnt a lesson or two from the Arab Spring.
I find Turkey an interesting case study. It has shown that Islam, democracy and modernity can be compatible. Prior to the emergence of Erdogan, it had successfully operated as a secular state following the vision of its founder, Kamal Ataturk. The army often steps in whenever it feels this position is about to be altered.
Give it to Erdogan, no Turkish politician has done as much as him to democratise, modernise and develop the country. But his drive to restore to public life core Islamic values and symbolisms, such as the wearing of hijab and beards and the ban on alcohol, which Kemal had banned seem not to go down well with some.
Though controversial, Erdogan is a dogged fighter who cut his teeth politically as mayor of Istanbul from 1994 to 1998. He was able to transform Istanbul from a bankrupt and decrepit city into a prosperous cosmopolitan metropole. Unfortunately, this has gradually transformed him into an autocrat who has little patience with opposition or contrary opinions.
What is it about Turkey that often makes coups attractive? One of the reasons behind the string of coups has to do with its system of government. The nation’s constitution leaves the military with the authority to “step in” when needed; it is also instructive to note that military leaders are not beholden to political leaders.
Over the years, and amid the many challenges facing the country, the military had recoiled into its shell and was not seen as a threat. Powerful generals became less accustomed to playing a dominant role after series of military coups. Though, during the first years of his reign, Erdogan often clashed with top commanders when they feel the thin line between secularity and a perceived theocratic state is being crossed.
But several years into the Erdogan era, the government began arresting and prosecuting hundreds of generals and admirals as part of wide-ranging investigations into alleged coup plots. Supporters argued Erdogan was the first Turkish leader to put the military in its place beneath the elected civilian leadership.
This produced fruit and by May 2016, the once frosty relationship between politicians and soldiers had transformed – the military’s top commander even attended the wedding of Erdogan’s daughter.
Coup aside, the Turkish government is today simultaneously battling two deadly terrorist organizations – ISIS and the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Just last month, the government accused ISIS of carrying out the deadly triple suicide bombing at Istanbul’s Ataturk International Airport.
Meanwhile, the 30-year guerrilla war between the Turkish state and Kurdish militants reignited, flaring across the predominantly Kurdish southeast of the country. The society is today widely polarized between people who love or loathe Erdogan. In this case, the country is almost evenly divided.
Two lessons to be learnt from this coup: the Social media has become indispensable in our societies. No nation can develop beyond the level at which her people think, and globally, political and economic leaders need to look at the good side of what technology generally has brought.
Secondly, the people matter: when people of all persuasions stood against it, they turned a dark night into a bright morning for Turkish democracy. Now that the people have defeated this coup attempt, the politicians should put the people first in everything they do. Nigerian politicians should learn this critical lesson.
