In line with relevant provisions of the Constitution and the Electoral Act, the Independent National Electoral Commission has fixed Saturday, November 16, 2024, for the governorship election in Ondo state, barely two months after the Edo governorship election. Moreover, according to INEC, party primaries will be held in Ondo state from April 6-27, 2024. It is left to each political party to choose a date within this period for the conduct of its primaries.
A zoning convention, by which the governorship is rotated among the three Senatorial Districts, emerged by chance rather than by design. It became clear in 2016 that the first three Governors of the state since 1999 had come from one or the other of the three Senatorial Districts in the following sequence: Chief Adebayo Adefarati (North), 1999-2003; Dr. Olusegun Agagu, (South), 2003-2009; and Dr. Olusegun Mimiko (Centre), 2009-2016. Incidentally, too, each of these Governors chose a Deputy from the Senatorial District that produced his successor, although none of their Deputies ever became Governor. Thus, Adefarati chose Afolabi Iyantan from the South; Agagu chose Oluwatuyi from the Centre, and Mimiko chose Olanusi and later xxx, both from the North.
It was the desire to repeat this sequence that led the All Progressives Congress to zone the governorship to the Northern Senatorial District in 2016. This led to the candidacy and eventual election of Rotimi Odunayo Akeredolu, SAN (North) as the Governor in 2016 and his reelection in 2020. Akeredolu’s second term was terminated by death, after a protracted illness, and his Deputy, Lucky Orimisan Aiyedatiwa (from the South) was sworn in on Wednesday, December 27, 2023, to complete Akeredolu’s term.
By the original rotational sequence of North-South-Centre, it is now the turn of the South to produce a candidate, the North having done so twice. By convention, it will be the turn of the Centre again after the South has had its second chance. With the major aspirants for this year’e election coming from the South, it would now appear that the zoning issue has resolved itself once again.
The erstwhile Deputy Governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa, now Governor on account of his boss’s death, is doubly advantaged to run this year. First, he hails from the South and, therefore, meets the zoning requirement. Second, he is the incumbent Governor and can take advantage of his present position. Accordingly, as recently as Monday, January 22, 2023, newspaper and social media reports hinted at Aiyedatiwa’s approach to the appropriation of state funds to further his political ambition (see APC Primary: Aiyedatiwa begins consultations, The Nation, January 23, 2024).
In the meantime, the APC party leaders have laid two precedents that should guide the primary election of its flag bearer in Ondo state. First, the party has been consistent in providing a level playing field for all aspirants, by not giving automatic ticket to anyone. Thus, in 2023, the party did not provide automatic ticket to David Lyon, who was declared the Governor-elect of Bayelsa state in 2019, but whose election was invalidated by the Supreme Court on the eve of his inauguration. Similarly, even where Governor Uzodima of Imo state had no contestant, he was still made to go through a primary election before he was declared the party’s flag bearer.
It is against this background that the declaration by Felix Morka, the APC spokesperson, should be understood, when he said on January 18, 2024, that the APC has ruled out an automatic ticket for Aiyedatiwa, Governor of Ondo state in the 2024 election. Morka’s statement notwithstanding, Aiyedatiwa told a large group of selected party stakeholders on Monday, January 22, 2023, that “there is no vacancy in Alagbaka” that is, the Ondo state Government House.
The second guiding precedent established by the APC leadership is the mode of primary elections. It has now become standard practice to hold direct (also known as open) primaries for the election of the party’s flag bearer in governorship elections. Accordingly, direct primaries were employed in the off-season primaries in Ekiti and Osun in 2022 as well as in Imo, Kogi, and Bayelsa in 2023. Even in Imo, where Governor Uzodimma was the sole contestant, a direct primary was still held.
These two precedents have cleared the stage for the Ondo governorship primary contest in April this year. Already, many potential aspirants, mostly from the Southern Senatorial District, are lining up for the contest. It is as yet unclear how many contestants will enter the fray. However, three things are clear about Ondo state that should attract the serious attention of APC party leaders and the electoral umpires.
First, Ondo citizens are highly politically conscious. As a result, they are willing to fight back if they felt that their mandate was stolen. This happened in the elections of the early 1960s, in 1983, and in 2007. In each case, Ondo state voters fought back, and won their stolen mandate, where possible.
A second characteristic of the state is its progressive political leaning. As part of the old Western Region, Ondo state citizens aligned with Chief Obafemi Awolowo and his progressive political party, the Action Group. After Chief Awolowo’s death, the mantle fell on Chief Michael Adekunle Ajasin, also a progressive and a long-term ally of Chief Awolowo. Today, their political hero is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, also a progressive, for whom they voted overwhelmingly during the last presidential election. That’s why his recent intervention in the governance crisis in the state was met with complete compliance.
Third, the state is still in mourning over the loss of their Governor, Oluwarotimi Odunayo Akeredolu, SAN, who is being buried on Friday, February 23, 2024, just about two months before the primary election. It is very important to remember him as we enter this election season. His memory should not be so quickly replaced with electoral machinations.
