It a time our politicians and their legion of cheerleaders have, in the last few weeks, done little else than spar over inanities; when minders of the economy have long embarked on sabbatical, we must thank God that something, finally, is happening at the industrial front to inspire hope in the future of the country.I refer here to the news which filtered in at the weekend that the $9 billion,650,000 barrels of crude oil per day (bpd)Dangote Refinery willsoon commence operations. On a tour of the facilities at the weekend, Aliko Dangote, President of Dangote Group of companies had had told the crew from the CBN led by its governor, Godwin Emefiele that the long-awaited project will finally be delivered by April 2020. The fertilizer plant, he also said, will commence operation between April and May this year.
In a country where all things are never equal; where policies tend to change like the British weather and the science of forecasting reduced to something of a nightmare to the practitioners of the art, it must be something of a celebration that the project – conceivably the most ambitious one by a private investor on the continent is finally coming on stream.
To those who had long prayed for the reawakening to the 2007 folly – yours truly included –it comes as the moment of vindication. In July 2007, late President Umaru Yar’Adua, then mint-fresh in office, had caused to be refunded, the $721 million paid by Bluestar Oil Services Limited Consortium for the acquisition of 51 percent equity in the Port Harcourt and Kaduna refineries. Of course, the story of how the consortium promoted by Dangote emerged the preferred bidder/core investor for the plants at an open bid held at the behest of the departing Obasanjo administration in May 2007 is very muchin public domain.As the argument then went, it was bad enough that the Obasanjo administration thought little of selling a vital national patrimony to his “friends” and this for “peanuts”; that it happened on the eve of its departure from office was deemed the height of immorality!
It mattered little at the time that the two refineries were not only practically down and out but were effectively of no use to anyone!Majority of Nigerians, it seemed, had made up their minds that the status quo of nothing was infinitely better than the promise of afresh hands to inject new money to get the refineries up and running.And so with public anger sufficiently roused; andwith organized laboursuccessfully grounding the economy for four days in June 2007, the Yar’Adua administration, itself caught in the tango of legitimacy in the aftermath of highly flawed polls, was forced to cancel the exercise. Talk of cutting the nose to spite the face!
Now, we know better. Whereas the once-derided investor has since become the toast of everyone, the obverse side is a country so anaemic that the only reason it is still able to stand on its feet is that it manages to sell crude, unprocessed oil. At an average of $6 billion per year, the giant in the African sun has, in a little more than a decade, spent nearly $70 billion on fuel imports alone and still counting. And that is nothing compared to the billions spawned by the economy of rent and corruption inextricably linked with the fuel trade that has made the African giant a by-word in sleaze. As for the nation’s four refineries, which in the past decade has gulped millions of dollars of taxpayers funds,they have remained where they were in 2007 –scraps – despite endless promises of Turn Around Maintenances (TAMs); the federal government on its part, continues to sell the illusion that it would, somehow, get them up running even when those who know say the technology is obsolete.
Add to the scenario the rentier economy called subsidy under which the nation gets to import refined fuel only to sell below the cost price; or the more bizarre part – that the country actually spends a third of its entire earnings on crude to import refined products for its domestic uses – and this in a country that has neither an industrial capacity to boast of, nor a petrochemical complex on which to an anchor an industrial strategy, things can hardly get more confounding!
And someone is still wondering about the huge unemployment figures, the rising poverty and the spate of factory closures? Or the link between the route that the country willfully neglected to take in 2007 and the current mess that the country has found itself? Shouldn’t we then apologise to Dangote for the folly of 2007?
I do not pretend that Dangote refinery will transform the economy overnight. For an economy the size of Nigeria’s, that would be utterly misplaced. It is however a solid beginning. Think of the cartel of fuel importers not having to make a request for forex as they routinely do (that is $6 billion off the CBN table); in place of that, there is a potential for additional $5.5 billionto be generated annually through exports of the refined petroleum products, fertiliser and petro-chemicals; think of the countless direct and indirect jobs to be created and the multiple linkages and spin-offs in small and medium enterprises that would follow in the coming months. That is what I call progress.
Of course, I have heard some say that that establishing a refinery is no rocket science. Very true. But then, didn’t they say also that talk is cheap? If in doubt, try sourcing for N9 billion – not $9 billion! Yeah? Only when one indulges in the “folly” of investing same in a process business with a long gestation period as against cash and carry business of buying and selling will one begin to appreciate the difference. This is where Dangote excels them all!
For me, I can only offer my sincere heartfelt prayers to the likes of Aliko Dangote. May their dream – as indeed the hopes of our hapless country, find fulfilment. If only for the sake of our leadership-challenged country, I pray that the tribe of Dangotes increase.